Polaris (PII)
Market Price (5/19/2026): $63.99 | Market Cap: $3.7 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Leisure Products
Polaris (PII)
Market Price (5/19/2026): $63.99Market Cap: $3.7 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Leisure Products
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 4.1% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Experiential Retail, Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -62%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -110% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 52% Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.4% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12% Key risksPII key risks include [1] weakening consumer demand impacting sales and earnings, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 4.1% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Experiential Retail, Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -62%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -110% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 52% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.4% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12% |
| Key risksPII key risks include [1] weakening consumer demand impacting sales and earnings, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Polaris (PII) stock has remained largely at the same level since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Polaris significantly surpassed analyst expectations in its first-quarter 2026 earnings report, released on April 27, 2026. The company reported an Adjusted EPS of $0.13, substantially beating the consensus estimate of -$0.43 to -$0.41 by $0.56. Additionally, quarterly revenue increased by 8.0% year-over-year to $1.66 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.63 billion. This strong financial performance, demonstrating improved profitability, led to a 7.4% surge in Polaris's stock on April 28, 2026.
2. The company's reassurance regarding tariff impacts and reaffirmation of its full-year 2026 guidance alleviated investor uncertainty. On April 16, 2026, Polaris announced that recent tariff policy changes were not expected to materially affect its 2026 full-year guidance, crediting a robust U.S. manufacturing presence and strengthened domestic supplier relationships. This announcement led to a 10.74% gain in the stock price on the day it was published. Furthermore, during the Q1 2026 earnings call, Polaris demonstrated operational resilience by improving gross margins by 389 basis points despite a 240 basis point headwind from tariffs, coupled with a 277 basis point increase in Adjusted EBITDA margins.
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1. Polaris significantly surpassed analyst expectations in its first-quarter 2026 earnings report, released on April 27, 2026. The company reported an Adjusted EPS of $0.13, substantially beating the consensus estimate of -$0.43 to -$0.41 by $0.56. Additionally, quarterly revenue increased by 8.0% year-over-year to $1.66 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.63 billion. This strong financial performance, demonstrating improved profitability, led to a 7.4% surge in Polaris's stock on April 28, 2026.
2. The company's reassurance regarding tariff impacts and reaffirmation of its full-year 2026 guidance alleviated investor uncertainty. On April 16, 2026, Polaris announced that recent tariff policy changes were not expected to materially affect its 2026 full-year guidance, crediting a robust U.S. manufacturing presence and strengthened domestic supplier relationships. This announcement led to a 10.74% gain in the stock price on the day it was published. Furthermore, during the Q1 2026 earnings call, Polaris demonstrated operational resilience by improving gross margins by 389 basis points despite a 240 basis point headwind from tariffs, coupled with a 277 basis point increase in Adjusted EBITDA margins.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 1.4% change in PII stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 4.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 63.13 | 63.98 | 1.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,986 | 7,275 | 4.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.5 | 0.5 | -1.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 57 | 57 | -0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1.4% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PII | 1.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | 26.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | -3.8% | 29.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.1% change in PII stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -4.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 64.70 | 63.98 | -1.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,986 | 7,275 | 4.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.5 | 0.5 | -4.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 57 | 57 | -0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.1% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PII | -1.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.9% | 31.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | -2.7% | 34.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 98.2% change in PII stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 91.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 32.29 | 63.98 | 98.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,975 | 7,275 | 4.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 0.5 | 91.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 57 | 57 | -0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 98.2% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PII | 98.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 34.7% | 35.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | 18.9% | 40.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -33.8% change in PII stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -19.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 96.61 | 63.98 | -33.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,987 | 7,275 | -19.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.6 | 0.5 | -18.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 57 | 57 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -33.8% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PII | -33.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 84.5% | 41.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | 61.2% | 45.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PII Return | 18% | -6% | -4% | -37% | 16% | 3% | -20% |
| Peers Return | 27% | -15% | 28% | -21% | -0% | -5% | 4% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PII Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 33% | 33% | 58% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 32% | 48% | 47% | 52% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PII Max Drawdown | -29% | -26% | -39% | -42% | -44% | -34% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -34% | -28% | -31% | -36% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: HOG, TXT, BC, THO, WGO. See PII Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PII | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 85 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -11.7% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.3% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 17 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -14.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 21 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -57.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 136.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -27.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -49.4% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 97.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 679 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Polaris's stock fell -30.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 42.9% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | PII | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 85 days | 79 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -57.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 136.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -27.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -49.4% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 97.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 679 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -51.2% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.9% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1854 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -24.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -69.7% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 229.5% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 220 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -21.6% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.5% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 900 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Polaris's stock fell -30.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 42.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Polaris (PII)
Polaris Inc. designs, engineers, manufactures, and markets power sports vehicles worldwide. It operates through six segments: ORV, Snowmobiles, Motorcycles, Global Adjacent Markets, Aftermarket, and Boats. The company offers off-road vehicles (ORVs), including all-terrain vehicles and side-by-side vehicles; snowmobiles and snow bikes conversion kit systems; motorcycles; and low emission, light duty hauling, passenger, and industrial vehicles. It also produces replacement parts and accessories comprising winches, bumper/brushguards, plows, racks, wheels and tires, pull-behinds, cab systems, lighting and audio systems, cargo box accessories, tracks, and oil for ORVs; snowmobile accessories, which comprise covers, traction products, electric starters, reverse kits, tracks, bags, windshields, oil, and lubricants; and motorcycle accessories, including e saddle bags, handlebars, backrests, exhausts, windshields, seats, oil, and various chrome accessories. In addition, the company offers gear and apparel, such as helmets, jackets, gloves, pants, hats, goggles, boots, bibs, and leathers; off-road Jeep and truck accessories; and pontoon and deck boats. The company provides its products through dealers and distributors, and online; and aftermarket parts, garments, and accessories through 101 brick-and-mortar retail centers, call centers, and e-commerce sites. The company was formerly known as Polaris Industries Inc. Polaris Inc. was founded in 1954 and is headquartered in Medina, Minnesota.
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- It's like Harley-Davidson, but for dirt, snow, and water too.
- Essentially, a specialized Honda or Yamaha that makes only powersports vehicles like motorcycles, ATVs, snowmobiles, and boats.
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- Off-Road Vehicles (ORVs): Includes all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) and side-by-side vehicles for various terrains.
- Snowmobiles & Snow Bikes: Designs and manufactures snowmobiles and snow bike conversion kit systems.
- Motorcycles: Produces a range of motorcycles.
- Specialized Vehicles: Offers low emission, light duty hauling, passenger, and industrial vehicles.
- Boats: Manufactures pontoon and deck boats.
- Aftermarket Parts & Accessories: Provides replacement parts and accessories for ORVs, snowmobiles, and motorcycles.
- Gear & Apparel: Sells helmets, jackets, gloves, pants, and other protective gear and clothing.
- Off-road Jeep & Truck Accessories: Offers specialized accessories for off-road Jeep and truck customization.
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Polaris Inc. primarily sells its products to individuals through a network of independent dealers and distributors, as well as directly for aftermarket parts and apparel. The major categories of ultimate customers that Polaris serves are:
- Recreational and Outdoor Enthusiasts: This category includes individuals and families who purchase Polaris's off-road vehicles (ORVs), snowmobiles, motorcycles, and boats for leisure, adventure, and outdoor activities such as trail riding, hunting, fishing, boating, and touring.
- Commercial and Utility Operators: This segment comprises individuals and businesses that utilize Polaris's ORVs (particularly side-by-sides) and specialized "low emission, light duty hauling, passenger, and industrial vehicles" for work-related applications. These customers include farmers, ranchers, property managers, landscapers, and various light industrial users who need reliable vehicles for tasks like transport, hauling, and site management.
- Powersports Lifestyle & Commuter Consumers: These are individuals who engage with Polaris's brands, such as Indian Motorcycles, for personal expression, community involvement, and as a lifestyle choice. While often recreational, this category emphasizes brand loyalty, customization, and the cultural aspects associated with owning and riding specific types of powersports vehicles, potentially including some commuter use.
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Michael T. Speetzen, Chief Executive Officer
Michael T. Speetzen was appointed CEO of Polaris in April 2021, having previously served as interim CEO from January to April 2021. He joined Polaris in August 2015 as Executive Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer. Before his time at Polaris, Speetzen was Senior Vice President and CFO of Xylem, Inc. since 2011, a company formed from the spinoff of ITT Corporation's water businesses; he joined ITT in 2009. Prior to ITT, he held the role of Executive Vice President and CFO for StandardAero Company, which was owned by the private equity firm Dubai Aerospace Enterprise. Speetzen also held finance positions of increasing responsibility at Honeywell and General Electric. He currently serves on the Board of Directors of Pentair.
Robert P. Mack, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President of Finance and Corporate Development
Robert P. Mack was named Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Polaris in May 2021, after serving as interim CFO since January 2021. He joined Polaris in April 2016 as Senior Vice President of Corporate Development and Strategy, and President of Adjacent Markets. Before joining Polaris, Mack spent 20 years at Ingersoll Rand, where he held the position of Vice President, Corporate Development, with global responsibility for acquisition and divestiture activities. His tenure at Ingersoll Rand included various roles in sales, finance, M&A, and operations. Mack is a certified public accountant (inactive) and currently serves on the Board of Directors of West Marine, where he chairs the Audit Committee.
James P. Williams, Senior Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer
James P. Williams serves as the Senior Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer at Polaris.
Tony J. Kinsman, Chief Technology Officer and Vice President of Off Road Engineering
Tony J. Kinsman holds the titles of Chief Technology Officer and Vice President of Off Road Engineering at Polaris.
Marc D. Suárez, Vice President of Global Operations
Marc D. Suárez is the Vice President of Global Operations for Polaris.
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The key risks to Polaris Inc. (PII) include the following:
- Sensitivity to Economic Cycles and Consumer Discretionary Spending: The powersports industry is highly susceptible to economic downturns and fluctuations in consumer discretionary spending. As products like off-road vehicles, snowmobiles, and motorcycles are often considered significant discretionary purchases, a tightening of consumer finances or a soft consumer demand directly impacts sales and profitability. This sensitivity is identified as a core challenge, leading to concerns about declining North American retail sales and overall revenue.
- Impact of Tariffs and Regulatory/Environmental Changes: Polaris faces significant financial pressure from tariffs, with expected incremental impacts potentially reaching hundreds of millions of dollars, which can erode margins and create competitive disadvantages. Beyond tariffs, the company is subject to stringent governmental safety and environmental regulations concerning vehicle emissions, fuel economy, noise levels, and product use restrictions. Increasing compliance costs or new restrictions can negatively affect operations, increase expenses, and potentially decrease product popularity and sales.
- Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Intense Market Competition: Polaris relies on a complex global supply chain for timely delivery of materials and components. Disruptions due to trade restrictions, labor disputes, or catastrophic events can lead to production delays, impact manufacturing schedules, and hinder the ability to meet customer demand. Furthermore, the powersports market is highly competitive, driven by product innovation, styling, technology, and pricing. Intense competition and elevated promotional spending can put pressure on gross margins and market share.
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The clear emerging threat for Polaris is the accelerating shift towards electrification in the powersports and outdoor recreation vehicle markets. Just as the iPhone introduced a new technological paradigm that disrupted traditional mobile phone manufacturers, the rise of electric off-road vehicles (ORVs), snowmobiles, motorcycles, and boats presents a fundamental challenge to Polaris's predominantly internal combustion engine (ICE) product lines. Competitors, including major players like BRP and dedicated electric vehicle startups, are investing heavily and bringing increasingly competitive electric models to market across Polaris's core segments. This trend threatens to shift consumer preferences, potentially rendering traditional ICE models less desirable or subject to increasing regulatory pressures, thereby disrupting Polaris's existing product portfolio, manufacturing processes, and aftermarket ecosystem.
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Addressable Markets for Polaris's Main Products and Services
-
Off-Road Vehicles (ORVs), All-Terrain Vehicles (ATVs), and Side-by-Side Vehicles (SxS/UTVs):
- Globally, the ATV and UTV market size was valued at approximately USD 11.95 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 21.60 billion by 2033. Separately, the global off-road vehicles market size was valued at USD 21.9 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow to USD 46.9 billion by 2034.
- In the U.S., the off-road vehicles market size was valued at USD 12.1 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 24.8 billion by 2034.
-
Snowmobiles:
- Globally, the snowmobile market size was estimated at USD 1.67 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 2.33 billion by 2030. Another report indicates the global snowmobile market size was valued at USD 2.05 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach USD 3.27 billion by 2033.
- North America held over 78% of the global snowmobile market revenue share in 2022.
-
Motorcycles:
- Globally, the motorcycle market size was approximately USD 75.46 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 118.90 billion by 2034.
- In the U.S., the motorcycle market was valued at approximately USD 21.45 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 31.75 billion by 2032.
-
Boats (Pontoon and Deck Boats):
- For pontoon boats, the global market size was valued at USD 8.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 17.7 billion by 2034.
- For pontoon boats in North America, the market accounted for 61% of the global revenue share in 2024 and is projected to exceed USD 11 billion by 2034.
- For deck boats, the global market size was valued at USD 2.1 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 4 billion by 2034.
- North America dominates the deck boat market, accounting for approximately 60% of global sales.
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Polaris (PII) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several strategic initiatives and market dynamics:
- Product Innovation and New Product Launches: Polaris continues to emphasize research and development, with new models consistently driving market share gains and attracting new customers across its segments. Recent examples include the RZR XPS, Ranger 500, and Polaris Expedition in Off-Road, and the Bennington QX and Godfrey Sandpan in Marine. This ongoing pipeline of innovative products is expected to fuel sales.
- Growth in Core High-Growth Segments (Off-Road and Marine): The company has demonstrated strong performance and market share gains in its Off-Road Vehicles (ORV) and Marine segments. Strategic expansions within the Marine sector, such as new pontoon products, and the introduction of value-tier ORVs like the RANGER 500, are anticipated to continue driving revenue growth by broadening customer accessibility and enhancing market presence.
- Expansion of Parts, Garments & Accessories (PG&A) Sales: Polaris has seen significant growth in its consolidated Parts, Garments & Accessory (PG&A) sales. Initiatives like the successful reintroduction of the Factory Authorized Clearance program have effectively boosted retail demand for these offerings, which include replacement parts, accessories, gear, and apparel across its product lines.
- Strategic Focus and Optimization Post-Indian Motorcycle Separation: With the expected separation of Indian Motorcycle, Polaris aims to streamline its operations and concentrate on higher-margin opportunities within its core segments, including Off-Road, Snowmobiles, Marine, and Slingshot. This strategic pivot is anticipated to lead to more efficient revenue generation and improved profitability from its focused portfolio.
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Share Repurchases
- Polaris authorized a new share repurchase program of up to $1 billion in October 2023, supplementing approximately $204 million remaining from a prior April 2021 authorization.
- As of June 30, 2025, Polaris was authorized to repurchase up to an additional $1,109.3 million of common stock, with no expiration date on the program.
- Annual share buybacks were $178.6 million in 2023, $82.7 million in 2024, and $2.4 million in 2025.
Share Issuance
- Polaris's shares outstanding have generally trended downwards in recent years, decreasing from 61 million in 2021 to 56.9 million at the end of 2025, indicating that share repurchases have generally outpaced any issuances.
- In January 2026, the CEO received 243,275 employee stock options and acquired 65,446 shares of common stock.
Outbound Investments
- Polaris announced the planned divestiture of its Indian Motorcycle brand to Carolwood, expected in the first quarter of 2026.
- The company's capital allocation strategy includes acquisitions as one of its priorities, alongside organic investment, dividend growth, and share repurchases.
Capital Expenditures
- Polaris's capital expenditures averaged $289.3 million annually from fiscal years 2021 to 2025.
- Capital expenditures peaked in December 2023 at $412.6 million and subsequently decreased to a five-year low of $182.9 million in December 2025.
- The company is actively managing capital expenditures as part of a "cash preservation playbook" and to drive operational efficiencies.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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| 04022026 | SKY | Champion Homes | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | -1.2% |
| 03312020 | PII | Polaris | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 92.1% | 184.1% | -19.0% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 68.89 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.8 |
| Rev LTM | 6,397 |
| Op Inc LTM | 280 |
| FCF LTM | 194 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 404 |
| CFO LTM | 348 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 574 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -8.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -6.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -32.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.8 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/Op Inc | 13.6 |
| P/EBIT | 8.8 |
| P/E | 12.3 |
| P/CFO | 10.9 |
| Total Yield | 6.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.9% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -9.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -11.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -7.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -18.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -92.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $63.98 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/16/1987 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -12.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $58.28 | $61.20 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 9.8% | 4.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 64.0% | 56.1% |
| Downside Capture | 129.49 | 97.12 |
| Upside Capture | 83.40 | 134.98 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 27.1% | 34.0% |
PII Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.04 | 1.03 | 1.10 | 1.17 | 1.60 | 1.24 |
| Up Beta | 0.70 | 0.89 | 1.01 | 1.05 | 1.72 | 1.35 |
| Down Beta | -2.38 | 2.10 | 1.71 | 1.62 | 2.55 | 1.18 |
| Up Capture | 59% | 72% | 76% | 85% | 174% | 91% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 24 | 33 | 60 | 128 | 362 |
| Down Capture | -400% | 87% | 112% | 115% | 98% | 108% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 19 | 31 | 65 | 122 | 388 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PII | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PII | 76.3% | 55.9% | 1.21 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 8.8% | 18.1% | 0.32 | 39.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.7% | 12.1% | 1.66 | 33.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 40.7% | 26.8% | 1.25 | 6.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 47.8% | 18.5% | 1.97 | -6.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 10.8% | 13.4% | 0.52 | 41.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -23.9% | 41.9% | -0.54 | 21.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PII | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PII | -11.9% | 42.6% | -0.17 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 7.0% | 23.8% | 0.26 | 52.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.8% | 17.1% | 0.64 | 49.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.5% | 17.9% | 0.88 | 4.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.8% | 19.4% | 0.44 | 8.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 46.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.9% | 55.9% | 0.34 | 19.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PII | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PII | -0.4% | 42.6% | 0.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.5% | 22.0% | 0.52 | 56.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 55.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.2% | 15.9% | 0.69 | 0.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.9% | 0.39 | 18.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 47.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.3% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 15.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/28/2026 | 1.1% | -0.5% | |
| 1/27/2026 | -1.9% | 1.5% | -3.5% |
| 10/14/2025 | 13.9% | 10.0% | 6.2% |
| 7/29/2025 | 16.8% | 1.9% | 13.5% |
| 4/29/2025 | 0.4% | -0.3% | 17.9% |
| 1/28/2025 | -5.0% | -10.9% | -12.6% |
| 10/22/2024 | -3.5% | 1.9% | -9.7% |
| 7/23/2024 | -6.8% | 7.4% | 8.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 13 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 3.3% | 1.9% | 5.8% |
| Median Negative | -3.0% | -3.5% | -8.6% |
| Max Positive | 16.8% | 10.0% | 19.1% |
| Max Negative | -7.9% | -10.9% | -16.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/22/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/17/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/26/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 7.15 Bil | 7.22 Bil | 7.30 Bil | ||||
| 2026 EPS | 1.6 | 1.65 | 1.7 | 6.4% | Raised | Guidance: 1.55 for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/27/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | ||||
| 2026 EPS | 1.5 | 1.55 | 1.6 | Higher New | Actual: -0.01 for 2025 | ||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mack, Robert Paul | CFO, EVP - Finance + Corp Dev | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 66.83 | 7,786 | 520,335 | 5,376,190 | Form |
| 2 | Duke, Benjamin D | President-Marine | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 66.82 | 10,090 | 674,190 | 2,020,698 | Form |
| 3 | Speetzen, Michael T | CEO | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 66.83 | 35,086 | 2,344,696 | 9,112,678 | Form |
| 4 | Williams, James P | SVP-CHRO | Direct | Sell | 2042026 | 67.17 | 5,243 | 352,172 | 3,267,485 | Form |
| 5 | Williams, James P | SVP-CHRO | Direct | Sell | 12082025 | 67.53 | 4,554 | 307,509 | 2,962,862 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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