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4D Molecular Therapeutics (FDMT)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $9.185 | Market Cap: $515.5 Mil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

4D Molecular Therapeutics (FDMT)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $9.185
Market Cap: $515.5 Mil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -55%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -85%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -132%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -230 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -191982%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 606%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4,308x
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -48%
  Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 125%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -152913%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -154285%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -45%
5   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 100%
6   Key risks
FDMT key risks include [1] the potential clinical failure of its lead candidate, Show more.
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -55%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 606%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -48%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Targeted Therapies, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -85%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -132%
5 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -230 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -191982%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4,308x
7 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 125%
8 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -152913%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -154285%
9 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -45%
10 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 100%
11 Key risks
FDMT key risks include [1] the potential clinical failure of its lead candidate, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

FDMT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Positive Interim Clinical Data for 4D-710 in Cystic Fibrosis: On December 17, 2025, 4D Molecular Therapeutics announced positive interim clinical data from its 4D-710 Phase 1 AEROW clinical trial for cystic fibrosis lung disease. The results highlighted clinically meaningful lung function activity and durable CFTR transgene expression, supporting the potential of 4D-710 as a disease-modifying treatment.

2. Strategic Partnership and Significant Funding: In late October and early November 2025, 4DMT secured an exclusive Asia-Pacific (APAC) license for its 4D-150 gene therapy with Otsuka Pharmaceutical. This agreement included an $85 million upfront payment, an expectation of at least $50 million in cost-sharing over three years, and eligibility for up to $336 million in potential regulatory and commercial milestones and tiered double-digit royalties. This partnership substantially strengthened the company's financial outlook.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
FDMT Return-47%1%-9%-73%107%
Peers Return6%14%-9%21%-13%39%62%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
FDMT Win Rate33%42%42%25%75% 
Peers Win Rate53%48%48%48%47%70% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
FDMT Max Drawdown-53%-74%-56%-74%-55% 
Peers Max Drawdown-31%-25%-32%-21%-28%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: REGN, VRTX, RGNX, KRYS, MGTX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventFDMTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-89.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven827.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-18.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven22.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven27 days148 days

Compare to VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN


In The Past

4D Molecular Therapeutics's stock fell -89.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/11/2021. A -89.2% loss requires a 827.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About 4D Molecular Therapeutics (FDMT)

Better Bets than 4D Molecular Therapeutics (FDMT)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to FDMT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for 4D Molecular Therapeutics

Peers to compare with:

Financials

FDMTREGNVRTXRGNXKRYSMGTXMedian
Name4D Molec.Regenero.Vertex P.RegenxbioKrystal .MeiraGTx  
Mkt Price9.21749.79449.5213.17235.808.11124.48
Mkt Cap0.577.7114.90.76.80.73.8
Rev LTM014,24811,72316137327267
Op Inc LTM-2303,807-92-155158-164-123
FCF LTM-1853,8813,337-106166-12130
FCF 3Y Avg-1263,8532,064-17435-119-42
CFO LTM-1835,0713,718-103176-11636
CFO 3Y Avg-1234,8482,419-16845-106-31

Growth & Margins

FDMTREGNVRTXRGNXKRYSMGTXMedian
Name4D Molec.Regenero.Vertex P.RegenxbioKrystal .MeiraGTx  
Rev Chg LTM605.9%2.9%10.3%91.3%54.5%96.8%72.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg506.8%1.4%10.5%-1.0%-40.3%10.5%
Rev Chg Q2,900.0%0.9%11.0%22.9%16.6%-96.2%13.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM263.6%0.2%2.7%3.6%3.9%-27.7%3.1%
Op Mgn LTM-191,982.5%26.7%-0.8%-96.0%42.4%-597.9%-48.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-394,302.3%30.0%26.2%-216.3%-503.4%-1,291.2%-359.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM475,672.0%-0.9%1.0%9.6%0.1%-181.4%0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM-152,913.3%35.6%31.7%-64.0%47.2%-424.1%-16.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-273,380.4%35.4%23.1%-166.2%-380.3%-904.2%-273.2%
FCF/Rev LTM-154,285.0%27.2%28.5%-65.9%44.4%-441.5%-19.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-280,481.8%28.2%19.8%-172.6%-441.1%-1,053.9%-306.8%

Valuation

FDMTREGNVRTXRGNXKRYSMGTXMedian
Name4D Molec.Regenero.Vertex P.RegenxbioKrystal .MeiraGTx  
Mkt Cap0.577.7114.90.76.80.73.8
P/S4,307.74.18.53.118.323.913.4
P/EBIT-2.211.222.4-3.743.2-4.24.5
P/E-2.512.727.2-2.834.3-3.95.1
P/CFO-2.811.526.9-4.838.7-5.64.3
Total Yield-40.5%8.3%3.7%-35.7%2.9%-25.7%-11.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-23.9%4.9%2.3%-29.3%0.2%-32.6%-11.8%
D/E0.00.00.00.20.00.10.0
Net D/E-0.5-0.1-0.0-0.4-0.10.1-0.1

Returns

FDMTREGNVRTXRGNXKRYSMGTXMedian
Name4D Molec.Regenero.Vertex P.RegenxbioKrystal .MeiraGTx  
1M Rtn-15.9%6.5%3.6%18.2%13.2%2.9%5.0%
3M Rtn38.3%28.2%16.1%45.8%53.1%10.6%33.3%
6M Rtn125.2%46.4%0.2%53.7%78.5%25.2%50.0%
12M Rtn45.7%1.9%-4.2%55.5%39.5%26.7%33.1%
3Y Rtn-60.5%4.3%47.5%-43.3%195.3%33.0%18.6%
1M Excs Rtn-16.6%5.7%2.8%17.5%12.5%2.2%4.3%
3M Excs Rtn28.4%24.0%14.8%39.4%45.5%0.2%26.2%
6M Excs Rtn112.8%34.0%-12.1%41.3%66.1%12.8%37.7%
12M Excs Rtn30.6%-8.0%-14.1%48.0%33.0%21.4%26.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-132.3%-66.9%-25.4%-110.5%160.2%-35.9%-51.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Discovery, development and commercialization of genetic medicines for specific diseases21    
Astellas 0   
Cystic Fibrosis Foundation (CFF) 0   
uniQure 3   
Single Segment  18147
Total21318147


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,049,284
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-2.7%
Average Daily Volume736,893
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.85
Basic Shares Quantity56,126,330
Short % of Basic Shares9.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/10/2025-3.1%2.8%3.1%
8/11/2025-1.8%29.0%23.8%
2/28/2025-8.6%-10.2%-28.7%
11/13/20244.0%9.1%-15.7%
8/8/20240.5%-0.3%3.5%
5/9/20240.2%0.0%-12.0%
2/29/20244.8%5.3%7.1%
11/9/20235.2%5.0%37.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive997
# Negative779
Median Positive4.8%5.0%20.3%
Median Negative-3.2%-3.0%-12.0%
Max Positive12.7%143.5%171.1%
Max Negative-8.6%-16.0%-28.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251110202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025811202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241113202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023511202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022315202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022811202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022512202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021328202210-K 12/31/2021