Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -93%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -114%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 92%
1 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 11%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 138x
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 49%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.3%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Sustainable Packaging Materials, Show more.
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.7%
4   Key risks
DOW key risks include [1] a securities class action lawsuit alleging misleading disclosures about declining sales and product oversupply, Show more.
0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31%
1 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 11%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 49%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Sustainable Packaging Materials, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -93%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -114%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 92%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 138x
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.3%
8 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.7%
9 Key risks
DOW key risks include [1] a securities class action lawsuit alleging misleading disclosures about declining sales and product oversupply, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

DOW Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Mixed Q3 2025 Earnings Report. Dow's third-quarter 2025 financial results, reported in late October, showed a mixed performance. While earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.19 surpassed the forecast of -$0.31, net sales of $10 billion were below the anticipated $10.22 billion. Despite an initial stock surge in pre-market trading following the EPS beat, aftermarket trading saw a slight decline, reflecting investor concerns over the revenue shortfall.

2. Ongoing Industry Downturn and Weak Demand. Throughout the latter half of 2025, Dow continued to contend with a prolonged industry downcycle characterized by oversupply, global demand uncertainty, and low consumer confidence. This challenging macroeconomic backdrop and persistent pressures in the chemical sector likely contributed to a decline in stock value.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
DOW Return8%7%-7%15%-23%-39%-42%
Peers Return15%19%-15%29%-17%-21%-1%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
DOW Win Rate67%42%58%42%42%25% 
Peers Win Rate67%58%52%43%42%47% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
DOW Max Drawdown-59%-6%-21%-2%-25%-46% 
Peers Max Drawdown-56%-5%-31%-5%-24%-40% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LYB, DD, EMN, CE, WLK. See DOW Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventDOWS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-38.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven62.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-59.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven148.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven247 days148 days

Compare to APD, DD, EMN, CE, HUN


In The Past

Dow's stock fell -38.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/4/2022. A -38.5% loss requires a 62.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Dow (DOW)

Better Bets than Dow (DOW)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to DOW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
42.2%42.2%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.5%
DOW_9302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302022DOWDowDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
28.1%23.8%-0.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
42.2%42.2%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.5%
DOW_9302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302022DOWDowDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
28.1%23.8%-0.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Dow

Peers to compare with:

Financials

DOWLYBDDEMNCEWLKMedian
NameDow Lyondell.DuPont d.Eastman .Celanese Westlake  
Mkt Price23.0743.7640.6063.9341.5773.9842.66
Mkt Cap16.414.117.07.34.69.511.8
Rev LTM40,91335,15413,5189,0249,71011,48012,499
Op Inc LTM4721,5232,1431,190856331,023
FCF LTM-1,1204631,3163951,024-365429
FCF 3Y Avg9032,082658511965544780
CFO LTM1,5622,3572,0641,0081,3886741,475
CFO 3Y Avg3,6453,8501,9861,1951,4331,5751,780

Growth & Margins

DOWLYBDDEMNCEWLKMedian
NameDow Lyondell.DuPont d.Eastman .Celanese Westlake  
Rev Chg LTM-5.3%-6.3%14.0%-3.4%-7.3%-5.3%-5.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-11.3%-12.9%1.3%-5.9%0.7%-10.3%-8.1%
Rev Chg Q-8.3%-11.8%7.3%-10.6%-8.6%-9.0%-8.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.2%-2.8%1.6%-2.8%-2.3%-2.4%-2.3%
Op Mgn LTM1.2%4.3%15.9%13.2%8.8%0.3%6.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.5%6.9%14.9%12.6%9.5%6.6%8.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.5%-1.8%0.1%-1.2%-0.6%-2.3%-0.9%
CFO/Rev LTM3.8%6.7%15.3%11.2%14.3%5.9%8.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg8.3%9.9%15.9%12.9%13.9%12.6%12.8%
FCF/Rev LTM-2.7%1.3%9.7%4.4%10.5%-3.2%2.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg1.9%5.2%5.2%5.5%9.4%4.1%5.2%

Valuation

DOWLYBDDEMNCEWLKMedian
NameDow Lyondell.DuPont d.Eastman .Celanese Westlake  
Mkt Cap16.414.117.07.34.69.511.8
P/S0.40.42.40.80.50.90.6
P/EBIT138.327.546.36.7-2.2-14.617.1
P/E-14.460.5-42.310.3-1.5-10.3-5.9
P/CFO10.46.715.87.23.314.78.8
Total Yield3.7%12.7%-0.3%12.3%-65.0%-8.3%1.7%
Dividend Yield10.6%11.1%2.1%2.6%1.9%1.4%2.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.2%7.2%1.9%5.3%11.8%2.8%4.1%
D/E1.20.80.30.72.90.50.8
Net D/E0.90.70.20.62.60.30.7

Returns

DOWLYBDDEMNCEWLKMedian
NameDow Lyondell.DuPont d.Eastman .Celanese Westlake  
1M Rtn8.0%3.3%5.6%12.7%12.6%26.4%10.3%
3M Rtn-4.6%-15.9%32.9%-1.9%-7.8%-14.2%-6.2%
6M Rtn-16.7%-21.4%53.4%-12.2%-23.5%5.5%-14.4%
12M Rtn-38.9%-36.3%29.4%-29.9%-39.1%-35.4%-35.8%
3Y Rtn-44.6%-33.5%58.8%-12.7%-57.1%-24.4%-28.9%
1M Excs Rtn7.3%2.6%4.8%11.9%11.8%25.7%9.6%
3M Excs Rtn-4.2%-15.9%29.3%-3.9%-9.9%-13.5%-7.1%
6M Excs Rtn-29.0%-33.8%41.1%-24.6%-35.9%-6.9%-26.8%
12M Excs Rtn-50.4%-47.6%17.2%-42.6%-50.3%-47.5%-47.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-114.5%-103.8%-14.0%-84.6%-127.1%-96.3%-100.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Packaging & Specialty Plastics23,14929,26028,12818,30120,245
Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure12,53816,60616,85112,02113,440
Performance Materials & Coatings8,49710,7649,6727,9518,923
Corporate438272317269343
Total44,62256,90254,96838,54242,951


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Packaging & Specialty Plastics28,69230,01730,55630,06929,522
Performance Materials & Coatings12,08013,02813,81013,91514,059
Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure11,99312,88313,75012,22011,753
Corporate5,2024,6754,8745,2665,190
Total57,96760,60362,99061,47060,524


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity34,578,141
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520259.2%
Average Daily Volume13,154,453
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.63
Basic Shares Quantity711,800,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.9%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/23/202512.9%14.6%-3.5%
7/24/2025-17.5%-21.2%-22.0%
4/24/20252.6%5.5%-1.1%
1/30/2025-6.1%-7.6%-5.4%
10/24/2024-1.0%-4.2%-13.0%
7/25/2024-0.9%2.2%-1.4%
4/25/2024-0.9%0.4%-0.1%
1/25/20243.5%1.0%6.2%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111312
# Negative131112
Median Positive2.6%3.6%5.9%
Median Negative-2.1%-4.2%-3.3%
Max Positive12.9%14.6%14.0%
Max Negative-17.5%-21.2%-22.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251024202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025725202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025425202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024204202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241025202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024726202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023131202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231025202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023726202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023426202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022201202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221021202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022722202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022422202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021204202210-K 12/31/2021