National Beverage (FIZZ)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $32.62 | Market Cap: $3.1 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages
National Beverage (FIZZ)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $32.62Market Cap: $3.1 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -76%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -102% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.0% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20% | Key risksFIZZ key risks include [1] its challenge in achieving volume growth, Show more. | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, and Organic & Natural Products. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, and Organic & Natural Products. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -76%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -102% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.0% |
| Key risksFIZZ key risks include [1] its challenge in achieving volume growth, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
FIZZ Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Missed Second Quarter Earnings and Revenue Expectations.
National Beverage (FIZZ) reported second-quarter earnings for fiscal 2026 that fell short of analyst expectations, with earnings per share of $0.50 against an estimated $0.51. Revenue also missed consensus, coming in at $288 million compared to an estimated $304.31 million, marking a 1% year-over-year decline.
2. Decline in Volume Sales.
The company experienced a 6.0% decrease in case volume during the second quarter of fiscal 2026, which indicates potential market share loss or increased competition despite improvements in average selling price per case.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FIZZ Return | 77% | 13% | 3% | 7% | -8% | -22% | 58% |
| Peers Return | 203% | 20% | 12% | 12% | -12% | 24% | 397% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FIZZ Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 42% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 58% | 50% | 53% | 45% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FIZZ Max Drawdown | -27% | -7% | -15% | -9% | -12% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -11% | -19% | -15% | -19% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PEP, KO, KDP, MNST, CELH. See FIZZ Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FIZZ | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -57.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 135.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -27.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 17 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -68.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 216.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 518 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -53.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 116.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 786 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to KO, PEP, KDP, COKE, CELH
In The Past
National Beverage's stock fell -57.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/27/2021. A -57.5% loss requires a 135.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FIZZ. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.9% | -5.9% | -7.5% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.4% | 15.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.7% | 6.7% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.7% | -3.7% | -5.1% |
| 09302020 | FIZZ | National Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 53.1% | 64.3% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.9% | -5.9% | -7.5% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.4% | 15.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.7% | 6.7% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.7% | -3.7% | -5.1% |
| 09302020 | FIZZ | National Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 53.1% | 64.3% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for National Beverage
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 55.75 |
| Mkt Cap | 55.3 |
| Rev LTM | 12,075 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,866 |
| FCF LTM | 1,772 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,489 |
| CFO LTM | 2,154 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,872 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 55.3 |
| P/S | 4.4 |
| P/EBIT | 19.0 |
| P/E | 24.3 |
| P/CFO | 22.4 |
| Total Yield | 5.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 7.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 2.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -14.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -4.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -70.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 12/12/2025 | |||
| 9/12/2025 | -1.4% | -2.9% | -7.6% |
| 7/3/2025 | 4.0% | -1.3% | 4.8% |
| 3/7/2025 | 4.1% | -1.8% | 3.3% |
| 12/6/2024 | 4.2% | 0.8% | -5.9% |
| 9/6/2024 | -0.5% | -1.2% | -0.4% |
| 6/27/2024 | 1.0% | 3.7% | -4.1% |
| 3/8/2024 | -2.5% | -5.5% | -3.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| # Negative | 13 | 14 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 3.5% | 3.3% | 8.0% |
| Median Negative | -1.4% | -2.9% | -3.9% |
| Max Positive | 6.1% | 11.0% | 17.9% |
| Max Negative | -3.8% | -11.0% | -14.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | 12112025 | 10-Q 11/1/2025 |
| 7312025 | 9112025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 7022025 | 10-K 5/3/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3062025 | 10-Q 1/25/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12052024 | 10-Q 10/26/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9052024 | 10-Q 7/27/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6262024 | 10-K 4/27/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3072024 | 10-Q 1/27/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12072023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9072023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6282023 | 10-K 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3092023 | 10-Q 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12082022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9082022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6292022 | 10-K 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3102022 | 10-Q 1/29/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |