Eli Lilly (LLY)
Market Price (11/1/2026): $1417.05 | Market Cap: $1.3 TrilInvestor Relations Sector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals
Eli Lilly (LLY)
Market Price (11/1/2026): $1417.05Market Cap: $1.3 TrilSector: Health CareIndustry: Pharmaceuticals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 51% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 31 Bil, FCF LTM is 12 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 11 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 29x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 41x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 46x Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.7% Key risksLLY key risks include [1] the eventual patent expiration of its blockbuster GLP-1 drugs, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 51% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 31 Bil, FCF LTM is 12 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 11 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 29x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 41x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 46x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.7% |
| Key risksLLY key risks include [1] the eventual patent expiration of its blockbuster GLP-1 drugs, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Updated on 10/31/2026
Eli Lilly (LLY) stock has gained about 25% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Eli Lilly reported exceptional financial results for its third fiscal quarter of 2026, significantly beating Wall Street expectations and raising its full-year guidance.
The company announced Q3 2026 revenue of $24.4 billion, a 38.6% year-over-year increase, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $22.61 billion by 7.9%. Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) reached $7.48, beating consensus estimates of $6.61 by 13.2%. Furthermore, Eli Lilly raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance for the third time this year, to a range of $91 billion to $92 billion, up from its previous outlook of $85 billion to $87 billion.
2. The company's GLP-1 portfolio, notably Mounjaro and Zepbound, continued its explosive sales growth, driving the substantial revenue beat.
Mounjaro, approved for type 2 diabetes, generated $10.7 billion in revenue, exceeding Wall Street expectations of $10.16 billion and marking a 65% increase year-over-year. Zepbound, approved for obesity, brought in $5.3 billion to $5.4 billion, surpassing estimates of $5.0 billion to $5.09 billion and showing a 48% to 49% growth. Combined, these two blockbuster drugs accounted for 66% of Eli Lilly's total revenue and 88% of the year-over-year revenue gain in fiscal Q3 2026.
Show more
Eli Lilly (LLY) stock has gained about 25% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Eli Lilly reported exceptional financial results for its third fiscal quarter of 2026, significantly beating Wall Street expectations and raising its full-year guidance.
The company announced Q3 2026 revenue of $24.4 billion, a 38.6% year-over-year increase, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $22.61 billion by 7.9%. Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) reached $7.48, beating consensus estimates of $6.61 by 13.2%. Furthermore, Eli Lilly raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance for the third time this year, to a range of $91 billion to $92 billion, up from its previous outlook of $85 billion to $87 billion.
2. The company's GLP-1 portfolio, notably Mounjaro and Zepbound, continued its explosive sales growth, driving the substantial revenue beat.
Mounjaro, approved for type 2 diabetes, generated $10.7 billion in revenue, exceeding Wall Street expectations of $10.16 billion and marking a 65% increase year-over-year. Zepbound, approved for obesity, brought in $5.3 billion to $5.4 billion, surpassing estimates of $5.0 billion to $5.09 billion and showing a 48% to 49% growth. Combined, these two blockbuster drugs accounted for 66% of Eli Lilly's total revenue and 88% of the year-over-year revenue gain in fiscal Q3 2026.
Show more
Updated on 10/31/2026
Eli Lilly (LLY) stock has gained about 25% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Eli Lilly reported exceptional financial results for its third fiscal quarter of 2026, significantly beating Wall Street expectations and raising its full-year guidance.
The company announced Q3 2026 revenue of $24.4 billion, a 38.6% year-over-year increase, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $22.61 billion by 7.9%. Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) reached $7.48, beating consensus estimates of $6.61 by 13.2%. Furthermore, Eli Lilly raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance for the third time this year, to a range of $91 billion to $92 billion, up from its previous outlook of $85 billion to $87 billion.
2. The company's GLP-1 portfolio, notably Mounjaro and Zepbound, continued its explosive sales growth, driving the substantial revenue beat.
Mounjaro, approved for type 2 diabetes, generated $10.7 billion in revenue, exceeding Wall Street expectations of $10.16 billion and marking a 65% increase year-over-year. Zepbound, approved for obesity, brought in $5.3 billion to $5.4 billion, surpassing estimates of $5.0 billion to $5.09 billion and showing a 48% to 49% growth. Combined, these two blockbuster drugs accounted for 66% of Eli Lilly's total revenue and 88% of the year-over-year revenue gain in fiscal Q3 2026.
3. Positive Phase 3 clinical trial results for its next-generation metabolic drug, retatrutide, reinforced the strength of Eli Lilly's pipeline.
On October 28, 2026, Eli Lilly announced that retatrutide, its experimental triple-acting metabolic drug, outperformed Novo Nordisk's Ozempic in a head-to-head Phase 3 trial in adults with type 2 diabetes. Retatrutide demonstrated superior blood sugar reduction, lowering A1C by an average of 2.2 percentage points at 80 weeks compared to Ozempic's 1.8 percentage points. Additionally, patients on retatrutide achieved more than double the average weight loss, losing approximately 20% of their body weight, compared to 9.4% for those on Ozempic.
4. The expanded coverage for weight-loss drugs through the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge Program significantly boosted demand for Eli Lilly's products.
The program, which commenced on July 1, 2026, and offers Medicare coverage for weight-loss drugs for the first time in decades, contributed to a substantial increase in Eli Lilly's sales. Over 500,000 older adults have been prescribed GLP-1 drugs for weight loss through this program, with approximately 70% of new Bridge patients starting on a Lilly drug. This initiative is projected to contribute an estimated $4 billion to Eli Lilly's revenue by the end of 2026.
Show less
Eli Lilly (LLY) stock has gained about 25% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Eli Lilly reported exceptional financial results for its third fiscal quarter of 2026, significantly beating Wall Street expectations and raising its full-year guidance.
The company announced Q3 2026 revenue of $24.4 billion, a 38.6% year-over-year increase, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $22.61 billion by 7.9%. Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) reached $7.48, beating consensus estimates of $6.61 by 13.2%. Furthermore, Eli Lilly raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance for the third time this year, to a range of $91 billion to $92 billion, up from its previous outlook of $85 billion to $87 billion.
2. The company's GLP-1 portfolio, notably Mounjaro and Zepbound, continued its explosive sales growth, driving the substantial revenue beat.
Mounjaro, approved for type 2 diabetes, generated $10.7 billion in revenue, exceeding Wall Street expectations of $10.16 billion and marking a 65% increase year-over-year. Zepbound, approved for obesity, brought in $5.3 billion to $5.4 billion, surpassing estimates of $5.0 billion to $5.09 billion and showing a 48% to 49% growth. Combined, these two blockbuster drugs accounted for 66% of Eli Lilly's total revenue and 88% of the year-over-year revenue gain in fiscal Q3 2026.
3. Positive Phase 3 clinical trial results for its next-generation metabolic drug, retatrutide, reinforced the strength of Eli Lilly's pipeline.
On October 28, 2026, Eli Lilly announced that retatrutide, its experimental triple-acting metabolic drug, outperformed Novo Nordisk's Ozempic in a head-to-head Phase 3 trial in adults with type 2 diabetes. Retatrutide demonstrated superior blood sugar reduction, lowering A1C by an average of 2.2 percentage points at 80 weeks compared to Ozempic's 1.8 percentage points. Additionally, patients on retatrutide achieved more than double the average weight loss, losing approximately 20% of their body weight, compared to 9.4% for those on Ozempic.
4. The expanded coverage for weight-loss drugs through the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge Program significantly boosted demand for Eli Lilly's products.
The program, which commenced on July 1, 2026, and offers Medicare coverage for weight-loss drugs for the first time in decades, contributed to a substantial increase in Eli Lilly's sales. Over 500,000 older adults have been prescribed GLP-1 drugs for weight loss through this program, with approximately 70% of new Bridge patients starting on a Lilly drug. This initiative is projected to contribute an estimated $4 billion to Eli Lilly's revenue by the end of 2026.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 23.6% change in LLY stock from 7/31/2026 to 10/31/2026 was primarily driven by a 19.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 10312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1147.20 | 1417.54 | 23.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 72,250 | 86,462 | 19.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 35.0% | 31.9% | -8.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 40.6 | 45.8 | 12.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 894 | 892 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 23.6% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 10/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LLY | 23.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.2% | -15.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 13.7% | 84.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 52.2% change in LLY stock from 4/30/2026 to 10/31/2026 was primarily driven by a 39.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 10312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 931.66 | 1417.54 | 52.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 72,250 | 86,462 | 19.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 35.0% | 31.9% | -8.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 33.0 | 45.8 | 39.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 894 | 892 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 52.2% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 10/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LLY | 52.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.4% | -13.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 27.2% | 79.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 65.3% change in LLY stock from 10/31/2025 to 10/31/2026 was primarily driven by a 45.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 10312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 857.45 | 1417.54 | 65.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 59,421 | 86,462 | 45.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 31.0% | 31.9% | 2.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 41.8 | 45.8 | 9.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 897 | 892 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 65.3% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 10/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LLY | 65.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.7% | 7.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | 29.8% | 75.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 161.2% change in LLY stock from 10/31/2023 to 10/31/2026 was primarily driven by a 192.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 10312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 542.63 | 1417.54 | 161.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 29,516 | 86,462 | 192.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.0% | 31.9% | 44.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 75.1 | 45.8 | -39.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 900 | 892 | 0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 161.2% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 10/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LLY | 161.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.9% | 25.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 55.5% | 63.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LLY Return | 66% | 34% | 61% | 33% | 40% | 33% | 789% |
| Peers Return | 23% | 18% | -7% | -0% | 24% | 37% | 128% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LLY Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 58% | 43% | 45% | 58% | 66% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LLY Max Drawdown | -19% | -15% | -15% | -24% | -33% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -17% | -24% | -20% | -20% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: JNJ, MRK, PFE, ABBV, AMGN. See LLY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/30/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 164 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -17.8% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.7% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -13.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -15.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 10 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -17.7% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.5% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 76 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Eli Lilly's stock fell -17.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.2% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | LLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -46.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1216 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Eli Lilly's stock fell -17.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Eli Lilly (LLY)
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) is a global pharmaceutical firm primarily focused on the discovery, development, and marketing of human medicines. Established in 1876, the company operates worldwide, committing its resources to addressing significant health challenges and bringing innovative therapeutic solutions to patients across various disease areas.
The company's extensive product portfolio covers several major therapeutic categories. A cornerstone of its business is diabetes care, offering a wide range of insulins like Humalog and Humulin, alongside advanced treatments for type 2 diabetes such as Jardiance and Trulicity. Eli Lilly also boasts a robust oncology pipeline with medications like Verzenio for breast cancer, Cyramza for various solid tumors, and Retevmo for specific thyroid and lung cancers. Additionally, the company provides treatments for autoimmune diseases (e.g., Olumiant, Taltz), neurological and mental health disorders (e.g., Cymbalta, Zyprexa, Emgality), and other conditions including osteoporosis and erectile dysfunction.
Eli Lilly's primary market consists of healthcare providers and, ultimately, patients around the globe who are battling a diverse array of serious and chronic conditions. By specializing in high-impact areas like diabetes, oncology, immunology, and neuroscience, the company aims to serve a broad patient population, providing essential medicines that improve health outcomes and quality of life across different demographics and regions worldwide.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Eli Lilly is like **Pfizer** for a wide range of human diseases, with a strong focus on diabetes, cancer, and autoimmune conditions.
Think of it as a **Merck** that's a leading developer of drugs for diabetes, oncology, and neuroscience.
It's the **Johnson & Johnson** of pure prescription drugs, with a broad portfolio from insulins to advanced cancer treatments.
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- Insulin Products (e.g., Basaglar, Humalog, Humulin): A comprehensive portfolio of insulin therapies used for diabetes management.
- Jardiance: A medication for type 2 diabetes, also recognized for its cardiovascular and renal benefits.
- Trulicity: An injectable GLP-1 receptor agonist widely used for type 2 diabetes.
- Alimta: A chemotherapy agent primarily for certain lung cancers and malignant pleural mesothelioma.
- Cyramza: A targeted therapy for various advanced solid tumors, including gastric, lung, and colorectal cancers.
- Verzenio: A CDK4/6 inhibitor for the treatment of HR+, HER2- metastatic and early breast cancer.
- Olumiant: An oral JAK inhibitor prescribed for rheumatoid arthritis and other inflammatory conditions.
- Taltz: An IL-17A inhibitor used for a range of psoriatic and spondyloarthritic conditions.
- Cymbalta: A medication used for depressive disorder, anxiety, and various chronic pain conditions.
- Emgality: A preventive treatment specifically for migraine and episodic cluster headache.
- Zyprexa: An antipsychotic medication for the treatment of schizophrenia and bipolar I disorder.
- Cialis: A widely recognized medication for treating erectile dysfunction and benign prostatic hyperplasia.
- Forteo: A bone-forming agent prescribed for severe osteoporosis to reduce fracture risk.
- Retevmo: A targeted therapy for specific types of metastatic non-small cell lung cancer and thyroid cancers.
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Major Customers of Eli Lilly (LLY)
Eli Lilly and Company primarily sells its pharmaceutical products to other companies within the healthcare supply chain rather than directly to individual consumers. Its major customers are large pharmaceutical wholesalers and distributors, which then supply pharmacies, hospitals, and other healthcare providers. The major customer companies are:- McKesson Corporation (MCK)
- AmerisourceBergen Corporation (ABC)
- Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH)
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- Incyte Corporation (INCY)
- Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
- AbCellera Biologics Inc. (ABCL)
- Junshi Biosciences (1877.HK)
- Regor Therapeutics Group
- Lycia Therapeutics, Inc.
- Kumquat Biosciences Inc.
- Entos Pharmaceuticals Inc.
- Foghorn Therapeutics Inc. (FHTX)
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David A. Ricks, Chair and Chief Executive Officer
David A. Ricks joined Eli Lilly and Company in 1996 as a business development associate, working on mergers and acquisitions. Over his career at Lilly, he has held various leadership roles including general manager of Lilly Canada, president and general manager of Lilly China, president of Lilly USA, and president of Lilly Bio-Medicines. He was appointed CEO in January 2017 and became Chairman of the board in June 2017. Before joining Eli Lilly, Mr. Ricks worked as an account representative at IBM.
Lucas Montarce, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Lucas Montarce was appointed Eli Lilly's Chief Financial Officer in September 2024. He joined the company in 2001 and has since held a range of finance leadership roles. His previous positions include serving as CFO of Lilly Research Laboratories, Lilly International, and Elanco Health. Prior to his appointment as CFO, Mr. Montarce was the president and general manager for Lilly's Spain, Portugal, and Greece hub.
Patrik Jonsson, Executive Vice President and President, Lilly International
Patrik Jonsson joined Eli Lilly in 1990 as a sales representative in Sweden. Throughout his career, he has held numerous positions in sales, marketing, and general management internationally, including managing director of Sweden and Scandinavia, president and general manager of Eli Lilly Italia, and president and general manager of Lilly Japan. Most recently, he served as executive vice president and president of Lilly Cardiometabolic Health and president of Lilly USA, before transitioning to his current role as Executive Vice President and President of Lilly International in May 2025.
Ilya Yuffa, Executive Vice President and President, Lilly USA and Global Customer Capabilities
Ilya Yuffa began his career at Eli Lilly in 1996 as a financial analyst. He has held various positions in finance, business development, sales, and general management, including managing director of Lilly Israel and president and general manager of Lilly's Italy Hub. Previously, he served as executive vice president and president of Lilly International before assuming his current role as Executive Vice President and President of Lilly USA and Global Customer Capabilities in May 2025.
Daniel M. Skovronsky, M.D., Ph.D., Chief Scientific and Product Officer, and President, Lilly Research Laboratories
Daniel M. Skovronsky assumed an expanded role in November 2025 as Chief Scientific and Product Officer, and President of Lilly Research Laboratories. In this position, he oversees research and development, as well as global launches and product strategy for Cardiometabolic Health, Immunology, and Neuroscience. He reports directly to Eli Lilly's Chair and CEO, David A. Ricks.
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Eli Lilly and Company, trading as LLY, faces several key risks to its business, primarily driven by the dynamics of its highly successful GLP-1 drug franchise and the inherent challenges within the pharmaceutical industry.
- Dependence on GLP-1 Franchise and Intense Competition/Price War: Eli Lilly's recent growth has been overwhelmingly reliant on its GLP-1 products, Mounjaro and Zepbound, which creates a strategic vulnerability. The company operates in a fiercely competitive pharmaceutical sector, facing significant challenges from established global players like Novo Nordisk, especially in the diabetes and obesity markets. There are immediate concerns about a "price war" for GLP-1 drugs, which could lead to margin erosion as competitors announce price cuts. Any adverse event or increased competition in this highly concentrated segment could significantly impact the company's valuation and revenue.
- Manufacturing and Supply Chain Challenges: The immense and unprecedented demand for Eli Lilly's GLP-1 products, Mounjaro and Zepbound, presents a significant manufacturing and supply chain challenge. Even with ongoing manufacturing expansions, there is execution risk in keeping up with this demand. Indicators such as a surging average inventory processing period and plummeting inventory turnover suggest potential issues in managing supply to meet this high demand.
- Patent Expirations and Loss of Exclusivity for Key Drugs: While newer blockbuster GLP-1 drugs like Zepbound and Mounjaro have patent protection extending to 2036 and 2041, respectively, including follow-on patents, other significant revenue drivers face upcoming expirations. For instance, Trulicity, a major diabetes drug and a key revenue source, is set to lose its U.S. patent exclusivity in 2027. Historically, Eli Lilly has faced challenges from patent expirations for several products, which can lead to a significant decline in revenues as generic alternatives enter the market.
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Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) - Addressable Market Sizes for Main Products:
- Diabetes Products (Basaglar, Humalog, Jardiance, Trajenta, Trulicity):
- Global Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Therapeutic Market: USD 19,514.5 million in 2024.
- Global SGLT2 Inhibitors Market (for Type 2 Diabetes and comorbidities like heart failure and chronic kidney disease): USD 19.2 billion in 2024.
- U.S. SGLT2 Inhibitors Market: USD 7.3 billion in 2024.
- Oncology Products (Alimta, Cyramza, Erbitux, Retevmo, Tyvyt, Verzenio):
- Global Breast Cancer Therapeutics Market: USD 31.5 billion in 2024.
- U.S. Breast Cancer Therapeutics Market: USD 11.9 billion in 2024.
- Global Stomach Cancer Treatment Market (Gastric Cancer): USD 5.40 billion in 2024.
- U.S. Gastric Cancer Market: USD 893.1 million in 2024.
- Global Thyroid Cancer Market (across 7 major markets including US, EU4, UK, and Japan): USD 2,696.0 million in 2024.
- North America Differentiated Thyroid Cancer Treatment Market: Over 40% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 201.00 million in 2024.
- Immunology Products (Olumiant, Taltz):
- Addressable markets for rheumatoid arthritis, plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and non-radiographic axial spondylarthritis could not be specifically sized with the available information. Null.
- Neuroscience Products (Cymbalta, Emgality, Zyprexa):
- Global Schizophrenia Drugs Market: USD 8.36 billion in 2024.
- U.S. Schizophrenia Market: Approximately USD 6 billion in 2024.
- COVID-19 Therapeutics (Bamlanivimab and etesevimab, Bebtelovimab):
- Addressable market for COVID-19 therapeutics could not be specifically sized with recent and relevant data. Null.
- Men's Health (Cialis):
- Global Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia (BPH) Treatment Market: USD 12.49 billion in 2024.
- North America Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia (BPH) Treatment Market: Approximately 35% of the global market in 2024.
- Addressable market for erectile dysfunction could not be specifically sized with the available information. Null.
- Bone Health (Forteo):
- Global Osteoporosis Treatment Market: USD 15.73 billion in 2024.
- U.S. Osteoporosis Drugs Market: USD 10.1 billion in 2024.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Eli Lilly (LLY)
- Continued Strong Performance of Tirzepatide Franchise (Mounjaro and Zepbound): Eli Lilly's current GLP-1 medications, Mounjaro (for type 2 diabetes) and Zepbound (for obesity), are expected to remain significant revenue drivers over the next 2-3 years. These drugs collectively generated substantial revenue in 2025 and continue to exhibit robust demand and sales growth, with Mounjaro's international expansion also contributing.
- Launch and Rapid Uptake of New Oral GLP-1 Therapies (e.g., Orforglipron): The anticipated approval and launch of new oral GLP-1 medications, particularly orforglipron, are projected to be a major catalyst for future revenue growth. Orforglipron is in late-stage clinical trials, with potential U.S. approval expected as early as Q2 2026. Its convenience as a pill and demonstrated superior efficacy compared to some competitors are expected to drive rapid adoption and significant sales. Another pipeline candidate, retatrutide, also holds considerable potential in the injectable weight-loss drug market.
- Expanded Manufacturing Capacity to Meet Surging Demand: Eli Lilly is making substantial investments in expanding its global manufacturing capabilities to address the high demand for its GLP-1 drugs and to prepare for new product launches. These multi-billion dollar investments in new and existing facilities are critical to ensuring adequate supply and supporting sustained revenue growth.
- Broader Market Access and Direct-to-Consumer Initiatives: Efforts to increase patient access through various channels are expected to fuel sales volume. This includes the expansion of the LillyDirect platform, direct-to-employer programs like Employer Connect, and anticipated broader coverage for obesity medicines through Medicare and Medicaid. These initiatives aim to reduce barriers to access and capture a larger share of the growing metabolic health market.
- Growth in Other Key Products and Pipeline Progression: Beyond the GLP-1 franchise, Eli Lilly's oncology portfolio, including products like Verzenio and Jaypirca, continues to contribute to revenue growth. The company also has a robust pipeline with numerous programs in late-stage development across various therapeutic areas, indicating additional potential future revenue streams.
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Share Repurchases
- Eli Lilly approved a new $15 billion share repurchase program in December 2024, expected to be executed over the next three years.
- This program followed the completion of a $5 billion share repurchase program in the fourth quarter of 2024.
- The company's annual share buybacks were $4.108 billion in 2025, $2.5 billion in 2024, and $750 million in 2023.
Share Issuance
- The number of outstanding shares showed a slight decline of 0.28% in 2025 to 895,018,757, and a minor increase of 0.09% in 2024 to 0.904 billion, indicating no significant share issuance.
Outbound Investments
- Eli Lilly has actively pursued acquisitions, including Orna for $2.4 billion (February 2026), Ventyx Biosciences for $1.2 billion (January 2026), and SiteOne Therapeutics for $1 billion (May 2025).
- In 2023, major acquisitions included Point Biopharma for $1.4 billion for radiopharmaceutical development, and DICE Therapeutics for $2.4 billion to expand its immunology portfolio.
- The company plans to invest up to $250 million over eight years in an expanded collaboration with Purdue University to accelerate pharmaceutical innovation, focusing on AI-powered drug discovery and supply chain resilience.
Capital Expenditures
- Eli Lilly's capital expenditures increased significantly, reaching $7.841 billion in 2025, up from $5.058 billion in 2024 and $3.448 billion in 2023.
- The company has committed over $55 billion globally to capital expansion since 2020, with over $50 billion specifically in the U.S., primarily to expand manufacturing capacity for GLP-1 therapies and other pipeline medicines.
- Recent and planned major manufacturing investments include a new $9 billion commitment at its Lebanon, Indiana, site, a $3.5 billion facility in Lehigh Valley, Pennsylvania, and a $3 billion investment over ten years to expand supply chain capacity in China.
Peer Outperformance in Pharmaceuticals
LLY has outperformed 95% of its 60 Pharmaceuticals peers over 5Y. Pharmaceuticals ranks 6th of 10 industries in Health Care by median 5Y return. The sector’s gains have largely come from elsewhere.
Share of Pharmaceuticals constituents that LLY has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
83%
of 70 industry peers · 65.3% return
3Y
82%
of 66 industry peers · 161.0% return
5Y
95%
of 60 industry peers · 482.3% return
No Pharmaceuticals peer with a comparable growth profile has beaten LLY by more than 20pp over 5Y.
Median price return by industry across the Health Care sector, ranked by 5Y. Pharmaceuticals is LLY's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care Distributors | 6 | 10.9% | 56.8% | 98.5% | CAH 480% · MCK 390% · COR 186% |
| Health Care Services | 20 | 33.8% | 44.0% | 12.4% | HIMS 255% · RDNT 136% · DGX 89% |
| Managed Health Care | 8 | 34.4% | -1.2% | -3.6% | OSCR 76% · HQY 55% · ELV 4% |
| Health Care Facilities | 25 | 12.1% | 18.2% | -5.4% | THC 281% · NHC 236% · EHC 182% |
| Health Care Equipment | 50 | 0.7% | 10.2% | -17.8% | GKOS 420% · UFPT 360% · PLSE 148% |
| Pharmaceuticals ← | 61 | -15.0% | 9.2% | -34.9% | LQDA 1102% · KNSA 788% · LLY 482% |
| Health Care Supplies | 11 | 15.5% | 2.3% | -39.9% | LNTH 329% · HAE 74% · MMSI 28% |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services | 107 | -8.1% | -1.9% | -66.4% | NTRA 262% · AXGN 225% · MEDP 188% |
| Biotechnology | 363 | -25.0% | -26.2% | -81.1% | DNTH 1187% · ELVN 1129% · TRVI 1054% |
| Health Care Technology | 21 | -23.8% | -48.9% | -82.4% | VEEV -1% · DOCS -53% |
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are limited to companies above $2B market cap.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 284.37 |
| Mkt Cap | 445.5 |
| Rev LTM | 65,478 |
| Op Inc LTM | 19,434 |
| FCF LTM | 13,876 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 12,028 |
| CFO LTM | 19,737 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 17,988 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 23.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 24.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 28.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 25.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 21.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 445.5 |
| P/S | 6.6 |
| P/Op Inc | 24.9 |
| P/EBIT | 31.9 |
| P/E | 43.4 |
| P/CFO | 22.7 |
| Total Yield | 3.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 11.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 20.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 39.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 54.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 98.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 10.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 19.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 32.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 44.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 7.0% |
Comparison Analyses
FDA Approved Drugs Data
Expand for More| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| BLA761408 | ONSWIK | insulin efsitora alfa-gobe | injectable | 9232026 | 23.2% | 23.2% | 23.2% | 23.2% | 23.2% |
| NDA220934 | FOUNDAYO | orforglipron calcium | tablet | 4012026 | 25.1% | 21.6% | 49.0% | 49.0% | 49.0% |
| NDA218881 | INLURIYO | imlunestrant tosylate | tablet | 9252025 | 50.9% | 25.9% | 66.7% | 99.6% | 99.6% |
| BLA761306 | EBGLYSS | lebrikizumab-lbkz | injectable | 9132024 | -14.4% | -11.6% | -17.6% | 22.5% | 55.6% |
| BLA761248 | KISUNLA | donanemab-azbt | injectable | 7022024 | -2.3% | -14.6% | -13.5% | 35.8% | 58.7% |
| NDA218160 | RETEVMO | selpercatinib | capsule | 4102024 | 23.5% | 21.1% | -4.8% | 25.0% | 89.2% |
| NDA217806 | ZEPBOUND | tirzepatide | solution | 11082023 | 17.4% | 25.6% | 29.7% | 51.5% | 133.7% |
| BLA761279 | OMVOH | mirikizumab-mrkz | injectable | 10262023 | 10.7% | 28.1% | 58.2% | 47.4% | 154.7% |
| NDA215866 | MOUNJARO | tirzepatide | solution | 5132022 | 6.0% | 21.2% | 50.7% | 165.2% | 403.2% |
| BLA761215 | REZVOGLAR | insulin glargine-aglr | injectable | 12172021 | 8.0% | 9.6% | 36.4% | 119.0% | 452.9% |
| ... | |||||||||
| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| BLA761408 | ONSWIK | insulin efsitora alfa-gobe | injectable | 9232026 | 23.2% | 23.2% | 23.2% | 23.2% | 23.2% |
| NDA220934 | FOUNDAYO | orforglipron calcium | tablet | 4012026 | 25.1% | 21.6% | 49.0% | 49.0% | 49.0% |
| NDA218881 | INLURIYO | imlunestrant tosylate | tablet | 9252025 | 50.9% | 25.9% | 66.7% | 99.6% | 99.6% |
| BLA761306 | EBGLYSS | lebrikizumab-lbkz | injectable | 9132024 | -14.4% | -11.6% | -17.6% | 22.5% | 55.6% |
| BLA761248 | KISUNLA | donanemab-azbt | injectable | 7022024 | -2.3% | -14.6% | -13.5% | 35.8% | 58.7% |
| NDA218160 | RETEVMO | selpercatinib | capsule | 4102024 | 23.5% | 21.1% | -4.8% | 25.0% | 89.2% |
| NDA217806 | ZEPBOUND | tirzepatide | solution | 11082023 | 17.4% | 25.6% | 29.7% | 51.5% | 133.7% |
| BLA761279 | OMVOH | mirikizumab-mrkz | injectable | 10262023 | 10.7% | 28.1% | 58.2% | 47.4% | 154.7% |
| NDA215866 | MOUNJARO | tirzepatide | solution | 5132022 | 6.0% | 21.2% | 50.7% | 165.2% | 403.2% |
| BLA761215 | REZVOGLAR | insulin glargine-aglr | injectable | 12172021 | 8.0% | 9.6% | 36.4% | 119.0% | 452.9% |
| BLA761109 | LYUMJEV | insulin lispro-aabc | injectable | 6152020 | 5.8% | 12.7% | 60.9% | 113.9% | 971.3% |
| NDA213246 | RETEVMO | selpercatinib | capsule | 5082020 | 0.1% | -6.1% | 29.7% | 100.1% | 892.2% |
| NDA211280 | REYVOW | lasmiditan succinate | tablet | 10112019 | 28.1% | 36.0% | 47.8% | 124.1% | 1,321.1% |
| BLA761063 | EMGALITY | galcanezumab-gnlm | injectable | 9272018 | 6.3% | 22.1% | 7.6% | 46.9% | 1,374.8% |
| NDA207924 | OLUMIANT | baricitinib | tablet | 5312018 | 24.7% | 39.0% | 39.3% | 87.7% | 1,760.5% |
| NDA208855 | VERZENIO | abemaciclib | tablet | 2262018 | 3.9% | 32.7% | 59.1% | 74.2% | 1,886.9% |
| NDA208716 | VERZENIO | abemaciclib | tablet | 9282017 | 0.7% | -7.7% | 29.6% | 38.7% | 1,800.1% |
| BLA761038 | LARTRUVO | olaratumab | injectable | 10192016 | -0.7% | 4.3% | 12.8% | 50.1% | 2,010.1% |
| BLA125521 | TALTZ | ixekizumab | injectable | 3222016 | 1.6% | 12.5% | 20.4% | 12.2% | 2,235.1% |
| BLA205692 | BASAGLAR | insulin glargine | solution | 12162015 | -15.4% | -13.4% | -15.1% | 5.7% | 1,859.7% |
| BLA125547 | PORTRAZZA | necitumumab | injectable | 11242015 | -11.8% | -9.4% | -16.8% | 5.1% | 1,916.1% |
| BLA205747 | HUMALOG KWIKPEN | insulin lispro recombinant | solution | 5262015 | 5.9% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 11.0% | 2,203.9% |
| BLA125469 | TRULICITY | dulaglutide | injectable | 9182014 | 9.6% | 13.1% | 36.6% | 24.8% | 2,526.2% |
| BLA125477 | CYRAMZA | ramucirumab | injectable | 4212014 | 5.4% | 5.4% | 22.3% | 34.1% | 2,820.7% |
| NDA022504 | AXIRON | testosterone | solution, metered | 11232010 | 2.4% | 16.3% | 10.4% | 53.7% | 5,933.6% |
| NDA022332 | ADCIRCA | tadalafil | tablet | 5222009 | -1.2% | 9.6% | 2.1% | 25.0% | 6,409.3% |
Clinical Pipeline
| Drug Candidate | Indication | Phase 3 Trials | Est. Primary Completion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retatrutide (LY3437943) | Obesity, overweight, and type 2 diabetes | 9 | Aug 2026 |
| Lebrikizumab (LY3650150) | Atopic dermatitis and respiratory diseases | 5 | Sep 2026 |
| Baricitinib (LY3009104) | Autoimmune and inflammatory diseases | 6 | Oct 2026 |
| Orforglipron (LY3502970) | Obesity, overweight, and type 2 diabetes | 15 | Nov 2026 |
| Tirzepatide (LY3298176) | Obesity, overweight, and type 1 diabetes | 5 | Nov 2026 |
| Imlunestrant (LY3484356) | Estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer | 2 | Oct 2027 |
| Donanemab (LY3002813) | Alzheimer's disease | 6 | Nov 2027 |
| Olomorasib (LY3537982) | KRAS G12C-mutant non-small cell lung cancer | 2 | Nov 2027 |
| Mirikizumab (LY3074828) | Ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease | 6 | Dec 2027 |
| Dulaglutide (LY2189265) | Type 2 diabetes in pediatric patients | 1 | Dec 2027 |
| ... |
Active Phase 3 studies led by the company. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov · Updated 8/28/2026
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery, development, manufacturing, marketing, and sales of pharmaceutical products worldwide | 65,179 | 45,043 | 34,124 | 28,541 | 28,318 |
| Total | 65,179 | 45,043 | 34,124 | 28,541 | 28,318 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery, development, manufacturing, marketing, and sales of pharmaceutical products worldwide | 20,640 | 10,590 | 5,240 | 6,245 |
| Total | 20,640 | 10,590 | 5,240 | 6,245 |
| $ Mil | 2024 |
|---|---|
| Discovery, development, manufacturing, marketing, and sales of pharmaceutical products worldwide | 78,715 |
| Total | 78,715 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $1,417.54 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1,264.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/01/1972 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $1,197.14 | $1,089.28 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 18.4% | 30.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 32.1% | 35.6% |
| Downside Capture | -28.14 | -15.32 |
| Upside Capture | 41.42 | 42.87 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | -2.2% | 9.6% |
LLY Betas & Captures as of 10/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -1.05 | -0.35 | -0.46 | -0.36 | 0.21 | 0.59 |
| Up Beta | -2.78 | -0.28 | -0.59 | -0.61 | 0.82 | 0.51 |
| Down Beta | -1.66 | -1.47 | -0.85 | -0.32 | 0.06 | 0.59 |
| Up Capture | 112% | 72% | 20% | 16% | 28% | 47% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 27 | 35 | 67 | 128 | 408 |
| Down Capture | -223% | -105% | -124% | -123% | -45% | 76% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 29 | 59 | 123 | 344 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LLY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLY | 75.7% | 35.6% | 1.63 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 30.2% | 16.4% | 1.41 | 74.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 10.9% | 12.8% | 0.52 | 6.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | -2.0% | 28.6% | -0.08 | 9.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.2% | 20.6% | 1.79 | -16.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 10.2% | 13.7% | 0.45 | 27.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -30.0% | 43.5% | -0.70 | 5.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LLY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLY | 43.5% | 32.9% | 1.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 8.7% | 15.3% | 0.37 | 61.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.2% | 17.1% | 0.53 | 28.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.2% | 19.0% | 0.68 | 5.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.2% | 19.5% | 0.35 | -1.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.9% | 18.9% | -0.06 | 25.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.9% | 51.6% | 0.28 | 7.8% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LLY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLY | 35.6% | 30.7% | 1.05 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 12.0% | 16.8% | 0.59 | 61.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 37.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.4% | 16.5% | 0.56 | 4.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 5.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 30.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.8% | 66.2% | 1.02 | 6.8% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/1/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2026 | 6.6% | ||
| 8/5/2026 | 4.9% | 8.9% | 4.1% |
| 4/30/2026 | 9.8% | 16.0% | 30.0% |
| 2/4/2026 | 10.3% | 2.1% | -1.8% |
| 10/30/2025 | 3.8% | 13.8% | 30.2% |
| 8/7/2025 | -14.1% | -11.5% | -2.4% |
| 5/1/2025 | -11.7% | -13.6% | -17.8% |
| 2/6/2025 | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 16 | 17 |
| # Negative | 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 4.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% |
| Median Negative | -2.7% | -3.5% | -2.4% |
| Max Positive | 14.9% | 20.7% | 30.2% |
| Max Negative | -14.1% | -13.6% | -17.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2026 | 6.6% | ||
| 8/5/2026 | 4.9% | 8.9% | 4.1% |
| 4/30/2026 | 9.8% | 16.0% | 30.0% |
| 2/4/2026 | 10.3% | 2.1% | -1.8% |
| 10/30/2025 | 3.8% | 13.8% | 30.2% |
| 8/7/2025 | -14.1% | -11.5% | -2.4% |
| 5/1/2025 | -11.7% | -13.6% | -17.8% |
| 2/6/2025 | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.4% |
| 10/30/2024 | -6.3% | -10.8% | -12.6% |
| 8/8/2024 | 9.5% | 20.7% | 17.1% |
| 4/30/2024 | 6.0% | 4.0% | 10.3% |
| 2/6/2024 | -0.2% | 4.4% | 10.6% |
| 11/2/2023 | 4.7% | 11.7% | 5.5% |
| 8/8/2023 | 14.9% | 18.7% | 23.6% |
| 4/27/2023 | 3.7% | 14.6% | 13.9% |
| 2/2/2023 | -3.5% | -0.5% | -6.7% |
| 11/1/2022 | -2.6% | 0.8% | 2.8% |
| 8/4/2022 | -2.6% | -2.9% | -1.2% |
| 4/28/2022 | 4.3% | 3.4% | 10.3% |
| 2/3/2022 | -2.4% | -3.0% | 5.2% |
| 12/15/2021 | 10.4% | 6.2% | 0.1% |
| 10/26/2021 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 7.2% |
| 8/3/2021 | 3.8% | 8.3% | 5.1% |
| 4/27/2021 | -2.7% | -0.7% | 6.9% |
| 1/29/2021 | -1.0% | -4.0% | -1.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 16 | 17 |
| # Negative | 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 4.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% |
| Median Negative | -2.7% | -3.5% | -2.4% |
| Max Positive | 14.9% | 20.7% | 30.2% |
| Max Negative | -14.1% | -13.6% | -17.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/27/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/17/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/28/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/31/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/01/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/19/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/30/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Performance Margin | Reported | 52.0% | 52.25% | 52.5% | 2.5% | Raised | Guidance: 49.75% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 91.00 Bil | 91.50 Bil | 92.00 Bil | 6.4% | Raised | Guidance: 86.00 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Tax Rate | Reported | 19.0% | 19.5% | 20.0% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 18.5% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Earnings per Share | Reported | 35 | 35.5 | 36 | -1.4% | Lowered | Guidance: 36 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Diluted Shares Outstanding | Reported | 894.00 Mil | ||||||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Performance Margin | Reported | 49.0% | 49.75% | 50.5% | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 47.75% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 85.00 Bil | 86.00 Bil | 87.00 Bil | 3.0% | Raised | Guidance: 83.50 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Tax Rate | Reported | 18.0% | 18.5% | 19.0% | ||||
| 2026 Earnings per Share | Reported | 35.5 | 36 | 36.5 | -0.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 36.25 for 2026 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Performance Margin | Reported | 47.0% | 47.75% | 48.5% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 46.75% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 82.00 Bil | 83.50 Bil | 85.00 Bil | 2.5% | Raised | Guidance: 81.50 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 EPS | Reported | 35.5 | 36.25 | 37 | 5.8% | Raised | Guidance: 34.25 for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Performance Margin | Reported | 46.0% | 46.75% | 47.5% | 1.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 45.5% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 80.00 Bil | 81.50 Bil | 83.00 Bil | 28.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 63.25 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Tax Rate | Reported | 18.0% | 18.5% | 19.0% | ||||
| 2026 Earnings per Share | Reported | 33.5 | 34.25 | 35 | 46.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 23.35 for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 10/20/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonsson, Patrik | EVP & President, LLY Int'l | Direct | Sell | 8182026 | 1175.10 | 6,500 | 7,638,150 | 63,627,693 | Form |
| 2 | Hakim, Anat | EVP, GC & Secretary | spouse | Sell | 8102026 | 1190.00 | 5,000 | 5,950,000 | 14,131,250 | Form |
| 3 | Yuffa, Ilya | EVP&Pres, LLY USA&Global Capab | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 1150.77 | 2,500 | 2,876,925 | 34,297,677 | Form |
| 4 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 995.36 | 15,828 | 15,754,537 | 91,454,696,564 | Form | |
| 5 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 1085.01 | 1,390 | 1,508,165 | 100,026,215,790 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonsson, Patrik | EVP & President, LLY Int'l | Direct | Sell | 8182026 | 1175.10 | 6,500 | 7,638,150 | 63,627,693 | Form |
| 2 | Hakim, Anat | EVP, GC & Secretary | spouse | Sell | 8102026 | 1190.00 | 5,000 | 5,950,000 | 14,131,250 | Form |
| 3 | Yuffa, Ilya | EVP&Pres, LLY USA&Global Capab | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 1150.77 | 2,500 | 2,876,925 | 34,297,677 | Form |
| 4 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 995.36 | 15,828 | 15,754,537 | 91,454,696,564 | Form | |
| 5 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 1085.01 | 1,390 | 1,508,165 | 100,026,215,790 | Form | |
| 6 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 12302025 | 1085.04 | 3,593 | 3,898,531 | 100,029,936,528 | Form | |
| 7 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 12292025 | 1085.17 | 2,629 | 2,852,920 | 100,046,557,846 | Form | |
| 8 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 12292025 | 1085.04 | 240 | 260,409 | 100,036,964,206 | Form | |
| 9 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11262025 | 1109.30 | 15,632 | 17,340,625 | 102,274,384,375 | Form | |
| 10 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11262025 | 1095.35 | 147,061 | 161,082,640 | 101,004,689,381 | Form | |
| 11 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 1068.52 | 142,307 | 152,058,091 | 98,688,295,322 | Form | |
| 12 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 1058.66 | 105,326 | 111,504,098 | 97,927,858,168 | Form | |
| 13 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11212025 | 1051.66 | 37,148 | 39,067,117 | 97,391,524,342 | Form | |
| 14 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11202025 | 1051.17 | 167,526 | 176,098,702 | 97,385,287,986 | Form | |
| 15 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 1034.78 | 60,213 | 62,306,969 | 96,039,609,306 | Form | |
| 16 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 1030.68 | 9,886 | 10,189,269 | 95,721,199,939 | Form | |
| 17 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11172025 | 425738.48 | 178,295 | 75,907,041,787 | 39,543,474,018,274 | Form | |
| 18 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11142025 | 1030.26 | 46,606 | 48,016,098 | 95,875,981,145 | Form | |
| 19 | Zakrowski, Donald A | SVP, Finance, & CAO | Direct | Sell | 11132025 | 1010.50 | 1,000 | 1,010,500 | 2,869,475 | Form |
| 20 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11132025 | 1011.18 | 305,000 | 308,411,204 | 94,148,312,193 | Form | |
| 21 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 986.64 | 283,131 | 279,347,680 | 92,163,766,311 | Form | |
| 22 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 972.52 | 16,869 | 16,405,396 | 91,120,123,216 | Form | |
| 23 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11062025 | 951.56 | 40,432 | 38,473,442 | 89,172,496,032 | Form | |
| 24 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11062025 | 933.26 | 179,042 | 167,092,104 | 87,495,042,724 | Form | |
| 25 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11052025 | 910.72 | 526 | 479,038 | 85,545,158,034 | Form | |
| 26 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 888.83 | 300,000 | 266,648,921 | 83,489,535,201 | Form | |
| 27 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 11032025 | 863.35 | 301,342 | 260,165,031 | 81,355,620,762 | Form | |
| 28 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 10142025 | 863.24 | 3,658 | 3,157,722 | 81,604,692,739 | Form | |
| 29 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 10102025 | 852.49 | 10,602 | 9,038,055 | 80,591,439,893 | Form | |
| 30 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 10092025 | 850.27 | 101,420 | 86,234,874 | 80,391,428,051 | Form | |
| 31 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 10082025 | 848.01 | 26,795 | 22,722,401 | 80,263,203,841 | Form | |
| 32 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 10072025 | 850.22 | 161,183 | 137,041,657 | 80,495,634,020 | Form | |
| 33 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 10062025 | 837.93 | 192,404 | 161,220,401 | 79,466,412,630 | Form | |
| 34 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 10032025 | 821.55 | 112,596 | 92,503,361 | 78,071,487,947 | Form | |
| 35 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 10022025 | 821.47 | 215,822 | 177,290,448 | 78,155,906,007 | Form | |
| 36 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 10022025 | 794.15 | 135,193 | 107,363,016 | 75,728,040,835 | Form | |
| 37 | Lilly, Endowment Inc | Direct | Sell | 10012025 | 763.39 | 113,694 | 86,793,274 | 72,898,741,331 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 1, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private Capital Advisors, Inc. | $373.4 Mil | 42.8% | 73 | TRIM -5.0% | 13F |
| Bedel Financial Consulting, Inc. | $301.3 Mil | 34.6% | 293 | Hold | 13F |
| Goelzer Investment Management, Inc. | $497.1 Mil | 24.0% | 297 | Hold | 13F |
| Holistic Financial Partners | $62.3 Mil | 23.1% | 146 | Hold | 13F |
| Cascade Financial Partners, LLC | $217.7 Mil | 22.4% | 266 | Hold | 13F |
| Weatherly Asset Management L. P. | $251.2 Mil | 20.3% | 186 | Hold | 13F |
| Vega Investment Solutions | $84.5 Mil | 20.2% | 175 | TRIM -5.3% | 13F |
| Sapient Capital LLC | $1.3 Bil | 20.0% | 443 | Hold | 13F |
| Amanah Holdings Trust | $92.0 Mil | 10.1% | 20 | Hold | 13F |
| Atle Fund Management AB | $26.8 Mil | 8.7% | 39 | ADD +27.6% | 13F |
| Teewinot Capital Advisers, L.L.C. | $105.4 Mil | 8.4% | 33 | TRIM -19.4% | 13F |
| Matthew 25 Management Corp | $25.3 Mil | 8.4% | 20 | ADD +7.8% | 13F |
| Tri Locum Partners LP | $56.8 Mil | 8.0% | 17 | Hold | 13F |
| Artia Global Partners LP | $35.2 Mil | 7.9% | 48 | TRIM -24.3% | 13F |
| Blackhill Capital Inc | $134.0 Mil | 6.9% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| Davern Capital Partners, LP | $25.1 Mil | 6.9% | 17 | New | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $36.8 Mil | 6.9% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Codex Capital Asset Management L.L.C. | $16.9 Mil | 6.5% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Varenne Capital Partners | $24.0 Mil | 6.0% | 27 | Hold | 13F |
| Unio Capital LLC | $25.7 Mil | 5.5% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $14.6 Mil | 5.0% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. | $69.5 Mil | 4.5% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Raub Brock Capital Management LP | $17.1 Mil | 4.3% | 43 | New | 13F |
| Bender Robert & Associates | $16.1 Mil | 3.9% | 45 | New | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $81.1 Mil | 3.9% | 26 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirova US LLC | $338.9 Mil | 3.8% | 42 | New | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $81.1 Mil | 3.9% | 26 | New | 13F |
| Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. | $69.5 Mil | 4.5% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Spear Holdings RSC Ltd | $34.7 Mil | 3.7% | 17 | New | 13F |
| PBCay One RSC Ltd | $34.7 Mil | 3.7% | 17 | New | 13F |
| Davern Capital Partners, LP | $25.1 Mil | 6.9% | 17 | New | 13F |
| Retail Employees Superannuation Pty Ltd as trustee for Retail Employees Superannuation Trust | $22.4 Mil | 3.3% | 28 | New | 13F |
| Ithaka Group LLC | $18.5 Mil | 3.8% | 38 | New | 13F |
| Raub Brock Capital Management LP | $17.1 Mil | 4.3% | 43 | New | 13F |
| Bender Robert & Associates | $16.1 Mil | 3.9% | 45 | New | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $14.6 Mil | 5.0% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Haverford Financial Services, Inc. | $11.8 Mil | 3.5% | 46 | New | 13F |
| Atle Fund Management AB | $26.8 Mil | 8.7% | 39 | ADD +27.6% | 13F |
| Matthew 25 Management Corp | $25.3 Mil | 8.4% | 20 | ADD +7.8% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O'Neil Global Advisors, Inc. | $43.3 Mil | 14.9% | 45 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Revere Asset Management, Inc | $22.0 Mil | 7.7% | 34 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Artia Global Partners LP | $35.2 Mil | 7.9% | 48 | TRIM -24.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Teewinot Capital Advisers, L.L.C. | $105.4 Mil | 8.4% | 33 | TRIM -19.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Vega Investment Solutions | $84.5 Mil | 20.2% | 175 | TRIM -5.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Private Capital Advisors, Inc. | $373.4 Mil | 42.8% | 73 | TRIM -5.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sapient Capital LLC | $1.3 Bil | 20.0% | 443 | Hold | 13F |
| Goelzer Investment Management, Inc. | $497.1 Mil | 24.0% | 297 | Hold | 13F |
| Private Capital Advisors, Inc. | $373.4 Mil | 42.8% | 73 | TRIM -5.0% | 13F |
| Mirova US LLC | $338.9 Mil | 3.8% | 42 | New | 13F |
| Bedel Financial Consulting, Inc. | $301.3 Mil | 34.6% | 293 | Hold | 13F |
| Weatherly Asset Management L. P. | $251.2 Mil | 20.3% | 186 | Hold | 13F |
| Cascade Financial Partners, LLC | $217.7 Mil | 22.4% | 266 | Hold | 13F |
| Blackhill Capital Inc | $134.0 Mil | 6.9% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| Teewinot Capital Advisers, L.L.C. | $105.4 Mil | 8.4% | 33 | TRIM -19.4% | 13F |
| Amanah Holdings Trust | $92.0 Mil | 10.1% | 20 | Hold | 13F |
| Vega Investment Solutions | $84.5 Mil | 20.2% | 175 | TRIM -5.3% | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $81.1 Mil | 3.9% | 26 | New | 13F |
| Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. | $69.5 Mil | 4.5% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Holistic Financial Partners | $62.3 Mil | 23.1% | 146 | Hold | 13F |
| Tri Locum Partners LP | $56.8 Mil | 8.0% | 17 | Hold | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $36.8 Mil | 6.9% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Artia Global Partners LP | $35.2 Mil | 7.9% | 48 | TRIM -24.3% | 13F |
| Spear Holdings RSC Ltd | $34.7 Mil | 3.7% | 17 | New | 13F |
| PBCay One RSC Ltd | $34.7 Mil | 3.7% | 17 | New | 13F |
| Atle Fund Management AB | $26.8 Mil | 8.7% | 39 | ADD +27.6% | 13F |
| Unio Capital LLC | $25.7 Mil | 5.5% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Matthew 25 Management Corp | $25.3 Mil | 8.4% | 20 | ADD +7.8% | 13F |
| Davern Capital Partners, LP | $25.1 Mil | 6.9% | 17 | New | 13F |
| Varenne Capital Partners | $24.0 Mil | 6.0% | 27 | Hold | 13F |
| Retail Employees Superannuation Pty Ltd as trustee for Retail Employees Superannuation Trust | $22.4 Mil | 3.3% | 28 | New | 13F |
LLY Trade Sentinel
Stock Conviction
High Conviction
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is high as Eli Lilly is capitalizing on a historic market expansion with clinically superior products. The company is converting massive, supply-constrained demand into accelerating international market share, now at 58%. With penetration at just 1 out of 10 in the U.S., a deep pipeline, and aggressive manufacturing expansion, the growth runway is exceptionally long.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Patent-Protected Franchise(Volume of prescriptions for key products) x (Net Realized Price per prescription) Operating leverage from scaling sales of high-margin, patent-protected drugs over a largely fixed R&D and SG&A cost base.
Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the
Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes. The company is executing a massive capacity expansion to meet demand in a U.S. market that is growing 32% and has low penetration.
Mechanism:
Capturing share in the rapidly expanding global incretin market, which grew 32% in the U.S. and 53% internationally. Operating leverage is immense, with 45.5% revenue growth driving a 6.9 percentage point expansion in operating margin as the company scales its high-margin (83.6% gross) products.
Supporting Evidence:
- The U.S. incretin market grew 32% in Q3 2026 vs. the prior year.
- International incretin market share reached approximately 58% in Q3 2026, a gain of 4 percentage points from Q2.
- Management states U.S. penetration is only '1 out of 10 patients'.
- Capital expenditure is 21.9% of revenue, funding a major manufacturing expansion.
- Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised by 6.4% in October.
PRIMARY RISK
The incretin franchise (Mounjaro, Zepbound, Foundayo) now accounts for 66% of total revenue as of Q3 2026, up from 56% in 2025. This hyper-concentration makes earnings acutely vulnerable to any single adverse event, such as new safety signals, superior competitor data, or targeted government pricing actions.
Mechanism:
A significant delay in manufacturing expansion leading to a volume-driven guidance cut.
Supporting Evidence:
- Incretin medicines accounted for 66% of total revenue for the nine months ended September 30, 2026.
- Three key products are already subject to government-set prices under the Inflation Reduction Act.
- Management expects net realized price to be a headwind in 2027.
- A major pharmacy benefit manager stopped covering Zepbound on some plans in July 2025.
Key KPI Watchlist
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Incretin Market Total Prescription (TRx) Growth | 32% year-over-year growth in Q3 2026 - Stable | The U.S. incretin market continues to expand at a rapid and stable pace, with the latest quarter's growth indicating sustained strong demand, which management commentary from the October earnings call attributes to the expansion of oral GLP-1s and the Medicare GLP-1 bridge program. |
| International Incretin Market Share | Approximately 58% in Q3 2026 - Accelerating | Lilly is rapidly consolidating its leadership position in international markets. The pace of market share gains accelerated in the most recent quarter, driven by strong performance of Mounjaro. |
| U.S. Incretin Market Total Prescriptions Growth | 32% (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025) | Signals the rapid expansion of the overall market for Lilly's most important product category. |
| Lilly's Share of U.S. Type 2 Diabetes Incretin Market | More than 60% (Q3 2026) | Indicates dominant market leadership in the established diabetes segment of the incretin market. |
| Lilly's Share of International Incretins Market | Approximately 58% (Q3 2026) | Demonstrates the company's strong leadership position and successful global rollout of its incretin franchise. |
Core Investment Debate
Volume Runway vs. Pricing Headwinds
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe the massive, underpenetrated market (1 out of 10 in U.S.) provides years of volume growth that will vastly outweigh any pricing pressure. The company is gaining share internationally, reaching 58%, proving its global dominance.
CORE TENSION
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
BULLISH
The bull case is winning. Q3 results showed massive volume growth more than offsetting price declines, driving a 6.4% raise to full-year revenue guidance.
BEAR VIEW
Bears argue that high concentration (66% of revenue) and inevitable price concessions, like in China, will erode margins faster than expected. They see government pricing actions and intense competition as structural headwinds.
Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
December 10, 2026 | Quarterly Dividend Payment Watch: |
1/26/2027 | Peer Earnings Read-Through Watch: Competitor commentary on incretin market growth, pricing environment, and competitive dynamics from peers like JNJ and MRK. |
2/2/2027 | Disappointing 2027 Guidance Watch: Full-year 2027 revenue and EPS guidance relative to high market expectations, factoring in stated headwinds. |
2/2/2027 | Q4 Earnings and 2027 Guidance Watch: The company will report Q4 earnings and share its 2027 financial guidance. |
the first half of 2027 | SUNRAY-01 Trial Data Watch: The company expects first randomized Phase 3 data from the SUNRAY-01 trial of olomorasib in first-line KRAS G12C-mutant NSCLC. |
THIS_QUARTER | Foundayo Launch Scrutiny Watch: Weekly prescription data for Foundayo, management commentary on uptake, and the FDA decision on the diabetes indication. |
No set date | Negative Pricing Developments Watch: Announcements regarding definitive agreements with HHS, new legislation, or changes to the Inflation Reduction Act implementation. |
December 7th | Lilly Innovation Day Watch: The company will hold its Lilly Innovation Day. |
Key Events in Last 6 Months
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-10-29 | Q3 Results and Guidance Raise Details: EPS guidance was lowered due to IPR&D charges. | +10.0% $1288.30 -> $1417.54 |
2026-09-18 | Inluriyo Combination Approved Details: The U.S. FDA approved Inluriyo (imlunestrant) in combination with Verzenio (abemaciclib) for adults with ER+, HER2-, ESR1-mutated advanced or metastatic breast cancer. | +1.1% $1152.44 -> $1164.89 |
2026-08-31 | Merida Biosciences Acquisition Details: Lilly announced it would acquire Merida Biosciences to advance treatments for serious autoimmune and allergic diseases, strengthening its immunology capabilities. | -1.2% $1174.61 -> $1160.00 |
2026-08-05 | Q2 Earnings Beat Market Details: | +6.8% $1114.08 -> $1190.23 |
2026-07-16 | AtaiBeckley Acquisition Announced Details: Lilly agreed to acquire AtaiBeckley to advance therapies for treatment-resistant depression in a deal valued at up to approximately $3.8 billion. | +1.9% $1154.97 -> $1177.42 |
2026-05-31 | Positive Retevmo Adjuvant Data Details: Data showed Retevmo (selpercatinib) demonstrated an 83% reduction in the risk of disease recurrence or death as adjuvant therapy for early-stage RET fusion-positive lung cancer. | -4.0% $1125.19 -> $1080.65 |
2026-04-30 | Q1 Earnings and Guidance Raise Details: The company reported strong Q1 results and raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $82 billion to $85 billion, causing the stock to jump 6%. | +13.2% $848.53 -> $960.30 |
Risk Management
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: LLY trades at roughly 32% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (3.1x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
JNJ - Johnson & Johnson
Diversified Pharma Blue-ChipOffers a highly diversified business across pharmaceuticals, MedTech, and consumer health, providing more stable, albeit slower, growth and insulating investors from single-product-cycle risk.
Core Thesis: A defensive blue-chip holding with steady dividend growth and a diversified, less volatile earnings stream.
MRK - Merck
Alternative R&D BetProvides exposure to different therapeutic areas, particularly oncology and vaccines. Its R&D spend of $30.5 billion is nearly double Lilly's, representing a different bet on future pipeline success.
Core Thesis: A bet on a major pipeline refresh, particularly in oncology, to drive its next growth cycle.
How Is The Market Pricing LLY?
A dominant pharmaceutical leader capitalizing on an unprecedented market expansion in obesity and diabetes treatments, using the resulting cash flow to fund a massive manufacturing build-out and a broad R&D pipeline to secure its next decade of growth.
Eli Lilly's current investment thesis is centered on its overwhelming leadership in the rapidly growing incretin market with Mounjaro and Zepbound. The company is in a hyper-growth phase, converting massive demand into revenue and expanding margins. The key long-term question is whether its aggressive investments in manufacturing capacity and a diversified pipeline (oncology, immunology, neuroscience) will successfully create the next wave of blockbusters to sustain growth beyond the current incretin boom.
What will confirm the thesis
Continued high-volume growth for Mounjaro and Zepbound, successful global uptake of new products like Foundayo, and positive late-stage clinical trial data from non-incretin pipeline assets.
What will damage the thesis
A significant slowdown in incretin market growth, major manufacturing disruptions that prevent meeting demand, meaningful new competition that forces a price war, or key clinical trial failures in the oncology or immunology pipelines.
Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis
Minor quarterly fluctuations in channel inventory or adjustments to rebate estimates.
Repricing Catalyst
The pace of global uptake for the new oral incretin, Foundayo (orforglipron), and the volume impact from expanded access programs like the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge in the U.S.
What LLY Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on the twelve months through fiscal Q3 2026
LLY Evolution: Price Return by Era
2021-2022 · Pre-Incretin Dominance
+127%
2023-Present · The Incretin Explosion
+287%
This hyper-growth is overwhelmingly driven by the successful launch and massive global demand for its GLP-1/GIP dual agonist products, Mounjaro and Zepbound, for diabetes and obesity.
Market Appears To Be Aligned With Core Thesis
Price structure is strongly bullish. The regime, trend, and proximity to highs all point towards intact institutional trend. Relative to SPY: Decisively outperforming and improving. Potential evidence of active institutional rotation. Volume and momentum are strongly confirming. The institutional accumulation is evident and momentum is accelerating. Earnings history is supportive. The reaction and drift are both positive, and the market is accepting the narrative.
① Structure
+4
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
+4
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
+2
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
10 / 12
1
Price Structure & Trend
Trending Up · -
▾
2
Momentum
Accelerating
▾
3
Relative Strength vs. SPY
Strong Outperformance
▾
4
Institutional Footprint & Volume
Mild Accumulation
▾
5
Volatility
Normal
▾
6
Key Price Levels
Range · Vol Rising
▾
7
Earnings Reaction History
Inconsistent
▾
8
How the Verdict Is Derived
Three Pillars
▾
Eli Lilly — Investor Video Playlist
Investor / Analyst
Why Did Lilly Raise Revenue Guidance but Cut Non-GAAP EPS?｜Q3 2026 Sales and Research Costs
Investor / Analyst
Eli Lilly (LLY) Earnings Call Q3 2026 | Key Product revenue +100%
Investor / Analyst
Lilly Sales Soar 39% on Mounjaro, Zepbound as Merck's Keytruda Qlex Shot Beats: Q3 Earnings
Investor / Analyst
Eli Lilly and Company Q2 2026 Earnings Call | Zepbound & Mounjaro Demand Drives EPS Beat
Investor / Analyst
Eli Lilly Stock Analysis (LLY) | Q2 2026 Earnings, Mounjaro, Zepbound & Pipeline
Leadership
Eli Lilly CFO Lucas Montrace Explains What Drove 56% Year over Year Revenue Beat
Investor / Analyst
Eli Lilly Q1 FY26 Earnings Call | $LLY | 🔴 WATCH LIVE
Investor / Analyst
🚀Lilly Earnings Beat Again! $19.3B Revenue & Massive GLP-1 Growth Sends Stock Surging! #LLY
Leadership
Eli Lilly CEO David Ricks on pricing of the new weight loss pill if approved
Products & Services
Lilly Manufacturing
Industry Resources
| Health Care Resources |
| U.S. National Library of Medicine |
| ClinicalTrials.gov |
| Modern Healthcare |
| Healthcare Dive |
| Fierce Healthcare |
| Health Affairs |
| Health Data Management |
| FDA Tracker |
| Pharmaceuticals Resources |
| Fierce Pharma |
| Pharm Exec |
| Endpoints News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 10/31/2026