Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD)
Market Price (5/23/2026): $4.53 | Market Cap: $98.8 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD)
Market Price (5/23/2026): $4.53Market Cap: $98.8 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -92% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -109%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -148% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -75 Mil Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -75% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 111% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -92% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -109%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -148% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -75 Mil |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -75% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 111% |
Qualitative Assessment
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Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD) stock has lost about 65% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Full Clinical Hold by FDA on Lead Drug Candidate ARD-101.
The primary reason for Aardvark Therapeutics' stock decline is the full clinical hold placed by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on its investigational new drug (IND) application for ARD-101 on May 14-15, 2026. This hold effectively halted all ongoing studies for ARD-101, including the Phase 3 HERO trial for hyperphagia in Prader-Willi Syndrome and its open-label extension. This is a significant setback for the company's lead program, which had already dosed 68 patients in the HERO trial and 19 in the OLE trial as of February 27, 2026.
2. Prior Voluntary Pauses in Clinical Trials Due to Cardiac Safety Concerns.
Preceding the FDA's full clinical hold, Aardvark Therapeutics voluntarily paused enrollment and dosing in its Phase 3 HERO and open-label extension (OLE) trials for ARD-101 in February 2026. This decision was made following unexpected reversible cardiac observations identified in a separate healthy volunteer study. Additionally, in March 2026, the company voluntarily paused the development of ARD-201, a fixed-dose combination involving ARD-101, pending the safety assessment of ARD-101. These voluntary pauses signaled early safety concerns that significantly impacted investor confidence.
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1. Full Clinical Hold by FDA on Lead Drug Candidate ARD-101.
The primary reason for Aardvark Therapeutics' stock decline is the full clinical hold placed by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on its investigational new drug (IND) application for ARD-101 on May 14-15, 2026. This hold effectively halted all ongoing studies for ARD-101, including the Phase 3 HERO trial for hyperphagia in Prader-Willi Syndrome and its open-label extension. This is a significant setback for the company's lead program, which had already dosed 68 patients in the HERO trial and 19 in the OLE trial as of February 27, 2026.
2. Prior Voluntary Pauses in Clinical Trials Due to Cardiac Safety Concerns.
Preceding the FDA's full clinical hold, Aardvark Therapeutics voluntarily paused enrollment and dosing in its Phase 3 HERO and open-label extension (OLE) trials for ARD-101 in February 2026. This decision was made following unexpected reversible cardiac observations identified in a separate healthy volunteer study. Additionally, in March 2026, the company voluntarily paused the development of ARD-201, a fixed-dose combination involving ARD-101, pending the safety assessment of ARD-101. These voluntary pauses signaled early safety concerns that significantly impacted investor confidence.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -65.1% change in AARD stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -0.5% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 12.99 | 4.54 | -65.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 22 | 22 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AARD | -65.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.1% | 34.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | -2.7% | 32.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -57.5% change in AARD stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -0.6% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.69 | 4.54 | -57.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 22 | 22 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AARD | -57.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 32.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 4.8% | 27.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -59.1% change in AARD stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -2.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.11 | 4.54 | -59.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | ∞ | ∞ | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 21 | 22 | -2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AARD | -59.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 36.0% | 26.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 8.6% | 26.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AARD | ||
| Market (SPY) | 86.3% | 25.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 18.0% | 26.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AARD Return | - | - | - | - | -8% | -66% | -68% |
| Peers Return | -42% | 135% | 415% | 5% | 172% | 3% | 1961% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AARD Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 36% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 48% | 50% | 43% | 48% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AARD Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -78% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -68% | -71% | -59% | -55% | -49% | -36% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SLNO, RYTM, VKTX, ALT, RLMD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AARD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -53.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 112.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 68 days | 79 days |
In The Past
Aardvark Therapeutics's stock fell -53.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 112.9% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | AARD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -53.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 112.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 68 days | 79 days |
In The Past
Aardvark Therapeutics's stock fell -53.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 112.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD)
MB Financial, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for MB Financial Bank, N.A. that provides various financial services to small and middle market businesses, and individuals in the United States. The company's Banking segment offers commercial banking products, including working capital loans and lines of credit; accounts receivable financing; inventory and equipment financing; industrial revenue bond financing; ESOP financing; business acquisition loans; owner occupied real estate loans; asset-based loans; and financial, performance, and commercial letters of credit. Its commercial banking products also comprise deposit and treasury management products and services, such as Internet banking products, investment sweep and zero balance accounts, automated tax payments, ATM access, telephone banking, lockboxes, automated clearing house transactions, account reconciliation, controlled disbursement, information reporting, wire transfers, vault services, remote deposit capture, and checking accounts; capital markets and international banking services; and credit, deposit, and treasury management services for real estate operators and investors. In addition, this segment offers loans to equipment lessors; retail banking services; and wealth management solutions. The company's Leasing segment provides lease originations and related services. This segment's lease portfolio consists of computer systems, satellite equipment, and medical equipment, as well as general manufacturing, industrial, construction, and transportation equipment. Its Mortgage Banking segment originates and services residential mortgage loans for sale to investors. The company offers its products and services through 95 banking offices in the Chicago metropolitan area; 1 banking office in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; and 140 ATMs. MB Financial, Inc. was founded in 1911 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
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- Commercial Banking Services: Provides working capital loans, lines of credit, equipment financing, and other specialized lending products for businesses.
- Deposit and Treasury Management: Offers checking accounts, internet banking, payment processing, and cash management solutions for commercial clients.
- Retail Banking: Delivers general banking services to individual customers.
- Wealth Management: Provides financial planning and investment advisory services.
- Equipment Leasing: Originates and manages leases for a diverse range of equipment, including computer systems and industrial machinery.
- Mortgage Banking: Specializes in originating and servicing residential mortgage loans for sale to investors.
- Real Estate Financing and Services: Offers loans, deposit services, and treasury management solutions specifically for real estate operators and investors.
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Aardvark Therapeutics (AARD) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company primarily focused on developing small-molecule therapeutics to activate innate homeostatic pathways for the treatment of metabolic diseases. The company's main product candidate, ARD-101, is an oral investigational drug in Phase 3 clinical development for the treatment of hyperphagia associated with Prader-Willi Syndrome (PWS).Addressable Markets:
- ARD-101 for Prader-Willi Syndrome (PWS): The global market for Prader-Willi Syndrome treatment is estimated to be USD 0.98 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 1.59 billion by 2032, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2%. Another estimate values the global market at USD 599.81 million in 2023, expected to reach USD 1,131.94 million by 2033, with a CAGR of approximately 6.56%. In the U.S. alone, there are an estimated 10,000 to 20,000 individuals with Prader-Willi.
- ARD-201 for Obesity and obesity-related conditions: Aardvark Therapeutics is also developing ARD-201, a planned fixed-dose combination of ARD-101 with a DPP-4 inhibitor, for obesity and obesity-related conditions. Specific addressable market sizes in dollar amounts for this product were not available in the provided information.
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| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Aardvark Therapeutics Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | GEHC | GE HealthCare Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | IQV | IQVIA | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | UHS | Universal Health Services | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | ABT | Abbott Laboratories | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | ZBIO | Zenas BioPharma | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02282025 | AARD | Aardvark Therapeutics | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | -34.8% | -1.9% | -45.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 7.04 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.6 |
| Rev LTM | 0 |
| Op Inc LTM | -97 |
| FCF LTM | -72 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -107 |
| CFO LTM | -72 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -100 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 69.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 147.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | -8.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -14.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -6.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -134,653.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -130,381.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -19,372.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -99,523.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -103,114.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -99,553.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -103,132.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.6 |
| P/S | 5,026.8 |
| P/Op Inc | -7.1 |
| P/EBIT | -7.1 |
| P/E | -7.6 |
| P/CFO | -10.5 |
| Total Yield | -13.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -10.8% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -9.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -12.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -13.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 11.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 35.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -8.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -19.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -27.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -53.2% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery and development of novel therapies for the treatment of metabolic diseases | 0 | ||
| Total | 0 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery and development of novel therapies for the treatment of metabolic diseases | -21 | -7 | |
| Total | -21 | -7 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery and development of novel therapies for the treatment of metabolic diseases | 17 | ||
| Total | 17 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $4.54 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/29/2006 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -73.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $4.83 | $10.58 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -6.1% | -57.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 156.6% | 111.0% |
| Downside Capture | 538.18 | 404.40 |
| Upside Capture | 16.24 | 191.17 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 29.4% | 25.6% |
AARD Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.48 | 2.64 | 2.83 | 2.77 | 2.13 | -0.61 |
| Up Beta | 0.57 | 4.99 | 4.80 | 2.44 | 1.90 | 0.78 |
| Down Beta | 15.82 | 1.32 | 1.71 | 1.50 | 1.11 | 0.11 |
| Up Capture | 345% | -112% | -17% | 230% | 197% | 42% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 23 | 33 | 66 | 131 | 155 |
| Down Capture | -56% | 335% | 297% | 251% | 193% | 107% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 20 | 31 | 59 | 120 | 146 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AARD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AARD | -60.5% | 111.4% | -0.22 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 16.0% | 14.5% | 0.80 | 23.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.5% | 12.0% | 1.86 | 26.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 35.5% | 26.8% | 1.11 | 10.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 42.9% | 18.7% | 1.77 | -15.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 15.2% | 13.1% | 0.82 | 20.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -29.5% | 41.7% | -0.73 | 14.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AARD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AARD | -21.0% | 115.8% | -0.19 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 5.7% | 14.7% | 0.21 | 26.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.0% | 0.64 | 25.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.8% | 18.0% | 0.85 | 7.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.4% | 19.4% | 0.42 | -7.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.8% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 24.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.2% | 55.3% | 0.42 | 16.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AARD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AARD | -11.1% | 115.8% | -0.19 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.9% | 16.5% | 0.49 | 26.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.7% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 25.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.0% | 16.0% | 0.67 | 7.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 17.9% | 0.35 | -7.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 24.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.2% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 16.0% |
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Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/23/2026 | -7.3% | -10.5% | 36.0% |
| 11/13/2025 | -8.7% | -13.2% | 28.2% |
| 8/13/2025 | 0.5% | -13.7% | -23.3% |
| 3/31/2025 | 10.4% | 5.7% | 47.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| # Negative | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Median Positive | 5.5% | 5.7% | 36.0% |
| Median Negative | -8.0% | -13.2% | -23.3% |
| Max Positive | 10.4% | 5.7% | 47.9% |
| Max Negative | -8.7% | -13.7% | -23.3% |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Cash Runway | 2,028 | 0.0% | Raised | Guidance: 2,027 for 2027 | |||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/13/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Cash Runway | 2,027 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2,027 for 2027 | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sun, Nelson | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 12122025 | 14.40 | 3,000 | 43,200 | 1,562,170 | Form |
| 2 | Lee, Tien-Li | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 12122025 | 14.48 | 7,000 | 101,395 | 22,475,114 | Form |
| 3 | Lee, Tien-Li | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 9162025 | 9.66 | 10,000 | 96,624 | 14,912,732 | Form |
| 4 | Lee, Tien-Li | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 9122025 | 8.50 | 5,000 | 42,516 | 13,038,517 | Form |
| 5 | Lee, Tien-Li | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 9122025 | 7.82 | 6,000 | 46,926 | 11,953,491 | Form |
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