TransDigm (TDG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $1362.63 | Market Cap: $79.2 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
TransDigm (TDG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $1362.63Market Cap: $79.2 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Advanced Air Mobility, and Drone Technology. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Advanced Air Mobility, and Drone Technology. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TDG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining TransDigm's stock movement for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Negative Market Reaction to Q3 2025 Earnings Miss
TransDigm reported its fiscal third-quarter 2025 earnings on August 5, 2025, missing analyst expectations on both revenue and earnings per share (EPS). The immediate market reaction was significantly negative, with shares dropping nearly 5.8% to 13.87% in pre-market trading, a sentiment that likely continued to impact the stock's performance into and beyond the specified period.
2. Disappointing Fiscal Year 2026 Guidance
Despite reporting robust financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 that surpassed analysts' EPS and revenue forecasts, TransDigm's full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance for fiscal 2026 reportedly fell below analysts' estimates. This led to an immediate stock decline of 3.4% after the Q4 earnings report on November 12, 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TDG Return | 11% | 3% | 2% | 67% | 32% | 13% | 189% |
| Peers Return | -1% | 32% | 10% | 5% | 1% | 19% | 81% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TDG Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 50% | 75% | 75% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 62% | 48% | 50% | 62% | 66% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TDG Max Drawdown | -56% | -16% | -19% | -1% | -4% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -36% | -7% | -11% | -16% | -8% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GD, NOC, LHX, TDY, TXT. See TDG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TDG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 221 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -62.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 167.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 440 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -18.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 59 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -51.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 107.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 412 days | 1480 days |
Compare to GD, NOC, LHX, TDY, TXT
In The Past
TransDigm's stock fell -25.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/9/2021. A -25.0% loss requires a 33.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TDG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 06302022 | TDG | TransDigm | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 20.4% | 71.4% | -2.3% |
| 03312020 | TDG | TransDigm | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 52.7% | 83.6% | -15.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 06302022 | TDG | TransDigm | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 20.4% | 71.4% | -2.3% |
| 03312020 | TDG | TransDigm | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 52.7% | 83.6% | -15.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for TransDigm
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Valuation
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2042025 | 10-Q 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2082024 | 10-Q 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2072023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 10-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2082022 | 10-Q 1/1/2022 |
| 9302021 | 11162021 | 10-K 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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