Almonty Industries (ALM)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $14.64 | Market Cap: $3.5 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Almonty Industries (ALM)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $14.64Market Cap: $3.5 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Critical Minerals & Strategic Resources. Themes include Tungsten Mining & Supply, Industrial Hard Materials, and High-Performance Alloys. | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -29 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -90% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 110x | |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 151%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 213% | |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -59%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -246% | |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 154% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.6% | |
| Key risksALM key risks include [1] a history of significant unprofitability and negative margins and [2] geopolitical and supply chain vulnerabilities in the specific jurisdictions where it operates. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Critical Minerals & Strategic Resources. Themes include Tungsten Mining & Supply, Industrial Hard Materials, and High-Performance Alloys. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -29 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -90% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 110x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 151%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 213% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -59%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -246% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 154% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.6% |
| Key risksALM key risks include [1] a history of significant unprofitability and negative margins and [2] geopolitical and supply chain vulnerabilities in the specific jurisdictions where it operates. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Commissioning of Sangdong Tungsten Mine. The formal commissioning ceremony for the Sangdong Tungsten Mine in South Korea on March 17, 2026, marked its transition toward commercial operations after nearly three years of development. This project is considered one of the largest and highest-grade tungsten deposits globally, and the delivery of its first ore occurred in December 2025.
2. Surging Tungsten Prices. A significant macroeconomic factor contributing to the stock's gain was the dramatic increase in tungsten prices. The trailing twelve-month average Ammonium Paratungstate (APT) price surged by 534% to US$2,250 per Metric Ton Unit (MTU) as of March 13, 2026. Additionally, Chinese tungsten product prices increased over 200% in 2025 due to tighter export controls and reduced mining quotas, a trend that continued into 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 117.3% change in ALM stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 123.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.86 | 14.91 | 117.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 30 | 33 | 8.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 49.2 | 109.8 | 123.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 216 | 240 | -9.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 117.3% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALM | 117.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | 32.3% |
| Sector (XLB) | 10.0% | 26.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 235.1% change in ALM stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 261.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.45 | 14.91 | 235.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 28 | 33 | 15.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 30.3 | 109.8 | 261.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 192 | 240 | -19.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 235.1% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALM | 235.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 31.3% |
| Sector (XLB) | 7.1% | 32.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALM | ||
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 28.9% |
| Sector (XLB) | 12.4% | 26.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALM | ||
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 28.9% |
| Sector (XLB) | 26.8% | 26.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ALM Return | - | - | - | - | 85% | 67% | 208% |
| Peers Return | 24% | 30% | 45% | 32% | 62% | 15% | 470% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -5% | 72% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ALM Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 67% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 57% | 55% | 47% | 67% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ALM Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -28% | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -17% | -5% | -13% | -20% | -1% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ATI, CRS, FCX, TECK, SCCO.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
ALM has limited trading history. Below is the Materials sector ETF (XLB) in its place.
| Event | XLB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 534 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 121 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 617 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,761 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to ATI, CRS, FCX, TECK, SCCO
In The Past
Materials Select Sector SPDR's stock fell -25.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -25.7% loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.
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About Almonty Industries (ALM)
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. It's like a focused version of a major mining company such as Rio Tinto, but specializing in tungsten.
2. Think of it as the 'Barrick Gold' of tungsten mining – a specialist in a critical industrial metal.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Tungsten Concentrate: A processed ore containing a high concentration of tungsten, which is a critical metal used in various industrial applications like cutting tools, aerospace, and electronics.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Almonty Industries (ALM) is a tungsten mining company that extracts and processes tungsten concentrate. It sells this raw material primarily to other companies (B2B) for various industrial applications.
Due to the nature of commodity markets and competitive considerations, Almonty Industries does not publicly disclose the specific names of its major customer companies. However, its customers are industrial consumers and manufacturers across various sectors globally that require tungsten for their production processes. These include, but are not limited to, companies involved in:
- Manufacturing of hard metals and cutting tools (e.g., cemented carbides, industrial drills, wear-resistant components).
- Production for the aerospace, defense, and automotive industries, where tungsten is valued for its strength, density, and high-temperature resistance.
- Electronics, lighting, and chemical industries, utilizing tungsten in filaments, electrical contacts, and various chemical compounds.
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- DL E&C Co., Ltd. (KRX: 375500)
- Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) (KRX: 015760)
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Lewis Black, Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Black founded Almonty Industries in 2011. He previously served as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Primary Metals Inc. ("PMI"), a former TSX-V listed tungsten mining company, from June 2005 to December 2007. PMI was subsequently acquired by Sojitz Corporation in 2008. Prior to founding Almonty, Mr. Black was the head of sales and marketing for SC Mining Tungsten in Thailand. He holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in management and technology from Manchester University.
Brian Fox, Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Fox was appointed Chief Financial Officer, effective August 25, 2025, succeeding Mark Gelmon. He brings over 25 years of operational leadership experience, most recently serving as Chief Financial & Operating Officer at CBIZ Marks Paneth, a U.S. accounting and advisory firm. His prior experience includes leadership roles at Loureiro Engineering and United Subcontractors, as well as senior audit work at Arthur Andersen. Mr. Fox holds a Master's degree in Management from Harvard University and a Bachelor of Science in Accounting from the University of Connecticut.
Brigadier General (Retired) Steven L. Allen, Chief Operating Officer
General Allen was appointed Chief Operating Officer effective December 1, 2025. He brings over 33 years of distinguished U.S. military experience, having most recently served as Commanding General of the 19th Expeditionary Sustainment Command, Director of Logistics for U.S. Forces Korea, Combined Forces Command and United Nations Command, and Commandant of the U.S. Army Ordnance School. General Allen holds a Master of Strategic Studies from the U.S. Army War College, a Master of Business Administration from the Florida Institute of Technology, a Master of Science in Administration from Central Michigan University, and a Bachelor of Science in Industrial Technology from the University of North Dakota.
Guillaume Wiesenbach de Lamaziere, Chief Development Officer
Mr. Wiesenbach de Lamaziere was appointed Chief Development Officer on January 6, 2026. He is a seasoned financial and capital markets executive with over 30 years of experience, including leading complex, large-scale, cross-border projects in banking and asset management. He served as CEO and COO/CFO of AIG Asset Management Europe Ltd. in London and as CEO and COO/CFO of Banque AIG in Paris. His career also includes financial management roles at Natixis Capital Markets, Goldman Sachs, and Arthur Andersen. He holds an MBA from Texas A&M University and a Finance degree from Burgundy School of Business, France, and is a Chartered Financial Analyst.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Almonty Industries (ALM) primarily revolve around the inherent challenges of the mining industry, commodity price exposure, and financial health, particularly given its focus on tungsten extraction and development projects like the Sangdong Mine.
- Market Volatility and Tungsten Price Fluctuations: Almonty Industries' profitability is directly tied to the volatile market price of tungsten, which is derived from ammonium para tungstate (APT) prices. Significant fluctuations in these prices could adversely impact the company's revenues and earnings, despite having a "Floor Price" safety net for a portion of its sales.
- Operational and Execution Risks: The company faces substantial operational risks associated with mining, processing, and shipping tungsten concentrate from its various projects. These include potential delays in stabilizing and ramping up production at key mines, such as the Sangdong processing plant, as well as permitting hurdles and other technical and safety challenges inherent in large-scale mining operations.
- Financial Challenges and Funding Requirements: Almonty Industries has experienced financial difficulties, evidenced by negative operating and net margins, and has accumulated significant debt. The company's ability to fund its ongoing commitments and further expansion, particularly for large development projects, depends on securing adequate financing, which could also lead to shareholder dilution, as has occurred in the past.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Almonty Industries (symbol: ALM) primarily focuses on the mining, processing, and shipping of tungsten concentrate, with molybdenum concentrate as a significant byproduct in some of its operations.
The addressable markets for their main products are as follows:
- Tungsten: The global tungsten market was valued at approximately USD 7.3 billion in 2025 and is projected to expand to USD 7.6 billion in 2026.
- Molybdenum: The global molybdenum market size is estimated to be valued at approximately USD 4.82 billion in 2025.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Almonty Industries (ALM)
Over the next 2-3 years, Almonty Industries (ALM) is expected to experience revenue growth driven by several key factors:
- Commercial Production from the Sangdong Mine: Almonty Industries is transitioning its Sangdong Mine from development to full commercial production, with construction substantially complete and ramp-up activities underway. This move is expected to position Sangdong as the largest tungsten mine in the Western world, significantly increasing the company's output of tungsten concentrate.
- Favorable Tungsten Prices Driven by Supply-Demand Imbalance: The company is poised to benefit from a significant uptick in tungsten prices, which have seen substantial increases year-to-date. This surge is attributed to a global supply crisis and strong demand, particularly in key sectors such as defense and advanced technology, and exacerbated by Chinese export restrictions. Analysts have materially raised price assumptions for tungsten through approximately 2028.
- Increased Production and Higher-Grade Resources from Panasqueira Mine: Almonty's ongoing initiatives at its Panasqueira Mine, including an extensive drilling program aimed at accessing higher-grade resources, are expected to enhance its growth prospects and operational longevity. This focus on improved resource quality and extraction can lead to increased sales volume and potentially higher-value products.
- New Production from the U.S. Tungsten Project: Almonty acquired a strategic U.S. tungsten project in Beaverhead County, Montana, which is anticipated to begin near-term production as early as the second half of 2026. This new operational asset will contribute to the company's overall tungsten output and diversify its production base.
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Share Issuance
- Almonty successfully listed on the Nasdaq Capital Market in July 2025, concurrently completing an upsized public offering of common shares in the United States for gross proceeds of US$90 million.
- The number of outstanding shares increased from 120.1 million as of December 31, 2024, to 185.6 million as of September 30, 2025.
- The number of shares outstanding increased by 16.04% in one year as of July 7, 2025.
Inbound Investments
- The company's cash and cash equivalents significantly increased to $111.6 million as of September 30, 2025, from $7.8 million as of December 31, 2024, primarily due to the US$90 million public offering.
- Institutional investors hold a total of 56,964,221 shares, with major shareholders including Van Eck Associates Corp and Fmr Llc.
- First Eagle Investment Management initiated a 90,000-share stake in Almonty Industries in Q3 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for the third quarter of 2025 were 25.6 million CAD.
- In the 12 months leading up to July 7, 2025, capital expenditures totaled -$45.80 million.
- Significant capital has been allocated to the Sangdong mine in South Korea, where construction is substantially complete, and the company is transitioning from development to production to establish it as a major tungsten mine.
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Peer Comparisons
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Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 98.34 |
| Mkt Cap | 21.4 |
| Rev LTM | 7,672 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,037 |
| FCF LTM | 325 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 177 |
| CFO LTM | 1,047 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,577 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 21.4 |
| P/S | 5.3 |
| P/EBIT | 15.6 |
| P/E | 34.1 |
| P/CFO | 22.4 |
| Total Yield | 3.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.2% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -17.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 10.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 54.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 92.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 175.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -9.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 19.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 64.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 73.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 121.4% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
External Quote Links
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