Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD)
Market Price (7/12/2026): $7.61 | Market Cap: $166.0 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD)
Market Price (7/12/2026): $7.61Market Cap: $166.0 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -55% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -83%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -75 Mil Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -46% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 121% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -55% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -83%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -75 Mil |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -46% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 121% |
Qualitative Assessment
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Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD) stock has gained about 100% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Recovery from Heavily Oversold Conditions: Following substantial stock price declines, including a 56% drop in early March 2026 due to a voluntary pause of its lead ARD-101 Phase 3 trial and a further 32-34% plunge in mid-May 2026 after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued a full clinical hold on ARD-101, Aardvark Therapeutics' shares likely became significantly oversold. This severe undervaluation attracted bargain hunters and prompted short covering, driving a sharp rebound from its low point around $3.59 in early June 2026 to approximately $7.60 by early July 2026.
2. Commitment to ARD-101 Program and Financial Stability: Despite the FDA clinical hold, Aardvark announced in mid-May 2026 its plans to unblind the accumulated clinical data from its Phase 3 HERO and open-label extension (OLE) trials for ARD-101. This strategic move aims to evaluate the drug's overall safety and efficacy profile and determine a path forward. This proactive engagement, combined with the company's strong financial position, reporting $91.2 million in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments as of fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), which is projected to fund operations into mid-2027, provided investors with some reassurance regarding the company's resilience and ongoing commitment to its lead pipeline despite regulatory setbacks.
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Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD) stock has gained about 100% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Recovery from Heavily Oversold Conditions: Following substantial stock price declines, including a 56% drop in early March 2026 due to a voluntary pause of its lead ARD-101 Phase 3 trial and a further 32-34% plunge in mid-May 2026 after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued a full clinical hold on ARD-101, Aardvark Therapeutics' shares likely became significantly oversold. This severe undervaluation attracted bargain hunters and prompted short covering, driving a sharp rebound from its low point around $3.59 in early June 2026 to approximately $7.60 by early July 2026.
2. Commitment to ARD-101 Program and Financial Stability: Despite the FDA clinical hold, Aardvark announced in mid-May 2026 its plans to unblind the accumulated clinical data from its Phase 3 HERO and open-label extension (OLE) trials for ARD-101. This strategic move aims to evaluate the drug's overall safety and efficacy profile and determine a path forward. This proactive engagement, combined with the company's strong financial position, reporting $91.2 million in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments as of fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), which is projected to fund operations into mid-2027, provided investors with some reassurance regarding the company's resilience and ongoing commitment to its lead pipeline despite regulatory setbacks.
3. Underlying Therapeutic Potential and Pipeline Diversity: The earlier publication of positive Phase 2 proof-of-concept data for ARD-101 in the peer-reviewed journal Molecular Metabolism in March 2026, which demonstrated a significant reduction in self-reported hunger in patients with obesity, likely sustained some investor interest in the drug's underlying therapeutic potential. Although the ARD-201 program was also voluntarily paused, Aardvark's continued mention of ARD-201 and preclinical candidate WE-868 in its pipeline contributes to the perception of longer-term value, making the significantly discounted stock appealing to speculative investors anticipating future developments.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 101.9% change in AARD stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.77 | 7.61 | 101.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 22 | 22 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AARD | 101.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.1% | 30.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | 9.7% | 4.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -42.0% change in AARD stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -0.5% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.12 | 7.61 | -42.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 22 | 22 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AARD | -42.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.0% | 28.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 4.3% | 15.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -43.7% change in AARD stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -40.8% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.52 | 7.61 | -43.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | � | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 13 | 22 | -40.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AARD | -43.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 23.2% | 26.0% |
| Sector (XLV) | 20.9% | 16.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AARD | ||
| Market (SPY) | 76.3% | 24.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 26.9% | 21.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AARD Return | - | - | - | - | -8% | -62% | -65% |
| Peers Return | -23% | 64% | 20% | 4% | 173% | 10% | 374% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 101% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AARD Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 36% | 29% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 53% | 47% | 43% | 52% | 49% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AARD Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -78% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -58% | -64% | -64% | -54% | -46% | -35% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: RYTM, VKTX, ALT, RLMD, HRMY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/10/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AARD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -53.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 112.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 68 days | 79 days |
In The Past
Aardvark Therapeutics's stock fell -53.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 112.9% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | AARD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -53.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 112.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 68 days | 79 days |
In The Past
Aardvark Therapeutics's stock fell -53.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 112.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD)
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- Commercial Banking Services: Provides working capital loans, lines of credit, equipment financing, and other specialized lending products for businesses.
- Deposit and Treasury Management: Offers checking accounts, internet banking, payment processing, and cash management solutions for commercial clients.
- Retail Banking: Delivers general banking services to individual customers.
- Wealth Management: Provides financial planning and investment advisory services.
- Equipment Leasing: Originates and manages leases for a diverse range of equipment, including computer systems and industrial machinery.
- Mortgage Banking: Specializes in originating and servicing residential mortgage loans for sale to investors.
- Real Estate Financing and Services: Offers loans, deposit services, and treasury management solutions specifically for real estate operators and investors.
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Addressable Markets:
- ARD-101 for Prader-Willi Syndrome (PWS): The global market for Prader-Willi Syndrome treatment is estimated to be USD 0.98 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 1.59 billion by 2032, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2%. Another estimate values the global market at USD 599.81 million in 2023, expected to reach USD 1,131.94 million by 2033, with a CAGR of approximately 6.56%. In the U.S. alone, there are an estimated 10,000 to 20,000 individuals with Prader-Willi.
- ARD-201 for Obesity and obesity-related conditions: Aardvark Therapeutics is also developing ARD-201, a planned fixed-dose combination of ARD-101 with a DPP-4 inhibitor, for obesity and obesity-related conditions. Specific addressable market sizes in dollar amounts for this product were not available in the provided information.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Aardvark Therapeutics Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 21.87 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.3 |
| Rev LTM | 0 |
| Op Inc LTM | -86 |
| FCF LTM | -67 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -75 |
| CFO LTM | -67 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -75 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 58.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 93.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -8.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -2.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -90.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -170.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -2.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -55.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -96.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -55.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -113.4% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|
| Discovery and development of novel therapies for the treatment of metabolic diseases | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery and development of novel therapies for the treatment of metabolic diseases | -58 | -21 | -7 |
| Total | -58 | -21 | -7 |
| $ Mil | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|
| Discovery and development of novel therapies for the treatment of metabolic diseases | 11 | 17 |
| Total | 11 | 17 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $7.60 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/29/2006 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -56.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $4.87 | $11.84 |
| DMA Trend | down | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 56.0% | -35.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 151.5% | 122.0% |
| Downside Capture | 435.29 | 389.06 |
| Upside Capture | 522.65 | 245.59 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 44.1% | 27.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.21 | 3.25 | 2.72 | 2.73 | 2.38 | -0.05 |
| Up Beta | 2.21 | 1.91 | 1.14 | 3.65 | 1.49 | 0.54 |
| Down Beta | 4.62 | 4.29 | 4.17 | 2.30 | 1.77 | -0.65 |
| Up Capture | 412% | 396% | 460% | 119% | 306% | 79% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 36 | 66 | 129 | 177 |
| Down Capture | -36% | 322% | 307% | 237% | 192% | 109% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 19 | 27 | 59 | 122 | 165 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AARD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AARD | -40.4% | 121.4% | 0.21 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 20.3% | 15.7% | 0.98 | 17.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 22.1% | 12.5% | 1.31 | 26.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.5% | 27.8% | 0.75 | 8.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 23.6% | 18.7% | 0.99 | -11.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.4% | 13.9% | 0.67 | 13.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -42.5% | 42.8% | -1.17 | 14.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AARD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AARD | -12.4% | 121.9% | 0.22 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 6.5% | 14.9% | 0.25 | 21.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 25.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.8% | 18.3% | 0.79 | 5.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.3% | 19.5% | 0.27 | -7.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.9% | 18.9% | 0.05 | 20.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.8% | 53.4% | 0.44 | 14.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AARD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AARD | -6.4% | 121.9% | 0.22 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 10.3% | 16.6% | 0.51 | 21.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.6% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 25.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.6% | 16.1% | 0.59 | 5.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.0% | 18.0% | 0.26 | -7.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 20.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.6% | 66.2% | 0.99 | 14.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/12/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -4.9% | 11.9% | -37.5% |
| 11/13/2025 | -8.7% | -13.2% | 28.2% |
| 8/13/2025 | 0.5% | -13.7% | -23.3% |
| 5/14/2025 | 4.0% | 27.2% | 22.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| # Negative | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Median Positive | 2.3% | 19.6% | 25.5% |
| Median Negative | -6.8% | -13.4% | -30.4% |
| Max Positive | 4.0% | 27.2% | 28.2% |
| Max Negative | -8.7% | -13.7% | -37.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -4.9% | 11.9% | -37.5% |
| 11/13/2025 | -8.7% | -13.2% | 28.2% |
| 8/13/2025 | 0.5% | -13.7% | -23.3% |
| 5/14/2025 | 4.0% | 27.2% | 22.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| # Negative | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Median Positive | 2.3% | 19.6% | 25.5% |
| Median Negative | -6.8% | -13.4% | -30.4% |
| Max Positive | 4.0% | 27.2% | 28.2% |
| Max Negative | -8.7% | -13.7% | -37.5% |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/12/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Cash Runway | 2,028 | 0.0% | Raised | Guidance: 2,027 for 2027 | |||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/13/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Cash Runway | 2,027 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2,027 for 2027 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 4/26/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sun, Nelson | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 12122025 | 14.40 | 3,000 | 43,200 | 1,562,170 | Form |
| 2 | Lee, Tien-Li | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 12122025 | 14.48 | 7,000 | 101,395 | 22,475,114 | Form |
| 3 | Lee, Tien-Li | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 9162025 | 9.66 | 10,000 | 96,624 | 14,912,732 | Form |
| 4 | Lee, Tien-Li | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 9122025 | 8.50 | 5,000 | 42,516 | 13,038,517 | Form |
| 5 | Lee, Tien-Li | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 9122025 | 7.82 | 6,000 | 46,926 | 11,953,491 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sun, Nelson | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 12122025 | 14.40 | 3,000 | 43,200 | 1,562,170 | Form |
| 2 | Lee, Tien-Li | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 12122025 | 14.48 | 7,000 | 101,395 | 22,475,114 | Form |
| 3 | Lee, Tien-Li | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 9162025 | 9.66 | 10,000 | 96,624 | 14,912,732 | Form |
| 4 | Lee, Tien-Li | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 9122025 | 8.50 | 5,000 | 42,516 | 13,038,517 | Form |
| 5 | Lee, Tien-Li | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 9122025 | 7.82 | 6,000 | 46,926 | 11,953,491 | Form |
| 6 | Lee, Tien-Li | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 9122025 | 7.91 | 9,000 | 71,212 | 12,045,863 | Form |
| 7 | Sun, Nelson | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 9102025 | 8.07 | 6,000 | 48,440 | 851,604 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 12, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank and community-bank filers are excluded.
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