Critical Metals (CRML)
Market Price (3/28/2026): $7.0 | Market Cap: $-Sector: Materials | Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Critical Metals (CRML)
Market Price (3/28/2026): $7.0Market Cap: $-Sector: MaterialsIndustry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Rare Earth Elements, Advanced Battery Components, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -69%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -116% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 410% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 177% | ||
| Key risksCRML key risks include [1] significant financing and execution challenges for its early-stage Tanbreez and Wolfsberg projects, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Rare Earth Elements, Advanced Battery Components, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -69%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -116% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 410% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 177% |
| Key risksCRML key risks include [1] significant financing and execution challenges for its early-stage Tanbreez and Wolfsberg projects, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Critical Metals (CRML) experienced a substantial share dilution, with total shares outstanding increasing by 32% in the past year. This dilution can decrease the value of existing shares by spreading company ownership over a larger number of shares, often leading to downward pressure on the stock price.
2. The company continues to face challenges with unprofitability and a "Going Concern" warning. Critical Metals has been unprofitable, with losses increasing at an average annual rate of 66% over the last five years, resulting in a negative Return on Equity of -106.55%. An auditor also raised a "Going Concern" doubt around October 2025, highlighting significant financial uncertainties.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CRML | -14.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | 25.0% |
| Sector (XLB) | 10.0% | 22.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CRML | 13.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 22.5% |
| Sector (XLB) | 7.1% | 19.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CRML | 268.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 13.6% |
| Sector (XLB) | 12.4% | 16.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CRML | ||
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 16.1% |
| Sector (XLB) | 26.8% | 14.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CRML Return | - | - | - | -56% | 2% | 7% | -52% |
| Peers Return | 542% | 3% | -27% | -41% | 112% | -7% | 456% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -5% | 72% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CRML Win Rate | - | - | - | 27% | 58% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 43% | 47% | 40% | 43% | 60% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CRML Max Drawdown | - | - | - | -63% | -80% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -39% | -44% | -57% | -30% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MP, ALB, LAC, SGML, SLI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
CRML has limited trading history. Below is the Materials sector ETF (XLB) in its place.
| Event | XLB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 534 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 121 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 617 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,761 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to MP, ALB, LAC, SGML, SLI
In The Past
Materials Select Sector SPDR's stock fell -25.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -25.7% loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.
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About Critical Metals (CRML)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few brief analogies for Critical Metals (CRML):
- An early-stage Albemarle for lithium.
- A single-project Rio Tinto, but for lithium.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Lithium: Critical Metals Corp. is focused on the exploration and development of the Wolfsberg Lithium Project, with the ultimate goal of producing lithium for various industrial applications.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Critical Metals Corp. (CRML) is currently a mining exploration and development company. It owns interests in the Wolfsberg Lithium Project, which is still in the development phase. As such, Critical Metals Corp. is not yet in commercial production and therefore does not have major customers for a product or service at this time.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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Tony Sage Chief Executive Officer, Executive Chairman and Director
Tony Sage has over 35 years of experience in corporate advisory services, funds management, and capital raising, primarily within the resource sector. He has managed and financed listed mining companies for more than two decades, operating across various continents. Mr. Sage currently serves as Executive Chairman of ASX-listed CuFe Ltd and European Lithium Limited, and was formerly Executive Chairman of Cyclone Metals Limited. He has a history of founding or chairing numerous resource firms, including International Goldfields Ltd, Hamill Resources Ltd (later Cape Lambert Resources Ltd), Cauldron Energy, Fe Limited, and Cyclone Metals Limited. He has also orchestrated significant deals, such as a $20 million acquisition that yielded $400 million in value within 24 months in 2008 and a 52% return on $135 million in CopperCo assets.
Sergey Savchenko Chief Financial Officer
Sergey Savchenko is an established finance leader in the U.S. public markets with over 24 years of expertise in accounting and finance, encompassing public and corporate accounting, corporate finance, and investor relations. He played an active role in Critical Metals Corp's Nasdaq listing. Prior to joining Critical Metals Corp, Mr. Savchenko consulted for special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) on various aspects of accounting and financial reporting, initial public offerings, and mergers.
Dietrich Wanke President of European Operations
Dietrich Wanke, previously the CEO of Critical Metals Corp, was appointed President of European Operations in April 2024. In this role, he focuses entirely on overseeing the operations and advancing the development and future production of the Wolfsberg Lithium Project in Austria. He is recognized as a seasoned operator within the mining industry.
George Karageorge Chief Technical Officer
George Karageorge is a highly experienced senior executive and director of public companies, having served on the boards of multiple ASX and TSX companies as both CEO and Managing Director since 2011. He brings over 30 years of professional experience in the mining, engineering, and exploration sectors, covering a diverse range of commodities.
Thomas McNamara Director of Corporate Development & Investor Relations
Thomas McNamara has more than two decades of experience in strategic advisory and industry trend analysis across the mining, metals, energy, chemicals, automotive, and industrial sectors. He has a proven track record of successfully leading investment initiatives, advising senior leadership on complex equity and debt offerings, and delivering market insights to inform business strategy.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Critical Metals Corp. (CRML) are primarily associated with its status as a development-stage mining exploration company with significant financial hurdles, complex project execution, and exposure to volatile markets and geopolitical factors.
1. Financial Challenges and Lack of Revenue
Critical Metals Corp. is a pre-revenue company that has incurred significant operating losses and negative cash flow. For instance, it reported a $13.1 million operating income loss in one quarter and has seen losses increase annually. The company has high capital requirements for its mining projects, such as the $30 million initiative to accelerate the Tanbreez project, and its financial sustainability is heavily reliant on the future success of these ventures. Its current financial health indicates areas of concern, including a low current ratio of 0.13 and a quick ratio of 0.13, suggesting potential liquidity challenges, and a negative free cash flow yield.
2. Project Execution and Permitting Risks
Both of Critical Metals' primary projects, Wolfsberg Lithium in Austria and Tanbreez Rare Earth in Greenland, face substantial execution and permitting risks.
- Wolfsberg Lithium Project: While Critical Metals claims the Wolfsberg Lithium Project is "fully permitted," an Austrian court overturned a key permit, necessitating a case-by-case environmental review by Carinthian authorities. This introduces regulatory uncertainty and could affect project timelines. Austrian officials have also openly questioned the project's intent, suggesting it may be more for stock promotion than actual mine development, and have confirmed that core mining and construction permits have not been granted.
- Tanbreez Rare Earth Project: Concerns exist regarding the technical feasibility of processing the Tanbreez ore, particularly the Eudialyte concentrate, which some research suggests cannot be commercially processed due to a "silica-gel problem" that hinders metal extraction. Experts indicate there is effectively no market for this concentrate. The project is also still in an early stage, with the definitive feasibility study for Tanbreez expected in late 2025.
3. Geopolitical and Market Volatility Risks
The markets for rare earth elements and lithium are inherently volatile and subject to geopolitical influences. Prices can fluctuate widely due to manipulation and political risks. While current geopolitical tensions may temporarily benefit the rare earth sector as nations seek to reduce dependence on certain suppliers, shifts in international trade relations or the development of alternative materials could negatively impact demand and pricing for Critical Metals' products. Additionally, mining operations in Greenland and Austria are susceptible to regional regulatory changes and environmental compliance, which are continuously evolving.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Widespread adoption of alternative battery chemistries not relying on lithium, such as sodium-ion batteries, which could significantly reduce the demand for lithium in electric vehicles and energy storage applications.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Critical Metals Corp. (symbol: CRML) is involved in the mining exploration and development of lithium and rare earth elements. The addressable market sizes for their main products are as follows:Lithium
Critical Metals Corp. holds interests in the Wolfsberg Lithium Project located in Carinthia, Austria, which is positioned to supply the European market. The European lithium market was valued at approximately USD 10,125.8 million in 2024 and is projected to grow to about USD 31,651.3 million by 2033, exhibiting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 13.5% from 2025 to 2033.Rare Earth Elements (REE)
Critical Metals Corp.'s flagship project, Tanbreez, located in Southern Greenland, is one of the world's largest known rare earth deposits, particularly rich in Heavy Rare Earth Elements (HREE). This project aims to supply rare earth elements to North America and Europe/Western markets. The global market for Heavy Rare Earth Elements (HREE) was valued at approximately USD 2.5 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 4.8 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 7.5% during that forecast period. The broader global rare earth elements market had varying estimates, with one report valuing it at USD 14.0 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 41.1 billion by 2034 with a CAGR of 12.30% from 2026-2034. For the European region, the rare earth elements market generated a revenue of USD 249.8 million in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 391.5 million by 2030, at a CAGR of 8.3% from 2025 to 2030.AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Critical Metals (CRML) over the next 2-3 years:
- Commencement and Ramp-up of Lithium Production from the Wolfsberg Project: Critical Metals' primary revenue driver is expected to be the successful initiation and scaling of lithium production from its Wolfsberg Lithium Project in Austria. First production is targeted for 2026/2027. The Wolfsberg project is noted as the first fully permitted spodumene mine in Europe, playing a strategic role in the region's integrated lithium-ion battery supply chain. A decision to commence mining is anticipated by the end of 2026, contingent on sustained lithium prices and available financing.
- Favorable Lithium Market Dynamics: The company's future revenue growth will be significantly influenced by a sustained recovery and strong demand in the global lithium market. Critical Metals has highlighted strong lithium price recovery, with gains in battery-grade lithium carbonate and spodumene, which are crucial for supporting project financing and overall revenue. The increasing global demand for critical minerals, particularly lithium for electric vehicles (EVs) and battery storage, is expected to support this growth.
- Strategic Offtake Agreements and Downstream Processing Partnerships: Critical Metals has secured a long-term lithium offtake agreement with BMW Group, which included a US$15 million prepayment. This agreement provides a committed customer for a significant portion of its future lithium production. Additionally, a joint venture with Obeikan Investment Group to establish a Lithium Hydroxide Refinery in Saudi Arabia supports downstream processing, which could enhance margins and expand global market reach for the company's products.
- Initial Production from the Tanbreez Rare Earth Project: While primarily focused on lithium, Critical Metals also holds the Tanbreez rare earth project in Greenland. An acceleration program for Tanbreez has been approved, with first ore production targeted for Q4 2028 or Q1 2029. The development and eventual output from this project within or just beyond the 2-3 year timeframe will introduce a new revenue stream from rare earth minerals, diversifying the company's commodity exposure.
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Share Issuance
- Critical Metals Corp. had 105 million shares outstanding in Q4 2025, marking a 29.5% increase from the prior quarter. The number of shares outstanding increased by 250.83% in one year, reaching 126.23 million shares.
- In March 2026, Critical Metals Corp. entered into a new agreement with GEM Global Yield LLC SCS and GEM Yield Bahamas Limited, leading to the issuance of 1,409,624 ordinary shares upon GEM's full exercise of a February 2024 warrant, and a further 2,744,062 ordinary shares for no additional consideration in a private placement.
- The company reported the issuance of common stock valued at $27.26 million in fiscal year 2025, $8.36 million in fiscal year 2024, and $5.37 million in fiscal year 2023.
Inbound Investments
- Critical Metals Corp. completed a capital raising transaction on February 7, 2025.
- The company may receive cash proceeds from the exercise of Placement Agent Warrants at an initial exercise price of $7.00 per share, as part of a shelf registration to register up to 2,777,600 ordinary shares for resale by selling securityholders.
- A $120 million EXIM Bank Letter of Interest (LOI) has been mentioned in relation to the Tanbreez project.
Outbound Investments
- Critical Metals Corp. reported investments in securities of $5.65 million in fiscal year 2025 and $5 million in fiscal year 2024.
Capital Expenditures
- As of June 30, 2025, and June 30, 2024, Critical Metals Corp. spent approximately $39.7 million and $35.2 million, respectively, on exploration and evaluation activities at its Wolfsberg Project.
- Capital expenditures were reported as -$1.04 million in fiscal year 2025, -$1.07 million in fiscal year 2024, and -$2.99 million in fiscal year 2023.
- The company's board approved a $30 million acceleration program for the Tanbreez heavy rare earth project in Greenland, aimed at advancing it towards first ore production in late 2028 or early 2029, with concentrate exports targeted by Q3 2029.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Day 5 of Gains Streak for Critical Metals Stock with 199% Return (vs. 341% YTD) [10/14/2025] | 10/15/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Up 65% Last Week, What’s Driving Critical Metals Stock Higher? | 10/08/2025 |
Trade Ideas
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| 12122025 | AMCR | Amcor | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 19.2% | 19.2% | -0.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 8.75 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.2 |
| Rev LTM | 135 |
| Op Inc LTM | -20 |
| FCF LTM | -38 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -233 |
| CFO LTM | -20 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -18 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -4.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -13.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -8.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -32.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 5.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -15.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -12.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -28.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -50.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.2 |
| P/S | 8.7 |
| P/EBIT | -61.3 |
| P/E | -41.1 |
| P/CFO | -40.9 |
| Total Yield | -2.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -5.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -24.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -12.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 1.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 121.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -34.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -16.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 0.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 108.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -95.6% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $7.04 | |
| First Trading Date | 02/28/2024 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -76.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $11.41 | $8.73 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -38.3% | -19.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 159.8% | 177.6% |
| Downside Capture | 2.64 | 1.61 |
| Upside Capture | 548.77 | 366.73 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 24.6% | 15.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.10 | 2.04 | 2.55 | 3.03 | 1.05 | 0.92 |
| Up Beta | 2.91 | -1.87 | -4.18 | 2.11 | -0.01 | -0.23 |
| Down Beta | -2.63 | -0.45 | -0.43 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.29 |
| Up Capture | 35% | 815% | 1033% | 951% | 992% | 301% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 19 | 29 | 56 | 114 | 222 |
| Down Capture | 596% | 265% | 391% | 260% | 130% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 22 | 32 | 67 | 132 | 270 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CRML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRML | 477.5% | 177.2% | 1.78 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 14.6% | 20.9% | 0.55 | 17.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 18.9% | 0.59 | 14.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.2% | 27.7% | 1.46 | 19.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 17.8% | 17.6% | 0.85 | 10.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.4% | 16.4% | -0.15 | 4.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -21.0% | 44.0% | -0.41 | 17.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CRML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRML | -12.6% | 156.8% | 0.51 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 6.7% | 18.9% | 0.25 | 14.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.8% | 17.0% | 0.54 | 15.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.7% | 17.7% | 0.96 | 16.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.9% | 0.50 | 12.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.0% | 18.8% | 0.07 | 3.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.7% | 56.6% | 0.30 | 16.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CRML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRML | -6.5% | 156.8% | 0.51 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.1% | 20.6% | 0.44 | 14.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 15.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 15.8% | 0.70 | 16.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 12.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 3.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.9% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 16.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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