Tearsheet

MAC Copper (MTAL)


Market Price (10/31/2025): $12.215 | Market Cap: $591.3 Mil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining

MAC Copper (MTAL)


Market Price (10/31/2025): $12.215
Market Cap: $591.3 Mil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0   Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -19 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -102%
1   Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 32x
2   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -29%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -14%
0 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -19 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -102%
1 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 32x
2 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -29%
3 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -14%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

MTAL Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MTAL Return--0%27%-14%15%26%
Peers Return34%3%14%-7%-11%50%96%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%110%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MTAL Win Rate-0%0%42%50%33% 
Peers Win Rate33%27%32%32%28%76% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MTAL Max Drawdown--0%-3%-19%-26% 
Peers Max Drawdown-32%-10%-9%-15%-17%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VALE, WRN, XPL, ALM, CRML.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/30/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMTALS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-22.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven29.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven58 days464 days

Compare to VALE, WRN, XPL, ALM, CRML


In The Past

MAC Copper's stock fell -22.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/2/2023. A -22.8% loss requires a 29.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About MAC Copper (MTAL)

Better Bets than MAC Copper (MTAL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleTopic
0DASHBOARDS 
1How Low Can MAC Copper Stock Really Go?Return

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MTAL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
AXTA_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025AXTAAxalta Coating SystemsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.0%3.0%-7.8%
GPK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025GPKGraphic PackagingDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-16.8%-16.8%-16.8%
FCX_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025FCXFreeport-McMoRanMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
8.0%8.0%-0.9%
KWR_7312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield07312025KWRQuaker HoughtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.5%14.5%0.0%
TGLS_6302025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%06302025TGLSTecnoglassQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-23.1%-23.1%-23.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
AXTA_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025AXTAAxalta Coating SystemsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.0%3.0%-7.8%
GPK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025GPKGraphic PackagingDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-16.8%-16.8%-16.8%
FCX_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025FCXFreeport-McMoRanMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
8.0%8.0%-0.9%
KWR_7312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield07312025KWRQuaker HoughtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.5%14.5%0.0%
TGLS_6302025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%06302025TGLSTecnoglassQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-23.1%-23.1%-23.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for MAC Copper

Financials

MTALVALEWRNXPLALMCRMLMedian
NameMAC Copp.Vale Western .Solitari.Almonty .Critical. 
Mkt Price-11.892.100.696.7612.886.76
Mkt Cap0.650.80.40.1--0.5
Rev LTM1936,6000028-19
Op Inc LTM-199,986-8-6-20--8
FCF LTM-51,957-22-5-55--5
FCF 3Y Avg-4,519-23-4-42--13
CFO LTM-58,104-5-5-20--5
CFO 3Y Avg-10,455-4-4-13--4

Growth & Margins

MTALVALEWRNXPLALMCRMLMedian
NameMAC Copp.Vale Western .Solitari.Almonty .Critical. 
Rev Chg LTM--13.0%--9.9%--1.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--7.8%--4.6%--1.6%
Rev Chg Q--11.2%---9.4%--10.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM--3.0%---2.6%--2.8%
Op Mgn LTM-101.9%27.3%---71.3%--71.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-32.4%---42.8%--5.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--1.1%---39.7%--20.4%
CFO/Rev LTM-29.3%22.1%---69.9%--29.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-26.3%---50.4%--12.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-29.3%5.3%---193.7%--29.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-11.2%---160.1%--74.4%

Valuation

MTALVALEWRNXPLALMCRMLMedian
NameMAC Copp.Vale Western .Solitari.Almonty .Critical. 
Mkt Cap0.650.80.40.1--0.5
P/S31.81.4----16.6
P/EBIT-23.36.8-50.5-9.9---16.6
P/E-10.79.7-118.7-10.9---10.8
P/CFO-108.66.3-89.0-11.8---50.4
Total Yield-9.4%10.3%-0.8%-9.2%---5.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-8.9%-9.7%-7.8%---7.8%
D/E0.00.40.00.0--0.0
Net D/E0.00.3-0.1-0.2---0.1

Returns

MTALVALEWRNXPLALMCRMLMedian
NameMAC Copp.Vale Western .Solitari.Almonty .Critical. 
1M Rtn-9.5%6.6%-0.7%12.1%107.1%9.5%
3M Rtn-29.0%70.7%0.4%83.2%241.6%70.7%
6M Rtn-33.1%90.9%12.0%-731.0%62.0%
12M Rtn-19.3%94.4%2.1%-99.1%56.9%
3Y Rtn-17.5%59.1%28.3%--28.3%
1M Excs Rtn-6.6%4.4%-0.3%11.0%80.0%6.6%
3M Excs Rtn-17.2%65.6%-8.2%70.4%228.7%65.6%
6M Excs Rtn-11.3%69.2%-9.8%-709.2%40.2%
12M Excs Rtn--0.0%65.5%-16.5%-89.6%32.7%
3Y Excs Rtn--64.6%-17.7%-48.5%---48.5%

Financials

Price Behavior

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
630202582520256-K 6/30/2025
12312024328202520-F 12/31/2024
630202482820246-K 6/30/2024
12312023328202420-F 12/31/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022324202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221114202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022822202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022523202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021331202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211115202110-Q 9/30/2021
6302021910202110-Q 6/30/2021

Insider Activity

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