Honest (HNST)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $2.82 | Market Cap: $315.4 MilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Household Products
Honest (HNST)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $2.82Market Cap: $315.4 MilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Household Products
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -14% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -70% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 88x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 58x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Consumption, Health & Wellness Trends, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Eco-friendly Products, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.7% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.5%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.6% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.4% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -14% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Consumption, Health & Wellness Trends, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Eco-friendly Products, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -70% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 88x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 58x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.7% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.5%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.6% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.4% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HNST Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the approximate -28.8% stock movement for The Honest Company (HNST) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Missed Q3 2025 Revenue Expectations. The Honest Company reported third-quarter 2025 revenue of $93 million, which fell short of analyst estimates ranging from $99 million to $103.13 million. This represented a 6.7% year-over-year decrease and was primarily driven by a decline in sales across diapers, apparel, and Honest.com, as the company began transitioning away from Honest.com as a fulfillment channel.
2. Lowered Full-Year 2025 Financial Outlook. Following the disappointing Q3 results, Honest significantly reduced its full-year 2025 revenue projection. The previous guidance of 4% to 6% growth was revised downwards to a new range of a 3% decline to flat. The company also decreased its adjusted EBITDA forecast from an earlier range of $27 million-$30 million to a new range of $21 million-$23 million, signaling reduced expectations for future profitability.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HNST Return | - | - | -63% | 10% | 110% | -61% | -67% |
| Peers Return | 12% | 39% | -14% | 30% | 2% | -21% | 41% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HNST Win Rate | - | 29% | 25% | 33% | 58% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 56% | 39% | 53% | 50% | 30% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HNST Max Drawdown | - | - | -68% | -63% | -25% | -66% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -5% | -30% | -5% | -14% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: IPAR, CENT, LGM, MXRX, CL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HNST | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -95.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1990.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to IPAR, CENT, LGM, MXRX, CL
In The Past
Honest's stock fell -95.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/5/2021. A -95.2% loss requires a 1990.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HNST. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.5% | 3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Honest
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 56.05 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.4 |
| Rev LTM | 1,464 |
| Op Inc LTM | 224 |
| FCF LTM | 227 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 183 |
| CFO LTM | 280 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 236 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.4 |
| P/S | 1.6 |
| P/EBIT | 13.3 |
| P/E | 20.7 |
| P/CFO | 10.7 |
| Total Yield | 6.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -17.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -25.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -27.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -2.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -24.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -40.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -41.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -69.0% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3082024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8122022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5132022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Ball Dorria L. | Chief People Officer | 8212025 | Sell | 3.65 | 4,856 | 17,724 | 975,977 | Form |
| 1 | Mayle Jonathan | SVP, Customer Sales | 8212025 | Sell | 3.65 | 4,806 | 17,542 | 1,088,233 | Form |
| 2 | Vernon Carla | Chief Executive Officer | 8212025 | Sell | 3.65 | 99,328 | 362,547 | 10,946,324 | Form |
| 3 | Sternweis Thomas | SVP, Enterprise Dev. & Strat. | 8212025 | Sell | 3.65 | 5,153 | 18,808 | 1,061,708 | Form |
| 4 | Sheehey Brendan | General Counsel | 8212025 | Sell | 3.65 | 12,059 | 44,015 | 2,075,346 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |