Critical Metals (CRML)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $8.23 | Market Cap: $-Sector: Materials | Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Critical Metals (CRML)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $8.23Market Cap: $-Sector: MaterialsIndustry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Rare Earth Elements, Advanced Battery Components, Show more. | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 471% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 179% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Rare Earth Elements, Advanced Battery Components, Show more. |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 471% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 179% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CRML Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
During the approximate period from late August 2025 to December 4, 2025, Critical Metals (CRML) experienced a sharp 90-day share price return of 42.51%. This significant movement was driven by several key developments:
1. Positive Market Reaction to Koralpe Lithium Project Review. On December 3, 2025, Critical Metals saw its stock rise by 9.8% (Simply Wall St) or 8.9% (MarketBeat) after Austria's Federal Administrative Court ordered a fresh, expert-driven review of its Koralpe Lithium Mining project under European Union law. While this introduced further regulatory scrutiny, the market reacted positively to the decision.
2. Acquisition of a $20 Million Copper Powder Stockpile. Around November 21, 2025, Critical Metals announced the acquisition of a large stockpile of ultra-high-purity copper powder valued at $20 million through an all-share deal. This strategic move was seen to enhance the company's positioning in the defense and technology sectors.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CRML Return | - | - | - | - | - | 21% | 21% |
| Peers Return | 28% | 15% | 14% | -4% | -3% | 33% | 108% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CRML Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 30% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 37% | 28% | 33% | 32% | 34% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CRML Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -80% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -6% | -9% | -13% | -12% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WRN, XPL, CRML, NEXM, TECK.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
CRML has limited trading history. Below is the Materials sector ETF (XLB) in its place.
| Event | XLB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 534 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 121 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 617 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1761 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
Materials Select Sector SPDR's stock fell -25.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -25.7% loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Day 5 of Gains Streak for Critical Metals Stock with 199% Return (vs. 341% YTD) [10/14/2025] | Notification | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Up 65% Last Week, What’s Driving Critical Metals Stock Higher? | October 8th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CRML. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Critical Metals
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 3.81 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| Rev LTM | 0 |
| Op Inc LTM | -7 |
| FCF LTM | -34 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -31 |
| CFO LTM | -4 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -4 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 29.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -12.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -3.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -7.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/EBIT | -11.6 |
| P/E | -12.8 |
| P/CFO | -13.1 |
| Total Yield | -0.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -8.0% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 32.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 59.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 3.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 23.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 30.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 45.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -31.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 10062025 | 20-F 6/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3192025 | 6-K 12/31/2024 |
| 6302024 | 10302024 | 20-F 6/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3282024 | 6-K 12/31/2023 |
| 6302023 | 12282023 | 424B3 6/30/2023 |
| 6302022 | 8072023 | F-4/A 6/30/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |