Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $3.915 | Market Cap: $2.3 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers
Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $3.915Market Cap: $2.3 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.7%, Dividend Yield is 8.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.6% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -50% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 158% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Sustainable Consumption, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Sustainable Packaging Materials, Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 149x |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.7%, Dividend Yield is 8.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.6% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Sustainable Consumption, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Sustainable Packaging Materials, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -50% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 158% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 149x |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AMBP Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) experienced movement between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, influenced by several key events.
1. Ardagh Metal Packaging warrants faced NYSE delisting. On November 25, 2025, the NYSE initiated delisting proceedings for Ardagh Metal Packaging's warrants (AMBP.WS) due to "abnormally low selling price levels." Trading of these warrants was halted on November 25, 2025, and the company did not contest the decision. The ordinary shares (AMBP) were unaffected and continued to trade.
2. Ardagh Group announced Q3 2025 results. In late November 2025, Ardagh Group, the parent company, reported higher revenue for the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, reaching $2.5 billion, up from $2.39 billion in the same period of 2024. This growth was driven by increased metal packaging operations in Europe and the Americas. However, the net loss deepened due to large exceptional charges.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AMBP Return | - | -13% | -41% | -14% | -12% | 44% | -44% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 14% | 1% | -1% | -5% | 8% | 35% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AMBP Win Rate | 67% | 33% | 42% | 42% | 33% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 58% | 45% | 42% | 47% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AMBP Max Drawdown | - | -17% | -54% | -42% | -16% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -36% | -8% | -22% | -17% | -15% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SLGN, GEF, OI, TRS, BALL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AMBP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -78.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 372.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -3.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 3.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 30 days | 148 days |
Compare to SLGN, GEF, OI, TRS, BALL
In The Past
Ardagh Metal Packaging's stock fell -78.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/13/2021. A -78.8% loss requires a 372.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AMBP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Ardagh Metal Packaging
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 36.72 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.1 |
| Rev LTM | 6,206 |
| Op Inc LTM | 555 |
| FCF LTM | 69 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 111 |
| CFO LTM | 490 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 532 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.1 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/EBIT | 9.4 |
| P/E | 20.0 |
| P/CFO | 12.3 |
| Total Yield | 7.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| D/E | 0.9 |
| Net D/E | 0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 6.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 3.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | -2.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 10.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -2.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -8.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -9.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -75.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3042025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3032023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3042022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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