Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 2.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.5%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.7%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -15%
Significant short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 17.78
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
Key risks
OTTR key risks include [1] regulatory and operational challenges to its significant capital investment strategy in its Electric segment and [2] earnings volatility from the cyclical nature of its non-utility Manufacturing and Plastics segments.
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Water Infrastructure. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Wind Energy Development, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 2.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.5%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Water Infrastructure. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Wind Energy Development, Show more.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -15%
6 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.7%
8 Significant short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 17.78
9 Key risks
OTTR key risks include [1] regulatory and operational challenges to its significant capital investment strategy in its Electric segment and [2] earnings volatility from the cyclical nature of its non-utility Manufacturing and Plastics segments.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

OTTR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for Otter Tail (OTTR) stock movement for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: **1. Strong Q2 2025 Earnings Exceeding Expectations and Raised Guidance.** Otter Tail Corporation announced its second-quarter 2025 financial results on August 5, 2025, beating analysts' expectations for both diluted earnings per share and revenue. The company raised its 2025 earnings guidance midpoint to $6.26 from $5.88, signaling increased confidence in its growth prospects. Following this announcement, Otter Tail's stock price surged by 6.14%.

**2. Positive Q3 2025 Earnings Performance and Further Increased Guidance.** In early November 2025, Otter Tail Corporation reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings, which again outpaced expectations. Concurrently, the company increased and tightened its 2025 diluted earnings per share guidance to a new range of $6.32 to $6.62, up from the previous guidance. This consistent outperformance and optimistic outlook contributed to positive investor sentiment.

**3. Expanded Capital Investment Plan and Long-Term Growth Targets.** Otter Tail introduced an updated five-year capital spending plan, increasing planned investments to $1.9 billion, a notable increase from an earlier $1.4 billion plan. This revised plan projects a compounded annual growth rate of 10% for its rate base and updated its long-term earnings per share growth rate target to 7% to 9%. These substantial investments, particularly in renewable energy and transmission assets, underscore the company's commitment to future growth and shareholder returns.

**4. Progress in Regulatory Matters and Rate Cases.** Otter Tail continued to actively manage its regulatory environment. The company secured approval for its fully settled North Dakota general rate case in the fourth quarter of 2024, providing a net annual revenue requirement increase. Additionally, a new Minnesota rate case seeking a net revenue increase of $44.8 million was filed in Q3 2025, indicating ongoing efforts to secure appropriate returns on its utility investments.

**5. Consistent and Increased Dividend Payouts.** Otter Tail maintained its long history of quarterly dividend payments, with an ex-dividend date of November 14, 2025, for a dividend of $0.525 per share, payable on December 10, 2025. The increase in the quarterly dividend from $0.4675 in Q4 2024 to $0.525 for 2025 further demonstrated the company's financial health and commitment to providing shareholder value.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
OTTR Return-14%73%-16%48%-11%18%94%
Peers Return-14%15%-0%-6%17%14%22%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
OTTR Win Rate42%92%50%75%50%58% 
Peers Win Rate50%58%45%48%53%63% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
OTTR Max Drawdown-35%-7%-24%-0%-12%-2% 
Peers Max Drawdown-33%-6%-17%-17%-10%-6% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ALE, BKH, IDA, NWE, MGEE. See OTTR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventOTTRS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-35.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven54.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven251 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-40.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven69.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven535 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-17.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven21.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven139 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-66.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven200.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven3,256 days1,480 days

Compare to IDA, TAC, ALE, HE, EE


In The Past

Otter Tail's stock fell -35.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/18/2022. A -35.1% loss requires a 54.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Otter Tail (OTTR)

Better Bets than Otter Tail (OTTR)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to OTTR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.9%-0.9%-2.4%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-0.8%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.7%6.7%-3.2%
OTTR_3312023_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%03312023OTTROtter TailQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
6.2%22.1%-3.6%
OTTR_9302022_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%09302022OTTROtter TailQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
19.2%26.5%-13.8%
OTTR_1312022_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%01312022OTTROtter TailQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
13.1%3.9%-14.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.9%-0.9%-2.4%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-0.8%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.7%6.7%-3.2%
OTTR_3312023_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%03312023OTTROtter TailQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
6.2%22.1%-3.6%
OTTR_9302022_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%09302022OTTROtter TailQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
19.2%26.5%-13.8%
OTTR_1312022_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%01312022OTTROtter TailQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
13.1%3.9%-14.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Otter Tail

Peers to compare with:

Financials

OTTRALEBKHIDANWEMGEEMedian
NameOtter Ta.ALLETE Black Hi.Idacorp NorthWes.MGE Ener. 
Mkt Price86.0467.9070.59126.4665.7481.3175.95
Mkt Cap3.63.95.16.94.03.04.0
Rev LTM1,2991,5002,2721,8061,5707261,535
Op Inc LTM345139530342357166343
FCF LTM107-322-105-410-122-32-114
FCF 3Y Avg1136790-388-129-133
CFO LTM419343658600401297410
CFO 3Y Avg416478753469411251443

Growth & Margins

OTTRALEBKHIDANWEMGEEMedian
NameOtter Ta.ALLETE Black Hi.Idacorp NorthWes.MGE Ener. 
Rev Chg LTM-3.2%-4.3%7.0%-1.9%4.9%8.3%1.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-4.4%0.4%-0.1%5.3%3.9%2.0%1.2%
Rev Chg Q-3.7%-7.9%7.1%-0.8%12.1%4.3%1.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.0%-2.1%1.3%-0.2%2.7%1.0%0.4%
Op Mgn LTM26.5%9.2%23.3%18.9%22.8%22.9%22.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg27.4%9.6%21.4%18.4%21.3%21.7%21.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.6%-0.8%-0.2%0.7%0.2%0.2%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM32.2%22.8%29.0%33.3%25.6%40.9%30.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg31.4%28.4%32.7%25.9%27.1%35.7%29.9%
FCF/Rev LTM8.2%-21.5%-4.6%-22.7%-7.8%-4.4%-6.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg8.6%2.5%3.6%-21.4%-8.5%-0.0%1.2%

Valuation

OTTRALEBKHIDANWEMGEEMedian
NameOtter Ta.ALLETE Black Hi.Idacorp NorthWes.MGE Ener. 
Mkt Cap3.63.95.16.94.03.04.0
P/S2.62.62.04.02.34.22.6
P/EBIT9.321.18.415.49.716.412.6
P/E12.323.315.722.516.622.919.6
P/CFO8.211.36.811.99.010.49.7
Total Yield10.6%8.6%10.7%7.1%10.5%6.5%9.6%
Dividend Yield2.5%4.3%4.3%2.6%4.5%2.2%3.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.5%2.8%2.7%-6.8%-3.9%-0.0%1.4%
D/E0.30.61.00.50.90.30.5
Net D/E0.20.61.00.50.90.30.5

Returns

OTTRALEBKHIDANWEMGEEMedian
NameOtter Ta.ALLETE Black Hi.Idacorp NorthWes.MGE Ener. 
1M Rtn5.0%0.7%1.5%-1.1%1.8%-0.8%1.1%
3M Rtn4.6%5.8%21.9%1.6%18.8%-2.2%5.2%
6M Rtn14.2%7.3%28.8%12.8%31.5%-7.5%13.5%
12M Rtn15.6%8.6%22.8%16.1%31.7%-13.3%15.9%
3Y Rtn59.8%20.8%17.2%31.3%33.8%22.2%26.8%
1M Excs Rtn4.2%-0.1%0.8%-1.8%1.1%-1.5%0.4%
3M Excs Rtn1.8%4.6%20.1%0.0%16.3%-4.1%3.2%
6M Excs Rtn1.8%-5.1%16.4%0.5%19.1%-19.9%1.1%
12M Excs Rtn5.3%-2.5%9.9%4.0%24.1%-26.1%4.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-14.9%-50.6%-54.8%-40.7%-36.8%-47.6%-44.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Electric2,5342,3522,2842,2331,932
Corporate293178575454
Manufacturing251246251191196
Plastics16412616310092
Total3,2432,9022,7552,5782,274


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,852,237
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-4.6%
Average Daily Volume272,892
Days-to-Cover Short Interest17.78
Basic Shares Quantity41,877,000
Short % of Basic Shares11.6%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/20255.2%9.3%6.6%
8/5/20256.2%4.7%10.6%
5/6/2025-6.8%-3.4%-4.7%
2/18/20256.1%5.9%7.8%
11/5/20243.8%3.7%2.4%
8/6/2024-2.1%-4.4%-12.0%
5/7/2024-0.4%2.0%-0.1%
2/13/2024-9.8%-9.5%-16.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141717
# Negative1077
Median Positive5.6%5.9%6.6%
Median Negative-3.4%-4.4%-10.9%
Max Positive10.7%16.9%13.6%
Max Negative-9.8%-20.4%-24.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024219202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023214202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231103202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022215202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021216202210-K 12/31/2021