Orla Mining (ORLA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $13.6 | Market Cap: $4.4 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
Orla Mining (ORLA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $13.6Market Cap: $4.4 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 117% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 127x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 40% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 174% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 101% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Resource Demand & Security, and Macroeconomic Hedging & Portfolio Diversification. Themes include Precious Metals Extraction & Production, Sustainable Mining Practices, Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.5% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 117% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 40% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 101% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Resource Demand & Security, and Macroeconomic Hedging & Portfolio Diversification. Themes include Precious Metals Extraction & Production, Sustainable Mining Practices, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 127x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 174% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -42% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.5% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ORLA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for Orla Mining's (ORLA) stock movement from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Significant Increase in Gold Prices
The price of gold experienced a substantial rally, climbing to a new record above $3,800 per ounce, increasing over 40% in 2025 after a 26% rise in 2024. This trend continued with gold closing at $3,447.73 on August 31, 2025, and rising to $4,199.11 per troy ounce by December 4, 2025, representing a significant positive tailwind for gold mining companies like Orla Mining.
2. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results
On November 11, 2025, Orla Mining reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025, including a record $93 million in free cash flow. The company's gold production for the quarter was 79,645 ounces, generating $275.0 million in revenue. Orla's adjusted earnings per share of $0.22 significantly exceeded forecasts by 23.25%, and revenue of $274.97 million surpassed expectations by 10.83%, leading to a notable surge in the stock price following the announcement.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ORLA Return | 247% | -29% | 6% | -20% | 70% | 151% | 795% |
| Peers Return | 41% | -14% | -6% | -1% | 9% | 128% | 178% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ORLA Win Rate | 17% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 45% | 48% | 52% | 47% | 78% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ORLA Max Drawdown | -27% | -44% | -37% | -34% | -5% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -28% | -32% | -22% | -21% | -0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ORLA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -57.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 135.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 880 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -41.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 280 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -29.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 120 days |
Compare to B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM
In The Past
Orla Mining's stock fell -57.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/5/2021. A -57.4% loss requires a 135.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ORLA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Orla Mining
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 65.08 |
| Mkt Cap | 54.3 |
| Rev LTM | 6,057 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,146 |
| FCF LTM | 226 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 124 |
| CFO LTM | 1,310 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,056 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 38.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 24.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 40.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 41.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 32.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 55.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 45.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 54.3 |
| P/S | 4.9 |
| P/EBIT | 12.5 |
| P/E | 18.7 |
| P/CFO | 10.0 |
| Total Yield | 6.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 13.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 18.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 39.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 109.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 150.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 13.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 13.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 24.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 96.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 106.5% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3192025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11132024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3202024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5122023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3202023 | 40-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5122022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3212022 | 40-F 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11152021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
| 6302021 | 8062021 | 6-K 6/30/2021 |
| 3312021 | 5132021 | 6-K 3/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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