Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 117%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 153x
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 40%
  Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 203%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 101%
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -42%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Global Resource Demand & Security, and Macroeconomic Hedging & Portfolio Diversification. Themes include Precious Metals Extraction & Production, Sustainable Mining Practices, Show more.
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 117%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 40%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 101%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Global Resource Demand & Security, and Macroeconomic Hedging & Portfolio Diversification. Themes include Precious Metals Extraction & Production, Sustainable Mining Practices, Show more.
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 153x
5 Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 203%
6 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -42%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

ORLA Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Orla Mining (ORLA) has seen significant stock movement between July 31, 2025, and November 14, 2025, driven by a combination of strong financial results, operational advancements, and positive market sentiment. Here are five key points explaining the approximate 29.7% stock increase:

1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results: Orla Mining reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025, exceeding analyst expectations. The company achieved an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.22, significantly higher than the forecasted $0.1785, and revenue reached $274.97 million, surpassing the anticipated $248.11 million. This strong performance led to a 7.69% surge in the stock price immediately following the announcement.

2. Record Gold Production and Sales: The company achieved record gold production of 79,645 ounces and total quarterly gold sold of 78,857 ounces in Q3 2025. This was significantly bolstered by the Musselwhite Mine, which contributed its second full quarter of production, leading to a quarterly record for the company.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ORLA Return247%-29%6%-20%70%118%679%
Peers Return38%-9%-6%-3%-0%90%113%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%15%109%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ORLA Win Rate17%42%50%50%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate37%35%38%40%37%65% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ORLA Max Drawdown-27%-44%-37%-34%-5%-1% 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-22%-26%-19%-17%-0% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: B, FNV, FSM, NAMM, NEM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/13/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventORLAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-57.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven135.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven880 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-41.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven71.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven280 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-29.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven42.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven62 days120 days

Compare to B, FNV, FSM, NAMM, NEM


In The Past

Orla Mining's stock fell -57.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/5/2021. A -57.4% loss requires a 135.0% gain to breakeven.

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About Orla Mining (ORLA)

Better Bets than Orla Mining (ORLA)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ORLA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.6%3.6%-2.5%
SLGN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025SLGNSilganDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.3%-0.3%-1.5%
TGLS_10242025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10242025TGLSTecnoglassDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-25.2%-25.2%-25.2%
NEM_10242025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10242025NEMNewmontQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
7.6%7.6%-5.7%
RGLD_10242025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10242025RGLDRoyal GoldQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
3.8%3.8%-7.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.6%3.6%-2.5%
SLGN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025SLGNSilganDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.3%-0.3%-1.5%
TGLS_10242025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10242025TGLSTecnoglassDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-25.2%-25.2%-25.2%
NEM_10242025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10242025NEMNewmontQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
7.6%7.6%-5.7%
RGLD_10242025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10242025RGLDRoyal GoldQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
3.8%3.8%-7.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Orla Mining

Financials

ORLABFNVFSMNAMMNEMMedian
NameOrla Min.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Namib Mi.Newmont  
Mkt Price12.0936.42197.058.401.3489.7224.26
Mkt Cap3.962.538.02.6-98.438.0
Rev LTM59613,8241,5461,352-21,5031,546
Op Inc LTM2415,3511,069426-9,3591,069
FCF LTM-251--856226-6,122-12
FCF 3Y Avg-32--16124-2,63654
CFO LTM604-1,310455-9,224957
CFO 3Y Avg268-1,056339-5,616698

Growth & Margins

ORLABFNVFSMNAMMNEMMedian
NameOrla Min.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Namib Mi.Newmont  
Rev Chg LTM116.8%16.9%41.1%68.1%-26.6%41.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg93.4%5.9%7.7%26.7%-23.9%23.9%
Rev Chg Q211.9%16.4%76.9%38.3%-20.0%38.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM42.9%3.9%15.9%5.4%-4.5%5.4%
Op Mgn LTM40.3%38.7%69.1%31.5%-43.5%40.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg41.7%29.4%64.1%22.0%-23.9%29.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.9%3.2%0.8%2.9%-4.5%2.9%
CFO/Rev LTM101.2%-84.7%33.7%-42.9%63.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg60.6%-81.3%35.4%-32.6%48.0%
FCF/Rev LTM-42.1%--55.4%16.7%-28.5%-12.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg6.5%-4.6%11.7%-13.8%9.1%

Valuation

ORLABFNVFSMNAMMNEMMedian
NameOrla Min.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Namib Mi.Newmont  
Mkt Cap3.962.538.02.6-98.438.0
P/S6.64.524.61.9-4.64.6
P/EBIT23.711.032.45.5-9.411.0
P/E153.422.641.311.2-13.722.6
P/CFO6.5-29.05.7-10.78.6
Total Yield0.7%5.3%2.8%8.9%-8.4%5.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.8%0.3%0.0%-1.1%0.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.5%-0.4%6.2%-3.6%2.6%
D/E0.10.00.00.1-0.10.1
Net D/E0.00.0-0.0-0.1--0.0-0.0

Returns

ORLABFNVFSMNAMMNEMMedian
NameOrla Min.Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Namib Mi.Newmont  
1M Rtn-7.9%9.4%-5.7%-8.4%-57.9%-0.9%-6.8%
3M Rtn22.6%55.1%11.3%15.7%-54.3%31.5%19.2%
6M Rtn33.1%105.1%24.4%54.4%-81.5%54.4%
12M Rtn203.0%121.8%75.7%85.0%-122.0%121.8%
3Y Rtn234.9%142.2%44.4%136.6%-112.1%136.6%
1M Excs Rtn-12.2%4.0%-6.9%-13.9%-54.5%-5.1%-9.5%
3M Excs Rtn17.9%47.5%6.8%10.6%-57.3%25.4%14.3%
6M Excs Rtn19.3%91.3%10.6%40.5%-67.6%40.5%
12M Excs Rtn157.6%101.8%56.6%74.4%-103.9%101.8%
3Y Excs Rtn158.0%75.2%-24.2%87.3%-48.4%75.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Gold2311924  
Silver310  
Total2341934  


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single segment   239151
Total   239151


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,080,478
Short Interest: % Change Since 101520252.4%
Average Daily Volume2,249,927
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.70
Basic Shares Quantity324,900,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.9%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
331202551220256-K 3/31/2025
12312024319202540-F 12/31/2024
9302024111320246-K 9/30/2024
630202481320246-K 6/30/2024
12312023320202440-F 12/31/2023
9302023111420236-K 9/30/2023
630202380320236-K 6/30/2023
331202351220236-K 3/31/2023
12312022320202340-F 12/31/2022
9302022111020226-K 9/30/2022
630202280920226-K 6/30/2022
331202251220226-K 3/31/2022
12312021321202240-F 12/31/2021
9302021111520216-K 9/30/2021
630202180620216-K 6/30/2021
331202151320216-K 3/31/2021

Insider Activity

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