TXNM Energy (TXNM)
Market Price (6/20/2026): $57.03 | Market Cap: $6.3 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Electric Utilities
TXNM Energy (TXNM)
Market Price (6/20/2026): $57.03Market Cap: $6.3 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Electric Utilities
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 4.9% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, and US LNG. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.1%, Dist 3Y High is -4.1% Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -36% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 91% Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 43x Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.2% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -26% Key risksTXNM key risks include [1] the potential regulatory failure of its proposed Blackstone acquisition, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 4.9% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, and US LNG. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.1%, Dist 3Y High is -4.1% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -36% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 91% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 43x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.2% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -26% |
| Key risksTXNM key risks include [1] the potential regulatory failure of its proposed Blackstone acquisition, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Updated on 6/1/2026
TXNM Energy (TXNM) stock has lost about 5% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Overhang of Pending Acquisition by Blackstone Infrastructure.
The primary reason for TXNM Energy's stable stock price is the pending acquisition by Blackstone Infrastructure, announced on May 19, 2025, for $61.25 per share. Regulatory approvals from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the Public Utility Commission of Texas were received in February 2026, but approvals from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and New Mexico Public Regulation Commission are still outstanding. Analysts have issued a consensus "Hold" rating, with median price targets ranging from $61.13 to $61.25, aligning closely with the acquisition price and indicating limited upside until the deal's anticipated closing in the second half of 2026. The stock is largely trading as a function of the acquisition price, with a perceived 20% probability that the deal could fail.
2. Mixed First Quarter 2026 Earnings and Lack of Guidance.
TXNM Energy reported mixed first quarter 2026 results on May 1, 2026, which did not provide a strong catalyst for stock movement. GAAP earnings per diluted share decreased to $0.03 from $0.10 in Q1 2025, primarily due to $16.9 million in net unrealized losses on investment securities and $5.6 million in acquisition-related costs. While ongoing earnings per diluted share slightly increased to $0.21 from $0.19 year-over-year, this figure still missed analysts' consensus estimates of $0.30 per share by $0.09. Additionally, the company's decision not to issue 2026 earnings guidance, due to the pending transaction, further limited investor clarity and forward visibility.
Show more
TXNM Energy (TXNM) stock has lost about 5% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Overhang of Pending Acquisition by Blackstone Infrastructure.
The primary reason for TXNM Energy's stable stock price is the pending acquisition by Blackstone Infrastructure, announced on May 19, 2025, for $61.25 per share. Regulatory approvals from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the Public Utility Commission of Texas were received in February 2026, but approvals from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and New Mexico Public Regulation Commission are still outstanding. Analysts have issued a consensus "Hold" rating, with median price targets ranging from $61.13 to $61.25, aligning closely with the acquisition price and indicating limited upside until the deal's anticipated closing in the second half of 2026. The stock is largely trading as a function of the acquisition price, with a perceived 20% probability that the deal could fail.
2. Mixed First Quarter 2026 Earnings and Lack of Guidance.
TXNM Energy reported mixed first quarter 2026 results on May 1, 2026, which did not provide a strong catalyst for stock movement. GAAP earnings per diluted share decreased to $0.03 from $0.10 in Q1 2025, primarily due to $16.9 million in net unrealized losses on investment securities and $5.6 million in acquisition-related costs. While ongoing earnings per diluted share slightly increased to $0.21 from $0.19 year-over-year, this figure still missed analysts' consensus estimates of $0.30 per share by $0.09. Additionally, the company's decision not to issue 2026 earnings guidance, due to the pending transaction, further limited investor clarity and forward visibility.
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Updated on 6/1/2026
TXNM Energy (TXNM) stock has lost about 5% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Overhang of Pending Acquisition by Blackstone Infrastructure.
The primary reason for TXNM Energy's stable stock price is the pending acquisition by Blackstone Infrastructure, announced on May 19, 2025, for $61.25 per share. Regulatory approvals from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the Public Utility Commission of Texas were received in February 2026, but approvals from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and New Mexico Public Regulation Commission are still outstanding. Analysts have issued a consensus "Hold" rating, with median price targets ranging from $61.13 to $61.25, aligning closely with the acquisition price and indicating limited upside until the deal's anticipated closing in the second half of 2026. The stock is largely trading as a function of the acquisition price, with a perceived 20% probability that the deal could fail.
2. Mixed First Quarter 2026 Earnings and Lack of Guidance.
TXNM Energy reported mixed first quarter 2026 results on May 1, 2026, which did not provide a strong catalyst for stock movement. GAAP earnings per diluted share decreased to $0.03 from $0.10 in Q1 2025, primarily due to $16.9 million in net unrealized losses on investment securities and $5.6 million in acquisition-related costs. While ongoing earnings per diluted share slightly increased to $0.21 from $0.19 year-over-year, this figure still missed analysts' consensus estimates of $0.30 per share by $0.09. Additionally, the company's decision not to issue 2026 earnings guidance, due to the pending transaction, further limited investor clarity and forward visibility.
3. Ongoing Regulatory Filings and Substantial Capital Investment Plans.
TXNM Energy's utilities have made progress on significant regulatory and capital investment fronts. In April 2026, PNM, a subsidiary, implemented the second phase of rate increases, adding an average of $6.23 to monthly residential bills. Furthermore, PNM submitted a comprehensive plan to the NMPRC detailing a $4.9 billion five-year capital investment strategy, including 800 MW of wind, 240 MW of solar, and 610 MW of battery storage, to meet an anticipated 40% increase in demand by 2032. Texas-New Mexico Power Company (TNMP) also filed a comprehensive rate settlement in May 2026, seeking recovery of a $2.8 billion rate base. While these initiatives underscore long-term growth potential and rate base expansion, their immediate impact on stock price is muted given the overarching acquisition scenario.
4. Stable Analyst Sentiment Reflecting Acquisition Price.
Analyst ratings since February 28, 2026, consistently reflect a "Hold" consensus, with price targets closely clustered around the $61.25 acquisition price. This indicates that the market has largely priced in the expected acquisition, leaving little room for significant independent stock appreciation or depreciation based on day-to-day operational news or broader market trends. The stability in analyst ratings and price targets reinforces the sideways trading pattern, suggesting that investors are awaiting the final outcome of the Blackstone deal rather than reacting to other fundamental developments.
Show less
TXNM Energy (TXNM) stock has lost about 5% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Overhang of Pending Acquisition by Blackstone Infrastructure.
The primary reason for TXNM Energy's stable stock price is the pending acquisition by Blackstone Infrastructure, announced on May 19, 2025, for $61.25 per share. Regulatory approvals from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the Public Utility Commission of Texas were received in February 2026, but approvals from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and New Mexico Public Regulation Commission are still outstanding. Analysts have issued a consensus "Hold" rating, with median price targets ranging from $61.13 to $61.25, aligning closely with the acquisition price and indicating limited upside until the deal's anticipated closing in the second half of 2026. The stock is largely trading as a function of the acquisition price, with a perceived 20% probability that the deal could fail.
2. Mixed First Quarter 2026 Earnings and Lack of Guidance.
TXNM Energy reported mixed first quarter 2026 results on May 1, 2026, which did not provide a strong catalyst for stock movement. GAAP earnings per diluted share decreased to $0.03 from $0.10 in Q1 2025, primarily due to $16.9 million in net unrealized losses on investment securities and $5.6 million in acquisition-related costs. While ongoing earnings per diluted share slightly increased to $0.21 from $0.19 year-over-year, this figure still missed analysts' consensus estimates of $0.30 per share by $0.09. Additionally, the company's decision not to issue 2026 earnings guidance, due to the pending transaction, further limited investor clarity and forward visibility.
3. Ongoing Regulatory Filings and Substantial Capital Investment Plans.
TXNM Energy's utilities have made progress on significant regulatory and capital investment fronts. In April 2026, PNM, a subsidiary, implemented the second phase of rate increases, adding an average of $6.23 to monthly residential bills. Furthermore, PNM submitted a comprehensive plan to the NMPRC detailing a $4.9 billion five-year capital investment strategy, including 800 MW of wind, 240 MW of solar, and 610 MW of battery storage, to meet an anticipated 40% increase in demand by 2032. Texas-New Mexico Power Company (TNMP) also filed a comprehensive rate settlement in May 2026, seeking recovery of a $2.8 billion rate base. While these initiatives underscore long-term growth potential and rate base expansion, their immediate impact on stock price is muted given the overarching acquisition scenario.
4. Stable Analyst Sentiment Reflecting Acquisition Price.
Analyst ratings since February 28, 2026, consistently reflect a "Hold" consensus, with price targets closely clustered around the $61.25 acquisition price. This indicates that the market has largely priced in the expected acquisition, leaving little room for significant independent stock appreciation or depreciation based on day-to-day operational news or broader market trends. The stability in analyst ratings and price targets reinforces the sideways trading pattern, suggesting that investors are awaiting the final outcome of the Blackstone deal rather than reacting to other fundamental developments.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.6% change in TXNM stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -4.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 58.60 | 57.06 | -2.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,166 | 2,188 | 1.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.0% | 6.7% | -4.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 42.2 | 42.7 | 1.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 109 | 110 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.6% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TXNM | -2.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.2% | 6.3% |
| Sector (XLU) | -5.6% | 42.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.0% change in TXNM stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -20.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 57.62 | 57.06 | -1.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,109 | 2,188 | 3.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.4% | 6.7% | -20.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 34.9 | 42.7 | 22.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 107 | 110 | -2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.0% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TXNM | -1.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 4.1% |
| Sector (XLU) | 0.2% | 33.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 3.6% change in TXNM stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 70.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 55.09 | 57.06 | 3.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,017 | 2,188 | 8.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.1% | 6.7% | -33.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.1 | 42.7 | 70.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 93 | 110 | -15.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 3.6% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TXNM | 3.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 28.1% | 17.5% |
| Sector (XLU) | 12.4% | 35.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 37.5% change in TXNM stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 150.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 41.50 | 57.06 | 37.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,350 | 2,188 | -6.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.9% | 6.7% | -24.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.1 | 42.7 | 150.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 86 | 110 | -21.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 37.5% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TXNM | 37.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 85.7% | 26.3% |
| Sector (XLU) | 51.1% | 43.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TXNM Return | -3% | 10% | -12% | 23% | 23% | -3% | 38% |
| Peers Return | 13% | 21% | 17% | -8% | 13% | 5% | 74% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TXNM Win Rate | 33% | 58% | 25% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 63% | 52% | 48% | 55% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TXNM Max Drawdown | -10% | -7% | -14% | -16% | -10% | -5% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -23% | -36% | -28% | -22% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: FE, ES, HE, GNE, SO.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TXNM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -45.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1705 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -11.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.2% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -20.2% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.3% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -18.4% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.6% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 174 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -70.4% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 238.1% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 977 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -24.1% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.7% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1996 days | 47 days |
In The Past
TXNM Energy's stock fell -6.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 6.7% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | TXNM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -45.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1705 days | 140 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -20.2% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.3% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -70.4% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 238.1% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 977 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -24.1% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.7% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1996 days | 47 days |
In The Past
TXNM Energy's stock fell -6.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 6.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About TXNM Energy (TXNM)
TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) is an electric utility company that provides electricity and related services across the United States, primarily serving customers in New Mexico and Texas. The company caters to a broad customer base, including residential, commercial, and industrial clients, acting as a crucial provider of power to end-users in its service territories.
TXNM operates through two distinct segments: Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) and Texas-New Mexico Power Company (TNMP). The PNM segment is a vertically integrated utility, involved in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity within New Mexico, utilizing a diverse portfolio of energy sources including fossil fuels, nuclear, and renewables like solar, wind, geothermal, and battery storage. In contrast, the TNMP segment focuses solely on providing regulated electricity transmission and distribution services in Texas, without engaging in power generation.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for TXNM Energy:
- TXNM Energy is like a regional Duke Energy or Southern Company, a regulated utility providing essential electricity services to homes and businesses in New Mexico and Texas.
- Think of TXNM Energy as the AT&T or Verizon of electricity for New Mexico and Texas, but instead of phone signals, they deliver power through a vast network of lines.
- TXNM Energy is similar to a scaled-down NextEra Energy, serving as a full-service utility that generates and distributes electricity, increasingly from renewable sources like solar and wind.
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- Electricity Generation: Producing electricity using a diverse portfolio of energy sources including coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, solar, wind, geothermal, and battery storage.
- Electricity Transmission Services: Operating and maintaining the high-voltage grid that transports electricity over long distances to load centers.
- Electricity Distribution Services: Delivering electricity from the transmission grid to residential, commercial, and industrial end-users through local power lines.
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TXNM Energy (TXNM) serves primarily individuals and businesses directly as end-users of electricity. Its major customer categories are:
- Residential Customers: Individuals and households consuming electricity for domestic use.
- Commercial Customers: Businesses and organizations using electricity for commercial operations, such as offices, retail stores, and service industries.
- Industrial Customers: Large-scale manufacturing and industrial facilities requiring significant electricity for production processes.
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Don Tarry
President and CEO
Don Tarry became the President and CEO of TXNM Energy, Inc. effective July 1, 2025. He joined the company in 1996 and has held various leadership roles, including President and Chief Operating Officer, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Vice President, Controller and Treasurer, and Vice President of Customer Service and Chief Information Officer. He holds a Bachelor of Accountancy from New Mexico State University, graduating with honors.
Henry E. Monroy
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Henry E. Monroy was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of TXNM Energy on May 20, 2025. He joined the company in 2003 and has served as Vice President of PNM Regulatory and Vice President and Corporate Controller (from 2020 to 2023), among other leadership positions in accounting and finance. He is a Certified Public Accountant in New Mexico and holds a bachelor's degree in accounting from New Mexico State University.
Patricia K. Collawn
Executive Chair
Patricia K. Collawn transitioned to Executive Chair of TXNM Energy's Board of Directors effective July 1, 2025, after serving as CEO. She joined the company in 2007 and has over 30 years of experience in the utility industry. Prior to TXNM Energy, she served as President and CEO of Public Service Company of Colorado, a subsidiary of Xcel Energy. She also held management positions with Price Waterhouse and Quaker Oats. She was the first female chairman of the Edison Electric Institute (EEI). She holds a bachelor's degree in journalism from Drake University and an MBA from Harvard Business School.
Brian Iverson
General Counsel, Senior Vice President Regulatory and Public Policy, and Corporate Secretary
Brian Iverson joined TXNM Energy in September 2024. He oversees the legal, regulatory, public policy, and supply chain teams. Before joining TXNM Energy, he spent 20 years at Black Hills Corporation, a publicly traded utility company, where he held various leadership roles, including Senior Vice President, General Counsel, and Chief Compliance Officer. He holds a Juris Doctor, an MBA, and a BSBA in Accounting from the University of South Dakota.
Monique Jacobson
Senior Vice President, Corporate Services
Monique Jacobson joined TXNM Energy in 2025 and oversees the Customer Experience, Human Resources, and Chief Information Officer functions. She has 25 years of experience across public and private sectors. Before joining TXNM Energy, she owned and operated two consulting companies and served as Cabinet Secretary for the New Mexico Tourism Department and the Children, Youth and Families Department.
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Key Risks to the Business:
- Regulatory and Political Risks: As TXNM Energy, Inc. operates in a heavily regulated industry within New Mexico and Texas, changes in energy policy, rate regulation, environmental regulations, or political decisions can significantly impact its operations, financial performance, and ability to recover costs or make necessary investments. This includes risks related to rate case outcomes, environmental compliance expenditures, and governmental mandates for renewable energy integration.
- Transition to Clean Energy and Associated Costs: While TXNM Energy utilizes renewable sources, its generation portfolio still includes coal, natural gas, oil, and nuclear fuel. The increasing pressure for decarbonization, stricter environmental regulations, and the eventual retirement of fossil fuel plants will necessitate substantial capital expenditures for new renewable energy infrastructure and may result in stranded asset costs for existing non-renewable generation assets. This transition presents significant investment and execution challenges.
- Commodity Price Volatility: The company's reliance on coal, natural gas, and oil for electricity generation exposes it to significant fluctuations in the market prices of these commodities. Such volatility can directly impact the cost of fuel for electricity generation, thereby affecting operational expenses and overall profitability, particularly if these costs cannot be fully recovered through regulated rates or existing contracts.
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The clear emerging threat for TXNM Energy is the increasing adoption of decentralized energy generation and storage solutions by its customers. As the cost of rooftop solar panels and battery storage continues to decline, residential, commercial, and industrial customers may increasingly choose to generate a significant portion of their own electricity and reduce their reliance on the utility's grid for energy supply. This trend poses a threat to TXNM Energy's Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) segment, which generates electricity, by reducing demand for its traditionally generated power. While the Texas-New Mexico Power Company (TNMP) segment primarily provides regulated transmission and distribution services, widespread customer self-generation can also lead to decreased electricity sales across the system and challenges for utilities to recover fixed grid costs from a potentially shrinking or less reliant customer base.
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TXNM Energy (symbol: TXNM) operates in the electricity and electric services markets in New Mexico and Texas. The addressable markets for its main products and services are as follows:
* **New Mexico:** The addressable market for electricity generation, transmission, and distribution services in New Mexico, based on total retail sales, was approximately **$2.78 billion USD** in 2024. This figure is derived from the total retail sales of 30,296,354 megawatt-hours (MWh) and an average retail price of 9.18 cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in the region.
* **Texas:** The addressable market for electric utility services, which includes transmission and distribution services provided by TXNM Energy's subsidiary TNMP, was approximately **$52.91 billion USD** as of February 28, 2026. This represents the total electric utility revenue in Texas.
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TXNM Energy (symbol: TXNM) anticipates several key drivers to fuel its revenue growth over the next two to three years:
- Significant Capital Investments and Corresponding Rate Base Growth: TXNM Energy plans substantial capital expenditures, with a forecast of $7.8 billion in investments from 2025 through 2029. This is expected to translate into a 12% rate base growth through 2029 from its 2025 base. These investments include projects like the System Resiliency Plan for its Texas-New Mexico Power Company (TNMP) segment, with $546 million planned through 2027, and TNMP's share of ERCOT's Permian Basin Reliability Study projects, estimated at approximately $750 million by 2030. Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) also has approved grid modernization investments totaling $344 million, with $291 million expected through 2028. TNMP is projected to be a particularly strong contributor to rate base growth, with an anticipated increase of over 14% annually through 2027.
- Robust Customer and Load Growth, Particularly in Texas from Data Centers: The company is experiencing strong demand-based load growth, especially in its Texas service territory. TNMP has continued to set new system peak records, with an 18% increase over the 2023 peak recorded in December. A significant portion of this growth is attributed to data centers in the north and West Texas regions, which accounted for over 600 megawatts of demand on TNMP's system by the end of 2024. Furthermore, interconnection requests were up 6% compared to the previous year, signaling continued growth expectations, particularly in the Gulf Coast area. Overall retail load growth across both the PNM and TNMP utilities is expected to contribute to earnings.
- Timely Recovery of Capital Investments Through Regulatory Mechanisms and Rate Adjustments: TXNM Energy is focused on maximizing its authorized returns on investments and minimizing regulatory lag. In New Mexico, a stipulation for PNM's 2025 Rate Request was recommended for approval, which includes a $105.0 million increase to revenue requirements based on a 9.45% return on equity. This rate increase is scheduled to be implemented in two phases: 50% effective July 1, 2025, and the remaining portion on April 1, 2026. For TNMP in Texas, the company utilizes Transmission Cost of Service (TCOS) and Distribution Cost Recovery Factor (DCRF) mechanisms to allow for more timely recovery of costs between rate reviews. TNMP also filed a general rate proceeding with the Public Utility Commission of Texas in November 2025.
- Strategic Investments in Clean Energy Transition and New Generation Resources: The company is committed to investing in infrastructure that supports the transition to clean energy and meets customer needs. PNM is planning for new energy resources, including a proposed $220 million capital investment by 2028 that encompasses the extension of a power purchase agreement, the addition of 300 MW of battery storage capacity, and the installation of a 130 MW solar and battery storage facility. TXNM Energy forecasts a need for at least 500 megawatts of new capacity by 2030 and is focused on improving transmission capabilities to deliver clean energy and enhance grid resilience.
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Capital Allocation Decisions (2021-2025)
Share Issuance
- TXNM Energy completed its 2024 equity needs of approximately $100 million through an at-the-market (ATM) program.
- In 2024, the company issued $500 million of 5.75% junior subordinated convertible notes due 2054.
- Blackstone Infrastructure is investing $400 million through the purchase of 8 million newly issued shares of TXNM Energy common stock at $50 per share, via a private placement agreement, expected to close in June 2025.
Inbound Investments
- A proposed $4.3 billion acquisition of PNM Resources by Avangrid (a subsidiary of Iberdrola) was terminated in January 2024, following a protracted legal and regulatory dispute.
- In May 2025, TXNM Energy announced an agreement for Blackstone Infrastructure to acquire the company for $61.25 per share in cash, reflecting a total enterprise value of $11.5 billion, including net debt and preferred stock. This transaction is progressing, having received approvals from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the Public Utility Commission of Texas.
Capital Expenditures
- TXNM Energy has a 5-year capital investment plan (2025-2029) of $7.8 billion, representing a 26% increase over its previous plan and projecting a 12% rate base growth through 2029. Earlier in 2024, the capital expenditure outlook was $6.1 billion, primarily focused on Texas investments.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes investments in utility-owned battery storage, grid modernization, and expanding the transmission grid to deliver clean energy, enhance customer satisfaction, and increase grid resilience.
- TNMP's 2025-2027 System Resiliency Plan, approved in March 2025, involves a $545.8 million investment over three years to enhance the safety and reliability of its distribution system, including wildfire mitigation and enhanced operations technology.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 51.76 |
| Mkt Cap | 16.2 |
| Rev LTM | 8,511 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,627 |
| FCF LTM | -276 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -956 |
| CFO LTM | 1,904 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,651 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 3.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 24.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -4.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -7.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 16.2 |
| P/S | 1.8 |
| P/Op Inc | 12.0 |
| P/EBIT | 11.3 |
| P/E | 23.3 |
| P/CFO | 9.4 |
| Total Yield | 6.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -3.7% |
| D/E | 1.0 |
| Net D/E | 1.0 |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) | 1,484 | 1,379 | 1,404 | 1,767 | 1,362 |
| Texas-New Mexico Power Company (TNMP) | 681 | 592 | 535 | 483 | 418 |
| Corporate and Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Total | 2,166 | 1,971 | 1,939 | 2,250 | 1,780 |
| $ Mil | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas-New Mexico Power Company (TNMP) | 150 | 136 | 100 | 88 | 86 |
| Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) | 83 | 261 | 221 | 215 | 61 |
| Corporate and Other | -2 | -4 | -13 | -18 | -3 |
| Total | 231 | 394 | 308 | 285 | 144 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas-New Mexico Power Company (TNMP) | 124 | 104 | 95 | 92 | 64 |
| Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) | 87 | 192 | 36 | 103 | 156 |
| Corporate and Other | -60 | -53 | -43 | -26 | -24 |
| Total | 151 | 242 | 88 | 170 | 196 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) | 7,688 | 7,407 | 6,813 | 6,272 | 6,060 |
| Texas-New Mexico Power Company (TNMP) | 4,188 | 3,649 | 3,145 | 2,747 | 2,365 |
| Corporate and Other | 183 | 155 | 295 | 239 | 242 |
| Total | 12,059 | 11,212 | 10,253 | 9,257 | 8,667 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $57.06 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 6.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 08/10/1984 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -4.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $58.72 | $57.67 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -2.8% | -1.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 6.5% | 4.9% |
| Downside Capture | 5.63 | 4.95 |
| Upside Capture | -0.49 | 7.90 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 4.0% | 15.0% |
TXNM Betas & Captures as of 5/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.03 | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.06 | 0.29 |
| Up Beta | -0.11 | -0.10 | -0.12 | -0.07 | 0.07 | 0.41 |
| Down Beta | 0.25 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.31 |
| Up Capture | -1% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 7% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 23 | 32 | 63 | 128 | 380 |
| Down Capture | -13% | -18% | -2% | -3% | 2% | 33% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 16 | 28 | 57 | 114 | 356 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TXNM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXNM | 4.3% | 4.9% | 0.02 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 14.6% | 14.7% | 0.71 | 34.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.5% | 12.4% | 1.61 | 15.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.2% | 27.5% | 0.77 | 6.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.8% | 18.8% | 0.83 | -3.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.7% | 0.52 | 25.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -40.0% | 42.5% | -1.08 | -4.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TXNM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXNM | 6.4% | 14.8% | 0.25 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 9.5% | 17.3% | 0.40 | 41.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.1% | 0.62 | 25.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.3% | 0.76 | 8.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 19.4% | 0.29 | 8.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.9% | 18.9% | 0.00 | 34.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.0% | 54.2% | 0.40 | 10.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TXNM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXNM | 8.2% | 22.0% | 0.34 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 9.3% | 19.3% | 0.41 | 65.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 45.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.3% | 16.1% | 0.63 | 12.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.9% | 18.0% | 0.26 | 16.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 58.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.8% | 1.00 | 13.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/4/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/1/2026 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 2/27/2026 | -0.2% | -0.3% | -1.4% |
| 10/31/2025 | -0.0% | 0.4% | 2.1% |
| 8/1/2025 | -0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| 5/9/2025 | 0.4% | 1.1% | 7.4% |
| 2/21/2025 | 3.5% | -1.1% | 5.0% |
| 11/1/2024 | -2.9% | 2.8% | 12.7% |
| 7/31/2024 | -0.2% | -3.5% | -1.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 0.7% | 1.2% | 3.5% |
| Median Negative | -0.3% | -0.9% | -1.2% |
| Max Positive | 4.2% | 7.7% | 12.7% |
| Max Negative | -2.9% | -3.5% | -3.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/1/2026 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 2/27/2026 | -0.2% | -0.3% | -1.4% |
| 10/31/2025 | -0.0% | 0.4% | 2.1% |
| 8/1/2025 | -0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| 5/9/2025 | 0.4% | 1.1% | 7.4% |
| 2/21/2025 | 3.5% | -1.1% | 5.0% |
| 11/1/2024 | -2.9% | 2.8% | 12.7% |
| 7/31/2024 | -0.2% | -3.5% | -1.8% |
| 4/30/2024 | 0.0% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 2/6/2024 | 4.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% |
| 10/27/2023 | -1.9% | -3.3% | -3.8% |
| 8/4/2023 | -0.5% | -0.7% | 0.5% |
| 5/5/2023 | 1.2% | -0.0% | -2.9% |
| 2/24/2023 | 0.0% | -0.6% | -1.3% |
| 11/4/2022 | 0.5% | 1.3% | 4.5% |
| 8/4/2022 | -0.6% | 0.2% | -0.4% |
| 4/28/2022 | 0.7% | -2.6% | -0.1% |
| 2/3/2022 | 1.5% | 1.6% | 3.0% |
| 10/29/2021 | -0.0% | -2.5% | -1.0% |
| 7/30/2021 | 0.0% | -0.1% | 3.5% |
| 4/30/2021 | -0.4% | 0.1% | -0.9% |
| 2/26/2021 | -0.3% | -1.6% | 2.0% |
| 10/30/2020 | 1.0% | -0.4% | -0.8% |
| 7/31/2020 | 0.7% | 2.9% | 5.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 0.7% | 1.2% | 3.5% |
| Median Negative | -0.3% | -0.9% | -1.2% |
| Max Positive | 4.2% | 7.7% | 12.7% |
| Max Negative | -2.9% | -3.5% | -3.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/01/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/01/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/31/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/01/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/02/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/01/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/02/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 6/11/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bailey, Vicky A | Trust | Sell | 11182025 | 57.74 | 1,800 | 103,932 | 503,782 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bailey, Vicky A | Trust | Sell | 11182025 | 57.74 | 1,800 | 103,932 | 503,782 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Utilities Resources |
| Data.gov Energy Infrastructure |
| Data.gov Energy Resources |
| Utility Dive |
| Electric Utilities Resources |
| T&D World |
| Edison Electric Institute (EEI) |
| Smart Energy International |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 6/19/2026