Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.5%, Dividend Yield is 4.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.4%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.1%, Dist 3Y High is -0.1%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 55%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -42%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.9%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 6.7%
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -21%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.5%, Dividend Yield is 4.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.4%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 6.7%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Show more.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.1%, Dist 3Y High is -0.1%
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -42%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 55%
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.9%
8 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -21%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

ALE Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for the movement of ALLETE (ALE) stock between July 31, 2025, and November 15, 2025:

1. Q3 2025 Earnings Miss: ALLETE reported significantly lower third-quarter 2025 earnings of $0.46 per share on net income of $27.1 million, which was a considerable drop from $0.78 per share in the third quarter of 2024 and missed analyst expectations of $0.80 per share.

2. Regulatory Approval of Strategic Partnership: The Minnesota Public Utilities Commission (MPUC) unanimously approved ALLETE's strategic partnership with Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and Global Infrastructure Partners on October 3, 2025. This was identified as the final regulatory approval needed for the acquisition to proceed.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ALE Return-20%11%1%-1%11%8%6%
Peers Return-11%10%2%-1%31%22%58%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%107%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ALE Win Rate42%58%42%42%42%70% 
Peers Win Rate40%43%58%52%55%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ALE Max Drawdown-38%-3%-25%-19%-7%-0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-26%-5%-11%-19%-9%-10% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BKH, NWE, MGEE, AVA, CEG. See ALE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventALES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-33.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven50.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-41.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven69.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-16.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven19.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven269 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-53.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven113.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1510 days1480 days

Compare to BKH, NWE, MGEE, AVA, CEG


In The Past

ALLETE's stock fell -33.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/6/2021. A -33.6% loss requires a 50.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About ALLETE (ALE)

Better Bets than ALLETE (ALE)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ALE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
10.3%10.3%0.0%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.2%8.2%-3.2%
VST_5312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%05312025VSTVistraQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
9.0%9.0%0.0%
ALE_3312020_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy03312020ALEALLETEDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-13.2%15.6%-17.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
10.3%10.3%0.0%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.2%8.2%-3.2%
VST_5312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%05312025VSTVistraQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
9.0%9.0%0.0%
ALE_3312020_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy03312020ALEALLETEDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-13.2%15.6%-17.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for ALLETE

Financials

ALEBKHNWEMGEEAVACEGMedian
NameALLETE Black Hi.NorthWes.MGE Ener.Avista Constell. 
Mkt Price67.4569.5465.2282.4140.93338.6768.50
Mkt Cap3.95.14.03.03.3106.04.0
Rev LTM1,5002,2721,5707261,96424,8411,767
Op Inc LTM1395303571663443,017351
FCF LTM-322-105-122-32-23-276-114
FCF 3Y Avg6790-129-1-81-4,768-41
CFO LTM3436584012974842,416443
CFO 3Y Avg478753411251430-2,252420

Growth & Margins

ALEBKHNWEMGEEAVACEGMedian
NameALLETE Black Hi.NorthWes.MGE Ener.Avista Constell. 
Rev Chg LTM-4.3%7.0%4.9%8.3%2.1%3.6%4.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg0.4%-0.1%3.9%2.0%6.4%3.7%2.9%
Rev Chg Q-7.9%7.1%12.1%4.3%2.3%0.3%3.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.1%1.3%2.7%1.0%0.5%0.1%0.7%
Op Mgn LTM9.2%23.3%22.8%22.9%17.5%12.1%20.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg9.6%21.4%21.3%21.7%15.4%11.1%18.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.8%-0.2%0.2%0.2%0.5%-1.7%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM22.8%29.0%25.6%40.9%24.6%9.7%25.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg28.4%32.7%27.1%35.7%22.7%-8.9%27.7%
FCF/Rev LTM-21.5%-4.6%-7.8%-4.4%-1.2%-1.1%-4.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2.5%3.6%-8.5%-0.0%-4.5%-19.0%-2.3%

Valuation

ALEBKHNWEMGEEAVACEGMedian
NameALLETE Black Hi.NorthWes.MGE Ener.Avista Constell. 
Mkt Cap3.95.14.03.03.3106.04.0
P/S2.62.22.64.21.74.32.6
P/EBIT21.49.510.816.19.425.413.5
P/E23.717.818.522.417.638.720.4
P/CFO11.47.710.010.16.943.910.1
Total Yield8.5%9.4%9.4%6.7%10.4%3.0%9.0%
Dividend Yield4.3%3.8%4.0%2.2%4.7%0.4%3.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.8%2.7%-3.9%-0.0%-3.1%-9.5%-1.5%
D/E0.60.90.80.31.00.10.7
Net D/E0.60.90.80.30.90.00.7

Returns

ALEBKHNWEMGEEAVACEGMedian
NameALLETE Black Hi.NorthWes.MGE Ener.Avista Constell. 
1M Rtn0.2%11.3%10.0%-2.3%6.5%-12.3%3.3%
3M Rtn4.0%16.4%20.1%-0.6%10.9%5.0%8.0%
6M Rtn4.7%20.5%18.2%-10.9%6.0%15.5%10.7%
12M Rtn8.4%17.0%24.1%-19.8%14.1%51.8%15.5%
3Y Rtn17.7%16.2%35.7%23.6%20.8%272.0%22.2%
1M Excs Rtn0.1%11.2%9.9%-2.4%6.4%-12.4%3.2%
3M Excs Rtn0.3%11.3%8.9%-6.5%6.1%2.8%4.5%
6M Excs Rtn-7.2%8.6%6.3%-22.8%-5.9%3.6%-1.2%
12M Excs Rtn-2.5%4.7%12.4%-33.8%3.5%39.5%4.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-42.1%-50.1%-28.9%-44.0%-46.7%196.7%-43.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Regulated Operations4,3354,2914,2894,1974,131
ALLETE Clean Energy1,5941,8731,7191,4831,002
Corporate and Other727681426404350
Total6,6566,8466,4356,0855,483


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity775,836
Short Interest: % Change Since 10152025-11.4%
Average Daily Volume479,933
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.62
Basic Shares Quantity58,100,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.3%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/29/2011-1.0%-4.0%-5.3%
10/30/2009-1.3%-2.6%-1.2%
5/5/20062.0%-0.8%-1.9%
2/16/20062.3%6.0%3.6%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive211
# Negative233
Median Positive2.2%6.0%3.6%
Median Negative-1.2%-2.6%-1.9%
Max Positive2.3%6.0%3.6%
Max Negative-1.3%-4.0%-5.3%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251031202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024213202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023220202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022216202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021216202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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