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Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 117%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 127x
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 40%
Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 174%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 101%
Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -42%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Global Resource Demand & Security, and Macroeconomic Hedging & Portfolio Diversification. Themes include Precious Metals Extraction & Production, Sustainable Mining Practices, Show more.
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.5%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 117%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 40%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 101%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Global Resource Demand & Security, and Macroeconomic Hedging & Portfolio Diversification. Themes include Precious Metals Extraction & Production, Sustainable Mining Practices, Show more.
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 127x
5 Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 174%
6 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -42%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.5%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ORLA Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for Orla Mining's (ORLA) stock movement from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Significant Increase in Gold Prices

The price of gold experienced a substantial rally, climbing to a new record above $3,800 per ounce, increasing over 40% in 2025 after a 26% rise in 2024. This trend continued with gold closing at $3,447.73 on August 31, 2025, and rising to $4,199.11 per troy ounce by December 4, 2025, representing a significant positive tailwind for gold mining companies like Orla Mining. 2. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results

On November 11, 2025, Orla Mining reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025, including a record $93 million in free cash flow. The company's gold production for the quarter was 79,645 ounces, generating $275.0 million in revenue. Orla's adjusted earnings per share of $0.22 significantly exceeded forecasts by 23.25%, and revenue of $274.97 million surpassed expectations by 10.83%, leading to a notable surge in the stock price following the announcement.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ORLA Return247%-29%6%-20%70%151%795%
Peers Return41%-14%-6%-1%9%128%178%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ORLA Win Rate17%42%50%50%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate48%45%48%52%47%78% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ORLA Max Drawdown-27%-44%-37%-34%-5%-1% 
Peers Max Drawdown-27%-28%-32%-22%-21%-0% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventORLAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-57.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven135.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven880 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-41.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven71.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven280 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-29.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven42.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven62 days120 days

Compare to B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM


In The Past

Orla Mining's stock fell -57.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/5/2021. A -57.4% loss requires a 135.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Orla Mining (ORLA)

Better Bets than Orla Mining (ORLA)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ORLA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Orla Mining

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ORLABFNVFSMNEMAEMMedian
NameOrla Min.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Newmont Agnico E. 
Mkt Price13.3540.50202.459.5589.65169.1865.08
Mkt Cap4.369.539.02.998.385.054.3
Rev LTM59613,8241,5461,35221,50310,5686,057
Op Inc LTM2415,3511,0694269,3595,2233,146
FCF LTM-251--8562266,1223,645226
FCF 3Y Avg-32--161242,6362,041124
CFO LTM604-1,3104559,2245,8371,310
CFO 3Y Avg268-1,0563395,6163,8831,056

Growth & Margins

ORLABFNVFSMNEMAEMMedian
NameOrla Min.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Newmont Agnico E. 
Rev Chg LTM116.8%16.9%41.1%68.1%26.6%35.2%38.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg93.4%5.9%7.7%26.7%23.9%26.0%24.9%
Rev Chg Q211.9%16.4%76.9%38.3%20.0%41.9%40.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM42.9%3.9%15.9%5.4%4.5%9.4%7.4%
Op Mgn LTM40.3%38.7%69.1%31.5%43.5%49.4%41.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg41.7%29.4%64.1%22.0%23.9%36.0%32.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.9%3.2%0.8%2.9%4.5%3.6%3.1%
CFO/Rev LTM101.2%-84.7%33.7%42.9%55.2%55.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg60.6%-81.3%35.4%32.6%45.6%45.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-42.1%--55.4%16.7%28.5%34.5%16.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg6.5%-4.6%11.7%13.8%22.7%11.7%

Valuation

ORLABFNVFSMNEMAEMMedian
NameOrla Min.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Newmont Agnico E. 
Mkt Cap4.369.539.02.998.385.054.3
P/S5.52.627.82.04.38.04.9
P/EBIT19.66.336.75.98.916.212.5
P/E127.112.946.711.912.924.618.7
P/CFO5.4-32.86.010.014.510.0
Total Yield0.8%9.2%2.4%8.4%9.0%4.9%6.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.4%0.3%0.0%1.2%0.8%0.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.5%-0.4%6.2%3.6%3.9%3.6%
D/E0.10.00.00.10.10.00.0
Net D/E0.10.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0

Returns

ORLABFNVFSMNEMAEMMedian
NameOrla Min.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Newmont Agnico E. 
1M Rtn30.8%23.0%7.8%16.2%10.2%4.3%13.2%
3M Rtn16.7%50.0%6.8%22.8%19.6%14.0%18.2%
6M Rtn16.7%103.1%14.8%41.7%63.2%37.6%39.6%
12M Rtn174.1%134.8%66.7%92.2%119.3%99.3%109.3%
3Y Rtn243.2%155.4%43.6%144.9%102.1%250.1%150.1%
1M Excs Rtn30.8%23.1%7.8%16.2%10.2%4.4%13.2%
3M Excs Rtn13.1%44.0%1.2%20.0%14.7%8.9%13.9%
6M Excs Rtn2.0%88.4%0.1%27.0%48.5%22.8%24.9%
12M Excs Rtn166.3%122.9%53.2%86.2%103.8%89.4%96.6%
3Y Excs Rtn203.3%109.7%-22.8%103.2%49.2%204.6%106.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Gold2311924  
Silver310  
Total2341934  


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single segment   239151
Total   239151


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,238,063
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120252.6%
Average Daily Volume2,025,392
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.08
Basic Shares Quantity324,900,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
331202551220256-K 3/31/2025
12312024319202540-F 12/31/2024
9302024111320246-K 9/30/2024
630202481320246-K 6/30/2024
12312023320202440-F 12/31/2023
9302023111420236-K 9/30/2023
630202380320236-K 6/30/2023
331202351220236-K 3/31/2023
12312022320202340-F 12/31/2022
9302022111020226-K 9/30/2022
630202280920226-K 6/30/2022
331202251220226-K 3/31/2022
12312021321202240-F 12/31/2021
9302021111520216-K 9/30/2021
630202180620216-K 6/30/2021
331202151320216-K 3/31/2021