TransDigm (TDG)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $1263.0 | Market Cap: $73.5 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
TransDigm (TDG)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $1263.0Market Cap: $73.5 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 13% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -2.0% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.7x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 38x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 47% | Key risksTDG key risks include [1] its substantial debt levels from an aggressive financial leverage strategy, Show more. | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 2.0 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Advanced Air Mobility, and Drone Technology. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 13% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 47% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 2.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Advanced Air Mobility, and Drone Technology. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -2.0% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.7x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 38x |
| Key risksTDG key risks include [1] its substantial debt levels from an aggressive financial leverage strategy, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TDG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Special Cash Dividend and Associated Debt
TransDigm declared a significant special cash dividend of $90.00 per share in August 2025, which was funded by issuing $5.0 billion in new debt. This action likely resulted in a stock price adjustment on the ex-dividend date, and the increased leverage and associated higher interest expenses could have weighed on investor sentiment during the period.
2. RBC Capital Downgrade
On September 8, 2025, RBC Capital Markets downgraded TransDigm's stock rating from "Outperform" to "Sector Perform." The downgrade was accompanied by a reduction in its price target, with reasons cited including expectations for slower growth, reduced upside potential, and the normalization of aftermarket growth.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TDG Return | 11% | 3% | 2% | 67% | 32% | 7% | 173% |
| Peers Return | 12% | 8% | 3% | 21% | 29% | 40% | 174% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TDG Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 50% | 75% | 75% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 53% | 47% | 48% | 62% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TDG Max Drawdown | -56% | -16% | -19% | -1% | -4% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -49% | -10% | -17% | -11% | -4% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RTX, PH, HON, HEI, WWD. See TDG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TDG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 221 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -62.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 167.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 440 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -18.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 59 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -51.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 107.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 412 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to GD, NOC, LHX, TDY, TXT
In The Past
TransDigm's stock fell -25.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/9/2021. A -25.0% loss requires a 33.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TDG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.6% | 5.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| 06302022 | TDG | TransDigm | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 20.4% | 71.4% | -2.3% |
| 03312020 | TDG | TransDigm | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 52.7% | 83.6% | -15.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.6% | 5.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| 06302022 | TDG | TransDigm | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 20.4% | 71.4% | -2.3% |
| 03312020 | TDG | TransDigm | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 52.7% | 83.6% | -15.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for TransDigm
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 297.37 |
| Mkt Cap | 93.0 |
| Rev LTM | 14,430 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,162 |
| FCF LTM | 2,600 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,363 |
| CFO LTM | 2,926 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,654 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 93.0 |
| P/S | 4.5 |
| P/EBIT | 21.1 |
| P/E | 34.2 |
| P/CFO | 30.2 |
| Total Yield | 4.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 9.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 24.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 123.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -2.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 13.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 48.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/12/2025 | 1.1% | 4.4% | 0.1% |
| 8/5/2025 | -11.9% | -12.4% | -15.1% |
| 5/6/2025 | -5.5% | -3.8% | -1.6% |
| 2/4/2025 | -3.3% | -1.3% | 1.6% |
| 11/7/2024 | -3.8% | -1.4% | -7.5% |
| 8/6/2024 | 2.3% | 2.0% | 11.7% |
| 5/7/2024 | 0.7% | -1.6% | 4.7% |
| 2/8/2024 | -1.6% | 0.0% | 1.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 15 |
| # Negative | 13 | 12 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.9% | 4.5% | 6.1% |
| Median Negative | -1.7% | -2.7% | -6.9% |
| Max Positive | 9.8% | 11.1% | 37.2% |
| Max Negative | -11.9% | -12.4% | -15.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11122025 | 10-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2042025 | 10-Q 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2082024 | 10-Q 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2072023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 10-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2082022 | 10-Q 1/1/2022 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |