CNH Industrial (CNH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $9.52 | Market Cap: $11.9 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery
CNH Industrial (CNH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $9.52Market Cap: $11.9 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8%, Dividend Yield is 2.4%, FCF Yield is 15% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -107% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 185% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 3.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.0 Bil | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -18%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.5% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Hydrogen Economy. Themes include Autonomous Driving Technology, EV Manufacturing, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8%, Dividend Yield is 2.4%, FCF Yield is 15% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 3.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Hydrogen Economy. Themes include Autonomous Driving Technology, EV Manufacturing, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -107% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 185% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -18%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.5% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CNH Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the -17% stock movement for CNH Industrial (CNH) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. CNH Industrial reported significantly weaker-than-expected third-quarter 2025 financial results.
The company announced a substantial decline in net income, with diluted earnings per share falling to $0.06 in Q3 2025, compared to $0.24 in Q3 2024. Consolidated revenues were down 5% to $4.40 billion, and net sales of Industrial Activities decreased by 7% year-over-year. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.08 also missed analyst expectations of $0.13. This disappointing performance triggered a sharp sell-off, with shares tumbling more than 11% in premarket trading on November 7, 2025.
2. The company issued a lowered and narrowed full-year 2025 outlook.
Following the weak Q3 results, CNH Industrial updated its 2025 outlook, forecasting a decline in Agriculture segment net sales of between 11% and 13% year-over-year, and Construction segment net sales down between 3% and 5% year-over-year. The adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) outlook for 2025 was also reduced to a range of $0.44–$0.50, which was below prior guidance and analyst consensus estimates. This revised guidance indicated continued market headwinds and increased uncertainty for the company's near-term profitability.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CNH Return | 21% | 53% | -10% | -22% | -3% | -17% | 5% |
| Peers Return | 24% | 11% | 11% | 12% | -7% | -10% | 43% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CNH Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 50% | 25% | 42% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 43% | 43% | 35% | 33% | 49% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CNH Max Drawdown | -53% | -3% | -39% | -37% | -19% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -7% | -19% | -9% | -16% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DE, AGCO, GENC, WNC, AEBI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CNH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -50.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 100.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -54.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 120.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 256 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -45.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 805 days | 120 days |
Compare to DE, AGCO, GENC, WNC, AEBI
In The Past
CNH Industrial's stock fell -50.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -50.1% loss requires a 100.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| CNH Industrial Earnings Notes | |||
| CNH Industrial Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go? | Return | ||
| CNH Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| CNH Industrial (CNH) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| CNH Industrial Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 1.5% in 2024 and -8.2% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
| Now Is Not The Time To Buy CNH Industrial Stock | Buy or Fear | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | December 3rd, 2025 | ||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | November 27th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CNH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for CNH Industrial
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 12.61 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.8 |
| Rev LTM | 5,844 |
| Op Inc LTM | 514 |
| FCF LTM | 429 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 654 |
| CFO LTM | 586 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,050 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -20.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -3.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | -5.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.8 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/EBIT | 13.3 |
| P/E | 21.3 |
| P/CFO | 7.8 |
| Total Yield | 6.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -4.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -21.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | -14.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -15.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -19.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -36.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -83.8% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture | 18,148 | 17,969 | 14,721 | 10,923 | 10,959 |
| Construction | 3,932 | 3,572 | 3,081 | 2,170 | 2,768 |
| Financial Services | 2,573 | 1,996 | 1,672 | 1,823 | 2,011 |
| Eliminations and other | 34 | 14 | 22 | -1,934 | -2,215 |
| Commercial and Specialty Vehicles | 9,421 | 10,439 | |||
| Powertrain | 3,629 | 4,117 | |||
| Total | 24,687 | 23,551 | 19,496 | 26,032 | 28,079 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8042025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |