Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 6.1%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.7%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.5%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more.
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -72%
 
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 6.1%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more.
2 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.7%
3 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -72%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.5%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AA Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The stock of Alcoa (AA) for the approximate time period from August 2025 to December 2025 could have experienced a significant increase of 41.7% due to several key factors influencing the global aluminum market and the company's operational performance.

1. Robust Global Demand for Aluminum: Global aluminum demand is projected to continue growing, particularly driven by key sectors such as electric vehicles (EVs), transportation, and sustainable packaging. For instance, the transportation sector's demand for aluminum is expected to rise significantly due to the increasing adoption of EVs and lightweighting initiatives in vehicle manufacturing. The global aluminum market size is forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.17% from 2024 through 2032.

2. Favorable Aluminum and Alumina Price Trends: While there were periods of declining alumina prices impacting Alcoa's earnings in early to mid-2025, the long-term outlook for both aluminum and alumina prices is positive. Aluminum prices were noted to be trading above their historical average in late 2025. Furthermore, alumina prices began to normalize in 2025, and anticipated deficits in the broader aluminum market are expected to support higher prices through 2026.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AA Return7%159%-23%-24%12%24%125%
Peers Return12%28%-18%39%0%56%154%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AA Win Rate67%75%42%42%50%67% 
Peers Win Rate58%54%44%54%48%73% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AA Max Drawdown-75%-22%-43%-48%-25%-40% 
Peers Max Drawdown-55%-10%-39%-14%-22%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CSTM, CENX, KALU, RS. See AA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/15/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-75.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven306.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-74.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven292.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven256 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-72.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven260.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven860 days120 days

Compare to PAAS, ATI, MLI, KALU, AA


In The Past

Alcoa's stock fell -75.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/24/2022. A -75.4% loss requires a 306.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Alcoa (AA)

Interactive Breakdown

Alcoa Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Better Bets than Alcoa (AA)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.7%6.7%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.8%0.8%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
40.6%40.6%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
17.4%17.4%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.7%4.7%-2.5%
AA_9302022_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG09302022AAAlcoaDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
27.0%-12.8%-22.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.7%6.7%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.8%0.8%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
40.6%40.6%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
17.4%17.4%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.7%4.7%-2.5%
AA_9302022_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG09302022AAAlcoaDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
27.0%-12.8%-22.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Alcoa

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AACSTMCENXKALURSMedian
NameAlcoa Constell.Century .Kaiser A.Reliance  
Mkt Price45.4918.3831.39109.91291.8845.49
Mkt Cap11.82.52.91.815.32.9
Rev LTM12,8687,9692,5253,20913,9227,969
Op Inc LTM1,337344174144982344
FCF LTM519-40-381366213
FCF 3Y Avg-59-16-4251,073-16
CFO LTM1,063332411751,029332
CFO 3Y Avg493362441691,488362

Growth & Margins

AACSTMCENXKALURSMedian
NameAlcoa Constell.Century .Kaiser A.Reliance  
Rev Chg LTM16.9%6.5%20.1%7.7%-0.9%7.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg0.5%-1.4%-2.9%-2.2%-7.0%-2.2%
Rev Chg Q3.1%20.2%17.3%12.8%6.8%12.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.7%4.8%3.8%3.1%1.7%3.1%
Op Mgn LTM10.4%4.3%6.9%4.5%7.1%6.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.2%4.4%3.5%3.5%9.6%3.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.8%0.9%-0.5%1.0%-0.2%-0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM8.3%4.2%1.6%5.5%7.4%5.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg4.0%4.6%2.0%5.4%10.3%4.6%
FCF/Rev LTM4.0%-0.5%-1.5%0.4%4.8%0.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-0.8%-0.2%-1.9%0.2%7.4%-0.2%

Valuation

AACSTMCENXKALURSMedian
NameAlcoa Constell.Century .Kaiser A.Reliance  
Mkt Cap11.82.52.91.815.32.9
P/S0.70.31.10.41.10.7
P/EBIT5.66.723.88.013.48.0
P/E7.418.332.214.720.218.3
P/CFO8.06.267.17.114.38.0
Total Yield14.7%5.5%3.1%7.8%6.7%6.7%
Dividend Yield1.2%0.0%0.0%1.0%1.7%1.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-1.9%-0.8%-4.4%0.5%7.0%-0.8%
D/E0.31.00.20.90.10.3
Net D/E0.11.00.20.80.10.2

Returns

AACSTMCENXKALURSMedian
NameAlcoa Constell.Century .Kaiser A.Reliance  
1M Rtn21.0%19.2%9.1%20.5%8.0%19.2%
3M Rtn35.8%21.2%20.6%43.3%0.8%21.2%
6M Rtn57.8%36.7%70.7%46.7%-3.7%46.7%
12M Rtn17.8%64.7%50.4%50.0%1.6%50.0%
3Y Rtn10.4%62.9%329.4%61.9%52.0%61.9%
1M Excs Rtn17.9%16.3%6.9%16.3%6.0%16.3%
3M Excs Rtn33.1%19.5%17.3%39.8%-2.2%19.5%
6M Excs Rtn44.8%23.7%57.7%33.7%-16.7%33.7%
12M Excs Rtn4.5%44.9%33.3%32.5%-15.1%32.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-72.2%-14.1%214.1%-18.5%-25.7%-18.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Aluminum6,9408,7628,7846,3776,820
Alumina5,2615,4324,7253,8954,811
Other13-8112283
Elimination of intersegment sales-1,663-1,735-2,315-2,221-2,557
Bauxite  9471,2131,276
Total10,55112,45112,1529,28610,433


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Alumina6,1535,8594,3854,3334,303
Aluminum5,8546,3586,2516,2146,588
Cash and cash equivalents9441,3631,8141,607879
Corporate fixed assets, net392364374453519
Other371355222182291
Deferred income taxes333296506655642
Corporate goodwill142141140141145
Pension assets125146164  
Elimination of intersegment receivables-159-126-261-193-170
Bauxite  1,4301,4681,434
Total14,15514,75615,02514,86014,631


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,936,614
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520255.0%
Average Daily Volume5,423,729
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.28
Basic Shares Quantity259,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/22/202512.6%9.1%0.8%
7/16/20252.9%12.4%10.1%
4/16/2025-7.0%5.5%17.3%
1/22/2025-3.7%-9.4%-11.3%
10/16/2024-4.1%-0.5%-1.8%
7/10/20241.9%-4.3%-20.4%
4/17/2024-0.2%1.5%12.9%
1/17/2024-1.6%9.5%0.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive81515
# Negative1699
Median Positive3.2%6.0%17.3%
Median Negative-5.0%-10.1%-11.3%
Max Positive15.2%14.8%31.0%
Max Negative-16.9%-19.5%-28.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251028202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024802202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022725202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021