Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD)
Market Price (10/1/2026): $5.295 | Market Cap: $115.7 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD)
Market Price (10/1/2026): $5.295Market Cap: $115.7 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -64% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -97%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -140% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -74 Mil Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -65% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 127% Key risksAARD key risks include [1] its heavy dependence on the clinical success and regulatory approval of its lead candidates, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -64% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -97%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -140% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -74 Mil |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -65% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 127% |
| Key risksAARD key risks include [1] its heavy dependence on the clinical success and regulatory approval of its lead candidates, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD) stock has lost about 10% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Termination of Lead Candidate's Phase 3 Trials and Regulatory Setback: Aardvark Therapeutics announced in its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report on August 11, 2026, that it had terminated the Phase 3 HERO and Open-Label Extension (OLE) trials for its lead candidate, ARD-101, for the treatment of Prader-Willi Syndrome. This decision, made in June 2026, followed a full clinical hold placed by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in May 2026 due to "reversible cardiac observations" identified in a healthy volunteer study. The company stated it does not intend to resume these trials as previously designed, effectively halting the development of its most advanced program.
2. Heightened Uncertainty Due to Lack of a Clear Path Forward: The company's August 11, 2026, update indicated it was still assessing the unblinded clinical data to determine the "next steps" for the ARD-101 program. This extended period of uncertainty was compounded by the fact that Aardvark Therapeutics had previously committed in May 2026 to providing further guidance on ARD-101 and ARD-201 (another voluntarily paused program) by the end of fiscal Q2 2026, which it failed to do. The absence of a clear revised development strategy for its pipeline contributed to investor apprehension.
Show more
Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD) stock has lost about 10% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Termination of Lead Candidate's Phase 3 Trials and Regulatory Setback: Aardvark Therapeutics announced in its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report on August 11, 2026, that it had terminated the Phase 3 HERO and Open-Label Extension (OLE) trials for its lead candidate, ARD-101, for the treatment of Prader-Willi Syndrome. This decision, made in June 2026, followed a full clinical hold placed by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in May 2026 due to "reversible cardiac observations" identified in a healthy volunteer study. The company stated it does not intend to resume these trials as previously designed, effectively halting the development of its most advanced program.
2. Heightened Uncertainty Due to Lack of a Clear Path Forward: The company's August 11, 2026, update indicated it was still assessing the unblinded clinical data to determine the "next steps" for the ARD-101 program. This extended period of uncertainty was compounded by the fact that Aardvark Therapeutics had previously committed in May 2026 to providing further guidance on ARD-101 and ARD-201 (another voluntarily paused program) by the end of fiscal Q2 2026, which it failed to do. The absence of a clear revised development strategy for its pipeline contributed to investor apprehension.
3. Significant Analyst Downgrade and Price Target Reduction: Following the FDA's clinical hold on ARD-101, BofA analyst Tazeen Ahmad downgraded Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD) from "Buy" to "Underperform" and drastically cut the price target from $18 to $4. This substantial reduction in the price target by 77.8% signaled a significant loss of confidence from a major financial institution, further pressuring the stock price.
4. Initiation of Securities Class Action Lawsuit: On August 18, 2026, a securities class action lawsuit was announced against Aardvark Therapeutics. The lawsuit alleges that the company made materially false and misleading statements to investors between February 13, 2025, and May 14, 2026, regarding the safety and commercial prospects of ARD-101. The ongoing legal challenge creates additional financial and reputational risk for the company.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -8.5% change in AARD stock from 6/30/2026 to 9/30/2026 was primarily driven by a -0.1% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 9302026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.76 | 5.27 | -8.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 22 | 22 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 9/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AARD | -8.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.1% | 43.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 6.2% | -0.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 39.8% change in AARD stock from 3/31/2026 to 9/30/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 9302026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.77 | 5.27 | 39.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 22 | 22 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 9/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AARD | 39.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.6% | 39.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | 15.4% | 7.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -60.3% change in AARD stock from 9/30/2025 to 9/30/2026 was primarily driven by a -0.7% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 9302026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.29 | 5.27 | -60.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 22 | 22 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 9/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AARD | -60.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.4% | 33.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 22.6% | 15.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 9/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AARD | ||
| Market (SPY) | 84.5% | 27.2% |
| Sector (XLV) | 37.0% | 20.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AARD Return | - | - | - | - | -8% | -59% | -63% |
| Peers Return | -23% | 64% | 20% | 4% | 173% | -11% | 284% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 104% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AARD Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 36% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 53% | 47% | 43% | 52% | 38% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AARD Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -78% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -58% | -64% | -64% | -54% | -46% | -41% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: RYTM, VKTX, ALT, RLMD, HRMY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/30/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AARD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -53.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 112.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 68 days | 79 days |
In The Past
Aardvark Therapeutics's stock fell -53.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 112.9% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | AARD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -53.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 112.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 68 days | 79 days |
In The Past
Aardvark Therapeutics's stock fell -53.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 112.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD)
Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing novel small-molecule drugs that activate innate hunger-suppressing pathways for metabolic diseases. Their primary approach involves targeting Bitter Taste Receptors (TAS2Rs) in the gut, which stimulates the release of natural signaling molecules like cholecystokinin (CCK) and glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) to alleviate hunger. Their lead product candidate, ARD-101, is an oral, gut-restricted TAS2R agonist currently in a pivotal Phase 3 clinical trial for hyperphagia associated with Prader-Willi Syndrome (PWS), a rare genetic disorder. They also intend to evaluate ARD-101 in a Phase 2 trial for hyperphagia linked to acquired hypothalamic obesity (HO), another rare condition with significant unmet needs, following promising Phase 2 results in PWS patients.
Beyond ARD-101, Aardvark is developing ARD-201, a fixed-dose combination of ARD-101 and a dipeptidyl peptidase IV (DPP-4) inhibitor, aimed at the broader market of obesity and obesity-related conditions. This combination is designed to offer potential advantages over existing GLP-1 therapies, such as improved weight maintenance, better gastrointestinal tolerance, and preservation of lean body mass, with a Phase 2 clinical trial planned. Overall, Aardvark is positioned to address severe unmet needs in rare hyperphagia syndromes while also pursuing a differentiated approach in the wider and competitive obesity market.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Aardvark Therapeutics is like **Novo Nordisk or Eli Lilly for hunger, but with a gut-restricted, non-systemic approach.**
Aardvark Therapeutics is like **a next-generation Eli Lilly for obesity and hunger, but with a gut-restricted mechanism.**
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Major Products of Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD):
- ARD-101: An oral, gut-restricted small-molecule agonist targeting Bitter Taste Receptors (TAS2Rs) for hyperphagia associated with Prader-Willi Syndrome and hypothalamic obesity.
- ARD-201: A fixed-dose combination of ARD-101 and a DPP-4 inhibitor in development for the treatment of obesity and obesity-related conditions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. Based on the provided background information, the company's product candidates, ARD-101 and ARD-201, are currently in various stages of clinical trials (Phase 3 for PWS, Phase 2 for HO and obesity/obesity-related conditions).
The company explicitly states: "ARD-101 and ARD-201 will require substantial additional development time and resources before we would be able to apply for or receive marketing approvals and begin generating revenue from product sales." Furthermore, they "expect to continue to incur losses for the foreseeable future" and plan to finance their cash needs through "public or private equity or debt financings or other capital sources, including potential collaborations, licenses and other similar arrangements."
Therefore, Aardvark Therapeutics is not currently selling any products and does not have any major customers. The company is in the development phase and has not yet begun generating revenue from product sales.
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Tien Lee, MD, Chief Executive Officer, Secretary, and Chairman
Dr. Lee has 20 years of experience as a biotechnology innovator and executive, integrally involved with the founding or advancement of several biopharmaceutical companies. He has been the founder and CEO of Aardvark Therapeutics since 2017. Prior to Aardvark, Dr. Lee served as Chief Strategy Officer at NantKwest from 2014 to March 2017. He is an inventor or co-inventor of multiple biomedical and biotechnology innovations, licensed or assigned to companies including NantKwest, Simcere Pharmaceutical Group, Cellics Therapeutics, and Aardvark Therapeutics.
Nelson Sun, Chief Operating Officer & Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Sun has over 20 years of experience in financial management, business operations, and corporate strategy, including various leadership roles at private equity firms. His role expanded to include Chief Operating Officer in February 2026, in addition to his Chief Financial Officer duties. Before Aardvark, he was an Operating Partner at Dubilier & Company, where he evaluated underperforming assets and strategic acquisition opportunities, and provided executive oversight to portfolio companies on business operations, financial planning, and strategic exits.
Manasi Jaiman, MD, MPH, Chief Medical Officer
Dr. Jaiman is a global, mission-driven Chief Medical Officer and Senior Executive with 15 years of experience in clinical development, device development, regulatory filings, direct patient care, and scientific research. Most recently, she was CMO and Leadership Team member at ViaCyte, where she led clinical development strategy, partnered with the CEO & CFO on capital raising, investor relations, and business development, culminating in ViaCyte's $320M acquisition by Vertex (NASDAQ: VRTX).
Derrick Li, Chief Business Officer
Mr. Li is a seasoned biotechnology executive with over 20 years of global experience in biopharmaceutical business development, investment banking, and corporate strategy. He was appointed Chief Business Officer effective February 9, 2026. Prior to Aardvark, he served as Chief Strategy Officer at ODC Life Sciences, a Latin America-focused clinical research organization. He also held senior leadership roles, including Head of Strategy and Investor Relations at Cellular Biomedicine Group (now AbelZeta), and was a Managing Director in the Healthcare Investment Group at Robert W. Baird.
Zhenhuan Zheng, PhD, Chief Research Officer
Dr. Zheng is the Chief Research Officer of Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc. Before joining Aardvark, Dr. Zheng served as Senior Manager, Scientific Affairs of NantKwest, Inc. from April 2016 to June 2017. Previously, he was Manager of Business Development for Simcere Pharmaceutical Group from 2009 to 2012.
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Key Risks to Aardvark Therapeutics
-
Clinical Trial Success and Regulatory Approval: As a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, Aardvark Therapeutics' ability to generate revenue and sustain operations is entirely dependent on the successful development, regulatory approval, and commercialization of its product candidates, ARD-101 and ARD-201. Both compounds require substantial additional development time and resources, and there is no guarantee that ongoing or future clinical trials will demonstrate the necessary efficacy and safety, or that regulatory bodies like the FDA will grant marketing approvals.
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Dependence on Additional Capital: Aardvark Therapeutics expects to incur continued losses for the foreseeable future and anticipates needing to raise additional capital to finance its cash needs. The company plans to secure funding through public or private equity or debt financings, or other capital sources, including potential collaborations, licenses, and similar arrangements. Failure to secure sufficient additional capital could significantly impede its ability to fund ongoing clinical trials and development activities.
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Substantial Competition in the Obesity Market: Aardvark Therapeutics faces significant competition for its ARD-201 program, which is being developed for the treatment of obesity and obesity-related conditions. The market includes numerous major pharmaceutical and independent biotechnology companies such as Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Roche, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca, all of whom are developing therapeutics in this space. This intense competition could impact the potential market share, pricing power, and commercial success of ARD-201, if approved.
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The substantial and rapidly advancing competition from major pharmaceutical companies, including Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, in the market for obesity and obesity-related conditions. Aardvark Therapeutics' ARD-201 is being developed to address limitations of currently marketed GLP-1 therapies, but these established competitors are continuously innovating and launching next-generation products, posing a significant challenge to ARD-201's ability to differentiate and capture market share.AI Analysis | Feedback
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- Advancement and potential New Drug Application (NDA) filing for ARD-101 in Prader-Willi Syndrome (PWS): Aardvark Therapeutics initiated a pivotal Phase 3 clinical trial (HERO trial) for ARD-101 for hyperphagia associated with PWS in December 2024, with topline data anticipated in early 2026. The company has aligned with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on the trial protocol, which is expected to support an NDA filing. Successful completion of this trial and the subsequent NDA submission would be a significant milestone, paving the way for potential market approval and sales.
- Expansion of ARD-101 into acquired hypothalamic obesity (HO): Aardvark Therapeutics intends to evaluate ARD-101 in a Phase 2 clinical trial (HONOR trial) for hyperphagia associated with HO. This condition affects approximately 5,000-10,000 people in the United States and currently lacks approved pharmacological interventions. Progress in this trial could significantly broaden the addressable market for ARD-101.
- Development of ARD-201 for obesity and obesity-related conditions: The company's second TAS2R program, ARD-201, is a fixed-dose combination of ARD-101 and a dipeptidyl peptidase IV (DPP-4) inhibitor, aimed at treating obesity and related conditions. Aardvark Therapeutics plans to initiate a Phase 2 clinical trial (EMPOWER trial) to explore its efficacy. Targeting the large obesity market with a novel combination therapy that aims to overcome limitations of existing treatments could be a substantial long-term revenue driver.
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Outbound Investments
- Aardvark Therapeutics incorporated a wholly-owned subsidiary, Artisan Therapeutics, Inc., in Delaware in October 2024.
Peer Outperformance in Biotechnology
null| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care Distributors | 6 | 3.9% | 42.1% | 85.6% | CAH 390% · MCK 337% · COR 164% |
| Health Care Services | 20 | 17.4% | 33.7% | 5.5% | HIMS 308% · RDNT 137% · DGX 79% |
| Managed Health Care | 8 | 31.8% | -8.0% | 2.3% | OSCR 75% · HQY 32% · ELV 11% |
| Health Care Facilities | 24 | 0.8% | 7.6% | -4.7% | THC 271% · NHC 256% · ENSG 130% |
| Health Care Equipment | 50 | -5.5% | -1.3% | -16.0% | POCI 10275% · UFPT 380% · GKOS 238% |
| Pharmaceuticals | 62 | -7.6% | -2.4% | -30.4% | INDV 1132% · LQDA 1000% · ETON 922% |
| Health Care Supplies | 12 | 24.9% | -8.1% | -38.3% | LNTH 285% · HAE 46% · MMSI 19% |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services | 109 | -2.6% | -15.8% | -66.2% | SNWV 1822% · NTRA 268% · MEDP 219% |
| Health Care Technology | 21 | -32.2% | -53.6% | -77.8% | SPOK 69% · HSTM 3% · VEEV -1% |
| Biotechnology ← | 366 | -10.8% | -26.3% | -78.3% | CELZ 1235% · DNTH 1072% · ELVN 1037% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Aardvark Therapeutics Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 18.98 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.4 |
| Rev LTM | 0 |
| Op Inc LTM | -87 |
| FCF LTM | -73 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -62 |
| CFO LTM | -73 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -62 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 53.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 79.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 30.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 6.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -9.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -4.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -83.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -152.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -43.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -79.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -43.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -92.8% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|
| Discovery and development of novel therapies for the treatment of metabolic diseases | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery and development of novel therapies for the treatment of metabolic diseases | -58 | -21 | -7 |
| Total | -58 | -21 | -7 |
| $ Mil | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|
| Discovery and development of novel therapies for the treatment of metabolic diseases | 11 | 17 |
| Total | 11 | 17 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $5.27 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 02/13/2025 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -69.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $6.14 | $8.50 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | -14.2% | -38.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 156.5% | 127.4% |
| Downside Capture | 713.52 | 467.91 |
| Upside Capture | 610.81 | 287.30 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 43.3% | 33.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.30 | 3.10 | 6.13 | 4.21 | 3.24 | -0.36 |
| Up Beta | 7.51 | 2.16 | 2.24 | 1.61 | 2.01 | -0.61 |
| Down Beta | 2.17 | 5.05 | 8.75 | 5.25 | 2.63 | -0.16 |
| Up Capture | 8% | 237% | 999% | 1136% | 747% | 243% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 21 | 31 | 66 | 127 | 208 |
| Down Capture | 151% | 411% | 464% | 312% | 190% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 33 | 60 | 125 | 198 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AARD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AARD | -61.6% | 127.2% | -0.09 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 25.6% | 16.1% | 1.22 | 15.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.9% | 13.0% | 0.87 | 33.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 8.1% | 29.6% | 0.26 | 13.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 43.1% | 20.8% | 1.61 | -16.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.2% | 13.6% | -0.09 | 11.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -27.1% | 44.5% | -0.58 | 17.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AARD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AARD | -18.6% | 121.5% | 0.08 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 6.7% | 15.2% | 0.25 | 20.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 17.2% | 0.59 | 27.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.2% | 18.9% | 0.78 | 10.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.6% | 19.6% | 0.42 | -11.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.5% | 18.9% | -0.08 | 18.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.9% | 52.3% | 0.44 | 17.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AARD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AARD | -9.8% | 121.5% | 0.08 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 10.7% | 16.7% | 0.52 | 20.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 27.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.4% | 0.58 | 10.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 18.1% | 0.38 | -11.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.5% | 20.7% | 0.18 | 18.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.6% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 17.1% |
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Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/14/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/11/2026 | -8.6% | -14.5% | -30.3% |
| 5/7/2026 | -4.9% | 11.9% | -37.5% |
| 11/13/2025 | -8.7% | -13.2% | 28.2% |
| 8/13/2025 | 0.5% | -13.7% | -23.3% |
| 5/14/2025 | 4.0% | 27.2% | 22.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| # Negative | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 2.3% | 19.6% | 25.5% |
| Median Negative | -8.6% | -13.7% | -30.3% |
| Max Positive | 4.0% | 27.2% | 28.2% |
| Max Negative | -8.7% | -14.5% | -37.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/11/2026 | -8.6% | -14.5% | -30.3% |
| 5/7/2026 | -4.9% | 11.9% | -37.5% |
| 11/13/2025 | -8.7% | -13.2% | 28.2% |
| 8/13/2025 | 0.5% | -13.7% | -23.3% |
| 5/14/2025 | 4.0% | 27.2% | 22.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| # Negative | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 2.3% | 19.6% | 25.5% |
| Median Negative | -8.6% | -13.7% | -30.3% |
| Max Positive | 4.0% | 27.2% | 28.2% |
| Max Negative | -8.7% | -14.5% | -37.5% |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 9/28/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Cash Runway | Reported | |||||||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Cash Runway | Reported | 2027.5 | 0.0% | Raised | Guidance: 2027 for 2027 | |||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/13/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Cash Runway | Reported | 2027 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2027 for 2027 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 9/11/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sun, Nelson | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 9112026 | 5.18 | 62,000 | 321,179 | 183,771 | Form |
| 2 | Sun, Nelson | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 9112026 | 5.00 | 14,754 | 73,779 | 487,433 | Form |
| 3 | Sun, Nelson | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 12122025 | 14.40 | 3,000 | 43,200 | 1,562,170 | Form |
| 4 | Lee, Tien-Li | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 12122025 | 14.48 | 7,000 | 101,395 | 22,475,114 | Form |
| 5 | Lee, Tien-Li | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 9162025 | 9.66 | 10,000 | 96,624 | 14,912,732 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sun, Nelson | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 9112026 | 5.18 | 62,000 | 321,179 | 183,771 | Form |
| 2 | Sun, Nelson | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 9112026 | 5.00 | 14,754 | 73,779 | 487,433 | Form |
| 3 | Sun, Nelson | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 12122025 | 14.40 | 3,000 | 43,200 | 1,562,170 | Form |
| 4 | Lee, Tien-Li | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 12122025 | 14.48 | 7,000 | 101,395 | 22,475,114 | Form |
| 5 | Lee, Tien-Li | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 9162025 | 9.66 | 10,000 | 96,624 | 14,912,732 | Form |
| 6 | Lee, Tien-Li | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 9122025 | 8.50 | 5,000 | 42,516 | 13,038,517 | Form |
| 7 | Lee, Tien-Li | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 9122025 | 7.82 | 6,000 | 46,926 | 11,953,491 | Form |
| 8 | Lee, Tien-Li | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 9122025 | 7.91 | 9,000 | 71,212 | 12,045,863 | Form |
| 9 | Sun, Nelson | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 9102025 | 8.07 | 6,000 | 48,440 | 851,604 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 1, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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