Harley-Davidson (HOG)
Market Price (5/8/2026): $23.635 | Market Cap: $2.6 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Motorcycle Manufacturers
Harley-Davidson (HOG)
Market Price (5/8/2026): $23.635Market Cap: $2.6 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Motorcycle Manufacturers
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.8% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.6 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Luxury Consumer Goods. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -74%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -108% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -10%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12% Key risksHOG key risks include [1] its struggle to attract younger riders as its core customer base ages, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.8% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.6 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Luxury Consumer Goods. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -74%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -108% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -10%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12% |
| Key risksHOG key risks include [1] its struggle to attract younger riders as its core customer base ages, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Harley-Davidson (HOG) stock has gained about 20% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Announcement of the "Back to the Bricks" Strategic Plan. Harley-Davidson unveiled its new "Back to the Bricks" strategic plan on May 5, 2026, which aims to restore performance and drive profitable growth. Key components include focusing on more affordable motorcycles like the upcoming Sprint model and the return of the Sportster in 2027, improving dealer profitability (targeting a doubling by 2026 and again by 2029), and expanding the parts and accessories business. The plan also targets over $350 million in EBITDA for Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC) by 2027.
2. Strong North American Retail Motorcycle Sales Growth and Dealer Inventory Reduction. Despite a challenging first quarter in overall financials, Harley-Davidson reported robust retail sales performance. North American retail motorcycle sales increased by 14% year-over-year in Q1 2026, contributing to an 8% rise in global retail sales. This growth was accompanied by a 22% reduction in global dealer inventory levels of new motorcycles by the end of Q1 2026, signaling healthy demand and improved dealer network alignment.
Show more
1. Announcement of the "Back to the Bricks" Strategic Plan. Harley-Davidson unveiled its new "Back to the Bricks" strategic plan on May 5, 2026, which aims to restore performance and drive profitable growth. Key components include focusing on more affordable motorcycles like the upcoming Sprint model and the return of the Sportster in 2027, improving dealer profitability (targeting a doubling by 2026 and again by 2029), and expanding the parts and accessories business. The plan also targets over $350 million in EBITDA for Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC) by 2027.
2. Strong North American Retail Motorcycle Sales Growth and Dealer Inventory Reduction. Despite a challenging first quarter in overall financials, Harley-Davidson reported robust retail sales performance. North American retail motorcycle sales increased by 14% year-over-year in Q1 2026, contributing to an 8% rise in global retail sales. This growth was accompanied by a 22% reduction in global dealer inventory levels of new motorcycles by the end of Q1 2026, signaling healthy demand and improved dealer network alignment.
Show more
Holding a concentrated position? Know your true downside before the momentum shifts.
Protect Your Wealth →
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 20.7% change in HOG stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 139.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 19.59 | 23.64 | 20.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,665 | 4,316 | -7.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.7% | 5.3% | -50.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 4.7 | 11.3 | 139.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 121 | 110 | 9.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 20.7% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HOG | 20.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 13.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.9% | 22.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.7% change in HOG stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -14.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 26.49 | 23.64 | -10.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,475 | 4,316 | -3.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.4% | 5.3% | -1.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.3 | 11.3 | -14.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 122 | 110 | 10.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.7% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HOG | -10.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 28.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | 0.3% | 32.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.8% change in HOG stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 87.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 21.72 | 23.64 | 8.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,187 | 4,316 | -16.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.8% | 5.3% | -39.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.0 | 11.3 | 87.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 126 | 110 | 14.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.8% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HOG | 8.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 31.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 22.5% | 37.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -31.4% change in HOG stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -58.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 34.47 | 23.64 | -31.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,755 | 4,316 | -25.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.9% | 5.3% | -58.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.8 | 11.3 | 66.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 146 | 110 | 32.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -31.4% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HOG | -31.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 42.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | 66.2% | 42.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HOG Return | 4% | 12% | -10% | -17% | -30% | 18% | -28% |
| Peers Return | 29% | -30% | 41% | -40% | -8% | -18% | -42% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 96% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HOG Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 25% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 56% | 30% | 48% | 35% | 52% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HOG Max Drawdown | -13% | -19% | -37% | -18% | -30% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -1% | -39% | -11% | -43% | -50% | -31% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PII, LVWR, FOXF, THO, WGO. See HOG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/7/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HOG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 127 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -18.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -56.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 128.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 207 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -28.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.4% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 757 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -36.6% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 287 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Harley-Davidson's stock fell -21.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 27.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | HOG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 127 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 24 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -56.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 128.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 207 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -28.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.4% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 757 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -36.6% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 287 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -39.2% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.4% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 308 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 165 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -38.8% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.4% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 168 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -82.0% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 454.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 866 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -25.2% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.7% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2008 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Harley-Davidson's stock fell -21.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 27.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Harley-Davidson (HOG)
Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles. The company operates in two segments, Motorcycles and Related Products and Financial Services. The Motorcycles and Related Products segment designs, manufactures, and sells Harley-Davidson motorcycles, including cruiser, touring, standard, sportbike, and dual models, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, apparel, and related services. This segment sells its products to retail customers through a network of independent dealers, as well as e-commerce channels in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The Financial Services segment provides wholesale financing services, such as floorplan and open account financing of motorcycles, and parts and accessories; and retail financing services, including installment lending for the purchase of new and used Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as point-of-sale protection products comprising motorcycle insurance, extended service contracts, and motorcycle maintenance protection. This segment also licenses third-party financial institutions that issue credit cards bearing the Harley-Davidson brand. Harley-Davidson, Inc. was founded in 1903 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Harley-Davidson (HOG):
- Harley-Davidson is like Jeep for motorcycles, given its iconic brand, strong community, and focus on a distinct type of vehicle with a passionate lifestyle following.
- Harley-Davidson is like Ford for motorcycles, as it manufactures and sells its own iconic vehicles and also provides comprehensive financial services (like Ford Credit) to support both dealers and retail customers for its products.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Motorcycles
Designs, manufactures, and sells various models of Harley-Davidson motorcycles, including cruiser, touring, standard, sportbike, and dual models.Motorcycle Parts & Accessories
Sells parts and accessories designed for Harley-Davidson motorcycles.Apparel
Sells Harley-Davidson branded apparel and related merchandise.Wholesale Financing
Provides financing services to independent dealers for their inventory of motorcycles, parts, and accessories.Retail Financing
Offers installment lending to customers for the purchase of new and used Harley-Davidson motorcycles.Protection Products
Sells point-of-sale protection products such as motorcycle insurance, extended service contracts, and motorcycle maintenance protection.Credit Card Licensing
Licenses third-party financial institutions to issue credit cards bearing the Harley-Davidson brand.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Harley-Davidson (HOG) primarily sells its motorcycles and related products to individual retail customers through its global network of independent dealers and e-commerce channels. While independent dealers serve as the crucial distribution network, the ultimate major customers for Harley-Davidson are the individual riders who purchase and use their products.
Based on its product lines and strong brand identity, Harley-Davidson serves the following key categories of individual customers:
- Core Enthusiasts and Brand Loyalists: These customers are deeply invested in the Harley-Davidson brand's rich heritage, lifestyle, and community. They often own classic cruiser or touring models, frequently purchase accessories, apparel, and actively participate in brand-related events and rallies. This segment represents the traditional, dedicated customer base.
- Lifestyle and Image Seekers: This category encompasses individuals drawn to the iconic Harley-Davidson image of freedom, adventure, and personal expression. They may be newer to riding or to the brand, for whom the motorcycle represents a significant lifestyle statement and a symbol of belonging to a broader culture.
- Adventure and Performance Riders: With its expansion into more diverse models such as adventure touring (e.g., Pan America) and sportbike offerings, Harley-Davidson is increasingly appealing to riders who prioritize specific performance characteristics, modern technology, and versatility for varied riding experiences beyond traditional cruising.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Artie Starrs, President and CEO
Artie Starrs was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Harley-Davidson, effective October 1, 2025. He joined Harley-Davidson from Topgolf Callaway Brands, where he previously served as CEO of the Topgolf International, Inc. subsidiary. Starrs is recognized for his leadership in delivering top and bottom-line growth and his experience in franchise-driven industries.
Jonathan Root, Chief Financial and Commercial Officer
Jonathan Root serves as Harley-Davidson's Chief Financial and Commercial Officer, a newly created role announced on December 10, 2025. This position combines his responsibilities as Chief Financial Officer with leadership of the Commercial organization, emphasizing dealer relations and integration with Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS). Root was promoted to President, Commercial, effective January 27, 2025, while maintaining his CFO role. He was appointed CFO in June 2023. Prior to this, he was a Senior Vice President at HDFS, where he held various leadership positions including President of Eaglemark Savings Bank and Harley-Davidson Insurance, having joined HDFS in 2011.
Bryan Niketh, Chief Operating Officer
Bryan Niketh rejoined Harley-Davidson as Chief Operating Officer, effective January 5, 2026. He brings 20 years of prior experience with the company and most recently served as President of White River Marine Group. In his current role, Niketh oversees Product Management, Product Development, and Product Operations, contributing deep institutional knowledge and renewed operational leadership.
Matt Ryan, Chief Marketing and Technology Officer
Matt Ryan was named Chief Marketing and Technology Officer, joining Harley-Davidson on December 8, 2025. He previously held the position of Chief Marketing Officer at Boyd Gaming. In his role at Harley-Davidson, Ryan is responsible for uniting the company's marketing, digital, and technology capabilities to enable data-driven marketing, integrated digital experiences, and enhanced engagement with riders and customers.
Marcus Fischer, Chief Brand Officer
Marcus Fischer assumed the role of Chief Brand Officer, effective December 8, 2025, reporting to Matt Ryan. Fischer joined Harley-Davidson from Carmichael Lynch, an agency known for creating many of the brand's iconic campaigns. He leads brand strategy, creative direction, and long-term brand positioning for the company.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The public company Harley-Davidson (symbol: HOG) faces several significant risks to its business, primarily stemming from shifting demographics and market dynamics.
- Aging Customer Base and Inability to Attract Younger Riders: Harley-Davidson's traditional demographic of older, predominantly male riders is aging out, and the company has struggled to attract new, younger customers, such as millennials and Gen Z. This demographic shift is a critical long-term challenge, as these younger generations often prioritize different values, including sustainability, technology, affordability, and lighter, more agile motorcycles, which do not align with Harley-Davidson's traditional offerings and higher price points.
- Declining Sales and Revenue: Directly related to the demographic challenges, Harley-Davidson has experienced consistent declines in retail motorcycle sales, revenue, and shipments over several years. Reports indicate double-digit drops in U.S. retail sales and overall revenue declines, reflecting a weak demand for the company's core products. This persistent decline impacts profitability and the company's financial outlook.
- Intense Competition and Shifting Market Preferences: Harley-Davidson faces aggressive competition from both established motorcycle manufacturers like Indian (Polaris), Yamaha, Honda, Ducati, and BMW, which offer a diverse range of motorcycles, often at lower price points or with advanced technology. Additionally, the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) in the motorcycle market presents a challenge. While Harley-Davidson has its own EV division (LiveWire), it has faced significant sales declines in this segment and lower profit margins compared to traditional models, as younger riders increasingly gravitate towards alternative brands and electric options.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html Emerging Threats:- Rapid Shift to Electric Motorcycles by Competitors: The accelerating global trend towards electric vehicles (EVs), including two-wheeled vehicles, represents a significant emerging threat. As competitors, both established motorcycle manufacturers and new entrants, innovate and bring to market electric motorcycles with improving range, performance, and charging infrastructure, Harley-Davidson's core business of manufacturing and selling traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) motorcycles (cruiser, touring, standard, sportbike, and dual models), as described, could face significant market share erosion and declining demand if consumer preferences shift rapidly towards electric alternatives. This technological disruption could fundamentally challenge the relevance of its established product lines, mirroring historical disruptions where new technologies displaced incumbent offerings.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Addressable Markets for Harley-Davidson's Main Products and Services
Motorcycles
- The global motorcycle market was estimated at USD 75.46 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 118.90 billion by 2034, exhibiting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.31%.
- In the United States, the motorcycle market is projected to reach an estimated value of USD 8.76 billion by 2032.
- The global motorcycle market size is also reported as USD 142.83 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach USD 166.55 billion by 2030, reflecting a 3.12% CAGR over the period.
- The "more than 800cc" engine capacity segment, relevant for Harley-Davidson, is the fastest-growing segment with a likely CAGR of 12.5% from 2025 to 2033, driven by increasing disposable incomes and a preference for premium motorcycles in developed markets like North America and Europe.
Motorcycle Parts and Accessories
- The global motorcycle accessories market was estimated at USD 18.2 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow from USD 19.3 billion in 2026 to USD 35.3 billion in 2035, at a CAGR of 6.95%.
- North America dominated the motorcycle accessories market, accounting for USD 6.3 billion in 2025 and anticipated to show a growth of 6.5% CAGR over the forecast period.
Motorcycle Apparel
- The global motorcycle apparel market was worth approximately USD 13.98 billion in 2024 and is expected to surpass USD 29.64 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 7.2% from 2025 to 2034.
- Another estimate for the global motorcycle apparel market states USD 96.74 billion in 2024, projected to grow from USD 100.8 billion in 2025 to USD 152.14 billion by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 4.2%.
- The global motorbike riding gear market size, which includes apparel, was estimated at USD 13.18 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 18.08 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 5.5% from 2025 to 2030.
Financial Services (Motorcycle Loans)
- The global motorcycle loan market size was estimated at USD 150.51 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow from USD 160.3 billion in 2025 to USD 300.96 billion by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 6.5%.
- North America is the largest market for motorcycle loans, holding approximately 45% of the global share.
- The U.S. motorcycle loan market was estimated at USD 5.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 8.1 billion by 2034, registering a CAGR of 4.5%.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Harley-Davidson (HOG) is focusing on several key areas to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, despite a challenging market environment. These drivers are primarily centered around its strategic "Hardwire" plan and efforts to diversify its offerings and geographic reach.
- Strengthening Core Segments and Expanding into New Product Categories: Harley-Davidson's "Hardwire" strategic plan (2021-2025) emphasizes concentrating on its most profitable motorcycle categories: Touring, large Cruiser, and Trike models. The company aims to solidify its leadership in these segments by offering curated product portfolios and recent model updates. Additionally, Harley-Davidson is expanding its product lineup by selectively entering new segments such as Adventure Touring, notably with the Pan America model, and within the Sport category. A significant growth driver is also the continued investment in and expansion of its electric motorcycle offerings through the LiveWire brand, aiming to attract new riders and lead the emerging electric vehicle sector.
- International Market Expansion and Partnerships: The company is actively pursuing opportunities in global markets to diversify its revenue streams beyond traditional strongholds. Growth priorities include the EU, UK, Australia, and Japan, with efforts to rebuild European market share through tailored model mixes, localized pricing, and enhanced dealer capabilities. Furthermore, Harley-Davidson is focusing on emerging markets like India and China, utilizing strategic partnerships (e.g., with Hero MotoCorp in India) to develop and introduce mid-capacity models, thereby improving market penetration in these regions.
- Growth of Higher-Margin Complementary Businesses: Harley-Davidson is broadening its higher-margin revenue streams by focusing on its Parts & Accessories, Apparel, and related services. This strategy aims to leverage the brand's global lifestyle appeal and increase the lifetime value of its customers. The company also plans to support growth across its complementary businesses through initiatives like the Harley-Davidson Certified pre-owned motorcycle program. Additionally, the Financial Services (HDFS) segment, which recorded high earnings in 2025 due to favorable credit loss provisions, is expected to continue playing a role in boosting sell-through and customer loyalty, despite a shift to a capital-light model.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- In July 2024, Harley-Davidson announced a new plan to repurchase $1 billion of its common stock through 2026, in addition to $875 million in share repurchases completed since 2022.
- The company returned $347 million to shareholders through discretionary share repurchases in 2025.
- Harley-Davidson repurchased $450 million of shares in 2024.
Inbound Investments
- In 2025, Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) formed a strategic partnership with KKR and PIMCO, involving the sale of most existing retail loan receivables and a 9.8% equity stake in HDFS.
- This transaction unlocked approximately $1.25 billion in cash for Harley-Davidson.
- HDFS is also set to sell approximately two-thirds of its future retail loan originations to KKR and PIMCO over a five-year period.
Capital Expenditures
- Harley-Davidson plans capital investments of $175 million to $200 million for 2026, with a strategic focus on growth and market expansion.
- Expected capital investments for the full year 2025 were in the range of $225 million to $250 million.
- Capital expenditures for the first half of 2025 were $65.56 million, a decrease from $87.835 million in the first half of 2024.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to HOG.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04242026 | MGM | MGM Resorts International | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -1.5% | -1.5% | -1.5% |
| 04242026 | WEN | Wendy's | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -2.5% | -2.5% | -5.3% |
| 04102026 | WHR | Whirlpool | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -0.8% | -0.8% | -4.8% |
| 04022026 | SKY | Champion Homes | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | -1.2% |
| 09302022 | HOG | Harley-Davidson | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | -3.6% | -10.2% |
| 02282021 | HOG | Harley-Davidson | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.6% | 18.0% | -5.8% |
| 06302020 | HOG | Harley-Davidson | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 53.6% | 94.4% | -4.1% |
| 12312018 | HOG | Harley-Davidson | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 13.6% | -9.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 27.77 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| Rev LTM | 3,614 |
| Op Inc LTM | 69 |
| FCF LTM | 85 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 176 |
| CFO LTM | 178 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 340 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -10.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -7.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -35.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 4.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| P/S | 0.5 |
| P/Op Inc | 12.1 |
| P/EBIT | 2.9 |
| P/E | 4.9 |
| P/CFO | 11.3 |
| Total Yield | -1.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -13.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -13.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 6.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -35.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -21.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -22.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -25.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -114.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) | 8,103 | 8,200 | 79,000 | 7,743 | |
| Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC) | 3,631 | 3,600 | 33,000 | 3,246 | |
| LiveWire | 148 | 300 | 3,514 | 62 | |
| Financial Services | 9,518 | ||||
| Motorcycles and Related Products | 2,493 | ||||
| Total | 11,882 | 12,100 | 115,514 | 11,051 | 12,011 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $23.64 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/05/1987 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -21.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $20.79 | $23.26 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | up |
| Distance from DMA | 13.7% | 1.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 45.0% | 40.1% |
| Downside Capture | -0.12 | 0.45 |
| Upside Capture | 56.54 | 68.29 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 13.9% | 29.0% |
HOG Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.21 | 0.15 | 0.35 | 0.76 | 0.96 | 1.09 |
| Up Beta | 0.72 | 0.83 | 0.74 | 1.01 | 1.24 | 1.30 |
| Down Beta | -0.81 | -0.24 | 0.35 | 0.69 | 1.12 | 0.83 |
| Up Capture | 79% | 71% | 47% | 42% | 56% | 67% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 17 | 26 | 34 | 59 | 126 | 361 |
| Down Capture | -457% | -101% | -18% | 92% | 94% | 106% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 5 | 17 | 30 | 65 | 125 | 388 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HOG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOG | 4.7% | 40.1% | 0.21 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 22.4% | 18.7% | 0.95 | 37.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.6% | 12.5% | 1.86 | 30.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 37.0% | 27.1% | 1.14 | -5.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.7% | 18.0% | 2.12 | -1.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.9% | 13.5% | 0.65 | 31.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -16.3% | 42.1% | -0.31 | 18.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HOG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOG | -11.5% | 40.4% | -0.19 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.9% | 23.8% | 0.25 | 50.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 50.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.1% | 17.9% | 0.96 | 0.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.1% | 19.1% | 0.60 | 11.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.3% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 45.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.0% | 56.0% | 0.34 | 18.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HOG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOG | -4.5% | 42.8% | 0.04 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 13.0% | 22.0% | 0.54 | 53.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 54.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.5% | 16.0% | 0.70 | 0.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.4% | 17.8% | 0.44 | 18.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 47.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.2% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 14.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/5/2026 | 8.2% | ||
| 2/10/2026 | 4.0% | 1.0% | -8.7% |
| 11/4/2025 | -6.5% | -6.9% | -12.5% |
| 7/30/2025 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 27.1% |
| 5/1/2025 | 2.8% | 2.5% | 8.0% |
| 2/5/2025 | -1.6% | -2.2% | -4.4% |
| 10/24/2024 | -7.2% | -5.6% | -3.8% |
| 7/25/2024 | 7.4% | 10.7% | 7.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 15 | 13 |
| # Negative | 7 | 6 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.4% |
| Median Negative | -6.5% | -6.2% | -8.3% |
| Max Positive | 22.1% | 18.9% | 42.9% |
| Max Negative | -15.7% | -12.8% | -12.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 HDMC global motorcycle retail sales | 0.13 Mil | 0.13 Mil | 0.14 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.13 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 HDMC global motorcycle wholesale shipments | 0.13 Mil | 0.13 Mil | 0.14 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.13 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 HDMC operating income | -40.00 Mil | -15.00 Mil | 10.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: -15.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 HDFS operating income | 45.00 Mil | 52.50 Mil | 60.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 52.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 LiveWire operating loss | -80.00 Mil | -75.00 Mil | -70.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: -75.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 175.00 Mil | 187.50 Mil | 200.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 187.50 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/10/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 HDMC global motorcycle retail sales | 0.13 Mil | 0.13 Mil | 0.14 Mil | ||||
| 2026 HDMC global motorcycle wholesale shipments | 0.13 Mil | 0.13 Mil | 0.14 Mil | ||||
| 2026 HDMC operating income | -40.00 Mil | -15.00 Mil | 10.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 HDFS operating income | 45.00 Mil | 52.50 Mil | 60.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 LiveWire operating loss | -80.00 Mil | -75.00 Mil | -70.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 175.00 Mil | 187.50 Mil | 200.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Share Repurchases | 1.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Do, Charles | Sr. Vice President, HDFSI | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 18.09 | 4,241 | 76,741 | 3,311 | Form |
| 2 | Flees, Lori Ann | Direct | Buy | 3092026 | 18.89 | 4,000 | 75,546 | 211,679 | Form | |
| 3 | Starrs, Artie | President & CEO | Direct | Buy | 3092026 | 19.10 | 15,000 | 286,500 | 286,500 | Form |
| 4 | Masood, Rafeh | Direct | Buy | 3022026 | 18.00 | 2,775 | 49,950 | 134,640 | Form | |
| 5 | Farley, Jr James D | Direct | Sell | 2262026 | 18.71 | 6,454 | 120,780 | 303,268 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.