UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
Market Price (10/15/2026): $395.9 | Market Cap: $357.1 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Health Care | Industry: Managed Health Care
UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
Market Price (10/15/2026): $395.9Market Cap: $357.1 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Managed Health Care
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.2%, Dividend Yield is 2.3%, FCF Yield is 6.6% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 19 Bil Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 27 Bil, FCF LTM is 24 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Telehealth Platforms, Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -65%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -100% | Key risksUNH key risks include [1] intense regulatory scrutiny and antitrust probes targeting its Medicare Advantage and Optum businesses, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.2%, Dividend Yield is 2.3%, FCF Yield is 6.6% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 19 Bil |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 27 Bil, FCF LTM is 24 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Telehealth Platforms, Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -65%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -100% |
| Key risksUNH key risks include [1] intense regulatory scrutiny and antitrust probes targeting its Medicare Advantage and Optum businesses, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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UnitedHealth Group (UNH) stock has lost about 5% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Deteriorating Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and Future Revenue Headwinds. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) 2027 Star Ratings, released on October 8, 2026, indicated a decline in UnitedHealth's average ratings. The percentage of UnitedHealth members in plans with at least 4 stars decreased from 81% in 2026 to 68% for 2027, which is expected to negatively impact the company's Medicare Advantage revenue in 2028. One analyst estimated a potential $1.5 billion revenue headwind from this decline.
2. Decreased Medical Membership. UnitedHealthcare experienced a decline in its overall medical membership, which fell to 48.3 million in fiscal Q3 2026 from 48.5 million in fiscal Q2 2026, and 50.1 million in fiscal Q3 2025. This reduction in membership was partly a strategic move to improve margins by culling unprofitable Medicare Advantage plans, with the company anticipating a loss of over 1 million enrollees in these plans during 2026. Additionally, Optum Health's fiscal Q2 2026 revenues decreased by 5% year-over-year due to approximately 700,000 fewer value-based care patients served.
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UnitedHealth Group (UNH) stock has lost about 5% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Deteriorating Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and Future Revenue Headwinds. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) 2027 Star Ratings, released on October 8, 2026, indicated a decline in UnitedHealth's average ratings. The percentage of UnitedHealth members in plans with at least 4 stars decreased from 81% in 2026 to 68% for 2027, which is expected to negatively impact the company's Medicare Advantage revenue in 2028. One analyst estimated a potential $1.5 billion revenue headwind from this decline.
2. Decreased Medical Membership. UnitedHealthcare experienced a decline in its overall medical membership, which fell to 48.3 million in fiscal Q3 2026 from 48.5 million in fiscal Q2 2026, and 50.1 million in fiscal Q3 2025. This reduction in membership was partly a strategic move to improve margins by culling unprofitable Medicare Advantage plans, with the company anticipating a loss of over 1 million enrollees in these plans during 2026. Additionally, Optum Health's fiscal Q2 2026 revenues decreased by 5% year-over-year due to approximately 700,000 fewer value-based care patients served.
3. Lingering Elevated Commercial Medical Cost Trends. While the company reported overall improvements in its medical care ratio during fiscal Q3 2026, commercial medical costs remained a concern. Trends were noted as stabilizing but still running above UnitedHealth's initial expectations of 11% in fiscal Q3 2026. Factors contributing to these elevated costs included specialty drugs, higher utilization of acute care, and disputes arising from the No Surprises Act's independent dispute resolution process.
4. Analyst Caution and Price Target Adjustment. Ahead of the fiscal Q3 2026 earnings report, at least one analyst, TD Cowen, maintained a "Hold" rating on UnitedHealth Group and reduced its price target from $430 to $402. This adjustment reflected concerns regarding the company's 2027 growth prospects and the anticipated revenue headwind stemming from the lower Medicare Advantage Star Ratings.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -4.2% change in UNH stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -18.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 413.09 | 395.62 | -4.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 449,713 | 450,129 | 0.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.7% | 3.1% | 17.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.1 | 25.3 | -18.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 908 | 902 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -4.2% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UNH | -4.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.1% | -0.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 9.6% | 42.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 47.9% change in UNH stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 25.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 267.41 | 395.62 | 47.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 447,567 | 450,129 | 0.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.7% | 3.1% | 16.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.1 | 25.3 | 25.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 908 | 902 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 47.9% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UNH | 47.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 18.6% | -1.0% |
| Sector (XLV) | 19.2% | 33.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 17.6% change in UNH stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 76.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 336.34 | 395.62 | 17.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 422,818 | 450,129 | 6.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.0% | 3.1% | -37.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.3 | 25.3 | 76.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 907 | 902 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 17.6% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UNH | 17.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.5% | 15.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 26.6% | 38.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -16.4% change in UNH stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -48.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 473.48 | 395.62 | -16.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 348,515 | 450,129 | 29.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.1% | 3.1% | -48.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.9 | 25.3 | 21.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 930 | 902 | 3.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -16.4% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UNH | -16.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.2% | 10.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | 41.5% | 39.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| UNH Return | 45% | 7% | 1% | -2% | -33% | 17% | 19% |
| Peers Return | 33% | 12% | -9% | -26% | 11% | 35% | 49% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| UNH Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 60% | 42% | 45% | 58% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| UNH Max Drawdown | -11% | -17% | -15% | -22% | -60% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -19% | -24% | -37% | -34% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CVS, CI, ELV, HUM, CNC. See UNH Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/14/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | UNH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -35.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 67 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -13.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -11.2% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -20.7% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 148 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -72.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 261.3% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1225 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -12.7% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.6% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 96 days | 47 days |
In The Past
UnitedHealth's stock fell 0.0% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | UNH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -35.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 67 days | 140 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -20.7% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 148 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -72.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 261.3% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1225 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
UnitedHealth's stock fell 0.0% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is a comprehensive and diversified healthcare company operating across multiple segments of the United States healthcare system. A significant portion of its business is through UnitedHealthcare, which offers a wide array of health benefit plans and services. These plans cater to various customers including national, public sector, mid-sized, and small employers, as well as individuals. This segment also manages specialized health coverage for seniors through Medicare plans and participates in government programs like Medicaid and children's health insurance. Complementing this, OptumHealth focuses on direct care delivery, health management services, and connecting individuals to extensive networks of care providers.
Beyond traditional insurance and direct patient care, UNH provides essential support and technology services to the broader healthcare industry. Its OptumInsight segment delivers software products, information services, advisory consulting, and managed services outsourcing contracts. These offerings assist a diverse clientele including hospital systems, physicians, other health plans, governments, and life sciences companies in optimizing their operations and improving outcomes. Furthermore, the OptumRx segment functions as a major pharmacy care services provider, handling everything from retail network contracting and home delivery to specialty pharmacy services and developing clinical programs for drug adherence and formulary management.
In summary, UnitedHealth Group serves a vast and varied customer base spanning the entire healthcare ecosystem. Its primary customers include individual consumers seeking health coverage or direct care, employers of all sizes providing health benefits, and government entities sponsoring health programs for various populations. The company also acts as a critical partner for healthcare organizations such as hospitals, physician groups, and other health plans, along with life sciences companies, by offering advanced technology, consulting expertise, and pharmacy benefit management solutions, thereby playing a multifaceted role in the administration and delivery of healthcare.
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Here are 1-2 brief analogies to describe UnitedHealth Group (UNH):
- It's like the Microsoft of healthcare, providing a vast ecosystem of health plans, technology, and services across the industry.
- Think of it as the J.P. Morgan Chase of healthcare, a diversified giant offering everything from insurance and pharmacy benefits to direct care and IT solutions.
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Major Products and Services of UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
- Health Benefit Plans and Services: Offers a wide array of health and dental insurance plans and services for individuals, employers, and government-sponsored programs like Medicare and Medicaid.
- Healthcare Delivery and Management: Provides direct patient care through its care delivery systems and networks, alongside health management, consumer engagement, and financial services.
- Pharmacy Benefit Management (PBM): Delivers comprehensive pharmacy care services, including retail network contracting, home delivery, specialty pharmacy, and drug therapy management programs.
- Healthcare Technology, Consulting, and Outsourcing: Offers software and information products, advisory consulting, and managed services outsourcing to hospitals, health plans, and other healthcare organizations.
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UnitedHealth Group (UNH) serves a diverse range of customers, encompassing both individuals and various types of organizations and government entities. Based on the company description, its major customer categories are:
- Employers and Government Entities: UnitedHealth Group provides health benefit plans and services to national employers, public sector employers, mid-sized employers, and small businesses. It also serves government entities through Medicaid plans, children's health insurance programs, and as a provider of health management services and technology solutions. The OptumRx segment also primarily serves employers and health plans through its pharmacy care services.
- Healthcare Providers and Other Organizations: Through its OptumInsight segment, the company offers software, information products, advisory consulting, and managed services to hospital systems, physicians, other health plans, governments, and life sciences companies.
- Individuals: The company directly serves individuals with consumer-oriented health benefit plans, including those aged 50 and older, as well as individuals enrolled in Medicaid and children's health insurance programs. OptumHealth also directly provides care delivery and health management services to individuals.
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Stephen J. Hemsley, Chief Executive Officer
Stephen J. Hemsley assumed the role of Chief Executive Officer in May 2025, succeeding Sir Andrew Witty. He previously served as Chairman and former CEO of UnitedHealth Group.
Wayne S. DeVeydt, Chief Financial Officer
Wayne S. DeVeydt was appointed Chief Financial Officer, effective September 2, 2025. Prior to this role, he was a managing director and operating partner at Bain Capital, a private equity firm. From 2018 to 2020, he served as chairman and CEO of Surgery Partners, Inc. He also held the position of Chief Financial Officer at Anthem, Inc. (now Elevance) from 2007 to 2016, and was a partner with PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, focusing on the health care sector.
John Rex, President
John Rex became President of UnitedHealth Group on April 1, 2024, after previously serving as the company's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer since 2016. He joined UnitedHealth Group in 2012 as the Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President of Optum, Inc., a UnitedHealth Group subsidiary. Before joining Optum, Mr. Rex was a leading equity research analyst and managing director at J.P. Morgan, and also served as a Senior Research Analyst at Bear, Stearns & Co., Inc. He also held the position of CFO and Executive Vice President for InGensa, Inc., and worked as a strategy and operations consultant specializing in health services. He is a certified public accountant and advised clients for Ernst & Young in the health services sector.
Rupert Bondy, Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer
Rupert Bondy joined UnitedHealth Group in March 2022 as Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer. Before joining UnitedHealth Group, he served as senior vice president, general counsel, and corporate secretary for Reckitt, a consumer goods group.
Patrick Conway, M.D., CEO, Optum
Dr. Patrick Conway was named CEO of Optum in 2025. He joined Optum in 2020 and previously served as the CEO of Care Solutions. Prior to his time at Optum, Dr. Conway was the president and CEO of Blue Cross and Blue Shield of North Carolina.
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The key risks to UnitedHealth Group (UNH) primarily revolve around regulatory scrutiny, the aftermath of significant cybersecurity incidents, and challenges within its Medicare Advantage business.
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Regulatory Scrutiny and Antitrust Investigations: UnitedHealth Group is facing extensive scrutiny and ongoing antitrust investigations by the Department of Justice (DOJ) into its business practices, particularly concerning the relationship between its UnitedHealthcare insurance arm and its Optum health services segments. These investigations encompass allegations of anticompetitive behavior, upcoding, overbilling, and denying patient care. The DOJ has also examined UnitedHealth's acquisitions of physician practices and its billing practices within Medicare Advantage and Optum Rx. The potential consequences include legal challenges, increased operational expenses due to compliance requirements, and possible divestiture of Optum assets.
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Cybersecurity Risks and Data Breaches: A significant risk stems from the potential for and fallout from major cybersecurity incidents. The February 2024 cyberattack on Change Healthcare, a subsidiary within UnitedHealth's Optum Insight segment, exposed the sensitive data of nearly 200 million people, making it the largest healthcare data breach in U.S. history. This incident alone incurred billions of dollars in financial costs for UnitedHealth Group and led to widespread disruptions in claims processing. The company also experienced another breach through its Episource subsidiary in 2025, affecting millions more. These events highlight substantial vulnerabilities in its IT infrastructure and expose the company to ongoing lawsuits and reputational damage.
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Medicare Advantage Business Challenges: UnitedHealth Group's significant presence in the Medicare Advantage (MA) market faces several specific risks. These include ongoing regulatory investigations into billing practices, with allegations of inflating patient risk scores to secure higher payments. Furthermore, the company is susceptible to potential downgrades in its Medicare Star Ratings for 2027, which could negatively impact quality bonus payments and reduce the competitiveness of its plans. Elevated medical costs within the Medicare Advantage segment also pose a challenge, potentially affecting profitability.
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- Disruptive competition from tech giants expanding into healthcare services. Amazon's continued expansion in pharmacy (e.g., Amazon Pharmacy, PillPack) and primary care (e.g., One Medical) poses a direct competitive threat to UnitedHealth Group's OptumRx segment (pharmacy care services and home delivery) and OptumHealth segment (care delivery systems). Amazon leverages its logistics, pricing power, and direct-to-consumer model, which could significantly challenge OptumRx's market share and profitability by offering alternative, often more convenient and transparent, services.
- Increasing legislative and regulatory scrutiny of Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs). There is growing bipartisan political pressure and ongoing legislative efforts at both federal and state levels to increase transparency, regulate PBM practices, and potentially limit their profitability or vertical integration. This directly threatens the business model and financial performance of UnitedHealth Group's OptumRx segment by potentially forcing changes in its operations, rebate structures, and revenue streams.
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UnitedHealth Group operates within several large and growing addressable markets in the United States for its diverse healthcare products and services. The company's main segments target distinct areas of the healthcare industry.
UnitedHealthcare
UnitedHealthcare, which offers health benefit plans and services, operates within the broader U.S. healthcare market. The U.S. healthcare market was valued at approximately USD 4.87 trillion in 2025 and is estimated to reach USD 5.15 trillion in 2026. This market is projected to expand to USD 8.09 trillion by 2034, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.80% from 2026 to 2034. National health expenditures in the U.S. reached USD 5.3 trillion in 2024.
Optum
The U.S. addressable market for all Optum services, encompassing data and analytics, care delivery, population health management and engagement, health financial services, health IT, benefit and care operations, and pharmacy care services, is estimated at more than USD 850 billion. This market is expected to grow at a mid-single digit annual percentage rate over the next several years.
OptumHealth
OptumHealth provides care provider networks, health management services, and direct care delivery. The U.S. integrated delivery network market, which includes unified and vertically integrated healthcare systems, was valued at USD 1,588.15 billion in 2025 and is poised to grow from USD 1,751.73 billion in 2026 to USD 4,232.98 billion by 2035, at a CAGR of 10.3%. Additionally, the U.S. care services market was valued at USD 456.6 billion in 2021, reached USD 478.1 billion in 2022, and is projected to grow to USD 748.5 billion by 2030. The U.S. home healthcare market, a component of care delivery, was estimated at USD 155.45 billion in 2025 and is expected to surpass USD 320.69 billion by 2035.
OptumInsight
OptumInsight offers software and information products, advisory consulting, and managed services outsourcing. The markets OptumInsight serves, including payers, care providers, state governments, and life sciences, represent more than USD 300 billion in market opportunity. More specifically, the U.S. healthcare IT market is valued at USD 213.50 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 414.34 billion by 2031. The U.S. healthcare IT software market size was valued at USD 189.6 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 634.0 billion by 2033. For healthcare consulting, the U.S. market size is approximately USD 21.9 billion in 2026.
OptumRx
OptumRx provides pharmacy care services and programs. The U.S. pharmacy benefit management (PBM) market size is estimated at USD 504.08 billion in 2026 and is expected to reach around USD 1,120.83 billion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of 9.7% from 2026 to 2035. Another estimate places the U.S. PBM market size at USD 628.2 billion in 2026.
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UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
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Expansion in Value-Based Care within Optum Health: Optum Health anticipates growth by increasing the scope and types of care services offered, particularly in home-based care and for individuals with complex health needs. This segment is accelerating its focus on value-based care models, with management projecting sustained operating improvements and substantial earnings growth by 2027, aiming for a 6%-8% margin range by 2028. Key initiatives include expanding fully accountable patient relationships and enhancing high-performing service lines such as home health and surgical centers.
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Growth in Optum Rx Pharmacy Care Services and Specialty Pharmacy: Revenue for Optum Rx is expected to be driven by its pharmacy care offerings, attracting new customers to its pharmacy benefits management services, and expanding its specialty services, including the adoption of biosimilars. The company has diversified its customer base, with over 50% of Optum Rx's membership now coming from external clients. This segment projects a long-term average annual revenue growth rate of 5% to 8%.
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UnitedHealthcare Membership Growth Across Segments: UnitedHealthcare aims to grow revenue by increasing its membership base. This includes adding new consumers in the domestic commercial business, expanding its reach in Medicare Advantage by focusing on disciplined benefit design and high-value plan offerings, and increasing services for individuals with complex needs in Medicaid, anticipating margin recovery after 2026.
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Strategic Investments in AI and Technology for Operational Efficiency and New Offerings: UnitedHealth Group is heavily investing in artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies to modernize its operations. These initiatives are designed to reduce administrative complexities, enhance patient and clinician experiences, and improve the efficiency of care delivery. Optum Insight, in particular, is integrating AI into existing products and developing new AI-first platforms, expecting significant progress in 2027 that will lay the groundwork for accelerated growth in subsequent years.
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Share Repurchases
- UnitedHealth Group expects to make at least $5 billion in share repurchases in 2026, having already spent $4 billion through mid-July 2026.
- In June 2024, the Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of up to 35 million shares of common stock, in addition to previously authorized amounts, with no expiration date.
- Annual share repurchases were $5.545 billion in 2025, $9 billion in 2024, and $8 billion in 2023.
Share Issuance
- The company's shares outstanding at the end of fiscal 2025 were 911.0 million, unchanged from fiscal 2024.
- As of June 30, 2026, shares outstanding were 906.0 million, representing a general decline over the past few years.
Outbound Investments
- In 2022, UnitedHealth Group completed the acquisition of Change Healthcare for approximately $8 billion, after initial regulatory challenges.
- The acquisition of LHC Group for $5.4 billion was agreed upon in 2022 and closed in February 2023.
- UnitedHealth announced the acquisition of Amedisys in 2023 for $3.3 billion, which faced a U.S. Department of Justice lawsuit in November 2024 on antitrust grounds.
Capital Expenditures
- UnitedHealth Group's capital expenditures were $3.622 billion in 2025, $3.499 billion in 2024, $3.386 billion in 2023, $2.802 billion in 2022, and $2.454 billion in 2021.
- Estimated capital expenditures for 2026 are $3.8 billion. The forecast for the next fiscal year is $3.7 billion, with an expected average of $4.064 billion over the next five fiscal years.
- The company plans to invest $3 billion in artificial intelligence in 2026 and 2027 to enhance efficiency, having already seen significant reductions in manual contact costs and improvements in claims processing through AI.
Peer Outperformance in Managed Health Care
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care Distributors | 6 | 15.2% | 47.5% | 101.1% | CAH 456% · MCK 395% · COR 193% |
| Health Care Services | 20 | 21.8% | 36.8% | 9.2% | HIMS 256% · RDNT 152% · DGX 80% |
| Managed Health Care ← | 8 | 40.1% | -2.3% | 8.0% | OSCR 133% · HQY 42% · ELV 22% |
| Health Care Facilities | 24 | 3.2% | 18.1% | 6.2% | THC 337% · NHC 272% · EHC 144% |
| Health Care Equipment | 50 | -2.1% | 3.7% | -13.7% | UFPT 365% · GKOS 252% · TMDX 183% |
| Pharmaceuticals | 61 | -8.9% | -4.7% | -32.7% | LQDA 720% · KNSA 573% · CORT 459% |
| Health Care Supplies | 12 | 29.1% | -4.7% | -35.3% | LNTH 328% · HAE 74% · MMSI 22% |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services | 109 | -13.5% | -6.4% | -67.0% | NTRA 257% · MEDP 232% · GH 59% |
| Biotechnology | 361 | -24.8% | -28.4% | -81.2% | DNTH 1023% · ELVN 926% · ADMA 804% |
| Health Care Technology | 22 | -27.8% | -63.0% | -83.6% | VEEV 1% · DOCS -61% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 341.42 |
| Mkt Cap | 84.2 |
| Rev LTM | 242,137 |
| Op Inc LTM | 11,462 |
| FCF LTM | 9,032 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5,577 |
| CFO LTM | 10,013 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 6,825 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -4.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -4.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 84.2 |
| P/S | 0.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 12.5 |
| P/EBIT | 12.9 |
| P/E | 21.2 |
| P/CFO | 10.2 |
| Total Yield | 6.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 33.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 21.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -0.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 2.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 22.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 4.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -80.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UnitedHealthcare | 344,903 | 298,208 | 281,360 | 249,741 | 222,899 |
| Optum Rx | 154,726 | 133,231 | 116,087 | 99,773 | 91,314 |
| Optum Health | 101,957 | 105,358 | 95,319 | 71,174 | 54,065 |
| Optum Insight | 19,417 | 18,757 | 18,932 | 14,581 | 12,199 |
| Optum Eliminations | -5,480 | -4,389 | -3,703 | -2,760 | -2,013 |
| Corporate and Eliminations | -167,956 | -150,887 | -136,373 | -108,347 | -90,867 |
| Total | 447,567 | 400,278 | 371,622 | 324,162 | 287,597 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UnitedHealthcare | 9,425 | 15,584 | 16,415 | 14,379 | 11,975 |
| Optum Rx | 7,193 | 5,836 | 5,115 | 4,436 | 4,135 |
| Optum Insight | 2,624 | 3,097 | 4,268 | 3,588 | 3,398 |
| Corporate and Eliminations | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Optum Eliminations | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Optum Health | -278 | 7,770 | 6,560 | 6,032 | 4,462 |
| Total | 18,964 | 32,287 | 32,358 | 28,435 | 23,970 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UnitedHealthcare | 124,051 | 119,009 | 110,943 | 107,094 | 102,967 |
| Optum Health | 100,991 | 96,472 | 89,432 | 68,950 | 60,474 |
| Optum Rx | 62,262 | 59,086 | 51,266 | 47,476 | 40,181 |
| Optum Insight | 35,400 | 34,452 | 34,173 | 31,090 | 16,868 |
| Optum Eliminations | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Corporate and Eliminations | -13,123 | -10,741 | -12,094 | -8,905 | -8,284 |
| Total | 309,581 | 298,278 | 273,720 | 245,705 | 212,206 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $395.62 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 356.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/26/1990 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -8.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $386.16 | $354.82 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | 2.5% | 11.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 23.4% | 34.5% |
| Downside Capture | 98.45 | 43.75 |
| Upside Capture | 21.64 | 44.83 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 16.3% | 15.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.02 | -0.09 | 0.03 | -0.00 | 0.42 | 0.25 |
| Up Beta | -0.30 | -0.70 | -0.25 | -0.68 | 0.15 | 0.39 |
| Down Beta | -1.14 | -0.02 | 0.50 | 0.31 | 0.73 | 0.23 |
| Up Capture | -11% | -25% | -22% | 44% | 30% | 2% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 19 | 28 | 63 | 123 | 382 |
| Down Capture | 87% | 84% | 47% | -34% | 45% | 45% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 36 | 63 | 129 | 370 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with UNH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNH | 13.3% | 34.5% | 0.41 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 24.2% | 16.0% | 1.16 | 37.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.1% | 12.7% | 0.96 | 13.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | -0.6% | 29.4% | -0.02 | 7.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 49.3% | 20.7% | 1.82 | -2.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 13.7% | 0.15 | 17.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -27.9% | 43.7% | -0.63 | 20.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with UNH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNH | 1.9% | 32.1% | 0.11 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 8.4% | 15.2% | 0.35 | 47.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.6% | 17.1% | 0.60 | 21.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.9% | 18.9% | 0.76 | 3.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.0% | 19.5% | 0.39 | 1.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.2% | 18.8% | -0.05 | 19.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.5% | 51.8% | 0.34 | 10.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with UNH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNH | 13.0% | 30.4% | 0.46 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 11.1% | 16.7% | 0.54 | 61.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 44.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.0% | 16.4% | 0.60 | 3.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 11.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 37.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.5% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 10.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 10/15/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/13/2026 | -0.2% | ||
| 7/16/2026 | 1.2% | 3.1% | -4.6% |
| 4/21/2026 | 7.0% | 9.6% | 20.3% |
| 1/27/2026 | 4.0% | 0.5% | 1.4% |
| 10/28/2025 | 0.5% | -8.8% | -10.8% |
| 7/29/2025 | -7.5% | -14.6% | 6.5% |
| 4/17/2025 | -22.4% | -27.5% | -50.1% |
| 1/16/2025 | -0.2% | 4.3% | -1.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.5% |
| Median Negative | -1.8% | -5.1% | -6.7% |
| Max Positive | 7.2% | 12.6% | 20.3% |
| Max Negative | -22.4% | -27.5% | -50.1% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/13/2026 | -0.2% | ||
| 7/16/2026 | 1.2% | 3.1% | -4.6% |
| 4/21/2026 | 7.0% | 9.6% | 20.3% |
| 1/27/2026 | 4.0% | 0.5% | 1.4% |
| 10/28/2025 | 0.5% | -8.8% | -10.8% |
| 7/29/2025 | -7.5% | -14.6% | 6.5% |
| 4/17/2025 | -22.4% | -27.5% | -50.1% |
| 1/16/2025 | -0.2% | 4.3% | -1.9% |
| 10/15/2024 | -8.1% | -5.6% | 1.5% |
| 7/16/2024 | 6.5% | 8.4% | 11.4% |
| 4/16/2024 | 5.2% | 10.2% | 15.3% |
| 1/12/2024 | -0.5% | -1.6% | -0.9% |
| 10/13/2023 | 2.6% | 1.2% | 3.0% |
| 7/14/2023 | 7.2% | 12.6% | 13.5% |
| 4/14/2023 | -2.7% | -7.4% | -6.7% |
| 1/13/2023 | -0.9% | -0.8% | 0.7% |
| 10/14/2022 | 0.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% |
| 7/15/2022 | 5.4% | 4.0% | 8.2% |
| 4/14/2022 | -0.4% | 0.1% | -9.6% |
| 1/19/2022 | 0.1% | -0.9% | 1.7% |
| 10/14/2021 | 4.2% | 7.8% | 13.3% |
| 7/15/2021 | 1.3% | -0.0% | -2.1% |
| 4/15/2021 | 3.8% | 6.2% | 8.8% |
| 1/20/2021 | 1.2% | -5.1% | -7.5% |
| 10/14/2020 | -2.9% | -2.4% | 6.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.5% |
| Median Negative | -1.8% | -5.1% | -6.7% |
| Max Positive | 7.2% | 12.6% | 20.3% |
| Max Negative | -22.4% | -27.5% | -50.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/10/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/10/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/15/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/01/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/02/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/03/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/14/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/06/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/14/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/13/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net Earnings Attributable to UnitedHealth Group Common Shareholders | Reported | 17.65 Bil | 17.65 Bil | |||||
| 2026 Adjusted Net Earnings Attributable to UnitedHealth Group Common Shareholders | Reported | 18.59 Bil | 18.59 Bil | |||||
| 2026 Debt-to-Capital Ratio | Reported | 0.4 | ||||||
| 2026 Diluted Earnings Per Share | Reported | 19.5 | 19.5 | 4.3% | Raised | Guidance: 18.7 for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted Earnings Per Share | Reported | 20.5 | 20.5 | 3.8% | Raised | Guidance: 19.75 for 2026 | ||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/16/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 UnitedHealthcare Reported Operating Earnings | Reported | 12.00 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Optum Health Reported Operating Earnings | Reported | 2.27 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Optum Insight Reported Operating Earnings | Reported | 4.92 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Optum Rx Reported Operating Earnings | Reported | 6.25 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 UnitedHealth Group Reported Operating Earnings | Reported | 25.45 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Medical Care Ratio | Reported | 0.88 | ||||||
| 2026 Cash Flows from Operations | Reported | 24.00 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted Net Earnings per Share | Reported | 19.5 | 19.75 | 20 | 8.2% | Raised | Guidance: 18.25 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Diluted Net Earnings per Share | Reported | 18.45 | 18.7 | 18.95 | ||||
| 2026 Share Repurchase | Reported | 5.00 Bil | ||||||
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/21/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Share Repurchases | Reported | 2.00 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Debt-to-Capital Ratio | Reported | 0.4 | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 18.25 | 2.8% | Raised | Guidance: 17.75 for 2026 | |||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/27/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Earnings from Operations | Reported | 24.00 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Cash Flows from Operations | Reported | 18.00 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 439.00 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Operating Margin | Reported | 5.5% | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted Earnings per Share | Reported | 17.75 | 9.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 16.25 for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 9/24/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conway, Patrick Hugh | Chief Executive Officer, Optum | Direct | Sell | 8252026 | 390.00 | 1,169 | 455,910 | 5,977,841 | Form |
| 2 | Conway, Patrick Hugh | Chief Executive Officer, Optum | Direct | Sell | 8072026 | 410.00 | 500 | 205,000 | 6,763,687 | Form |
| 3 | Conway, Patrick Hugh | Chief Executive Officer, Optum | Direct | Sell | 4272026 | 355.00 | 800 | 284,000 | 6,320,772 | Form |
| 4 | Baker, Charles D | Trust | Sell | 9152025 | 356.05 | 27 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conway, Patrick Hugh | Chief Executive Officer, Optum | Direct | Sell | 8252026 | 390.00 | 1,169 | 455,910 | 5,977,841 | Form |
| 2 | Conway, Patrick Hugh | Chief Executive Officer, Optum | Direct | Sell | 8072026 | 410.00 | 500 | 205,000 | 6,763,687 | Form |
| 3 | Conway, Patrick Hugh | Chief Executive Officer, Optum | Direct | Sell | 4272026 | 355.00 | 800 | 284,000 | 6,320,772 | Form |
| 4 | Baker, Charles D | Trust | Sell | 9152025 | 356.05 | 27 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 15, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naya Capital Management UK LTD | $273.4 Mil | 23.2% | 4 | ADD +10.7% | 13F |
| Solel Partners LP | $55.9 Mil | 11.9% | 19 | Hold | 13F |
| Marshfield Associates | $511.6 Mil | 10.2% | 17 | ADD +14.0% | 13F |
| Seilern Investment Management Ltd | $76.1 Mil | 9.1% | 24 | TRIM -21.0% | 13F |
| Warther Private Wealth, LLC | $31.9 Mil | 7.5% | 40 | ADD +5.7% | 13F |
| GUARDCAP ASSET MANAGEMENT Ltd | $126.8 Mil | 7.3% | 27 | TRIM -43.9% | 13F |
| Boone Capital Management LLC | $21.4 Mil | 6.6% | 13 | ADD +28.3% | 13F |
| Vulcan Value Partners, LLC | $247.0 Mil | 6.5% | 33 | TRIM -15.7% | 13F |
| Route One Investment Company, L.P. | $144.2 Mil | 6.3% | 18 | ADD +5.0% | 13F |
| Gobi Capital LLC | $104.5 Mil | 6.1% | 10 | TRIM -5.2% | 13F |
| MFF Capital Investments Ltd | $84.5 Mil | 5.6% | 19 | ADD +11.8% | 13F |
| Bowie Capital Management, LLC | $96.2 Mil | 4.6% | 29 | ADD +27.6% | 13F |
| Patient Capital Management, LLC | $118.3 Mil | 4.4% | 38 | ADD +18.7% | 13F |
| Generali Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne | $24.4 Mil | 4.3% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
| Focused Investors LLC | $132.5 Mil | 4.3% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Longview Partners (Guernsey) LTD | $303.5 Mil | 4.3% | 25 | TRIM -10.6% | 13F |
| One Fin Capital Management LP | $8.9 Mil | 3.4% | 19 | New | 13F |
| AltraVue Capital, LLC | $38.3 Mil | 3.3% | 49 | ADD +80.6% | 13F |
| Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb L.P. | $197.1 Mil | 3.3% | 50 | Hold | 13F |
| TB Alternative Assets Ltd. | $12.8 Mil | 2.7% | 36 | New | 13F |
| Sector Gamma AS | $9.9 Mil | 2.3% | 42 | New | 13F |
| Concord Investment Counsel Inc. | $6.5 Mil | 2.2% | 41 | Hold | 13F |
| PARUS FINANCE (UK) Ltd | $7.3 Mil | 2.2% | 37 | Hold | 13F |
| Smead Capital Management, Inc. | $93.9 Mil | 2.0% | 32 | ADD +12.4% | 13F |
| BloombergSen Inc. | $18.2 Mil | 2.0% | 27 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H&H International Investment, LLC | $162.7 Mil | 0.8% | 19 | New | 13F |
| Unisphere Establishment | $108.2 Mil | 0.9% | 50 | New | 13F |
| Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. | $58.3 Mil | 1.9% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Crake Asset Management LLP | $41.4 Mil | 1.4% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Spear Holdings RSC Ltd | $14.3 Mil | 1.5% | 17 | New | 13F |
| PBCay One RSC Ltd | $14.3 Mil | 1.5% | 17 | New | 13F |
| TB Alternative Assets Ltd. | $12.8 Mil | 2.7% | 36 | New | 13F |
| Sector Gamma AS | $9.9 Mil | 2.3% | 42 | New | 13F |
| One Fin Capital Management LP | $8.9 Mil | 3.4% | 19 | New | 13F |
| Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance CO | $7.0 Mil | 1.7% | 46 | New | 13F |
| AltraVue Capital, LLC | $38.3 Mil | 3.3% | 49 | ADD +80.6% | 13F |
| Boone Capital Management LLC | $21.4 Mil | 6.6% | 13 | ADD +28.3% | 13F |
| Bowie Capital Management, LLC | $96.2 Mil | 4.6% | 29 | ADD +27.6% | 13F |
| Patient Capital Management, LLC | $118.3 Mil | 4.4% | 38 | ADD +18.7% | 13F |
| Marshfield Associates | $511.6 Mil | 10.2% | 17 | ADD +14.0% | 13F |
| Smead Capital Management, Inc. | $93.9 Mil | 2.0% | 32 | ADD +12.4% | 13F |
| MFF Capital Investments Ltd | $84.5 Mil | 5.6% | 19 | ADD +11.8% | 13F |
| Naya Capital Management UK LTD | $273.4 Mil | 23.2% | 4 | ADD +10.7% | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $9.2 Mil | 1.5% | 41 | ADD +6.8% | 13F |
| Warther Private Wealth, LLC | $31.9 Mil | 7.5% | 40 | ADD +5.7% | 13F |
| Route One Investment Company, L.P. | $144.2 Mil | 6.3% | 18 | ADD +5.0% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eminence Capital, LP | $124.9 Mil | 2.0% | 39 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. | $80.4 Mil | 4.6% | 33 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| RK Capital Management, LLC/FL | $61.1 Mil | 3.8% | 20 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Parsifal Capital Management, LP | $49.6 Mil | 5.0% | 15 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Iron Triangle Partners LP | $23.1 Mil | 2.6% | 27 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Casdin Capital, LLC | $16.5 Mil | 1.0% | 38 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Iyo Bank, Ltd. | $7.6 Mil | 2.4% | 37 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| GUARDCAP ASSET MANAGEMENT Ltd | $126.8 Mil | 7.3% | 27 | TRIM -43.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Seilern Investment Management Ltd | $76.1 Mil | 9.1% | 24 | TRIM -21.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Vulcan Value Partners, LLC | $247.0 Mil | 6.5% | 33 | TRIM -15.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Longview Partners (Guernsey) LTD | $303.5 Mil | 4.3% | 25 | TRIM -10.6% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Venator Management LLC | $6.2 Mil | 1.5% | 28 | TRIM -6.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Gobi Capital LLC | $104.5 Mil | 6.1% | 10 | TRIM -5.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanders Capital, LLC | $1.6 Bil | 1.9% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Marshfield Associates | $511.6 Mil | 10.2% | 17 | ADD +14.0% | 13F |
| Longview Partners (Guernsey) LTD | $303.5 Mil | 4.3% | 25 | TRIM -10.6% | 13F |
| Naya Capital Management UK LTD | $273.4 Mil | 23.2% | 4 | ADD +10.7% | 13F |
| Vulcan Value Partners, LLC | $247.0 Mil | 6.5% | 33 | TRIM -15.7% | 13F |
| PineStone Asset Management Inc. | $218.9 Mil | 1.5% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb L.P. | $197.1 Mil | 3.3% | 50 | Hold | 13F |
| H&H International Investment, LLC | $162.7 Mil | 0.8% | 19 | New | 13F |
| Route One Investment Company, L.P. | $144.2 Mil | 6.3% | 18 | ADD +5.0% | 13F |
| Focused Investors LLC | $132.5 Mil | 4.3% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| GUARDCAP ASSET MANAGEMENT Ltd | $126.8 Mil | 7.3% | 27 | TRIM -43.9% | 13F |
| Patient Capital Management, LLC | $118.3 Mil | 4.4% | 38 | ADD +18.7% | 13F |
| Unisphere Establishment | $108.2 Mil | 0.9% | 50 | New | 13F |
| Gobi Capital LLC | $104.5 Mil | 6.1% | 10 | TRIM -5.2% | 13F |
| Bowie Capital Management, LLC | $96.2 Mil | 4.6% | 29 | ADD +27.6% | 13F |
| Smead Capital Management, Inc. | $93.9 Mil | 2.0% | 32 | ADD +12.4% | 13F |
| MFF Capital Investments Ltd | $84.5 Mil | 5.6% | 19 | ADD +11.8% | 13F |
| Seilern Investment Management Ltd | $76.1 Mil | 9.1% | 24 | TRIM -21.0% | 13F |
| Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. | $58.3 Mil | 1.9% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Solel Partners LP | $55.9 Mil | 11.9% | 19 | Hold | 13F |
| Crake Asset Management LLP | $41.4 Mil | 1.4% | 20 | New | 13F |
| AltraVue Capital, LLC | $38.3 Mil | 3.3% | 49 | ADD +80.6% | 13F |
| Greenwoods Asset Management Hong Kong Ltd. | $35.3 Mil | 0.9% | 35 | Hold | 13F |
| Warther Private Wealth, LLC | $31.9 Mil | 7.5% | 40 | ADD +5.7% | 13F |
| Generali Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne | $24.4 Mil | 4.3% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
UNH Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive based on tangible evidence of a successful turnaround. The company is executing a disciplined strategy of sacrificing unprofitable memberships to improve pricing, which has already lowered its medical cost ratio. Management has raised its full-year 2026 earnings outlook twice, signaling confidence that this margin recovery is on track.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Diversified Health Services & Contractual Insurance(Number of Members x Premium PMPM) + (Volume of Services/Scripts x Price per Unit) Margin recovery through disciplined repricing of the insurance book and operational improvements in the Optum Health care delivery business.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests the strategy is working, as disciplined pricing actions are already improving margins despite lower membership.
- Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance was raised to a new range of $19.50 to $20.00.
- The Q2 2026 medical care ratio improved to 86.7% from 89.4% in the prior year.
- Optum Health's 2026 operating earnings outlook was increased to at least $2.2 billion.
- UnitedHealthcare's 2026 operating earnings outlook was increased to at least $12 billion.
- Optum Rx client retention rates remain in the high 90s.
PRIMARY RISK
Persistently high medical cost trends, which management notes are 'modestly above 11%' in commercial plans, could neutralize pricing gains and keep margins compressed for years.
- Commercial medical cost trends are 'stubbornly high' and running above 11%.
- Management stated full commercial margin recovery is now delayed 'past 2027'.
- Trailing operating margin collapsed to 4.2% from 8.2% a year earlier.
- Operating expenses grew 15.9% year-over-year, far outpacing 9.7% revenue growth.
- Medicare Advantage rate notices from the government remain 'well below' cost trends.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Total Medical Membership | 49,050 total medical members as of 2026 - Decelerating | The decline in membership is a deliberate strategy to improve profitability. Management is prioritizing margin recovery by repricing contracts and exiting less profitable markets, particularly in Medicare Advantage, where it expects enrollment to decline by approximately 1.1 million for the full year 2026. |
| Medical Care Ratio (MCR) | 86.7% for Q2 2026 - Turning around | The year-over-year improvement is a direct result of management's pricing, benefit design, and market actions taken over the past year. This indicates that the strategy of sacrificing membership for better profitability is working. The company raised its full-year MCR outlook to 88.1% ± 25 basis points. |
| Total UnitedHealthcare Medical Members | 49.1 million (Q1 2026) | Indicates the scale and market reach of the core health insurance business. The company expects this to contract in 2026 due to pricing actions. |
| People Served by Optum Health | 93 million (as of March 31, 2026) | Represents the reach of the care delivery and value-based care business, a key strategic growth area. |
| Optum Rx Adjusted Scripts Fulfilled | 1,659 million (FY2025) | Measures the volume of the pharmacy care services business, a primary driver of Optum Rx revenue and earnings. |
Repricing Power vs. Stubborn Cost Trends
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe management's pricing discipline is potent enough to offset cost pressures, pointing to the improved medical cost ratio and two consecutive raises to 2026 earnings guidance as proof.
CORE TENSION
Can the demonstrated success in repricing, which improved the Q2 medical ratio to 86.7%, overcome the 'stubbornly high' commercial cost trend running above 11%?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. The company's ability to raise its full-year earnings outlook for both UnitedHealthcare and Optum Health demonstrates the repricing strategy is currently winning.
BEAR VIEW
Bears focus on management's warning that commercial cost trends above 11% will delay full margin recovery past 2027, arguing the market is underestimating this structural headwind.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
in the back half of 2026 | Investor Conference Convened Watch: Company plans to convene its investor conference, providing a strategic update. |
10/19/2026 | Peer Read-Across on Medical Costs Watch: Peer commentary on Q3 commercial and Medicaid medical loss ratios and forward-looking cost trend guidance. |
10/26/2026 | Q3 Commercial Margin Disappointment Watch: UnitedHealthcare segment operating margin and specific commentary on the commercial book's performance versus plan. |
10/26/2026 | Optum Health Turnaround Stalls Watch: Optum Health segment operating income and margin, with commentary on progress in value-based care and operational discipline. |
10/26/2026 | Next UNH Earnings Report Watch: UnitedHealth is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings, providing updates on segment margins and cost trends. |
10/27/2026 | Centene and CVS Earnings Watch: Peers Centene (CNC) and CVS Health (CVS) are scheduled to report earnings, offering further data on industry trends. |
10/28/2026 | Cigna Earnings Report Watch: Peer Cigna (CI) is scheduled to report earnings. |
by year-end | Optum Health AI Rollout Watch: Optum Health's AI-based ambient listening capabilities are on track to be available to over 90% of employed providers. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-16 | Q2 Earnings Beat Expectations Details: The company reported second quarter 2026 results that exceeded expectations and raised its full-year 2026 guidance for Adjusted Net Earnings per Share, with a new midpoint of 19.8. | +1.8% $418.52 -> $426.09 |
2026-05-29 | Pediatric Prior Authorizations Reduced Details: On May 29, 2026, UnitedHealthcare announced it was eliminating nearly two-thirds of prior authorization requirements for pediatric care by year's end to simplify the healthcare system. | -0.7% $380.36 -> $377.70 |
2026-04-21 | Positive Q1 Earnings Reaction Details: The stock reacted positively around the April 21, 2026 earnings call, with a two-day reaction of 9.0%, aided by a final 2027 CMS Medicare Advantage rate notice that was better than initial expectations. | +9.3% $321.64 -> $351.51 |
2026-03-17 | Director Fiduciary Duty Investigation Details: On March 17, 2026, law firm Scott+Scott announced an investigation into whether certain officers and directors breached their fiduciary duties to the company. | -0.4% $283.87 -> $282.72 |
2026-02-05 | Analysts Question Margin Pressure Details: Following the Q4 2025 earnings call, analysts focused on ongoing margin pressure, with margins below sector and historical averages due to elevated Medical Care Ratio and funding changes. | +0.3% $272.24 -> $272.96 |
2026-01-27 | Weak Medicare Rate Proposal Details: A government proposal for 2027 Medicare insurer payments was much lower than expected, contributing to a -16.0% two-day stock reaction around the January 27th earnings call. | -16.4% $346.95 -> $290.10 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: UNH trades at roughly 30% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (2.0x the market), around the 23rd percentile of its own trailing year. A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
CVS - CVS Health
Vertically-Integrated PeerCVS Health offers a different integration model with a massive retail pharmacy and store footprint, providing direct consumer health touchpoints that UnitedHealth lacks.
CI - Cigna
Focused Health ServicesCigna provides more focused exposure to the attractive pharmacy benefit management and commercial insurance markets without the complexities of managing a large Medicare Advantage book.
A two-engine enterprise navigating a major margin reset: a mature, massive insurance business (UnitedHealthcare) is being repriced for profitability, while a portfolio of higher-growth health services businesses (Optum) is being retooled for consistent performance.
UnitedHealth Group is a story of scale and strategic evolution. The company is leveraging its massive insurance base to fuel the growth of its Optum health services arm, which is focused on value-based care, pharmacy services, and technology. After a period of significant margin compression from elevated medical costs, management has initiated a 'back to basics' turnaround focused on disciplined pricing and operational execution. The near-term narrative is about margin recovery at the expense of membership growth, with a long-term bet on AI and an integrated care model to drive future performance.
Evidence of stabilizing or improving medical cost trends, margin expansion in Optum Health, and successful execution of AI-driven efficiency initiatives.
Continued high medical cost trends that outpace pricing actions, further deterioration in Optum Health's profitability, or significant adverse changes to Medicare Advantage reimbursement rates.
Small bolt-on acquisitions or divestitures of non-core assets.
Repricing Catalyst
The company has undertaken a significant repricing of its insurance portfolio for 2026 to restore profitability after a period of elevated medical costs, which is the central catalyst for near-term earnings improvement.
UnitedHealthcare
$687.1B TTM (77% of Total) · 2% MarginWhat It Is
Offers a comprehensive array of health benefit plans and services to a wide range of customers, including large national employers, public sector employers, mid-sized employers, small businesses, individuals, seniors (Medicare), and economically disadvantaged populations (Medicaid).
Who Pays & How
Employers, government agencies (CMS for Medicare, states for Medicaid), and individuals pay fixed monthly premiums to assume the financial risk of health care costs and gain access to the company's extensive network of discounted care providers and care management services.
Competition
Optum Health
$198.6B TTM (22% of Total) · 0% MarginWhat It Is
Provides patient-centered care delivery, including primary, specialty, and surgical care, as well as care management, wellness, and health financial services. It serves patients, consumers, care delivery systems, providers, employers, payers, and public-sector entities.
Who Pays & How
Payers (health plans) and patients pay for care. Payers enter into fully accountable value-based arrangements, paying a monthly premium for Optum Health to assume responsibility for health care costs, aiming for better outcomes at a lower total cost.
Competition
Optum Insight
$39.5B TTM (4% of Total) · 8% MarginWhat It Is
Sells data, analytics, research, consulting, technology, and managed services solutions to hospital systems, physicians, health plans, state governments, and life sciences companies.
Who Pays & How
Health systems, health plans, and other healthcare organizations pay for services and technology to improve operating performance, reduce administrative costs, advance care quality, and modernize their core systems.
Competition
Optum Rx
$296.6B TTM (33% of Total) · 2% MarginWhat It Is
Provides a full spectrum of pharmacy care services, including retail pharmacy networks, home delivery, and specialty pharmacy. It serves health benefits providers, large national employer plans, unions, and public-sector entities.
Who Pays & How
Clients (health plans, employers) pay for pharmacy benefit management services to manage prescription drug spending. Revenue is also derived from products sold through its pharmacy network.
Competition
UnitedHealth Group — Investor Video Playlist
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