Kellanova (K)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $83.1 | Market Cap: $28.8 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Kellanova (K)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $83.1Market Cap: $28.8 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
K Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points highlighting the movement of Kellanova's (K) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Q3 2025 Earnings Beat on Adjusted EPS.
Kellanova reported its Third Quarter 2025 results on October 30, 2025, where it met Wall Street's revenue expectations of $3.26 billion but significantly beat adjusted earnings per share (EPS) estimates, reporting $0.94 per share against analyst consensus of $0.87. This 8.5% beat in profitability likely contributed positively to investor sentiment.
2. Progress Towards Mars Inc. Acquisition.
The ongoing progression of the $35.9 billion acquisition by Mars Inc., expected to finalize by the end of 2025, provided a significant floor for Kellanova's stock price. The agreed-upon acquisition price of $83.50 per share (approved by shareholders in November 2024) likely kept the stock trading close to this value throughout the period.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| K Return | -7% | 7% | 14% | -13% | 50% | 6% | 57% |
| Peers Return | 64% | 1% | -13% | 14% | 6% | -14% | 49% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| K Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 58% | 42% | 75% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 54% | 38% | 35% | 40% | 33% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| K Max Drawdown | -22% | -9% | -6% | -26% | -4% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -12% | -23% | -11% | -14% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DAR, FRPT, BRBF, MEHA, MDLZ. See K Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | K | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 307 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -24.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 127 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -30.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1163 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 783 days | 1480 days |
Compare to DAR, FRPT, BRBF, MEHA, MDLZ
In The Past
Kellanova's stock fell -36.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/31/2022. A -36.7% loss requires a 58.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to K. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Kellanova
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2202024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2212023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 10/1/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |