Paylocity (PCTY)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $150.82 | Market Cap: $8.4 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Human Resource & Employment Services
Paylocity (PCTY)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $150.82Market Cap: $8.4 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Human Resource & Employment Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -50%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -97% | Key risksPCTY key risks include [1] intense competition from established rivals in the crowded Human Capital Management software market and [2] a significant concentration on an economically sensitive small and medium-sized business client base. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, and Future of Work. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Human Capital Management Software, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, and Future of Work. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Human Capital Management Software, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -50%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -97% |
| Key risksPCTY key risks include [1] intense competition from established rivals in the crowded Human Capital Management software market and [2] a significant concentration on an economically sensitive small and medium-sized business client base. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PCTY Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock movement of Paylocity (PCTY) between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025, showed a decline. Several factors contributed to this performance, including a significant earnings per share (EPS) miss in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, cautious analyst sentiment despite some positive ratings, and broader market concerns affecting growth stocks.
1. Significant Earnings Per Share (EPS) Miss for Q1 Fiscal Year 2026. Paylocity reported its first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on November 4, 2025, with an EPS of $0.86, substantially missing the forecast of $1.57 by over 45%. This marked a significant decline in profitability and prompted a negative reaction from the analyst community, despite revenue surpassing expectations.
2. Varied and Cautious Analyst Price Target Adjustments. Several analysts lowered their price targets for Paylocity during this period. For example, Cantor Fitzgerald reduced its price target to $190 from $215, and Jefferies lowered its target to $180 from $225, citing sector concerns. While some analysts maintained "Buy" ratings, the overall adjustments reflected caution regarding the company's future performance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PCTY Return | 70% | 15% | -18% | -15% | 21% | -25% | 24% |
| Peers Return | 29% | 28% | -19% | 21% | 22% | -6% | 86% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PCTY Win Rate | 75% | 58% | 33% | 42% | 58% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 68% | 57% | 42% | 57% | 65% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PCTY Max Drawdown | -39% | -24% | -35% | -27% | -20% | -31% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -11% | -36% | -7% | -12% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADP, WDAY, ORCL, PAYX, DAY. See PCTY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PCTY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -53.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -50.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 102.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 89 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -36.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 60 days | 120 days |
Compare to GWRE, MANH, PEGA, LSPD, ELCG
In The Past
Paylocity's stock fell -53.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/1/2021. A -53.6% loss requires a 115.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PCTY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 08312023 | PCTY | Paylocity | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -15.9% | -19.5% | -34.2% |
| 02282023 | PCTY | Paylocity | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.0% | -12.3% | -26.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 08312023 | PCTY | Paylocity | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -15.9% | -19.5% | -34.2% |
| 02282023 | PCTY | Paylocity | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.0% | -12.3% | -26.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Paylocity
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 164.66 |
| Mkt Cap | 53.0 |
| Rev LTM | 7,401 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,538 |
| FCF LTM | 1,023 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,880 |
| CFO LTM | 2,337 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,078 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 22.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 27.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 53.0 |
| P/S | 6.4 |
| P/EBIT | 20.2 |
| P/E | 34.0 |
| P/CFO | 24.5 |
| Total Yield | 2.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -13.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -12.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 12.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -25.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -23.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -62.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | 4.4% | 6.9% | 5.2% |
| 8/5/2025 | 2.8% | -6.1% | -3.4% |
| 5/1/2025 | -3.5% | -0.3% | -1.9% |
| 2/6/2025 | -2.9% | 2.6% | -11.0% |
| 10/30/2024 | 3.6% | 20.0% | 16.5% |
| 8/1/2024 | 6.7% | 5.8% | 8.9% |
| 5/2/2024 | 12.1% | 9.5% | -7.6% |
| 2/8/2024 | -3.4% | 1.8% | -1.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 11 | 9 |
| # Negative | 16 | 13 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 8.4% | 6.9% | 5.2% |
| Median Negative | -3.4% | -6.1% | -6.5% |
| Max Positive | 12.7% | 20.0% | 24.1% |
| Max Negative | -15.5% | -14.9% | -21.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2072025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2092024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2032023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2042022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |