Verisk Analytics (VRSK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $223.56 | Market Cap: $31.2 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Research & Consulting Services
Verisk Analytics (VRSK)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $223.56Market Cap: $31.2 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Research & Consulting Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, Cloud Computing, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, Cloud Computing, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
VRSK Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Verisk Analytics (VRSK) experienced a notable decline in its stock price between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025. Several factors contributed to this negative movement.
1. Missed Q3 2025 Revenue and EBITDA Estimates, and Lowered Full-Year Guidance: Verisk Analytics reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 29, 2025. While the company beat adjusted earnings per share (EPS) estimates, it missed Wall Street's revenue expectations, reporting $768.3 million against an estimated $776.8 million. This revenue shortfall, though slight, contributed to investor concerns. Additionally, the company lowered its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to a midpoint of $3.07 billion from a previous forecast of $3.11 billion. The adjusted EBITDA guidance for the full year was also decreased to a range of $1.69-$1.72 billion from the prior quarter's view of $1.70-$1.74 billion, falling below analyst estimates.
2. Impact of Unusually Mild Weather on Claims Volumes: During its Q3 2025 earnings call, Verisk's CEO, Lee Shavel, noted that the company experienced an "exceptionally low level of severe weather," which led to a decline in claims assignments across its Xactware system. This temporary factor negatively impacted organic constant currency (OCC) revenue growth by approximately 1% and contributed to an 8.8% decline in transactional revenues on an OCC basis. This softer demand stemming from mild weather was cited as a reason for the lowered full-year revenue outlook.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VRSK Return | 40% | 11% | -22% | 36% | 16% | -18% | 56% |
| Peers Return | 27% | 89994% | -22% | 21% | 427% | -47% | 305447% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VRSK Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 33% | 67% | 58% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 40% | 28% | 53% | 40% | 28% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VRSK Max Drawdown | -19% | -22% | -31% | -3% | -9% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -14% | -38% | -23% | -12% | -59% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FICO, EFX, RPD, ACCL, BRKK. See VRSK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VRSK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 401 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -29.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 67 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -17.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 53 days | 120 days |
Compare to FICO, EFX, RPD, ACCL, BRKK
In The Past
Verisk Analytics's stock fell -31.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -31.2% loss requires a 45.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to VRSK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -3.2% | -3.2% | -10.5% |
| 09302022 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 12.9% | 39.4% | -3.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -3.2% | -3.2% | -10.5% |
| 09302022 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 12.9% | 39.4% | -3.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Verisk Analytics
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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