ONE Gas (OGS)
Market Price (8/12/2026): $79.61 | Market Cap: $5.0 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Gas Utilities
ONE Gas (OGS)
Market Price (8/12/2026): $79.61Market Cap: $5.0 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Gas Utilities
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.1%, Dividend Yield is 3.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.6% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 18% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, Electrification of Everything, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Smart Metering, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -19%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -59% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 68% Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.9% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.6% Key risksOGS key risks include [1] the inability to secure timely and adequate rate increases and cost recovery from regulatory bodies, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.1%, Dividend Yield is 3.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 18% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, Electrification of Everything, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Smart Metering, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -19%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -59% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 68% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.9% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.6% |
| Key risksOGS key risks include [1] the inability to secure timely and adequate rate increases and cost recovery from regulatory bodies, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 8/4/2026
ONE Gas (OGS) stock has lost about 10% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fiscal Q1 2026 earnings fell below analyst expectations, driven by unseasonably warm weather. The company reported adjusted earnings per diluted share of $2.11 for fiscal Q1 2026, missing analysts' consensus estimates of $2.13. Revenue for the quarter was $831.71 million, falling short of analyst expectations of $969.36 million, representing an approximately 14% miss. Management attributed this underperformance primarily to unseasonably warm weather, which dampened heating demand across its service territories.
2. Deteriorating outlook for the broader utility sector and subsequent analyst price target adjustments contributed to negative sentiment. In June, Fitch Ratings downgraded its outlook for the North American utility sector to "deteriorating," signaling broader challenges for the industry. This macroeconomic headwind likely impacted investor perception of ONE Gas. In response, some analysts reduced their price targets for OGS, reflecting a more cautious stance on utilities compared to the overall market. For instance, Mizuho lowered its price objective from $94.00 to $89.00 in June.
Show more
ONE Gas (OGS) stock has lost about 10% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fiscal Q1 2026 earnings fell below analyst expectations, driven by unseasonably warm weather. The company reported adjusted earnings per diluted share of $2.11 for fiscal Q1 2026, missing analysts' consensus estimates of $2.13. Revenue for the quarter was $831.71 million, falling short of analyst expectations of $969.36 million, representing an approximately 14% miss. Management attributed this underperformance primarily to unseasonably warm weather, which dampened heating demand across its service territories.
2. Deteriorating outlook for the broader utility sector and subsequent analyst price target adjustments contributed to negative sentiment. In June, Fitch Ratings downgraded its outlook for the North American utility sector to "deteriorating," signaling broader challenges for the industry. This macroeconomic headwind likely impacted investor perception of ONE Gas. In response, some analysts reduced their price targets for OGS, reflecting a more cautious stance on utilities compared to the overall market. For instance, Mizuho lowered its price objective from $94.00 to $89.00 in June.
Show more
Updated on 8/4/2026
ONE Gas (OGS) stock has lost about 10% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fiscal Q1 2026 earnings fell below analyst expectations, driven by unseasonably warm weather. The company reported adjusted earnings per diluted share of $2.11 for fiscal Q1 2026, missing analysts' consensus estimates of $2.13. Revenue for the quarter was $831.71 million, falling short of analyst expectations of $969.36 million, representing an approximately 14% miss. Management attributed this underperformance primarily to unseasonably warm weather, which dampened heating demand across its service territories.
2. Deteriorating outlook for the broader utility sector and subsequent analyst price target adjustments contributed to negative sentiment. In June, Fitch Ratings downgraded its outlook for the North American utility sector to "deteriorating," signaling broader challenges for the industry. This macroeconomic headwind likely impacted investor perception of ONE Gas. In response, some analysts reduced their price targets for OGS, reflecting a more cautious stance on utilities compared to the overall market. For instance, Mizuho lowered its price objective from $94.00 to $89.00 in June.
3. Persistent unseasonably warm weather continued to be a concern for natural gas demand. While weather normalization mechanisms are in place for a regulated utility, the impact of warmer-than-normal weather continued to be a factor affecting investor confidence in sustained natural gas demand. Fiscal Q2 2026 also experienced weather that was 42% warmer than normal and 28% warmer than the prior year, highlighting the ongoing environmental challenge, despite partial mitigation by regulatory mechanisms.
Show less
ONE Gas (OGS) stock has lost about 10% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fiscal Q1 2026 earnings fell below analyst expectations, driven by unseasonably warm weather. The company reported adjusted earnings per diluted share of $2.11 for fiscal Q1 2026, missing analysts' consensus estimates of $2.13. Revenue for the quarter was $831.71 million, falling short of analyst expectations of $969.36 million, representing an approximately 14% miss. Management attributed this underperformance primarily to unseasonably warm weather, which dampened heating demand across its service territories.
2. Deteriorating outlook for the broader utility sector and subsequent analyst price target adjustments contributed to negative sentiment. In June, Fitch Ratings downgraded its outlook for the North American utility sector to "deteriorating," signaling broader challenges for the industry. This macroeconomic headwind likely impacted investor perception of ONE Gas. In response, some analysts reduced their price targets for OGS, reflecting a more cautious stance on utilities compared to the overall market. For instance, Mizuho lowered its price objective from $94.00 to $89.00 in June.
3. Persistent unseasonably warm weather continued to be a concern for natural gas demand. While weather normalization mechanisms are in place for a regulated utility, the impact of warmer-than-normal weather continued to be a factor affecting investor confidence in sustained natural gas demand. Fiscal Q2 2026 also experienced weather that was 42% warmer than normal and 28% warmer than the prior year, highlighting the ongoing environmental challenge, despite partial mitigation by regulatory mechanisms.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.8% change in OGS stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/11/2026 was primarily driven by a -14.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 89.22 | 79.60 | -10.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,427 | 2,312 | -4.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.9% | 12.5% | 14.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.4 | 17.4 | -14.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 60 | 63 | -4.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.8% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OGS | -10.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.2% | -32.0% |
| Sector (XLU) | -6.9% | 67.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.9% change in OGS stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 78.93 | 79.60 | 0.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,369 | 2,312 | -2.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.8% | 12.5% | 15.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.6 | 17.4 | -6.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 60 | 63 | -4.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.9% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OGS | 0.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.7% | -21.6% |
| Sector (XLU) | 1.6% | 70.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 12.3% change in OGS stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 16.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 70.90 | 79.60 | 12.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,260 | 2,312 | 2.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.7% | 12.5% | 16.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.5 | 17.4 | -0.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 60 | 63 | -4.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 12.3% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OGS | 12.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.9% | -11.2% |
| Sector (XLU) | 4.0% | 60.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 11.5% change in OGS stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 45.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 71.40 | 79.60 | 11.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,639 | 2,312 | -12.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.5% | 12.5% | 45.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.6 | 17.4 | -1.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 56 | 63 | -11.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 11.5% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| OGS | 11.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.3% | 15.5% |
| Sector (XLU) | 41.5% | 59.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OGS Return | 4% | 1% | -13% | 13% | 16% | 3% | 23% |
| Peers Return | 14% | 7% | -3% | 14% | 19% | 9% | 74% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OGS Win Rate | 33% | 58% | 33% | 42% | 67% | 62% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 53% | 47% | 53% | 70% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OGS Max Drawdown | -21% | -23% | -30% | -15% | -12% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -22% | -24% | -12% | -10% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ATO, SWX, SR, NWN, NJR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/11/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OGS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -27.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 355 days | 24 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -28.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 739 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -10.5% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.7% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 6 days |
In The Past
ONE Gas's stock fell -0.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.2% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | OGS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -27.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 355 days | 24 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -28.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 739 days | 140 days |
In The Past
ONE Gas's stock fell -0.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About ONE Gas (OGS)
ONE Gas (OGS) operates as a regulated natural gas distribution utility company within the United States. Its core business involves the safe and reliable delivery of natural gas from larger transmission pipelines to end-users through an extensive network of distribution mains and local infrastructure. The company also manages significant natural gas storage capacity to ensure consistent supply for its service territories.
Through its three divisions—Oklahoma Natural Gas, Kansas Gas Service, and Texas Gas Service—ONE Gas provides essential natural gas services to approximately 2.2 million customers across Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas. Its primary offerings include the transportation and distribution of natural gas directly to residential homes, various commercial enterprises, and clients within the transportation sector.
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Here are a few brief analogies for ONE Gas (OGS):
- It's like an electric utility such as Duke Energy, but for natural gas.
- Think of it as the American Water Works, but distributing natural gas instead of water.
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- Natural Gas Distribution Services: Provides the regulated delivery of natural gas to residential, commercial, and transportation customers across Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas.
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ONE Gas (OGS) is a regulated natural gas distribution utility company. It sells primarily to individuals and businesses rather than to other companies as its major customers.
The three categories of customers that ONE Gas serves are:
- Residential Customers: Individual households that use natural gas for heating, cooking, water heating, and other domestic purposes.
- Commercial Customers: Businesses, institutions, and organizations that use natural gas for various operational needs, such as heating buildings, powering equipment, and industrial processes.
- Transportation Customers: Entities that utilize natural gas as fuel for vehicles, often in compressed natural gas (CNG) or liquefied natural gas (LNG) forms, primarily for fleet vehicles.
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- ONEOK, Inc. (OKE)
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Robert S. McAnnally, Chief Executive Officer
Sid McAnnally joined ONE Gas in 2015 as senior vice president of operations, becoming chief operating officer in 2020, and then president and chief executive officer in June 2021. Before joining ONE Gas, McAnnally was an officer of Energen Corporation, where he served as vice president of external affairs and strategic planning, and later as senior vice president of customer service and marketing for its utility subsidiary, Alagasco. Prior to Energen, he practiced law, representing clients in the utility, financial, and corporate sectors. He holds a Juris Doctorate from the University of Alabama and a Bachelor of Arts degree from Auburn University, and he has also attended the Executive Education Program at the Harvard Business School.
Christopher P. Sighinolfi, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Christopher P. Sighinolfi became Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of ONE Gas, effective January 1, 2024. He joined the company in 2021 as vice president, corporate development, where he was responsible for identifying and evaluating business investment opportunities, including asset acquisitions and divestitures, market development, and customer programs and services. He also oversaw the company's investor relations and sustainability efforts. Before his tenure at ONE Gas, Sighinolfi served as managing director of U.S. Equity Research for Jefferies Financial Group, covering natural gas utilities, midstream companies, independent U.S. refiners, and energy Master Limited Partnerships. Prior to Jefferies, he was director of U.S. Investment Research at UBS Investment Bank.
Curtis L. Dinan, President and Chief Operating Officer
Curtis L. Dinan is the President and Chief Operating Officer of ONE Gas, a position he was promoted to effective March 1, 2026. In this role, he is responsible for safety, operations, information technology, and commercial aspects across the company's three natural gas distribution utilities. Dinan was previously named senior vice president and chief financial officer when ONE Gas separated from ONEOK, Inc. in 2014. He was later promoted to senior vice president and chief commercial officer in 2019, and senior vice president and chief operating officer in 2021. Earlier in his career, he held senior finance roles at ONEOK and ONEOK Partners, including CFO/Treasurer from 2007–2011, and served as an audit partner at Arthur Andersen and Grant Thornton.
Mark A. Bender, Senior Vice President, Administration and Chief Information Officer
Mark Bender serves as the Senior Vice President, Administration, and Chief Information Officer of ONE Gas. His responsibilities encompass information technology, cyber and physical security, process and data integrity, and enterprise services. Bender joined ONE Gas in 2014 as vice president and chief information officer. Before his time at ONE Gas, he was vice president of business systems for Chesapeake Energy, where he also held the position of vice president of information technology operations.
Joseph L. McCormick, Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Assistant Secretary
Joseph L. McCormick is the Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Assistant Secretary for ONE Gas.
Sid McAnnally joined ONE Gas in 2015 as senior vice president of operations, becoming chief operating officer in 2020, and then president and chief executive officer in June 2021. Before joining ONE Gas, McAnnally was an officer of Energen Corporation, where he served as vice president of external affairs and strategic planning, and later as senior vice president of customer service and marketing for its utility subsidiary, Alagasco. Prior to Energen, he practiced law, representing clients in the utility, financial, and corporate sectors. He holds a Juris Doctorate from the University of Alabama and a Bachelor of Arts degree from Auburn University, and he has also attended the Executive Education Program at the Harvard Business School.
Christopher P. Sighinolfi, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Christopher P. Sighinolfi became Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of ONE Gas, effective January 1, 2024. He joined the company in 2021 as vice president, corporate development, where he was responsible for identifying and evaluating business investment opportunities, including asset acquisitions and divestitures, market development, and customer programs and services. He also oversaw the company's investor relations and sustainability efforts. Before his tenure at ONE Gas, Sighinolfi served as managing director of U.S. Equity Research for Jefferies Financial Group, covering natural gas utilities, midstream companies, independent U.S. refiners, and energy Master Limited Partnerships. Prior to Jefferies, he was director of U.S. Investment Research at UBS Investment Bank.
Curtis L. Dinan, President and Chief Operating Officer
Curtis L. Dinan is the President and Chief Operating Officer of ONE Gas, a position he was promoted to effective March 1, 2026. In this role, he is responsible for safety, operations, information technology, and commercial aspects across the company's three natural gas distribution utilities. Dinan was previously named senior vice president and chief financial officer when ONE Gas separated from ONEOK, Inc. in 2014. He was later promoted to senior vice president and chief commercial officer in 2019, and senior vice president and chief operating officer in 2021. Earlier in his career, he held senior finance roles at ONEOK and ONEOK Partners, including CFO/Treasurer from 2007–2011, and served as an audit partner at Arthur Andersen and Grant Thornton.
Mark A. Bender, Senior Vice President, Administration and Chief Information Officer
Mark Bender serves as the Senior Vice President, Administration, and Chief Information Officer of ONE Gas. His responsibilities encompass information technology, cyber and physical security, process and data integrity, and enterprise services. Bender joined ONE Gas in 2014 as vice president and chief information officer. Before his time at ONE Gas, he was vice president of business systems for Chesapeake Energy, where he also held the position of vice president of information technology operations.
Joseph L. McCormick, Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Assistant Secretary
Joseph L. McCormick is the Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Assistant Secretary for ONE Gas.
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The key risks to ONE Gas's business operations are predominantly tied to its heavily regulated nature, the inherent operational challenges of natural gas distribution exacerbated by climate change, and exposure to fluctuations in interest rates and broader economic conditions.
Key Risks to ONE Gas (OGS)
- Regulatory Risks: As a 100% regulated natural gas distribution utility, ONE Gas is highly dependent on state regulatory authorities in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas for timely rate approvals. Adverse rate decisions, regulatory lag (the delay between incurring costs and recovering them through rates), and increased compliance costs associated with evolving safety and environmental regulations can significantly impact the company's financial performance and ability to recover investments. The potential for changes in regulatory interpretations further introduces uncertainty.
- Operational Risks and Climate Change/Extreme Weather Events: ONE Gas faces inherent operational hazards common to the natural gas distribution industry, including leaks, accidents, and equipment failures. These risks are intensified by climate change, which can lead to more frequent and severe extreme weather events. Such events can disrupt service, cause damage to infrastructure, and result in substantial increases in operational and capital costs, as evidenced by past events like Winter Storm Uri. While the company employs securitization to finance extraordinary expenses from such events, the underlying exposure remains.
- Interest Rate and Economic Risks: As a utility with significant capital expenditures and a considerable amount of debt, ONE Gas is exposed to interest rate risk. Rising interest rates can increase borrowing costs for new debt financing and impact the company's ability to fund its capital requirements and service existing debt obligations. Furthermore, general economic conditions, including inflation, can influence customer demand and the company's overall financial performance.
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The primary clear emerging threat to ONE Gas (OGS) is the accelerating trend of electrification, particularly in residential and commercial heating and other traditionally gas-powered applications. Driven by decarbonization policies, climate change initiatives, and advancements in technologies like highly efficient electric heat pumps, there is a growing push to transition away from fossil fuels like natural gas. This movement, supported by government incentives and building code changes in some jurisdictions, directly threatens the long-term demand for natural gas and, consequently, the core business model of natural gas distribution utilities like OGS.
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The addressable markets for ONE Gas (OGS), a natural gas distribution utility, are defined by the natural gas distribution industries within its operating regions of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas. The company primarily serves residential, commercial, and transportation customers in these states.
The estimated addressable market sizes for natural gas distribution in these regions are:
-
Oklahoma: The market size of the Natural Gas Distribution industry in Oklahoma is projected to be approximately $7.1 billion in 2026. ONE Gas, through its Oklahoma Natural Gas division, holds an estimated 89% market share in Oklahoma by customer count.
-
Kansas: The value of natural gas delivered to consumers in Kansas was approximately $1.30 billion in 2015. ONE Gas, through its Kansas Gas Service division, is the largest natural gas distributor in Kansas and has an estimated 71% market share by customer count.
-
Texas: The value of natural gas delivered to consumers in Texas was approximately $13.4 billion in 2015. The Natural Gas Distribution industry in Texas has been experiencing an average annual growth rate of 4.9% from 2020 to 2025. ONE Gas, through its Texas Gas Service division, is the third-largest natural gas distributor in Texas and holds an estimated 13% market share by customer count.
The market sizes provided are for the respective U.S. states where ONE Gas operates. The market data for Kansas and Texas reflect 2015 values, while the Oklahoma data is a 2026 projection. The primary service offered by ONE Gas is natural gas distribution.
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ONE Gas (OGS) anticipates several key drivers for revenue growth over the next two to three years:
- New Rates and Rate Increases: The implementation of new rates and regulatory-approved rate increases across its service territories is a significant contributor to revenue growth. For instance, the company secured Texas rate relief and approval for a $14.4 million revenue increase effective January 2026. Additionally, the Oklahoma Corporation Commission approved a $41.1 million revenue increase, with new rates effective in June.
- Customer Growth: ONE Gas consistently reports growth in its customer base. The company noted continued customer growth of approximately 23,000 new residential customers per year, contributing to increased demand for natural gas services.
- Capital Investments and System Expansion: Substantial capital investments are planned for system integrity, replacement projects, and mainline extensions to support new developments and customer expansion. These investments, including approximately $800 million in 2026, are expected to support average rate base growth of 7% to 9% per year through 2030. Specific projects mentioned include the Austin system reinforcement and a roughly $120 million pipeline to deliver natural gas to Western Farmers Electric Cooperative in southeastern Oklahoma.
- Favorable Regional Dynamics and Economic Growth: The company benefits from strong in-migration, robust economic development, and supportive regulatory frameworks in its service territories of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Economic growth and increased demand for natural gas continue to drive system expansion, with significant manufacturing projects announced in its service territory.
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Share Issuance
- In December 2024, ONE Gas settled approximately 3.16 million shares under its at-the-market equity program and forward contracts, resulting in net proceeds of $245.7 million.
- In May 2025, the company announced a public offering of 2.5 million shares of common stock, planning a forward sale agreement with expected settlement by December 31, 2026.
- As of December 2025, ONE Gas settled 2,633,700 shares of common stock under forward contracts for net proceeds of $205.0 million.
Capital Expenditures
- ONE Gas' capital expenditures and asset removal costs were $728.7 million in 2023 and $762.1 million in 2024.
- For 2025, capital expenditures and asset removal costs totaled $759.5 million, with a primary focus on system integrity and replacement projects, and extensions to new customers, particularly in Texas and Oklahoma.
- Expected capital investments for 2026 are approximately $800 million, including about $230 million allocated for extensions to new customers, continuing to prioritize system integrity and replacement.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| ONE Gas Earnings Notes | 12/29/2026 | |
| How Low Can ONE Gas Stock Really Go? | 10/17/2025 | |
| ONE Gas vs Newmont: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
| ONE Gas vs Eversource Energy: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
| How Does ONE Gas Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | 08/13/2025 | |
| Better Bet Than OGS Stock: Pay Less Than ONE Gas To Get More From OKE, CCL | 08/12/2025 | |
| Better Bet Than OGS Stock: Pay Less Than ONE Gas To Get More From BIPC | 08/12/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 04/07/2026 |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 81.03 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.3 |
| Rev LTM | 2,271 |
| Op Inc LTM | 529 |
| FCF LTM | -244 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -166 |
| CFO LTM | 563 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 617 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 16.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 10.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 23.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 24.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -14.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -7.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.3 |
| P/S | 2.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 10.3 |
| P/EBIT | 9.8 |
| P/E | 15.9 |
| P/CFO | 9.8 |
| Total Yield | 9.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -3.9% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.7 |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulated public utilities that deliver natural gas primarily to residential, commercial, and | 2,427 | 2,084 | 2,372 | 2,578 | |
| Miscellaneous revenues | 17 | ||||
| Natural gas sales to customers | 1,653 | ||||
| Other revenues | 11 | ||||
| Other revenues - natural gas sales related | 10 | ||||
| Securitization customer charges | 0 | ||||
| Transportation revenues | 118 | ||||
| Total | 2,427 | 2,084 | 2,372 | 2,578 | 1,809 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $79.60 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 5.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/16/2014 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -12.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $78.23 | $81.44 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | 1.8% | -2.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 22.2% | 18.0% |
| Downside Capture | -56.97 | -32.99 |
| Upside Capture | -73.06 | -15.75 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -30.3% | -12.8% |
OGS Betas & Captures as of 7/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.71 | -0.56 | -0.53 | -0.30 | -0.15 | 0.21 |
| Up Beta | -1.26 | -0.75 | -0.61 | -0.27 | -0.05 | 0.27 |
| Down Beta | 1.05 | -0.10 | -0.13 | 0.02 | -0.08 | 0.12 |
| Up Capture | -99% | -62% | -75% | -27% | -8% | 6% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 20 | 24 | 59 | 131 | 385 |
| Down Capture | -127% | -74% | -45% | -57% | -44% | 45% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 38 | 66 | 119 | 363 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OGS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGS | 7.6% | 18.0% | 0.26 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 3.4% | 14.9% | 0.02 | 60.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 22.1% | 12.8% | 1.28 | -12.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 28.2% | 28.4% | 0.86 | -4.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 37.4% | 20.1% | 1.47 | -7.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.5% | 13.8% | 0.61 | 53.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -45.3% | 42.9% | -1.28 | -12.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OGS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGS | 4.5% | 23.6% | 0.15 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 8.6% | 17.3% | 0.35 | 61.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 17.2% | 0.60 | 24.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.8% | 18.6% | 0.82 | 11.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.3% | 19.6% | 0.36 | 10.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.9% | 18.9% | -0.00 | 50.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.9% | 52.8% | 0.39 | 10.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with OGS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGS | 5.0% | 26.0% | 0.21 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 8.6% | 19.3% | 0.38 | 72.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 43.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.0% | 16.2% | 0.61 | 9.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.9% | 18.0% | 0.35 | 14.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.5% | 20.7% | 0.18 | 62.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 59.4% | 66.1% | 0.99 | 10.2% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/12/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/4/2026 | 2.5% | 2.9% | |
| 5/4/2026 | -2.4% | -4.3% | -13.5% |
| 2/18/2026 | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% |
| 11/3/2025 | 0.5% | -0.0% | -2.6% |
| 8/5/2025 | 1.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% |
| 5/5/2025 | 3.3% | -4.7% | -5.2% |
| 2/19/2025 | -0.2% | 4.2% | 3.3% |
| 11/4/2024 | 0.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 13 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 1.6% | 2.9% | 6.0% |
| Median Negative | -1.2% | -1.6% | -5.2% |
| Max Positive | 3.3% | 11.5% | 13.1% |
| Max Negative | -3.0% | -4.7% | -13.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/4/2026 | 2.5% | 2.9% | |
| 5/4/2026 | -2.4% | -4.3% | -13.5% |
| 2/18/2026 | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% |
| 11/3/2025 | 0.5% | -0.0% | -2.6% |
| 8/5/2025 | 1.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% |
| 5/5/2025 | 3.3% | -4.7% | -5.2% |
| 2/19/2025 | -0.2% | 4.2% | 3.3% |
| 11/4/2024 | 0.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% |
| 8/5/2024 | -0.7% | 0.4% | 6.3% |
| 5/6/2024 | -0.4% | -2.0% | -4.6% |
| 2/21/2024 | 1.6% | -0.5% | 5.4% |
| 10/30/2023 | -1.5% | 1.5% | -2.9% |
| 7/31/2023 | -1.4% | -1.6% | -4.9% |
| 5/1/2023 | 1.3% | 4.1% | 5.6% |
| 2/22/2023 | 1.2% | 0.1% | -5.7% |
| 10/31/2022 | 3.3% | 0.4% | 13.1% |
| 8/1/2022 | -1.3% | -3.7% | -5.3% |
| 5/2/2022 | 0.4% | 3.4% | 5.8% |
| 2/23/2022 | 2.9% | 11.5% | 11.6% |
| 11/1/2021 | -1.1% | -0.7% | -6.3% |
| 8/2/2021 | 0.8% | -0.3% | -2.6% |
| 5/3/2021 | -1.0% | -1.8% | -6.4% |
| 2/25/2021 | -3.0% | -0.3% | 8.7% |
| 11/2/2020 | 3.0% | 2.8% | 11.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 13 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 1.6% | 2.9% | 6.0% |
| Median Negative | -1.2% | -1.6% | -5.2% |
| Max Positive | 3.3% | 11.5% | 13.1% |
| Max Negative | -3.0% | -4.7% | -13.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/26/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/03/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/28/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/28/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/20/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/29/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 8/5/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted Net Income | 305.89 Mil | 309.94 Mil | 314.00 Mil | 0.0% | Raised | Guidance: 309.92 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | 4.83 | 4.89 | 4.95 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 4.89 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 800.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 800.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures for extensions | 230.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 230.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net Income | 294.00 Mil | 298.00 Mil | 302.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 298.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 EPS | 4.65 | 4.71 | 4.77 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 4.71 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Net Income | 305.89 Mil | 309.92 Mil | 314.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 309.92 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | 4.83 | 4.89 | 4.95 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 4.89 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net Income Growth | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 8.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 EPS Growth | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 6.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 800.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 800.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures - Extensions | 230.00 Mil | ||||||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/18/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net Income | 294.00 Mil | 298.00 Mil | 302.00 Mil | 12.9% | Higher New | Guidance: 264.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 EPS | 4.65 | 4.71 | 4.77 | 7.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 4.37 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Net Income | 305.89 Mil | 309.92 Mil | 314.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | 4.83 | 4.89 | 4.95 | ||||
| 2026 Net Income Growth | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | ||||
| 2026 EPS Growth | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | ||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 800.00 Mil | 6.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 750.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/3/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Net Income | 262.00 Mil | 264.00 Mil | 266.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 264.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Earnings per diluted share | 4.34 | 4.37 | 4.4 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 4.37 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Capital expenditures | 750.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 750.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
Industry Resources
| Utilities Resources |
| Data.gov Energy Infrastructure |
| Data.gov Energy Resources |
| Utility Dive |
| Gas Utilities Resources |
| American Gas Association (AGA) |
| Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) |
| Pipeline & Gas Journal |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 8/11/2026