National Beverage (FIZZ)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $35.15 | Market Cap: $3.3 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages
National Beverage (FIZZ)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $35.15Market Cap: $3.3 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -71%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -99% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, and Organic & Natural Products. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, and Organic & Natural Products. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -71%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -99% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
FIZZ Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Disappointing Q3 2025 Financial Results: National Beverage reported a year-over-year revenue decline of 1.1% and an 8.29% quarter-over-quarter drop to $267.05 million for Q3 2025, with EPS remaining flat at $0.42 compared to the previous year. Operating income also saw a 12.6% quarter-over-quarter decrease. The company's Q3 earnings and revenue missed analyst estimates. Management attributed the downturn in revenues to broader industry challenges and shifts in consumer purchasing behavior, as well as severe winter weather and Southern California fires impacting demand.
2. Q1 2026 Performance Concerns Despite Record Sales: Although National Beverage announced record net sales of $331 million for the first quarter ended August 2, 2025, the report also highlighted a slight decline in case volume. Furthermore, revenue of $330.52 million fell short of analyst expectations of $354.18 million, contributing to cautious sentiment. The company experienced margin pressures, rising marketing costs, and slower volume growth which collectively pressured near-term performance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FIZZ Return | 77% | 13% | 3% | 7% | -8% | -18% | 67% |
| Peers Return | 193% | 46% | 8% | 26% | -3% | 19% | 569% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FIZZ Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 42% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 62% | 47% | 53% | 45% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FIZZ Max Drawdown | -27% | -7% | -15% | -9% | -12% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -10% | -20% | -15% | -17% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KO, PEP, KDP, COKE, CELH. See FIZZ Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FIZZ | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -57.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 135.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -27.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 17 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -68.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 216.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 518 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -53.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 116.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 786 days | 1480 days |
Compare to KO, PEP, KDP, COKE, CELH
In The Past
National Beverage's stock fell -57.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/27/2021. A -57.5% loss requires a 135.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FIZZ. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
| 09302020 | FIZZ | National Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 53.1% | 64.3% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
| 09302020 | FIZZ | National Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 53.1% | 64.3% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for National Beverage
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 56.41 |
| Mkt Cap | 26.4 |
| Rev LTM | 11,622 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,201 |
| FCF LTM | 1,098 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 933 |
| CFO LTM | 1,510 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,356 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 26.4 |
| P/S | 2.8 |
| P/EBIT | 16.7 |
| P/E | 21.9 |
| P/CFO | 17.9 |
| Total Yield | 6.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 4.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | -2.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -11.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -9.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -70.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9112025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 7022025 | 10-K 5/3/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3062025 | 10-Q 1/25/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12052024 | 10-Q 10/26/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9052024 | 10-Q 7/27/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6262024 | 10-K 4/27/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3072024 | 10-Q 1/27/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12072023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9072023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6282023 | 10-K 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3092023 | 10-Q 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12082022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9082022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6292022 | 10-K 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3102022 | 10-Q 1/29/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12092021 | 10-Q 10/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |