Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.2%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -48%
Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.4%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%
  Key risks
MGEE key risks include [1] uncertainty in rate case outcomes with the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin impacting its ability to recover investments and [2] the financial and execution challenges of its capital-intensive transition to achieve net-zero carbon electricity by 2050.
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 20%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.2%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 20%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -48%
5 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.4%
6 Key risks
MGEE key risks include [1] uncertainty in rate case outcomes with the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin impacting its ability to recover investments and [2] the financial and execution challenges of its capital-intensive transition to achieve net-zero carbon electricity by 2050.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MGEE Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Persistent Market Underperformance

MGE Energy (MGEE) shares significantly underperformed the broader market and its industry peers during the period. As of early November 2025, the stock had lost approximately 11.4% year-to-date, contrasting sharply with the S&P 500's gain of 15.1%. The company's stock also underperformed the UTY (utilities) index by approximately 23.4% since December 2024. 2. Negative Analyst Sentiment and Downgrades

The consensus among Wall Street research analysts for MGE Energy was a "Reduce" rating, with a higher proportion of "hold" and "sell" recommendations compared to "buy" ratings. Over a 90-day period leading up to December 2025, MGE Energy's stock experienced two downgrades versus one upgrade from analysts. Morgan Stanley notably reiterated an "underweight" rating on October 22, 2025. 3. Unfavorable Earnings Estimate Revisions

Ahead of its third-quarter 2025 earnings report, MGE Energy experienced an unfavorable trend in earnings estimate revisions. This negative revision trend contributed to the stock receiving a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), indicating expectations for the stock to underperform the market in the near future. 4. Q3 2025 Revenue Miss

While MGE Energy's Q3 2025 earnings per share of $1.22 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.19, the company's reported revenues of $175.68 million fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.07%. This revenue miss likely contributed to investor caution despite the earnings beat. 5. Repeated 52-Week Lows

The stock experienced significant downward pressure, repeatedly hitting new 52-week lows in late November and early December 2025. This included reaching $81.05 USD on November 19, 2025, and further dropping to $80.46 USD on December 1, 2025, with a 1-year total return of -19.34%. These recurrent lows reflect strong negative market sentiment and contribute to the stock's overall decline during the period.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MGEE Return-9%20%-13%5%33%-13%16%
Peers Return2%13%0%-8%19%13%42%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MGEE Win Rate50%67%42%50%42%33% 
Peers Win Rate48%52%55%58%55%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MGEE Max Drawdown-31%-9%-23%-4%-14%-16% 
Peers Max Drawdown-22%-11%-15%-17%-9%-3% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WEC, LNT, AEE, CMS, XEL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMGEES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-27.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven38.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven652 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-34.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven52.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven526 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-23.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven30.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven436 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-23.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven30.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven140 days1,480 days

Compare to TAC, NWE, OTTR, AVA, EE


In The Past

MGE Energy's stock fell -27.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/19/2022. A -27.6% loss requires a 38.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About MGE Energy (MGEE)

Better Bets than MGE Energy (MGEE)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MGEE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.9%-0.9%-2.4%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-0.8%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.7%6.7%-3.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.9%-0.9%-2.4%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-0.8%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.7%6.7%-3.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for MGE Energy

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MGEEWECLNTAEECMSXELMedian
NameMGE Ener.WEC Ener.Alliant .Ameren CMS Ener.Xcel Ene. 
Mkt Price81.31104.7665.4898.5370.2673.1477.22
Mkt Cap3.033.616.826.621.143.323.8
Rev LTM7269,3074,2758,9588,29514,2288,626
Op Inc LTM1662,3291,0501,8641,7172,6371,790
FCF LTM-321541,154-1,248-1,719-5,149-640
FCF 3Y Avg-1151978-1,284-1,180-2,465-590
CFO LTM2973,3271,1543,2142,1604,5382,687
CFO 3Y Avg2512,8489782,7962,2084,8692,502

Growth & Margins

MGEEWECLNTAEECMSXELMedian
NameMGE Ener.WEC Ener.Alliant .Ameren CMS Ener.Xcel Ene. 
Rev Chg LTM8.3%7.9%7.8%22.7%11.0%3.4%8.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg2.0%1.4%1.7%7.0%0.1%-0.8%1.6%
Rev Chg Q4.3%13.4%11.9%24.2%15.9%7.4%12.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.0%2.6%3.1%6.2%3.5%1.9%2.9%
Op Mgn LTM22.9%25.0%24.6%20.8%20.7%18.5%21.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg21.7%23.5%22.7%20.8%18.2%18.2%21.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.2%-0.2%0.1%1.5%0.7%0.5%0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM40.9%35.7%27.0%35.9%26.0%31.9%33.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg35.7%31.5%23.8%34.6%28.2%34.1%32.8%
FCF/Rev LTM-4.4%1.6%27.0%-13.9%-20.7%-36.2%-9.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-0.0%1.8%23.8%-16.2%-14.8%-17.4%-7.4%

Valuation

MGEEWECLNTAEECMSXELMedian
NameMGE Ener.WEC Ener.Alliant .Ameren CMS Ener.Xcel Ene. 
Mkt Cap3.033.616.826.621.143.323.8
P/S4.23.94.13.22.63.43.6
P/EBIT16.413.614.512.610.817.214.1
P/E22.922.121.220.021.024.921.6
P/CFO10.411.015.08.810.210.510.4
Total Yield6.5%7.5%7.7%7.7%6.0%6.6%7.1%
Dividend Yield2.2%3.0%3.0%2.7%1.2%2.6%2.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.0%0.4%6.4%-5.4%-6.2%-5.7%-2.7%
D/E0.30.60.70.70.80.70.7
Net D/E0.30.60.60.70.80.70.7

Returns

MGEEWECLNTAEECMSXELMedian
NameMGE Ener.WEC Ener.Alliant .Ameren CMS Ener.Xcel Ene. 
1M Rtn-0.8%-6.4%-3.8%-5.8%-5.6%-10.0%-5.7%
3M Rtn-2.2%-3.3%3.3%0.3%0.6%1.5%0.4%
6M Rtn-7.5%2.5%10.8%5.9%3.7%11.2%4.8%
12M Rtn-13.3%14.4%13.5%14.4%8.0%11.0%12.3%
3Y Rtn22.2%22.6%32.9%23.4%24.9%15.9%23.0%
1M Excs Rtn-1.5%-7.1%-4.6%-6.6%-6.4%-10.8%-6.5%
3M Excs Rtn-4.1%-4.9%2.1%-0.8%-0.5%-0.0%-0.6%
6M Excs Rtn-19.9%-9.8%-1.6%-6.5%-8.7%-1.2%-7.6%
12M Excs Rtn-26.1%2.1%0.8%1.8%-3.5%-0.1%0.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-47.6%-49.3%-40.2%-49.1%-47.4%-55.2%-48.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Electric491465421394409
Gas216283208156176
Non-Regulated Energy4242424141
All Others00000
Transmission Investment00000
Consolidation/Elimination-58-76-64-53-57
Total690715607539569


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Electric7665645146
Non-Regulated Energy2222212120
Gas1418161414
Transmission Investment87777
Consolidation/Elimination00   
All Others-2-1-2-1-1
Total1181111069287


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity741,104
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520257.6%
Average Daily Volume131,337
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.64
Basic Shares Quantity36,542,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/20251.4%1.1%-5.0%
8/6/2025-0.8%0.6%1.3%
5/7/20250.7%-1.4%-3.0%
2/25/20251.2%0.1%-2.3%
11/6/20247.2%17.7%11.6%
8/7/2024-0.6%-0.4%2.6%
5/8/20240.5%2.1%-2.1%
2/21/20240.9%-2.0%16.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131213
# Negative9109
Median Positive0.9%1.3%4.2%
Median Negative-1.0%-1.9%-4.4%
Max Positive7.2%17.7%16.6%
Max Negative-5.4%-3.6%-17.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022222202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021