Harmony Biosciences (HRMY)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $36.83 | Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Harmony Biosciences (HRMY)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $36.83Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.5%, FCF Yield is 19% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -25%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -109% | |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -32% | ||
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.5%, FCF Yield is 19% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -32% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -25%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -109% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HRMY Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Financial Performance: Harmony Biosciences reported robust financial results for both the second and third quarters of 2025. In the second quarter, net income more than tripled year-over-year, and the company reaffirmed its full-year 2025 net product revenue guidance. The third quarter saw earnings per share reach $1.08, significantly surpassing the forecasted $0.74, with revenue of $239.5 million exceeding projections of $220.04 million. The company also raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $845 million to $865 million.
2. Positive Clinical Trial Data for EPX-100: Preliminary open-label extension data from the Phase 3 ARGUS trial evaluating EPX-100 in Dravet syndrome indicated a significant approximate 50% reduction in median countable motor seizures per 28 days in patients with at least six months of treatment exposure. This data, which also showed a favorable safety profile, was viewed by analysts as a "de-risking event" for a key pipeline asset. Harmony Biosciences is scheduled to present further new data from this trial at the American Epilepsy Society Annual Meeting in December 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HRMY Return | - | 18% | 29% | -41% | 7% | 5% | -0% |
| Peers Return | 6% | -1% | -7% | -13% | -25% | 2% | -34% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HRMY Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 29% | 21% | 25% | 27% | 15% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HRMY Max Drawdown | - | -29% | -22% | -65% | -11% | -25% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -10% | -17% | -24% | -25% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HRMY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -68.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 217.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -30.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 482 days | 148 days |
Compare to VRTX, ACSB, AIXC, ALPS, APRI
In The Past
Harmony Biosciences's stock fell -68.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/5/2022. A -68.5% loss requires a 217.2% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HRMY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Harmony Biosciences
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 19.77 |
| Mkt Cap | 60.3 |
| Rev LTM | 826 |
| Op Inc LTM | -5 |
| FCF LTM | 297 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 229 |
| CFO LTM | 298 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 229 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 18.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 19.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 28.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 33.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 32.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 60.3 |
| P/S | 5.2 |
| P/EBIT | 14.4 |
| P/E | 17.9 |
| P/CFO | 16.1 |
| Total Yield | 7.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 17.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 4.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 2.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 17.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -10.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -10.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -67.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2212023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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