Tearsheet

Polaris (PII)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $65.85 | Market Cap: $3.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Leisure Products

Polaris (PII)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $65.85
Market Cap: $3.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Leisure Products

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -65%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -106%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.5%
1 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 4.5%, FCF Yield is 18%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.2%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Experiential Retail, Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
1 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 4.5%, FCF Yield is 18%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Experiential Retail, Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -65%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -106%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.5%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.2%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

PII Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The Polaris Inc. (PII) stock experienced significant movements between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025. During the period, Polaris reported its Q3 2025 earnings, announced strategic changes, and saw varied analyst sentiments. Here are five key points highlighting the stock's movement: 1. Strong Q2 2025 Earnings Beat. Polaris Inc. reported second-quarter 2025 financial results on July 29, 2025, surpassing analyst expectations for both revenue and earnings per share (EPS). The company reported Q2 2025 revenue of $1.85 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.74 billion, and posted $0.40 in EPS, significantly higher than the analyst estimate of $0.0015. This performance led to a pre-market stock surge of approximately 7.7% and contributed to a 20.9% gain in Polaris shares over the preceding month.

2. Q3 2025 Earnings Performance and Guidance. On October 28, 2025, Polaris reported its third-quarter 2025 results, with adjusted EPS of $0.41, beating the consensus estimate of $0.37, and revenue of $1.84 billion, surpassing analyst estimates of $1.68 billion. The company's revenue was up 6.9% compared to the same quarter last year. However, Polaris reported a net loss of $15.8 million for the quarter, compared to a net income of $27.7 million in the previous year. The company projects adjusted sales for the full year 2025 to be between $6.9 billion and $7.1 billion, with an expected adjusted loss per share of approximately $0.05.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PII Return-4%18%-6%-4%-37%21%-22%
Peers Return12%23%-28%19%-12%1%5%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PII Win Rate42%42%50%33%33%60% 
Peers Win Rate62%58%33%53%48%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PII Max Drawdown-61%0%-14%-16%-38%-44% 
Peers Max Drawdown-54%-1%-39%-9%-23%-33% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BC, WGO, CMCO, HAS, MAT. See PII Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPIIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-43.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven77.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-62.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven164.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven116 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-46.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven87.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven811 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-74.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven295.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven407 days1480 days

Compare to BC, WGO, CMCO, HAS, MAT


In The Past

Polaris's stock fell -43.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/23/2021. A -43.7% loss requires a 77.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Polaris (PII)

Better Bets than Polaris (PII)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PII. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
PII_3312020_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG03312020PIIPolarisDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
92.1%184.1%-19.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
PII_3312020_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG03312020PIIPolarisDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
92.1%184.1%-19.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Polaris

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PIIBCWGOCMCOHASMATMedian
NamePolaris BrunswickWinnebag.Columbus.Hasbro Mattel  
Mkt Price66.6970.1137.5517.0382.4721.2352.12
Mkt Cap3.84.61.00.511.66.74.2
Rev LTM6,9865,1842,7989784,3575,2284,770
Op Inc LTM1322935740833564212
FCF LTM5815899029550488519
FCF 3Y Avg39440213343525546398
CFO LTM76973612947750659697
CFO 3Y Avg71762318964725728670

Growth & Margins

PIIBCWGOCMCOHASMATMedian
NamePolaris BrunswickWinnebag.Columbus.Hasbro Mattel  
Rev Chg LTM-9.4%-4.8%-5.9%-2.4%0.8%-2.4%-3.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-4.5%-7.7%-16.8%2.1%-10.7%-3.4%-6.1%
Rev Chg Q6.9%6.8%7.8%7.7%8.3%-5.9%7.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.7%1.7%2.1%2.0%2.5%-2.0%1.8%
Op Mgn LTM1.9%5.6%2.0%4.1%19.1%10.8%4.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg5.2%9.4%5.0%7.7%11.6%11.0%8.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%-0.5%0.2%0.1%0.4%-1.8%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM11.0%14.2%4.6%4.8%17.2%12.6%11.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg9.2%10.9%6.0%6.4%16.0%13.8%10.0%
FCF/Rev LTM8.3%11.4%3.2%3.0%12.6%9.3%8.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.2%7.1%4.2%4.4%11.7%10.3%6.1%

Valuation

PIIBCWGOCMCOHASMATMedian
NamePolaris BrunswickWinnebag.Columbus.Hasbro Mattel  
Mkt Cap3.84.61.00.511.66.74.2
P/S0.50.80.30.42.41.00.6
P/EBIT-114.4-32.016.711.1-40.48.8-11.6
P/E-21.9-17.436.3103.7-19.112.3-2.6
P/CFO4.35.67.28.714.28.17.7
Total Yield-0.0%-3.0%3.8%2.9%-1.6%8.1%1.4%
Dividend Yield4.5%2.7%1.0%1.9%3.7%0.0%2.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg9.6%8.4%9.1%5.7%5.2%8.6%8.5%
D/E0.60.60.61.10.30.50.6
Net D/E0.50.50.41.00.30.40.4

Returns

PIIBCWGOCMCOHASMATMedian
NamePolaris BrunswickWinnebag.Columbus.Hasbro Mattel  
1M Rtn2.6%6.8%1.7%6.4%9.7%15.1%6.6%
3M Rtn17.7%11.0%7.2%19.4%5.3%16.5%13.7%
6M Rtn64.8%29.8%9.7%15.5%28.3%13.8%21.9%
12M Rtn4.4%-9.3%-31.2%-55.6%31.3%12.9%-2.4%
3Y Rtn-36.0%1.4%-32.7%-46.2%49.4%14.4%-15.7%
1M Excs Rtn2.7%6.8%1.7%6.4%9.8%15.2%6.6%
3M Excs Rtn10.9%2.5%-1.4%9.5%-1.8%8.5%5.5%
6M Excs Rtn50.1%15.1%-5.0%0.8%13.6%-0.9%7.2%
12M Excs Rtn-10.5%-24.0%-46.9%-69.5%18.1%-1.9%-17.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-106.3%-69.5%-104.1%-116.3%-19.7%-54.1%-86.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Off Road6,9846,4365,575  
On Road1,1851,1631,032  
Marine765989760  
Corporate 073  
Aftermarket   885907
Boats   603621
Global Adjacent Markets   425461
Motorcycles   582584
Off-Road Vehicles (ORV)/Snowmobiles   4,5334,209
Total8,9348,5897,4397,0286,782


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8,371,469
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-10.5%
Average Daily Volume863,340
Days-to-Cover Short Interest9.70
Basic Shares Quantity56,900,000
Short % of Basic Shares14.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251028202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025729202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024218202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241022202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024723202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024423202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023216202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231024202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023725202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023425202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022217202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221025202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022726202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022426202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021215202210-K 12/31/2021