4D Molecular Therapeutics (FDMT)
Market Price (8/20/2026): $16.6 | Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
4D Molecular Therapeutics (FDMT)
Market Price (8/20/2026): $16.6Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -31% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 278712% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -84% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -197 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -214% Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 102% Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -170%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -170% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 57% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -22% Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 17.69 Key risksFDMT key risks include [1] the potential clinical failure of its lead candidate, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -31% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 278712% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -84% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -197 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -214% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 102% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -170%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -170% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 57% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -22% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 17.69 |
| Key risksFDMT key risks include [1] the potential clinical failure of its lead candidate, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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4D Molecular Therapeutics (FDMT) stock has gained about 90% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Positive Clinical Trial Updates for 4D-150 in Wet AMD.
4D Molecular Therapeutics announced positive 2-year data from the 4D-150 PRISM Phase 2b clinical trial in July 2026, demonstrating sustained visual and anatomic outcomes with a significant 78-87% reduction in treatment burden compared to projected aflibercept dosing, and an ongoing favorable safety profile. Furthermore, enrollment was completed for both 4D-150 4FRONT-1 and 4FRONT-2 Phase 3 wet AMD trials in February 2026 and June 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), respectively, with topline data anticipated in Q2 2027 and H2 2027.
2. Strengthened Financial Position and Extended Cash Runway.
In fiscal Q2 2026, 4D Molecular Therapeutics secured a strategic credit facility of up to $200 million from Hercules Capital, with an initial draw of $20 million, which enhanced the company's financial flexibility. The company reported cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities of $430.6 million as of June 30, 2026 (end of fiscal Q2 2026), projecting its existing funds, along with expected payments from its Otsuka collaboration, to be sufficient to fund operations into at least the second half of 2028.
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4D Molecular Therapeutics (FDMT) stock has gained about 90% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Positive Clinical Trial Updates for 4D-150 in Wet AMD.
4D Molecular Therapeutics announced positive 2-year data from the 4D-150 PRISM Phase 2b clinical trial in July 2026, demonstrating sustained visual and anatomic outcomes with a significant 78-87% reduction in treatment burden compared to projected aflibercept dosing, and an ongoing favorable safety profile. Furthermore, enrollment was completed for both 4D-150 4FRONT-1 and 4FRONT-2 Phase 3 wet AMD trials in February 2026 and June 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), respectively, with topline data anticipated in Q2 2027 and H2 2027.
2. Strengthened Financial Position and Extended Cash Runway.
In fiscal Q2 2026, 4D Molecular Therapeutics secured a strategic credit facility of up to $200 million from Hercules Capital, with an initial draw of $20 million, which enhanced the company's financial flexibility. The company reported cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities of $430.6 million as of June 30, 2026 (end of fiscal Q2 2026), projecting its existing funds, along with expected payments from its Otsuka collaboration, to be sufficient to fund operations into at least the second half of 2028.
3. Initiation of a Phase 3 Trial for 4D-150 in Diabetic Macular Edema (DME).
The company announced plans to initiate a global Phase 3 clinical trial for 4D-150 in Diabetic Macular Edema (DME) during Q3 2026. This expansion of their late-stage clinical pipeline for 4D-150, alongside promising 2-year SPECTRA Phase 1/2 data expected in Q4 2026, likely contributed to positive investor sentiment regarding future growth potential.
4. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Upgrades.
During this period, several analysts reiterated "Buy" or upgraded their ratings for FDMT, contributing to a consensus "Moderate Buy" or "Buy" rating. For instance, Chardan Capital upgraded the stock to a "strong-buy" on July 28, 2026, and HC Wainwright reaffirmed a "buy" rating with a $36.00 price target on July 20, 2026. The average analyst price target ranged from $29.10 to $31.33, indicating a substantial potential upside.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 89.0% change in FDMT stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 92.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.87 | 16.76 | 89.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 85 | 92 | 8.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 6.7 | 12.8 | 92.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 64 | 70 | -9.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 89.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FDMT | 89.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | 25.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 20.3% | 2.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 89.2% change in FDMT stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 76573.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.86 | 16.76 | 89.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 92 | 76573.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 4,144.0 | 12.8 | -99.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 56 | 70 | -20.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 89.2% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FDMT | 89.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.4% | 31.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 14.0% | 18.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 272.4% change in FDMT stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 399934.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.50 | 16.76 | 272.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 92 | 399934.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 10,906.4 | 12.8 | -99.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 56 | 70 | -20.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 272.4% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FDMT | 272.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.7% | 17.2% |
| Sector (XLV) | 36.4% | 15.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -8.4% change in FDMT stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -95.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 18.30 | 16.76 | -8.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2 | 92 | 4068.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 271.3 | 12.8 | -95.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 33 | 70 | -53.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -8.4% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FDMT | -8.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.9% | 20.2% |
| Sector (XLV) | 37.1% | 20.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FDMT Return | -47% | 1% | -9% | -73% | 35% | 96% | -64% |
| Peers Return | 14% | -9% | 21% | -13% | 39% | 20% | 83% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FDMT Win Rate | 33% | 42% | 42% | 25% | 75% | 62% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 48% | 48% | 47% | 68% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FDMT Max Drawdown | -63% | -75% | -58% | -85% | -62% | -28% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -40% | -32% | -42% | -37% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: REGN, VRTX, RGNX, KRYS, MGTX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/19/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FDMT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -46.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 88.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -45.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 84.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -23.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.7% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 8 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -74.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 298.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 159 days | 427 days |
In The Past
4D Molecular Therapeutics's stock fell -46.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 88.4% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | FDMT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -46.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 88.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -45.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 84.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -23.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.7% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 8 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -74.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 298.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 159 days | 427 days |
In The Past
4D Molecular Therapeutics's stock fell -46.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 88.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About 4D Molecular Therapeutics (FDMT)
4D Molecular Therapeutics (FDMT) is a clinical-stage gene therapy company focused on developing innovative treatments for various diseases. The company's core technology involves utilizing proprietary adeno-associated virus (AAV) vectors to deliver therapeutic genes, aiming to address the underlying genetic causes of illnesses. Its pipeline is strategically concentrated across three significant therapeutic areas: ophthalmology, cardiology, and pulmonology.
The company's product portfolio includes several candidates in different stages of development. Currently, three drug candidates are in Phase 1/2 clinical trials: 4D-125 for X-linked retinitis pigmentosa, 4D-110 for choroideremia, and 4D-310 for Fabry disease. Additionally, 4D Molecular Therapeutics has two investigational new drug (IND) candidates, 4D-150, which is being developed for wet age-related macular degeneration, and 4D-710, targeting cystic fibrosis lung disease.
4D Molecular Therapeutics' primary market consists of patients suffering from severe genetic and degenerative diseases in the ophthalmic, cardiac, and pulmonary fields. The company serves these markets by developing gene therapies that could offer transformative treatment options. To advance its research and development, 4D Molecular Therapeutics also engages in strategic research and collaboration arrangements with various partners, including uniQure, CRF, Roche, and CFF.
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Here are 1-2 brief analogies to describe 4D Molecular Therapeutics (FDMT):
Imagine an early-stage Amgen or Regeneron, but exclusively focused on developing gene therapies for serious genetic and other diseases.
Think of it like Moderna, but for gene therapies using AAV vectors instead of mRNA for vaccines.
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- 4D-125: A gene therapy product candidate in Phase 1/2 clinical trials for the treatment of X-linked retinitis pigmentosa.
- 4D-110: A gene therapy product candidate in Phase 1/2 clinical trials for the treatment of choroideremia.
- 4D-310: A gene therapy product candidate in Phase 1/2 clinical trials for the treatment of Fabry disease.
- 4D-150: An IND candidate gene therapy product for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration.
- 4D-710: An IND candidate gene therapy product for the treatment of cystic fibrosis lung disease.
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4D Molecular Therapeutics (FDMT) is a clinical-stage gene therapy company. At this stage, it does not sell commercial products to individuals or other companies in the traditional sense. Instead, its primary business interactions involve research and collaboration arrangements for the development of its product candidates.
Based on the provided information, 4D Molecular Therapeutics' major customers, in the context of research and collaboration arrangements, are other companies and organizations with whom they partner. These collaborators typically provide funding or resources in exchange for access to FDMT's technology or pipeline.
The major customer companies identified are:
- uniQure (QURE)
- Roche (RHHBY)
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David Kirn, MD Co-Founder, Chief Executive Officer, and President
Dr. David Kirn is a co-founder and has served as Chief Executive Officer of 4D Molecular Therapeutics since its inception in 2013. He is also President of the company. With over 30 years of experience as a physician-scientist, entrepreneur, innovator, and serial CEO, Dr. Kirn has co-founded and led four viral vector-based genetic medicines companies. Three of these companies were either acquired or went public. Notably, he co-founded and served as CEO of Ignite Immunotherapy Inc., which was acquired by Pfizer. He also founded Jennerex, serving as its President and CEO from 2003 until its acquisition in 2013. Earlier in his career, Dr. Kirn held senior clinical research and development positions at Onyx Pharmaceuticals (VP) and Celgene (SVP) and acted as a strategic advisor to companies such as Novartis, Bayer, Pfizer, and Biogen. He also holds a position as a professor at UC Berkeley.
Kristian Humer Chief Financial Officer
Kristian Humer was appointed Chief Financial Officer of 4D Molecular Therapeutics in November 2025. He brings over two decades of experience in corporate finance and biotechnology to the role. Prior to joining 4DMT, Mr. Humer served as CFO for publicly traded companies, including Foghorn Therapeutics, Inc. from April 2024 to November 2025, and Viridian Therapeutics, Inc. from July 2021 to September 2023. Before his CFO roles, he spent over a decade at Citi, where he was a Managing Director in the Healthcare Investment Banking Group from 2010 to 2021, advising clients on strategic initiatives such as equity and equity-linked financings, mergers, and acquisitions.
Julie Clark, MD Chief Medical Officer
Dr. Julie Clark was promoted to Chief Medical Officer in September 2025. She has more than 20 years of experience in retina and global clinical development, with a proven track record across 10 BLA-enabling studies, including six Phase 3 trials. Her leadership roles have contributed to the approval and commercialization of several therapeutics, including EYLEA®, JETREA®, BEOVU®, and IZERVAY®. Before joining 4DMT in summer 2025 as SVP, Clinical Research & Development, Dr. Clark held senior leadership positions at companies such as Novartis, Iveric Bio, Adverum, and Opthea. She was instrumental in the development and approval of IZERVAY® while leading clinical development at Iveric Bio.
Chris Simms Chief Commercial & Business Officer
Chris Simms' role expanded to Chief Commercial & Business Officer in January 2026, where he now oversees business development in addition to his existing commercial leadership responsibilities. He is a key member of a high-performing team that has delivered significant results in the past, including at Iveric Bio.
Katy Barglow, PhD Chief Technical Officer
Dr. Katy Barglow was promoted to Chief Technical Officer in January 2026. Since joining 4DMT in 2017, she has been instrumental in establishing and scaling the company's AAV manufacturing and analytical capabilities. In her current role, Dr. Barglow is responsible for overseeing the transition to commercial manufacturing, including CMC quality, supply chain, and technical operations.
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1. Clinical Trial Outcomes and Regulatory Approval
As a clinical-stage biotechnology company, 4D Molecular Therapeutics' success is critically dependent on the favorable outcomes of its ongoing and future clinical trials and subsequent regulatory approvals. The company's lead candidate, 4D-150, is in Phase 3 trials for wet age-related macular degeneration (wet AMD) and diabetic macular edema (DME), and failure in these pivotal trials could significantly impact the company's valuation and commercialization prospects. The development of gene therapies involves navigating a complex regulatory landscape, with manufacturing challenges that can delay product launches and increase costs. A previous clinical hold on the company's Fabry disease program (4D-310) due to serious kidney conditions in patients underscores the inherent safety risks and potential for adverse events in gene therapy development. Furthermore, concerns have been raised regarding the long-term durability of 4D-150, particularly in DME, which could potentially limit its total addressable market. Gene therapies, in general, carry risks such as immune system reactions, toxicity, immunogenicity, and the potential for unintended effects on non-targeted cells or organs.
2. Funding and Cash Burn
As a pre-revenue company, 4D Molecular Therapeutics operates with substantial research and development (R&D) expenses, leading to a significant cash burn rate. The company's financial performance reflects ongoing investment without current profitability, with net losses and projected negative earnings per share for upcoming fiscal years. While 4D Molecular Therapeutics reportedly has a substantial cash reserve expected to fund operations into 2028, a material financial risk remains if pivotal clinical trial results are disappointing, which could make it challenging to raise further capital and potentially lead to equity dilution for existing investors.
3. Intense Competition
The gene therapy sector, particularly in ophthalmology for conditions like wet AMD and DME, is characterized by intense competition from numerous companies developing similar treatments. The emergence of rival therapies that demonstrate superior efficacy or durability could exert pressure on 4D Molecular Therapeutics' market position and pricing power. Beyond specific disease indications, competition also extends to attracting talent, securing manufacturing capacity, and acquiring investor capital within the broader gene therapy landscape.
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Addressable Markets for 4D Molecular Therapeutics (FDMT) Main Products
4D Molecular Therapeutics (FDMT) is developing gene therapy product candidates across three therapeutic areas: ophthalmology, cardiology, and pulmonology. The addressable markets for their main product candidates are as follows:
- 4D-125 for X-linked retinitis pigmentosa: The total Retinitis Pigmentosa (RP) market size in the United States was estimated to be nearly USD 270 million in 2023, with other estimates at approximately USD 260 million in 2023. The global Retinitis Pigmentosa market is projected to grow from USD 14.27 billion in 2024 to USD 30.69 billion by 2035, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.21%. Another source indicates the global market was valued at USD 14.7 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 30.31 billion by 2035. X-linked retinitis pigmentosa (XLRP) is a rarer form of non-syndromic retinitis pigmentosa, accounting for approximately 15% of such cases, with around 16,500 cases in the 7 Major Markets (7MM: US, EU4, UK, and Japan) in 2023.
- 4D-110 for choroideremia: The global choroideremia treatment market size was valued at USD 9.79 billion in 2025 and is projected to exceed USD 15.65 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of more than 4.8% during the forecast period. North America is expected to hold the largest revenue share, with the United States having the largest patient pool and market for its treatment. Another report indicates the global market was valued at US$ 3.5 billion in 2022 and is expected to reach US$ 5.5 billion by 2031.
- 4D-310 for Fabry disease: The global Fabry disease treatment market size was estimated at USD 2.54 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 4.93 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 9.9%. Other reports estimate the global market size at USD 2.3 billion in 2024, projected to reach USD 5.1 billion by 2032, and USD 2.45 billion in 2025, expected to reach approximately USD 5.20 billion by 2035. The United States accounted for approximately 52% of the total market size in the 7MM in 2024, generating about USD 880 million.
- 4D-150 for wet age-related macular degeneration (wet AMD): The wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) market size was USD 10.6 billion for 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 16.7 billion by 2032. The market size in the 7MM was nearly USD 7,783 million in 2023. The United States represented approximately 33% of the total 7MM market size in 2023, equating to about USD 2,599 million. The wet AMD market across the top 7 markets (US, EU4, UK, and Japan) reached USD 9,528.8 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 18,317.5 million by 2035.
- 4D-710 for cystic fibrosis lung disease: The global cystic fibrosis market size was USD 12.9 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 32.3 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 9.6% from 2025 to 2034. Another report states the global market size stood at USD 5.12 billion in 2019 and is projected to reach USD 62.57 billion by 2032. North America dominated this market, with a 75.98% share in 2019, and accounted for approximately 45% of the global market share. In 2023, the cystic fibrosis market size in the 7MM was approximately USD 18,743 million, with the US accounting for about USD 9,473 million.
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Share Issuance
- In February 2024, 4D Molecular Therapeutics completed a public offering of common stock and prefunded warrants, generating approximately $316 million in net proceeds, which contributed to an increase in cash and cash equivalents.
- The number of outstanding shares increased by 10.07% in one year, reaching 57,135,075 shares as of March 6, 2026.
Capital Expenditures
- For the fiscal year 2024, capital expenditures were reported as $3.8 million, which consumed a significant portion of the company's operating cash flow.
- In Q3 2025, capital expenditures totaled -$91K, representing a 237.9% decrease from the previous quarter, and for the most recent quarter available, capital expenditures were 0.09 million USD.
- Over the last 12 months, capital expenditures amounted to -$1.56 million.
Peer Outperformance in Biotechnology
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care Distributors | 7 | 8.4% | 80.2% | 137.8% | CAH 410% · MCK 337% · COR 180% |
| Health Care Services | 20 | 19.9% | 44.4% | 9.4% | HIMS 337% · RDNT 147% · DGX 75% |
| Managed Health Care | 8 | 32.1% | -4.0% | -0.3% | OSCR 138% · HQY 65% · ELV 13% |
| Health Care Facilities | 24 | 8.8% | -3.9% | -15.3% | THC 270% · NHC 261% · ENSG 126% |
| Health Care Equipment | 51 | -1.1% | -6.1% | -17.6% | POCI 11000% · UFPT 381% · GKOS 287% |
| Health Care Supplies | 12 | 38.2% | -12.0% | -25.7% | LNTH 302% · HAE 82% · MMSI 33% |
| Pharmaceuticals | 63 | 7.3% | 0.7% | -29.1% | LQDA 2808% · INDV 1373% · ETON 1294% |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services | 108 | -0.5% | -31.3% | -70.9% | SNWV 1990% · ELMD 257% · MEDP 241% |
| Health Care Technology | 20 | -23.4% | -53.0% | -73.9% | SPOK 118% · HSTM -3% · VEEV -22% |
| Biotechnology ← | 366 | 17.1% | -23.9% | -76.7% | BRTX 106550% · DNTH 1652% · CELZ 1500% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| 4D Molecular Therapeutics Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Is 4D Molecular Therapeutics Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 343.34 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.1 |
| Rev LTM | 440 |
| Op Inc LTM | 198 |
| FCF LTM | 258 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 140 |
| CFO LTM | 272 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 150 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 18.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 24.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 10.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 13.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 23.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 23.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.7% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $16.76 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/11/2020 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $10.99 | $9.78 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 52.4% | 71.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 85.4% | 80.9% |
| Downside Capture | -106.80 | 119.64 |
| Upside Capture | 225.85 | 201.52 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 23.2% | 31.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.05 | 1.94 | 2.13 | 1.97 | 1.38 | 1.30 |
| Up Beta | 2.96 | 4.03 | 2.90 | 2.15 | 2.03 | 1.22 |
| Down Beta | 1.93 | 2.82 | 2.13 | 1.35 | 0.89 | 1.47 |
| Up Capture | -21% | 122% | 242% | 282% | 267% | 128% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 23 | 37 | 67 | 126 | 355 |
| Down Capture | 359% | 94% | 169% | 176% | 101% | 109% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 19 | 25 | 56 | 120 | 381 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FDMT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDMT | 131.3% | 81.3% | 1.38 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 31.1% | 15.8% | 1.51 | 17.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.7% | 12.8% | 1.19 | 30.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 35.0% | 28.8% | 1.04 | 19.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 41.4% | 20.2% | 1.60 | -8.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 15.3% | 13.9% | 0.78 | 8.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -44.7% | 42.7% | -1.27 | 24.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FDMT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDMT | -8.3% | 92.6% | 0.30 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 7.6% | 15.1% | 0.31 | 21.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.2% | 0.59 | 23.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.4% | 18.6% | 0.89 | 6.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.8% | 19.6% | 0.39 | -3.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.4% | 18.9% | 0.03 | 17.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.2% | 52.6% | 0.32 | 13.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FDMT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDMT | -7.6% | 91.1% | 0.23 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 10.8% | 16.7% | 0.53 | 20.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 23.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.5% | 16.2% | 0.63 | 5.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.9% | 18.1% | 0.35 | -1.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 17.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.0% | 1.00 | 13.3% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/13/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | 2.1% | -1.2% | -13.0% |
| 3/18/2026 | 4.9% | 15.4% | 22.5% |
| 11/10/2025 | -3.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% |
| 8/11/2025 | -1.8% | 29.0% | 23.8% |
| 5/8/2025 | -4.9% | -1.2% | 47.8% |
| 2/28/2025 | -8.6% | -10.2% | -28.7% |
| 1/10/2025 | -5.5% | -19.9% | -9.0% |
| 11/13/2024 | 4.0% | 9.1% | -15.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.4% | 5.0% | 22.5% |
| Median Negative | -4.0% | -3.0% | -12.0% |
| Max Positive | 12.7% | 143.5% | 171.1% |
| Max Negative | -8.6% | -21.8% | -38.6% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | 2.1% | -1.2% | -13.0% |
| 3/18/2026 | 4.9% | 15.4% | 22.5% |
| 11/10/2025 | -3.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% |
| 8/11/2025 | -1.8% | 29.0% | 23.8% |
| 5/8/2025 | -4.9% | -1.2% | 47.8% |
| 2/28/2025 | -8.6% | -10.2% | -28.7% |
| 1/10/2025 | -5.5% | -19.9% | -9.0% |
| 11/13/2024 | 4.0% | 9.1% | -15.7% |
| 8/8/2024 | 0.5% | -0.3% | 3.5% |
| 5/9/2024 | 0.2% | 0.0% | -12.0% |
| 2/29/2024 | 4.8% | 5.3% | 7.1% |
| 11/9/2023 | 5.2% | 5.0% | 37.3% |
| 8/9/2023 | -2.3% | -6.5% | -8.0% |
| 5/11/2023 | 6.0% | 4.3% | 35.7% |
| 3/15/2023 | 5.7% | -3.0% | -6.9% |
| 11/9/2022 | 12.7% | 143.5% | 171.1% |
| 8/11/2022 | -8.3% | -16.0% | -12.1% |
| 5/12/2022 | -4.4% | -21.8% | -38.6% |
| 11/10/2021 | 0.2% | -2.3% | -11.3% |
| 8/12/2021 | -3.2% | -2.1% | 20.3% |
| 5/13/2021 | 0.3% | 3.9% | 10.8% |
| 3/25/2021 | -3.6% | 1.3% | -6.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.4% | 5.0% | 22.5% |
| Median Negative | -4.0% | -3.0% | -12.0% |
| Max Positive | 12.7% | 143.5% | 171.1% |
| Max Negative | -8.6% | -21.8% | -38.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/13/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/13/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/13/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/28/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/12/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/13/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/25/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 12/14/2020 | 424B4 |
| 06/30/2019 | 09/30/2019 | S-1 |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/27/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2028 Cash Runway | 2,028 | ||||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/18/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Otsuka Cost Sharing | 50.00 Mil | ||||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/10/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Upfront Cash Payment | 85.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2028 Cost Sharing | 50.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2028 Potential Regulatory and Commercial Milestones | 336.00 Mil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 8/4/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kirn, David | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 10.05 | 12,415 | 124,722 | 8,757,557 | Form |
| 2 | Kirn, David | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 7142026 | 12.03 | 15,725 | 189,233 | 10,639,782 | Form |
| 3 | Kirn, David | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 7142026 | 12.87 | 42,608 | 548,177 | 11,577,458 | Form |
| 4 | Bizily, Scott | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 14.00 | 6,566 | 91,924 | 120,638 | Form |
| 5 | Bizily, Scott | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 6252026 | 12.00 | 9,810 | 117,720 | 103,404 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kirn, David | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 10.05 | 12,415 | 124,722 | 8,757,557 | Form |
| 2 | Kirn, David | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 7142026 | 12.03 | 15,725 | 189,233 | 10,639,782 | Form |
| 3 | Kirn, David | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 7142026 | 12.87 | 42,608 | 548,177 | 11,577,458 | Form |
| 4 | Bizily, Scott | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 14.00 | 6,566 | 91,924 | 120,638 | Form |
| 5 | Bizily, Scott | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 6252026 | 12.00 | 9,810 | 117,720 | 103,404 | Form |
| 6 | Kirn, David | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6232026 | 10.47 | 114,746 | 1,200,851 | 9,863,388 | Form |
| 7 | Kirn, David | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 10.02 | 1,922 | 19,258 | 10,593,137 | Form |
| 8 | Gupta, Ashoo | VP, Finance and Controller | Direct | Sell | 3242026 | 8.61 | 390 | 3,358 | 403,930 | Form |
| 9 | Gupta, Ashoo | VP, Finance and Controller | Direct | Sell | 12232025 | 8.68 | 389 | 3,377 | 401,172 | Form |
| 10 | Bizily, Scott | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 12192025 | 10.90 | 1,635 | 17,822 | 39,175 | Form |
| 11 | Bizily, Scott | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 10.59 | 1,635 | 17,315 | 38,060 | Form |
| 12 | Bizily, Scott | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 10272025 | 12.00 | 2,678 | 32,136 | 43,128 | Form |
| 13 | Bizily, Scott | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 10202025 | 10.17 | 1,635 | 16,628 | 52,762 | Form |
| 14 | Bizily, Scott | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 10142025 | 10.00 | 2,408 | 24,080 | 51,880 | Form |
| 15 | Bizily, Scott | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 9262025 | 8.00 | 2,407 | 19,256 | 60,768 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 20, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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