Honest (HNST)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $2.785 | Market Cap: $311.5 MilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Household Products
Honest (HNST)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $2.785Market Cap: $311.5 MilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Household Products
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -14% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -41%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -65% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 88x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 58x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Consumption, Health & Wellness Trends, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Eco-friendly Products, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.7% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.5%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.6% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.4% | ||
| Key risksHNST key risks include [1] near-term revenue declines and execution challenges from its "Transformation 2.0" strategic restructuring and [2] the risk that these investments may fail to yield anticipated benefits. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -14% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Consumption, Health & Wellness Trends, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Eco-friendly Products, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -41%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -65% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 88x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 58x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.7% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.5%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.6% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.4% |
| Key risksHNST key risks include [1] near-term revenue declines and execution challenges from its "Transformation 2.0" strategic restructuring and [2] the risk that these investments may fail to yield anticipated benefits. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HNST Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The Honest Company (HNST) experienced a decline of approximately 29.5% in its stock price between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025. This movement can be attributed to several key factors.
1. Missed Third Quarter 2025 Revenue Expectations: The company reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings on November 5, 2025, revealing revenue of $93 million, which fell short of analysts' expectations of $103.13 million. This represented a 7% year-over-year decline, primarily driven by decreased sales in diapers, apparel, and through Honest.com.
2. Decline in Gross Margin and Adjusted EBITDA: In Q3 2025, The Honest Company's gross margin decreased by 140 basis points to 37.3%. This reduction was mainly due to lower sales volume and increased tariff costs. Additionally, Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter declined to $4 million, down from $7 million in the prior year.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HNST Return | � | � | -63% | 10% | 110% | -59% | � |
| Peers Return | 20% | 8% | -10% | 4% | 15% | -19% | 13% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HNST Win Rate | � | 29% | 25% | 33% | 58% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 43% | 50% | 62% | 28% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HNST Max Drawdown | � | � | -68% | -63% | -25% | -66% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -13% | -12% | -24% | -10% | -2% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PG, KMB, CL, CHD, CLX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HNST | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -95.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1990.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to IPAR, CENT, LGM, MXRX, CL
In The Past
Honest's stock fell -95.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/5/2021. A -95.2% loss requires a 1990.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HNST. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.9% | -5.9% | -7.5% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.4% | 15.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.7% | 6.7% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.7% | -3.7% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.9% | -5.9% | -7.5% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.4% | 15.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.7% | 6.7% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.7% | -3.7% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Honest
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 94.02 |
| Mkt Cap | 27.7 |
| Rev LTM | 12,827 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,120 |
| FCF LTM | 1,516 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,661 |
| CFO LTM | 1,972 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,140 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 27.7 |
| P/S | 2.7 |
| P/EBIT | 15.9 |
| P/E | 21.9 |
| P/CFO | 17.1 |
| Total Yield | 5.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -12.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -11.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -17.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 3.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -24.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -28.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -64.5% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | -29.4% | -17.0% | -17.9% |
| 8/6/2025 | -17.3% | -11.4% | -11.3% |
| 5/7/2025 | -8.8% | 5.0% | 7.5% |
| 2/26/2025 | -11.9% | -8.1% | -12.3% |
| 11/12/2024 | 25.2% | 52.5% | 44.8% |
| 8/8/2024 | 13.6% | 30.6% | 20.7% |
| 3/6/2024 | 24.8% | 47.0% | 20.3% |
| 11/8/2023 | 23.3% | 25.0% | 106.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 8 | 7 |
| # Negative | 9 | 7 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 18.5% | 16.3% | 20.3% |
| Median Negative | -11.9% | -13.7% | -14.4% |
| Max Positive | 25.2% | 52.5% | 106.2% |
| Max Negative | -33.3% | -41.6% | -35.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3082024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8122022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5132022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Ball Dorria L. | Chief People Officer | 8212025 | Sell | 3.65 | 4,856 | 17,724 | 975,977 | Form |
| 1 | Mayle Jonathan | SVP, Customer Sales | 8212025 | Sell | 3.65 | 4,806 | 17,542 | 1,088,233 | Form |
| 2 | Vernon Carla | Chief Executive Officer | 8212025 | Sell | 3.65 | 99,328 | 362,547 | 10,946,324 | Form |
| 3 | Sternweis Thomas | SVP, Enterprise Dev. & Strat. | 8212025 | Sell | 3.65 | 5,153 | 18,808 | 1,061,708 | Form |
| 4 | Sheehey Brendan | General Counsel | 8212025 | Sell | 3.65 | 12,059 | 44,015 | 2,075,346 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |