Winnebago Industries (WGO)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $40.81 | Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automobile Manufacturers
Winnebago Industries (WGO)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $40.81Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automobile Manufacturers
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 9.6% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -80%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -90% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.9%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -17% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, and Luxury Consumer Goods. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Key risksWGO key risks include [1] a significant debt burden with poor interest coverage from earnings and [2] operational efficiency challenges related to managing dealer inventory and production costs. |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 9.6% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, and Luxury Consumer Goods. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -80%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -90% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.9%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -17% |
| Key risksWGO key risks include [1] a significant debt burden with poor interest coverage from earnings and [2] operational efficiency challenges related to managing dealer inventory and production costs. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
WGO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
**1. Strong Q4 Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Beat.** Winnebago Industries reported robust financial results for its fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2025, which ended August 31, 2025, with results announced on October 22, 2025. The company's net revenues increased by 7.8% from the prior year's fourth quarter, reaching $777.3 million. Notably, adjusted earnings per diluted share surged by 153.6% year-over-year to $0.71, significantly surpassing analysts' consensus estimates. This strong earnings performance was a major catalyst, with reports indicating it triggered a stock price increase of approximately 25%. Winnebago's stock price specifically increased over 10% from $31.62 to $40.64 on October 23, 2025, following this announcement.
**2. Positive Fiscal 2026 Financial Guidance.** Following the strong Q4 results, Winnebago Industries provided a positive outlook by issuing financial guidance for fiscal year 2026, projecting adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $2.00 to $2.70. This forward-looking guidance instilled confidence in the company's future performance and its ability to navigate the market.
**3. Improved Financial Health and Operational Efficiency.** The company demonstrated enhanced financial stability with a significant increase in net cash flow from operations, reaching $181.4 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025. Furthermore, Winnebago Industries improved its net leverage ratio to 3.1x at quarter-end, reflecting effective balance sheet management and operational efficiencies.
**4. Favorable RV Industry Outlook for 2026.** The broader recreational vehicle (RV) market is projected to experience an upward trend in 2026. The RV Industry Association (RVIA) forecast indicates that wholesale RV shipments are expected to rise by 2.8% over the anticipated 2025 year-end totals. This positive industry outlook, driven by factors such as easing inflation and more accessible financing, created a supportive market environment for Winnebago Industries.
**5. Significant Institutional Investor Inflows.** During the third quarter of 2025, several institutional investment firms made substantial additions to their holdings in Winnebago Industries. Notable examples include Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. with an estimated $11.97 million in added shares, Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Management LLC with approximately $9.78 million, Citadel Advisors LLC with about $7.98 million, and Royce & Associates LP with around $6.84 million. These considerable investments by major funds contributed to increased buying pressure and supported the stock's upward movement.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WGO Return | 14% | 26% | -29% | 41% | -33% | -13% | -16% |
| Peers Return | 17% | 30% | -25% | 51% | 14% | 36% | 170% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WGO Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 17% | 50% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 58% | 37% | 53% | 53% | 68% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WGO Max Drawdown | -61% | 0% | -41% | -0% | -36% | -39% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -57% | -1% | -37% | -5% | -18% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: THO, BC, REVG, LCII, PATK. See WGO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WGO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -49.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 97.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -67.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 204.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -65.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 190.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 414 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -90.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 982.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2,832 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to THO, WKHS, TSLA, GM, F
In The Past
Winnebago Industries's stock fell -49.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/17/2021. A -49.4% loss requires a 97.7% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to WGO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.4% | 6.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.4% | 6.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Winnebago Industries
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 89.63 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.3 |
| Rev LTM | 3,933 |
| Op Inc LTM | 259 |
| FCF LTM | 250 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 328 |
| CFO LTM | 330 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 397 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -8.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.3 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/EBIT | 11.3 |
| P/E | 23.6 |
| P/CFO | 9.1 |
| Total Yield | 4.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 11.2% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 16.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 11.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 33.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 11.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 42.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 16.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 8.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 21.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -32.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/22/2025 | 28.5% | 28.4% | 3.0% |
| 6/5/2025 | -6.0% | -4.2% | -8.7% |
| 3/27/2025 | 8.1% | 3.1% | -4.7% |
| 10/23/2024 | -10.8% | -0.9% | -1.2% |
| 6/20/2024 | -3.5% | -7.0% | 0.2% |
| 3/21/2024 | 6.2% | 10.3% | -4.1% |
| 10/18/2023 | -3.2% | -1.2% | 13.1% |
| 6/21/2023 | -1.3% | -0.2% | 6.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 6 | 9 |
| # Negative | 13 | 12 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 8.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% |
| Median Negative | -6.0% | -3.8% | -4.7% |
| Max Positive | 28.5% | 28.4% | 50.8% |
| Max Negative | -11.8% | -13.2% | -13.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 8312025 | 10222025 | 10-K 8/30/2025 |
| 5312025 | 6252025 | 10-Q 5/31/2025 |
| 2282025 | 3272025 | 10-Q 3/1/2025 |
| 11302024 | 12202024 | 10-Q 11/30/2024 |
| 8312024 | 10232024 | 10-K 8/31/2024 |
| 5312024 | 6202024 | 10-Q 5/25/2024 |
| 2292024 | 3212024 | 10-Q 2/24/2024 |
| 11302023 | 12202023 | 10-Q 11/25/2023 |
| 8312023 | 10182023 | 10-K 8/26/2023 |
| 5312023 | 6212023 | 10-Q 5/27/2023 |
| 2282023 | 3222023 | 10-Q 2/25/2023 |
| 11302022 | 12162022 | 10-Q 11/26/2022 |
| 8312022 | 10192022 | 10-K 8/27/2022 |
| 5312022 | 6222022 | 10-Q 5/28/2022 |
| 2282022 | 3232022 | 10-Q 2/26/2022 |
| 11302021 | 12172021 | 10-Q 11/27/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |