Tearsheet

Hydrofarm (HYFM)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.96 | Market Cap: $9.1 Mil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery

Hydrofarm (HYFM)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.96
Market Cap: $9.1 Mil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Food & Agriculture, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Controlled Environment Agriculture (CEA), Urban & Vertical Farming, Show more.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -130%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -165%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -48 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -30%
1   Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 881%
2   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -28%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -28%
3   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.4%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.4%
4   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 667%
5   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -360%
6   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 1094%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Food & Agriculture, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Controlled Environment Agriculture (CEA), Urban & Vertical Farming, Show more.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -130%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -165%
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -48 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -30%
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 881%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -28%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -28%
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.4%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.4%
6 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 667%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -360%
8 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 1094%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

HYFM Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, Hydrofarm (HYFM) stock experienced a significant decline, with reports indicating a drop of around 63% to 68.55% during 2025. This movement can be attributed to several key factors: **1. Poor Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results.** Hydrofarm Holdings Group announced its third-quarter results on November 13, 2025, reporting a substantial decrease in net sales to $29.4 million from $44.0 million in the prior year's quarter. The gross profit margin also declined to 11.6% of sales from 19.4%, and the company reported a net loss of $16.4 million, an increase from a $13.1 million loss in the same quarter the previous year. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $4.4 million, worsening from a small loss of less than $0.1 million in the prior year.

**2. Withdrawal of Full Year 2025 Outlook and Lingering Industry Headwinds.** Earlier in 2025, specifically on May 15, 2025, Hydrofarm withdrew its full-year 2025 outlook for net sales, Adjusted EBITDA, and Free Cash Flow due to macroeconomic uncertainty related to evolving global tariff policy and prolonged cannabis industry headwinds. These continued challenges in the cannabis industry and broader economic pressures contributed to a bearish sentiment throughout the year, impacting the stock's performance into the latter part of 2025.

**3. Negative Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets.** Analyst ratings and price targets issued prior to and during the period reflected a negative outlook for HYFM. For instance, UBS set a price target of $0.65 for HYFM on August 14, 2024, projecting a potential decline of 64.25% within 12 months, which would extend into the requested 2025 period. Other analyst firms also implied a significant downside, indicating a lack of confidence in the company's future performance.

**4. Leadership Transition Amidst Operational Challenges.** Hydrofarm announced a CEO transition, effective December 1, 2025, with Executive Chairman Bill Toler returning as Chief Executive Officer, replacing John Lindeman. This change in leadership, occurring alongside significant financial struggles and ongoing operational adjustments like facility consolidations, could signal instability or a need for drastic strategic shifts, contributing to investor uncertainty.

**5. High Short Interest Indicating Bearish Market Sentiment.** As of November 28, 2025, Hydrofarm Holdings Group had a short sale ratio of 53.02%, which was rising. A high and increasing short interest suggests that a substantial number of investors are betting against the stock, anticipating further price declines and reflecting a strong negative market sentiment towards the company.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
HYFM Return--46%-95%-41%-37%-66%-100%
Peers Return24%11%11%12%-7%-10%43%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
HYFM Win Rate 33%25%42%33%60% 
Peers Win Rate53%43%43%35%33%49% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
HYFM Max Drawdown--52%-95%-53%-53%-91% 
Peers Max Drawdown-32%-7%-19%-9%-16%-24% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DE, AGCO, GENC, WNC, AEBI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventHYFMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-99.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven12667.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-18.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven22.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven7 days148 days

Compare to DE, AGCO, GENC, WNC, AEBI


In The Past

Hydrofarm's stock fell -99.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/16/2021. A -99.2% loss requires a 12667.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Hydrofarm (HYFM)

Better Bets than Hydrofarm (HYFM)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleTopic
0DASHBOARDS 
1Can Hydrofarm Stock Recover If Markets Fall?Return
Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to HYFM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Hydrofarm

Peers to compare with:

Financials

HYFMDEAGCOGENCWNCAEBIMedian
NameHydrofarmDeere AGCO Gencor I.Wabash N.Aebi Sch. 
Mkt Price1.88481.82105.1313.209.0612.0212.61
Mkt Cap0.0130.47.80.20.0-0.2
Rev LTM16143,39710,0491181,6381,0521,345
Op Inc LTM-488,6636581537168219
FCF LTM-134,101749-1108-4054
FCF 3Y Avg03,9866543118-118
CFO LTM-128,5561,0220150-2875
CFO 3Y Avg48,5221,0505186-186

Growth & Margins

HYFMDEAGCOGENCWNCAEBIMedian
NameHydrofarmDeere AGCO Gencor I.Wabash N.Aebi Sch. 
Rev Chg LTM-23.4%-20.9%-20.1%3.9%-22.9%--20.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-28.0%-0.6%-3.9%5.4%-9.8%--3.9%
Rev Chg Q-28.4%-8.3%-4.7%5.6%-17.8%--8.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-8.8%-2.4%-1.2%1.2%-4.8%--2.4%
Op Mgn LTM-30.1%20.0%6.5%13.2%22.6%6.4%9.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-25.9%22.3%9.2%12.5%6.8%-9.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-5.8%-1.2%0.4%0.8%29.6%-0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM-7.4%19.7%10.2%0.1%9.2%-2.7%4.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg0.8%16.5%8.6%4.4%8.7%-8.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-8.4%9.4%7.5%-0.8%6.6%-3.8%2.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-0.9%7.8%5.4%2.3%5.6%-5.4%

Valuation

HYFMDEAGCOGENCWNCAEBIMedian
NameHydrofarmDeere AGCO Gencor I.Wabash N.Aebi Sch. 
Mkt Cap0.0130.47.80.20.0-0.2
P/S0.13.20.81.70.0-0.8
P/EBIT-0.414.333.313.30.0-13.3
P/E-0.326.421.313.50.0-13.5
P/CFO-1.516.17.81,682.10.0-7.8
Total Yield-356.3%5.0%5.8%7.4%67,757.1%-5.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.2%1.1%0.0%3,467.9%-1.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg106.5%3.4%8.0%0.6%12,421.5%-8.0%
D/E9.40.50.40.01,078.5-0.5
Net D/E8.80.40.3-0.7851.5-0.4

Returns

HYFMDEAGCOGENCWNCAEBIMedian
NameHydrofarmDeere AGCO Gencor I.Wabash N.Aebi Sch. 
1M Rtn-23.7%4.3%0.2%-2.9%14.4%8.1%2.2%
3M Rtn-57.0%3.0%-2.3%-17.2%-17.1%4.9%-9.7%
6M Rtn-47.6%-4.5%6.0%-7.4%-0.0%--4.5%
12M Rtn-74.9%6.4%5.7%-39.6%-52.6%--39.6%
3Y Rtn-93.8%12.7%-14.6%22.3%-63.2%--14.6%
1M Excs Rtn-23.7%4.3%0.2%-2.8%14.4%8.2%2.3%
3M Excs Rtn-43.3%-3.5%-9.2%-23.7%-24.7%0.8%-16.5%
6M Excs Rtn-62.4%-19.2%-8.8%-22.1%-14.7%--19.2%
12M Excs Rtn-90.5%-8.7%-8.5%-54.1%-66.6%--54.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-164.9%-59.0%-83.8%-42.6%-135.1%--83.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Distribution and manufacture of controlled environment agriculture (CEA) equipment227345479342235
Total227345479342235


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity29,480
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120251.2%
Average Daily Volume20,988
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.40
Basic Shares Quantity4,646,096
Short % of Basic Shares0.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025812202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025513202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024305202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024514202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022309202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211115202110-Q 9/30/2021