Polaris (PII)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $65.85 | Market Cap: $3.7 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Leisure Products
Polaris (PII)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $65.85Market Cap: $3.7 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Leisure Products
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -65%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -106% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.5% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 4.5%, FCF Yield is 18% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.2% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Experiential Retail, Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 4.5%, FCF Yield is 18% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Experiential Retail, Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -65%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -106% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.5% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.2% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PII Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The Polaris Inc. (PII) stock experienced significant movements between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025. During the period, Polaris reported its Q3 2025 earnings, announced strategic changes, and saw varied analyst sentiments.
Here are five key points highlighting the stock's movement:
1. Strong Q2 2025 Earnings Beat. Polaris Inc. reported second-quarter 2025 financial results on July 29, 2025, surpassing analyst expectations for both revenue and earnings per share (EPS). The company reported Q2 2025 revenue of $1.85 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.74 billion, and posted $0.40 in EPS, significantly higher than the analyst estimate of $0.0015. This performance led to a pre-market stock surge of approximately 7.7% and contributed to a 20.9% gain in Polaris shares over the preceding month.
2. Q3 2025 Earnings Performance and Guidance. On October 28, 2025, Polaris reported its third-quarter 2025 results, with adjusted EPS of $0.41, beating the consensus estimate of $0.37, and revenue of $1.84 billion, surpassing analyst estimates of $1.68 billion. The company's revenue was up 6.9% compared to the same quarter last year. However, Polaris reported a net loss of $15.8 million for the quarter, compared to a net income of $27.7 million in the previous year. The company projects adjusted sales for the full year 2025 to be between $6.9 billion and $7.1 billion, with an expected adjusted loss per share of approximately $0.05.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PII Return | -4% | 18% | -6% | -4% | -37% | 21% | -22% |
| Peers Return | 12% | 23% | -28% | 19% | -12% | 1% | 5% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PII Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 50% | 33% | 33% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 58% | 33% | 53% | 48% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PII Max Drawdown | -61% | 0% | -14% | -16% | -38% | -44% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -54% | -1% | -39% | -9% | -23% | -33% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BC, WGO, CMCO, HAS, MAT. See PII Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PII | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -43.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -62.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 164.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -46.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 811 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -74.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 295.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 407 days | 1480 days |
Compare to BC, WGO, CMCO, HAS, MAT
In The Past
Polaris's stock fell -43.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/23/2021. A -43.7% loss requires a 77.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Polaris Earnings Notes | |||
| Can Polaris Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | Return | ||
| PII's One-Week Rally Offers a Chance to Reevaluate JNJ | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| PII's 11% Single Week Rise Brings Valuations Into Focus - Is GM a Better Deal? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| PII's One-Week Rally Offers a Chance to Reevaluate GOLF | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| How Does Polaris Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Better Bet Than PII Stock: Pay Less Than Polaris To Get More From GOOGL, KO | |||
| Better Bet Than PII Stock: Pay Less Than Polaris To Get More From BKNG, RCL | |||
| Better Bet Than PII Stock: Pay Less Than Polaris To Get More From GOLF, YETI | |||
| PII Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | October 25th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PII. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 03312020 | PII | Polaris | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 92.1% | 184.1% | -19.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 03312020 | PII | Polaris | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 92.1% | 184.1% | -19.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Polaris
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 52.12 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.2 |
| Rev LTM | 4,770 |
| Op Inc LTM | 212 |
| FCF LTM | 519 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 398 |
| CFO LTM | 697 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 670 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -6.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.2 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/EBIT | -11.6 |
| P/E | -2.6 |
| P/CFO | 7.7 |
| Total Yield | 1.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 13.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 21.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -2.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -15.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 7.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -17.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -86.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10222024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7232024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4232024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2162024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10242023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7252023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4252023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2172023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10252022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7262022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4262022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2152022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |