LiveWire (LVWR)
Market Price (5/4/2026): $1.785 | Market Cap: $364.3 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automobile Manufacturers
LiveWire (LVWR)
Market Price (5/4/2026): $1.785Market Cap: $364.3 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automobile Manufacturers
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -63% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include EV Manufacturing. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -116%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -154% Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 13.82 | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -75 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -294% Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 14x Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -17% Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -209%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -223% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -25% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 220% Key risksLVWR key risks include [1] a high rate of cash burn and persistent operating losses that challenge its financial sustainability, Show more. |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -63% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include EV Manufacturing. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -116%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -154% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 13.82 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -75 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -294% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 14x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -17% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -209%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -223% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -25% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 220% |
| Key risksLVWR key risks include [1] a high rate of cash burn and persistent operating losses that challenge its financial sustainability, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Continued Operating Losses and Negative Outlook: LiveWire reported a consolidated net loss of $17.6 million for the fourth quarter of 2025, which was disclosed on February 10, 2026. Furthermore, the company provided guidance forecasting an operating loss of $70 million to $80 million for the full year 2026, signaling ongoing unprofitability and a challenging financial outlook for the current year.
2. Revenue Decline in Electric Motorcycles Despite Unit Growth: The Electric Motorcycles segment experienced a revenue decline to $6.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, despite a 7% increase in unit sales for the full year 2025. This was primarily attributed to increased incentives implemented to drive demand, which negatively impacted pricing and gross profit, highlighting challenges in achieving profitable growth.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -23.9% change in LVWR stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -25.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.34 | 1.78 | -23.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 25 | 26 | 2.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 19.0 | 14.2 | -25.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 204 | 204 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -23.9% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LVWR | -23.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 22.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.9% | 22.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -67.5% change in LVWR stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -69.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.48 | 1.78 | -67.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 24 | 26 | 7.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 46.8 | 14.2 | -69.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 204 | 204 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -67.5% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LVWR | -67.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 25.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.7% | 25.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -0.6% change in LVWR stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -3.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.79 | 1.78 | -0.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 27 | 26 | -3.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 13.7 | 14.2 | 3.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 203 | 204 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -0.6% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LVWR | -0.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 24.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 21.2% | 23.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -77.0% change in LVWR stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -58.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.75 | 1.78 | -77.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 47 | 26 | -45.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 33.9 | 14.2 | -58.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 205 | 204 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -77.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LVWR | -77.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 23.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 64.4% | 24.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LVWR Return | - | -41% | 133% | -57% | -8% | -59% | -78% |
| Peers Return | 71% | -45% | 15% | -13% | -4% | -10% | -17% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 5% | 92% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LVWR Win Rate | - | 25% | 75% | 17% | 50% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 35% | 47% | 43% | 47% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LVWR Max Drawdown | - | -49% | 0% | -60% | -79% | -72% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -9% | -54% | -29% | -43% | -41% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: HOG, PII, TSLA, RIVN, LCID.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/1/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LVWR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -58.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 138.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 18 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -39.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.8% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 83 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -15.6% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 23 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -15.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 218 days | 427 days |
In The Past
LiveWire's stock fell -58.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 138.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | LVWR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -58.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 138.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 18 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -39.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.8% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 83 days | 24 days |
In The Past
LiveWire's stock fell -58.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 138.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About LiveWire (LVWR)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- LiveWire ONE: A premium electric motorcycle designed for high performance and connectivity.
- S2 Del Mar: A mid-power electric motorcycle, part of their S2 Arrow platform, offering a lighter and more agile riding experience.
- Future Electric Motorcycles: Development and production of new electric motorcycle models and technologies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
LiveWire (LVWR) primarily sells its electric motorcycles to individual consumers. The company serves the following categories of customers:
- Technology-forward consumers: These customers are typically early adopters of new technologies, environmentally conscious, and are drawn to the innovation, performance, and sustainability aspects of electric vehicles.
- Motorcycle enthusiasts: This group includes existing motorcycle riders who are seeking a premium, high-performance electric riding experience. They appreciate features like instant torque, quiet operation, and reduced maintenance, potentially complementing or transitioning from traditional internal combustion engine motorcycles.
- Urban and suburban commuters: Individuals looking for an agile, efficient, and environmentally friendly mode of personal transportation for daily commutes and navigating city and suburban environments.
AI Analysis | Feedback
null
AI Analysis | Feedback
Karim Donnez Chief Executive Officer
Karim Donnez was appointed CEO of LiveWire in June 2023. Before joining LiveWire, he was President of BRP's Marine Group, a role he held from May 2022. He held various roles at BRP since 2015, including Senior Vice President of Strategy, Business Development and Transformation. Prior to BRP, Donnez held leadership positions at Rio Tinto, serving as General Manager, Refinery & Energy for Rio Tinto Kennecott, where he managed business transformation initiatives. He began his career at Accenture.
Jennifer Hoover Head Accounting Officer
Jennifer Hoover has served as LiveWire's Head Accounting Officer since July 2025. Before this role, she was the Director of Financial Reporting and Accounting at LiveWire, a position she held since August 2023. Prior to joining LiveWire, Ms. Hoover worked at PricewaterhouseCoopers for 25 years, from 1998 to 2023, where her last position was Director.
Jon Bekefy Head of Global Sales & Marketing
Prior to LiveWire, Jon Bekefy served as the General Manager of Global Brand Marketing for Harley-Davidson from 2019 to 2021. He also played a key role in marketing leadership at electric vehicle start-ups, including Alta Motors (2015-2017) and Mission Motors (2013-2015).
Ryan Ragland Head of Product Development & Design
Ryan Ragland leads LiveWire's innovative product and design strategies. He joined Harley-Davidson in 2016.
Allen Gerrard General Counsel & Board Secretary
Allen Gerrard joined LiveWire from Harley-Davidson, where he was Assistant General Counsel, Products & Strategy and Assistant Secretary. He held several legal leadership roles at Harley-Davidson since 2017, providing guidance to the company's leadership team. Before his time at Harley-Davidson, Mr. Gerrard held various legal positions at PepsiCo, Inc., GE Healthcare, and Fiserv, Inc.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Key Risks to LiveWire (LVWR)
LiveWire (LVWR), the electric motorcycle manufacturer spun off from Harley-Davidson, faces several significant challenges to its business. The primary risks stem from weak market demand for its core product, persistent financial losses coupled with liquidity concerns, and a challenging competitive and regulatory environment. The most significant risk to LiveWire is the **weak demand and slow adoption of electric motorcycles**, which points to a potential product/market fit problem. The company's premium urban e-motorcycles have seen limited appeal due to their restricted range, which primarily suits short in-city trips and does not adequately address the broader leisure motorcycling market. This weak demand is further evidenced by declining average selling prices for electric motorcycles, even with the implementation of incentives. Secondly, LiveWire is burdened by **persistent financial losses and ongoing liquidity issues**, driven by high operating costs. The company has a history of losses and continues to incur significant expenses, failing to reach breakeven despite its sales efforts. In the nine months ended September 2025, operating cash outflows exceeded current assets, indicating a potential need for further capital raises through equity sales or drawing on its term loan facility, which could lead to shareholder dilution. For the full year 2025, LiveWire reported a consolidated net loss of $75.1 million. Finally, LiveWire faces a challenging **competitive landscape and waning electric vehicle (EV) incentives**. The company experiences intense competition, notably from Chinese suppliers. Compounding this, EV transition policies and incentives are diminishing in key markets such as North America and Europe, hindering LiveWire's growth prospects. Macroeconomic pressures, including inflationary environments and rising unemployment, also contribute to weakened consumer sentiment, further impacting discretionary spending on electric motorcycles.AI Analysis | Feedback
- Increased Competition from Established Motorcycle Manufacturers: Traditional motorcycle giants like Ducati, Kawasaki, BMW, and Triumph are aggressively developing and launching their own electric motorcycle models. These companies possess extensive R&D capabilities, established global dealer networks, and strong brand loyalty, posing a significant challenge to LiveWire's early-mover advantage in the premium electric motorcycle segment.
- Rapid Technological Advancements and Potential Price Erosion in Battery Technology: The electric vehicle industry is characterized by rapid innovation in battery technology, leading to improvements in range, charging speed, and potentially significant cost reductions. If LiveWire fails to continuously integrate the latest advancements or if competitors introduce more cost-effective yet high-performing electric drivetrains, LiveWire's premium pricing strategy and technological edge could be undermined, making its offerings less competitive over time.
AI Analysis | Feedback
LiveWire (LVWR) operates in two main segments: Electric Motorcycles and STACYC, which focuses on electric balance bikes for kids and adult pedal-assist electric bikes.
Electric Motorcycles
The global electric motorcycle market was valued at USD 1.30 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1.71 billion by 2032, exhibiting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.50% during the forecast period. The global premium electric motorcycle market, in which LiveWire is a player, was valued at USD 347.1 million in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 1.6 billion by 2034 with a CAGR of 16.7% between 2025 and 2034.
In the United States, the addressable market for the specific niche of 50+ horsepower on-road electric motorcycles experienced a total segment revenue of $6.1 million in 2025. This was a decrease from $8.4 million in 2024.
STACYC (Electric Balance Bikes and Adult Pedal Assist Electric Bikes)
The addressable market size for electric balance bikes for kids and adult pedal-assist electric bikes, as a specific market value for LiveWire's STACYC segment, is not explicitly available in the provided information.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for LiveWire (LVWR) over the next 2-3 years: * Launch of New Products: LiveWire is focusing on the launch of its S4 Honcho™ products, with production targeted to begin in the spring of 2026. This new product introduction is expected to contribute to revenue growth. * Expansion into New Markets: The company is continuing its expansion into new markets in Europe, specifically including Poland, Portugal, Finland, Belgium, and Luxembourg. This geographical expansion is anticipated to broaden LiveWire's customer base and increase sales. * Growth in Electric Motorcycle Sales Volume: LiveWire experienced a significant increase of 61% in electric motorcycle unit sales in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, with revenue from this segment rising by 10%. Continued momentum in increasing electric motorcycle unit sales is a key driver for future revenue. * Growth in the STACYC Segment: The STACYC segment, which sells electric balance bikes for kids, has also demonstrated consistent growth, with unit sales up 8% and revenue up 4% in Q4 2025 over Q4 2024. This segment is expected to continue contributing to overall revenue growth. * Enhanced Sales and Distribution Strategy: LiveWire is focusing on improving dealer profitability and enhancing its e-commerce strategy. These initiatives are aimed at driving incremental dealership traffic and supporting overall motorcycle sales, thereby contributing to revenue growth.AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- LiveWire repurchased approximately $1.024 million of common stock for the full year 2025.
- Approximately $1.444 million of common stock was repurchased by the company in 2024.
Share Issuance
- LiveWire went public through a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) transaction in 2022.
- In August 2025, LiveWire filed an at-the-market (ATM) issuance sales agreement, authorizing the company to raise up to $50 million through the sale of common stock.
- For the full year 2025, approximately $2.2 million was raised through ATM share issuances. As of Q3 2025, $1.3 million had been raised from the sale of 251,000 shares, with $48.7 million remaining under the ATM agreement.
Inbound Investments
- LiveWire has access to a $75 million term loan facility from Harley-Davidson, its parent company. This related-party convertible term loan was renegotiated and funded in Q4 2025, contributing to the company's cash and cash equivalents.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures amounted to approximately $3.811 million in 2025, $8.07 million in 2024, $13 million in 2023, $14 million in 2022, and $9.95 million in 2021.
- The company's capital expenditures are primarily focused on product development, including the S4 Honcho™ products, with production targeted to begin in Spring 2026.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| LiveWire Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Would You Still Hold LiveWire Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | 10/17/2025 | |
| LiveWire Stock Soars 24% In A Single Month, Why You Shouldn Not Be Buying The Stock | 08/09/2025 | |
| LiveWire (LVWR) Operating Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| LiveWire (LVWR) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| LiveWire (LVWR) Debt Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| LiveWire (LVWR) Net Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| LiveWire (LVWR) Revenue Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| LiveWire (LVWR) Tax Expense Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| LiveWire (LVWR) EBITDA Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Market Movers | Winners: LVWR, IOVA, AVXL | Losers: SSII, GHRS, KSS | 07/24/2025 | |
| LVWR Stock Down -21% after 6-Day Loss Streak | 07/17/2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to LVWR.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04242026 | MGM | MGM Resorts International | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -1.5% | -1.5% | -1.5% |
| 04242026 | WEN | Wendy's | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -2.5% | -2.5% | -5.3% |
| 04102026 | WHR | Whirlpool | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -0.8% | -0.8% | -4.8% |
| 04022026 | SKY | Champion Homes | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | -1.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 19.75 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.3 |
| Rev LTM | 5,001 |
| Op Inc LTM | -6 |
| FCF LTM | 52 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 63 |
| CFO LTM | 142 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 210 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -12.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -16.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -34.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -41.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -9.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -18.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -26.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -32.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.3 |
| P/S | 2.5 |
| P/Op Inc | 3.3 |
| P/EBIT | -2.8 |
| P/E | -2.8 |
| P/CFO | 2.1 |
| Total Yield | -13.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -3.2% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.7% |
| 6M Rtn | -11.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 17.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -25.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -18.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -107.3% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $1.78 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/27/2022 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -76.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $1.70 | $3.51 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 5.0% | -49.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 163.5% | 220.4% |
| Downside Capture | 2.15 | 1.31 |
| Upside Capture | 176.34 | 202.49 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 22.0% | 25.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 4.47 | 2.48 | 2.39 | 2.52 | 4.35 | 2.18 |
| Up Beta | 3.53 | 4.37 | 4.71 | 4.01 | 9.22 | 3.45 |
| Down Beta | 3.96 | -0.53 | 0.71 | 1.39 | 4.39 | 1.78 |
| Up Capture | 390% | 294% | 194% | 105% | 224% | 115% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 18 | 27 | 52 | 108 | 352 |
| Down Capture | 1217% | 203% | 229% | 247% | 166% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 22 | 33 | 69 | 137 | 382 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LVWR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LVWR | -0.6% | 219.9% | 0.76 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 21.3% | 18.8% | 0.90 | 23.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 30.6% | 12.5% | 1.88 | 24.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 39.5% | 27.2% | 1.20 | -6.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 51.5% | 17.9% | 2.20 | -14.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.1% | 13.5% | 0.67 | 21.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.1% | 42.2% | -0.33 | 12.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LVWR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LVWR | -26.4% | 131.3% | 0.15 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.7% | 23.8% | 0.24 | 23.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 23.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.5% | 17.9% | 0.94 | -1.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.3% | 19.1% | 0.61 | -0.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.5% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 16.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.7% | 56.2% | 0.35 | 9.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LVWR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LVWR | -14.2% | 131.3% | 0.15 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.7% | 22.0% | 0.53 | 23.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 23.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.6% | 15.9% | 0.71 | -1.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.7% | 17.7% | 0.46 | -0.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 16.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.7% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 9.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/10/2026 | -12.6% | -5.4% | -40.2% |
| 11/4/2025 | -7.0% | -12.6% | -13.0% |
| 7/30/2025 | 0.3% | -14.9% | -1.3% |
| 5/1/2025 | -14.0% | -40.8% | 151.4% |
| 2/5/2025 | -0.7% | -24.8% | -36.8% |
| 10/24/2024 | -5.3% | -3.6% | 4.2% |
| 7/25/2024 | 2.5% | -2.5% | -15.2% |
| 4/25/2024 | 0.7% | -4.0% | -6.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 4 | 5 |
| # Negative | 6 | 9 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.0% | 12.3% | 20.8% |
| Median Negative | -7.3% | -5.4% | -14.1% |
| Max Positive | 10.3% | 39.4% | 151.4% |
| Max Negative | -14.0% | -40.8% | -40.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/20/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/06/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/30/2022 | S-1/A |
| 06/30/2022 | 10/25/2022 | S-1 |
| 03/31/2022 | 06/10/2022 | S-4/A |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/10/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Operating Loss | 70.00 Mil | 75.00 Mil | 80.00 Mil | 0.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 74.50 Mil for 2025 | |
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Operating Loss | 72.00 Mil | 74.50 Mil | 77.00 Mil | 16.4% | Lowered | Guidance: 64.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bekefy, Jon | Head of Global Sales & Mktg. | Direct | Sell | 12092025 | 4.02 | 4,199 | 16,895 | 469,751 | Form |
| 2 | Donnez, Karim | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 6172025 | 5.50 | 54,661 | 300,636 | 5,440,160 | Form |
| 3 | Garcia, John L | Direct | Sell | 6132025 | 6.47 | 56,559 | 365,937 | 17,460,731 | Form | |
| 4 | Gruner, Kjell | Direct | Sell | 6132025 | 6.49 | 18,969 | 123,109 | 787,626 | Form | |
| 5 | Garcia, John L | Direct | Sell | 6132025 | 7.49 | 49,998 | 374,485 | 20,637,055 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.