LiveWire (LVWR)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $4.82 | Market Cap: $982.2 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automobile Manufacturers
LiveWire (LVWR)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $4.82Market Cap: $982.2 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automobile Manufacturers
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include EV Manufacturing. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -96%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -83 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -331% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 39x | ||
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -20% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -269%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -286% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 131% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 208% | ||
| Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 30.92 | ||
| Key risksLVWR key risks include [1] a high rate of cash burn and persistent operating losses that challenge its financial sustainability, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include EV Manufacturing. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -96%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -83 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -331% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 39x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -20% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -269%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -286% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 131% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 208% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 30.92 |
| Key risksLVWR key risks include [1] a high rate of cash burn and persistent operating losses that challenge its financial sustainability, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LVWR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points highlighting why LiveWire (LVWR) stock likely moved by approximately 24.2% in the period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Negative Reaction to Q3 2025 Earnings Report and Wider Operating Loss Guidance.
On November 4, 2025, LiveWire reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results. Following the announcement, the stock price dropped by 6.21% in pre-market trading. While consolidated revenue saw a 28% increase year-over-year, the company also updated its full-year 2025 operating loss guidance to a wider range of $72 million to $77 million, an increase from its previous estimate of $59 million to $69 million. This revised outlook, suggesting larger anticipated losses, contributed to negative investor sentiment.
2. Continued Financial Losses and High Valuation.
Despite operational improvements, LiveWire reported a consolidated net loss of $19.4 million for the third quarter of 2025. The company's valuation, as indicated by a price-to-sales ratio of 40.4x in mid-November 2025, was considered extreme compared to its peers and the broader US auto industry. This suggested that the market was factoring in significant growth that had not yet materialized, leading to a "turnaround is still not on firm ground" assessment and contributing to downward pressure on the stock.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LVWR Return | � | � | � | 133% | -57% | 1% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | -45% | 15% | -13% | -2% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LVWR Win Rate | � | � | 33% | 75% | 17% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 42% | 35% | 47% | 43% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LVWR Max Drawdown | � | � | � | 0% | -60% | -79% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -54% | -29% | -43% | -40% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HOG, PII, TSLA, RIVN, LCID.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LVWR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -56.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 129.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 163 days | 464 days |
Compare to F, EMPD, SBLX, TSLA, GM
In The Past
LiveWire's stock fell -56.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/4/2022. A -56.4% loss requires a 129.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| LiveWire Earnings Notes | |||
| LiveWire Stock Jump Looks Great, But How Secure Is That Gain? | Return | ||
| LiveWire Stock Shares Rally 11% In A Week, Why You Shouldn Not Be Buying The Stock | Buy or Fear | ||
| LiveWire (LVWR) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| LiveWire (LVWR) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| LiveWire (LVWR) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| LiveWire (LVWR) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| LiveWire (LVWR) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| LiveWire (LVWR) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| LiveWire (LVWR) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Market Movers | Winners: LVWR, IOVA, AVXL | Losers: SSII, GHRS, KSS | July 24th, 2025 | ||
| LVWR Stock Down -21% after 6-Day Loss Streak | July 17th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LVWR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for LiveWire
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 19.41 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.7 |
| Rev LTM | 5,250 |
| Op Inc LTM | 25 |
| FCF LTM | 160 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 151 |
| CFO LTM | 659 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 317 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -5.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 22.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -28.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -53.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 9.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -29.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -0.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -45.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.7 |
| P/S | 5.0 |
| P/EBIT | -4.4 |
| P/E | -4.1 |
| P/CFO | 5.2 |
| Total Yield | -4.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -3.6% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 10.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -7.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -23.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 10.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -2.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -2.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -15.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -98.2% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | -7.0% | -12.6% | -13.0% |
| 7/30/2025 | 0.3% | -14.9% | -1.3% |
| 5/1/2025 | -14.0% | -40.8% | 151.4% |
| 2/5/2025 | -0.7% | -24.8% | -36.8% |
| 10/24/2024 | -5.3% | -3.6% | 4.2% |
| 7/25/2024 | 2.5% | -2.5% | -15.2% |
| 4/25/2024 | 0.7% | -4.0% | -6.5% |
| 2/8/2024 | 1.2% | 1.7% | -23.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 4 | 5 |
| # Negative | 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 2.0% | 12.3% | 20.8% |
| Median Negative | -7.0% | -8.7% | -13.0% |
| Max Positive | 10.3% | 39.4% | 151.4% |
| Max Negative | -14.0% | -40.8% | -36.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11102025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3062023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11302022 | S-1/A 9/25/2022 |
| 6302022 | 10252022 | S-1 6/30/2022 |
| 12312021 | 6102022 | S-4/A 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |