Tearsheet

Harley-Davidson (HOG)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $21.205 | Market Cap: $2.6 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Motorcycle Manufacturers

Harley-Davidson (HOG)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $21.205
Market Cap: $2.6 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Motorcycle Manufacturers

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 12%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -76%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -118%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 102%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -16%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.7%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
  Key risks
HOG key risks include [1] its struggle to attract younger riders as its core customer base ages, Show more.
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Luxury Consumer Goods.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 18%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 12%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Luxury Consumer Goods.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -76%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -118%
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 102%
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -16%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.7%
8 Key risks
HOG key risks include [1] its struggle to attract younger riders as its core customer base ages, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

HOG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The requested time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, is in the future. Therefore, I cannot provide an analysis of actual stock movements or specific events that occurred during this time. However, based on the instruction to use the most recent information available and discuss potential factors, here are general reasons that could lead to a significant stock decline for Harley-Davidson (HOG), drawing from recent industry trends and company performance up to December 18, 2025.

1. Weak Retail Sales and Market Share Decline: A significant drop in retail motorcycle sales across key markets, particularly in North America, could lead to substantial revenue and profit declines. If Harley-Davidson continues to lose market share to competitors or if the overall motorcycle market shrinks due to changing consumer preferences or economic slowdowns, it would negatively impact investor sentiment.

2. Unfavorable Economic Conditions and Consumer Spending: A downturn in global economic conditions, rising interest rates, or high inflation could severely impact consumer discretionary spending on big-ticket items like motorcycles. If consumers delay or forgo purchases, HOG's sales volumes and financial performance would suffer.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
HOG Return0%4%12%-10%-17%-27%-36%
Peers Return41%-40%-4%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
HOG Win Rate50%50%42%50%50%25% 
Peers Win Rate32%48%35%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
HOG Max Drawdown-59%-13%-19%-37%-18%-30% 
Peers Max Drawdown-11%-43%-50% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PII, LVWR, FOXF, THO, WGO. See HOG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventHOGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-50.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven99.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-59.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven147.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven234 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-51.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven107.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-88.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven800.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,882 days1,480 days

Compare to TSLA, GM, F, HOG


In The Past

Harley-Davidson's stock fell -50.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/2/2023. A -50.0% loss requires a 99.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Harley-Davidson (HOG)

Better Bets than Harley-Davidson (HOG)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to HOG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%
HOG_6302020_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy06302020HOGHarley-DavidsonDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
53.6%94.4%-4.1%
HOG_12312018_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy12312018HOGHarley-DavidsonDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%13.6%-9.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%
HOG_6302020_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy06302020HOGHarley-DavidsonDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
53.6%94.4%-4.1%
HOG_12312018_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy12312018HOGHarley-DavidsonDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%13.6%-9.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Harley-Davidson

Peers to compare with:

Financials

HOGPIILVWRFOXFTHOWGOMedian
NameHarley-D.Polaris LiveWire Fox Fact.Thor Ind.Winnebag. 
Mkt Price21.2069.334.7817.47104.1641.4031.30
Mkt Cap2.63.91.00.75.51.21.9
Rev LTM4,6656,986251,4599,8262,7983,731
Op Inc LTM554132-83573275795
FCF LTM392581-728537390231
FCF 3Y Avg546394-93119507133264
CFO LTM550769-68124502129316
CFO 3Y Avg736717-83161655189422

Growth & Margins

HOGPIILVWRFOXFTHOWGOMedian
NameHarley-D.Polaris LiveWire Fox Fact.Thor Ind.Winnebag. 
Rev Chg LTM-16.0%-9.4%-19.0%6.2%1.4%-5.9%-7.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-5.7%-4.5%-19.7%-1.4%-12.8%-16.8%-9.2%
Rev Chg Q16.5%6.9%28.3%4.8%11.5%7.8%9.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.2%1.7%5.3%1.2%2.6%2.1%2.3%
Op Mgn LTM11.9%1.9%-330.9%3.9%3.3%2.0%2.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg12.0%5.2%-353.5%7.1%3.8%5.0%5.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM7.7%-0.1%49.8%-0.3%0.2%0.2%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM11.8%11.0%-269.2%8.5%5.1%4.6%6.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg13.6%9.2%-281.3%10.9%6.5%6.0%7.8%
FCF/Rev LTM8.4%8.3%-285.9%5.9%3.8%3.2%4.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg10.1%5.2%-313.4%8.0%5.0%4.2%5.1%

Valuation

HOGPIILVWRFOXFTHOWGOMedian
NameHarley-D.Polaris LiveWire Fox Fact.Thor Ind.Winnebag. 
Mkt Cap2.63.91.00.75.51.21.9
P/S0.70.538.80.70.60.30.6
P/EBIT5.1-114.4-14.6-4.9-16.7-4.9
P/E6.7-21.9-12.1-3.919.436.31.4
P/CFO6.14.3-14.48.210.97.26.7
Total Yield17.5%-0.0%-8.2%-25.4%5.2%3.8%1.9%
Dividend Yield2.6%4.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.0%0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg12.4%9.6%-7.7%5.6%-9.1%9.1%
D/E1.50.60.00.7-0.60.6
Net D/E1.00.5-0.00.6-0.40.5

Returns

HOGPIILVWRFOXFTHOWGOMedian
NameHarley-D.Polaris LiveWire Fox Fact.Thor Ind.Winnebag. 
1M Rtn-10.5%11.8%9.6%32.1%8.1%27.2%10.7%
3M Rtn-28.3%22.5%-10.7%-32.9%0.6%25.5%-5.0%
6M Rtn-8.0%77.0%-17.6%-29.3%22.5%33.7%7.3%
12M Rtn-30.9%20.4%-12.6%-42.5%4.5%-21.4%-17.0%
3Y Rtn-49.0%-24.9%-9.8%-81.9%37.6%-19.2%-22.0%
1M Excs Rtn-11.3%11.1%8.9%31.4%7.3%26.5%10.0%
3M Excs Rtn-29.5%21.4%-16.1%-34.8%-0.3%21.5%-8.2%
6M Excs Rtn-20.4%64.6%-30.0%-41.7%10.2%21.3%-5.1%
12M Excs Rtn-44.2%4.9%-27.8%-55.3%-9.2%-33.4%-30.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-118.2%-96.9%-87.0%-151.1%-36.3%-90.0%-93.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS)8,20079,0007,743  
Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC)3,60033,0003,246  
LiveWire3003,51462  
Financial Services   9,5187,980
Motorcycles and Related Products   2,4932,548
Total12,100115,51411,05112,01110,528


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity17,461,064
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520253.9%
Average Daily Volume2,498,499
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.99
Basic Shares Quantity120,614,000
Short % of Basic Shares14.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/2025-6.5%-6.9%-11.8%
7/30/202513.4%5.6%27.1%
5/1/20252.8%2.5%8.0%
2/5/2025-1.6%-2.2%-4.4%
10/24/2024-7.2%-5.6%-3.8%
7/25/20247.4%10.7%7.1%
4/25/2024-15.7%-12.8%-10.9%
2/8/20241.1%6.7%11.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141514
# Negative878
Median Positive8.7%8.4%10.7%
Median Negative-6.5%-5.6%-8.4%
Max Positive22.1%18.9%42.9%
Max Negative-15.7%-12.8%-11.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/25/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/26/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/27/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021