4D Molecular Therapeutics (FDMT)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $9.185 | Market Cap: $515.5 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
4D Molecular Therapeutics (FDMT)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $9.185Market Cap: $515.5 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -55% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -85%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -132% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -230 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -191982% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 606% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4,308x | |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -48% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 125% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -152913%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -154285% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -45% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 100% | ||
| Key risksFDMT key risks include [1] the potential clinical failure of its lead candidate, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -55% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 606% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -48% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -85%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -132% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -230 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -191982% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4,308x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 125% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -152913%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -154285% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -45% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 100% |
| Key risksFDMT key risks include [1] the potential clinical failure of its lead candidate, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
FDMT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Positive Interim Clinical Data for 4D-710 in Cystic Fibrosis: On December 17, 2025, 4D Molecular Therapeutics announced positive interim clinical data from its 4D-710 Phase 1 AEROW clinical trial for cystic fibrosis lung disease. The results highlighted clinically meaningful lung function activity and durable CFTR transgene expression, supporting the potential of 4D-710 as a disease-modifying treatment.
2. Strategic Partnership and Significant Funding: In late October and early November 2025, 4DMT secured an exclusive Asia-Pacific (APAC) license for its 4D-150 gene therapy with Otsuka Pharmaceutical. This agreement included an $85 million upfront payment, an expectation of at least $50 million in cost-sharing over three years, and eligibility for up to $336 million in potential regulatory and commercial milestones and tiered double-digit royalties. This partnership substantially strengthened the company's financial outlook.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FDMT Return | � | -47% | 1% | -9% | -73% | 107% | � |
| Peers Return | 6% | 14% | -9% | 21% | -13% | 39% | 62% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FDMT Win Rate | � | 33% | 42% | 42% | 25% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 48% | 48% | 48% | 47% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FDMT Max Drawdown | � | -53% | -74% | -56% | -74% | -55% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -25% | -32% | -21% | -28% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: REGN, VRTX, RGNX, KRYS, MGTX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FDMT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -89.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 827.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -18.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 148 days |
Compare to VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN
In The Past
4D Molecular Therapeutics's stock fell -89.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/11/2021. A -89.2% loss requires a 827.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| 4D Molecular Therapeutics Earnings Notes | ||
| Is 4D Molecular Therapeutics Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FDMT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for 4D Molecular Therapeutics
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 124.48 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.8 |
| Rev LTM | 267 |
| Op Inc LTM | -123 |
| FCF LTM | 30 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -42 |
| CFO LTM | 36 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -31 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 72.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -48.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -359.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -16.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -273.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -19.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -306.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.8 |
| P/S | 13.4 |
| P/EBIT | 4.5 |
| P/E | 5.1 |
| P/CFO | 4.3 |
| Total Yield | -11.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -11.8% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 33.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 50.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 33.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 18.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 26.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 37.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 26.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -51.4% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/10/2025 | -3.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% |
| 8/11/2025 | -1.8% | 29.0% | 23.8% |
| 2/28/2025 | -8.6% | -10.2% | -28.7% |
| 11/13/2024 | 4.0% | 9.1% | -15.7% |
| 8/8/2024 | 0.5% | -0.3% | 3.5% |
| 5/9/2024 | 0.2% | 0.0% | -12.0% |
| 2/29/2024 | 4.8% | 5.3% | 7.1% |
| 11/9/2023 | 5.2% | 5.0% | 37.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 7 |
| # Negative | 7 | 7 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.8% | 5.0% | 20.3% |
| Median Negative | -3.2% | -3.0% | -12.0% |
| Max Positive | 12.7% | 143.5% | 171.1% |
| Max Negative | -8.6% | -16.0% | -28.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11102025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8112025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11132024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5112023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5122022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |