Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -14%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -70%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 88x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 58x
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Consumption, Health & Wellness Trends, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Eco-friendly Products, Show more.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.7%
2   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.5%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.6%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.4%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -14%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Consumption, Health & Wellness Trends, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Eco-friendly Products, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -70%
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 88x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 58x
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.7%
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.5%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.6%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.4%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

HNST Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the approximate -28.8% stock movement for The Honest Company (HNST) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Missed Q3 2025 Revenue Expectations. The Honest Company reported third-quarter 2025 revenue of $93 million, which fell short of analyst estimates ranging from $99 million to $103.13 million. This represented a 6.7% year-over-year decrease and was primarily driven by a decline in sales across diapers, apparel, and Honest.com, as the company began transitioning away from Honest.com as a fulfillment channel.

2. Lowered Full-Year 2025 Financial Outlook. Following the disappointing Q3 results, Honest significantly reduced its full-year 2025 revenue projection. The previous guidance of 4% to 6% growth was revised downwards to a new range of a 3% decline to flat. The company also decreased its adjusted EBITDA forecast from an earlier range of $27 million-$30 million to a new range of $21 million-$23 million, signaling reduced expectations for future profitability.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
HNST Return---63%10%110%-61%-67%
Peers Return12%39%-14%30%2%-21%41%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
HNST Win Rate-29%25%33%58%30% 
Peers Win Rate58%56%39%53%50%30% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
HNST Max Drawdown---68%-63%-25%-66% 
Peers Max Drawdown-28%-5%-30%-5%-14%-26% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: IPAR, CENT, LGM, MXRX, CL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventHNSTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-95.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1990.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to IPAR, CENT, LGM, MXRX, CL


In The Past

Honest's stock fell -95.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/5/2021. A -95.2% loss requires a 1990.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Honest (HNST)

Better Bets than Honest (HNST)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to HNST. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.1%3.1%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.9%-1.9%-1.9%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.3%-5.3%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.5%3.5%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.1%2.1%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
3.1%3.1%0.0%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.9%-1.9%-1.9%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.3%-5.3%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.5%3.5%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.1%2.1%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Honest

Peers to compare with:

Financials

HNSTIPARCENTLGMMXRXCLMedian
NameHonest Interpar.Central .SIXGOMEOWMed-X Colgate-. 
Mkt Price2.8282.0433.90--78.2056.05
Mkt Cap0.32.62.1--63.42.4
Rev LTM3831,4643,120-219,9991,464
Op Inc LTM5283224--74,346224
FCF LTM-22142312--3,370227
FCF 3Y Avg-489277--3,028183
CFO LTM-21206353--3,920280
CFO 3Y Avg-3148325--3,659236

Growth & Margins

HNSTIPARCENTLGMMXRXCLMedian
NameHonest Interpar.Central .SIXGOMEOWMed-X Colgate-. 
Rev Chg LTM3.9%3.1%-4.9%--0.1%1.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg7.1%14.7%-2.5%--4.2%5.6%
Rev Chg Q-6.7%1.2%-3.6%--1.0%-1.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.7%0.3%-1.1%--0.3%-0.4%
Op Mgn LTM1.2%19.3%7.2%--425.4%21.7%7.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-5.0%19.2%6.9%--21.2%13.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.1%0.1%0.7%---0.1%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM-5.5%14.1%11.3%--19.6%12.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-0.9%10.5%10.1%--18.7%10.3%
FCF/Rev LTM-5.6%9.7%10.0%--16.9%9.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-1.1%6.3%8.6%--15.4%7.4%

Valuation

HNSTIPARCENTLGMMXRXCLMedian
NameHonest Interpar.Central .SIXGOMEOWMed-X Colgate-. 
Mkt Cap0.32.62.1--63.42.4
P/S1.12.20.7--3.21.6
P/EBIT88.011.29.0--15.413.3
P/E58.219.215.7--22.320.7
P/CFO-19.615.36.2--16.510.7
Total Yield1.7%8.4%6.4%--7.3%6.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%3.2%0.0%--2.8%1.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-4.2%2.5%12.3%--4.4%3.4%
D/E0.00.10.7--0.10.1
Net D/E-0.10.00.3--0.10.1

Returns

HNSTIPARCENTLGMMXRXCLMedian
NameHonest Interpar.Central .SIXGOMEOWMed-X Colgate-. 
1M Rtn-16.1%-9.4%9.3%--4.3%-2.6%
3M Rtn-28.8%-27.3%-8.4%---6.1%-17.9%
6M Rtn-44.4%-39.4%-4.4%---12.2%-25.8%
12M Rtn-64.8%-38.7%-15.8%---15.3%-27.3%
3Y Rtn-6.3%-11.7%2.2%--7.4%-2.1%
1M Excs Rtn-16.0%-9.4%9.4%--4.3%-2.5%
3M Excs Rtn-34.3%-33.1%-15.1%---11.3%-24.1%
6M Excs Rtn-59.1%-54.1%-19.1%---26.9%-40.5%
12M Excs Rtn-79.5%-52.4%-28.3%---30.7%-41.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-70.3%-77.2%-67.8%---62.9%-69.0%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity16,125,226
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-4.4%
Average Daily Volume7,649,063
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.11
Basic Shares Quantity111,839,451
Short % of Basic Shares14.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023308202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022316202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221110202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022812202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022513202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021328202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Ball Dorria L.Chief People Officer8212025Sell3.654,85617,724975,977Form
1Mayle JonathanSVP, Customer Sales8212025Sell3.654,80617,5421,088,233Form
2Vernon CarlaChief Executive Officer8212025Sell3.6599,328362,54710,946,324Form
3Sternweis ThomasSVP, Enterprise Dev. & Strat.8212025Sell3.655,15318,8081,061,708Form
4Sheehey BrendanGeneral Counsel8212025Sell3.6512,05944,0152,075,346Form