Tearsheet

Origin Agritech (SEED)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.53 | Market Cap: $3.5 Mil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals

Origin Agritech (SEED)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.53
Market Cap: $3.5 Mil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -91%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -159%
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is -5.3 Mil
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Agricultural Innovation. Themes include Agricultural Biotechnology, Crop Yield Optimization, and Sustainable Agriculture Practices.
  Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -68 Mil
2   Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 11504%
3   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -27%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is null
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2676%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Agricultural Innovation. Themes include Agricultural Biotechnology, Crop Yield Optimization, and Sustainable Agriculture Practices.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -91%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -159%
3 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is -5.3 Mil
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -68 Mil
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 11504%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -27%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is null
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2676%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SEED Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Origin Agritech's pioneering Hi3 gene editing technology was recognized as one of the Top 10 Major Progresses in Chinese Agricultural Science for 2025 by the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences on December 2, 2025, highlighting its innovation and commercial potential for high-yield, sustainable maize varieties.

2. The company secured new licenses for crop seed production and GMO business operations in Beijing on October 24, 2025, authorizing expanded production, processing, packaging, wholesale, and retail of corn seeds, and approving the inclusion of GMO crop seed production in its business scope.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SEED Return183%-53%-3%-68%-7%-38%-76%
Peers Return6%49%6%-22%-3%-1%27%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SEED Win Rate50%42%50%25%42%40% 
Peers Win Rate53%60%55%40%52%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SEED Max Drawdown-45%-53%-38%-74%-32%-60% 
Peers Max Drawdown-49%-6%-13%-36%-17%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CF, FMC, IPI, CTVA, NTR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSEEDS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-93.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1369.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-71.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven246.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven90 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-80.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven424.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven429 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-86.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven644.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven272 days1480 days

Compare to CF, FMC, IPI, CTVA, NTR


In The Past

Origin Agritech's stock fell -93.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/15/2021. A -93.2% loss requires a 1369.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Origin Agritech (SEED)

Better Bets than Origin Agritech (SEED)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SEED. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Origin Agritech

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SEEDCFFMCIPICTVANTRMedian
NameOrigin A.CF Indus.FMC Intrepid.Corteva Nutrien  
Mkt Price1.4279.2913.6025.8065.3060.0742.94
Mkt Cap0.012.81.70.344.329.27.2
Rev LTM-56,7363,60827817,46926,6245,172
Op Inc LTM-682,09743372,7163,5781,265
FCF LTM-1,710-409282,6692,1321,710
FCF 3Y Avg-1,574-4091,4212,4491,421
CFO LTM-2,633-318543,2194,1532,633
CFO 3Y Avg-2,60962611,9904,7891,990

Growth & Margins

SEEDCFFMCIPICTVANTRMedian
NameOrigin A.CF Indus.FMC Intrepid.Corteva Nutrien  
Rev Chg LTM32.5%12.6%-13.4%8.9%5.0%0.3%6.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-26.6%-13.5%-13.6%-6.1%0.8%-10.6%-12.0%
Rev Chg Q-100.0%21.1%-49.1%-7.5%12.6%12.3%2.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-108.8%4.5%-12.7%-1.5%1.7%2.5%0.1%
Op Mgn LTM-31.1%12.0%2.5%15.5%13.4%13.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-33.2%15.4%1.6%13.0%13.7%13.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.9%-4.8%0.9%0.9%2.0%0.9%
CFO/Rev LTM-39.1%-8.8%19.6%18.4%15.6%18.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-38.5%1.2%22.3%11.6%17.0%17.0%
FCF/Rev LTM-25.4%-11.3%10.0%15.3%8.0%10.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-22.3%-1.2%3.7%8.3%8.7%8.3%

Valuation

SEEDCFFMCIPICTVANTRMedian
NameOrigin A.CF Indus.FMC Intrepid.Corteva Nutrien  
Mkt Cap0.012.81.70.344.329.27.2
P/S-2.11.21.42.61.11.4
P/EBIT-0.06.51,913.81,515.218.48.813.6
P/E-0.010.5-7.9-2.028.615.85.2
P/CFO-5.5-13.37.314.36.96.9
Total Yield-2,671.5%11.9%-9.2%-49.0%3.7%10.1%-2.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.3%3.5%0.0%0.3%3.7%1.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-10.1%-2.1%2.3%3.2%9.0%3.2%
D/E116.80.21.10.00.10.50.4
Net D/E115.00.11.0-0.20.00.50.3

Returns

SEEDCFFMCIPICTVANTRMedian
NameOrigin A.CF Indus.FMC Intrepid.Corteva Nutrien  
1M Rtn-13.9%-5.5%-4.2%-1.8%5.5%10.2%-3.0%
3M Rtn20.3%-5.9%-62.7%-12.3%-9.6%6.8%-7.7%
6M Rtn22.4%-12.4%-66.8%-32.1%-8.0%1.5%-10.2%
12M Rtn-46.8%-13.7%-75.8%-7.0%6.4%28.4%-10.4%
3Y Rtn-86.3%-18.6%-88.6%-29.0%0.3%-14.3%-23.8%
1M Excs Rtn-13.9%-5.5%-4.1%-1.8%5.5%10.2%-3.0%
3M Excs Rtn50.7%-10.6%-68.2%-17.3%-15.2%1.1%-12.9%
6M Excs Rtn7.7%-27.2%-81.5%-46.8%-22.8%-13.2%-25.0%
12M Excs Rtn-61.0%-23.0%-89.2%-18.4%-7.3%20.7%-20.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-158.9%-91.4%-160.8%-99.9%-68.8%-88.0%-95.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment9353465392
Total9353465392


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity228,818
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-27.0%
Average Daily Volume75,383
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.04
Basic Shares Quantity2,292,354
Short % of Basic Shares10.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
331202562620256-K 3/31/2025
9302024210202520-F 9/30/2024
331202451420246-K 3/31/2024
9302023215202420-F 9/30/2023
331202350920236-K 3/31/2023
9302022214202320-F 9/30/2022
331202251820226-K 3/31/2022
9302021204202220-F 9/30/2021
331202160120216-K 3/31/2021
9302020216202120-F 9/30/2020
331202051820206-K 3/31/2020
9302019302202020-F 9/30/2019
331201971620196-K 3/31/2019
9302018603201920-F 9/30/2018
331201892120186-K 3/31/2018
9302017212201820-F 9/30/2017