Orla Mining (ORLA)
Market Price (11/14/2025): $11.42 | Market Cap: $3.7 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
Orla Mining (ORLA)
Market Price (11/14/2025): $11.42Market Cap: $3.7 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 117% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 153x | |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 40% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 203% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 101% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -42% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Resource Demand & Security, and Macroeconomic Hedging & Portfolio Diversification. Themes include Precious Metals Extraction & Production, Sustainable Mining Practices, Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 117% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 40% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 101% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Resource Demand & Security, and Macroeconomic Hedging & Portfolio Diversification. Themes include Precious Metals Extraction & Production, Sustainable Mining Practices, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 153x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 203% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -42% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
ORLA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Orla Mining (ORLA) has seen significant stock movement between July 31, 2025, and November 14, 2025, driven by a combination of strong financial results, operational advancements, and positive market sentiment. Here are five key points explaining the approximate 29.7% stock increase:
1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results: Orla Mining reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025, exceeding analyst expectations. The company achieved an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.22, significantly higher than the forecasted $0.1785, and revenue reached $274.97 million, surpassing the anticipated $248.11 million. This strong performance led to a 7.69% surge in the stock price immediately following the announcement.
2. Record Gold Production and Sales: The company achieved record gold production of 79,645 ounces and total quarterly gold sold of 78,857 ounces in Q3 2025. This was significantly bolstered by the Musselwhite Mine, which contributed its second full quarter of production, leading to a quarterly record for the company.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ORLA Return | 247% | -29% | 6% | -20% | 70% | 118% | 679% |
| Peers Return | 38% | -9% | -6% | -3% | -0% | 90% | 113% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 109% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ORLA Win Rate | 17% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 37% | 35% | 38% | 40% | 37% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ORLA Max Drawdown | -27% | -44% | -37% | -34% | -5% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -22% | -26% | -19% | -17% | -0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: B, FNV, FSM, NAMM, NEM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/13/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ORLA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -57.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 135.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 880 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -41.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 280 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -29.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 120 days |
Compare to B, FNV, FSM, NAMM, NEM
In The Past
Orla Mining's stock fell -57.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/5/2021. A -57.4% loss requires a 135.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ORLA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.6% | 3.6% | -2.5% |
| 10312025 | SLGN | Silgan | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.3% | -0.3% | -1.5% |
| 10242025 | TGLS | Tecnoglass | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -25.2% | -25.2% | -25.2% |
| 10242025 | NEM | Newmont | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 7.6% | 7.6% | -5.7% |
| 10242025 | RGLD | Royal Gold | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 3.8% | 3.8% | -7.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.6% | 3.6% | -2.5% |
| 10312025 | SLGN | Silgan | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.3% | -0.3% | -1.5% |
| 10242025 | TGLS | Tecnoglass | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -25.2% | -25.2% | -25.2% |
| 10242025 | NEM | Newmont | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 7.6% | 7.6% | -5.7% |
| 10242025 | RGLD | Royal Gold | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 3.8% | 3.8% | -7.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Orla Mining
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 24.26 |
| Mkt Cap | 38.0 |
| Rev LTM | 1,546 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,069 |
| FCF LTM | -12 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 54 |
| CFO LTM | 957 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 698 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 41.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 23.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 38.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 40.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 29.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 63.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 48.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -12.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 38.0 |
| P/S | 4.6 |
| P/EBIT | 11.0 |
| P/E | 22.6 |
| P/CFO | 8.6 |
| Total Yield | 5.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 19.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 54.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 121.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 136.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -9.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 14.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 40.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 101.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 75.2% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3192025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11132024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3202024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5122023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3202023 | 40-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5122022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3212022 | 40-F 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11152021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
| 6302021 | 8062021 | 6-K 6/30/2021 |
| 3312021 | 5132021 | 6-K 3/31/2021 |
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