Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.4%, Dist 3Y High is -0.4%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 94%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 19%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -0.6%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -41%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.4%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, and US LNG.
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -30%
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 19%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, and US LNG.
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.4%, Dist 3Y High is -0.4%
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -0.6%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -41%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 94%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.4%
7 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -30%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TXNM Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The stock of TXNM Energy (symbol: TXNM) experienced movements between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, influenced by several key developments: 1. 1. Shareholder approval of Blackstone Infrastructure acquisition. Shareholders overwhelmingly approved the proposed acquisition of TXNM Energy by Blackstone Infrastructure on August 28, 2025. The transaction is valued at $61.25 per share and is expected to close in the second half of 2026, subject to regulatory approvals. 2. 2. Mixed Q3 2025 earnings report. On October 31, 2025, TXNM Energy reported its third-quarter 2025 results, with GAAP earnings of $1.22 per diluted share, a decrease from the prior year. The company's ongoing earnings were $1.33 per diluted share, slightly down from Q3 2024, and missed analysts' expectations of $1.52 per share by 12.50%. However, ongoing net earnings for the quarter increased. 3.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TXNM Return-2%-3%10%-12%23%22%38%
Peers Return-11%10%20%16%-13%9%29%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TXNM Win Rate50%33%58%25%67%70% 
Peers Win Rate40%47%50%42%37%57% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TXNM Max Drawdown-41%-5%-3%-12%-16%-5% 
Peers Max Drawdown-25%-11%-12%-29%-22%-7% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FE, ES, HE, GNE, IMSR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTXNMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-16.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven19.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven370 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-46.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven86.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1886 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-25.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven34.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven393 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-81.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven448.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2651 days1480 days

Compare to FE, ES, HE, GNE, IMSR


In The Past

TXNM Energy's stock fell -16.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/13/2023. A -16.0% loss requires a 19.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About TXNM Energy (TXNM)

Better Bets than TXNM Energy (TXNM)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TXNM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.9%-0.9%-0.9%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
1.9%1.9%0.0%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.4%7.4%-3.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.9%-0.9%-0.9%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
1.9%1.9%0.0%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.4%7.4%-3.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for TXNM Energy

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TXNMFEESHEGNEIMSRMedian
NameTXNM Ene.FirstEne.Eversour.Hawaiian.Genie En.Terrestr. 
Mkt Price58.2145.2365.9711.1714.409.6029.81
Mkt Cap6.226.124.51.90.4-6.2
Rev LTM2,10914,46913,1493,08048302,595
Op Inc LTM4212,7442,9232221-15322
FCF LTM-642-1,225-52412435-11-268
FCF 3Y Avg-598-1,411-1,78911356--598
CFO LTM5853,6083,84046343-10524
CFO 3Y Avg5422,5632,57248864-542

Growth & Margins

TXNMFEESHEGNEIMSRMedian
NameTXNM Ene.FirstEne.Eversour.Hawaiian.Genie En.Terrestr. 
Rev Chg LTM10.6%7.6%13.1%3.3%13.1%-10.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg0.4%6.6%4.1%-3.9%17.4%-4.1%
Rev Chg Q13.7%11.2%5.1%-5.1%23.6%-11.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.8%3.0%1.2%-1.4%5.8%-3.0%
Op Mgn LTM20.0%19.0%22.2%7.2%0.2%-12,071.6%13.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg19.2%17.2%21.4%-14.7%5.0%-17.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.5%0.2%0.3%6.6%-1.1%-0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM27.8%24.9%29.2%15.0%9.0%-8,232.4%20.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg26.5%18.6%20.6%15.3%14.9%-18.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-30.4%-8.5%-4.0%4.0%7.2%-8,894.8%-6.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-29.5%-10.5%-14.9%3.5%13.2%--10.5%

Valuation

TXNMFEESHEGNEIMSRMedian
NameTXNM Ene.FirstEne.Eversour.Hawaiian.Genie En.Terrestr. 
Mkt Cap6.226.124.51.90.4-6.2
P/S2.91.82.00.60.8-1.8
P/EBIT12.69.09.87.239.7-9.8
P/E34.219.919.7111.180.6-34.2
P/CFO10.47.36.94.19.0-7.3
Total Yield4.2%8.8%9.1%1.4%1.2%-4.2%
Dividend Yield1.2%3.8%4.1%0.5%0.0%-1.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-13.3%-6.3%-7.9%7.7%13.9%--6.3%
D/E0.91.01.11.60.0-1.0
Net D/E0.91.01.11.3-0.3-1.0

Returns

TXNMFEESHEGNEIMSRMedian
NameTXNM Ene.FirstEne.Eversour.Hawaiian.Genie En.Terrestr. 
1M Rtn2.3%-1.8%-11.3%-3.5%-2.7%-37.9%-3.1%
3M Rtn3.4%5.2%5.4%-10.1%-2.8%-3.4%
6M Rtn4.4%12.9%3.2%9.5%-33.4%-4.4%
12M Rtn21.4%13.8%12.9%9.7%-1.7%-12.9%
3Y Rtn32.0%23.5%-10.3%-71.8%52.0%-23.5%
1M Excs Rtn2.3%-1.7%-11.3%-3.4%-2.7%-37.8%-3.0%
3M Excs Rtn-2.2%-0.3%-0.1%-15.0%-9.2%--2.2%
6M Excs Rtn-10.3%-1.8%-11.5%-5.2%-48.1%--10.3%
12M Excs Rtn8.8%-2.8%-6.2%-6.0%-17.4%--6.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-40.5%-43.4%-80.9%-144.2%-17.2%--43.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM)1,4041,7671,3621,1401,094
Texas-New Mexico Power Company (TNMP)535483418383364
Corporate and Other00   
Total1,9392,2501,7801,5231,458


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Texas-New Mexico Power Company (TNMP)9592645956
Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM)3610315614541
Corporate and Other-43-26-24-31-19
Total8817019617377


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM)6,8136,2726,0605,5815,243
Texas-New Mexico Power Company (TNMP)3,1452,7472,3652,1331,860
Corporate and Other295239242226195
Total10,2539,2578,6677,9407,299


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,687,872
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120250.6%
Average Daily Volume748,112
Days-to-Cover Short Interest7.60
Basic Shares Quantity107,361,000
Short % of Basic Shares5.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251031202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025801202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241101202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024802202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024503202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231027202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0BAILEY VICKY A11182025Sell57.741,800103,932503,782Form