Textron (TXT)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $88.45 | Market Cap: $15.7 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Textron (TXT)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $88.45Market Cap: $15.7 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.6% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.6% | Key risksTXT key risks include [1] its significant customer concentration and dependence on U.S. Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -47% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility, Drone Technology, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.6% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility, Drone Technology, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.6% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -47% |
| Key risksTXT key risks include [1] its significant customer concentration and dependence on U.S. Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TXT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results
Textron reported robust third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 23, 2025. The company's adjusted income from continuing operations reached $1.55 per share, surpassing the $1.40 per share reported in the same quarter of the previous year and beating analysts' consensus estimates of $1.47 by $0.08. Total revenue for the quarter increased by 5%, primarily driven by gains in its Aviation, Bell, and Textron Systems segments. Textron also reaffirmed its full-year 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecast between $6.00 and $6.20 and raised its manufacturing cash flow outlook.
2. Significant Defense Contract Wins for Textron Systems and ATAC
Textron's defense businesses secured notable contracts during this period. In September 2025, ATAC was awarded a contract for up to $555 million for fleet fighter jet services and another for up to $198 million for U.S. Marine Corps F-35 adversary air. Additionally, in November 2025, ATAC was awarded a U.S. Navy Stand Off Jammer Contract valued at up to $200 million. Textron Systems also announced the sale of the first European RIPSAW M3 Robotic Ground Vehicle to Sweden in December 2025, and a TSUNAMI unmanned surface vessel to the Naval Information Warfare Center Pacific for AUKUS testing in December 2025. These contracts underscore Textron's strong position in the defense sector.
3. Advancements and Certifications in Textron Aviation
Textron Aviation continued to advance its product lines with key certifications and market expansions. In late August 2025, the company announced that the Cessna Citation CJ4 Gen 3 would offer global connectivity and a Garmin cabin upgrade for Citation CJ1 owners. The Cessna Citation Ascend program also continued to progress, with the rollout of the first production unit in September 2025 and achieving FAA certification in November 2025. These developments enhance Textron's offerings in the business jet market and signal ongoing innovation.
4. Strategic Restructuring of eAviation Division
On October 17, 2025, Textron announced it would be shutting down its Textron eAviation business unit and redistributing its electric and conventional aviation activities among its other subsidiaries, effective January 4, 2026. This strategic realignment involved absorbing the Pipistrel brand into Textron Aviation and moving defense-related eAviation research and development activities to Textron Systems. This move could be viewed positively by investors as it streamlines operations and focuses resources on core segments, potentially improving efficiency and profitability.
5. Positive Analyst Sentiment and 52-Week High
While some analysts adjusted price targets, the overall sentiment remained largely positive, with Textron's stock reaching a new 52-week high in December 2025. As of December 12, 2025, Textron (TXT) stock hit a 52-week high of $88.12-$88.18, reflecting significant investor confidence. Several analysts maintained a "Hold" or "Buy" rating for the stock, with an average price target that suggests further upside. This strong market performance and analyst outlook likely contributed to the stock's 9.1% movement.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TXT Return | 9% | 60% | -8% | 14% | -5% | 13% | 95% |
| Peers Return | -13% | 17% | 20% | 6% | -3% | 22% | 53% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TXT Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 53% | 57% | 47% | 58% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TXT Max Drawdown | -51% | -6% | -25% | -13% | -6% | -21% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -37% | -8% | -10% | -17% | -14% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LMT, GD, BA, NOC, LHX. See TXT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TXT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 414 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -57.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 135.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 330 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -40.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 710 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -94.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1846.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4,540 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to LMT, GD, HWM, HEI, TDY
In The Past
Textron's stock fell -26.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/7/2022. A -26.0% loss requires a 35.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TXT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.6% | 5.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.6% | 5.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Textron
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 307.57 |
| Mkt Cap | 85.7 |
| Rev LTM | 46,218 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,232 |
| FCF LTM | 1,999 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,983 |
| CFO LTM | 2,972 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,000 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 85.7 |
| P/S | 1.9 |
| P/EBIT | 16.3 |
| P/E | 21.7 |
| P/CFO | 17.1 |
| Total Yield | 5.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.3% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 13.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 19.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 18.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 1.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 9.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -52.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Textron Aviation | 5,373 | 5,073 | 4,566 | 3,974 | 5,187 |
| Industrial | 3,841 | 3,465 | 3,130 | 3,000 | 3,798 |
| Bell | 3,147 | 3,091 | 3,364 | 3,309 | 3,254 |
| Textron Systems | 1,235 | 1,172 | 1,273 | 1,313 | 1,325 |
| Finance | 55 | 52 | 49 | 55 | 66 |
| Textron eAviation | 32 | 16 | |||
| Total | 13,683 | 12,869 | 12,382 | 11,651 | 13,630 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Textron Aviation | 4,542 | 4,496 | 4,390 | 4,380 | 4,692 |
| Corporate | 3,969 | 3,454 | 2,679 | 2,587 | 1,446 |
| Bell | 2,869 | 2,857 | 3,382 | 2,984 | 2,783 |
| Industrial | 2,520 | 2,555 | 2,529 | 2,500 | 2,781 |
| Textron Systems | 2,008 | 1,989 | 1,980 | 2,054 | 2,352 |
| Finance | 661 | 664 | 867 | 938 | 964 |
| Textron eAviation | 287 | 278 | |||
| Total | 16,856 | 16,293 | 15,827 | 15,443 | 15,018 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/23/2025 | -3.8% | -3.1% | -3.7% |
| 7/24/2025 | -7.2% | -10.5% | -8.9% |
| 4/24/2025 | 2.6% | 6.3% | 10.9% |
| 1/22/2025 | -3.4% | -5.4% | -10.8% |
| 10/24/2024 | -6.2% | -5.5% | -3.3% |
| 7/18/2024 | 0.6% | -2.1% | -4.6% |
| 4/25/2024 | -9.7% | -9.8% | -6.7% |
| 1/24/2024 | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 14 | 13 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.6% | 6.5% | 7.6% |
| Median Negative | -7.1% | -5.5% | -4.6% |
| Max Positive | 11.9% | 18.6% | 46.1% |
| Max Negative | -12.2% | -16.5% | -10.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-K 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2122024 | 10-K 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 10/1/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 1/1/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
