New Gold (NGD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $7.73 | Market Cap: $6.1 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
New Gold (NGD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $7.73Market Cap: $6.1 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 170% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 36% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 55% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, Water Infrastructure, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 36% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 55% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, Water Infrastructure, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more. |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 170% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NGD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for the movement of New Gold (NGD) stock between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:
1. Coeur Mining Acquisition Announcement
On November 3, 2025, Coeur Mining Inc. announced a definitive agreement to acquire New Gold in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately US$7 billion. This deal offered New Gold shareholders a 16% premium over the company's closing price on October 31, 2025, and is expected to create a new, prominent North American precious metals producer.
2. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results
New Gold reported robust third quarter 2025 operational and financial results on October 28, 2025, which included record production and free cash flow, largely driven by its Rainy River mine. The company surpassed analyst expectations for earnings per share and revenue, indicating strong underlying performance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NGD Return | 149% | -32% | -35% | 49% | 70% | 224% | 812% |
| Peers Return | 41% | -14% | -6% | -1% | 9% | 128% | 178% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NGD Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 58% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 45% | 48% | 52% | 47% | 78% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NGD Max Drawdown | -48% | -53% | -59% | -14% | -25% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -28% | -32% | -22% | -21% | -0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NGD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -73.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 279.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 673 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -55.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 126.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 67 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -85.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 579.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2197 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -92.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1164.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 729 days | 1480 days |
Compare to B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM
In The Past
New Gold's stock fell -73.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2021. A -73.7% loss requires a 279.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NGD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for New Gold
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 65.08 |
| Mkt Cap | 54.3 |
| Rev LTM | 6,057 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,146 |
| FCF LTM | 226 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 124 |
| CFO LTM | 1,310 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,056 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 38.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 24.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 40.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 41.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 54.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 43.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 54.3 |
| P/S | 4.4 |
| P/EBIT | 12.5 |
| P/E | 17.9 |
| P/CFO | 10.0 |
| Total Yield | 6.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 9.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 21.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 52.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 109.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 150.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 9.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 17.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 37.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 96.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 106.5% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainy River | 505 | 359 | |||
| New Afton | 281 | 272 | |||
| Other | 0 | ||||
| Total | 786 | 631 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainy River | 54 | 5 | |||
| New Afton | 39 | 8 | |||
| Other | -31 | ||||
| Corporate | -22 | ||||
| Total | 62 | -8 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Afton | 1,101 | 980 | 902 | 750 | 648 |
| Rainy River | 1,015 | 1,067 | 1,077 | 1,090 | 1,078 |
| Other | 170 | 196 | 498 | 410 | 432 |
| Total | 2,286 | 2,244 | 2,477 | 2,250 | 2,158 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7282025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2242025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10252023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 40-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3312022 | 40-F 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |