Tearsheet

National Beverage (FIZZ)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $35.15 | Market Cap: $3.3 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages

National Beverage (FIZZ)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $35.15
Market Cap: $3.3 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -71%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -99%
 
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, and Organic & Natural Products.
  
0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, and Organic & Natural Products.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -71%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -99%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

FIZZ Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Disappointing Q3 2025 Financial Results: National Beverage reported a year-over-year revenue decline of 1.1% and an 8.29% quarter-over-quarter drop to $267.05 million for Q3 2025, with EPS remaining flat at $0.42 compared to the previous year. Operating income also saw a 12.6% quarter-over-quarter decrease. The company's Q3 earnings and revenue missed analyst estimates. Management attributed the downturn in revenues to broader industry challenges and shifts in consumer purchasing behavior, as well as severe winter weather and Southern California fires impacting demand.

2. Q1 2026 Performance Concerns Despite Record Sales: Although National Beverage announced record net sales of $331 million for the first quarter ended August 2, 2025, the report also highlighted a slight decline in case volume. Furthermore, revenue of $330.52 million fell short of analyst expectations of $354.18 million, contributing to cautious sentiment. The company experienced margin pressures, rising marketing costs, and slower volume growth which collectively pressured near-term performance.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
FIZZ Return77%13%3%7%-8%-18%67%
Peers Return193%46%8%26%-3%19%569%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
FIZZ Win Rate67%50%50%42%42%40% 
Peers Win Rate63%62%47%53%45%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
FIZZ Max Drawdown-27%-7%-15%-9%-12%-24% 
Peers Max Drawdown-30%-10%-20%-15%-17%-14% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KO, PEP, KDP, COKE, CELH. See FIZZ Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventFIZZS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-57.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven135.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-27.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven37.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven17 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-68.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven216.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven518 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-53.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven116.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven786 days1480 days

Compare to KO, PEP, KDP, COKE, CELH


In The Past

National Beverage's stock fell -57.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/27/2021. A -57.5% loss requires a 135.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About National Beverage (FIZZ)

Better Bets than National Beverage (FIZZ)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to FIZZ. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.1%3.1%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.9%-1.9%-1.9%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.3%-5.3%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.5%3.5%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.1%2.1%-5.1%
FIZZ_9302020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302020FIZZNational BeverageDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
53.1%64.3%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.1%3.1%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.9%-1.9%-1.9%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.3%-5.3%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.5%3.5%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.1%2.1%-5.1%
FIZZ_9302020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302020FIZZNational BeverageDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
53.1%64.3%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for National Beverage

Peers to compare with:

Financials

FIZZKOPEPKDPCOKECELHMedian
NameNational.Coca-ColaPepsiCo Keurig D.Coca-Col.Celsius  
Mkt Price35.1570.81148.0628.33164.3842.0056.41
Mkt Cap3.3304.7202.738.514.210.826.4
Rev LTM1,20247,66392,36616,1747,0702,12611,622
Op Inc LTM23714,91412,1933,4759273432,201
FCF LTM1735,5706,7881,5995985241,098
FCF 3Y Avg1656,3846,6451,336531250933
CFO LTM2087,60311,7552,1288915551,510
CFO 3Y Avg1958,33511,9741,8558572731,356

Growth & Margins

FIZZKOPEPKDPCOKECELHMedian
NameNational.Coca-ColaPepsiCo Keurig D.Coca-Col.Celsius  
Rev Chg LTM0.5%2.8%0.5%6.8%4.2%55.1%3.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg1.7%4.0%3.4%5.9%5.5%57.5%4.8%
Rev Chg Q0.3%5.1%2.7%10.7%6.9%172.9%6.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.1%1.3%0.7%2.6%1.8%27.6%1.5%
Op Mgn LTM19.7%31.3%13.2%21.5%13.1%16.1%17.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg18.6%29.7%13.8%21.8%12.9%16.1%17.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.1%0.7%-0.3%0.0%0.1%5.7%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM17.3%16.0%12.7%13.2%12.6%26.1%14.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg16.3%18.1%13.0%12.1%12.6%15.5%14.3%
FCF/Rev LTM14.4%11.7%7.3%9.9%8.5%24.6%10.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg13.9%13.9%7.2%8.7%7.8%14.0%11.3%

Valuation

FIZZKOPEPKDPCOKECELHMedian
NameNational.Coca-ColaPepsiCo Keurig D.Coca-Col.Celsius  
Mkt Cap3.3304.7202.738.514.210.826.4
P/S3.46.02.12.11.47.02.8
P/EBIT17.116.319.012.212.3184.716.7
P/E21.821.926.621.916.6230.221.9
P/CFO19.437.516.416.311.426.717.9
Total Yield4.6%7.5%7.7%6.4%6.9%0.4%6.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%3.0%3.9%1.8%0.9%0.0%1.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.7%2.4%3.1%3.3%6.3%2.1%3.2%
D/E0.00.20.00.50.20.10.1
Net D/E-0.00.10.00.50.00.00.0

Returns

FIZZKOPEPKDPCOKECELHMedian
NameNational.Coca-ColaPepsiCo Keurig D.Coca-Col.Celsius  
1M Rtn5.6%4.9%3.1%6.3%25.5%-29.1%5.3%
3M Rtn-14.8%4.2%0.6%-1.7%40.5%-31.3%-0.6%
6M Rtn-23.4%1.4%14.7%-12.2%53.3%4.8%3.1%
12M Rtn-29.0%14.8%-4.9%-9.8%27.0%44.5%4.9%
3Y Rtn-25.7%20.4%-12.8%-20.7%236.5%7.2%-2.8%
1M Excs Rtn5.7%4.9%3.1%6.4%25.5%-29.1%5.3%
3M Excs Rtn-20.3%-0.1%-3.6%-7.6%32.7%-36.2%-5.6%
6M Excs Rtn-38.2%-13.3%0.0%-27.0%38.6%-10.0%-11.6%
12M Excs Rtn-42.4%0.2%-19.5%-24.1%13.5%34.1%-9.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-99.0%-48.3%-84.2%-92.4%181.1%-55.9%-70.1%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,242,024
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-24.5%
Average Daily Volume415,532
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.40
Basic Shares Quantity93,620,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
7312025911202510-Q 8/2/2025
4302025702202510-K 5/3/2025
1312025306202510-Q 1/25/2025
103120241205202410-Q 10/26/2024
7312024905202410-Q 7/27/2024
4302024626202410-K 4/27/2024
1312024307202410-Q 1/27/2024
103120231207202310-Q 10/28/2023
7312023907202310-Q 7/29/2023
4302023628202310-K 4/29/2023
1312023309202310-Q 1/28/2023
103120221208202210-Q 10/29/2022
7312022908202210-Q 7/30/2022
4302022629202210-K 4/30/2022
1312022310202210-Q 1/29/2022
103120211209202110-Q 10/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0sheridan stanley michael 4172025Sell43.408,000347,2002,708,507Form
1sheridan stanley michael 1032025Sell42.496,100259,2132,991,918Form
2CONLEE CECIL D 12162024Sell47.012,736128,6192,526,505Form