TransDigm (TDG)
Market Price (12/22/2025): $1284.49 | Market Cap: $74.8 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
TransDigm (TDG)
Market Price (12/22/2025): $1284.49Market Cap: $74.8 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, Dividend Yield is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.4x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 36x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 47% | Key risksTDG key risks include [1] its substantial debt levels from an aggressive financial leverage strategy, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 2.0 Bil | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Advanced Air Mobility, and Drone Technology. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, Dividend Yield is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 47% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 2.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Advanced Air Mobility, and Drone Technology. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.4x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 36x |
| Key risksTDG key risks include [1] its substantial debt levels from an aggressive financial leverage strategy, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TDG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining TransDigm's (TDG) stock movement of -8.7% during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 22, 2025:
1. TransDigm's Q3 2025 Earnings Miss and Lowered Outlook. Although reported slightly before the period on August 5, 2025, TransDigm's third-quarter fiscal year 2025 results missed analyst expectations for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue, leading to a sharp stock decline. The company's EPS came in at $9.60 versus a forecast of $9.86, and revenue was $2.24 billion against an expected $2.29 billion. This miss was significantly influenced by weaker-than-anticipated performance in the commercial original equipment manufacturer (OEM) segment, which the company attributed to lower build rates and inventory destocking. This led to a revised, lower full-year sales guidance for fiscal 2025, contributing to sustained negative investor sentiment within the specified period.
2. Substantial Increase in Long-Term Debt for Special Dividend and Operations. On August 20, 2025, within the specified timeframe, TransDigm's board approved a special cash dividend of $90 per share, totaling approximately $5.2 billion. This payout was funded by a combination of new debt and existing cash and was completed by September 12, 2025. Furthermore, in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, TransDigm issued an additional $5.0 billion in new debt, pushing its total long-term debt as of September 30, 2025, to $29.17 billion, up from $24.30 billion a year prior. This significant increase in financial leverage likely raised investor concerns about the company's balance sheet and future obligations.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TDG Return | 11% | 3% | 2% | 67% | 32% | 6% | 171% |
| Peers Return | 12% | 8% | 3% | 21% | 29% | 39% | 172% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TDG Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 50% | 75% | 75% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 53% | 47% | 48% | 62% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TDG Max Drawdown | -56% | -16% | -19% | -1% | -4% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -49% | -10% | -17% | -11% | -4% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RTX, PH, HON, HEI, WWD. See TDG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TDG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 221 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -62.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 167.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 440 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -18.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 59 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -51.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 107.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 412 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to GD, NOC, LHX, TDY, TXT
In The Past
TransDigm's stock fell -25.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/9/2021. A -25.0% loss requires a 33.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TDG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.0% | 18.0% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.6% | 2.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 3.6% | 3.6% | -0.4% |
| 06302022 | TDG | TransDigm | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 20.4% | 71.4% | -2.3% |
| 03312020 | TDG | TransDigm | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 52.7% | 83.6% | -15.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.0% | 18.0% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.6% | 2.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 3.6% | 3.6% | -0.4% |
| 06302022 | TDG | TransDigm | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 20.4% | 71.4% | -2.3% |
| 03312020 | TDG | TransDigm | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 52.7% | 83.6% | -15.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for TransDigm
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 316.32 |
| Mkt Cap | 92.5 |
| Rev LTM | 14,430 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,162 |
| FCF LTM | 2,600 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,363 |
| CFO LTM | 2,926 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,654 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 92.5 |
| P/S | 5.3 |
| P/EBIT | 23.6 |
| P/E | 36.5 |
| P/CFO | 33.6 |
| Total Yield | 4.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 14.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 36.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 127.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 6.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 0.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 16.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 52.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/12/2025 | 1.1% | 4.4% | 0.1% |
| 8/5/2025 | -11.9% | -12.4% | -15.1% |
| 5/6/2025 | -5.5% | -3.8% | -1.6% |
| 2/4/2025 | -3.3% | -1.3% | 1.6% |
| 11/7/2024 | -3.8% | -1.4% | -7.5% |
| 8/6/2024 | 2.3% | 2.0% | 11.7% |
| 5/7/2024 | 0.7% | -1.6% | 4.7% |
| 2/8/2024 | -1.6% | 0.0% | 1.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 15 |
| # Negative | 13 | 12 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.9% | 4.5% | 6.1% |
| Median Negative | -1.7% | -2.7% | -6.9% |
| Max Positive | 9.8% | 11.1% | 37.2% |
| Max Negative | -11.9% | -12.4% | -15.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11122025 | 10-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2042025 | 10-Q 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2082024 | 10-Q 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2072023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 10-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2082022 | 10-Q 1/1/2022 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |