Tearsheet

MGP Ingredients (MGPI)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $25.105 | Market Cap: $536.6 Mil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Distillers & Vintners

MGP Ingredients (MGPI)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $25.105
Market Cap: $536.6 Mil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Distillers & Vintners

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -116%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -146%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 52%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 12%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 44x
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -19%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more.
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.6%
4   Key risks
MGPI key risks include [1] exceptionally high financial leverage, Show more.
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 12%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -116%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -146%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 52%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 44x
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -19%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.6%
9 Key risks
MGPI key risks include [1] exceptionally high financial leverage, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MGPI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the approximate -14.8% movement in MGP Ingredients (MGPI) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:

1. Mixed Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Report: While MGP Ingredients reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.85, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.62, its consolidated sales for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, decreased by 19% year-over-year to $130.9 million, despite slightly exceeding analyst expectations. This decline in revenue, coupled with a 25% decrease in consolidated gross profit, indicated significant top-line pressures.

2. Significant Decline in Distilling Solutions Segment Sales: A primary driver for the overall sales decrease was the expected decline in "brown goods" sales within the Distilling Solutions segment. This was attributed to constrained customer demand amid high industry-wide barrel inventories.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MGPI Return-2%82%26%-7%-60%-34%-44%
Peers Return33%7%4%5%-4%-15%25%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MGPI Win Rate42%58%75%50%33%50% 
Peers Win Rate58%55%53%53%45%42% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MGPI Max Drawdown-53%-1%-11%-21%-60%-44% 
Peers Max Drawdown-35%-14%-15%-11%-17%-28% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: STZ, ADM, INGR, SAM, TAP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMGPIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-33.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven49.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-57.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven132.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven302 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-56.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven128.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven925 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-97.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven4516.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2,471 days1,480 days

Compare to STZ, WVVI, AGCC, BF-B, MGPI


In The Past

MGP Ingredients's stock fell -33.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/25/2022. A -33.2% loss requires a 49.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About MGP Ingredients (MGPI)

Better Bets than MGP Ingredients (MGPI)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MGPI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.9%-5.9%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
15.4%15.4%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.7%6.7%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.7%-3.7%-5.1%
MGPI_12312022_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%12312022MGPIMGP IngredientsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.1%-7.0%-20.8%
MGPI_1312022_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%01312022MGPIMGP IngredientsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
40.9%29.5%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.9%-5.9%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
15.4%15.4%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.7%6.7%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.7%-3.7%-5.1%
MGPI_12312022_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%12312022MGPIMGP IngredientsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.1%-7.0%-20.8%
MGPI_1312022_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%01312022MGPIMGP IngredientsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
40.9%29.5%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for MGP Ingredients

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MGPISTZADMINGRSAMTAPMedian
NameMGP Ingr.Constell.Archer-D.IngredionBoston B.Molson C. 
Mkt Price25.07139.7258.56111.75198.3248.0685.16
Mkt Cap0.524.628.97.22.29.58.3
Rev LTM5799,62483,2117,2621,98211,2148,443
Op Inc LTM1103,0421,5191,0601581,6611,290
FCF LTM621,8484,7035462121,093820
FCF 3Y Avg371,6772,9066971741,202950
CFO LTM1212,7696,0879752721,7381,357
CFO 3Y Avg982,8414,3821,0352401,8721,454

Growth & Margins

MGPISTZADMINGRSAMTAPMedian
NameMGP Ingr.Constell.Archer-D.IngredionBoston B.Molson C. 
Rev Chg LTM-21.5%-5.6%-4.4%-3.8%-1.1%-4.0%-4.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-7.9%0.7%-5.5%-1.8%-0.1%1.7%-1.0%
Rev Chg Q-18.9%-15.0%2.2%-2.9%-11.2%-2.3%-7.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-5.0%-4.4%0.5%-0.7%-3.3%-0.6%-2.0%
Op Mgn LTM18.9%31.6%1.8%14.6%8.0%14.8%14.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg20.4%31.7%3.0%12.8%7.3%14.6%13.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.5%-0.1%-0.1%-0.3%-1.0%-0.2%-0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM20.9%28.8%7.3%13.4%13.7%15.5%14.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg14.6%28.8%5.1%13.6%11.9%16.3%14.1%
FCF/Rev LTM10.7%19.2%5.7%7.5%10.7%9.8%10.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.8%17.0%3.4%9.2%8.7%10.5%8.9%

Valuation

MGPISTZADMINGRSAMTAPMedian
NameMGP Ingr.Constell.Archer-D.IngredionBoston B.Molson C. 
Mkt Cap0.524.628.97.22.29.58.3
P/S0.92.50.31.11.20.81.0
P/EBIT44.411.2-8.214.55.511.2
P/E-34.219.424.311.924.9-4.315.6
P/CFO4.38.64.88.18.45.26.6
Total Yield-2.4%6.7%5.8%11.1%4.0%-19.1%4.9%
Dividend Yield0.5%1.5%1.7%2.7%0.0%4.2%1.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.9%4.9%-8.6%5.7%10.6%5.7%
D/E0.50.4-0.20.00.70.4
Net D/E0.50.4-0.1-0.10.60.4

Returns

MGPISTZADMINGRSAMTAPMedian
NameMGP Ingr.Constell.Archer-D.IngredionBoston B.Molson C. 
1M Rtn1.9%6.7%-0.3%4.4%2.3%6.4%3.4%
3M Rtn-8.6%5.8%-3.3%-9.2%-12.0%3.6%-6.0%
6M Rtn-17.0%-11.5%10.3%-17.3%-1.6%0.4%-6.5%
12M Rtn-41.8%-38.5%18.2%-19.4%-35.6%-15.9%-27.5%
3Y Rtn-76.8%-36.2%-30.1%23.6%-42.4%3.3%-33.1%
1M Excs Rtn1.2%6.0%-1.0%3.7%1.5%5.7%2.6%
3M Excs Rtn-10.1%4.5%-4.3%-10.6%-12.6%2.2%-7.2%
6M Excs Rtn-29.4%-23.9%-2.1%-29.7%-14.0%-11.9%-18.9%
12M Excs Rtn-54.7%-51.3%5.0%-31.7%-48.1%-29.5%-39.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-146.4%-108.3%-99.3%-46.1%-113.2%-68.6%-103.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Branded Spirits9116996596 
Distilling Solutions369350315282272
Ingredient solutions8964434131
Corporate2445253720
Total1,3921,1581,041367323


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,481,427
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-3.3%
Average Daily Volume281,410
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.26
Basic Shares Quantity21,373,300
Short % of Basic Shares6.9%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/20254.3%5.0%-2.9%
7/31/2025-3.7%-5.7%0.4%
2/26/2025-1.1%-0.7%-10.8%
10/17/2024-24.2%-29.4%-39.0%
8/1/20245.6%2.6%11.0%
5/2/20245.1%5.1%-0.7%
2/22/2024-14.9%-11.9%-7.8%
11/2/20233.4%2.7%-5.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141211
# Negative81011
Median Positive5.5%5.0%10.5%
Median Negative-6.9%-9.6%-7.8%
Max Positive12.4%12.0%27.2%
Max Negative-27.7%-30.5%-39.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251029202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021