Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.7%, Dist 3Y High is -4.7%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 70%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -4.4%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -70%
Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.3%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 20%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, Electrification of Everything, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Smart Metering, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 20%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, Electrification of Everything, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Smart Metering, Show more.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.7%, Dist 3Y High is -4.7%
6 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -4.4%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -70%
7 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 70%
8 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.3%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

OGS Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for the approximate 5.2% movement in ONE Gas (OGS) stock from late August 2025 to early December 2025: 1. Positive 2026 Financial Guidance and Long-Term Growth Rate Increase: On December 1, 2025, ONE Gas issued its financial guidance for 2026, projecting diluted earnings per share (EPS) between $4.65 and $4.77, which exceeded the consensus estimate of $4.63. Additionally, the company raised its long-term diluted EPS growth rate from the previous 4-6% to 5-7%.

2. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Per Share Performance: ONE Gas reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings on November 3, 2025, with an EPS of $0.44 that met analyst consensus estimates. The company's net income for the quarter also increased to $26.5 million, up from $19.3 million in the same period of 2024, primarily driven by new rates and customer growth.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
OGS Return-16%4%1%-13%13%21%5%
Peers Return-39%180%42%2%8%6%186%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
OGS Win Rate42%33%58%33%42%70% 
Peers Win Rate42%62%55%53%50%64% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
OGS Max Drawdown-27%-16%-8%-21%-8%-2% 
Peers Max Drawdown-63%-3%-3%-19%-9%-25% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SWX, MGY, BTU, SM, ATO.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventOGSS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-37.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven59.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-31.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven45.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-20.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven26.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven167 days120 days

Compare to SWX, MGY, BTU, SM, ATO


In The Past

ONE Gas's stock fell -37.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -37.3% loss requires a 59.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About ONE Gas (OGS)

Better Bets than ONE Gas (OGS)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to OGS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.7%-0.7%-0.7%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.5%2.5%0.0%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.3%9.3%-3.2%
OGS_10312023_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312023OGSONE GasDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.2%24.7%-3.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.7%-0.7%-0.7%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.5%2.5%0.0%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.3%9.3%-3.2%
OGS_10312023_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312023OGSONE GasDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.2%24.7%-3.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for ONE Gas

Peers to compare with:

Financials

OGSSWXMGYBTUSMATOMedian
NameONE Gas Southwes.Magnolia.Peabody .SM EnergyAtmos En. 
Mkt Price79.7979.9023.4929.4320.21171.1554.61
Mkt Cap4.85.84.33.62.327.34.6
Rev LTM2,3695,9241,3213,9623,2724,6233,617
Op Inc LTM442563469151,0181,525516
FCF LTM-125-197408-61-1,563-1,374-161
FCF 3Y Avg-84-64437466-280-705-74
CFO LTM5986768933852,1372,032784
CFO 3Y Avg6208159058591,7352,314882

Growth & Margins

OGSSWXMGYBTUSMATOMedian
NameONE Gas Southwes.Magnolia.Peabody .SM EnergyAtmos En. 
Rev Chg LTM15.1%31.9%0.7%-8.9%34.0%12.9%14.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg1.5%10.8%-6.6%-4.0%1.1%4.9%1.3%
Rev Chg Q11.4%-11.8%-2.5%-7.0%26.3%19.6%4.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.7%-0.7%-0.6%-1.9%5.4%3.1%0.5%
Op Mgn LTM18.7%9.5%35.5%0.4%31.1%33.0%24.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg17.2%9.3%41.4%12.9%37.3%29.5%23.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%0.4%-1.9%-3.7%-3.1%-0.3%-1.1%
CFO/Rev LTM25.3%11.4%67.6%9.7%65.3%44.0%34.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg26.0%16.5%69.9%18.0%63.8%52.7%39.4%
FCF/Rev LTM-5.3%-3.3%30.9%-1.5%-47.8%-29.7%-4.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-4.4%-0.3%33.7%9.1%-6.0%-16.2%-2.3%

Valuation

OGSSWXMGYBTUSMATOMedian
NameONE Gas Southwes.Magnolia.Peabody .SM EnergyAtmos En. 
Mkt Cap4.85.84.33.62.327.34.6
P/S2.11.03.30.80.95.31.5
P/EBIT10.99.39.670.82.615.210.2
P/E19.112.212.9-98.73.921.212.5
P/CFO8.18.44.98.41.312.18.3
Total Yield6.9%11.4%9.1%0.1%27.0%5.8%8.0%
Dividend Yield1.6%3.2%1.3%1.1%1.6%1.1%1.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-1.7%-2.0%9.8%13.6%-12.9%-3.2%-1.9%
D/E0.70.60.10.10.90.40.5
Net D/E0.70.50.0-0.10.90.30.4

Returns

OGSSWXMGYBTUSMATOMedian
NameONE Gas Southwes.Magnolia.Peabody .SM EnergyAtmos En. 
1M Rtn-1.3%-0.6%4.2%-1.5%4.4%-0.3%-0.4%
3M Rtn6.7%1.5%-1.7%72.6%-26.6%4.2%2.8%
6M Rtn10.4%12.8%6.7%121.1%-14.9%13.7%11.6%
12M Rtn8.9%5.8%-12.1%27.1%-53.2%19.8%7.4%
3Y Rtn22.4%31.1%-2.3%-3.1%-47.5%58.3%10.1%
1M Excs Rtn-1.3%-0.5%4.2%-1.4%4.5%-0.3%-0.4%
3M Excs Rtn1.6%-3.5%-9.2%64.2%-33.0%-0.9%-2.2%
6M Excs Rtn-4.3%-2.0%-8.0%106.4%-29.7%-1.0%-3.1%
12M Excs Rtn-7.5%-7.9%-26.6%11.9%-67.4%2.1%-7.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-69.8%-42.1%-72.1%-68.6%-121.6%-16.6%-69.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Regulated public utilities that deliver natural gas to residential, commercial and transportation2,372    
Miscellaneous revenues 201716 
Natural gas sales to customers 2,4101,6531,3811,508
Other revenues 13212031
Other revenues - natural gas sales related 3   
Securitization customer charges 6   
Transportation revenues 126118114114
Total2,3722,5781,8091,5301,653


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,959,147
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120254.1%
Average Daily Volume517,113
Days-to-Cover Short Interest9.59
Basic Shares Quantity60,183,000
Short % of Basic Shares8.2%

Returns Analyses

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241105202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231031202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023801202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221101202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022802202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022503202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Hutchinson Michael G 3202025Sell74.031,20088,8361,164,196Form