Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 13%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -2.0%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.7x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 38x
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 47%
  Key risks
TDG key risks include [1] its substantial debt levels from an aggressive financial leverage strategy, Show more.
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 2.0 Bil
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Advanced Air Mobility, and Drone Technology.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 13%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 47%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 2.0 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Advanced Air Mobility, and Drone Technology.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -2.0%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.7x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 38x
7 Key risks
TDG key risks include [1] its substantial debt levels from an aggressive financial leverage strategy, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TDG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Special Cash Dividend and Associated Debt

TransDigm declared a significant special cash dividend of $90.00 per share in August 2025, which was funded by issuing $5.0 billion in new debt. This action likely resulted in a stock price adjustment on the ex-dividend date, and the increased leverage and associated higher interest expenses could have weighed on investor sentiment during the period. 2. RBC Capital Downgrade

On September 8, 2025, RBC Capital Markets downgraded TransDigm's stock rating from "Outperform" to "Sector Perform." The downgrade was accompanied by a reduction in its price target, with reasons cited including expectations for slower growth, reduced upside potential, and the normalization of aftermarket growth.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TDG Return11%3%2%67%32%7%173%
Peers Return12%8%3%21%29%40%174%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TDG Win Rate67%50%50%75%75%67% 
Peers Win Rate53%53%47%48%62%62% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TDG Max Drawdown-56%-16%-19%-1%-4%-3% 
Peers Max Drawdown-49%-10%-17%-11%-4%-10% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RTX, PH, HON, HEI, WWD. See TDG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTDGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-25.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven33.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven221 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-62.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven167.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven440 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-18.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven21.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven59 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-51.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven107.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven412 days1,480 days

Compare to GD, NOC, LHX, TDY, TXT


In The Past

TransDigm's stock fell -25.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/9/2021. A -25.0% loss requires a 33.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About TransDigm (TDG)

Better Bets than TransDigm (TDG)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TDG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.6%5.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-0.4%-0.4%-0.4%
TDG_6302022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper06302022TDGTransDigmMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
20.4%71.4%-2.3%
TDG_3312020_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE03312020TDGTransDigmDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
52.7%83.6%-15.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.6%5.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-0.4%-0.4%-0.4%
TDG_6302022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper06302022TDGTransDigmMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
20.4%71.4%-2.3%
TDG_3312020_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE03312020TDGTransDigmDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
52.7%83.6%-15.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for TransDigm

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TDGRTXPHHONHEIWWDMedian
NameTransDigmRTX Parker H.Honeywel.Heico Woodward  
Mkt Price1,261.64177.20863.19199.89306.89287.85297.37
Mkt Cap76.7238.0109.2127.042.715.193.0
Rev LTM8,83085,98820,03040,6704,2893,56714,430
Op Inc LTM4,1888,8154,1377,6929594794,162
FCF LTM1,8164,7263,3856,1647823402,600
FCF 3Y Avg1,6445,5473,0815,2125813052,363
CFO LTM2,0387,9633,8147,4858454712,926
CFO 3Y Avg1,8198,6913,4886,3366354062,654

Growth & Margins

TDGRTXPHHONHEIWWDMedian
NameTransDigmRTX Parker H.Honeywel.Heico Woodward  
Rev Chg LTM11.2%8.8%0.2%7.5%13.5%7.3%8.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg17.7%9.4%7.4%5.2%27.3%14.6%12.0%
Rev Chg Q11.5%11.9%3.7%7.0%15.7%16.5%11.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.9%2.9%0.9%1.7%3.8%4.1%2.9%
Op Mgn LTM47.4%10.3%20.7%18.9%22.3%13.4%19.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg45.6%7.7%19.1%19.5%21.8%11.9%19.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.1%0.3%0.2%-0.9%0.3%1.1%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM23.1%9.3%19.0%18.4%19.7%13.2%18.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg23.2%11.3%17.5%16.4%17.6%12.3%17.0%
FCF/Rev LTM20.6%5.5%16.9%15.2%18.2%9.5%16.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg21.0%7.2%15.5%13.5%16.1%9.3%14.5%

Valuation

TDGRTXPHHONHEIWWDMedian
NameTransDigmRTX Parker H.Honeywel.Heico Woodward  
Mkt Cap76.7238.0109.2127.042.715.193.0
P/S8.72.64.83.310.64.24.5
P/EBIT-21.620.515.247.4-21.1
P/E37.034.126.321.871.134.334.2
P/CFO37.628.225.117.954.032.130.2
Total Yield15.3%4.5%4.7%6.8%1.5%3.3%4.6%
Dividend Yield12.6%1.5%0.9%2.2%0.1%0.4%1.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.7%4.3%4.0%1.7%-3.8%
D/E-0.20.10.30.1-0.1
Net D/E-0.20.10.20.0-0.1

Returns

TDGRTXPHHONHEIWWDMedian
NameTransDigmRTX Parker H.Honeywel.Heico Woodward  
1M Rtn-5.5%1.3%5.1%1.9%-1.3%10.8%1.6%
3M Rtn-1.1%12.4%17.1%0.7%-3.2%21.3%6.6%
6M Rtn-4.7%22.5%32.9%-3.4%-1.3%20.7%9.7%
12M Rtn5.8%53.7%30.9%-7.1%18.2%67.6%24.5%
3Y Rtn143.7%92.8%213.2%7.8%102.7%220.5%123.2%
1M Excs Rtn-6.3%0.6%4.4%1.2%-2.0%10.0%0.9%
3M Excs Rtn-3.3%11.1%13.1%0.1%-6.0%18.7%5.6%
6M Excs Rtn-17.1%10.1%20.6%-15.8%-13.7%8.3%-2.7%
12M Excs Rtn-4.0%42.2%18.7%-15.9%8.5%54.1%13.6%
3Y Excs Rtn70.4%22.0%134.1%-63.0%27.4%138.6%48.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Airframe10,0458,9727,7817,4726,575
Power & Control9,1807,3156,9946,9807,005
Corporate6,1683,4493,0944,6344,564
Non-aviation193234238229251
Total25,58619,97018,10719,31518,395


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,292,031
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520258.8%
Average Daily Volume304,229
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.25
Basic Shares Quantity58,200,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.2%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/12/20251.1%4.4%0.1%
8/5/2025-11.9%-12.4%-15.1%
5/6/2025-5.5%-3.8%-1.6%
2/4/2025-3.3%-1.3%1.6%
11/7/2024-3.8%-1.4%-7.5%
8/6/20242.3%2.0%11.7%
5/7/20240.7%-1.6%4.7%
2/8/2024-1.6%0.0%1.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111215
# Negative13129
Median Positive2.9%4.5%6.1%
Median Negative-1.7%-2.7%-6.9%
Max Positive9.8%11.1%37.2%
Max Negative-11.9%-12.4%-15.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251112202510-K 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/28/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/29/2025
12312024204202510-Q 12/28/2024
93020241107202410-K 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/29/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/30/2024
12312023208202410-Q 12/30/2023
93020231109202310-K 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 7/1/2023
3312023509202310-Q 4/1/2023
12312022207202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221110202210-K 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 7/2/2022
3312022510202210-Q 4/2/2022
12312021208202210-Q 1/1/2022