Almonty Industries (ALM)
Market Price (1/29/2026): $11.65 | Market Cap: $2.5 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Almonty Industries (ALM)
Market Price (1/29/2026): $11.65Market Cap: $2.5 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Critical Minerals & Strategic Resources. Themes include Tungsten Mining & Supply, Industrial Hard Materials, and High-Performance Alloys. | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -21 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -70% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 82x | |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 210%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 140% | |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -229% | |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 100% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.8% | |
| Key risksALM key risks include [1] a history of significant unprofitability and negative margins and [2] geopolitical and supply chain vulnerabilities in the specific jurisdictions where it operates. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Critical Minerals & Strategic Resources. Themes include Tungsten Mining & Supply, Industrial Hard Materials, and High-Performance Alloys. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -21 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -70% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 82x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 210%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 140% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -229% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 100% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.8% |
| Key risksALM key risks include [1] a history of significant unprofitability and negative margins and [2] geopolitical and supply chain vulnerabilities in the specific jurisdictions where it operates. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Significant Operational Milestones at Sangdong Tungsten Mine: Almonty Industries achieved a major operational milestone in December 2025 with the start of active mining operations at its flagship Sangdong Tungsten Mine in South Korea. This included the successful delivery of the first truckload of ore, marking the final step before the anticipated full-scale commercial operation of Phase 1 in 2026. The Sangdong mine is projected to become one of the largest and longest-life tungsten mines outside of China, positioning Almonty as a crucial supplier to Western markets.
2. Enhanced Strategic Positioning in the Critical Tungsten Market: The company solidified its strategic importance amidst a global focus on critical minerals. Almonty secured binding hard floor offtake agreements, including long-term commitments to supply tungsten oxide for U.S. defense applications, thereby providing future revenue visibility and validating the strategic value of its production. This comes at a time when tungsten prices are surging due to Chinese export restrictions and impending U.S. bans on Chinese-produced tungsten for defense, further positioning Almonty as a leading non-China tungsten producer.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 93.2% change in ALM stock from 9/30/2025 to 1/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 103.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 1292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.03 | 11.65 | 93.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 28 | 30 | 6.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 41.1 | 83.6 | 103.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 192 | 216 | -11.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 93.2% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 1/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALM | 89.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.2% | 24.1% |
| Sector (XLB) | 11.6% | 23.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 1/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALM | ||
| Market (SPY) | 12.6% | 21.1% |
| Sector (XLB) | 14.4% | 16.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/31/2024 to 1/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALM | ||
| Market (SPY) | 19.5% | 21.1% |
| Sector (XLB) | 20.6% | 16.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/31/2022 to 1/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALM | ||
| Market (SPY) | 88.2% | 21.1% |
| Sector (XLB) | 35.8% | 16.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ALM Return | - | - | - | - | 85% | 37% | 154% |
| Peers Return | 24% | 30% | 45% | 32% | 62% | 19% | 491% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 2% | 86% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ALM Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 67% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 57% | 55% | 47% | 67% | 100% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 100% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ALM Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -28% | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -17% | -5% | -13% | -20% | 0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ATI, CRS, FCX, TECK, SCCO.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 1/29/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
ALM has limited trading history. Below is the Materials sector ETF (XLB) in its place.
| Event | XLB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 534 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 121 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 617 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,761 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to ATI, CRS, FCX, TECK, SCCO
In The Past
Materials Select Sector SPDR's stock fell -25.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -25.7% loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.
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About Almonty Industries (ALM)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Analogies for Almonty Industries (ALM):- Cameco, but for tungsten.
- The Albemarle of tungsten.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Tungsten Concentrate: A critical metal concentrate extracted from Almonty's mining operations for various industrial applications.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Almonty Industries (ALM) primarily sells its tungsten concentrate and related products to other companies (B2B) for various industrial applications.
Major Customer:
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Plansee Group
The Plansee Group is a privately held Austrian company and a global leader in powder metallurgy, specializing in the production of high-performance materials made from refractory metals, including tungsten. Almonty has an exclusive 5-year off-take agreement with Plansee Group for 25% of the tungsten concentrate production from its Sangdong mine project in South Korea, commencing once the mine reaches commercial production.
While Almonty also sells tungsten concentrate from its Panasqueira mine in Portugal, these sales are typically to various industrial customers and traders primarily in the European market. The specific names of these individual customers are not publicly disclosed or do not represent major, singular off-take agreements comparable to the Plansee Group arrangement for the Sangdong project.
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- Sinosteel Engineering & Technology Co., Ltd. (000928.SZ)
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Lewis Black, Chairman, President & CEO
Born in London, Lewis Black holds a BA in management and technology from Manchester University. His career began in a global insurance firm before he transitioned into mining, accumulating over 15 years of experience. Prior to co-founding Almonty Industries in 2011, he served as head of sales and marketing for SC Mining Tungsten, Thailand. He also held the roles of Chairman and CEO of Primary Metals Inc. (PMI), a TSX-V listed tungsten mining company, from June 2005 to December 2007. PMI was subsequently acquired by Sojitz Corporation in 2008. As a founder of Almonty, Black has guided the company to specialize in acquiring and rehabilitating distressed and underperforming tungsten operations.
Brian Fox, Chief Financial Officer
Appointed as Chief Financial Officer, effective August 25, 2025, Brian Fox brings over 25 years of operational leadership experience. He most recently served as Chief Financial & Operating Officer at CBIZ Marks Paneth, a prominent U.S. accounting and advisory firm, where he contributed to strategic growth and post-merger integration. His previous experience includes leadership positions at Loureiro Engineering and United Subcontractors, as well as senior audit work at Arthur Andersen. Fox holds a Master's degree in Management from Harvard University and a Bachelor of Science in Accounting from the University of Connecticut. His appointment is a strategic move aligned with Almonty's U.S. redomiciling strategy and Nasdaq listing.
Fernando Vitorino, Chief Operating Officer
Fernando Vitorino was appointed Chief Operating Officer of Almonty Korea Tungsten Corp. on November 18, 2024. He possesses over 30 years of experience in mine management and more than 40 years in financial management. His career includes key roles with Anglo Group subsidiaries in Mozambique and South Africa. He later joined Beralt Tin and Wolfram at Almonty's Panasqueira Mine in Portugal, progressing from Financial Controller to Financial Manager, and ultimately to General Manager, a position he held until 2013. He has also been instrumental in managing operations at Almonty's Los Santos Mine and the Valtreixal project.
John Yi, President - Almonty Korea Tungsten
John Yi serves as President of Almonty Korea Tungsten. He took on this role effective February 1, 2021, as part of Almonty's strategy to enhance its focus on Korea and the broader Asian and Australian financial markets. Prior to joining Almonty, he was the President of Raytheon Korea, a U.S. defense contractor, and previously held a Vice President position at Rolls-Royce in Korea.
Marion McGrath, Corporate Secretary
Marion McGrath is the Corporate Secretary for Almonty Industries. She has over 30 years of experience in the securities industry, specializing in corporate governance and compliance for companies listed on the TSX Venture Exchange. Ms. McGrath is the owner of iO Corporate Services, a firm that provides corporate and accounting services to various publicly-traded Canadian companies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Almonty Industries (ALM) are:-
Financial Challenges and Unprofitability: Almonty Industries faces significant financial challenges, including a history of unprofitability and negative margins. The company reported an operating margin of -70.17% and a net margin of -216.27%, with a Return on Equity (ROE) of -110.38%. Addressing these financial challenges is crucial for the company's long-term sustainability and growth.
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Volatility in Tungsten Prices: As a tungsten producer, Almonty Industries is exposed to sector-specific risks, particularly the volatility in tungsten prices. Fluctuations in the price of tungsten, specifically ammonium para tungstate (APT) from which Almonty's tungsten concentrate sale price is derived, can significantly impact the company's profitability.
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Geopolitical and Supply Chain Risks: Almonty Industries is subject to geopolitical factors affecting supply chains, as well as environmental, economic, and political risks in the jurisdictions where it operates. Broader market dynamics, such as U.S. tariff hikes on steel and aluminum, can also influence global trade flows and raw material pricing, impacting companies like Almonty.
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nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Almonty Industries (ALM) primarily focuses on tungsten mining and exploration, with molybdenum as a significant byproduct. The addressable markets for these main products are as follows:
- Tungsten: The global tungsten market was valued at approximately USD 4.75 billion in 2024. This market is projected to grow to approximately USD 9.65 billion by 2033, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.20% from 2025 to 2033. The Asia Pacific region holds the largest share of the global tungsten market.
- Molybdenum: The global molybdenum market size was valued at approximately USD 5.04 billion in 2024. It is expected to reach USD 6.14 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 2.50% during the forecast period. The Asia Pacific region dominates the molybdenum market, holding over 61.4% of the market share in 2024.
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Almonty Industries (ALM) is anticipated to experience significant revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors:
- Sangdong Mine Transition to Full Production: The company's flagship Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea is transitioning from development to commercial production, poised to become the largest tungsten mine in the Western world. This operational milestone is expected to substantially increase Almonty's output, with plans to triple production to approximately 2.4 million tons of tungsten ore by 2027, potentially supplying about 40% of tungsten from allied nations.
- Favorable Tungsten Market Dynamics: Growing global defense budgets, restrictions by the U.S. Department of Defense on critical materials from non-friendly sources, and export limitations from China are driving up tungsten prices and demand. Almonty is strategically positioned as a key supplier outside of China and Russia, benefiting from these geopolitical and market shifts.
- NASDAQ Listing and Enhanced Market Position: Almonty's successful listing on the Nasdaq Capital Market in July 2025 has enhanced its strategic visibility and access to capital in essential mineral markets. This increased exposure can lead to new strategic partnerships and expanded customer opportunities, particularly with Western governments and defense customers seeking secure, long-term tungsten supply.
- Acquisition of New Strategic Tungsten Project: The recent acquisition of a strategic U.S. tungsten project in Beaverhead County, Montana, further expands Almonty's asset portfolio and potential market reach within a key demand region. This move contributes to diversifying its operational base and securing future supply.
- Strong Analyst Revenue Growth Forecasts: Financial analysts project substantial revenue growth for Almonty. Simply Wall St forecasts annual revenue growth of 50.5%, with the company expected to become profitable within the next three years. D.A. Davidson specifically forecasts revenue to grow from CAD 120 million to CAD 420 million by 2028, reflecting a strong positive outlook on the company's future financial performance.
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```htmlShare Issuance
- In July 2025, Almonty Industries completed an oversubscribed public offering on Nasdaq, issuing 20 million common shares at US$4.50 per share, raising total gross proceeds of US$90 million.
- During fiscal year 2024 (ending January 2025), share capital increased by $19.16 million, including the conversion of $9.23 million in debentures into 10.25 million shares and 2.58 million shares issued for debt-for-equity settlements.
- In January 2025, Almonty finalized an equity placement raising the equivalent of A$18.45 million through the issuance of 4.53 million Canadian units and 15.41 million CDI Units, with proceeds aimed at balance sheet restructuring.
Inbound Investments
- Almonty Industries secured a US$90 million cash injection in July 2025 through an oversubscribed public offering on the Nasdaq, primarily to fund the development of its tungsten oxide facility at the Sangdong Mine.
- In February 2020, the company received a binding commitment letter for a US$76 million project loan from KfW IPEX-Bank to finance the Sangdong mine project in South Korea.
- Almonty received its final drawdown of $906,000 (C$1.35 million) from the $75.1 million KfW IPEX-Bank project loan facility for the construction of the Sangdong Tungsten Mine in January 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In October 2025, Almonty Industries entered into a binding agreement to acquire the Gentung Browns Lake Tungsten Project in Beaverhead County, Montana, for a total consideration of $9.75 million, paid with US$750,000 in cash and US$9 million in common shares.
- A separate transaction in October 2025 involved the acquisition of a privately held Montana corporation for US$250,000, which owns key supporting assets for the Gentung Browns Lake project, including a plant permit, water rights, and tungsten processing equipment.
Capital Expenditures
- Construction at Almonty's flagship Sangdong Tungsten Mine in South Korea was substantially complete by Q3 2025, with ramp-up activities underway for an expected transition to commercial production.
- The company plans to reopen the Los Santos Mine in Spain, with an estimated capital expenditure of less than US$1.3 million to modify plant infrastructure for improved recovery rates from tailings, expected by Q3 2023.
- Future capital expenditures include an anticipated "limited capex" expansion for Sangdong Phase II, which aims to double mine output within 1-2 years from initial production, and approximately CAD 190 million in total capital investments for the adjacent Sangdong Molybdenum project.
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 94.06 |
| Mkt Cap | 23.0 |
| Rev LTM | 7,534 |
| Op Inc LTM | 937 |
| FCF LTM | 380 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 189 |
| CFO LTM | 1,094 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,523 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 23.0 |
| P/S | 4.4 |
| P/EBIT | 20.0 |
| P/E | 36.4 |
| P/CFO | 22.0 |
| Total Yield | 3.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 27.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 45.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 76.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 93.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 180.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 24.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 45.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 69.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 84.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 104.3% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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