ONE Gas (OGS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $79.83 | Market Cap: $4.8 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Gas Utilities
ONE Gas (OGS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $79.83Market Cap: $4.8 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Gas Utilities
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.7%, Dist 3Y High is -4.7% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 70% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -4.4%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -70% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.3% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 20% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, Electrification of Everything, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Smart Metering, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 20% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, Electrification of Everything, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Smart Metering, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.7%, Dist 3Y High is -4.7% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -4.4%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -70% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 70% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.3% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
OGS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for the approximate 5.2% movement in ONE Gas (OGS) stock from late August 2025 to early December 2025:
1. Positive 2026 Financial Guidance and Long-Term Growth Rate Increase: On December 1, 2025, ONE Gas issued its financial guidance for 2026, projecting diluted earnings per share (EPS) between $4.65 and $4.77, which exceeded the consensus estimate of $4.63. Additionally, the company raised its long-term diluted EPS growth rate from the previous 4-6% to 5-7%.
2. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Per Share Performance: ONE Gas reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings on November 3, 2025, with an EPS of $0.44 that met analyst consensus estimates. The company's net income for the quarter also increased to $26.5 million, up from $19.3 million in the same period of 2024, primarily driven by new rates and customer growth.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OGS Return | -16% | 4% | 1% | -13% | 13% | 21% | 5% |
| Peers Return | -39% | 180% | 42% | 2% | 8% | 6% | 186% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OGS Win Rate | 42% | 33% | 58% | 33% | 42% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 62% | 55% | 53% | 50% | 64% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OGS Max Drawdown | -27% | -16% | -8% | -21% | -8% | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -63% | -3% | -3% | -19% | -9% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SWX, MGY, BTU, SM, ATO.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OGS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -20.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 167 days | 120 days |
Compare to SWX, MGY, BTU, SM, ATO
In The Past
ONE Gas's stock fell -37.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -37.3% loss requires a 59.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to OGS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.3% | 9.3% | -3.2% |
| 10312023 | OGS | ONE Gas | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.2% | 24.7% | -3.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.3% | 9.3% | -3.2% |
| 10312023 | OGS | ONE Gas | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.2% | 24.7% | -3.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for ONE Gas
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 54.61 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.6 |
| Rev LTM | 3,617 |
| Op Inc LTM | 516 |
| FCF LTM | -161 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -74 |
| CFO LTM | 784 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 882 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 24.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 23.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 34.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 39.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -4.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -2.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.6 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/EBIT | 10.2 |
| P/E | 12.5 |
| P/CFO | 8.3 |
| Total Yield | 8.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -1.9% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 7.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 10.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -2.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -3.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -7.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -69.2% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulated public utilities that deliver natural gas to residential, commercial and transportation | 2,372 | ||||
| Miscellaneous revenues | 20 | 17 | 16 | ||
| Natural gas sales to customers | 2,410 | 1,653 | 1,381 | 1,508 | |
| Other revenues | 13 | 21 | 20 | 31 | |
| Other revenues - natural gas sales related | 3 | ||||
| Securitization customer charges | 6 | ||||
| Transportation revenues | 126 | 118 | 114 | 114 | |
| Total | 2,372 | 2,578 | 1,809 | 1,530 | 1,653 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Hutchinson Michael G | 3202025 | Sell | 74.03 | 1,200 | 88,836 | 1,164,196 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |