GATX (GATX)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $170.745 | Market Cap: $6.1 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
GATX (GATX)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $170.745Market Cap: $6.1 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 31% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.2%, Dist 3Y High is -3.2% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 133% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -8.1% | Key risksGATX key risks include [1] heightened financial pressures from a significant debt burden and negative free cash flow, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 11% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 31% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.2%, Dist 3Y High is -3.2% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -8.1% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 133% |
| Key risksGATX key risks include [1] heightened financial pressures from a significant debt burden and negative free cash flow, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GATX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. GATX reported Q3 2025 earnings that missed EPS estimates but beat revenue expectations. GATX announced its Q3 2025 earnings on October 21, 2025, with an EPS of $2.10, missing the consensus estimate of $2.32. However, quarterly revenue rose 8.4% year-over-year to $439.30 million, surpassing the consensus estimate of $435.21 million.
2. The company reaffirmed its full-year 2025 earnings guidance. Despite the mixed Q3 results, GATX reiterated its full-year 2025 earnings guidance of $8.50–$8.90 per diluted share, excluding tax adjustments and other one-time items.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GATX Return | 3% | 28% | 4% | 15% | 31% | 11% | 131% |
| Peers Return | 4% | 20% | -0% | 41% | 129% | -4% | 289% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GATX Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 58% | 58% | 67% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 53% | 38% | 57% | 63% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GATX Max Drawdown | -36% | -1% | -17% | -5% | -3% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -63% | -8% | -33% | -20% | -5% | -34% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TRN, GBX, AL, FTAI, WLFC. See GATX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GATX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 250 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -36.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 218 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 740 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -73.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 271.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,480 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to URI, GATX, HRI, MGRC, ANDE
In The Past
GATX's stock fell -32.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/30/2022. A -32.6% loss requires a 48.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| GATX Earnings Notes | |||
| Is GATX Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback? | Return | ||
| GATX vs Newmont: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| GATX vs Willis Lease Finance: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| How Does GATX Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Better Bet Than GATX Stock: Pay Less Than GATX To Get More From OKE, PR | |||
| GATX Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| GATX Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 31.1% in 2024 and 16.3% 3-yr compounded annual returns (above peer average) | |||
| GATX (GATX) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| GATX (GATX) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| PACCAR vs GATX: Which Stock Could Rally? | December 11th, 2025 | ||
| GATX vs Cummins: Which Is the Stronger Buy Today? | November 25th, 2025 | ||
| GATX vs PACCAR: Which Is the Stronger Buy Today? | November 22nd, 2025 | ||
| Is GATX a Better Buy Than Cummins? | November 7th, 2025 | ||
| GATX or Caterpillar: Which Stock Has More Upside? | October 30th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GATX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 06302021 | GATX | GATX | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 18.5% | 8.7% | -3.6% |
| 12312020 | GATX | GATX | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 7.8% | 27.9% | -1.1% |
| 04302020 | GATX | GATX | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 16.1% | 69.2% | -8.5% |
| 06302019 | GATX | GATX | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 7.6% | -21.6% | -31.9% |
| 12312017 | GATX | GATX | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 20.9% | 16.6% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 06302021 | GATX | GATX | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 18.5% | 8.7% | -3.6% |
| 12312020 | GATX | GATX | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 7.8% | 27.9% | -1.1% |
| 04302020 | GATX | GATX | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 16.1% | 69.2% | -8.5% |
| 06302019 | GATX | GATX | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 7.6% | -21.6% | -31.9% |
| 12312017 | GATX | GATX | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 20.9% | 16.6% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for GATX
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 98.14 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.2 |
| Rev LTM | 2,260 |
| Op Inc LTM | 444 |
| FCF LTM | -404 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -273 |
| CFO LTM | 330 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 315 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 25.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -35.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -23.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.2 |
| P/S | 1.9 |
| P/EBIT | 5.3 |
| P/E | 13.8 |
| P/CFO | 4.7 |
| Total Yield | 11.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -13.5% |
| D/E | 1.9 |
| Net D/E | 1.9 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 9.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -5.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 74.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -17.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -0.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rail North America | 6,994 | 6,446 | 6,142 | 5,944 | 5,647 |
| Rail International | 2,175 | 1,774 | 1,730 | 1,746 | 1,487 |
| Engine Leasing | 1,355 | 1,107 | 1,049 | 706 | |
| Other | 802 | 745 | 621 | 541 | 207 |
| Identifiable assets from discontinued operations | 291 | ||||
| Portfolio Management | 654 | ||||
| Total | 11,326 | 10,072 | 9,542 | 8,938 | 8,285 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/21/2025 | -5.8% | -8.6% | -11.7% |
| 7/29/2025 | 1.1% | -1.9% | 8.1% |
| 4/23/2025 | -4.4% | -2.2% | -1.8% |
| 1/23/2025 | 4.5% | 6.3% | 4.8% |
| 10/22/2024 | 6.7% | 6.2% | 16.3% |
| 7/23/2024 | -7.7% | -5.8% | -4.7% |
| 4/23/2024 | -3.0% | -3.1% | 8.4% |
| 1/23/2024 | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 18 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 3.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% |
| Median Negative | -3.4% | -3.1% | -6.4% |
| Max Positive | 9.4% | 9.6% | 18.2% |
| Max Negative | -7.7% | -10.0% | -11.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4252025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2162024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10282022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |