Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Telehealth Platforms, Health Data Analytics, Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Telehealth Platforms, Health Data Analytics, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CNC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Centene (CNC) experienced a significant stock movement of 33.6% between approximately August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, driven by several key factors.

1. Centene's Reaffirmation of its 2025 Adjusted EPS Outlook in September 2025. On September 11, 2025, Centene reaffirmed its full-year 2025 adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) forecast of approximately $1.75, which surpassed the consensus estimate of $1.62. This announcement provided market certainty and led to an approximate 4% jump in the stock in pre-market trading.

2. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Exceeding Analyst Expectations. Centene reported its third-quarter 2025 results on October 29, 2025, with adjusted diluted EPS of $0.50, significantly beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for a loss of $0.21. The company's revenues also exceeded expectations, contributing to a positive market reaction.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CNC Return-5%37%-0%-10%-18%-36%-38%
Peers Return20%33%16%-3%-19%-19%19%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CNC Win Rate42%50%58%58%50%40% 
Peers Win Rate53%57%57%43%45%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CNC Max Drawdown-28%-3%-10%-25%-24%-58% 
Peers Max Drawdown-35%-8%-13%-20%-24%-31% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UNH, CI, HUM, MOH, ELV. See CNC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCNCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-37.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven58.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-33.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven49.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven23 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-41.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven71.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven597 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-53.2%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven113.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1005 days1480 days

Compare to UNH, CI, HUM, MOH, ELV


In The Past

Centene's stock fell -37.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/15/2022. A -37.0% loss requires a 58.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Centene (CNC)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CNC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
CNC_7312025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG07312025CNCCenteneDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
48.9%48.9%-3.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
CNC_7312025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG07312025CNCCenteneDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
48.9%48.9%-3.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Centene

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CNCUNHCIHUMMOHELVMedian
NameCentene UnitedHe.Cigna Humana Molina H.Elevance. 
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Growth & Margins

CNCUNHCIHUMMOHELVMedian
NameCentene UnitedHe.Cigna Humana Molina H.Elevance. 
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Valuation

CNCUNHCIHUMMOHELVMedian
NameCentene UnitedHe.Cigna Humana Molina H.Elevance. 
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Returns

CNCUNHCIHUMMOHELVMedian
NameCentene UnitedHe.Cigna Humana Molina H.Elevance. 
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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Medicaid100,75993,151   
Commercial24,84517,380   
Medicare22,26122,484   
Other/Eliminations6,13411,532   
Managed Care  120,119106,86271,209
Specialty Services  5,8634,2533,430
Total153,999144,547125,982111,11574,639


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity15,235,571
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120256.4%
Average Daily Volume9,996,753
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.52
Basic Shares Quantity491,141,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251029202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025725202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025425202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024218202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241025202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024726202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023220202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231024202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023728202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023425202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022221202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221025202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022726202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022426202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0LONDON SARAHChief Executive Officer8112025Buy25.5019,230490,36521,554,512Form
1Samuels Theodore R. II7292025Buy27.629,000248,580883,840Form
2Greco Thomas 12192024Buy59.7517,0001,015,7501,153,713Form
3Dallas H James12172024Buy59.011,69399,90499,904Form
4BLUME JESSICA L.12172024Buy59.4825014,87014,870Form