Eli Lilly (LLY)
Market Price (6/16/2026): $1121.1 | Market Cap: $1.0 TrilInvestor Relations Sector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals
Eli Lilly (LLY)
Market Price (6/16/2026): $1121.1Market Cap: $1.0 TrilSector: Health CareIndustry: Pharmaceuticals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 47% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 20 Bil, FCF LTM is 10 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 9.0 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.7%, Dist 3Y High is -2.7% Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -8.5% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 28x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 49x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 40x Key risksLLY key risks include [1] the eventual patent expiration of its blockbuster GLP-1 drugs, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 47% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 20 Bil, FCF LTM is 10 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 9.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.7%, Dist 3Y High is -2.7% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -8.5% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 28x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 49x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 40x |
| Key risksLLY key risks include [1] the eventual patent expiration of its blockbuster GLP-1 drugs, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Eli Lilly (LLY) stock has gained about 10% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Robust Fiscal Q1 2026 Performance and Upgraded Outlook.
Eli Lilly significantly exceeded market expectations for its fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), reporting a 56% year-over-year increase in worldwide revenue to $19.8 billion and a 156% surge in non-GAAP EPS to $8.55, both surpassing analyst consensus. This strong performance led the company to raise its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $82.0 billion to $85.0 billion and non-GAAP EPS guidance to $35.50 to $37.00.
2. Accelerated Demand for GLP-1 Franchise.
The company experienced exceptional sales growth in its leading GLP-1 receptor agonist therapies. In fiscal Q1 2026, Mounjaro sales reached $8.7 billion, a 125% increase year-over-year, while U.S. Zepbound revenue grew 79% to $4.1 billion, driven by robust demand. This momentum underscores Eli Lilly's dominant position and continued expansion in the rapidly growing diabetes and obesity markets.
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Eli Lilly (LLY) stock has gained about 10% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Robust Fiscal Q1 2026 Performance and Upgraded Outlook.
Eli Lilly significantly exceeded market expectations for its fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), reporting a 56% year-over-year increase in worldwide revenue to $19.8 billion and a 156% surge in non-GAAP EPS to $8.55, both surpassing analyst consensus. This strong performance led the company to raise its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $82.0 billion to $85.0 billion and non-GAAP EPS guidance to $35.50 to $37.00.
2. Accelerated Demand for GLP-1 Franchise.
The company experienced exceptional sales growth in its leading GLP-1 receptor agonist therapies. In fiscal Q1 2026, Mounjaro sales reached $8.7 billion, a 125% increase year-over-year, while U.S. Zepbound revenue grew 79% to $4.1 billion, driven by robust demand. This momentum underscores Eli Lilly's dominant position and continued expansion in the rapidly growing diabetes and obesity markets.
3. Key Regulatory Approvals and Promising Pipeline Data.
Eli Lilly achieved significant milestones with regulatory approvals and positive clinical trial results for its key pipeline assets. In April 2026, the U.S. FDA approved Foundayo (orforglipron), an oral GLP-1 for adults with obesity or overweight. Additionally, positive Phase 3 results were announced in June 2026 for Foundayo in type 2 diabetes, demonstrating superior A1C control and weight loss over oral semaglutide. Further reinforcing its leadership, compelling Phase 3 data for the investigational triple-agonist retatrutide showed substantial weight loss, up to 28.3% over 80 weeks, in patients with obesity.
4. Expanded Market Access and Diversification.
The company secured broader market access for its obesity treatments, with all three largest U.S. PBMs committing to cover Lilly's full obesity portfolio, including Foundayo and Zepbound, as announced on May 28, 2026. An agreement from November 2025, effective April 1, 2026, also expanded access for Medicare beneficiaries, capping monthly out-of-pocket costs at $50 for Zepbound and Foundayo (if approved). Diversifying its portfolio, Health Canada approved Kisunla (donanemab) for early symptomatic Alzheimer's disease in May 2026, adding a new significant treatment option to Lilly's offerings.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 7.5% change in LLY stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 10.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1050.18 | 1129.35 | 7.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 65,180 | 72,250 | 10.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 31.7% | 35.0% | 10.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 45.6 | 40.0 | -12.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 896 | 894 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 7.5% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LLY | 7.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.3% | 29.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | -4.2% | 75.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 5.4% change in LLY stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 21.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1071.83 | 1129.35 | 5.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 59,421 | 72,250 | 21.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 31.0% | 35.0% | 12.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 52.2 | 40.0 | -23.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 897 | 894 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 5.4% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LLY | 5.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.1% | 19.0% |
| Sector (XLV) | -2.2% | 72.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 54.2% change in LLY stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 54.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 732.49 | 1129.35 | 54.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 49,004 | 72,250 | 47.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.7% | 35.0% | 54.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 59.3 | 40.0 | -32.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 899 | 894 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 54.2% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LLY | 54.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 29.5% | 16.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 17.3% | 67.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 168.6% change in LLY stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 160.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 420.40 | 1129.35 | 168.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 27,691 | 72,250 | 160.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.5% | 35.0% | 70.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 66.6 | 40.0 | -40.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 901 | 894 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 168.6% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LLY | 168.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 87.7% | 28.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 25.7% | 59.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LLY Return | 66% | 34% | 61% | 33% | 40% | 6% | 610% |
| Peers Return | 23% | 18% | -7% | -0% | 24% | 10% | 84% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LLY Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 58% | 43% | 45% | 58% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LLY Max Drawdown | -19% | -15% | -15% | -24% | -33% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -17% | -24% | -20% | -20% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: JNJ, MRK, PFE, ABBV, AMGN. See LLY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/15/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 164 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -17.8% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.7% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -13.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -15.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 10 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -17.7% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.5% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 76 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Eli Lilly's stock fell -17.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.2% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | LLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -46.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1216 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Eli Lilly's stock fell -17.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Eli Lilly (LLY)
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) is a global pharmaceutical company dedicated to the discovery, development, and worldwide marketing of human pharmaceuticals. Founded in 1876, the company has a long history of bringing innovative medicines to market, focusing on addressing significant health challenges across various therapeutic areas.
The company boasts a comprehensive product portfolio, with a strong emphasis on several key therapeutic segments. In diabetes, Eli Lilly offers a wide range of insulin products (e.g., Humalog, Humulin) and treatments for type 2 diabetes (e.g., Jardiance, Trulicity). Its oncology division provides critical drugs like Alimta, Cyramza, and Verzenio for various cancers, including lung, breast, and gastrointestinal cancers. Additionally, Eli Lilly has a significant presence in immunology and neuroscience, offering treatments such as Olumiant for rheumatoid arthritis, Taltz for psoriasis, and Cymbalta and Zyprexa for mood and psychiatric disorders like depression and schizophrenia.
Eli Lilly's primary customers are patients worldwide suffering from a broad spectrum of chronic and acute medical conditions. The company serves these global markets by continuously engaging in research and development, often through strategic collaborations with other biotechnology and pharmaceutical firms, to expand its pipeline and deliver new and improved pharmaceutical solutions to enhance patient health and well-being.
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Eli Lilly is like **Pfizer** for a wide range of human diseases, with a strong focus on diabetes, cancer, and autoimmune conditions.
Think of it as a **Merck** that's a leading developer of drugs for diabetes, oncology, and neuroscience.
It's the **Johnson & Johnson** of pure prescription drugs, with a broad portfolio from insulins to advanced cancer treatments.
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- Insulin Products (e.g., Basaglar, Humalog, Humulin): A comprehensive portfolio of insulin therapies used for diabetes management.
- Jardiance: A medication for type 2 diabetes, also recognized for its cardiovascular and renal benefits.
- Trulicity: An injectable GLP-1 receptor agonist widely used for type 2 diabetes.
- Alimta: A chemotherapy agent primarily for certain lung cancers and malignant pleural mesothelioma.
- Cyramza: A targeted therapy for various advanced solid tumors, including gastric, lung, and colorectal cancers.
- Verzenio: A CDK4/6 inhibitor for the treatment of HR+, HER2- metastatic and early breast cancer.
- Olumiant: An oral JAK inhibitor prescribed for rheumatoid arthritis and other inflammatory conditions.
- Taltz: An IL-17A inhibitor used for a range of psoriatic and spondyloarthritic conditions.
- Cymbalta: A medication used for depressive disorder, anxiety, and various chronic pain conditions.
- Emgality: A preventive treatment specifically for migraine and episodic cluster headache.
- Zyprexa: An antipsychotic medication for the treatment of schizophrenia and bipolar I disorder.
- Cialis: A widely recognized medication for treating erectile dysfunction and benign prostatic hyperplasia.
- Forteo: A bone-forming agent prescribed for severe osteoporosis to reduce fracture risk.
- Retevmo: A targeted therapy for specific types of metastatic non-small cell lung cancer and thyroid cancers.
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Major Customers of Eli Lilly (LLY)
Eli Lilly and Company primarily sells its pharmaceutical products to other companies within the healthcare supply chain rather than directly to individual consumers. Its major customers are large pharmaceutical wholesalers and distributors, which then supply pharmacies, hospitals, and other healthcare providers. The major customer companies are:- McKesson Corporation (MCK)
- AmerisourceBergen Corporation (ABC)
- Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH)
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- Incyte Corporation (INCY)
- Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
- AbCellera Biologics Inc. (ABCL)
- Junshi Biosciences (1877.HK)
- Regor Therapeutics Group
- Lycia Therapeutics, Inc.
- Kumquat Biosciences Inc.
- Entos Pharmaceuticals Inc.
- Foghorn Therapeutics Inc. (FHTX)
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David A. Ricks, Chair and Chief Executive Officer
David A. Ricks joined Eli Lilly and Company in 1996 as a business development associate, working on mergers and acquisitions. Over his career at Lilly, he has held various leadership roles including general manager of Lilly Canada, president and general manager of Lilly China, president of Lilly USA, and president of Lilly Bio-Medicines. He was appointed CEO in January 2017 and became Chairman of the board in June 2017. Before joining Eli Lilly, Mr. Ricks worked as an account representative at IBM.
Lucas Montarce, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Lucas Montarce was appointed Eli Lilly's Chief Financial Officer in September 2024. He joined the company in 2001 and has since held a range of finance leadership roles. His previous positions include serving as CFO of Lilly Research Laboratories, Lilly International, and Elanco Health. Prior to his appointment as CFO, Mr. Montarce was the president and general manager for Lilly's Spain, Portugal, and Greece hub.
Patrik Jonsson, Executive Vice President and President, Lilly International
Patrik Jonsson joined Eli Lilly in 1990 as a sales representative in Sweden. Throughout his career, he has held numerous positions in sales, marketing, and general management internationally, including managing director of Sweden and Scandinavia, president and general manager of Eli Lilly Italia, and president and general manager of Lilly Japan. Most recently, he served as executive vice president and president of Lilly Cardiometabolic Health and president of Lilly USA, before transitioning to his current role as Executive Vice President and President of Lilly International in May 2025.
Ilya Yuffa, Executive Vice President and President, Lilly USA and Global Customer Capabilities
Ilya Yuffa began his career at Eli Lilly in 1996 as a financial analyst. He has held various positions in finance, business development, sales, and general management, including managing director of Lilly Israel and president and general manager of Lilly's Italy Hub. Previously, he served as executive vice president and president of Lilly International before assuming his current role as Executive Vice President and President of Lilly USA and Global Customer Capabilities in May 2025.
Daniel M. Skovronsky, M.D., Ph.D., Chief Scientific and Product Officer, and President, Lilly Research Laboratories
Daniel M. Skovronsky assumed an expanded role in November 2025 as Chief Scientific and Product Officer, and President of Lilly Research Laboratories. In this position, he oversees research and development, as well as global launches and product strategy for Cardiometabolic Health, Immunology, and Neuroscience. He reports directly to Eli Lilly's Chair and CEO, David A. Ricks.
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- Dependence on GLP-1 Franchise and Intense Competition/Price War: Eli Lilly's recent growth has been overwhelmingly reliant on its GLP-1 products, Mounjaro and Zepbound, which creates a strategic vulnerability. The company operates in a fiercely competitive pharmaceutical sector, facing significant challenges from established global players like Novo Nordisk, especially in the diabetes and obesity markets. There are immediate concerns about a "price war" for GLP-1 drugs, which could lead to margin erosion as competitors announce price cuts. Any adverse event or increased competition in this highly concentrated segment could significantly impact the company's valuation and revenue.
- Manufacturing and Supply Chain Challenges: The immense and unprecedented demand for Eli Lilly's GLP-1 products, Mounjaro and Zepbound, presents a significant manufacturing and supply chain challenge. Even with ongoing manufacturing expansions, there is execution risk in keeping up with this demand. Indicators such as a surging average inventory processing period and plummeting inventory turnover suggest potential issues in managing supply to meet this high demand.
- Patent Expirations and Loss of Exclusivity for Key Drugs: While newer blockbuster GLP-1 drugs like Zepbound and Mounjaro have patent protection extending to 2036 and 2041, respectively, including follow-on patents, other significant revenue drivers face upcoming expirations. For instance, Trulicity, a major diabetes drug and a key revenue source, is set to lose its U.S. patent exclusivity in 2027. Historically, Eli Lilly has faced challenges from patent expirations for several products, which can lead to a significant decline in revenues as generic alternatives enter the market.
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Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) - Addressable Market Sizes for Main Products:
- Diabetes Products (Basaglar, Humalog, Jardiance, Trajenta, Trulicity):
- Global Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Therapeutic Market: USD 19,514.5 million in 2024.
- Global SGLT2 Inhibitors Market (for Type 2 Diabetes and comorbidities like heart failure and chronic kidney disease): USD 19.2 billion in 2024.
- U.S. SGLT2 Inhibitors Market: USD 7.3 billion in 2024.
- Oncology Products (Alimta, Cyramza, Erbitux, Retevmo, Tyvyt, Verzenio):
- Global Breast Cancer Therapeutics Market: USD 31.5 billion in 2024.
- U.S. Breast Cancer Therapeutics Market: USD 11.9 billion in 2024.
- Global Stomach Cancer Treatment Market (Gastric Cancer): USD 5.40 billion in 2024.
- U.S. Gastric Cancer Market: USD 893.1 million in 2024.
- Global Thyroid Cancer Market (across 7 major markets including US, EU4, UK, and Japan): USD 2,696.0 million in 2024.
- North America Differentiated Thyroid Cancer Treatment Market: Over 40% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 201.00 million in 2024.
- Immunology Products (Olumiant, Taltz):
- Addressable markets for rheumatoid arthritis, plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and non-radiographic axial spondylarthritis could not be specifically sized with the available information. Null.
- Neuroscience Products (Cymbalta, Emgality, Zyprexa):
- Global Schizophrenia Drugs Market: USD 8.36 billion in 2024.
- U.S. Schizophrenia Market: Approximately USD 6 billion in 2024.
- COVID-19 Therapeutics (Bamlanivimab and etesevimab, Bebtelovimab):
- Addressable market for COVID-19 therapeutics could not be specifically sized with recent and relevant data. Null.
- Men's Health (Cialis):
- Global Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia (BPH) Treatment Market: USD 12.49 billion in 2024.
- North America Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia (BPH) Treatment Market: Approximately 35% of the global market in 2024.
- Addressable market for erectile dysfunction could not be specifically sized with the available information. Null.
- Bone Health (Forteo):
- Global Osteoporosis Treatment Market: USD 15.73 billion in 2024.
- U.S. Osteoporosis Drugs Market: USD 10.1 billion in 2024.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Eli Lilly (LLY)
- Continued Strong Performance of Tirzepatide Franchise (Mounjaro and Zepbound): Eli Lilly's current GLP-1 medications, Mounjaro (for type 2 diabetes) and Zepbound (for obesity), are expected to remain significant revenue drivers over the next 2-3 years. These drugs collectively generated substantial revenue in 2025 and continue to exhibit robust demand and sales growth, with Mounjaro's international expansion also contributing.
- Launch and Rapid Uptake of New Oral GLP-1 Therapies (e.g., Orforglipron): The anticipated approval and launch of new oral GLP-1 medications, particularly orforglipron, are projected to be a major catalyst for future revenue growth. Orforglipron is in late-stage clinical trials, with potential U.S. approval expected as early as Q2 2026. Its convenience as a pill and demonstrated superior efficacy compared to some competitors are expected to drive rapid adoption and significant sales. Another pipeline candidate, retatrutide, also holds considerable potential in the injectable weight-loss drug market.
- Expanded Manufacturing Capacity to Meet Surging Demand: Eli Lilly is making substantial investments in expanding its global manufacturing capabilities to address the high demand for its GLP-1 drugs and to prepare for new product launches. These multi-billion dollar investments in new and existing facilities are critical to ensuring adequate supply and supporting sustained revenue growth.
- Broader Market Access and Direct-to-Consumer Initiatives: Efforts to increase patient access through various channels are expected to fuel sales volume. This includes the expansion of the LillyDirect platform, direct-to-employer programs like Employer Connect, and anticipated broader coverage for obesity medicines through Medicare and Medicaid. These initiatives aim to reduce barriers to access and capture a larger share of the growing metabolic health market.
- Growth in Other Key Products and Pipeline Progression: Beyond the GLP-1 franchise, Eli Lilly's oncology portfolio, including products like Verzenio and Jaypirca, continues to contribute to revenue growth. The company also has a robust pipeline with numerous programs in late-stage development across various therapeutic areas, indicating additional potential future revenue streams.
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Share Repurchases
- Eli Lilly approved a new $15 billion share repurchase program in December 2024, expected to be executed over the next three years.
- This program followed the completion of a $5 billion share repurchase program in the fourth quarter of 2024.
- The company's annual share buybacks were $4.108 billion in 2025, $2.5 billion in 2024, and $750 million in 2023.
Share Issuance
- The number of outstanding shares showed a slight decline of 0.28% in 2025 to 895,018,757, and a minor increase of 0.09% in 2024 to 0.904 billion, indicating no significant share issuance.
Outbound Investments
- Eli Lilly has actively pursued acquisitions, including Orna for $2.4 billion (February 2026), Ventyx Biosciences for $1.2 billion (January 2026), and SiteOne Therapeutics for $1 billion (May 2025).
- In 2023, major acquisitions included Point Biopharma for $1.4 billion for radiopharmaceutical development, and DICE Therapeutics for $2.4 billion to expand its immunology portfolio.
- The company plans to invest up to $250 million over eight years in an expanded collaboration with Purdue University to accelerate pharmaceutical innovation, focusing on AI-powered drug discovery and supply chain resilience.
Capital Expenditures
- Eli Lilly's capital expenditures increased significantly, reaching $7.841 billion in 2025, up from $5.058 billion in 2024 and $3.448 billion in 2023.
- The company has committed over $55 billion globally to capital expansion since 2020, with over $50 billion specifically in the U.S., primarily to expand manufacturing capacity for GLP-1 therapies and other pipeline medicines.
- Recent and planned major manufacturing investments include a new $9 billion commitment at its Lebanon, Indiana, site, a $3.5 billion facility in Lehigh Valley, Pennsylvania, and a $3 billion investment over ten years to expand supply chain capacity in China.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 228.62 |
| Mkt Cap | 338.1 |
| Rev LTM | 64,541 |
| Op Inc LTM | 18,176 |
| FCF LTM | 12,242 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11,467 |
| CFO LTM | 19,185 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 14,679 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 31.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 39.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 27.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 25.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 27.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 19.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 338.1 |
| P/S | 5.5 |
| P/Op Inc | 20.4 |
| P/EBIT | 21.7 |
| P/E | 29.4 |
| P/CFO | 18.0 |
| Total Yield | 6.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 30.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 62.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -13.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 2.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 5.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -8.6% |
Comparison Analyses
FDA Approved Drugs Data
Expand for More| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA220934 | FOUNDAYO | orforglipron calcium | tablet | 4012026 | 18.5% | 18.5% | 18.5% | 18.5% | 18.5% |
| NDA218881 | INLURIYO | imlunestrant tosylate | tablet | 9252025 | 50.9% | 25.9% | 58.8% | 58.8% | 58.8% |
| BLA761306 | EBGLYSS | lebrikizumab-lbkz | injectable | 9132024 | -14.4% | -11.6% | -17.6% | 23.8% | 23.8% |
| BLA761248 | KISUNLA | donanemab-azbt | injectable | 7022024 | -2.3% | -14.6% | -13.5% | 26.3% | 26.3% |
| NDA218160 | RETEVMO | selpercatinib | capsule | 4102024 | 23.5% | 21.1% | -4.8% | 25.0% | 50.5% |
| NDA217806 | ZEPBOUND | tirzepatide | solution | 11082023 | 17.4% | 25.6% | 29.7% | 51.5% | 85.9% |
| BLA761279 | OMVOH | mirikizumab-mrkz | injectable | 10262023 | 10.7% | 28.1% | 58.2% | 47.4% | 102.6% |
| NDA215866 | MOUNJARO | tirzepatide | solution | 5132022 | 6.0% | 21.2% | 50.7% | 165.2% | 300.3% |
| BLA761215 | REZVOGLAR | insulin glargine-aglr | injectable | 12172021 | 8.0% | 9.6% | 36.4% | 119.0% | 339.9% |
| BLA761109 | LYUMJEV | insulin lispro-aabc | injectable | 6152020 | 5.8% | 12.7% | 60.9% | 113.9% | 752.2% |
| ... | |||||||||
| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA220934 | FOUNDAYO | orforglipron calcium | tablet | 4012026 | 18.5% | 18.5% | 18.5% | 18.5% | 18.5% |
| NDA218881 | INLURIYO | imlunestrant tosylate | tablet | 9252025 | 50.9% | 25.9% | 58.8% | 58.8% | 58.8% |
| BLA761306 | EBGLYSS | lebrikizumab-lbkz | injectable | 9132024 | -14.4% | -11.6% | -17.6% | 23.8% | 23.8% |
| BLA761248 | KISUNLA | donanemab-azbt | injectable | 7022024 | -2.3% | -14.6% | -13.5% | 26.3% | 26.3% |
| NDA218160 | RETEVMO | selpercatinib | capsule | 4102024 | 23.5% | 21.1% | -4.8% | 25.0% | 50.5% |
| NDA217806 | ZEPBOUND | tirzepatide | solution | 11082023 | 17.4% | 25.6% | 29.7% | 51.5% | 85.9% |
| BLA761279 | OMVOH | mirikizumab-mrkz | injectable | 10262023 | 10.7% | 28.1% | 58.2% | 47.4% | 102.6% |
| NDA215866 | MOUNJARO | tirzepatide | solution | 5132022 | 6.0% | 21.2% | 50.7% | 165.2% | 300.3% |
| BLA761215 | REZVOGLAR | insulin glargine-aglr | injectable | 12172021 | 8.0% | 9.6% | 36.4% | 119.0% | 339.9% |
| BLA761109 | LYUMJEV | insulin lispro-aabc | injectable | 6152020 | 5.8% | 12.7% | 60.9% | 113.9% | 752.2% |
| NDA213246 | RETEVMO | selpercatinib | capsule | 5082020 | 0.1% | -6.1% | 29.7% | 100.1% | 689.4% |
| NDA211280 | REYVOW | lasmiditan succinate | tablet | 10112019 | 28.1% | 36.0% | 47.8% | 124.1% | 1,030.5% |
| BLA761063 | EMGALITY | galcanezumab-gnlm | injectable | 9272018 | 6.3% | 22.1% | 7.6% | 46.9% | 1,073.3% |
| NDA207924 | OLUMIANT | baricitinib | tablet | 5312018 | 24.7% | 39.0% | 39.3% | 87.7% | 1,380.2% |
| NDA208855 | VERZENIO | abemaciclib | tablet | 2262018 | 3.9% | 32.7% | 59.1% | 74.2% | 1,480.7% |
| NDA208716 | VERZENIO | abemaciclib | tablet | 9282017 | 0.7% | -7.7% | 29.6% | 38.7% | 1,411.6% |
| BLA761038 | LARTRUVO | olaratumab | injectable | 10192016 | -0.7% | 4.3% | 12.8% | 50.1% | 1,578.7% |
| BLA125521 | TALTZ | ixekizumab | injectable | 3222016 | 1.6% | 12.5% | 20.4% | 12.2% | 1,757.7% |
| BLA205692 | BASAGLAR | insulin glargine | solution | 12162015 | -15.4% | -13.4% | -15.1% | 5.7% | 1,459.1% |
| BLA125547 | PORTRAZZA | necitumumab | injectable | 11242015 | -11.8% | -9.4% | -16.8% | 5.1% | 1,503.9% |
| BLA205747 | HUMALOG KWIKPEN | insulin lispro recombinant | solution | 5262015 | 5.9% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 11.0% | 1,732.9% |
| BLA125469 | TRULICITY | dulaglutide | injectable | 9182014 | 9.6% | 13.1% | 36.6% | 24.8% | 1,989.3% |
| BLA125477 | CYRAMZA | ramucirumab | injectable | 4212014 | 5.4% | 5.4% | 22.3% | 34.1% | 2,223.6% |
| NDA022504 | AXIRON | testosterone | solution, metered | 11232010 | 2.4% | 16.3% | 10.4% | 53.7% | 4,700.0% |
| NDA022332 | ADCIRCA | tadalafil | tablet | 5222009 | -1.2% | 9.6% | 2.1% | 25.0% | 5,078.5% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery, development, manufacturing, marketing, and sales of pharmaceutical products worldwide | 65,179 | 45,043 | 34,124 | 28,541 | 28,318 |
| Total | 65,179 | 45,043 | 34,124 | 28,541 | 28,318 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery, development, manufacturing, marketing, and sales of pharmaceutical products worldwide | 20,640 | 10,590 | 5,240 |
| Total | 20,640 | 10,590 | 5,240 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| Discovery, development, manufacturing, marketing, and sales of pharmaceutical products worldwide | 78,715 | 64,006 |
| Total | 78,715 | 64,006 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $1,129.35 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1,010.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/01/1972 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -2.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $999.72 | $957.74 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 13.0% | 17.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 38.2% | 38.2% |
| Downside Capture | 45.08 | 56.01 |
| Upside Capture | 71.68 | 77.95 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 29.3% | 17.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.38 | 0.67 | 0.91 | 0.64 | 0.57 | 0.69 |
| Up Beta | -2.29 | 0.79 | 1.41 | 1.68 | 0.77 | 0.59 |
| Down Beta | -0.30 | -1.10 | 0.73 | 0.50 | -0.01 | 0.72 |
| Up Capture | 155% | 103% | 64% | 23% | 82% | 65% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 19 | 27 | 56 | 136 | 410 |
| Down Capture | -182% | 39% | 79% | 30% | 62% | 85% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 22 | 36 | 68 | 114 | 341 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LLY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLY | 40.2% | 38.0% | 0.97 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 13.8% | 15.0% | 0.65 | 67.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.6% | 12.4% | 1.62 | 16.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 27.1% | 27.5% | 0.86 | 8.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 28.6% | 19.1% | 1.19 | -17.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.2% | 13.5% | 0.60 | 16.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -40.1% | 42.2% | -1.10 | 12.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LLY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLY | 40.0% | 32.5% | 1.09 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 6.3% | 14.8% | 0.24 | 59.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.9% | 17.1% | 0.63 | 31.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 18.2% | 0.78 | 5.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.9% | 19.4% | 0.30 | -1.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.5% | 18.8% | 0.03 | 24.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.7% | 54.4% | 0.44 | 8.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LLY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLY | 33.3% | 30.2% | 1.01 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.6% | 16.6% | 0.47 | 60.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 39.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.8% | 16.1% | 0.66 | 5.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.4% | 18.0% | 0.28 | 5.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 30.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 59.8% | 66.8% | 1.00 | 7.1% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/30/2026 | 9.8% | 16.0% | 30.0% |
| 2/4/2026 | 10.3% | 2.1% | -1.8% |
| 10/30/2025 | 3.8% | 13.8% | 30.2% |
| 8/7/2025 | -14.1% | -11.5% | -2.4% |
| 5/1/2025 | -11.7% | -13.6% | -17.8% |
| 2/6/2025 | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.4% |
| 10/30/2024 | -6.3% | -10.8% | -12.6% |
| 8/8/2024 | 9.5% | 20.7% | 17.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 15 | 17 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% |
| Median Negative | -3.5% | -4.6% | -6.7% |
| Max Positive | 14.9% | 20.7% | 30.2% |
| Max Negative | -14.1% | -13.6% | -17.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/30/2026 | 9.8% | 16.0% | 30.0% |
| 2/4/2026 | 10.3% | 2.1% | -1.8% |
| 10/30/2025 | 3.8% | 13.8% | 30.2% |
| 8/7/2025 | -14.1% | -11.5% | -2.4% |
| 5/1/2025 | -11.7% | -13.6% | -17.8% |
| 2/6/2025 | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.4% |
| 10/30/2024 | -6.3% | -10.8% | -12.6% |
| 8/8/2024 | 9.5% | 20.7% | 17.1% |
| 4/30/2024 | 6.0% | 4.0% | 10.3% |
| 2/6/2024 | -0.2% | 4.4% | 10.6% |
| 11/2/2023 | 4.7% | 11.7% | 5.5% |
| 8/8/2023 | 14.9% | 18.7% | 23.6% |
| 2/2/2023 | -3.5% | -0.5% | -6.7% |
| 11/1/2022 | -2.6% | 0.8% | 2.8% |
| 8/4/2022 | -2.6% | -2.9% | -1.2% |
| 4/28/2022 | 4.3% | 3.4% | 10.3% |
| 2/3/2022 | -2.4% | -3.0% | 5.2% |
| 12/15/2021 | 10.4% | 6.2% | 0.1% |
| 10/26/2021 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 7.2% |
| 8/3/2021 | 3.8% | 8.3% | 5.1% |
| 4/27/2021 | -2.7% | -0.7% | 6.9% |
| 12/15/2020 | 6.0% | 6.9% | 18.2% |
| 10/27/2020 | -6.9% | -7.1% | 2.8% |
| 7/30/2020 | -5.4% | -4.6% | -7.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 15 | 17 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% |
| Median Negative | -3.5% | -4.6% | -6.7% |
| Max Positive | 14.9% | 20.7% | 30.2% |
| Max Negative | -14.1% | -13.6% | -17.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/27/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/17/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/28/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/31/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/01/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/19/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/25/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/02/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 6/8/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 82.00 Bil | 83.50 Bil | 85.00 Bil | 2.5% | Raised | Guidance: 81.50 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Performance Margin | 47.0% | 47.75% | 48.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 46.75% for 2026 |
| 2026 EPS | 35.5 | 36.2 | 37 | 5.8% | Raised | Guidance: 34.2 for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 80.00 Bil | 81.50 Bil | 83.00 Bil | 28.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 63.25 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Performance Margin | 46.0% | 46.75% | 47.5% | 2.8% | 1.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 45.5% for 2025 |
| 2026 Earnings per Share | 33.5 | 34.2 | 35 | 46.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 23.4 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Tax Rate | 18.0% | 18.5% | 19.0% | ||||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/16/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yuffa, Ilya | EVP&Pres, LLY USA&Global Capab | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 1150.77 | 2,500 | 2,876,925 | 34,297,677 | Form |
| 2 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 995.36 | 15,828 | 15,754,537 | 91,454,696,564 | Form | |
| 3 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 1085.01 | 1,390 | 1,508,165 | 100,026,215,790 | Form | |
| 4 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 12302025 | 1085.04 | 3,593 | 3,898,531 | 100,029,936,528 | Form | |
| 5 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 12292025 | 1085.17 | 2,629 | 2,852,920 | 100,046,557,846 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yuffa, Ilya | EVP&Pres, LLY USA&Global Capab | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 1150.77 | 2,500 | 2,876,925 | 34,297,677 | Form |
| 2 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 995.36 | 15,828 | 15,754,537 | 91,454,696,564 | Form | |
| 3 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 1085.01 | 1,390 | 1,508,165 | 100,026,215,790 | Form | |
| 4 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 12302025 | 1085.04 | 3,593 | 3,898,531 | 100,029,936,528 | Form | |
| 5 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 12292025 | 1085.17 | 2,629 | 2,852,920 | 100,046,557,846 | Form | |
| 6 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 12292025 | 1085.04 | 240 | 260,409 | 100,036,964,206 | Form | |
| 7 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11262025 | 1109.30 | 15,632 | 17,340,625 | 102,274,384,375 | Form | |
| 8 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11262025 | 1095.35 | 147,061 | 161,082,640 | 101,004,689,381 | Form | |
| 9 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 1068.52 | 142,307 | 152,058,091 | 98,688,295,322 | Form | |
| 10 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 1058.66 | 105,326 | 111,504,098 | 97,927,858,168 | Form | |
| 11 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11212025 | 1051.66 | 37,148 | 39,067,117 | 97,391,524,342 | Form | |
| 12 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11202025 | 1051.17 | 167,526 | 176,098,702 | 97,385,287,986 | Form | |
| 13 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 1034.78 | 60,213 | 62,306,969 | 96,039,609,306 | Form | |
| 14 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 1030.68 | 9,886 | 10,189,269 | 95,721,199,939 | Form | |
| 15 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11172025 | 425738.48 | 178,295 | 75,907,041,787 | 39,543,474,018,274 | Form | |
| 16 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11142025 | 1030.26 | 46,606 | 48,016,098 | 95,875,981,145 | Form | |
| 17 | Zakrowski, Donald A | SVP, Finance, & CAO | Direct | Sell | 11132025 | 1010.50 | 1,000 | 1,010,500 | 2,869,475 | Form |
| 18 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11132025 | 1011.18 | 305,000 | 308,411,204 | 94,148,312,193 | Form | |
| 19 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 986.64 | 283,131 | 279,347,680 | 92,163,766,311 | Form | |
| 20 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 972.52 | 16,869 | 16,405,396 | 91,120,123,216 | Form | |
| 21 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11062025 | 951.56 | 40,432 | 38,473,442 | 89,172,496,032 | Form | |
| 22 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11062025 | 933.26 | 179,042 | 167,092,104 | 87,495,042,724 | Form | |
| 23 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11052025 | 910.72 | 526 | 479,038 | 85,545,158,034 | Form | |
| 24 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 888.83 | 300,000 | 266,648,921 | 83,489,535,201 | Form | |
| 25 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11032025 | 863.35 | 301,342 | 260,165,031 | 81,355,620,762 | Form | |
| 26 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 10142025 | 863.24 | 3,658 | 3,157,722 | 81,604,692,739 | Form | |
| 27 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 10102025 | 852.49 | 10,602 | 9,038,055 | 80,591,439,893 | Form | |
| 28 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 10092025 | 850.27 | 101,420 | 86,234,874 | 80,391,428,051 | Form | |
| 29 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 10082025 | 848.01 | 26,795 | 22,722,401 | 80,263,203,841 | Form | |
| 30 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 10072025 | 850.22 | 161,183 | 137,041,657 | 80,495,634,020 | Form | |
| 31 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 10062025 | 837.93 | 192,404 | 161,220,401 | 79,466,412,630 | Form | |
| 32 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 10032025 | 821.55 | 112,596 | 92,503,361 | 78,071,487,947 | Form | |
| 33 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 10022025 | 821.47 | 215,822 | 177,290,448 | 78,155,906,007 | Form | |
| 34 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 10022025 | 794.15 | 135,193 | 107,363,016 | 75,728,040,835 | Form | |
| 35 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 10012025 | 763.39 | 113,694 | 86,793,274 | 72,898,741,331 | Form | |
| 36 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 9222025 | 763.10 | 23,665 | 18,058,643 | 72,956,985,099 | Form | |
| 37 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 9192025 | 764.65 | 106,626 | 81,531,959 | 73,124,096,657 | Form | |
| 38 | Zakrowski, Donald A | SVP, Finance, & CAO | Direct | Sell | 8282025 | 734.93 | 1,000 | 734,930 | 2,821,881 | Form |
| 39 | Montarce, Lucas | EVP & CFO | Direct | Buy | 8152025 | 691.79 | 715 | 494,627 | 10,158,695 | Form |
| 40 | Alvarez, Ralph | Trust | Buy | 8142025 | 660.25 | 758 | 500,473 | 500,473 | Form | |
| 41 | Van, Naarden Jacob | EVP & Pres., Lilly Oncology | Direct | Buy | 8132025 | 647.36 | 1,000 | 647,360 | 13,311,007 | Form |
| 42 | Ricks, David A | President, Chair, and CEO | Direct | Buy | 8122025 | 644.77 | 1,632 | 1,052,263 | 352,431,488 | Form |
| 43 | Skovronsky, Daniel | EVP, CSO & Pres. LRL & LLY Imm | Direct | Buy | 8122025 | 634.40 | 1,000 | 634,405 | 87,332,263 | Form |
| 44 | Sulzberger, Gabrielle | Direct | Buy | 8122025 | 641.18 | 117 | 75,018 | 1,733,150 | Form | |
| 45 | Fyrwald, J Erik | Direct | Buy | 8122025 | 642.33 | 1,565 | 1,005,242 | 47,903,349 | Form | |
| 46 | Yuffa, Ilya | EVP&Pres, LLY USA&Global Capab | Direct | Sell | 8122025 | 627.01 | 1,250 | 783,762 | 16,465,264 | Form |
| 47 | Jackson, Jamere | Direct | Buy | 8082025 | 639.56 | 200 | 127,913 | 6,012,995 | Form | |
| 48 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 7252025 | 805.07 | 280,000 | 225,419,259 | 77,074,852,343 | Form |
LLY Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The investment thesis presents a highly attractive, probability-adjusted skew of 2.33x. This is driven by a 'High Conviction Bull' setup where the competitive moat is actively widening in a secularly growing market. While the downside risk of multiple compression is real, the 70% probability assigned to the upside case—based on overwhelming evidence of market share capture and operational execution—makes the risk-reward profile compelling, justifying an OVERWEIGHT rating.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
High-Beta CompounderEli Lilly fits the 'High-Beta Compounder' archetype due to its explosive, accelerating revenue growth driven by a new product cycle (GLP-1s), a widening competitive moat against its primary rival, and a corresponding high-premium valuation. The investment thesis hinges on the durability of this hyper-growth phase.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary long thesis is centered on Eli Lilly's capture of the majority share in the rapidly expanding GLP-1 market (diabetes and obesity) through its tirzepatide franchise. This is enabled by a superior clinical efficacy profile versus its main competitor and a massive, preemptive capital investment in wholly-owned US manufacturing, mitigating the industry's primary bottleneck.
- Eli Lilly's GLP-1 market share increased to 60.5% in Q4 2025, with Mounjaro and Zepbound sales surging 110% and 123% YoY, respectively.
- The company has committed ~$27 billion to new US manufacturing sites, a potentially larger and more focused investment than Novo Nordisk's ~$16.5 billion acquisition of Catalent facilities.
- Core patents on tirzepatide extend to 2036-2041, providing a significantly longer runway of exclusivity than Novo Nordisk's semaglutide, which faces key patent expirations starting in 2026 in some markets.
- Company guidance for FY26 revenue is $80-$83 billion, representing ~25% growth and well above prior consensus, indicating high confidence in continued momentum.
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant friction is the intense and structural pressure on net drug pricing from governments (via Medicare negotiation) and Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs). The high volume of the GLP-1 drugs makes them a primary target for cost containment, forcing Lilly to provide substantial rebates and discounts to ensure broad market access.
- Management has explicitly guided for a 'low to mid-teens' percentage drag on revenue growth in 2026 due to lower realized prices.
- In Q4 2025, despite a 46% increase in volume, the company saw a 5% decrease in realized prices, demonstrating the direct impact of these negotiations.
- Legacy drugs like Trulicity and Verzenio have already been included in the Medicare price negotiation list under the Inflation Reduction Act, setting a precedent for future negotiations on flagship products.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Combined Mounjaro & Zepbound Volume Growth YoY | > 35% | This is the primary driver of the thesis. Growth must remain exceptionally strong to offset the known pricing headwinds and justify the premium valuation. A drop below this level would signal a potential narrative shift. |
| Realized Price Decline | Monitor for declines greater than -15% | Management has guided for a 'low to mid-teens' decline. Any acceleration beyond this range would signal that payer pressure is worse than expected, directly threatening revenue and EPS forecasts. |
| U.S. Incretin Market Share (New Prescriptions) | > 60% | This leading indicator measures the competitive trajectory against Novo Nordisk. Continued share gains confirm the superior clinical profile is translating into commercial dominance. A stall or reversal would be a major red flag. |
Execution vs. Expectation: Manufacturing Scale and Pricing Power
BULL VIEW
Massive capital investment in new, wholly-owned US manufacturing facilities will secure supply, while best-in-class drug efficacy will maintain formulary access and pricing power.
CORE TENSION
Can Lilly scale its manufacturing fast enough to meet insatiable GLP-1 demand without quality issues, while defending prices against intense payer and political pressure?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The Neutral verdict is supported by the direct conflict between a 46% volume surge in Q4 2025 and a simultaneous 5% decline in realized prices, encapsulating the bull/bear tension.
BEAR VIEW
Rapid manufacturing scale-up invites execution risk (FDA scrutiny, delays). Payer consolidation and political pressure will force price concessions, compressing margins sooner than expected.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Call: Manufacturing & Supply Update Watch: Any reports of new Zepbound/Mounjaro shortages or FDA Form 483 observations at key manufacturing sites. Volume growth vs. guidance. |
June 5-8, 2026 | Competitor Data at ADA Conference Watch: Detailed weight loss and safety data from Novo Nordisk's CagriSema REIMAGINE 2 trial versus Zepbound. |
Anytime (Ongoing) | Real-World Safety Data for Donanemab Watch: Incidence rate of Amyloid-Related Imaging Abnormalities (ARIA) from the FDA's FAERS database or medical journals. |
Ongoing | Valuation Compression from Macro Shift Watch: 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield definitively breaking and holding above the 4.5% level. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Aug 7, 2025 | Legal: Texas AG Lawsuit Filed Details: The Texas Attorney General filed a lawsuit alleging illegal kickbacks related to Mounjaro and Zepbound, creating significant legal and compliance risk for the company's core franchise. | Plummeted 14.1% $743.64 -> $638.51 |
Sep 16, 2025 | Legal: Medicaid Fraud Case Ruling Details: Despite losing an appeal related to underpaying Medicaid rebates resulting in damages of nearly $184 million, the stock rose as the market had already priced in the negative outcome. | Rose significantly by 2.2% $747.09 -> $763.58 |
Nov 4, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Report Details: Reported strong results driven by continued GLP-1 momentum, demonstrating accelerating market share capture from competitor Novo Nordisk and raising forward guidance. | Modest 1.2% gain $895.21 -> $905.53 |
Dec 15, 2025 | Strategic: Donanemab FDA Approval Details: The FDA approved Donanemab for early Alzheimer's disease, marking the launch of a major new product, though its commercial potential is debated due to safety concerns. | Rose significantly by 3.4% $1027.51 -> $1062.19 |
Feb 3, 2026 | Competitor Data Announcement Details: Competitor Novo Nordisk announced positive headline results for its combination drug CagriSema, signaling a credible future threat to Zepbound's clinical superiority. | Fell notably by 3.9% $1044.13 -> $1003.46 |
Feb 4, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings & Guidance Details: Reported a significant revenue and EPS beat driven by Mounjaro and Zepbound. Issued strong 2026 guidance of $80-$83B, well above prior consensus. | Surged +10.3% $1003.46 -> $1107.12 |
Position Sizing
4%-6%
NORMAL
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (3.3x S&P). While visibility is high, the Neutral sentiment and Expensive valuation limit conviction. Sizing is capped at Normal to balance the strong growth story with high volatility.
Diversification Alternatives
VRTX
INDUSTRYHas a durable monopoly in Cystic Fibrosis, providing stable cash flow. Less concentrated franchise risk and a more reasonable valuation compared to LLY.
CRMD
SECTORA pure-play on the successful commercial launch of a single niche product (Defencath). This avoids LLY's macro valuation risk and complex global manufacturing challenges.
Eli Lilly is re-rating from a diversified pharmaceutical company into a dominant growth compounder, driven by a near-duopoly in the ~$150B+ GLP-1 obesity/diabetes market and a high-impact pipeline in Alzheimer's disease.
Filter all news through the lens of GLP-1 market share defense/expansion and Alzheimer's pipeline progression.
Zepbound/Mounjaro prescription volume growth outpacing Novo Nordisk's Wegovy/Ozempic; Positive Phase 3 data or FDA approval for pipeline drugs Orforglipron, Retatrutide, or Donanemab; Manufacturing capacity expansion announcements.
Sustained market share losses to Novo Nordisk in the GLP-1 class; Negative clinical trial results or FDA rejection for key pipeline assets; Significant government-imposed price controls on obesity drugs impacting gross margin.
Quarterly sales fluctuations of legacy drugs (e.g., legacy insulins); Early-stage (Phase 1) pipeline announcements; Minor patent litigation on non-core assets.
Repricing Catalyst
The successful commercialization of Zepbound for obesity, which, combined with Mounjaro for diabetes, has established a dominant position in the GLP-1 market, projected to exceed $150B by 2030. [10] This is coupled with the anticipated 2026 launch of oral GLP-1 agonist Orforglipron, which has peak sales estimates exceeding $30-$40 billion, potentially expanding the market to injection-averse patients. [8, 9]
Diabetes & Obesity (GLP-1 Franchise)
$46.8B TTM (61% of Total) · 83.2% MarginWhat It Is
Tirzepatide (marketed as Mounjaro for Type 2 Diabetes and Zepbound for Obesity); Dulaglutide (marketed as Trulicity for Type 2 Diabetes).
Who Pays & How
End-payers are health insurers, governments (Medicare/Medicaid), and patients who pay for clinically superior, patent-protected therapies that demonstrate significant efficacy in glucose control and weight loss. Major US drug wholesalers (AmerisourceBergen, Cardinal Health, McKesson) are the primary direct customers, but are intermediaries.
Competition
Oncology
$6.4B TTM (8% of Total) · 83.2% MarginWhat It Is
Verzenio (abemaciclib) for breast cancer; Cyramza (ramucirumab) for various cancers; Jaypirca (pirtobrutinib) for mantle cell lymphoma and CLL.
Who Pays & How
Insurers and government health systems pay for patented drugs that extend survival or improve quality of life for cancer patients, typically prescribed by specialist oncologists.
Competition
Next-Generation Pipeline (Alzheimer's & New Obesity Drugs)
$0.0B TTM (% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Donanemab (Alzheimer's Disease), Orforglipron (oral GLP-1 for Obesity), Retatrutide (GGG tri-agonist for Obesity).
Who Pays & How
Future payers (insurers, governments) would pay for a drug that can demonstrably slow the progression of Alzheimer's disease, a massive unmet medical need. For new obesity drugs, payers will cover more convenient (oral) or more effective options.
Competition
Other Established Products
$24.0B TTM (31% of Total) · 83.2% MarginWhat It Is
Immunology drugs (Taltz, Omvoh); Neuroscience drugs (Emgality, Cymbalta); Other diabetes products (Jardiance, Humalog); Other various products (Cialis, Forteo).
Who Pays & How
Insurers and patients pay for established, branded drugs across a wide range of chronic and acute conditions, facing competition from generics for older, off-patent products.
Competition
Industry Resources
| Health Care Resources |
| U.S. National Library of Medicine |
| ClinicalTrials.gov |
| Modern Healthcare |
| Healthcare Dive |
| Fierce Healthcare |
| Health Affairs |
| Health Data Management |
| FDA Tracker |
| Pharmaceuticals Resources |
| Fierce Pharma |
| Pharm Exec |
| Endpoints News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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