Tearsheet

Verra Mobility (VRRM)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $22.02 | Market Cap: $3.5 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Data Processing & Outsourced Services

Verra Mobility (VRRM)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $22.02
Market Cap: $3.5 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Data Processing & Outsourced Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -14%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 77x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.9%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 32%
  Key risks
VRRM key risks include [1] heavy customer concentration, Show more.
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Future of Freight, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more.
  
0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 32%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Future of Freight, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -14%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 77x
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.9%
7 Key risks
VRRM key risks include [1] heavy customer concentration, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

VRRM Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The requested time period is from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025. This period is entirely in the future from the current date. Therefore, there is no historical data available to explain a past stock movement for this specific timeframe. The search results provide stock forecasts and news for 2025, but do not indicate a definitive -11.4% stock movement for Verra Mobility (VRRM) within the specified future period, nor do they provide reasons for such a hypothetical past event.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
VRRM Return-4%15%-10%67%5%-10%56%
Peers Return19%7%-17%15%9%-17%12%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
VRRM Win Rate50%42%42%83%58%25% 
Peers Win Rate53%57%43%60%53%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
VRRM Max Drawdown-58%-6%-17%-1%-9%-18% 
Peers Max Drawdown-46%-16%-30%-13%-11%-30% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ROP, WEX, CNDT, TRMB, VRSK. See VRRM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventVRRMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-28.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven388 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-65.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven191.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven694 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-18.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven23.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven84 days120 days

Compare to XPO, GATX, BR, G, EXLS


In The Past

Verra Mobility's stock fell -28.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/16/2022. A -28.8% loss requires a 40.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Verra Mobility (VRRM)

Better Bets than Verra Mobility (VRRM)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to VRRM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.6%5.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-0.4%-0.4%-0.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.6%5.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-0.4%-0.4%-0.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Verra Mobility

Peers to compare with:

Financials

VRRMROPWEXCNDTTRMBVRSKMedian
NameVerra Mo.Roper Te.WEX Conduent Trimble Verisk A. 
Mkt Price22.01452.24150.031.9978.89219.17114.46
Mkt Cap3.548.75.20.318.830.612.0
Rev LTM9437,7212,6243,0723,6013,0303,051
Op Inc LTM2492,172655-855741,347614
FCF LTM1532,406643-1303151,116479
FCF 3Y Avg1631,995556-93453942504
CFO LTM2562,524798-713411,348570
CFO 3Y Avg2382,101707-74871,179597

Growth & Margins

VRRMROPWEXCNDTTRMBVRSKMedian
NameVerra Mo.Roper Te.WEX Conduent Trimble Verisk A. 
Rev Chg LTM8.5%14.0%-1.2%-12.5%-0.9%7.3%3.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg9.1%14.1%5.7%-7.7%-1.3%13.4%7.4%
Rev Chg Q16.1%14.3%3.9%-5.0%2.9%5.9%4.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.0%3.4%1.0%-1.3%0.7%1.4%1.2%
Op Mgn LTM26.4%28.1%25.0%-2.8%15.9%44.4%25.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg25.3%28.3%25.5%0.2%13.5%43.6%25.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.1%0.1%-0.7%-0.2%1.2%0.5%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM27.2%32.7%30.4%-2.3%9.5%44.5%28.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg27.6%30.4%27.3%-0.3%13.3%41.6%27.4%
FCF/Rev LTM16.2%31.2%24.5%-4.2%8.8%36.8%20.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg19.0%28.9%21.5%-2.8%12.4%33.2%20.2%

Valuation

VRRMROPWEXCNDTTRMBVRSKMedian
NameVerra Mo.Roper Te.WEX Conduent Trimble Verisk A. 
Mkt Cap3.548.75.20.318.830.612.0
P/S4.26.92.10.15.411.64.8
P/EBIT22.823.48.6-2.739.626.023.1
P/E77.134.219.1-3.054.438.136.1
P/CFO15.421.36.8-6.257.026.018.3
Total Yield1.3%3.6%5.2%-33.9%1.8%3.3%2.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.7%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.4%3.6%8.1%-16.8%3.0%2.6%3.3%
D/E0.30.20.92.00.10.10.2
Net D/E0.20.20.01.40.10.10.1

Returns

VRRMROPWEXCNDTTRMBVRSKMedian
NameVerra Mo.Roper Te.WEX Conduent Trimble Verisk A. 
1M Rtn-2.5%1.9%10.0%0.0%4.4%0.2%1.1%
3M Rtn-8.7%-11.1%-10.3%-28.9%-0.9%-12.0%-10.7%
6M Rtn-8.3%-18.4%7.8%-26.6%10.0%-28.2%-13.3%
12M Rtn-8.1%-15.2%-13.7%-53.9%8.2%-21.3%-14.4%
3Y Rtn57.8%8.5%-7.0%-47.2%58.3%27.6%18.0%
1M Excs Rtn-3.3%1.1%9.3%-0.7%3.7%-0.5%0.3%
3M Excs Rtn-12.0%-12.4%-12.2%-34.1%-4.7%-11.8%-12.1%
6M Excs Rtn-20.6%-30.8%-4.6%-39.0%-2.4%-40.5%-25.7%
12M Excs Rtn-18.6%-27.4%-25.9%-63.8%-3.9%-33.2%-26.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-14.2%-63.8%-77.9%-117.8%-34.2%-45.4%-54.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Commercial Services721    
Government Solutions524    
Parking Solutions404    
Corporate and Other141    
Total1,790    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,676,667
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520258.5%
Average Daily Volume1,424,565
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.58
Basic Shares Quantity159,552,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.3%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/2025-1.5%-4.4%-7.8%
8/6/2025-3.6%-1.4%-0.4%
2/27/2025-11.8%-18.2%-22.2%
10/31/2024-11.0%-10.4%-8.4%
8/8/2024-0.7%-1.0%-4.2%
2/29/20245.8%3.4%13.2%
11/9/20234.9%2.6%10.1%
8/9/2023-1.4%-5.6%-13.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive9117
# Negative121014
Median Positive4.3%3.4%10.1%
Median Negative-3.0%-6.2%-5.5%
Max Positive7.8%10.8%29.4%
Max Negative-15.6%-25.3%-52.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251029202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021422202210-K 12/31/2021