Meta Platforms (META)


Market Price (8/1/2026): $553.51 | Market Cap: $1.4 TrilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services

Meta Platforms (META)


Market Price (8/1/2026): $553.51
Market Cap: $1.4 Tril
Sector: Communication Services
Industry: Interactive Media & Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.2%

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%

Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 38%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 130 Bil, FCF LTM is 41 Bil

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 66 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Social Media & Creator Economy, Digital Advertising, and Metaverse & Immersive Technologies. Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -17%

Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.2x

Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%

Key risks
META key risks include [1] antitrust litigation threatening the forced divestiture of key assets like Instagram and WhatsApp, Show more.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.2%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%
2 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 38%
3 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 130 Bil, FCF LTM is 41 Bil
4 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 66 Bil
5 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
6 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Social Media & Creator Economy, Digital Advertising, and Metaverse & Immersive Technologies. Show more.
7 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -17%
8 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.2x
9 Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
10 Key risks
META key risks include [1] antitrust litigation threatening the forced divestiture of key assets like Instagram and WhatsApp, Show more.

META in ETFs

Weight = META's share of each fund

SPY2.0%
VOO1.9%
IVV1.8%
VTI1.7%
ITOT1.8%
QQQ3.0%
QQQM3.0%
IWB1.9%
+41 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 7/31/2026

Meta Platforms (META) stock has lost about 10% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Meta Platforms reported a significant earnings per share (EPS) miss for fiscal Q2 2026, which ended June 30, 2026. The company announced an EPS of $6.18, falling short of the consensus estimate of $7.19 by $1.01. This marked a 14% shortfall and ended a six-quarter streak of EPS beats. Additionally, net income declined by 14% year-over-year to $15.85 billion from $18.34 billion, and operating income fell by 8%.

2. The company increased its capital expenditure (capex) guidance for artificial intelligence (AI) investments, leading to investor concerns about profitability and free cash flow. Meta narrowed its 2026 capex outlook to a range of $130 billion to $145 billion, with the majority designated for AI infrastructure. This significant spending resulted in a 91% drop in free cash flow to $784 million for fiscal Q2 2026, compared to $8.55 billion in the prior year. Operating margins also compressed to 31% from 43% in fiscal Q2 2025.

Show more
Updated on 7/31/2026

Meta Platforms (META) stock has lost about 10% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Meta Platforms reported a significant earnings per share (EPS) miss for fiscal Q2 2026, which ended June 30, 2026. The company announced an EPS of $6.18, falling short of the consensus estimate of $7.19 by $1.01. This marked a 14% shortfall and ended a six-quarter streak of EPS beats. Additionally, net income declined by 14% year-over-year to $15.85 billion from $18.34 billion, and operating income fell by 8%.

2. The company increased its capital expenditure (capex) guidance for artificial intelligence (AI) investments, leading to investor concerns about profitability and free cash flow. Meta narrowed its 2026 capex outlook to a range of $130 billion to $145 billion, with the majority designated for AI infrastructure. This significant spending resulted in a 91% drop in free cash flow to $784 million for fiscal Q2 2026, compared to $8.55 billion in the prior year. Operating margins also compressed to 31% from 43% in fiscal Q2 2025.

3. Meta incurred substantial one-time charges related to legal proceedings and severance costs in fiscal Q2 2026. Total costs and expenses surged 55% year-over-year to $42.03 billion. This included $2.40 billion in legal charges and an additional $1.18 billion in severance expenses linked to workforce reductions initiated in May 2026. Management indicated that without these combined charges of $3.58 billion, operating income would have increased by approximately 9% year-over-year.

4. Heightened regulatory scrutiny from the European Commission regarding Meta's platform design raised concerns about potential operational changes and fines. On July 25, 2026, the European Commission issued preliminary findings that Meta's Facebook and Instagram violate the EU's Digital Services Act by using design features that encourage excessive user engagement, particularly among children and teenagers. Regulators suggested Meta should disable "addictive features" like autoplay and infinite scrolling by default, and introduce more effective screen-time breaks. The company also noted ongoing youth-related trials in the U.S. that could result in material losses.

5. Insiders at Meta Platforms engaged in significant selling activity during the period. Over the three months leading up to July 29, 2026, insider sales amounted to $24.8 million, indicating cautious sentiment among company insiders.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -8.9% change in META stock from 4/30/2026 to 7/31/2026 was primarily driven by a -9.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)43020267312026Change
Stock Price ($)611.34556.71-8.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)214,962228,2476.2%
Net Income Margin (%)32.8%29.8%-9.1%
P/E Multiple21.920.8-5.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2,5342,543-0.4%
Cumulative Contribution-8.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2026 to 7/31/2026
ReturnCorrelation
META-8.9% 
Market (SPY)3.9%30.6%
Sector (XLC)-7.1%67.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The -22.2% change in META stock from 1/31/2026 to 7/31/2026 was primarily driven by a -30.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120267312026Change
Stock Price ($)715.22556.71-22.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)200,965228,24713.6%
Net Income Margin (%)30.1%29.8%-0.8%
P/E Multiple29.920.8-30.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2,5242,543-0.7%
Cumulative Contribution-22.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2026 to 7/31/2026
ReturnCorrelation
META-22.2% 
Market (SPY)8.3%48.1%
Sector (XLC)-9.6%65.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The -27.8% change in META stock from 7/31/2025 to 7/31/2026 was primarily driven by a -25.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)73120257312026Change
Stock Price ($)770.91556.71-27.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)178,804228,24727.7%
Net Income Margin (%)40.0%29.8%-25.4%
P/E Multiple27.120.8-23.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2,5182,543-1.0%
Cumulative Contribution-27.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 7/31/2026
ReturnCorrelation
META-27.8% 
Market (SPY)19.2%48.3%
Sector (XLC)1.8%66.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The 76.3% change in META stock from 7/31/2023 to 7/31/2026 was primarily driven by a 89.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)73120237312026Change
Stock Price ($)315.83556.7176.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)120,523228,24789.4%
Net Income Margin (%)18.7%29.8%59.5%
P/E Multiple36.020.8-42.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2,5682,5431.0%
Cumulative Contribution76.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2023 to 7/31/2026
ReturnCorrelation
META76.3% 
Market (SPY)68.9%59.4%
Sector (XLC)62.3%74.6%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
META Return23%-64%194%66%13%-18%99%
Peers Return14%-46%68%7%10%-9%10%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%9%98%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
META Win Rate67%33%92%67%42%43% 
Peers Win Rate58%30%68%57%53%43% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%43% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
META Max Drawdown-20%-74%-13%-18%-34%-29% 
Peers Max Drawdown-28%-54%-23%-29%-33%-33% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, SNAP, PINS. See META Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/31/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventMETAS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-31.1%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven45.1%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven64 days79 days
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-15.2%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven17.9%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven21 days18 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-71.1%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven245.7%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven389 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-32.9%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven49.0%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven65 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-23.6%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven30.9%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven38 days105 days
2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff
  % Loss-11.0%-3.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven12.3%3.9%
  Time to Breakeven25 days6 days

Compare to GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, SNAP, PINS

In The Past

Meta Platforms's stock fell -31.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 45.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventMETAS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-31.1%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven45.1%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven64 days79 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-71.1%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven245.7%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven389 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-32.9%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven49.0%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven65 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-23.6%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven30.9%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven38 days105 days

Compare to GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, SNAP, PINS

In The Past

Meta Platforms's stock fell -31.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 45.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Meta Platforms (META)

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) is a global technology company dedicated to connecting people worldwide through its suite of digital products. Its core business operates under the Family of Apps segment, which includes highly popular social media and messaging platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, and WhatsApp. These applications enable billions of users across mobile devices, personal computers, and in-home devices to share photos and videos, communicate via messages and calls, discover content, and engage with friends, family, and businesses globally.

Beyond its established social networks, Meta is also significantly investing in the future of digital interaction through its Reality Labs segment. This division focuses on developing augmented and virtual reality (AR/VR) related products, encompassing virtual reality hardware, software, and content. The aim of Reality Labs is to create immersive experiences that enhance connection, positioning Meta as a leader in building foundational technologies for the metaverse.

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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Meta Platforms:

  • Meta is like Google for social networking and communication.
  • Meta is like Apple for virtual reality hardware and experiences.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Facebook: A social networking platform enabling sharing, discovery, and connection among users.
  • Instagram: A social media platform primarily for sharing photos, videos, and private messages.
  • Messenger: A messaging application facilitating connections with friends, family, groups, and businesses.
  • WhatsApp: A secure messaging application used for private communication and transactions by individuals and businesses.
  • Augmented and Virtual Reality (AR/VR) Products: Hardware, software, and content designed to create immersive experiences that foster connection.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Meta Platforms primarily serves individuals and businesses leveraging its platforms to connect with individuals. Based on the provided company description, its major customers can be categorized as follows:

  1. General Social Media Users: This category includes individuals worldwide who utilize Meta's Family of Apps such as Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, and WhatsApp to connect with friends and family, share content, discover interests, and engage in social interactions.
  2. Virtual Reality & Augmented Reality Consumers: These are individuals who purchase and engage with products from Meta's Reality Labs segment, including virtual reality hardware (e.g., headsets), software, and content, to experience immersive virtual and augmented environments.
  3. Small Businesses and Entrepreneurs: This category encompasses businesses and individual entrepreneurs who leverage Meta's platforms, particularly Messenger and WhatsApp, for communication, customer engagement, and private transactions with their own customers. They also utilize features like Instagram Shops to conduct e-commerce.

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  • Qualcomm (QCOM)
  • Intel (INTC)
  • AMD (AMD)
  • Nvidia (NVDA)
  • Arista Networks (ANET)

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Mark Zuckerberg, Founder, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Mark Zuckerberg is the founder, chairman, and CEO of Meta, which he originally founded as Facebook in 2004. He is responsible for setting the company's overall direction and product strategy. Zuckerberg studied computer science at Harvard University before dropping out to focus on the company's growth. In his early life, he developed programs like "ZuckNet" at age twelve and a music player called "Synapse Media Player" in high school, which used machine learning to learn user habits. He is also the co-CEO of the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative, a philanthropic organization.

Susan Li, Chief Financial Officer

Susan Li is the chief financial officer at Meta, a role she assumed in 2022. She leads the finance and facilities teams and is instrumental in developing and implementing Meta's financial strategy. Li joined Facebook (now Meta) in 2008, initially focusing on finance and business planning, and played a significant role in projects including revenue planning and the company's IPO. Before joining Meta, she worked as an investment banking analyst at Morgan Stanley from 2005 to 2008. Born in China, she immigrated to the U.S. at age two, entered high school at 11, and college at 15, starting her professional career at Morgan Stanley at 19.

Javier Olivan, Chief Operating Officer

Javier Olivan serves as Chief Operating Officer at Meta, a position he took in August 2022, succeeding Sheryl Sandberg. He oversees the company's business teams, product infrastructure, and operational strategy across all Meta apps. Olivan joined Facebook's growth team in 2007. Prior to Meta, he worked as a research and development engineer at Siemens and later for NTT Data, and was a product manager at Siemens Mobile. He holds an MBA from Stanford University and master's degrees in electrical and industrial engineering from the University of Navarra.

Andrew Bosworth, Chief Technology Officer

Andrew "Boz" Bosworth is Meta's Chief Technology Officer and leads the Reality Labs division, a role he assumed in January 2022. He joined Facebook in 2006 as one of its first engineers, where he helped develop foundational features like the News Feed and early anti-abuse systems. Bosworth also co-invented Messenger and Groups. He met Mark Zuckerberg at Harvard University, where he was a teaching assistant in an artificial intelligence class, and later worked as a developer for Microsoft Visio before joining Facebook.

Chris Cox, Chief Product Officer

Chris Cox is the Chief Product Officer at Meta, responsible for leading its apps and technologies. He joined Facebook in 2005 as one of its initial software engineers and was instrumental in building the first versions of key Facebook features, including the News Feed. Cox has held various executive roles, including director of human resources and vice president of product, before being promoted to Chief Product Officer in 2014, and again in 2020. He studied symbolic systems with a concentration in artificial intelligence at Stanford University.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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Key Risks to Meta Platforms (META)

  1. Regulatory and Antitrust Scrutiny: Meta Platforms faces significant and ongoing regulatory pressure and antitrust investigations globally. This risk stems from its market dominance in social networking, its data privacy practices, and its past acquisitions (e.g., Instagram, WhatsApp). Governments and regulatory bodies worldwide are scrutinizing Meta's business practices, content moderation policies, and potential anti-competitive behavior. Such scrutiny could lead to substantial fines, forced divestitures of key assets, restrictions on future acquisitions, or changes to its operating model, all of which could materially impact its financial performance and strategic flexibility.
  2. Intense Competition for User Engagement and Advertising Revenue: Meta's core business relies heavily on maintaining a large, engaged user base across its Family of Apps (Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp) to attract advertisers. The company faces fierce competition from established social media platforms, emerging rivals, and new digital services, particularly for younger audiences. The rise of platforms like TikTok, which specializes in short-form video content, directly competes for user attention and advertising spending, potentially leading to declining engagement or slower user growth on Meta's platforms.
  3. Dependence on Advertising Revenue and Impact of Platform Changes: Meta's financial success is overwhelmingly reliant on advertising revenue generated from its Family of Apps segment. This dependence makes the company vulnerable to shifts in advertiser spending, economic downturns, and changes to third-party platform policies. For instance, Apple's App Tracking Transparency (ATT) framework significantly impacted Meta's ability to target ads effectively and measure campaign performance, leading to substantial revenue losses. Similar future policy changes by operating system providers or web browsers could further restrict Meta's data collection and targeting capabilities, directly affecting its primary revenue source. Additionally, the substantial and ongoing investments in the Reality Labs segment, which is currently generating significant operating losses, place further pressure on the profitability of the advertising business.
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1. **Apple's entry into the high-end mixed reality market with Vision Pro:** This directly competes with Meta's Reality Labs segment, particularly its virtual and augmented reality hardware and software initiatives. Apple's strong ecosystem, brand loyalty, and technological capabilities pose a significant threat to Meta's ambitions in the metaverse space, similar to how the iPhone disrupted Research in Motion's BlackBerry.

2. **Continued market share gains and innovation from TikTok:** While not a new entrant, TikTok's sustained and growing dominance in short-form video content and user engagement, especially among younger demographics, continues to pose a significant competitive threat to Meta's Family of Apps, particularly Instagram and Facebook. Its innovative recommendation algorithms and content formats force Meta to constantly adapt and develop competing features like Reels, diverting resources and challenging its core user base and advertising revenue.

3. **Platform policy changes by operating system providers (e.g., Apple's App Tracking Transparency):** Changes to privacy policies and data tracking restrictions imposed by powerful platform owners like Apple (and potentially Google) significantly impact Meta's ability to collect data for targeted advertising across its Family of Apps. This directly threatens its primary revenue model, forcing Meta to re-architect its advertising technology and potentially diminishing its ad effectiveness, which could lead to lower ad spend from advertisers.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Meta Platforms (symbol: META) operates in several large addressable markets globally through its Family of Apps and Reality Labs segments.

Family of Apps

  • The global social media market was valued at approximately USD 238.56 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 499.04 billion by 2030. Other estimates place the global social media market size at USD 218.03 billion in 2023, anticipated to exceed USD 815.78 billion by 2033. Furthermore, the social networking market is expected to increase from USD 180.5 billion in 2025 to USD 411.27 billion by 2031.
  • The global instant messaging app market was valued at USD 28.62 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 47.51 billion by 2034. Another estimate indicates the global instant messaging app market was valued at US$ 28.62 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach US$ 40.22 billion by 2032. Separately, the global messaging platform market was estimated at USD 98.7 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 218.4 billion by 2034.

Reality Labs

  • The global augmented reality (AR) market was valued at USD 77.30 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 1,127.94 billion by 2032. Other reports show the worldwide Augmented Reality (AR) market size valued at US$35.8 billion in 2024, projected to grow to US$233.3 billion by 2030. Additionally, the global AR market size was estimated at USD 120.21 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 1,050.56 billion by 2033.
  • The global virtual reality (VR) market was valued at approximately USD 44.4 billion. It was estimated at USD 36.13 billion in 2024 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 284.04 billion by 2034. Another source states the global virtual reality (VR) market size was valued at USD 20.83 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 171.33 billion by 2034.
  • The global metaverse market size was valued at USD 1,273.58 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow from USD 2,114.25 billion in 2026 to USD 10,808.57 billion by 2034. Another estimate suggests the global metaverse market size was valued at USD 180.8 billion in 2025 and is estimated to reach USD 2,609.5 billion by 2034. Additionally, the global metaverse market size was estimated at USD 105,396.5 million (approximately USD 105.40 billion) in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 936,574.7 million (approximately USD 936.57 billion) by 2030.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Meta Platforms (META) over the next 2-3 years:

Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Meta Platforms (META)

  1. AI Integration and Enhanced Ad Performance in Family of Apps: Meta is deeply integrating Artificial Intelligence (AI) across its core applications, including Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, and WhatsApp, to improve user experience and create new avenues for monetization. AI-powered ad optimization systems are crucial for driving higher engagement, extending session times, and increasing monetizable content per user by more effectively matching commercial intent with advertising content. This strategy aims to boost both ad impressions and the average price per ad.
  2. Monetization of WhatsApp and Growth of Threads: The company is actively working to monetize WhatsApp, a platform with significant untapped potential, particularly through its WhatsApp Business services. Additionally, Threads, Meta's newer platform, has rapidly gained a substantial user base and is expanding its advertising offerings, thereby opening up new revenue streams.
  3. Expansion of Reality Labs with Wearables and Metaverse Advancement: Meta is making substantial long-term investments in its Reality Labs segment, with a strategic focus on advancing the metaverse and developing next-generation virtual reality (VR) and mixed reality (MR) devices and social platforms. While this segment currently incurs significant losses, it is considered a foundational element for Meta's future growth, with a specific emphasis on "glasses and wearables." For instance, sales of Ray-Ban Meta AI glasses have more than tripled.
  4. International Advertising Revenue Growth and User Base Expansion: Meta continues to see robust growth in advertising revenue from international markets, with notable year-over-year increases in regions such as Rest of World, Asia Pacific, and Europe. The company's strategy involves expanding into new international markets and tailoring its offerings to local preferences, which is expected to broaden its user base and revenue potential. Increasing user engagement across established platforms like Instagram and Facebook, along with the development and scaling of new products like Threads and Meta AI, is vital for attracting new advertisers and maintaining a competitive edge. Instagram is highlighted as a fast-growing revenue driver, benefiting from strong user engagement through features like Reels and improved content recommendations.

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Share Repurchases

  • Meta Platforms repurchased $20.03 billion in shares during 2023.
  • In February 2024, Meta authorized an additional $50 billion for share repurchases.
  • For the full year 2025, Meta Platforms repurchased $26.26 billion of its Class A common stock.

Share Issuance

  • Meta's shares outstanding have been declining annually, with a 1.53% decrease in 2025 to 2.574 billion shares, and a 0.57% decrease in 2024 to 2.614 billion shares, reflecting the impact of share repurchases.

Outbound Investments

  • Meta has pursued an aggressive acquisition strategy since 2020, focusing on virtual reality (VR), augmented reality (AR), and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies.
  • Notable acquisitions include Unit 2 Games in 2021 for game creation, presize.ai and Luxexcel in 2022 for body scanning technology and 3D printing optical components respectively, and Moltbook in 2025 as an AI networking platform.
  • Meta's long-term investments increased significantly in 2025, reaching $27.524 billion, a 353.44% increase from 2024.

Capital Expenditures

  • Meta's capital expenditures were $27.266 billion in 2023, $37.256 billion in 2024, and $72.22 billion for the full year 2025.
  • The company anticipates its 2026 capital expenditures to be in the range of $115-135 billion.
  • These capital expenditures are primarily focused on expanding data center and GPU capacity to support Meta Superintelligence Labs efforts and the core business's AI initiatives.

Better Bets vs. Meta Platforms (META)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

METAGOOGLAMZNMSFTSNAPPINSMedian
NameMeta Pla.Alphabet Amazon.c.MicrosoftSnap Pinterest 
Mkt Price556.71356.13271.58464.724.6924.01313.86
Mkt Cap1,415.74,327.32,924.63,451.07.915.32,170.2
Rev LTM228,247445,867775,680331,8396,0974,374280,043
Op Inc LTM86,927147,62893,712155,237-41332290,320
FCF LTM40,97653,273-11,62566,9876091,20721,092
FCF 3Y Avg46,95860,26316,73270,89029197631,845
CFO LTM130,301185,675161,403182,9358311,249145,852
CFO 3Y Avg103,674141,481130,164145,8824971,002116,919

Growth & Margins

METAGOOGLAMZNMSFTSNAPPINSMedian
NameMeta Pla.Alphabet Amazon.c.MicrosoftSnap Pinterest 
Rev Chg LTM27.7%20.1%15.8%17.8%10.3%16.3%17.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg23.8%15.5%13.0%16.1%10.5%15.6%15.6%
Rev Chg Q28.0%24.2%19.6%17.7%12.1%17.8%18.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM6.2%5.5%4.4%4.3%2.8%3.6%4.3%
Op Inc Chg LTM10.4%21.6%23.0%20.8%36.3%62.1%22.3%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg49.8%25.6%90.0%20.6%32.4%131.1%41.1%
Op Mgn LTM38.1%33.1%12.1%46.8%-6.8%7.4%22.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg40.5%31.9%10.8%45.7%-15.6%4.9%21.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-3.1%0.4%0.6%-0.0%2.2%-0.2%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM57.1%41.6%20.8%55.1%13.6%28.5%35.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg55.6%36.5%18.9%50.6%8.7%26.3%31.4%
FCF/Rev LTM18.0%11.9%-1.5%20.2%10.0%27.6%15.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg26.4%16.1%2.8%25.3%4.9%25.7%20.7%

Valuation

METAGOOGLAMZNMSFTSNAPPINSMedian
NameMeta Pla.Alphabet Amazon.c.MicrosoftSnap Pinterest 
Mkt Cap1,415.74,327.32,924.63,451.07.915.32,170.2
P/S6.29.73.810.41.33.55.0
P/Op Inc16.329.331.222.2-19.247.425.8
P/EBIT15.814.416.420.4-29.347.416.1
P/E20.817.721.625.8-19.345.721.2
P/CFO10.923.318.118.99.512.215.2
Total Yield5.2%5.9%4.6%4.6%-5.2%2.2%4.6%
Dividend Yield0.4%0.2%0.0%0.8%0.0%0.0%0.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.2%2.4%0.8%2.2%3.3%5.2%2.8%
D/E0.10.00.10.00.50.10.1
Net D/E0.0-0.00.0-0.00.2-0.00.0

Returns

METAGOOGLAMZNMSFTSNAPPINSMedian
NameMeta Pla.Alphabet Amazon.c.MicrosoftSnap Pinterest 
1M Rtn-9.2%-1.4%12.4%20.9%-1.3%9.7%4.2%
3M Rtn-8.5%-7.6%1.2%12.4%-25.4%18.7%-3.2%
6M Rtn-22.2%5.5%13.5%8.5%-32.3%8.5%7.0%
12M Rtn-27.8%86.1%16.0%-12.2%-50.3%-37.8%-20.0%
3Y Rtn74.0%173.1%106.2%41.4%-58.4%-17.1%57.7%
1M Excs Rtn-9.3%-1.5%12.3%20.8%-1.3%9.6%4.1%
3M Excs Rtn-12.8%-11.3%-1.4%10.3%-26.6%18.2%-6.4%
6M Excs Rtn-31.9%-2.0%4.9%0.2%-42.7%-0.0%-1.0%
12M Excs Rtn-37.4%64.0%0.3%-26.4%-67.4%-55.0%-31.9%
3Y Excs Rtn24.1%113.9%47.9%-23.2%-120.3%-77.3%0.5%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Family of Apps198,759162,355133,006114,450115,655
Reality Labs2,2072,1461,8962,1592,274
Total200,966164,501134,902116,609117,929


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Family of Apps102,46987,10962,87142,66156,946
Reality Labs-19,193-17,729-16,120-13,717-10,193
Total83,27669,38046,75128,94446,753


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$556.71 
Market Cap ($ Bil)1,415.7 
First Trading Date05/18/2012 
Distance from 52W High-29.3% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$601.99$633.58
DMA Trenddowndown
Distance from DMA-7.5%-12.1%
 3M1YR
Volatility45.1%38.2%
Downside Capture98.64159.29
Upside Capture43.3189.52
Correlation (SPY)29.5%44.9%
META Betas & Captures as of 7/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.821.131.011.431.401.44
Up Beta-3.140.520.631.471.551.51
Down Beta2.092.012.162.061.911.45
Up Capture150%56%38%76%85%281%
Bmk +ve Days11223567138427
Stock +ve Days8162860123389
Down Capture163%129%99%147%126%108%
Bmk -ve Days11212859114326
Stock -ve Days14273566129363

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with META
META-19.7%39.8%-0.46-
Sector ETF (XLC)2.7%14.8%-0.0365.0%
Equity (SPY)18.8%12.9%1.0745.2%
Gold (GLD)23.6%28.1%0.7413.5%
Commodities (DBC)30.2%19.7%1.22-10.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)13.7%13.9%0.6910.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-44.8%42.9%-1.2617.7%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with META
META8.7%44.6%0.33-
Sector ETF (XLC)6.4%20.9%0.2281.0%
Equity (SPY)12.6%17.1%0.5660.9%
Gold (GLD)17.1%18.5%0.755.8%
Commodities (DBC)9.0%19.5%0.353.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.5%18.9%0.0331.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)14.2%53.3%0.4522.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with META
META16.6%39.1%0.52-
Sector ETF (XLC)8.9%22.2%0.4581.1%
Equity (SPY)15.0%17.9%0.7160.9%
Gold (GLD)11.3%16.1%0.576.3%
Commodities (DBC)7.3%18.0%0.3212.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.9%20.7%0.2034.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)58.2%66.2%0.9816.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date7152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity37.8 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 63020269.7%
Average Daily Volume23.6 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.6 days
Basic Shares Quantity2,543.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares1.5%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 8/1/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/29/2026-8.0%  
4/29/2026-8.6%-8.4%-5.5%
1/28/202610.4%0.0%-3.1%
10/29/2025-11.3%-15.4%-14.7%
7/30/202511.3%11.0%8.0%
4/30/20254.2%8.7%17.9%
1/29/20251.6%4.2%-1.2%
10/30/2024-4.1%-3.3%-3.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111410
# Negative13913
Median Positive10.4%5.1%11.2%
Median Negative-6.3%-8.4%-4.0%
Max Positive23.3%27.7%26.3%
Max Negative-26.4%-30.3%-38.1%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/29/2026-8.0%  
4/29/2026-8.6%-8.4%-5.5%
1/28/202610.4%0.0%-3.1%
10/29/2025-11.3%-15.4%-14.7%
7/30/202511.3%11.0%8.0%
4/30/20254.2%8.7%17.9%
1/29/20251.6%4.2%-1.2%
10/30/2024-4.1%-3.3%-3.0%
7/31/20244.8%3.0%9.1%
4/24/2024-10.6%-11.0%-5.6%
2/1/202420.3%19.1%26.3%
10/25/2023-3.7%4.1%12.9%
7/26/20234.4%5.3%-4.0%
4/26/202313.9%13.2%20.7%
2/1/202323.3%19.8%21.0%
10/26/2022-24.6%-30.3%-14.2%
7/27/2022-5.2%-0.5%-0.5%
4/27/202217.6%27.7%9.5%
2/2/2022-26.4%-28.2%-38.1%
10/25/2021-3.9%0.4%2.6%
7/28/2021-4.0%-3.8%-2.4%
4/28/20217.3%2.6%8.4%
1/27/2021-2.6%-2.0%-5.3%
10/29/2020-6.3%4.9%-1.4%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111410
# Negative13913
Median Positive10.4%5.1%11.2%
Median Negative-6.3%-8.4%-4.0%
Max Positive23.3%27.7%26.3%
Max Negative-26.4%-30.3%-38.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202607/30/202610-Q
03/31/202604/30/202610-Q
12/31/202501/29/202610-K
09/30/202510/30/202510-Q
06/30/202507/31/202510-Q
03/31/202505/01/202510-Q
12/31/202401/30/202510-K
09/30/202410/31/202410-Q
06/30/202408/01/202410-Q
03/31/202404/25/202410-Q
12/31/202302/02/202410-K
09/30/202310/26/202310-Q
06/30/202307/27/202310-Q
03/31/202304/27/202310-Q
12/31/202202/02/202310-K
09/30/202210/27/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202607/30/202610-Q
03/31/202604/30/202610-Q
12/31/202501/29/202610-K
09/30/202510/30/202510-Q
06/30/202507/31/202510-Q
03/31/202505/01/202510-Q
12/31/202401/30/202510-K
09/30/202410/31/202410-Q
06/30/202408/01/202410-Q
03/31/202404/25/202410-Q
12/31/202302/02/202410-K
09/30/202310/26/202310-Q
06/30/202307/27/202310-Q
03/31/202304/27/202310-Q
12/31/202202/02/202310-K
09/30/202210/27/202210-Q
06/30/202207/28/202210-Q
03/31/202204/28/202210-Q
12/31/202102/03/202210-K
09/30/202110/26/202110-Q
06/30/202107/29/202110-Q
03/31/202104/29/202110-Q
12/31/202001/28/202110-K
09/30/202010/30/202010-Q
06/30/202007/31/202010-Q
03/31/202004/30/202010-Q
12/31/201901/30/202010-K
09/30/201910/31/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 7/30/2026

Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/29/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q3 2026 Revenue61.00 Bil62.50 Bil64.00 Bil   
Q3 2026 Tax Rate15.0%16.0%17.0% 1.5%RaisedGuidance: 14.5% for 2026
2026 Total Expenses165.00 Bil167.00 Bil169.00 Bil0.9% RaisedGuidance: 165.50 Bil for 2026
2026 Capital Expenditures130.00 Bil137.50 Bil145.00 Bil1.9% RaisedGuidance: 135.00 Bil for 2026

Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/29/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q2 2026 Revenue58.00 Bil59.50 Bil61.00 Bil   
2026 Total Expenses162.00 Bil165.50 Bil169.00 Bil0 AffirmedGuidance: 165.50 Bil for 2026
2026 Capital Expenditures125.00 Bil135.00 Bil145.00 Bil8.0% RaisedGuidance: 125.00 Bil for 2026
2026 Tax Rate13.0%14.5%16.0% 0AffirmedGuidance: 14.5% for 2026

Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/28/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q1 2026 Revenue53.50 Bil55.00 Bil56.50 Bil-4.3% Lower NewGuidance: 57.50 Bil for Q4 2025
2026 Total Expenses162.00 Bil165.50 Bil169.00 Bil41.5% Higher NewGuidance: 117.00 Bil for 2025
2026 Capital Expenditures115.00 Bil125.00 Bil135.00 Bil76.1% Higher NewGuidance: 71.00 Bil for 2025
2026 Tax Rate13.0%14.5%16.0%   

Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/29/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q4 2025 Revenue56.00 Bil57.50 Bil59.00 Bil17.3% Higher NewGuidance: 49.00 Bil for Q3 2025
Q4 2025 Tax Rate12.0%13.5%15.0%   
2025 Total Expenses116.00 Bil117.00 Bil118.00 Bil0.9% RaisedGuidance: 116.00 Bil for 2025
2025 Capital Expenditures70.00 Bil71.00 Bil72.00 Bil2.9% RaisedGuidance: 69.00 Bil for 2025

Insider Activity

Updated 7/29/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell7292026607.85837508,7703,823,376Form
2Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell7292026607.858249,8444,044,634Form
3Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell7292026607.855734,647991,403Form
4Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell7292026607.858249,8444,044,634Form
5Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell7292026607.85408248,00349,054,103Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell7292026607.85837508,7703,823,376Form
2Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell7292026607.858249,8444,044,634Form
3Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell7292026607.855734,647991,403Form
4Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell7292026607.858249,8444,044,634Form
5Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell7292026607.85408248,00349,054,103Form
6Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell7222026645.85837540,5764,602,973Form
7Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell7222026645.858252,9604,350,446Form
8Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell7222026645.855736,8131,090,195Form
9Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell7222026645.858252,9604,350,446Form
10Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell7222026645.85408263,50752,384,248Form
11Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell7152026660.981,5341,013,9365,264,009Form
12Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell7152026661.138254,2134,507,584Form
13Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell7152026661.135737,6841,153,672Form
14Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell7152026661.138254,2134,507,584Form
15Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell7152026661.13408269,74153,893,334Form
16Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell7082026600.973,3482,012,0565,708,038Form
17Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell7082026600.00246147,6004,140,000Form
18Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell7082026600.00171102,6001,081,200Form
19Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell7082026600.00246147,6004,140,000Form
20Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell7082026600.951,224735,56649,233,020Form
21Kimmitt, Robert MDirectSell7062026607.75500303,8752,092,483Form
22Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell6172026600.0014084,0007,707,600Form
23Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell6172026600.0016498,4004,287,600Form
24Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell6172026600.0011468,4001,183,800Form
25Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell6172026600.0016498,4004,287,600Form
26Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell6172026600.00816489,60049,889,400Form
27Kimmitt, Robert MDirectSell6032026629.29504317,1622,481,290Form
28Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell6032026629.29837526,7168,171,960Form
29Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell6032026629.298251,6024,600,110Form
30Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell6032026629.295735,8701,313,328Form
31Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell6032026629.298251,6024,600,110Form
32Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell6032026629.29408256,75052,838,335Form
33Mahoney, Curtis JChief Legal OfficerDirectSell5292026609.922,0791,268,024681,891Form
34Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell5282026608.98837509,7168,417,931Form
35Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell5282026608.988249,9364,501,580Form
36Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell5282026608.985734,7121,305,653Form
37Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell5282026608.988249,9364,501,580Form
38Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell5282026608.98408248,46451,381,470Form
39Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell5192026609.35837510,0268,933,071Form
40Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell5192026609.358249,9674,554,282Form
41Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell5192026609.355734,7331,341,179Form
42Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell5192026609.358249,9674,554,282Form
43Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell5192026609.35408248,61551,661,302Form
44Bosworth, AndrewChief Technology OfficerDirectSell5192026607.837,8474,769,642251,642Form
45Li, Susan JChief Financial OfficerSusan Li and John Hegeman, Co-Trustees of The Li-Hegeman Living Trust u/t/a dated November 30, 2012Sell5192026607.849,1955,589,1338,015,041Form
46Li, Susan JChief Financial OfficerSusan Li and John Hegeman, Co-Trustees of The Li-Hegeman Living Trust u/t/a dated November 30, 2012Sell5192026618.432,1271,315,4019,490,427Form
47Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell5132026604.57926559,8324,143,118Form
48Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell5132026604.578249,5754,568,131Form
49Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell5132026604.575734,4601,365,119Form
50Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell5132026604.578249,5754,568,131Form
51Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell5132026604.57408246,66551,502,714Form
52Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell5062026607.74926562,7674,727,609Form
53Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell5062026607.748249,8354,641,918Form
54Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell5062026607.745734,6411,406,918Form
55Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell5062026607.748249,8354,641,918Form
56Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell5062026607.74408247,95852,020,721Form
57Alford, PeggyAlford Family Revocable TrustSell5052026614.53409251,3431,661,689Form
58Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell4292026670.84926621,1985,839,662Form
59Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell4292026670.848255,0095,178,885Form
60Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell4292026670.845738,2381,591,232Form
61Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell4292026670.848255,0095,178,885Form
62Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell4292026670.84408273,70357,695,594Form
63Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell4222026680.09926629,7636,549,947Form
64Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell4222026680.098255,7675,306,062Form
65Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell4222026680.095738,7651,651,939Form
66Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell4222026680.098255,7675,306,062Form
67Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell4222026680.09408277,47758,768,617Form
68Kimmitt, Robert MDirectSell4172026667.00580386,8602,565,949Form
69Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell4152026629.452,7781,748,5996,645,054Form
70Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell4152026629.53246154,8644,963,215Form
71Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell4152026629.53171107,6501,565,012Form
72Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell4152026629.53246154,8644,963,215Form
73Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell4152026629.561,224770,58254,659,050Form
74Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell3252026605.38926560,5828,072,742Form
75Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell3252026605.388249,6414,921,739Form
76Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell3252026605.385734,5071,608,495Form
77Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell3252026605.388249,6414,921,739Form
78Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell3252026605.38408246,99553,300,682Form
79Kimmitt, Robert MDirectSell3182026632.02580366,5722,797,953Form
80Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell3182026632.02926585,2519,013,237Form
81Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell3182026632.028251,8265,190,148Form
82Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell3182026632.025736,0251,715,302Form
83Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell3182026632.028251,8265,190,148Form
84Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell3182026632.02408257,86455,904,065Form
85Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell3112026634.94926587,9549,642,834Form
86Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell3112026634.948252,0655,266,192Form
87Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell3112026634.945736,1921,759,419Form
88Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell3112026634.948252,0655,266,192Form
89Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell3112026634.94408259,05656,421,403Form
90Li, Susan JChief Financial OfficerLi-Hegeman Family FoundationSell3032026644.7056,571  Form
91Alford, PeggyAlford Family Revocable TrustSell2272026643.00392252,0562,001,659Form
92Li, Susan JChief Financial OfficerSusan Li and John Hegeman, Co-Trustees of The Li-Hegeman Living Trust u/t/a dated November 30, 2012Sell2262026633.6155,70235,293,1758,354,741Form
93Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell2252026652.68926604,38211,121,015Form
94Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell2252026652.688253,5205,520,367Form
95Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell2252026652.685737,2031,882,982Form
96Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell2252026652.688253,5205,520,367Form
97Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell2252026652.68408266,29358,530,384Form
98Li, Susan JChief Financial OfficerSusan Li and John Hegeman, Co-Trustees of The Li-Hegeman Living Trust u/t/a dated November 30, 2012Sell2242026650.0018,78912,212,85044,777,200Form
99Bosworth, AndrewChief Technology OfficerDirectSell2202026631.248,0895,106,0821,793,346Form
100Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell2182026639.18172109,93911,482,869Form
101Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell2182026639.188252,4135,458,597Form
102Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell2182026639.185736,4331,880,468Form
103Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell2182026639.188252,4135,458,597Form
104Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell2182026639.18408260,78557,580,530Form
105Li, Susan JChief Financial OfficerSusan Li and John Hegeman, Co-Trustees of The Li-Hegeman Living Trust u/t/a dated November 30, 2012Sell2182026639.776,4184,106,04446,924,570Form
106Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell2182026639.772,4611,574,4747,746,335Form
107Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell2112026663.19517342,8696,033,703Form
108Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell2042026714.60517369,4486,870,879Form
109Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell1282026665.00517343,8056,737,780Form
110Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell1222026608.35517314,5176,478,319Form
111Kimmitt, Robert MDirectSell1202026618.28580358,6023,454,330Form
112Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell1142026653.00517337,6017,291,398Form
113Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell12302025658.69519341,86018,876,738Form
114Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell12302025658.14517340,2588,029,308Form
115Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell12232025659.38519342,21819,238,730Form
116Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell12232025661.11517341,7948,407,336Form
117Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell12182025643.23519333,83619,101,358Form
118Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell12172025646.00517333,9828,549,164Form
119Kimmitt, Robert MDirectSell12172025646.00580374,6803,983,882Form
120Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell12112025664.16519344,69920,067,594Form
121Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell12102025669.63517346,1999,208,082Form
122Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell12042025642.22519333,31219,737,989Form
123Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell12032025639.03517330,3799,117,706Form
124Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell11262025624.14519323,92919,506,247Form
125Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell11262025598.54517309,4458,849,414Form
126Bosworth, AndrewChief Technology OfficerDirectSell11202025593.3111,6906,935,7431,432,833Form
127Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell11202025591.60519307,04020,487,700Form
128Anderson, AaronChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell11202025591.60726429,5023,570,306Form
129Kimmitt, Robert MDirectSell11192025609.35600365,6104,476,894Form
130Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell11182025604.23517312,3869,245,905Form
131Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell11182025609.462,6101,590,6915,962,957Form
132Li, Susan JChief Financial OfficerSusan Li and John Hegeman, Co-Trustees of The Li-Hegeman Living Trust u/t/a dated November 30, 2012Sell11182025609.466,8754,190,03853,857,980Form
133Bosworth, AndrewChief Technology OfficerDirectSell11182025609.465,0633,085,6964,227,215Form
134Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell11122025631.00517326,2274,369,044Form
135Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell11122025631.00516325,59616,860,951Form
136Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell11062025628.00519325,93217,104,836Form
137Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell11052025656.00517339,1524,881,296Form
138Alford, PeggyAlford Family Revocable TrustSell11042025674.40601405,3142,363,772Form
139Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell10302025753.00519390,80720,900,268Form
140Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell10292025749.57517387,5285,965,078Form
141Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell10232025736.37519382,17620,820,862Form
142Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell10222025721.30517372,9126,113,018Form
143Kimmitt, Robert MDirectSell10172025716.97465333,3915,697,761Form
144Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell10162025707.85519367,37420,381,833Form
145Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell10152025713.34517368,7976,414,353Form
146Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell10092025716.98519372,11321,016,835Form
147Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell10082025704.81517364,3876,702,038Form
148Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell10022025741.50519384,83822,120,428Form
149Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell10012025748.72517387,0887,506,667Form
150Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell9252025769.20519399,21523,345,989Form
151Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell9242025781.33517403,9488,237,562Form
152Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell9182025767.16519398,15623,682,229Form
153Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell9172025757.47517391,6128,377,618Form
154Kimmitt, Robert MDirectSell9172025757.47465352,2246,371,838Form
155Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell9112025757.50519393,14223,777,168Form
156Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell9102025755.65517390,6718,748,160Form
157Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell9042025726.25519376,92423,173,185Form
158Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell9042025726.25517375,4718,783,268Form
159Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell8282025750.47519389,49424,335,491Form
160Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell8272025755.11517390,3929,522,692Form
161Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell8192025775.00519402,22525,533,150Form
162Bosworth, AndrewChief Technology OfficerDirectSell8192025775.0011,6949,062,8501,394,225Form
163Li, Susan JChief Financial OfficerSusan Li and John Hegeman, Co-Trustees of The Li-Hegeman Living Trust u/t/a dated November 30, 2012Sell8192025764.7118,33214,018,62464,343,280Form
164Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell8192025775.00517400,67510,174,200Form
165Kimmitt, Robert MDirectSell8192025784.32465364,7096,962,409Form
166Bosworth, AndrewChief Technology OfficerDirectSell8192025782.135,0573,955,2314,946,190Form
167Li, Susan JChief Financial OfficerSusan Li and John Hegeman, Co-Trustees of The Li-Hegeman Living Trust u/t/a dated November 30, 2012Sell8192025782.136,8755,377,14469,116,828Form
168Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell8192025782.132,6122,042,9245,951,227Form
169Zuckerberg, MarkCOB and CEOCZI Holdings, LLCSell8132025785.181,037  Form
170Zuckerberg, MarkCOB and CEOCZI Holdings, LLCSell8132025787.0615,847  Form
171Zuckerberg, MarkCOB and CEOCZI Holdings, LLCSell8132025769.3115,847  Form
172Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell8132025770.00517398,0903,658,270Form
173Zuckerberg, MarkCOB and CEOCZI Holdings, LLCSell8112025765.1115,847  Form
174Zuckerberg, MarkCOB and CEOCZI Holdings, LLCSell8112025767.4215,847  Form
175Cox, Christopher KChief Product OfficerChristopher K. Cox Revocable TrustSell8082025767.8015,00011,517,049170,609,719Form
176Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell8072025776.38515399,83619,436,673Form
177Cox, Christopher KChief Product OfficerChristopher K. Cox Revocable TrustSell8072025775.9560,00046,557,091184,059,579Form
178Zuckerberg, MarkCOB and CEOCZI Holdings, LLCSell8062025768.6715,847  Form
179Zuckerberg, MarkCOB and CEOCZI Holdings, LLCSell8062025770.0215,847  Form
180Zuckerberg, MarkCOB and CEOCZI Holdings, LLCSell8062025769.3815,847  Form
181Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell8062025760.26517393,0544,005,050Form
182Alford, PeggyAlford Family Revocable TrustSell8052025760.80518394,0943,123,845Form
183Zuckerberg, MarkCOB and CEOCZI Holdings, LLCSell8042025753.4315,847  Form
184Zuckerberg, MarkCOB and CEOCZI Holdings, LLCSell8042025777.3515,847  Form
185Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell7312025719.86519373,60718,392,423Form
186Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell7302025715.00517369,6554,136,275Form
187Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell7242025716.10519371,65618,668,011Form
188Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell7232025706.41517365,2144,451,796Form
189Kimmitt, Robert MDirectSell7172025723.08465336,2326,755,013Form
190Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell7172025723.08519375,27919,225,251Form
191Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell7162025717.50517370,9484,892,632Form
192Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell7102025721.57519374,49519,559,598Form
193Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell7092025717.51517370,9535,263,653Form
194Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell7032025737.00519382,50320,360,362Form
195Zuckerberg, MarkCOB and CEOChan Zuckerberg Initiative FoundationSell7022025716.482,361  Form
196Zuckerberg, MarkCOB and CEOChan Zuckerberg Initiative FoundationSell7022025723.8913,7939,984,6701,709,114Form
197Zuckerberg, MarkCOB and CEOChan Zuckerberg Initiative FoundationSell7022025740.2213,79310,209,83411,957,490Form
198Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell7022025740.97517383,0835,818,853Form
199Zuckerberg, MarkCOB and CEOChan Zuckerberg Initiative FoundationSell6302025730.4713,79310,075,30721,875,242Form
200Zuckerberg, MarkCOB and CEOChan Zuckerberg Initiative FoundationSell6302025722.2713,7939,962,26431,592,070Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Aug 1, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Newlands Management Operations LLC$5.6 Bil36.3%16Hold13F
Gobi Capital LLC$401.7 Mil23.5%10Hold13F
Palidye Holdings (Caymans) Ltd$123.2 Mil22.9%15Hold13F
RV Capital AG$83.3 Mil21.8%13ADD +6.8%13F
3G Capital Partners LP$60.1 Mil21.3%10ADD +16.7%13F
Concentrum Wealth Management$67.0 Mil19.8%111Hold13F
Altimeter Capital Management, LP$1.1 Bil19.6%13ADD +5.9%13F
BlueSpruce Investments, LP$111.5 Mil17.7%10TRIM -77.7%13F
Cat Rock Capital Management LP$113.6 Mil17.6%14TRIM -7.9%13F
Greenbrier Partners Capital Management, LLC$226.0 Mil17.4%11Hold13F
Headwater Capital Co Ltd$108.1 Mil17.4%15New13F
SP Asset Management LLC$195.3 Mil17.2%119Hold13F
Theleme Partners LLP$258.1 Mil17.2%10Hold13F
Torque Asset Management LLC$42.8 Mil16.8%12Hold13F
TB Alternative Assets Ltd.$77.2 Mil16.1%36TRIM -22.0%13F
Grace & Mercy Foundation, Inc.$55.8 Mil13.6%21TRIM -5.8%13F
Dragoneer Investment Group, LLC $407.8 Mil13.6%17New13F
WIM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT Ltd$44.8 Mil13.3%20ADD +17.9%13F
Styrax Capital, LP$176.2 Mil12.3%17ADD +5.7%13F
Ratan Capital Management LP$32.4 Mil12.0%37ADD +27.4%13F
Belvedere Trading LLC$84.7 Mil11.3%227New13F
Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P.$1.5 Bil11.1%11Hold13F
ADAPT Investment Managers SA$31.8 Mil10.8%34New13F
Hoey Investments, Inc$73.1 Mil10.8%416Hold13F
Hyperion Asset Management Ltd$324.4 Mil10.3%18New13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Dragoneer Investment Group, LLC $407.8 Mil13.6%17New13F
Hyperion Asset Management Ltd$324.4 Mil10.3%18New13F
Bowie Capital Management, LLC$147.7 Mil7.0%29New13F
Headwater Capital Co Ltd$108.1 Mil17.4%15New13F
Soma Equity Partners LP$97.5 Mil7.2%20New13F
Belvedere Trading LLC$84.7 Mil11.3%227New13F
Exane Asset Management$33.9 Mil6.9%32New13F
ADAPT Investment Managers SA$31.8 Mil10.8%34New13F
Long Corridor Asset Management Ltd$30.3 Mil7.4%38New13F
Element Capital Management LLC$22.9 Mil9.0%34New13F
Ratan Capital Management LP$32.4 Mil12.0%37ADD +27.4%13F
Crow's Nest Holdings LP$36.6 Mil8.6%11ADD +25.2%13F
Park Presidio Capital LLC$132.4 Mil9.3%13ADD +20.6%13F
WIM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT Ltd$44.8 Mil13.3%20ADD +17.9%13F
3G Capital Partners LP$60.1 Mil21.3%10ADD +16.7%13F
Hamilton Capital Partners, LLC$31.4 Mil9.8%30ADD +15.3%13F
MFF Capital Investments Ltd$127.5 Mil8.4%19ADD +10.0%13F
RV Capital AG$83.3 Mil21.8%13ADD +6.8%13F
Altimeter Capital Management, LP$1.1 Bil19.6%13ADD +5.9%13F
Styrax Capital, LP$176.2 Mil12.3%17ADD +5.7%13F
Sanders Capital, LLC$6.0 Bil7.2%44ADD +5.2%13F
Horiko Capital Management LLC$40.9 Mil9.4%20ADD +5.1%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQAs OfFiling
Giverny Capital Inc.$206.9 Mil6.9%50ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Teewinot Capital Advisers, L.L.C.$120.4 Mil8.8%31ExitedDec 31, 202513F
MIG Capital, LLC$52.4 Mil8.9%43ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Hound Partners, LLC$50.8 Mil7.0%36ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Kapitalo Investimentos Ltda$37.4 Mil7.2%35ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Venator Management LLC$33.2 Mil7.5%27ExitedDec 31, 202513F
BlueSpruce Investments, LP$111.5 Mil17.7%10TRIM -77.7%Mar 31, 202613F
Greenwoods Asset Management Hong Kong Ltd.$309.9 Mil8.0%35TRIM -45.7%Mar 31, 202613F
Columbus Hill Capital Management, L.P.$40.3 Mil6.8%21TRIM -29.7%Mar 31, 202613F
TB Alternative Assets Ltd.$77.2 Mil16.1%36TRIM -22.0%Mar 31, 202613F
ValueAct Holdings, L.P.$523.9 Mil9.2%18TRIM -12.6%Mar 31, 202613F
Cat Rock Capital Management LP$113.6 Mil17.6%14TRIM -7.9%Mar 31, 202613F
Grace & Mercy Foundation, Inc.$55.8 Mil13.6%21TRIM -5.8%Mar 31, 202613F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Sanders Capital, LLC$6.0 Bil7.2%44ADD +5.2%13F
Newlands Management Operations LLC$5.6 Bil36.3%16Hold13F
Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P.$1.5 Bil11.1%11Hold13F
Altimeter Capital Management, LP$1.1 Bil19.6%13ADD +5.9%13F
ValueAct Holdings, L.P.$523.9 Mil9.2%18TRIM -12.6%13F
Dragoneer Investment Group, LLC $407.8 Mil13.6%17New13F
Gobi Capital LLC$401.7 Mil23.5%10Hold13F
Hyperion Asset Management Ltd$324.4 Mil10.3%18New13F
Greenwoods Asset Management Hong Kong Ltd.$309.9 Mil8.0%35TRIM -45.7%13F
Theleme Partners LLP$258.1 Mil17.2%10Hold13F
Greenbrier Partners Capital Management, LLC$226.0 Mil17.4%11Hold13F
SP Asset Management LLC$195.3 Mil17.2%119Hold13F
Styrax Capital, LP$176.2 Mil12.3%17ADD +5.7%13F
Bowie Capital Management, LLC$147.7 Mil7.0%29New13F
Park Presidio Capital LLC$132.4 Mil9.3%13ADD +20.6%13F
MFF Capital Investments Ltd$127.5 Mil8.4%19ADD +10.0%13F
Palidye Holdings (Caymans) Ltd$123.2 Mil22.9%15Hold13F
a16z Capital Management, L.L.C.$121.6 Mil9.4%16Hold13F
Cat Rock Capital Management LP$113.6 Mil17.6%14TRIM -7.9%13F
BlueSpruce Investments, LP$111.5 Mil17.7%10TRIM -77.7%13F
Headwater Capital Co Ltd$108.1 Mil17.4%15New13F
Soma Equity Partners LP$97.5 Mil7.2%20New13F
Dorsey Asset Management, LLC$92.5 Mil7.4%11Hold13F
Strategy Capital LLC$85.6 Mil7.0%11Hold13F
Belvedere Trading LLC$84.7 Mil11.3%227New13F

META Trade Sentinel


Stock Conviction

Neutral / Watch

CONVICTION RATIONALE

Conviction is neutral because the company's powerful advertising business, with 28% revenue growth, is funding a massive and uncertain AI investment cycle. Operating margins have fallen to 38.1% amid soaring expenses. The story hinges on whether this spending can sustain top-line growth and generate a return, a question the market is deeply skeptical of.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
Transactional Advertising

Revenue = (Daily Active People * Engagement) * Ad Load * Average Price Per Ad The operating margin of the Family of Apps segment, which is driven by the spread between advertising revenue growth and the costs of infrastructure, R&D, and content review required to support it.

Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Can Massive AI Spend Drive Profitable Ad Dominance?

Evidence suggests AI investment is boosting the core ad business, but at a significant cost to near-term margins.

Mechanism: AI-driven ad tools improve advertiser ROI, supporting both volume (14% impression growth) and pricing (12% price growth), funding the next growth cycle.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Latest-quarter revenue grew 28% year-over-year.
  • Ad impressions increased 14% and average price per ad increased 12% in Q2 2026.
  • AI-powered Advantage+ solutions reached an over $75 billion annual revenue run rate.
  • New AI advancements generated a 15.7% uplift in conversions on Facebook.
PRIMARY RISK
Value-Destructive Investment Cycle

Aggressive spending is outpacing revenue growth, compressing margins and potentially leading to a permanent reduction in profitability with no guarantee of sufficient returns.

Mechanism: A material deceleration in revenue growth would confirm that the spending is not generating adequate top-line momentum.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Operating expenses grew 47% YoY, far outpacing 27.7% revenue growth.
  • Trailing-twelve-month operating margin fell to 38.1% from 44% a year earlier.
  • 2026 capital expenditure guidance was raised to a range of $130 billion to $145 billion.
  • Reality Labs segment lost $19.193 billion in operating income in 2025.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Status Rationale
Ad Impressions Growth14% year-over-year growth in Q2 2026 - DeceleratingAd impressions, the volume driver of revenue, experienced a notable deceleration in the most recent quarter after two quarters of strong, accelerating growth. Management attributed the latest quarter's growth to engagement, user growth, and ad load optimizations.
Average Price per Ad Growth12% year-over-year growth in Q2 2026 - StableAverage price per ad, the pricing driver, accelerated significantly from Q4 2025 into Q1 2026 and has since stabilized at a strong double-digit growth rate. Management cited ad performance gains and improved macro conditions as key drivers.
Family Daily Active People (DAP)3.56 billion (March 2026 average)The number of unique users engaging with at least one of the company's core apps daily, signaling the size of the monetizable audience and overall platform health.
Ad Impressions (Family of Apps)Increased 19% year-over-year (Q1 2026)The total number of ads delivered across the company's apps, representing the volume of monetizable inventory. Growth is driven by user growth, engagement, and changes in ad load.
Average Price Per Ad (Family of Apps)Increased 12% year-over-year (Q1 2026)The average price marketers pay per ad, reflecting advertiser demand, ad quality, targeting effectiveness, and macroeconomic conditions. It is a key driver of revenue growth.
Core Investment Debate

AI-Fueled Growth vs. Margin-Crushing Spend

BULL VIEW

Bulls believe the 28% revenue growth proves the AI investment is working, creating a durable competitive advantage that will lead to higher future cash flows.

CORE TENSION

Can AI-driven ad performance, which lifted conversions 15.7%, offset the -$145 billion 2026 capex bill that caused a -9.0% post-earnings drop?


PREVAILING SENTIMENT
NEUTRAL

The latest evidence favors the bears, as decelerating impression growth and rising expense guidance suggest the cost-benefit balance is worsening.

BEAR VIEW

Bears see operating expenses growing at 47% and a 5.9 percentage point drop in operating margin as proof of a value-destructive spending spree with an uncertain payoff.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
August 5, 2026
Youth Harm Litigation Verdicts
Watch: Jury verdicts, settlement announcements, or judicial rulings from scheduled trials, particularly regarding monetary damages or required business practice changes.
August 5, 2026
State AGs Addiction Trial
Watch: The company's multidistrict litigation trial for claims brought by state attorneys general is scheduled to begin.
September 8, 2026
New Mexico AG Trial
Watch: The trial in the New Mexico Attorney General's case, seeking up to $62.85 billion in penalties, is scheduled to begin.
October 2026
Spanish Media Antitrust Trial
Watch: The trial in the UTECA v. Meta Ireland case in Spain is scheduled.
10/27/2026
Negative Digital Ad Read-Through
Watch: Commentary from GOOGL and SNAP management on advertiser demand, pricing trends, and vertical strength or weakness in the digital ad market.
10/27/2026
Decelerating Growth and Margin Pressure
Watch: Q3 revenue results and any revisions to the full-year -169B expense outlook.
10/27/2026
Third Quarter Earnings Report
Watch: The company is scheduled to report Q3 2026 earnings.
September 23
Disappointing AI Product Showcase
Watch: Product demonstrations and monetization strategy for new AI agents and hardware. A lack of compelling use cases could weaken the investment narrative.
September 23
Connect Developer Conference
Watch: The company will hold its annual Connect conference, with more to be shared on the glasses lineup.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
2026-07-29
Q2 Earnings and Guidance Update
Details: The company reported Q2 results with 28% revenue growth and issued Q3 guidance. It also raised guidance for 2026 total expenses and capital expenditures. The stock reacted with a -9.0% two-day decline.
-9.2%
$593.41 -> $539.03
2026-05-11
Landmark Consumer Fraud Lawsuit Filed
Details: Santa Clara County filed a civil prosecution alleging Meta knowingly facilitates and profits from scam advertisements on its platforms, the first such action by a local prosecutor in the nation.
-1.1%
$609.07 -> $602.44
2026-04-29
Q1 Earnings Report and Stock Drop
Details: Following the Q1 earnings report, the stock had a two-day reaction of -9.0%. The report detailed strong 33.1% revenue growth but also confirmed massive investment plans.
-8.9%
$670.72 -> $611.34
2026-04-09
Muse Spark AI Model Launched
Details: The company launched Muse Spark, its most powerful AI model yet and the first major product from its new Meta Superintelligence Lab, raising the stakes for its increased capital expenditures.
+2.8%
$611.85 -> $629.28
2026-03-28
Stock Enters Bear Market
Details: A press report on 2026-03-28 noted the stock had entered a "stunning bear market," with shares down nearly from 2025 highs amid concerns over aggressive AI investment.
-2.0%
$547.03 -> $535.88
2026-01-28
Q4 Earnings Beat and AI Capex Plan
Details: The company beat on Q4 earnings and announced plans to spend as much as $135 billion on its AI build-out in 2026. The stock reacted with a 10.0% two-day gain.
+9.7%
$671.77 -> $737.00
Risk Management
Position Sizing

2% - 4%

REDUCED POSITION

Sizing is volatility-based: META trades at roughly 37% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 16% for the S&P 500 (2.4x the market), around the 91st percentile of its own trailing year. A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.

Diversification Alternatives
GOOGL - Alphabet
Diversified Tech Conglomerate

Alphabet offers exposure to the digital ad market plus high-growth enterprise cloud and more diversified revenue streams, with lower capital intensity relative to revenue.

Core Thesis: Invest in a dominant search advertising business paired with a rapidly growing, AI-powered cloud segment.
MSFT - Microsoft
Enterprise AI Exposure

Microsoft provides a clearer, more immediate path to AI monetization through its dominant enterprise software and cloud infrastructure, without the consumer-facing regulatory risks.

Core Thesis: Own the premier platform for enterprise adoption of generative AI through integrated software and cloud services.
How Is The Market Pricing META?

An AI-powered advertising juggernaut funding a long-duration, high-cost venture bet on the next computing platform.

Meta's core business is a highly profitable digital advertising machine powered by its massive social graph and improving AI recommendation and ad-ranking systems. This profit engine is being used to fund a costly, multi-decade effort to build the successor to the mobile internet through its Reality Labs segment. Investors are weighing the robust growth and cash flow of the core business against decelerating growth, compressing margins from heavy AI and RL investment, and significant regulatory and competitive risks.

What will confirm the thesis

Sustained or accelerating growth in ad impressions and price-per-ad, evidence of AI investments improving ad ROI, stabilization or improvement in operating margins, and meaningful product traction or revenue milestones in Reality Labs.

What will damage the thesis

Decelerating user growth or engagement, declining price-per-ad, further margin compression from expenses growing faster than revenue, significant fines or business-altering rulings from regulators, or continued large-scale losses in Reality Labs without a clear path to profitability.

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Short-term stock price volatility around earnings reports, which have been highly negative recently. Shareholder proposals regarding content moderation policies.

Repricing Catalyst

The market's reaction to the company's increased expense and capital expenditure guidance for 2026, which signals a prolonged period of heavy investment in AI and Reality Labs that is pressuring profitability and free cash flow.

What META Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on the twelve months through fiscal Q1 2026
Family of Apps (FoA)
$212.8B TTM (99% of Total) · 83% Margin
What It Is

This segment sells advertising placements to marketers, enabling them to reach users on Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, Threads, and WhatsApp. It also generates 'Other' revenue from paid messaging on WhatsApp and Meta Verified subscriptions.

Who Pays & How

Marketers, ranging from small businesses to large corporations, pay for ads to connect with a global user base of over 3.6 billion daily active people. They use the platform's self-service tools and global sales force to achieve marketing objectives like lead generation and brand awareness.

Advertisers pay based on the number of ad impressions delivered or the number of user actions, such as clicks. Pricing is determined through an auction system. Other revenue comes from subscriptions and paid messaging services.
Competition
TikTok is named as a competitive product that has reduced some users' engagement. The company also competes broadly with other online platforms for user attention and advertising budgets.
Competitors may have stronger positions in certain user demographics, particularly younger users, who are actively engaging with substitute products and services.
The company's moat is its massive, globally-scaled user base across its integrated family of apps, creating a powerful network effect that is difficult to replicate and highly attractive to advertisers.
Reality Labs (RL)
$2.2B TTM (1% of Total) · -1455% Margin
What It Is

This segment sells consumer hardware products like Meta Quest virtual reality (VR) headsets and AI glasses (developed with partners like Ray-Ban and Oakley), as well as related software and content, to consumers.

Who Pays & How

Consumers pay for hardware and digital content to access immersive experiences in gaming, fitness, and entertainment, and to use new AI-powered wearable devices. Sales are made through third-party retailers and a direct-to-consumer channel.

Revenue is generated from the unit sale of hardware devices and sales of software and content through the Meta Horizon Store.
Competition
The company notes it has relatively limited experience with consumer hardware and VR/AR technology, which may enable other companies to compete more effectively.
The company's moat is its significant, sustained capital investment in long-term R&D for this category, funded by the profits from its Family of Apps segment, and its ability to integrate these future platforms with its existing massive social graph.
META Evolution: Price Return by Era
2021-2025 · The Social Graph Monetization Engine
+147%
Over the past years, the Family of Apps segment has been the overwhelming source of revenue and the sole source of profit. Revenue from this segment grew from $115,655 million to $198,759 million in 2025, while its operating income grew from $56,946 million to $102,469 million. This period solidified its status as a dominant digital advertising platform.
2021-2025 · The Metaverse/AI Investment Cycle
+147%
Concurrently, the Reality Labs segment has been a story of heavy investment with minimal revenue and mounting losses. Revenue has remained flat annually, while operating losses expanded dramatically from $10,193 million to $19,193 million in 2025, reflecting the company's long-term strategic pivot and the high cost of developing a new computing platform.
Market Appears To Be Acting Against Core Thesis
Price structure is in a downtrend. Multiple SMA levels broken and declining. Thesis requires reclaiming 200D before any bull case is credible. Relative to SPY: Lagging the market on the 63D window, but 'relative strength' is beginning to stabilize; watch for inflection. Volume and momentum are deeply bearish. The sustained distribution is evident across multiple volume metrics. Earnings history is clearly negative. The market punished the print and the drift confirms distribution. Thesis is under pressure.
① Structure
-4
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
-3
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
-2
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
-9 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Downtrend · -
2 Momentum Deteriorating
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Strong Underperformance
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Neutral / Mixed
5 Volatility Normal
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Rising
7 Earnings Reaction History Inconsistent
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars
Core Cache Last Updated: 7/31/2026