CVS Health (CVS)


Market Price (11/6/2026): $81.25 | Market Cap: $104.0 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Services

CVS Health (CVS)


Market Price (11/6/2026): $81.25
Market Cap: $104.0 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Health Care Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 3.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.6%, FCF Yield is 15%

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.0 Bil

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 19 Bil, FCF LTM is 16 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Telehealth Platforms, Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -51%

Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 58%

Key risks
CVS key risks include [1] elevated Medicare costs pressuring its Health Care Benefits segment, Show more.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 3.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.6%, FCF Yield is 15%
1 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.0 Bil
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 19 Bil, FCF LTM is 16 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Telehealth Platforms, Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -51%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 58%
7 Key risks
CVS key risks include [1] elevated Medicare costs pressuring its Health Care Benefits segment, Show more.

CVS in ETFs

Weight = CVS's share of each fund

SPY0.17%
VOO0.17%
IVV0.17%
VTI0.15%
ITOT0.14%
IWB0.17%
RSP0.19%
VTV0.42%
+29 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 11/5/2026

CVS Health (CVS) stock has lost about 20% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Market Uncertainty Following Strategic Split Announcement.

The most significant event contributing to the stock's decline was the announcement on November 4, 2026, of CVS Health's plan to separate into two independent publicly traded companies: CVS Health (focusing on healthcare solutions including Aetna and Caremark) and CVS Pharmacy (encompassing retail pharmacies and MinuteClinic operations). Despite reporting stronger-than-expected Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings, with an Adjusted EPS of $2.09 against a $1.65 consensus, and raising its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $8.20 from a previous range of $7.90 to $8.10, the stock experienced a sharp drop of approximately 12.53% on November 4, 2026. This reaction, which resulted in a loss of over $14 billion in valuation, was primarily driven by market uncertainty surrounding the details of the split and concerns about potential pharmacy benefit headwinds in fiscal 2027.

2. Persistent Negative Market Reaction to Strong Earnings.

Even prior to the strategic split announcement, CVS Health's stock demonstrated a pattern of negative market reactions despite strong financial performance. Following its Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings report on August 5, 2026, the stock fell 5.1%. This decline occurred despite the company beating analyst estimates with an Adjusted EPS of $2.58, significantly exceeding the $1.87 consensus, and reporting revenues of $106.1 billion, above the $100.03 billion estimate. This indicates an underlying investor skepticism or concerns that were not fully alleviated by positive earnings and guidance.

Show more
Updated on 11/5/2026

CVS Health (CVS) stock has lost about 20% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Market Uncertainty Following Strategic Split Announcement.

The most significant event contributing to the stock's decline was the announcement on November 4, 2026, of CVS Health's plan to separate into two independent publicly traded companies: CVS Health (focusing on healthcare solutions including Aetna and Caremark) and CVS Pharmacy (encompassing retail pharmacies and MinuteClinic operations). Despite reporting stronger-than-expected Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings, with an Adjusted EPS of $2.09 against a $1.65 consensus, and raising its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $8.20 from a previous range of $7.90 to $8.10, the stock experienced a sharp drop of approximately 12.53% on November 4, 2026. This reaction, which resulted in a loss of over $14 billion in valuation, was primarily driven by market uncertainty surrounding the details of the split and concerns about potential pharmacy benefit headwinds in fiscal 2027.

2. Persistent Negative Market Reaction to Strong Earnings.

Even prior to the strategic split announcement, CVS Health's stock demonstrated a pattern of negative market reactions despite strong financial performance. Following its Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings report on August 5, 2026, the stock fell 5.1%. This decline occurred despite the company beating analyst estimates with an Adjusted EPS of $2.58, significantly exceeding the $1.87 consensus, and reporting revenues of $106.1 billion, above the $100.03 billion estimate. This indicates an underlying investor skepticism or concerns that were not fully alleviated by positive earnings and guidance.

3. Growing Regulatory Scrutiny on Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs).

Throughout the specified period, the healthcare industry, and particularly the Pharmacy Benefit Manager (PBM) sector, faced increasing regulatory pressure. This is a significant external factor for CVS Health, given that its Caremark segment is a major PBM. States like Arkansas and Tennessee have enacted laws prohibiting PBM ownership of pharmacies, and similar federal legislation has been introduced. This heightened scrutiny creates an environment of uncertainty and potential operational and financial headwinds for CVS Health's integrated business model.

4. Substantial Insider Selling Activity.

A notable internal factor contributing to negative sentiment was the significant insider selling activity. Over the six months leading up to October 31, 2026, insiders at CVS Health sold a total of $323.70 million worth of stock, with no insider buying reported during the same period. This substantial net selling by company executives, including large individual transactions, can signal a lack of confidence in the company's near-term prospects and exert downward pressure on the stock price.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -21.6% change in CVS stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -79.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)731202611052026Change
Stock Price ($)103.6981.33-21.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)407,905420,6143.1%
Net Income Margin (%)0.7%2.6%265.1%
P/E Multiple45.09.4-79.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,2731,282-0.7%
Cumulative Contribution-21.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2026 to 11/5/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CVS-21.6% 
Market (SPY)-1.9%-24.7%
Sector (XLV)13.8%-9.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The -1.0% change in CVS stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -84.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)430202611052026Change
Stock Price ($)82.1981.33-1.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)402,067420,6144.6%
Net Income Margin (%)0.4%2.6%496.7%
P/E Multiple59.09.4-84.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,2701,282-0.9%
Cumulative Contribution-1.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2026 to 11/5/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CVS-1.0% 
Market (SPY)2.3%-9.4%
Sector (XLV)27.2%10.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The 7.3% change in CVS stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 2104.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)1031202511052026Change
Stock Price ($)75.8281.337.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)394,084420,6146.7%
Net Income Margin (%)0.1%2.6%2104.9%
P/E Multiple205.29.4-95.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,2691,282-1.0%
Cumulative Contribution7.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 11/5/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CVS7.3% 
Market (SPY)8.4%-2.2%
Sector (XLV)29.8%18.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The 32.0% change in CVS stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 200.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)1031202311052026Change
Stock Price ($)61.6381.3332.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)339,204420,61424.0%
Net Income Margin (%)0.9%2.6%200.2%
P/E Multiple26.79.4-64.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,2831,2820.1%
Cumulative Contribution32.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2023 to 11/5/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CVS32.0% 
Market (SPY)81.3%10.6%
Sector (XLV)55.5%27.0%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
CVS Return55%-8%-13%-41%84%6%44%
Peers Return24%15%-2%0%-2%27%75%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%12%105%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CVS Win Rate58%42%33%33%67%55% 
Peers Win Rate53%58%45%55%58%45% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%45% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CVS Max Drawdown-11%-20%-28%-44%-15%-27% 
Peers Max Drawdown-17%-18%-18%-28%-35%-26% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: UNH, CI, ELV, HUM, WMT. See CVS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/5/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventCVSS&P 500
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-13.9%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven16.1%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven99 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-25.2%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven33.7%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven855 days31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-14.3%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven16.7%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven49 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-27.1%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven37.2%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven239 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-20.7%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven26.1%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven711 days105 days
2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff
  % Loss-18.1%-3.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven22.0%3.9%
  Time to Breakeven1638 days6 days

Compare to UNH, CI, ELV, HUM, WMT

In The Past

CVS Health's stock fell -8.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 9.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventCVSS&P 500
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-25.2%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven33.7%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven855 days31 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-27.1%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven37.2%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven239 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-20.7%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven26.1%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven711 days105 days
2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash
  % Loss-22.6%-15.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven29.1%18.2%
  Time to Breakeven301 days125 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-39.1%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven64.3%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven799 days1085 days

Compare to UNH, CI, ELV, HUM, WMT

In The Past

CVS Health's stock fell -8.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 9.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About CVS Health (CVS)

CVS Health is a leading diversified healthcare company in the United States, providing a wide array of health services. Its business is primarily structured around three core segments: health insurance, pharmacy benefit management, and retail pharmacy with integrated clinics. This comprehensive approach allows CVS Health to address various healthcare needs for a broad spectrum of customers and markets.

Through its Health Care Benefits segment, CVS Health offers traditional and consumer-directed health insurance products and related services to employer groups, individuals, college students, governmental units, and other health plans. The Pharmacy Services segment provides extensive pharmacy benefit management solutions, including plan design, formulary management, and specialty pharmacy services, primarily serving employers, insurance companies, unions, and government-sponsored plans. This segment also operates various specialized pharmacies for mail-order, compounding, and infusion services.

Finally, CVS Health's Retail/LTC segment operates a vast network of CVS Pharmacy retail locations where it sells prescription and over-the-counter drugs, consumer health and beauty products, and offers convenient healthcare services through its MinuteClinic walk-in medical clinics. This segment also distributes prescription drugs and provides related pharmacy consulting and services to long-term care facilities, further extending its reach to serve individual consumers and care institutions alike.

AI Analysis | Feedback

A company combining the retail presence of Walgreens, the health insurance of UnitedHealthcare, and pharmacy benefit management like Express Scripts.

A healthcare giant like UnitedHealth Group, but with a massive retail pharmacy and clinic footprint akin to Walgreens.

It's like Walgreens and UnitedHealthcare merged, then added a major pharmacy benefit management arm.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Health Insurance Products: CVS Health offers various traditional and consumer-directed health insurance plans and related services.
  • Pharmacy Benefit Management (PBM) Solutions: CVS Health provides pharmacy benefit management services, including formulary management, mail order, and specialty pharmacy services, to employers and health plans.
  • Retail Pharmacy Sales: CVS Health sells prescription and over-the-counter drugs, as well as general consumer health and beauty products, through its retail stores.
  • Specialty Pharmacy and Infusion Services: CVS Health provides specialized pharmacy services for complex medical conditions, including mail-order, compounding, and infusion services.
  • MinuteClinic Walk-in Medical Services: CVS Health offers accessible healthcare services for minor illnesses and injuries through its MinuteClinic walk-in clinics.
  • Long-Term Care (LTC) Pharmacy Services: CVS Health provides prescription drug distribution and related pharmacy consulting services to long-term care facilities.

AI Analysis | Feedback

CVS Health serves a diverse customer base, primarily reaching individuals through various channels, including direct sales and through intermediary organizations. Based on the provided description, its major customer categories are:

  1. Individual Consumers: This includes people who directly purchase prescription drugs, over-the-counter medications, consumer health and beauty products at CVS retail locations and online. It also encompasses individuals seeking health care services through MinuteClinic walk-in medical clinics, as well as college students, part-time and hourly workers, and expatriates who may directly enroll in health insurance products.

  2. Employer Groups and Organizations: This category includes employers, labor groups, unions, government employee groups, and other sponsors of health benefit plans. These entities purchase health insurance products, pharmacy benefit management (PBM) solutions, and related services from CVS Health to provide to their employees, members, or constituents.

  3. Health Plans, Insurers, and Care Facilities: This category encompasses insurance companies, health plans, governmental units, government-sponsored plans, prescription drug plans, and Medicaid managed care plans. These organizations contract with CVS Health for services such as formulary management, retail pharmacy network management, mail order pharmacy, specialty pharmacy, infusion, and clinical services. Additionally, care facilities and other care settings purchase prescription drugs and related pharmacy consulting services from CVS Health's Retail/LTC segment.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Cencora (COR)
  • Cardinal Health (CAH)
  • McKesson Corporation (MCK)

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David Joyner, Chairman and CEO David Joyner assumed the role of Chairman and CEO of CVS Health in October 2024. He brings over 37 years of experience in healthcare and pharmacy benefit management to the company. Prior to his appointment as CEO, Joyner led CVS Caremark's pharmacy services division, overseeing pharmacy benefits for approximately 90 million members. His career began at Aetna as an employee benefit representative. Joyner has also served on the boards of several private equity-backed healthcare companies and advised the founder and CEO of gWell, a precision health and medicine company. He holds a Bachelor of Business Administration in finance from Texas Tech University. Brian Newman, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Brian Newman was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of CVS Health, effective May 12, 2025, having started the role on April 21, 2025. Before joining CVS Health, he served as CFO of United Parcel Service (UPS) from 2019 to May 2024. Newman also spent 26 years at PepsiCo, Inc., holding various global financial leadership roles, including executive vice president for Global Operations and Chief Strategy Officer. He began his career as an investment banker. Newman currently serves on the Board of Colgate-Palmolive and the Board of Regents at Georgetown University. Tilak Mandadi, Executive Vice President, Ventures and Chief Experience and Technology Officer Tilak Mandadi is the Executive Vice President, Ventures and Chief Experience and Technology Officer at CVS Health, where he leads the company's data, digital, and technology strategy, and oversees growth and innovation through digital-led, consumer-facing experiences. His previous roles include Chief Strategy, Innovation & Technology Officer at MGM Resorts International. Prior to MGM, he was the Executive Vice President of Digital, and Chief Technology Officer at Disney Parks, Experiences and Products, where he oversaw a global team serving over 150 million annual guests and consumers. Before his time at Disney, Mandadi led global Digital Transformation at American Express, focusing on cards, consumer travel, and banking. He holds a master's degree in computer science from the University of Oregon. Sree Chaguturu, MD, Executive Vice President and President of Health Care Delivery Dr. Sree Chaguturu serves as Executive Vice President and President of Health Care Delivery at CVS Health. He is responsible for overseeing healthcare delivery operations, and champions clinical innovation, integrated care models, and improved patient outcomes. Dr. Chaguturu leads CVS Health's medical affairs organization, which encompasses various segments including Aetna, CVS Caremark, CVS Pharmacy, MinuteClinic, women's health and genomics, data and analytics, patient safety, and health equity. He previously held the position of Chief Medical Officer for CVS Caremark. Amy Compton-Phillips, MD, Executive Vice President and Chief Medical Officer Dr. Amy Compton-Phillips is the Executive Vice President and Chief Medical Officer of CVS Health, a role she assumed on May 19, 2025. In this capacity, she is responsible for setting clinical strategy and leading medical affairs, driving quality improvement and innovation across CVS Health's services. Before joining CVS Health, Dr. Compton-Phillips was the president and chief physician executive of Press Ganey, a firm focused on healthcare performance improvement. Her extensive background also includes seven years as president of clinical operations at Providence Health and 22 years in various roles at Kaiser Permanente.

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Key Risks to CVS Health (CVS)

  1. Regulatory and Reimbursement Pressures: CVS Health operates in a heavily regulated healthcare environment, making it vulnerable to changes in government policies, laws, and regulations, particularly concerning reimbursement rates for its government-sponsored programs like Medicare and Medicaid. Weakness in Medicare Advantage rates, specifically a proposed low increase for 2027, could undermine over one-third of CVS Health's revenue and hinder growth in this critical segment. Pharmacy reimbursement pressures further contribute to this risk.

  2. Intense Competition and Market Saturation: The company faces significant and increasing competition across all its segments from traditional pharmacy chains, other health insurers, pharmacy benefit managers, online retailers (including tech giants entering healthcare), and new healthcare providers. This competitive landscape necessitates continuous innovation and adaptation to maintain market share and relevance, potentially leading to pricing pressures and reduced profitability.

  3. Rising Medical Costs and Profit Margin Erosion: CVS Health is exposed to the risk of rising medical costs, particularly within its Health Care Benefits segment. Higher-than-expected medical expenses can significantly impact the company's already thin single-digit profit margins and lead to substantial financial consequences, especially in the absence of robust sales growth. Challenges such as unforeseen heightened utilization in Medicare Advantage further exacerbate these pressures.

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  • Increased legislative and regulatory scrutiny of Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs) could significantly impact the profitability and operating model of CVS Health's Pharmacy Services segment (CVS Caremark).
  • The expansion of online prescription fulfillment services, particularly from major entrants like Amazon Pharmacy, poses a direct competitive threat to CVS Health's retail pharmacy and mail-order businesses by offering alternative, convenient, and potentially lower-cost prescription access.

AI Analysis | Feedback

CVS Health Corporation operates in several large addressable markets within the United States.

Health Care Benefits

The U.S. health and medical insurance market, in which CVS Health's Health Care Benefits segment (Aetna) operates, is substantial. This market was valued at approximately USD 1.65 trillion in 2026 and is projected to grow to USD 2.15 trillion by 2031. Another estimate placed the market at USD 613.0 billion in 2024, expanding to USD 1161.7 billion by 2032. A further report valued the market at USD 469.8 billion in 2025.

Pharmacy Services

CVS Health's Pharmacy Services segment (CVS Caremark) participates in the U.S. pharmacy benefit management (PBM) market. This market was estimated at USD 519.45 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach approximately USD 921.52 billion by 2035. Other reports indicate the PBM market size was calculated at USD 459.65 billion in 2025, with a projection to reach around USD 1,041.11 billion by 2034. Additionally, the U.S. specialty pharmacy market, a key component of pharmacy services, saw an estimated $265 billion in dispensed pharmaceuticals in 2024.

Retail/LTC

In its Retail/LTC segment, CVS Health operates in several U.S. markets:

  • Retail Pharmacy: The U.S. retail pharmacy market is estimated to reach US$ 670.6 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to US$ 901.4 billion by 2032. Another source noted the market size as USD 670.5 billion in 2025. More broadly, the U.S. pharmacy market was valued at USD 643.4 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 905.8 billion by 2033.
  • MinuteClinic (Retail Clinics/Walk-in Clinics): The U.S. retail clinics market was valued at USD 2.44 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow from USD 2.71 billion in 2025 to USD 6.29 billion by 2033. Another estimate for the walk-in clinic market size in 2025 is $7.45 billion, with a projection to reach approximately $20 billion by 2033.
  • Long-Term Care (LTC) Pharmacy Services: The U.S. long-term care pharmacy services market is estimated to be valued at USD 22.8 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 38.7 billion by 2032.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for CVS Health (CVS) over the next 2-3 years:
  • Expansion of Health Services and Care Delivery: CVS Health anticipates significant revenue growth from its Health Services segment, particularly through the expansion and integration of acquired assets like Oak Street Health and Signify Health. The company plans to add 50 to 60 new Oak Street Health centers in 2024, and the new CVS Healthspire brand aims to simplify access to multi-payor capabilities, driving better outcomes and increased member value.
  • Growth in Medicare Advantage Membership and Margin Recovery: The Medicare Advantage business, operated under its Aetna arm, is integral to CVS Health's strategy. Despite some challenges with elevated medical costs in 2024, CVS Health expects to add at least 800,000 new Medicare Advantage members in 2024 and anticipates Medicare Advantage margin recovery starting in 2025. This recovery is a key driver for strong earnings growth and a favorable long-term outlook.
  • New Pharmacy Reimbursement Models: CVS Health is implementing new pharmacy reimbursement models, including CVS CostVantage for its retail pharmacies and CVS Caremark TrueCost for Pharmacy Benefit Manager (PBM) clients. These models, with CostVantage launching for commercial payors in 2025, are designed to create a more transparent, sustainable, and value-aligned approach to pharmacy reimbursement, reflecting the true net cost of prescription drugs.
  • Optimization of Pharmacy and Consumer Wellness Segment: The Pharmacy and Consumer Wellness segment is expected to continue contributing to revenue growth through increased prescription volume, a favorable pharmacy drug mix, and the strategic integration of its retail pharmacies as a "front door" to the broader healthcare enterprise. The retail arm demonstrated strong revenue growth in 2023 and Q4 2024.
  • Leveraging Technology and Integrated Platform for Enhanced Engagement: CVS Health is developing a fully integrated, AI-native platform, branded as "Engagement as a Service," to connect its various healthcare entities (Aetna, CVS Caremark, CVS Pharmacy, and Health Care Delivery). This initiative aims to transform consumer experiences, enhance engagement, lower healthcare costs, and unlock personalized products and services, ultimately driving greater lifetime member value.

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Share Repurchases

  • CVS Health repurchased approximately $3.0 billion of common stock during the nine months ended September 30, 2024, and approximately $2.0 billion during the nine months ended September 30, 2023, under its 2021 Repurchase Program.
  • As of February 10, 2026, the company completed repurchases of approximately $8.5 billion under the buyback announced on December 9, 2021.
  • The Board of Directors authorized a $10.0 billion share repurchase program on November 17, 2022, with the full $10.0 billion remaining as of September 30, 2024.

Share Issuance

  • CVS Health's shares outstanding for 2025 were 1.271 billion, a 0.71% increase from 2024.
  • In November 2024, a one-time promotional equity award was granted to the CEO, consisting of stock options to acquire one million shares and stock-settled SARs with respect to 492,537 shares, with a grant price of $71.82 per share.

Outbound Investments

  • CVS Health acquired Oak Street Health for $10.6 billion in February 2023.
  • CVS Health acquired Signify Health for $8 billion in September 2022.
  • In April 2024, CVS Health acquired Hella Health, a platform offering Medicare health insurance plans.

Capital Expenditures

  • CVS Health's capital expenditures for fiscal years ending December 2021 to 2025 averaged $2.778 billion, with a peak of $3.031 billion in December 2023.
  • The company plans a substantial $20 billion investment over the next decade, beginning in June 2025, to enhance technology and interoperability in healthcare delivery.
  • A multi-year plan to close approximately 900 stores aims to refocus assets into HealthHUBs that offer expanded clinical services.

Better Bets vs. CVS Health (CVS)

Peer Outperformance in Health Care Services

CVS has trailed 53% of its 19 Health Care Services peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it are DGX, DVA and LH. Health Care Services ranks 2nd of 10 industries in Health Care by median 5Y return. That makes it one of the strongest corners of the sector.
Share of Health Care Services constituents that CVS has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
33%
of 21 industry peers · 6.7% return
3Y
47%
of 19 industry peers · 28.1% return
5Y
47%
of 19 industry peers · 2.5% return
Health Care Services peers with revenue growth within 4pp of CVS's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
Ticker Name Rev Growth 3Y Avg P/E 1Y3Y5Y 5Y Gap
CVS CVS Health 6.5% 9.4x 6.7%28.1%2.5% —
DGX Quest Diagnostics 8.5% 24.8x 45.3%101.4%99.6% +97pp
DVA DaVita 6.0% 13.5x 60.8%146.7%78.1% +76pp
LH Labcorp 6.6% 29.3x 46.4%78.3%36.0% +33pp
CRVL CorVel 10.4% 37.8x 13.8%29.7%35.9% +33pp
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Health Care sector, ranked by 5Y. Health Care Services is CVS's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Health Care Distributors 6 7.6%56.6%93.6% CAH 498% · MCK 396% · COR 181%
Health Care Services ← 20 33.8%28.8%6.1% HIMS 189% · RDNT 125% · DGX 100%
Health Care Facilities 25 13.9%27.4%-1.4% THC 280% · NHC 210% · EHC 186%
Managed Health Care 8 47.9%1.6%-2.2% OSCR 95% · HQY 52% · ELV 10%
Health Care Equipment 50 11.0%17.8%-17.6% UFPT 355% · GKOS 286% · PLSE 127%
Pharmaceuticals 61 -12.9%10.6%-37.3% LQDA 977% · XERS 571% · KNSA 500%
Health Care Supplies 11 23.9%17.0%-40.1% LNTH 248% · HAE 66% · MMSI 29%
Life Sciences Tools & Services 108 -8.1%-18.9%-74.5% AXGN 255% · NTRA 214% · MEDP 181%
Biotechnology 364 -25.8%-36.1%-82.0% ELVN 1073% · TRVI 995% · DNTH 956%
Health Care Technology 21 -21.4%-50.4%-82.8% VEEV -3% · DOCS -51%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are limited to companies above $2B market cap.

Latest Trefis Analyses

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CVSUNHCIELVHUMWMTMedian
NameCVS Heal.UnitedHe.Cigna Elevance.Humana Walmart  
Mkt Price81.25391.41301.45431.98411.00127.01346.43
Mkt Cap104.2351.179.393.649.31,010.298.9
Rev LTM420,614449,662281,336201,831145,679735,840350,975
Op Inc LTM15,06123,9248,911--32,28019,492
FCF LTM15,56722,8269,1136,5141,94913,50911,311
FCF 3Y Avg7,84917,7657,0063,717-22213,0827,427
CFO LTM18,70826,19510,2777,5962,53942,92314,492
CFO 3Y Avg10,80921,2658,3224,88040838,4149,566

Growth & Margins

CVSUNHCIELVHUMWMTMedian
NameCVS Heal.UnitedHe.Cigna Elevance.Humana Walmart  
Rev Chg LTM6.7%3.3%7.7%3.6%18.3%6.2%6.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg6.5%7.7%15.1%6.3%13.9%5.3%7.1%
Rev Chg Q5.4%-0.4%6.7%1.4%26.2%5.9%5.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.3%-0.1%1.6%0.4%6.2%1.5%1.4%
Op Inc Chg LTM41.4%-9.2%8.8%--11.4%10.1%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg4.1%-8.4%7.6%--14.5%5.9%
Op Mgn LTM3.6%5.3%3.2%--4.4%4.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.1%6.5%3.3%--4.3%3.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.2%0.5%0.1%--0.2%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM4.4%5.8%3.7%3.8%1.7%5.8%4.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg2.7%5.0%3.3%2.5%0.1%5.5%3.0%
FCF/Rev LTM3.7%5.1%3.2%3.2%1.3%1.8%3.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg1.9%4.1%2.8%1.9%-0.4%1.9%1.9%

Valuation

CVSUNHCIELVHUMWMTMedian
NameCVS Heal.UnitedHe.Cigna Elevance.Humana Walmart  
Mkt Cap104.2351.179.393.649.31,010.298.9
P/S0.20.80.30.50.31.40.4
P/Op Inc6.914.78.9--31.311.8
P/EBIT6.914.97.912.220.831.913.5
P/E9.422.112.418.238.645.820.2
P/CFO5.613.47.712.319.423.512.9
Total Yield13.9%6.8%10.1%7.1%3.5%2.9%6.9%
Dividend Yield3.3%2.3%2.0%1.6%0.9%0.8%1.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg7.6%5.0%8.7%4.6%0.4%1.8%4.8%
D/E0.70.20.40.30.30.10.3
Net D/E0.60.10.3-0.1-0.20.10.1

Returns

CVSUNHCIELVHUMWMTMedian
NameCVS Heal.UnitedHe.Cigna Elevance.Humana Walmart  
1M Rtn-5.3%4.0%9.9%8.0%1.9%18.5%6.0%
3M Rtn-15.0%-2.5%10.1%10.8%12.2%13.6%10.5%
6M Rtn-5.7%7.1%7.3%16.8%67.1%-2.0%7.2%
12M Rtn6.6%22.6%18.8%38.5%57.2%26.2%24.4%
3Y Rtn28.0%-21.9%4.1%-0.1%-12.5%138.5%2.0%
1M Excs Rtn-5.5%5.5%9.7%8.3%5.3%18.9%6.9%
3M Excs Rtn-13.6%-2.4%8.2%11.0%7.9%14.7%8.0%
6M Excs Rtn-10.5%2.4%2.5%12.0%62.3%-6.8%2.5%
12M Excs Rtn-6.3%8.1%2.9%25.6%34.2%11.8%9.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-51.4%-104.6%-80.0%-82.4%-101.8%57.8%-81.2%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Health Services190,425173,605186,843169,576153,892
Health Care Benefits143,354130,665105,64691,35082,119
Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness139,367124,500116,763108,596101,620
Corporate/Other484451451530721
Intersegment Eliminations-71,563-56,412-51,927-47,585-46,241
Total402,067372,809357,776322,467292,111


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Health Services7,1517,2437,3126,7816,492
Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness6,0405,7745,9636,5317,260
Health Care Benefits2,9393075,5776,3385,110
Office real estate optimization charges-10-30-46-1170
Net realized capital losses-44117-497-320176
Health Care Delivery clinic closure charge-83    
Acquisition-related integration costs-117-243-487 -132
Loss on Accountable Care assets-288  -2,5330
Opioid litigation charge-320-100   
Legacy litigation charges-1,220    
Corporate/Other-1,687-1,348-1,318-1,613-1,635
Amortization of intangible assets-1,976-2,025-1,905-1,785-2,233
Goodwill impairment-5,725   -431
Restructuring charges -1,179-507 0
Loss on assets held for sale  -349  
Gain on divestiture of subsidiary   4750
Omnicare litigation charge   -5,8030
Acquisition purchase price adjustment outside of measurement period    61
Intersegment Eliminations    0
Store impairments    -1,358
Total4,6608,51613,7437,95413,310


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20142013201220112010
Pharmacy Services Segment42,30238,34336,05735,70432,254
Retail Pharmacy30,97930,19129,18328,32328,927
Corporate2,5304,4201,4081,1211,439
Intersegment-1,559    
Eliminations -1,428-736-605-451
Total74,25271,52665,91264,54362,169


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$81.33 
Market Cap ($ Bil)104.3 
First Trading Date12/17/1984 
Distance from 52W High-25.5% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$90.06$87.75
DMA Trenddownup
Distance from DMA-9.7%-7.3%
 3M1YR
Volatility36.0%33.9%
Downside Capture9.41-2.65
Upside Capture-96.714.12
Correlation (S&P 500)-27.7%-0.5%
CVS Betas & Captures as of 10/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta-0.58-0.31-0.210.050.100.28
Up Beta-1.77-1.57-0.77-0.23-0.030.41
Down Beta-0.12-0.94-1.11-0.170.140.33
Up Capture-21%-6%-15%28%16%6%
Bmk +ve Days12182862130427
Stock +ve Days10132256125399
Down Capture-113%21%68%7%0%22%
Bmk -ve Days10253664121325
Stock -ve Days12304169125351

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with CVS
CVS7.4%33.9%0.25-
Sector ETF (XLV)29.2%16.9%1.3318.1%
Equity (SPY)9.5%13.6%0.41-2.4%
Gold (GLD)3.6%28.7%0.11-6.6%
Commodities (DBC)37.7%21.2%1.400.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)12.0%14.2%0.558.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-20.8%43.3%-0.42-5.0%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with CVS
CVS1.6%31.0%0.08-
Sector ETF (XLV)8.6%15.4%0.3637.0%
Equity (SPY)11.3%17.3%0.4822.6%
Gold (GLD)17.5%19.1%0.74-4.5%
Commodities (DBC)8.0%19.6%0.294.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)1.2%18.9%-0.0521.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)5.9%51.5%0.298.7%

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Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with CVS
CVS2.4%29.8%0.13-
Sector ETF (XLV)12.2%16.8%0.6048.6%
Equity (SPY)14.9%18.0%0.7037.9%
Gold (GLD)12.0%16.5%0.59-3.7%
Commodities (DBC)7.6%18.1%0.3311.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.7%20.7%0.2332.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)61.3%66.2%1.016.9%

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Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity16.2 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 9302026-1.7%
Average Daily Volume10.3 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.6 days
Basic Shares Quantity1,282.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares1.3%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 11/6/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/2026-12.5%  
8/5/2026-5.1%-10.5%-6.9%
5/6/20267.6%17.9%17.5%
2/10/2026-0.1%3.2%-0.1%
10/29/2025-1.9%-5.0%-2.8%
7/31/2025-0.3%2.0%15.8%
5/1/20254.1%0.1%-4.0%
2/12/202514.9%20.7%19.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131512
# Negative12912
Median Positive4.8%3.2%5.2%
Median Negative-3.4%-5.0%-4.7%
Max Positive14.9%20.7%19.9%
Max Negative-16.8%-17.7%-17.2%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/2026-12.5%  
8/5/2026-5.1%-10.5%-6.9%
5/6/20267.6%17.9%17.5%
2/10/2026-0.1%3.2%-0.1%
10/29/2025-1.9%-5.0%-2.8%
7/31/2025-0.3%2.0%15.8%
5/1/20254.1%0.1%-4.0%
2/12/202514.9%20.7%19.5%
11/6/202411.3%-2.4%2.7%
8/7/2024-3.2%-4.3%-0.5%
5/1/2024-16.8%-17.7%-17.2%
2/7/20243.1%3.8%0.7%
11/1/2023-0.4%1.8%-1.5%
8/2/20233.3%0.1%-9.6%
5/3/2023-3.7%-3.8%-5.3%
2/8/20233.5%3.0%-10.4%
11/2/20222.3%7.4%7.4%
8/3/20226.3%8.7%2.9%
5/4/20224.8%2.3%1.3%
2/9/2022-5.4%-7.1%-6.1%
11/3/20215.7%1.8%-1.3%
8/4/2021-2.9%-0.9%2.0%
5/4/20214.4%10.5%10.7%
2/16/2021-5.0%-5.0%1.2%
11/6/20205.8%13.0%19.9%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131512
# Negative12912
Median Positive4.8%3.2%5.2%
Median Negative-3.4%-5.0%-4.7%
Max Positive14.9%20.7%19.9%
Max Negative-16.8%-17.7%-17.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202611/04/202610-Q
06/30/202608/05/202610-Q
03/31/202605/06/202610-Q
12/31/202502/10/202610-K
09/30/202510/29/202510-Q
06/30/202507/31/202510-Q
03/31/202505/01/202510-Q
12/31/202402/12/202510-K
09/30/202411/06/202410-Q
06/30/202408/07/202410-Q
03/31/202405/01/202410-Q
12/31/202302/07/202410-K
09/30/202311/01/202310-Q
06/30/202308/02/202310-Q
03/31/202305/03/202310-Q
12/31/202202/08/202310-K
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202611/04/202610-Q
06/30/202608/05/202610-Q
03/31/202605/06/202610-Q
12/31/202502/10/202610-K
09/30/202510/29/202510-Q
06/30/202507/31/202510-Q
03/31/202505/01/202510-Q
12/31/202402/12/202510-K
09/30/202411/06/202410-Q
06/30/202408/07/202410-Q
03/31/202405/01/202410-Q
12/31/202302/07/202410-K
09/30/202311/01/202310-Q
06/30/202308/02/202310-Q
03/31/202305/03/202310-Q
12/31/202202/08/202310-K
09/30/202211/02/202210-Q
06/30/202208/03/202210-Q
03/31/202205/04/202210-Q
12/31/202102/09/202210-K
09/30/202111/03/202110-Q
06/30/202108/04/202110-Q
03/31/202105/04/202110-Q
12/31/202002/16/202110-K
09/30/202011/06/202010-Q
06/30/202008/05/202010-Q
03/31/202005/06/202010-Q
12/31/201902/18/202010-K

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 11/5/2026

Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/4/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Cash flow from operationsReported15.50 Bil15.50 Bil 34.8% RaisedGuidance: 11.50 Bil for 2026
2026 Adjusted income attributable to CVS HealthReported10.57 Bil10.57 Bil    
2026 Total revenuesReported420.00 Bil420.00 Bil 1.4% RaisedGuidance: 414.00 Bil for 2026
2026 Net income attributable to CVS Health (GAAP measure)Reported9.00 Bil9.00 Bil    
2026 GAAP diluted EPSReported6.986.98 0.6% RaisedGuidance: 6.94 for 2026
2026 Adjusted EPSReported8.28.2 2.5% RaisedGuidance: 8 for 2026
2026 Weighted average diluted shares outstandingReported 1.29 Bil    


Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/5/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Cash Flow from OperationsReported 11.50 Bil 21.1% RaisedGuidance: 9.50 Bil for 2026
2026 RevenueReported 414.00 Bil 2.2% RaisedGuidance: 405.00 Bil for 2026
2026 GAAP Diluted EPSReported6.846.947.049.5% RaisedGuidance: 6.34 for 2026
2026 Adjusted EPSReported7.988.18.1% RaisedGuidance: 7.4 for 2026

Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Cash flow from operationsReported 9.50 Bil 5.6% RaisedGuidance: 9.00 Bil for 2026
2026 Total revenuesReported 405.00 Bil    
2026 Diluted earnings per shareReported6.246.346.445.0% RaisedGuidance: 6.04 for 2026
2026 Adjusted EPSReported7.37.47.54.2% RaisedGuidance: 7.1 for 2026

Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/10/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Cash Flow from OperationsReported 9.00 Bil -10.0% LoweredGuidance: 10.00 Bil for 2025
2026 GAAP Diluted EPSReported5.946.046.14  AffirmedActual: -0.29 for 2025
2026 Adjusted EPSReported77.17.2  AffirmedActual: 6.6 for 2025

Insider Activity

Updated 6/29/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Robbins, Larry Held by Glenview Investment FundsSell521202693.45370,46234,619,007450,868,782Form
2Robbins, Larry Held by Glenview Investment FundsSell521202693.821,018,00095,510,822487,429,908Form
3Robbins, Larry Held by Glenview Investment FundsSell521202694.451,983,538187,341,308586,830,421Form
4Mandadi, TilakEVP, Chief Exp & Tech OfficerDirectSell511202689.5869,5516,230,379907,714Form
5Nelson, Steven HEVP and President, AetnaTrustBuy126202653.70241,2891,289Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Robbins, Larry Held by Glenview Investment FundsSell521202693.45370,46234,619,007450,868,782Form
2Robbins, Larry Held by Glenview Investment FundsSell521202693.821,018,00095,510,822487,429,908Form
3Robbins, Larry Held by Glenview Investment FundsSell521202694.451,983,538187,341,308586,830,421Form
4Mandadi, TilakEVP, Chief Exp & Tech OfficerDirectSell511202689.5869,5516,230,379907,714Form
5Nelson, Steven HEVP and President, AetnaTrustBuy126202653.70241,2891,289Form
6Capozzi, Heidi BEVP and Chief People OfficerTrustBuy1014202556.85351,9904,832Form
7Capozzi, Heidi BEVP and Chief People OfficerTrustBuy1014202562.24106223,112Form
8Capozzi, Heidi BEVP and Chief People OfficerTrustBuy1014202556.47351,9762,259Form
9Finucane, Anne A TrustSell829202571.027,500532,6501,573,519Form
10Sansone, Guy P DirectBuy609202563.701,570100,009764,869Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Nov 6, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Glenview Capital Management, LLC$588.7 Mil15.9%41Hold13F
Fairfax Financial Holdings LTD/ Can$194.8 Mil10.0%29Hold13F
Solel Partners LP$35.5 Mil7.6%19TRIM -16.8%13F
Kiltearn Partners LLP$26.2 Mil7.1%25TRIM -17.4%13F
Colrain Capital LLC$10.7 Mil4.1%26ADD +21.6%13F
Patient Capital Management, LLC$97.5 Mil3.6%38ADD +10.2%13F
Permit Capital, LLC$9.0 Mil3.1%19Hold13F
Atle Fund Management AB$9.3 Mil3.0%39TRIM -77.7%13F
Hamlin Capital Management, LLC$118.0 Mil2.8%30TRIM -19.0%13F
Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc.$75.3 Mil2.4%44ADD +28.4%13F
Sector Gamma AS$9.7 Mil2.3%42TRIM -23.8%13F
SRB Corp$36.3 Mil2.2%44Hold13F
MFF Capital Investments Ltd$25.9 Mil1.7%19ADD +17.2%13F
Legacy CG, LLC$5.7 Mil1.6%45Hold13F
Park West Asset Management LLC$12.7 Mil1.1%48ADD +20.1%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc.$75.3 Mil2.4%44ADD +28.4%13F
Colrain Capital LLC$10.7 Mil4.1%26ADD +21.6%13F
Park West Asset Management LLC$12.7 Mil1.1%48ADD +20.1%13F
MFF Capital Investments Ltd$25.9 Mil1.7%19ADD +17.2%13F
Patient Capital Management, LLC$97.5 Mil3.6%38ADD +10.2%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQAs OfFiling
Sachem Head Capital Management LP$205.1 Mil4.8%20ExitedDec 31, 202513F
SRS Investment Management, LLC$48.6 Mil0.5%31ExitedDec 31, 202513F
8 Knots Management, LLC$40.9 Mil4.7%12ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Iron Triangle Partners LP$34.3 Mil3.9%27ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Benson Investment Management Company, Inc.$5.9 Mil2.1%50ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Atle Fund Management AB$9.3 Mil3.0%39TRIM -77.7%Mar 31, 202613F
Sector Gamma AS$9.7 Mil2.3%42TRIM -23.8%Mar 31, 202613F
Hamlin Capital Management, LLC$118.0 Mil2.8%30TRIM -19.0%Mar 31, 202613F
Kiltearn Partners LLP$26.2 Mil7.1%25TRIM -17.4%Mar 31, 202613F
Solel Partners LP$35.5 Mil7.6%19TRIM -16.8%Mar 31, 202613F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Glenview Capital Management, LLC$588.7 Mil15.9%41Hold13F
Fairfax Financial Holdings LTD/ Can$194.8 Mil10.0%29Hold13F
Hamlin Capital Management, LLC$118.0 Mil2.8%30TRIM -19.0%13F
Patient Capital Management, LLC$97.5 Mil3.6%38ADD +10.2%13F
Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc.$75.3 Mil2.4%44ADD +28.4%13F
SRB Corp$36.3 Mil2.2%44Hold13F
Solel Partners LP$35.5 Mil7.6%19TRIM -16.8%13F
Kiltearn Partners LLP$26.2 Mil7.1%25TRIM -17.4%13F
MFF Capital Investments Ltd$25.9 Mil1.7%19ADD +17.2%13F
Park West Asset Management LLC$12.7 Mil1.1%48ADD +20.1%13F
Colrain Capital LLC$10.7 Mil4.1%26ADD +21.6%13F
Sector Gamma AS$9.7 Mil2.3%42TRIM -23.8%13F
Atle Fund Management AB$9.3 Mil3.0%39TRIM -77.7%13F
Permit Capital, LLC$9.0 Mil3.1%19Hold13F
Legacy CG, LLC$5.7 Mil1.6%45Hold13F

CVS Trade Sentinel


Stock Conviction

Neutral / Watch

CONVICTION RATIONALE

While 2026 operational execution is strong, with an improved insurance margin and a raised earnings forecast, this is overshadowed by a major strategic pivot. The plan to split the company and a guided 2027 earnings trough for the Health Services segment create significant uncertainty, warranting a neutral stance until the future path is clearer.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
Hybrid (Recurring Service & Transactional Product)

A composite of (Number of Members x Premiums/Fees) for the benefits business, plus (Volume of Claims x Price/Fee) for the PBM, plus (Retail Volume x Price) for the pharmacy and consumer segment. Profitability is driven by spreads achieved through scale and negotiation: the medical loss ratio in insurance, the net cost of drugs in the PBM, and gross margins on retail products.

Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Can splitting into two focused companies unlock value the integrated model could not?

The strategic separation announced Nov. 4, 2026, aims to create two more agile, focused businesses from a position of operational strength.

Mechanism: The plan, targeted for H1 2028, is to create a healthcare solutions company for a $2T+ market and a retail pharmacy company for a $500B+ market.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Company announced intention to separate into two independent companies by H1 2028.
  • Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance was raised to at least $8.20.
  • Operating margin expanded to 3.6% from 2.7% over the last twelve months.
  • Management provided a preliminary 2027 adjusted EPS floor of at least $8.65.
PRIMARY RISK
Execution Risk and a Guided Trough

The complex separation introduces dis-synergy risks, while management has guided that 2027 will be a 'trough earnings' year for the Health Services segment, a major profit driver.

Mechanism: Formal 2027 guidance on Feb. 8, 2027, confirming segment-level weakness or revealing unexpected separation costs.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Management stated 2027 will reflect 'trough earnings' for the Health Services segment.
  • The PBM business is 'trending to a retention rate that's slightly lower than our historical performance'.
  • The stock reacted -13.0% to the separation announcement and forward outlook.
  • PBM business practices face numerous investigations from the DOJ, FTC, and state Attorneys General.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Status Rationale
Medical Benefit Ratio (MBR)91.3% for the three months ended September 30, 2026 - Turning aroundThe successful execution of the company's margin recovery plan in the Health Care Benefits segment led to a year-over-year improvement, driven by better performance in the Government business. Management has expressed confidence in its progress toward target margins.
Same-Store Prescription Volume Growth (Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness)3.9% year-over-year growth for the three months ended September 30, 2026 - DeceleratingWhile same-store prescription volume continues to grow, the pace has moderated significantly from the higher single-digit rates seen in late 2025 and early 2026. This indicates a slowdown in organic growth momentum within the retail pharmacy business.
Total Medical Membership26.1 million (as of September 30, 2026)Indicates the scale of the Health Care Benefits segment's insurance and administrative services operations.
Pharmacy Claims Processed (30-day equivalent)481.7 million (for the three months ended September 30, 2026)Measures the volume of prescription claims managed by the Health Services (PBM) segment, a primary driver of its revenue and profitability.
Prescriptions Filled (30-day equivalent)470.0 million (for the three months ended September 30, 2026)Measures the prescription volume dispensed by the Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness segment, a key driver of its pharmacy revenue.
Core Investment Debate

Strategic Value Unlock vs. Near-Term Disruption

BULL VIEW

The split is a decisive move to create two nimbler companies, evidenced by strong 2026 execution and a raised EPS outlook of at least $8.20.

CORE TENSION

Can the long-term value from two focused companies outweigh the near-term uncertainty from a guided 2027 earnings trough and significant separation risk?


PREVAILING SENTIMENT
NEUTRAL

The market's sharp -13.0% reaction suggests near-term risks and strategic uncertainty are currently outweighing the potential long-term benefits of the separation.

BEAR VIEW

The split signals the prior integrated strategy failed, creating execution risk and a guided 2027 earnings trough for the large Health Services segment.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
1/25/2027
Peer Medical Cost Read-Through
Watch: Peer commentary on medical cost trends and MBR outlooks, which could negatively reset expectations for CVS's upcoming report.
1/26/2027
Elevance Health Earnings
Watch: Peer Elevance Health (ELV) scheduled to report earnings.
2/3/2027
Cigna Earnings
Watch: Peer Cigna (CI) scheduled to report earnings.
2/8/2027
Disappointing 2027 Guidance
Watch: Formal 2027 guidance, particularly segment-level details for Health Services and the MBR outlook for Health Care Benefits.
2/8/2027
Q4 Earnings and Guidance
Watch: Company to report Q4 2026 earnings and provide formal 2027 guidance.
No set date
Adverse FTC Settlement Order
Watch: The final FTC order, which could contain stricter terms or penalties than anticipated, impacting PBM operations and profitability.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
2026-11-04
Announced Plan to Separate
Details: The company announced its intent to separate into two publicly traded companies, raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $8.20, and reported a -13.0% stock reaction.
-12.5%
$91.41 -> $79.96
2026-11-04
Proposed FTC Settlement
Details: The company and the FTC announced a proposed settlement agreement that would resolve all outstanding investigations related to the company's PBM and affiliated pharmacy businesses.
-12.5%
$91.41 -> $79.96
2026-10-20
MinuteClinic Expansion
Details: The company opened three new MinuteClinic retail medical clinics in Massachusetts, including the first location in Boston, to expand access to healthcare services.
+0.8%
$92.02 -> $92.79
2026-08-17
Board Changes Announced
Details: The company announced the appointment of Teresa Heitsenrether to the Board and the departure of Larry Robbins after two years.
-2.3%
$96.47 -> $94.23
2026-08-05
Negative Q2 Earnings Reaction
Details: The stock reacted negatively to the second quarter earnings report, declining 8.0% over the two-day period around the announcement.
-7.9%
$103.68 -> $95.54
2026-05-07
Positive Q1 Earnings Reaction
Details: The market reacted positively to the company's first quarter earnings report, with the stock gaining 4.0% over the two-day period around the announcement.
+4.2%
$85.71 -> $89.35
Risk Management
Position Sizing

4% - 6%

NORMAL POSITION

Sizing is volatility-based: CVS trades at roughly 26% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (2.7x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.

Diversification Alternatives
UNH - UnitedHealth Group
Integrated Model Leader

UNH demonstrates a more profitable integrated model, with a 5.3% operating margin versus 3.6% for CVS, and is not undergoing a disruptive strategic separation.

Core Thesis: A play on a proven, high-margin integrated healthcare provider that continues to execute on its existing strategy.
WMT - Walmart
Retail Pharmacy Competitor

As a key competitor in retail pharmacy, Walmart's scale and focus on price may offer a more defensive position against pressures on pharmacy reimbursement.

Core Thesis: Exposure to the stable pharmacy dispensing market through a dominant, low-cost retailer with a different business mix.
How Is The Market Pricing CVS?

An integrated healthcare giant deconstructing itself to unlock value, separating its high-growth health solutions arm from its stable, cash-generating retail pharmacy empire.

CVS is leveraging its massive scale across insurance, PBM, and retail to manage healthcare costs. After a period of integration and performance recovery, particularly in its Aetna insurance arm, management has announced a plan to split the company. This move aims to create two more focused entities: one centered on high-growth healthcare solutions (benefits, PBM, care delivery) and another on the resilient, cash-flow-heavy retail and community pharmacy business. The success of this strategic pivot will depend on executing the complex separation while navigating significant regulatory pressures in its core markets.

What will confirm the thesis

Sustained margin improvement in the Health Care Benefits segment, a strong PBM selling season for 2028, and a smooth, on-schedule execution of the company separation.

What will damage the thesis

Significant adverse changes to Medicare Advantage reimbursement rates, major PBM client losses, or material dissynergies and execution costs arising from the planned separation.

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Minor changes in front-store product assortment, individual store closures or openings, or collaborations on wellness initiatives.

Repricing Catalyst

The November 4, 2026 announcement of the plan to separate into two independent, publicly traded companies, expected to be completed in the first half of 2028.

What CVS Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on the twelve months through fiscal Q2 2026
Health Care Benefits
$145.8B TTM (35% of Total)
What It Is

Offers a broad range of traditional, voluntary, and consumer-directed health insurance products and related services, including medical, pharmacy, dental, and behavioral health plans, as well as Medicare Advantage, Medicare Supplement, and Medicaid plans. Customers include employer groups, government-sponsored plans, and individuals.

Who Pays & How

Employers, government agencies (like CMS), and individuals write checks for premiums to provide or obtain access to a broad network of healthcare providers and to manage medical costs.

Primarily fixed premiums for insured products, established in advance for a one-year policy period. Also earns fees for administrative services contracts (ASC) where the plan sponsor assumes most of the risk.
Competition
Other large commercial health insurers, Blue Cross and Blue Shield Association licensees, and for Medicare products, Original Medicare. Peers named in sources include UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Cigna (CI), and Elevance Health (ELV).
The segment's moat is based on the breadth and quality of its provider networks (approximately 2.0 million participating providers as of year-end 2025), quality of service, and cost-effectiveness.
Health Services
$200.5B TTM (48% of Total)
What It Is

Provides a full range of Pharmacy Benefit Management (PBM) solutions (CVS Caremark), including plan design, formulary management, and claims processing. It also delivers health care services through medical clinics (Oak Street Health), in-home health evaluations (Signify Health), and virtually. Clients are primarily employers, insurance companies, unions, and government employee groups.

Who Pays & How

Health plan sponsors (employers, insurers, government entities) pay for PBM services to control prescription drug costs through negotiated discounts with manufacturers and pharmacies. The segment also generates revenue from the sale and management of prescription drugs.

A mix of service fees for PBM administration and revenue from the sale of prescription drugs through specialty and mail order pharmacies. Also operates value-based care models with health plans and CMS.
Competition
Large national PBMs, including those owned by health plans like Express Scripts (Cigna) and Optum Rx (UnitedHealth Group).
The segment's competitive advantage stems from its ability to negotiate favorable discounts from drug manufacturers and retail pharmacy networks, its scale (managing 1.9 billion prescriptions annually as of year-end 2025), and its effective cost management programs.
Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness
$139.7B TTM (34% of Total)
What It Is

Dispenses prescriptions and sells a wide assortment of health/wellness products and general merchandise through approximately 9,000 retail locations (CVS Pharmacy) and online. Pharmacy revenues constitute the majority of the segment's sales.

Who Pays & How

Third-party payors (PBMs, managed care organizations, government programs) pay for the majority of prescription revenues. Consumers pay directly for front-store merchandise and for prescription co-pays.

Transactional revenue from the sale of prescription drugs and front-store merchandise. The company is transitioning its pharmacy reimbursement to a cost-plus model (a company initiative).
Competition
Other drugstore chains (e.g., Walgreens), supermarkets, discount retailers (e.g., Walmart), independent pharmacies, and online retailers (e.g., Amazon).
The segment competes on the basis of store location and convenience, customer service, product selection, and price, leveraging its vast physical footprint of approximately 9,000 retail locations.
Corporate/Other
$528M TTM (0% of Total)
What It Is

Consists of management and administrative expenses to support overall operations, as well as legacy products for which the company no longer solicits new customers, such as large case pensions and long-term care insurance.

Who Pays & How

This segment primarily reflects corporate overhead and is not a primary revenue-generating operation.

Competition
CVS Evolution: Price Return by Era
2021-2025 · Integrated Health Services Expansion
+33%
Over the past five years, CVS has significantly scaled its Health Services and Health Care Benefits segments. This outpaced the growth in the more mature Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness segment, shifting the company's center of gravity toward managed care and PBM services.
Announced November 2026 · Strategic Separation
+3%
Following a strategic review, the company announced its intention to separate into two independent, publicly traded companies. This move is intended to create two more focused and agile businesses.
Market Appears To Be Acting Against Core Thesis
Price structure is in a downtrend. Multiple SMA levels broken and declining. Thesis requires reclaiming 200D before any bull case is credible. Relative to SPY: Lagging the market on the 63D window, but 'relative strength' is beginning to stabilize; watch for inflection. Volume and momentum are deeply bearish. The sustained distribution is evident across multiple volume metrics. Earnings history is clearly negative. The market punished the print and the drift confirms distribution. Thesis is under pressure.
① Structure
-4
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
-3
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
-2
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
-9 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Broken In Short Term · - ▾
2 Momentum Deteriorating ▾
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Mild Underperformance ▾
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Neutral / Mixed ▾
5 Volatility Expanded ▾
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Rising ▾
7 Earnings Reaction History Inconsistent ▾
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars ▾
Core Cache Last Updated: 11/5/2026