Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Advanced Air Mobility, and Drone Technology.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Advanced Air Mobility, and Drone Technology.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TDG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining TransDigm's stock movement for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Negative Market Reaction to Q3 2025 Earnings Miss

TransDigm reported its fiscal third-quarter 2025 earnings on August 5, 2025, missing analyst expectations on both revenue and earnings per share (EPS). The immediate market reaction was significantly negative, with shares dropping nearly 5.8% to 13.87% in pre-market trading, a sentiment that likely continued to impact the stock's performance into and beyond the specified period. 2. Disappointing Fiscal Year 2026 Guidance

Despite reporting robust financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 that surpassed analysts' EPS and revenue forecasts, TransDigm's full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance for fiscal 2026 reportedly fell below analysts' estimates. This led to an immediate stock decline of 3.4% after the Q4 earnings report on November 12, 2025.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TDG Return11%3%2%67%32%13%189%
Peers Return-1%32%10%5%1%19%81%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TDG Win Rate67%50%50%75%75%70% 
Peers Win Rate50%62%48%50%62%66% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TDG Max Drawdown-56%-16%-19%-1%-4%-3% 
Peers Max Drawdown-36%-7%-11%-16%-8%-10% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GD, NOC, LHX, TDY, TXT. See TDG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTDGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-25.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven33.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven221 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-62.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven167.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven440 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-18.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven21.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven59 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-51.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven107.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven412 days1480 days

Compare to GD, NOC, LHX, TDY, TXT


In The Past

TransDigm's stock fell -25.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/9/2021. A -25.0% loss requires a 33.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About TransDigm (TDG)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TDG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
TDG_6302022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper06302022TDGTransDigmMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
20.4%71.4%-2.3%
TDG_3312020_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE03312020TDGTransDigmDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
52.7%83.6%-15.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
TDG_6302022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper06302022TDGTransDigmMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
20.4%71.4%-2.3%
TDG_3312020_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE03312020TDGTransDigmDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
52.7%83.6%-15.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for TransDigm

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TDGGDNOCLHXTDYTXTMedian
NameTransDigmGeneral .Northrop.L3Harris.Teledyne.Textron  
Mkt Price-------
Mkt Cap-------
Rev LTM-------
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM-------
FCF 3Y Avg-------
CFO LTM-------
CFO 3Y Avg-------

Growth & Margins

TDGGDNOCLHXTDYTXTMedian
NameTransDigmGeneral .Northrop.L3Harris.Teledyne.Textron  
Rev Chg LTM-------
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-------
Rev Chg Q-------
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-------
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM-------
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-------
FCF/Rev LTM-------
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-------

Valuation

TDGGDNOCLHXTDYTXTMedian
NameTransDigmGeneral .Northrop.L3Harris.Teledyne.Textron  
Mkt Cap-------
P/S-------
P/EBIT-------
P/E-------
P/CFO-------
Total Yield-------
Dividend Yield-------
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-------
D/E-------
Net D/E-------

Returns

TDGGDNOCLHXTDYTXTMedian
NameTransDigmGeneral .Northrop.L3Harris.Teledyne.Textron  
1M Rtn-------
3M Rtn-------
6M Rtn-------
12M Rtn-------
3Y Rtn-------
1M Excs Rtn-------
3M Excs Rtn-------
6M Excs Rtn-------
12M Excs Rtn-------
3Y Excs Rtn-------

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,187,974
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120254.1%
Average Daily Volume337,757
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.52
Basic Shares Quantity58,100,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025805202510-Q 6/28/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/29/2025
12312024204202510-Q 12/28/2024
93020241107202410-K 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/29/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/30/2024
12312023208202410-Q 12/30/2023
93020231109202310-K 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 7/1/2023
3312023509202310-Q 4/1/2023
12312022207202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221110202210-K 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 7/2/2022
3312022510202210-Q 4/2/2022
12312021208202210-Q 1/1/2022
93020211116202110-K 9/30/2021