Textron (TXT)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $86.41 | Market Cap: $15.4 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Textron (TXT)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $86.41Market Cap: $15.4 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.6% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.8% | Key risksTXT key risks include [1] its significant customer concentration and dependence on U.S. Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -35%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -52% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility, Drone Technology, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.6% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility, Drone Technology, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.8% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -35%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -52% |
| Key risksTXT key risks include [1] its significant customer concentration and dependence on U.S. Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TXT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Textron (TXT) experienced fluctuations in its stock price between August 31, 2025, and December 17, 2025.
**1. Positive Q3 2025 Earnings Report:** Textron reported strong third-quarter 2025 results on October 23, 2025, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.55, surpassing analyst expectations of $1.47. Revenues also increased by 5.1% to $3.6 billion compared to the prior year. This positive earnings surprise likely contributed to upward stock movement.
**2. Increased Backlog in Bell and Textron Systems:** The company saw a significant increase in its backlog, driven by its Bell and Textron Systems segments, which suggests future revenue growth.
**3. Share Repurchases:** Textron actively returned value to shareholders through share repurchases, with $206 million in the third quarter of 2025 and $635 million year-to-date, potentially boosting investor confidence and stock demand.
**4. Raised 2025 Cash Outlook:** The company reiterated its expectation for full-year 2025 GAAP earnings per share and raised its manufacturing cash flow outlook to a range of $900 million to $1.0 billion, which was an increase of $100 million from the previous outlook. This updated positive financial outlook could have positively influenced the stock.
**5. Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets:** While some analysts maintained a "Hold" rating, the overall consensus among covering analysts in December 2025 was a "Buy" rating, with an average price target of $92.33, suggesting a potential increase in the stock price. The stock also hit a new 52-week high of $88.12 in December 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TXT Return | 9% | 60% | -8% | 14% | -5% | 15% | 99% |
| Peers Return | -13% | 17% | 20% | 6% | -3% | 23% | 54% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TXT Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 53% | 57% | 47% | 58% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TXT Max Drawdown | -51% | -6% | -25% | -13% | -6% | -21% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -37% | -8% | -10% | -17% | -14% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LMT, GD, BA, NOC, LHX. See TXT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TXT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 414 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -57.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 135.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 330 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -40.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 710 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -94.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1846.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4540 days | 1480 days |
Compare to LMT, GD, HWM, HEI, TDY
In The Past
Textron's stock fell -26.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/7/2022. A -26.0% loss requires a 35.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TXT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Textron
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 310.17 |
| Mkt Cap | 86.1 |
| Rev LTM | 46,218 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,232 |
| FCF LTM | 1,999 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,983 |
| CFO LTM | 2,972 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,000 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 86.1 |
| P/S | 1.9 |
| P/EBIT | 16.3 |
| P/E | 21.7 |
| P/CFO | 17.1 |
| Total Yield | 5.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.3% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 13.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 19.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 18.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 9.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -54.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Textron Aviation | 5,373 | 5,073 | 4,566 | 3,974 | 5,187 |
| Industrial | 3,841 | 3,465 | 3,130 | 3,000 | 3,798 |
| Bell | 3,147 | 3,091 | 3,364 | 3,309 | 3,254 |
| Textron Systems | 1,235 | 1,172 | 1,273 | 1,313 | 1,325 |
| Finance | 55 | 52 | 49 | 55 | 66 |
| Textron eAviation | 32 | 16 | |||
| Total | 13,683 | 12,869 | 12,382 | 11,651 | 13,630 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Textron Aviation | 4,542 | 4,496 | 4,390 | 4,380 | 4,692 |
| Corporate | 3,969 | 3,454 | 2,679 | 2,587 | 1,446 |
| Bell | 2,869 | 2,857 | 3,382 | 2,984 | 2,783 |
| Industrial | 2,520 | 2,555 | 2,529 | 2,500 | 2,781 |
| Textron Systems | 2,008 | 1,989 | 1,980 | 2,054 | 2,352 |
| Finance | 661 | 664 | 867 | 938 | 964 |
| Textron eAviation | 287 | 278 | |||
| Total | 16,856 | 16,293 | 15,827 | 15,443 | 15,018 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/23/2025 | -3.8% | -3.1% | -3.7% |
| 7/24/2025 | -7.2% | -10.5% | -8.9% |
| 4/24/2025 | 2.6% | 6.3% | 10.9% |
| 1/22/2025 | -3.4% | -5.4% | -10.8% |
| 10/24/2024 | -6.2% | -5.5% | -3.3% |
| 7/18/2024 | 0.6% | -2.1% | -4.6% |
| 4/25/2024 | -9.7% | -9.8% | -6.7% |
| 1/24/2024 | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 14 | 13 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.6% | 6.5% | 7.6% |
| Median Negative | -7.1% | -5.5% | -4.6% |
| Max Positive | 11.9% | 18.6% | 46.1% |
| Max Negative | -12.2% | -16.5% | -10.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-K 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2122024 | 10-K 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 10/1/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 1/1/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
