Wabash National (WNC)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $9.79 | Market Cap: $0.4 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery
Wabash National (WNC)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $9.79Market Cap: $0.4 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 67757%, Dividend Yield is 3468%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 67753%, FCF Yield is 26842% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -105%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -130% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 85153% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -9.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -18% | |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -100% | Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 3912% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, Advanced Materials, and E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. | Key risksWNC key risks include [1] a significant product liability lawsuit with a nine-figure damages award under appeal and [2] weaker freight demand that has forced reduced revenue guidance for 2024 and 2025. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 67757%, Dividend Yield is 3468%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 67753%, FCF Yield is 26842% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -100% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, Advanced Materials, and E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -105%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -130% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 85153% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -9.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -18% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 3912% |
| Key risksWNC key risks include [1] a significant product liability lawsuit with a nine-figure damages award under appeal and [2] weaker freight demand that has forced reduced revenue guidance for 2024 and 2025. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
WNC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Wabash National (WNC) stock moved by -11.1% between August 31, 2025, and December 17, 2025:
1. Wabash National reported weaker-than-expected Q3 2025 earnings and revenue.
The company announced its Q3 2025 results on October 30, 2025, reporting an adjusted EPS of -$0.51, significantly missing the consensus estimate of -$0.21. Quarterly revenue also fell short, coming in at $381.6 million compared to analyst estimates of $390.62 million, representing a 17.8% year-over-year decrease.
2. The company lowered its full-year 2025 financial outlook due to deepening soft demand.
Following the Q3 results, Wabash National reduced its full-year 2025 revenue outlook to $1.5 billion and adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $(1.95) to $(2.05). Management indicated that the fourth quarter of 2025 was expected to be the "weakest of the year" in terms of revenue and operating margins, citing a deepening soft demand environment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WNC Return | 20% | 16% | 18% | 15% | -32% | -41% | -24% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WNC Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 42% | 50% | 25% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WNC Max Drawdown | -56% | -20% | -35% | -8% | -33% | -59% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DE, AGCO, TWI, GENC, AEBI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WNC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -42.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 206 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -56.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 130.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 203 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -53.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 113.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1501 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -96.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 3107.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2738 days | 1480 days |
Compare to DE, AGCO, TWI, GENC, AEBI
In The Past
Wabash National's stock fell -42.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2022. A -42.2% loss requires a 73.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to WNC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Wabash National
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 13.33 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.7 |
| Rev LTM | 1,720 |
| Op Inc LTM | 215 |
| FCF LTM | 62 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 118 |
| CFO LTM | 90 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 186 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -20.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -3.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | -6.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.7 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/EBIT | 21.2 |
| P/E | 17.5 |
| P/CFO | 17.3 |
| Total Yield | 5.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
| D/E | 1.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -6.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 7.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -9.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -20.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -4.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -84.5% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transportation Solutions | 2,339 | 2,321 | 1,629 | 1,309 | |
| Parts & Services | 221 | 193 | 175 | 173 | |
| Corporate and Eliminations | -23 | -12 | |||
| Commercial Trailer Products | 1,520 | ||||
| Diversified Products | 358 | ||||
| Final Mile Products | 442 | ||||
| Total | 2,536 | 2,502 | 1,803 | 1,482 | 2,319 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transportation Solutions | 367 | 210 | 62 | -30 | |
| Parts & Services | 45 | 31 | 20 | -13 | |
| Corporate and Eliminations | -100 | -74 | -49 | -43 | -43 |
| Commercial Trailer Products | 146 | ||||
| Diversified Products | 30 | ||||
| Final Mile Products | 10 | ||||
| Total | 312 | 167 | 34 | -86 | 143 |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2025 | -2.6% | -5.4% | 6.0% |
| 7/25/2025 | -6.5% | -6.6% | 5.8% |
| 4/30/2025 | -30.6% | -18.4% | -13.5% |
| 1/29/2025 | 4.3% | -3.6% | -25.4% |
| 10/24/2024 | -0.9% | 4.6% | 10.8% |
| 7/24/2024 | -9.5% | -5.1% | -15.4% |
| 4/24/2024 | -5.2% | -10.3% | -13.8% |
| 2/1/2024 | 5.6% | 2.4% | 6.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 15 | 17 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.7% | -5.2% | -14.2% |
| Max Positive | 12.2% | 31.3% | 52.5% |
| Max Negative | -30.6% | -18.4% | -34.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7252025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7242024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4242024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10252023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7262023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4272022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |