LiveWire (LVWR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.46 | Market Cap: $908.0 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automobile Manufacturers
LiveWire (LVWR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.46Market Cap: $908.0 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automobile Manufacturers
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include EV Manufacturing. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -110%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -99% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -91 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -381% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 39x | ||
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -31%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -17%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.9% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -325%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -346% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 208% | ||
| Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 25.78 |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include EV Manufacturing. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -110%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -99% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -91 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -381% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 39x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -31%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -17%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.9% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -325%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -346% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -13% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 208% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 25.78 |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LVWR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The LiveWire (LVWR) stock experienced significant movements during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, influenced by a mix of financial results, strategic promotions, and analyst sentiment.
1. Reports of Q3 2025 Financial Results and Revised Guidance. LiveWire Group reported its third-quarter 2025 results on November 4, 2025, with consolidated revenue up 28% year-over-year to $5.7 million, but an operating loss of $18.8 million. The company also updated its full-year operating loss guidance to a wider range of $72 million–$77 million. This revision, despite some operational improvements, indicated continued financial pressures and a challenging path to profitability.
2. Q2 2025 Financial Performance. LiveWire released its second-quarter 2025 results on July 30, 2025, showing a 35% reduction in consolidated operating loss to $18.3 million compared to Q2 2024. While the STACYC division performed strongly with a 25% revenue increase, the Electric Motorcycles segment faced challenges, with a 65% decrease in revenue. The stock declined by 7.56% since this release.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LVWR Return | - | - | - | 133% | -57% | -12% | -13% |
| Peers Return | 151% | 46% | -30% | 25% | 20% | 17% | 350% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LVWR Win Rate | - | - | 33% | 75% | 17% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 35% | 42% | 18% | 32% | 35% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LVWR Max Drawdown | - | - | - | 0% | -60% | -79% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -5% | -32% | -8% | -13% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: F, EMPD, SBLX, TSLA, GM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LVWR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -56.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 129.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 163 days | 464 days |
Compare to F, EMPD, SBLX, TSLA, GM
In The Past
LiveWire's stock fell -56.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/4/2022. A -56.4% loss requires a 129.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Is LiveWire Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | Return | ||
| LiveWire Stock Drops 23% In A Month, Why You Shouldn Not Be Buying The Stock | Buy or Fear | ||
| LiveWire (LVWR) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| LiveWire (LVWR) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| LiveWire (LVWR) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| LiveWire (LVWR) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| LiveWire (LVWR) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| LiveWire (LVWR) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| LiveWire (LVWR) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Why LiveWire Stock Moved: LVWR Stock Has Lost 63% Since 2023 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Unfavorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S) | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Market Movers | Winners: LVWR, IOVA, AVXL | Losers: SSII, GHRS, KSS | July 24th, 2025 | ||
| LVWR Stock Down -21% after 6-Day Loss Streak | July 17th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LVWR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for LiveWire
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 9.03 |
| Mkt Cap | 61.3 |
| Rev LTM | 47,828 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,801 |
| FCF LTM | -14 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -22 |
| CFO LTM | 7,867 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 7,055 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | -4.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -189.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -164.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -156.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -133.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -173.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -154.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 61.3 |
| P/S | 7.7 |
| P/EBIT | 8.8 |
| P/E | 14.5 |
| P/CFO | 2.4 |
| Total Yield | 3.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -2.7% |
| D/E | 1.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.9 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -8.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 20.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 32.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 28.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 56.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -8.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 13.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 18.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 14.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -14.5% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3062023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11302022 | S-1/A 9/25/2022 |
| 6302022 | 10252022 | S-1 6/30/2022 |
| 12312021 | 6102022 | S-4/A 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |