Green Plains (GPRE)
Market Price (9/13/2026): $14.76 | Market Cap: $1.0 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Commodity Chemicals
Green Plains (GPRE)
Market Price (9/13/2026): $14.76Market Cap: $1.0 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Commodity Chemicals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.9%, FCF Yield is 12% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Carbon Capture & Storage, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -34%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -124% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -20%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -19% Key risksGPRE key risks include [1] its substantial debt load and a history of unprofitability in its core business, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.9%, FCF Yield is 12% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Carbon Capture & Storage, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -34%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -124% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -20%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -19% |
| Key risksGPRE key risks include [1] its substantial debt load and a history of unprofitability in its core business, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Green Plains (GPRE) stock has lost about 5% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fiscal Q2 2026 Revenue Miss and Ethanol Volume Decline.Green Plains reported revenue of $446.22 million for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), falling short of analyst estimates of $542.38 million by 10.3%. This revenue also represented a decline from $552.8 million in fiscal Q2 2025, partly attributed to lower ethanol volumes following the sale of the Obion, Tennessee plant. Despite a significant beat on EPS, the substantial revenue shortfall likely raised concerns among investors regarding underlying demand or operational scale.
2. Uncertainty Regarding Monetization of Section 45Z Tax Credits.While Green Plains recorded $58.7 million in Section 45Z production tax credits, net of discounts and costs, which significantly boosted its fiscal Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA to $93.3 million, the company explicitly stated it had not yet monetized the 2026 tax credits. Management indicated a "patient approach in partner negotiations" for these credits. This ongoing uncertainty about the timing and terms of monetizing a crucial component of its recent profitability likely created investor apprehension.
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Green Plains (GPRE) stock has lost about 5% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fiscal Q2 2026 Revenue Miss and Ethanol Volume Decline.Green Plains reported revenue of $446.22 million for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), falling short of analyst estimates of $542.38 million by 10.3%. This revenue also represented a decline from $552.8 million in fiscal Q2 2025, partly attributed to lower ethanol volumes following the sale of the Obion, Tennessee plant. Despite a significant beat on EPS, the substantial revenue shortfall likely raised concerns among investors regarding underlying demand or operational scale.
2. Uncertainty Regarding Monetization of Section 45Z Tax Credits.While Green Plains recorded $58.7 million in Section 45Z production tax credits, net of discounts and costs, which significantly boosted its fiscal Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA to $93.3 million, the company explicitly stated it had not yet monetized the 2026 tax credits. Management indicated a "patient approach in partner negotiations" for these credits. This ongoing uncertainty about the timing and terms of monetizing a crucial component of its recent profitability likely created investor apprehension.
3. Analyst Downgrades and Conservative Future Earnings Outlook.Following the fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report, Zacks Research downgraded Green Plains from a "hold" rating to a "strong sell" rating on August 6, 2026. While some analysts maintained "neutral" or "market perform" ratings, the consensus 12-month price target remained around $15.43 to $17.71, close to or only slightly above the stock's trading levels during the period. Furthermore, Green Plains' earnings are expected to decrease by 18.63% in the next year, from $2.04 to $1.66 per share, suggesting a more conservative outlook for future profitability.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -4.9% change in GPRE stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -5.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 15.67 | 14.90 | -4.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,936 | 1,829 | -5.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 69 | 69 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -4.9% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GPRE | -4.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.0% | -1.3% |
| Sector (XLB) | -0.4% | 5.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.5% change in GPRE stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 23.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.73 | 14.90 | 8.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,092 | 1,829 | -12.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.5 | 0.6 | 23.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 70 | 69 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.5% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GPRE | 8.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.7% | -9.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | -4.2% | 0.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 34.1% change in GPRE stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 82.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.11 | 14.90 | 34.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,397 | 1,829 | -23.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 0.6 | 82.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 66 | 69 | -3.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 34.1% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GPRE | 34.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.5% | 10.7% |
| Sector (XLB) | 12.0% | 18.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -52.0% change in GPRE stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -48.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 31.04 | 14.90 | -52.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,560 | 1,829 | -48.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.5 | 0.6 | 9.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 59 | 69 | -14.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -52.0% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GPRE | -52.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.7% | 24.1% |
| Sector (XLB) | 29.7% | 30.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GPRE Return | 164% | -12% | -17% | -62% | 3% | 57% | 16% |
| Peers Return | 32% | 13% | 19% | -22% | 46% | 60% | 219% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GPRE Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 42% | 25% | 50% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 58% | 55% | 35% | 63% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GPRE Max Drawdown | -24% | -33% | -37% | -65% | -68% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -40% | -32% | -37% | -38% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ADM, VLO, REX, ANDE, ALTO.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/11/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GPRE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -49.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 99.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -13.0% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.0% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 548 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -18.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.2% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 127 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 100 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -70.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 239.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 142 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -32.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 745 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Green Plains's stock fell -49.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 99.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | GPRE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -49.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 99.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 100 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -70.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 239.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 142 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -32.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 745 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -24.5% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.5% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1331 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -41.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.0% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 152 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -70.4% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 237.7% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2094 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -23.6% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 112 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -39.3% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.7% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1036 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -91.4% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1060.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 301 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Green Plains's stock fell -49.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 99.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Green Plains (GPRE)
Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) Business Overview
Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) is primarily engaged in the production, marketing, and distribution of ethanol across the United States and internationally. Its core ethanol production segment transforms corn into fuel ethanol, a key additive in gasoline, and also yields valuable co-products. These co-products include industrial-grade alcohol, distiller grains (often used in animal feed), ultra-high protein ingredients, and corn oil, diversifying the company's offerings beyond just fuel. The primary customers for its ethanol are energy companies and blenders, while co-products serve agricultural and industrial markets.
In addition to ethanol production, Green Plains operates an agribusiness and energy services segment crucial to its integrated operations. This segment focuses on grain procurement, handling, and storage, both to supply its ethanol facilities and to offer services directly to grain producers. It also functions as a commodity marketing business, buying, selling, and distributing various commodities, including ethanol, distiller grains, corn oil, natural gas, and other grains, catering to a broad range of commodity markets and industrial buyers.
Furthermore, GPRE's partnership segment provides essential fuel storage and transportation services. Leveraging a significant infrastructure of ethanol storage facilities, fuel terminal facilities, and a large fleet of leased railcars, the company ensures efficient movement and storage of its products and offers these logistical services to third parties. This integrated approach positions Green Plains as a comprehensive player in the agricultural and renewable energy sectors, serving both producers and consumers in the ethanol, grain, and commodity markets.
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Green Plains is like Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) for the ethanol and biofuel industry.
It's also somewhat like a Valero Energy, but processes corn into renewable ethanol fuel instead of crude oil.
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- Ethanol: A biofuel produced and sold, including industrial-grade alcohol.
- Distiller Grains: A co-product of ethanol production, primarily used as animal feed.
- Ultra-High Protein: A high-value co-product derived from corn processing, suitable for various feed applications.
- Corn Oil: A co-product of ethanol production extracted from corn, used in food and industrial applications.
- Grain Procurement, Handling, and Storage Services: Services related to sourcing, managing, and storing agricultural grains for producers and for commodity marketing.
- Commodity Marketing Services: Business of buying, selling, and distributing various commodities including ethanol, its co-products, grain, and natural gas.
- Fuel Storage and Transportation Services: Services providing infrastructure for storing and moving fuel products through facilities and railcars.
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Chris Osowski, Chief Executive Officer
Chris Osowski was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Green Plains in August 2025. He joined the company in January 2022 as Executive Vice President, Operations & Technology. Mr. Osowski brings over 20 years of global leadership experience in the chemical, agribusiness, and renewable energy sectors, where he is recognized for driving operational transformation, innovation, and sustainable growth. Before joining Green Plains, he was Vice President, Global Technology at ADM, where he led the development of five-year strategic capital plans. He also held leadership positions at POET, Renewable Energy Group, and Tate & Lyle, as well as roles in Europe and Asia.
Ann Reis, Chief Financial Officer
Ann Reis was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Green Plains in January 2026. She is responsible for overseeing the company's financial strategy, accounting, and operations. Ms. Reis has over 20 years of experience in finance and operations, primarily within the agribusiness and energy sectors. Prior to Green Plains, she served as CFO and Chief Accounting Officer at Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy (SIRE). Her background also includes leadership roles at ConAgra Foods and Lincoln Financial Group.
Jamie Herbert, Chief Human Resources Officer
Jamie Herbert joined Green Plains as Chief Human Resources Officer in October 2022. In this role, he is responsible for developing cross-functional leadership, talent management, and organizational development, and leading the company's culture transformation. Previously, Mr. Herbert served as Vice President of Finance and Operations for Capstone IT from 2018 to 2022. He also provided advisory services to healthcare entities on strategy, growth, organizational agility, and accountability structures.
Ryan Loneman, General Counsel & Secretary
Ryan Loneman was appointed General Counsel and Secretary of Green Plains in January 2026. He leads the company's legal function and advises senior leadership on corporate governance, strategic transactions, and regulatory matters. Prior to joining Green Plains, Mr. Loneman served as Vice President – Legal at Lindsay Corporation. He also held the position of Vice President and General Counsel at Signal Security, an international security services franchisor, and practiced law with Kirkland & Ellis LLP.
Imre Havasi, Senior Vice President – Head of Trading and Commercial Operations
Imre Havasi has served as Senior Vice President – Head of Trading and Commercial Operations since February 2025, overseeing all commercial activities including sales, trading, and distribution. He initially joined Green Plains in May 2023 as Senior Vice President – Commercial Operations, where he developed and led the Ultra-High Protein business. Before his tenure at Green Plains, Mr. Havasi worked for 30 years at Cargill Incorporated, holding various leadership positions in their Food and Feed businesses, including Global Risk Management and Sourcing Director, Cargill Animal Nutrition and Health, and Managing Director of Cargill Animal Nutrition India.
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The key risks to Green Plains' business include:
- Commodity Price Volatility and Crush Margins: Green Plains' profitability is highly sensitive to the fluctuations in commodity prices, specifically the spread between the cost of corn and natural gas (inputs) and the selling prices of its products such as ethanol, distillers grains, ultra-high protein, and renewable corn oil. Volatility in these prices, driven by factors like weather, global supply and demand, and geopolitical issues, can significantly impact the company's consolidated ethanol crush margin, leading to widening losses and deteriorated financial performance.
- Regulatory and Policy Changes: The renewable fuels industry, including ethanol production, is heavily influenced by governmental policies and regulations. Changes to federal and state policies, such as those related to the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) or tax credits for carbon capture (e.g., Section 45Z and 45Q), could adversely affect Green Plains' ability to access incentives, monetize carbon credits, and implement its strategic initiatives.
- Declining Demand for Ethanol and Competition: The rapid expansion of electric vehicles (EVs) and potential future bans on internal combustion engines pose a long-term emerging risk by reducing demand for ethanol as a transportation fuel. Additionally, Green Plains operates in a fragmented and competitive ethanol production industry, facing competition from domestic and international producers who may have lower cost structures, which could impact its market share and profitability.
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Accelerated global transition to electric vehicles (EVs) and other non-liquid fuel transportation methods.
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Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) operates in several addressable markets related to its core products.
Ethanol
The global ethanol market size was valued at approximately USD 114.98 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach around USD 199.40 billion by 2035, exhibiting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.66% from 2026 to 2035. The North American ethanol market, a significant region for Green Plains, was valued at USD 48.70 billion in 2023. More specifically, the U.S. ethanol market was recorded at USD 34.16 billion in 2023 and is predicted to be worth approximately USD 61.57 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 5.5% from 2024 to 2034. Another source estimates the U.S. ethanol market size at USD 32.76 billion in 2025, expected to reach USD 60.66 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 9.20% from 2025 to 2032. The U.S. industrial ethanol market size was estimated at USD 32.93 billion in 2019 and is projected to reach USD 44.2 billion by 2025.
Distillers Grains
The global distillers grain market was valued at USD 17.42 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow from USD 18.81 billion in 2026 to USD 34.72 billion by 2034, demonstrating a CAGR of 7.96% during this period. The market for Distillers Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS), a key product from ethanol production, is expected to be valued at US$15.2 billion globally in 2026 and is projected to reach US$21.7 billion by 2033. North America is a dominant region in the distillers grains market, commanding approximately 45% of the total DDGS market share in 2026.
Ultra-High Protein (Hydrolyzed Corn Protein)
The global hydrolyzed corn protein market size was calculated at USD 4.45 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow steadily from USD 4.70 billion in 2025 to reach nearly USD 7.67 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 5.6% during the forecast period. Another report indicates the global market for hydrolyzed corn protein was valued at USD 3.64 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 6.47 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 6.61%. The North American hydrolyzed corn protein market is estimated to record a market size of about USD 1.6 billion, expanding at a 4.6% CAGR from 2024 to 2032. The estimated annual U.S. production capacity for hydrolyzed corn protein is 178,000 metric tons.
Corn Oil
The global corn oil market size was valued at USD 6.94 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow from USD 7.42 billion in 2026 to USD 13.94 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 8.19%. North America dominated the corn oil market with a 52.57% market share in 2025. The corn oil market size in the U.S. is projected to reach an estimated value of USD 3.67 billion by 2032. Another source indicates that North America led the global corn oil market in 2024, commanding a 45.3% share valued at approximately USD 2.7 billion.
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Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) is poised for significant revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by its strategic transformation into a diversified biorefining platform focused on high-value products and low-carbon solutions. Key drivers include the expansion of its ultra-high protein and renewable corn oil production, the commercialization of its Clean Sugar Technology, participation in the Sustainable Aviation Fuel market, and the monetization of carbon capture and sequestration initiatives.
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Green Plains:
- Expansion of Ultra-High Protein (UHP) Production and Sales: Green Plains is heavily investing in scaling its Ultra-High Protein (UHP) capacity across its biorefineries, aiming to increase its production of 50%+ protein ingredients. This expansion is designed to shift the company's revenue mix towards higher-value co-products and capture premium animal nutrition markets, including aquaculture, pet food, and monogastric diets. The company has a proven path to commercial-scale protein concentrations above 60% with its Sequence ingredient and is actively pursuing international export markets such as Canada, the EU/UK, and Asia.
- Growth in Renewable Corn Oil Production and Sales: Alongside UHP, Green Plains is enhancing its corn oil recovery, recognizing renewable corn oil as an advantaged feedstock. This product is being directed towards high-growth markets like North American renewable diesel and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) feedstock, where capacity has significantly increased. The focus on expanding corn oil yields and capturing value from this renewable oil is a strategic component of the company's revenue diversification.
- Commercialization of Clean Sugar Technology (CST): Green Plains has successfully deployed its Clean Sugar Technology (CST) at its Shenandoah, Iowa, facility, marking the world's first commercial production of low-carbon dextrose and glucose corn syrups from a dry mill. These syrups boast up to a 40% lower carbon intensity than existing alternatives and are intended for use in renewable chemicals, bio-based materials, and food and beverage formulations. The company is in advanced negotiations for multi-year agreements, with interest for these products exceeding current production capacity, indicating a strong new revenue stream.
- Development and Supply to the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Market: Green Plains is a key player in the emerging Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) market through its joint venture, Blue Blade Energy, with United Airlines and Tallgrass. This partnership aims to develop new SAF technology using ethanol as a feedstock, with United Airlines committing to purchase up to 2.7 billion gallons of SAF produced. Green Plains is positioned to supply low-carbon ethanol feedstock, underscoring the long-term potential of decarbonized corn ethanol in meeting the aviation industry's demand for sustainable fuels.
- Monetization of Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) and Tax Credits: The company is investing significantly in carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) projects at its biorefineries, with three Nebraska facilities anticipated to be operational in 2025 and four Iowa and Minnesota facilities in 2026. These initiatives are expected to generate substantial revenue through 45Q and 45Z tax credits, which incentivize the production of clean fuels and the capture of carbon dioxide. The effective monetization of these carbon credits is identified as a key near-term catalyst for revenue growth and profitability.
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Share Repurchases
- Green Plains did not repurchase any common stock in 2021, 2022, or 2023.
- In Q4 2025, Green Plains repurchased approximately 2.9 million shares of its common stock for approximately $30 million.
- The company has a board-authorized share repurchase program of up to $200.0 million.
Share Issuance
- As of December 31, 2023, the equity incentive plan had 1.4 million shares available for issuance.
- In October 2025, Green Plains issued $30 million of 5.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2030 for cash, as part of a larger $200 million convertible note transaction.
Outbound Investments
- In 2025, Green Plains divested its 50% investment in GP Turnkey Tharaldson LLC for $24.3 million.
- The company sold its ethanol plant in Obion, Tennessee, for approximately $170 million in Q3 2025.
- In September 2024, Green Plains sold a terminal in Birmingham, Alabama, and related assets for $47.5 million.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for Q4 2025 totaled $5.3 million.
- Sustaining maintenance and regulatory capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to be between $15 million and $25 million, focusing on efficiency projects and grain storage expansion.
- Carbon capture facilities at Green Plains' Central City, Wood River, and York, Nebraska plants began operations in Q4 2025. The liability for carbon equipment was $117.5 million as of Q3 2025.
Peer Outperformance in Commodity Chemicals
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | 7 | 73.5% | 89.4% | 288.0% | COPR 1050% · TGB 335% · HBM 333% |
| Steel | 13 | 27.6% | 50.2% | 155.9% | HCC 339% · AMR 317% · NWPX 315% |
| Silver | 6 | 106.1% | 346.8% | 149.6% | AYA 240% · HL 228% · SVM 183% |
| Gold | 34 | 28.2% | 198.7% | 148.7% | IAG 762% · CNL 485% · OGC 455% |
| Aluminum | 3 | 68.8% | 129.6% | 57.6% | CENX 239% · KALU 58% · AA 3% |
| Construction Materials | 7 | -20.5% | 20.2% | 44.7% | USLM 345% · CRH 85% · VMC 48% |
| Diversified Metals & Mining | 23 | -13.3% | 1.8% | 17.3% | ATLX 216329% · USAR 52115% · TII 699% |
| Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers | 10 | -6.3% | 13.1% | 5.0% | KRT 158% · MYE 65% · GEF 49% |
| Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials | 7 | 4.5% | 8.3% | -11.6% | PKG 79% · CCK 13% · SON -8% |
| Specialty Chemicals | 41 | 7.4% | -2.4% | -15.7% | ODC 459% · NEU 197% · CMT 81% |
| Commodity Chemicals ← | 12 | 18.6% | -11.1% | -25.3% | HWKN 265% · LXU 81% · MEOH 72% |
| Diversified Chemicals | 4 | -2.5% | -26.6% | -29.7% | CBT 74% · ASH -16% · CC -44% |
| Precious Metals & Minerals | 8 | 38.9% | 186.7% | -30.2% | ASM 596% · PPTA 375% · MTA 36% |
| Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals | 10 | -5.6% | -2.9% | -33.3% | CF 218% · CTVA 106% · NTR 50% |
| Paper Products | 3 | -20.3% | -51.4% | -96.0% | CLW -40% · MERC -96% · ITP -96% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Green Plains Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Green Plains Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Now Is Not The Time To Buy Green Plains Stock | 08/09/2025 | |
| Green Plains (GPRE) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Green Plains (GPRE) Operating Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Green Plains (GPRE) Net Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Green Plains (GPRE) EBITDA Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Green Plains (GPRE) Debt Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Green Plains (GPRE) Revenue Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Green Plains (GPRE) Tax Expense Comparison | 08/08/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 56.30 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.9 |
| Rev LTM | 6,384 |
| Op Inc LTM | 134 |
| FCF LTM | 98 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 150 |
| CFO LTM | 238 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 282 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -8.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 142.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 57.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethanol production | 1,902 | 2,067 | 2,825 | 3,079 | 2,153 |
| Agribusiness and energy services | 213 | 421 | 501 | 616 | 691 |
| Intersegment eliminations | -24 | -29 | -30 | -31 | -96 |
| Partnership | 78 | ||||
| Total | 2,092 | 2,459 | 3,296 | 3,663 | 2,827 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agribusiness and energy services | 21 | 28 | 28 | 36 | 17 |
| Corporate activities | -32 | -35 | -70 | -69 | -12 |
| Ethanol production | -55 | -41 | -20 | -66 | -28 |
| Intersegment eliminations | -1 | ||||
| Partnership | 49 | ||||
| Total | -67 | -47 | -62 | -99 | 26 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethanol production | 1,133 | 1,235 | 1,173 | 1,158 | 1,101 |
| Agribusiness and energy services | 278 | 412 | 414 | 489 | 487 |
| Corporate assets | 173 | 144 | 254 | 386 | 524 |
| Intersegment eliminations | -7 | -8 | -5 | -19 | -53 |
| Partnership | 103 | 109 | 100 | ||
| Total | 1,578 | 1,782 | 1,939 | 2,123 | 2,160 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $14.90 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/15/2006 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -22.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $15.91 | $14.40 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -6.4% | 3.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 57.9% | 63.0% |
| Downside Capture | -27.90 | 16.89 |
| Upside Capture | -26.88 | 64.84 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 0.1% | 11.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.07 | -0.34 | 0.58 | 1.01 |
| Up Beta | 1.00 | 2.51 | 0.97 | -0.37 | 0.22 | 1.06 |
| Down Beta | -2.20 | -2.98 | -0.17 | 0.01 | 1.26 | 1.58 |
| Up Capture | -126% | -38% | -26% | -23% | 47% | 17% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 33 | 68 | 132 | 355 |
| Down Capture | 177% | 40% | 10% | -74% | 42% | 98% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 20 | 30 | 58 | 118 | 388 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GPRE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPRE | 54.2% | 62.8% | 0.93 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.58 | 18.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.3% | 12.8% | 1.03 | 10.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.0% | 29.2% | 0.59 | 9.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.3% | 20.6% | 1.80 | 27.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.6% | 13.6% | 0.29 | 7.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -32.4% | 43.8% | -0.77 | 8.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GPRE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPRE | -17.6% | 60.3% | -0.08 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 5.5% | 19.1% | 0.18 | 37.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.5% | 17.2% | 0.55 | 33.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.7% | 18.8% | 0.81 | 5.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.4% | 19.5% | 0.46 | 24.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.7% | 18.9% | -0.07 | 27.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.4% | 52.6% | 0.36 | 15.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GPRE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPRE | -4.7% | 61.2% | 0.18 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 9.8% | 20.7% | 0.42 | 43.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 40.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.3% | 16.3% | 0.62 | 1.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.7% | 18.1% | 0.39 | 30.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 31.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.2% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 12.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/9/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/6/2026 | -7.8% | -8.4% | -9.3% |
| 5/7/2026 | -3.0% | -0.9% | -11.8% |
| 2/5/2026 | 0.5% | 23.0% | 25.6% |
| 11/5/2025 | 12.6% | 2.7% | -2.8% |
| 8/11/2025 | 19.4% | 14.1% | 35.4% |
| 5/8/2025 | 1.7% | 36.1% | 10.6% |
| 2/7/2025 | -20.4% | -21.1% | -33.9% |
| 10/31/2024 | 5.1% | 1.6% | -7.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 14 | 9 |
| # Negative | 9 | 10 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 5.1% | 13.2% | 16.1% |
| Median Negative | -7.1% | -5.5% | -8.8% |
| Max Positive | 19.4% | 36.1% | 35.4% |
| Max Negative | -20.4% | -21.1% | -33.9% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/6/2026 | -7.8% | -8.4% | -9.3% |
| 5/7/2026 | -3.0% | -0.9% | -11.8% |
| 2/5/2026 | 0.5% | 23.0% | 25.6% |
| 11/5/2025 | 12.6% | 2.7% | -2.8% |
| 8/11/2025 | 19.4% | 14.1% | 35.4% |
| 5/8/2025 | 1.7% | 36.1% | 10.6% |
| 2/7/2025 | -20.4% | -21.1% | -33.9% |
| 10/31/2024 | 5.1% | 1.6% | -7.2% |
| 8/6/2024 | -12.7% | -18.7% | -11.3% |
| 5/3/2024 | -2.7% | -2.7% | -15.2% |
| 2/7/2024 | 13.0% | 16.0% | 3.8% |
| 10/31/2023 | 2.7% | -2.5% | -15.4% |
| 8/4/2023 | -7.1% | -0.9% | -8.8% |
| 5/4/2023 | -0.2% | -11.1% | -5.8% |
| 2/8/2023 | 7.7% | 5.5% | -4.0% |
| 11/3/2022 | 13.1% | 13.8% | 26.8% |
| 8/2/2022 | 5.1% | 5.8% | -0.3% |
| 5/2/2022 | 11.6% | 14.5% | 16.1% |
| 2/11/2022 | -9.1% | -17.7% | -10.6% |
| 11/4/2021 | 2.5% | 3.0% | -6.9% |
| 8/2/2021 | 1.8% | -1.2% | -4.3% |
| 5/3/2021 | 0.5% | 7.3% | 8.5% |
| 2/9/2021 | 5.1% | 16.0% | 21.9% |
| 11/4/2020 | -1.0% | 12.5% | 5.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 14 | 9 |
| # Negative | 9 | 10 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 5.1% | 13.2% | 16.1% |
| Median Negative | -7.1% | -5.5% | -8.8% |
| Max Positive | 19.4% | 36.1% | 35.4% |
| Max Negative | -20.4% | -21.1% | -33.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/10/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/07/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/09/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/10/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/10/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/07/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/09/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/10/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/18/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/16/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/20/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/07/2019 | 10-Q |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 13, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clifford Capital Partners LLC | $10.1 Mil | 1.7% | 42 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Masters Capital Management LLC | $9.8 Mil | 1.4% | 43 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Goodlander Investment Management, LLC | $6.1 Mil | 2.1% | 12 | TRIM -72.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Broad Bay Capital Management, LP | $11.1 Mil | 1.1% | 24 | TRIM -57.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
Industry Resources
| Materials Resources |
| Chemical & Engineering News (C&EN) |
| Mining.com |
| Plastics News |
| Commodity Chemicals Resources |
| ChemAnalyst |
| S&P Global Commodity Insights - Chemicals |
| Reuters Events: Downstream |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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