Alcoa (AA)
Market Price (12/16/2025): $45.39 | Market Cap: $11.8 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Aluminum
Alcoa (AA)
Market Price (12/16/2025): $45.39Market Cap: $11.8 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Aluminum
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 6.1% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.7% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.5% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -72% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 6.1% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.7% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -72% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.5% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of Alcoa (AA) for the approximate time period from August 2025 to December 2025 could have experienced a significant increase of 41.7% due to several key factors influencing the global aluminum market and the company's operational performance.
1. Robust Global Demand for Aluminum: Global aluminum demand is projected to continue growing, particularly driven by key sectors such as electric vehicles (EVs), transportation, and sustainable packaging. For instance, the transportation sector's demand for aluminum is expected to rise significantly due to the increasing adoption of EVs and lightweighting initiatives in vehicle manufacturing. The global aluminum market size is forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.17% from 2024 through 2032.
2. Favorable Aluminum and Alumina Price Trends: While there were periods of declining alumina prices impacting Alcoa's earnings in early to mid-2025, the long-term outlook for both aluminum and alumina prices is positive. Aluminum prices were noted to be trading above their historical average in late 2025. Furthermore, alumina prices began to normalize in 2025, and anticipated deficits in the broader aluminum market are expected to support higher prices through 2026.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AA Return | 7% | 159% | -23% | -24% | 12% | 24% | 125% |
| Peers Return | 12% | 28% | -18% | 39% | 0% | 56% | 154% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AA Win Rate | 67% | 75% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 54% | 44% | 54% | 48% | 73% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AA Max Drawdown | -75% | -22% | -43% | -48% | -25% | -40% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -55% | -10% | -39% | -14% | -22% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CSTM, CENX, KALU, RS. See AA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/15/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -75.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 306.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -74.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 292.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 256 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -72.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 260.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 860 days | 120 days |
Compare to PAAS, ATI, MLI, KALU, AA
In The Past
Alcoa's stock fell -75.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/24/2022. A -75.4% loss requires a 306.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Alcoa Earnings Notes | |||
| Alcoa Stock Jump Looks Great, But How Secure Is That Gain? | Return | ||
| Alcoa vs United Airlines: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| How Does Alcoa Stock Compare With Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| AA Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Alcoa Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 13.4% in 2024 and -12.0% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
| Alcoa (AA) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Alcoa (AA) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Alcoa (AA) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Alcoa (AA) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Why Did Alcoa Stock Jump 40%? | November 14th, 2025 | ||
| How Will Alcoa Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? | October 20th, 2025 | ||
| What’s Happening With Alcoa Stock? | September 30th, 2025 | ||
| How Alcoa Stock Can Fall 50%? | August 28th, 2025 | ||
| How Will Alcoa Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? | July 10th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.7% | 6.7% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 40.6% | 40.6% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.4% | 17.4% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.7% | 4.7% | -2.5% |
| 09302022 | AA | Alcoa | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 27.0% | -12.8% | -22.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.7% | 6.7% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 40.6% | 40.6% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.4% | 17.4% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.7% | 4.7% | -2.5% |
| 09302022 | AA | Alcoa | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 27.0% | -12.8% | -22.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Alcoa
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 45.49 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.9 |
| Rev LTM | 7,969 |
| Op Inc LTM | 344 |
| FCF LTM | 13 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -16 |
| CFO LTM | 332 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 362 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -2.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 0.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.9 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/EBIT | 8.0 |
| P/E | 18.3 |
| P/CFO | 8.0 |
| Total Yield | 6.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.8% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 19.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 21.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 46.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 50.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 61.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 16.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 19.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 33.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 32.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -18.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminum | 6,940 | 8,762 | 8,784 | 6,377 | 6,820 |
| Alumina | 5,261 | 5,432 | 4,725 | 3,895 | 4,811 |
| Other | 13 | -8 | 11 | 22 | 83 |
| Elimination of intersegment sales | -1,663 | -1,735 | -2,315 | -2,221 | -2,557 |
| Bauxite | 947 | 1,213 | 1,276 | ||
| Total | 10,551 | 12,451 | 12,152 | 9,286 | 10,433 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alumina | 6,153 | 5,859 | 4,385 | 4,333 | 4,303 |
| Aluminum | 5,854 | 6,358 | 6,251 | 6,214 | 6,588 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 944 | 1,363 | 1,814 | 1,607 | 879 |
| Corporate fixed assets, net | 392 | 364 | 374 | 453 | 519 |
| Other | 371 | 355 | 222 | 182 | 291 |
| Deferred income taxes | 333 | 296 | 506 | 655 | 642 |
| Corporate goodwill | 142 | 141 | 140 | 141 | 145 |
| Pension assets | 125 | 146 | 164 | ||
| Elimination of intersegment receivables | -159 | -126 | -261 | -193 | -170 |
| Bauxite | 1,430 | 1,468 | 1,434 | ||
| Total | 14,155 | 14,756 | 15,025 | 14,860 | 14,631 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/22/2025 | 12.6% | 9.1% | 0.8% |
| 7/16/2025 | 2.9% | 12.4% | 10.1% |
| 4/16/2025 | -7.0% | 5.5% | 17.3% |
| 1/22/2025 | -3.7% | -9.4% | -11.3% |
| 10/16/2024 | -4.1% | -0.5% | -1.8% |
| 7/10/2024 | 1.9% | -4.3% | -20.4% |
| 4/17/2024 | -0.2% | 1.5% | 12.9% |
| 1/17/2024 | -1.6% | 9.5% | 0.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 15 | 15 |
| # Negative | 16 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.2% | 6.0% | 17.3% |
| Median Negative | -5.0% | -10.1% | -11.3% |
| Max Positive | 15.2% | 14.8% | 31.0% |
| Max Negative | -16.9% | -19.5% | -28.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7252022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
