Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -47%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -92%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -124%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -34%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 19%
  Key risks
CNC key risks include [1] securities lawsuits and an SEC investigation over alleged misleading statements, Show more.
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 4.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.4 Bil
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Telehealth Platforms, Health Data Analytics, Show more.
  
0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -47%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 19%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 4.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.4 Bil
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Telehealth Platforms, Health Data Analytics, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -92%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -124%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -34%
6 Key risks
CNC key risks include [1] securities lawsuits and an SEC investigation over alleged misleading statements, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CNC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining significant movements in Centene's (CNC) stock in 2025: 1. Centene withdrew its 2025 earnings guidance. Centene Corporation withdrew its previously issued 2025 GAAP and adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) guidance, including underlying guidance elements. This announcement, made in early July 2025, caused the stock to experience a substantial decline.

2. Significant reduction in net risk adjustment revenue transfer. A preliminary analysis indicated an estimated $1.8 billion reduction in full-year net risk adjustment revenue transfer for 2025, which corresponded to an adjusted diluted EPS impact of approximately $2.75. This reduction was based on early 2025 industry Health Insurance Marketplace data.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CNC Return-5%37%-0%-10%-18%-36%-38%
Peers Return19%42%5%-4%-25%1%28%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CNC Win Rate42%50%58%58%50%42% 
Peers Win Rate55%58%48%42%42%55% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CNC Max Drawdown-28%-3%-10%-25%-24%-58% 
Peers Max Drawdown-33%-6%-15%-20%-30%-29% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UNH, ELV, CVS, MOH, HUM. See CNC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCNCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-37.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven58.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-33.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven49.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven23 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-41.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven71.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven597 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-53.2%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven113.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1005 days1480 days

Compare to UNH, CI, HUM, MOH, ELV


In The Past

Centene's stock fell -37.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/15/2022. A -37.0% loss requires a 58.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Centene (CNC)

Better Bets than Centene (CNC)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CNC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%
CNC_7312025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG07312025CNCCenteneDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
49.5%49.5%-3.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%
CNC_7312025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG07312025CNCCenteneDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
49.5%49.5%-3.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Centene

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CNCUNHELVCVSMOHHUMMedian
NameCentene UnitedHe.Elevance.CVS Heal.Molina H.Humana  
Mkt Price38.87331.63345.9677.88162.30260.28211.29
Mkt Cap19.1300.577.398.88.531.354.3
Rev LTM185,857435,159194,820394,08444,550126,362190,338
Op Inc LTM1,09526,357-10,7511,323-6,037
FCF LTM3,35617,3723,7676,293-5741,5473,562
FCF 3Y Avg3,01718,9684,2956,4275197323,656
CFO LTM4,06420,9584,9129,109-4612,0454,488
CFO 3Y Avg3,76122,4435,5199,2776191,4644,640

Growth & Margins

CNCUNHELVCVSMOHHUMMedian
NameCentene UnitedHe.Elevance.CVS Heal.Molina H.Humana  
Rev Chg LTM14.9%10.5%12.0%6.8%13.7%9.9%11.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg9.6%11.4%8.4%7.7%12.8%11.4%10.5%
Rev Chg Q18.2%12.2%12.3%7.8%11.0%11.1%11.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.3%2.9%2.9%1.9%2.6%2.6%2.8%
Op Mgn LTM0.6%6.1%-2.7%3.0%-2.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg1.7%7.7%-3.3%4.0%-3.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.5%-1.2%-0.1%-0.8%--0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM2.2%4.8%2.5%2.3%-1.0%1.6%2.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg2.3%5.8%3.1%2.5%2.0%1.4%2.4%
FCF/Rev LTM1.8%4.0%1.9%1.6%-1.3%1.2%1.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg1.9%4.9%2.4%1.8%1.7%0.8%1.8%

Valuation

CNCUNHELVCVSMOHHUMMedian
NameCentene UnitedHe.Elevance.CVS Heal.Molina H.Humana  
Mkt Cap19.1300.577.398.88.531.354.3
P/S0.10.70.40.20.20.20.2
P/EBIT-4.211.98.516.07.613.310.2
P/E-3.317.813.0204.011.424.215.4
P/CFO4.314.914.710.5-21.815.312.6
Total Yield-30.2%8.1%9.8%4.0%8.8%5.5%6.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.5%2.1%3.5%0.0%1.4%1.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg11.5%4.5%4.7%7.1%1.8%0.6%4.6%
D/E1.00.30.40.90.40.40.4
Net D/E-0.10.2-0.00.7-0.5-0.3-0.1

Returns

CNCUNHELVCVSMOHHUMMedian
NameCentene UnitedHe.Elevance.CVS Heal.Molina H.Humana  
1M Rtn4.8%4.2%5.1%-0.7%18.6%11.2%5.0%
3M Rtn21.4%-2.3%12.7%6.1%-8.0%-3.0%1.9%
6M Rtn-29.5%9.4%-7.0%18.8%-45.0%7.7%0.4%
12M Rtn-32.8%-30.0%-3.7%84.4%-44.4%12.8%-16.9%
3Y Rtn-52.2%-33.1%-27.9%-8.5%-51.5%-46.7%-39.9%
1M Excs Rtn4.1%3.4%4.4%-1.4%17.9%10.4%4.2%
3M Excs Rtn19.5%-1.6%8.8%4.2%-11.0%-2.7%1.3%
6M Excs Rtn-41.9%-3.0%-19.4%6.4%-57.4%-4.7%-12.0%
12M Excs Rtn-45.7%-45.8%-18.6%53.4%-57.5%-14.8%-32.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-123.7%-104.3%-100.7%-84.3%-122.5%-117.8%-111.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Medicaid100,75993,151   
Commercial24,84517,380   
Medicare22,26122,484   
Other/Eliminations6,13411,532   
Managed Care  120,119106,86271,209
Specialty Services  5,8634,2533,430
Total153,999144,547125,982111,11574,639


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity13,519,316
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-11.3%
Average Daily Volume8,588,104
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.57
Basic Shares Quantity491,141,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/2025-6.2%-1.3%1.5%
7/25/20256.1%-2.6%9.9%
4/25/20253.1%4.3%-0.1%
2/4/2025-0.9%-6.4%-3.0%
10/25/2024-4.0%-1.1%-4.3%
7/26/20240.5%6.8%6.3%
4/26/2024-0.2%1.1%-1.7%
2/6/20240.0%2.4%6.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131212
# Negative111212
Median Positive3.1%2.6%6.3%
Median Negative-3.0%-2.1%-3.8%
Max Positive10.3%12.3%19.9%
Max Negative-6.2%-7.0%-11.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251029202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025725202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025425202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024218202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241025202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024726202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023220202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231024202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023728202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023425202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022221202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221025202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022726202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022426202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0LONDON SARAHChief Executive Officer8112025Buy25.5019,230490,36521,554,512Form
1Samuels Theodore R. II7292025Buy27.629,000248,580883,840Form
2Greco Thomas 12192024Buy59.7517,0001,015,7501,153,713Form
3Dallas H James12172024Buy59.011,69399,90499,904Form
4BLUME JESSICA L.12172024Buy59.4825014,87014,870Form