Tearsheet

Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $3.915 | Market Cap: $2.3 Bil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers

Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $3.915
Market Cap: $2.3 Bil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.7%, Dividend Yield is 8.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.6%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -50%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 158%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Sustainable Consumption, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Sustainable Packaging Materials, Show more.
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 149x
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.7%, Dividend Yield is 8.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.6%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Sustainable Consumption, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Sustainable Packaging Materials, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -50%
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 158%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 149x

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AMBP Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The stock of Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) experienced movement between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, influenced by several key events.

1. Ardagh Metal Packaging warrants faced NYSE delisting. On November 25, 2025, the NYSE initiated delisting proceedings for Ardagh Metal Packaging's warrants (AMBP.WS) due to "abnormally low selling price levels." Trading of these warrants was halted on November 25, 2025, and the company did not contest the decision. The ordinary shares (AMBP) were unaffected and continued to trade.

2. Ardagh Group announced Q3 2025 results. In late November 2025, Ardagh Group, the parent company, reported higher revenue for the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, reaching $2.5 billion, up from $2.39 billion in the same period of 2024. This growth was driven by increased metal packaging operations in Europe and the Americas. However, the net loss deepened due to large exceptional charges.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AMBP Return--13%-41%-14%-12%44%-44%
Peers Return16%14%1%-1%-5%8%35%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AMBP Win Rate67%33%42%42%33%60% 
Peers Win Rate53%58%45%42%47%44% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AMBP Max Drawdown--17%-54%-42%-16%-17% 
Peers Max Drawdown-36%-8%-22%-17%-15%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SLGN, GEF, OI, TRS, BALL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAMBPS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-78.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven372.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-3.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven3.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven30 days148 days

Compare to SLGN, GEF, OI, TRS, BALL


In The Past

Ardagh Metal Packaging's stock fell -78.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/13/2021. A -78.8% loss requires a 372.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP)

Better Bets than Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AMBP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Ardagh Metal Packaging

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AMBPSLGNGEFOITRSBALLMedian
NameArdagh M.Silgan Greif O-I GlassTriMas Ball  
Mkt Price3.9239.2666.1913.9634.1848.7836.72
Mkt Cap2.34.23.82.11.413.23.1
Rev LTM5,3466,4265,9866,4551,01412,6946,206
Op Inc LTM258640534577691,362555
FCF LTM-65335694414069
FCF 3Y Avg-2433361530111111
CFO LTM-372490516103551490
CFO 3Y Avg-50253262885851532

Growth & Margins

AMBPSLGNGEFOITRSBALLMedian
NameArdagh M.Silgan Greif O-I GlassTriMas Ball  
Rev Chg LTM10.3%11.1%18.5%-2.8%11.8%7.4%10.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg4.5%0.4%-1.3%-1.3%4.6%-4.4%-0.4%
Rev Chg Q8.8%15.1%-2.6%-1.5%17.4%9.6%9.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.2%4.3%-0.5%-0.4%4.1%2.4%2.3%
Op Mgn LTM4.8%10.0%8.9%8.9%6.8%10.7%8.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.4%10.1%9.5%9.3%6.5%9.8%9.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.0%-0.1%0.2%1.5%0.7%-0.1%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM-5.8%8.2%8.0%10.2%4.3%8.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-8.4%9.7%9.2%9.0%7.6%9.0%
FCF/Rev LTM-1.0%5.6%1.1%4.4%1.1%1.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-4.1%6.1%0.2%3.2%1.0%3.2%

Valuation

AMBPSLGNGEFOITRSBALLMedian
NameArdagh M.Silgan Greif O-I GlassTriMas Ball  
Mkt Cap2.34.23.82.11.413.23.1
P/S0.40.70.60.31.51.10.7
P/EBIT10.57.88.46.720.611.49.4
P/E149.114.519.9-13.735.620.120.0
P/CFO-12.37.73.915.224.812.3
Total Yield8.7%8.7%8.3%-7.3%3.2%6.6%7.5%
Dividend Yield8.1%1.9%3.3%0.0%0.4%1.6%1.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-4.5%8.9%0.2%2.4%0.9%2.4%
D/E1.71.10.82.60.30.50.9
Net D/E1.61.00.72.30.30.50.8

Returns

AMBPSLGNGEFOITRSBALLMedian
NameArdagh M.Silgan Greif O-I GlassTriMas Ball  
1M Rtn16.0%1.6%16.6%18.7%-5.4%4.0%10.0%
3M Rtn14.9%-11.5%9.6%11.9%-11.3%-2.3%3.6%
6M Rtn5.9%-25.9%22.3%7.1%33.1%-7.7%6.5%
12M Rtn22.0%-29.6%-3.7%11.3%29.4%-20.3%3.8%
3Y Rtn17.3%-24.0%2.9%-17.1%24.3%-8.8%-2.9%
1M Excs Rtn16.0%1.6%16.7%18.7%-5.3%4.0%10.0%
3M Excs Rtn8.3%-17.4%3.5%5.2%-18.2%-8.2%-2.4%
6M Excs Rtn-8.8%-40.6%7.6%-7.7%18.4%-22.4%-8.2%
12M Excs Rtn9.8%-43.9%-17.0%-2.8%16.6%-33.6%-9.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-50.1%-93.5%-70.6%-86.7%-41.6%-80.2%-75.4%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,988,356
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-34.2%
Average Daily Volume1,268,193
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.14
Basic Shares Quantity597,700,000
Short % of Basic Shares0.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
9302025102320256-K 9/30/2025
630202572420256-K 6/30/2025
331202542420256-K 3/31/2025
12312024304202520-F 12/31/2024
9302024102420246-K 9/30/2024
630202472520246-K 6/30/2024
331202442520246-K 3/31/2024
12312023229202420-F 12/31/2023
9302023102620236-K 9/30/2023
630202372720236-K 6/30/2023
331202342720236-K 3/31/2023
12312022303202320-F 12/31/2022
9302022102720226-K 9/30/2022
630202272820226-K 6/30/2022
331202242820226-K 3/31/2022
12312021304202220-F 12/31/2021