Tearsheet

Union Pacific (UNP)


Market Price (12/25/2025): $235.03 | Market Cap: $139.2 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Rail Transportation

Union Pacific (UNP)


Market Price (12/25/2025): $235.03
Market Cap: $139.2 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Rail Transportation

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.4%, Dividend Yield is 2.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.2%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -44%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -59%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.2%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 41%
  Key risks
UNP key risks include [1] the ongoing decline in coal transportation demand and [2] volatility in international intermodal volumes, Show more.
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, CFO LTM is 9.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.0 Bil
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 22%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, Automation & Robotics, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.4%, Dividend Yield is 2.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.2%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 41%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, CFO LTM is 9.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.0 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 22%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, Automation & Robotics, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -44%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -59%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.2%
7 Key risks
UNP key risks include [1] the ongoing decline in coal transportation demand and [2] volatility in international intermodal volumes, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

UNP Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

1. Union Pacific's Q3 2025 earnings surpassed analyst expectations. The company reported diluted earnings per share of $3.08, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.99 per share, representing an earnings surprise of +3.01% for the quarter ended September 2025. Operating revenues also slightly surpassed estimates.



2. Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern filed a significant merger application in December 2025. On December 19, 2025, Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern submitted an application to the Surface Transportation Board (STB) to combine their railroads, aiming to create the first transcontinental railroad in the U.S. This proposed merger is projected to significantly enhance competition, improve service efficiency by converting thousands of interline services into faster single-line services, and is expected to take an estimated 2 million truckloads of freight off highways annually.



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1. Union Pacific's Q3 2025 earnings surpassed analyst expectations. The company reported diluted earnings per share of $3.08, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.99 per share, representing an earnings surprise of +3.01% for the quarter ended September 2025. Operating revenues also slightly surpassed estimates.



2. Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern filed a significant merger application in December 2025. On December 19, 2025, Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern submitted an application to the Surface Transportation Board (STB) to combine their railroads, aiming to create the first transcontinental railroad in the U.S. This proposed merger is projected to significantly enhance competition, improve service efficiency by converting thousands of interline services into faster single-line services, and is expected to take an estimated 2 million truckloads of freight off highways annually.



3. Analyst ratings maintained a positive outlook for UNP throughout 2025. Several Wall Street analysts covering Union Pacific continued to issue "Buy" or "Strong Buy" ratings, with an average price target indicating a potential upside for the stock. For instance, the average price target from 17 analysts was $259.24 by late 2025, representing a potential 10.5% upside from a stock price of $234.61.



4. The company forecast a positive earnings rebound for 2025, driven by operational efficiency. Union Pacific anticipated its 2025 earnings to rebound from Q4 2024, emphasizing continued focus on cost-cutting measures and improvements in operational efficiency. The company reported improved operational metrics in Q2 and Q3 2025, including better freight car velocity, locomotive productivity, and workforce productivity.



5. Resilient intermodal volumes and core pricing gains supported revenue growth. Despite an anticipated soft economic environment and some mixed signals in the broader freight market for 2025, Union Pacific reported increased volumes and core pricing gains contributing to operating revenue. U.S. rail intermodal shipments rebounded in July 2025, and total carloads also saw increases year-over-year.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 2.6% change in UNP stock from 9/24/2025 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a 1.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
924202512242025Change
Stock Price ($)229.02235.052.63%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)24393.0024546.000.63%
Net Income Margin (%)28.43%28.73%1.05%
P/E Multiple19.6219.750.64%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)594.10592.400.29%
Cumulative Contribution2.63%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/24/2025 to 12/24/2025
ReturnCorrelation
UNP2.6% 
Market (SPY)4.4%26.0%
Sector (XLI)3.4%42.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The 4.9% change in UNP stock from 6/25/2025 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a 3.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
625202512242025Change
Stock Price ($)224.09235.054.89%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)24246.0024546.001.24%
Net Income Margin (%)27.77%28.73%3.47%
P/E Multiple20.0119.75-1.30%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)601.00592.401.43%
Cumulative Contribution4.87%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/25/2025 to 12/24/2025
ReturnCorrelation
UNP4.9% 
Market (SPY)14.0%25.2%
Sector (XLI)10.0%38.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The 4.7% change in UNP stock from 12/24/2024 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a 5.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
1224202412242025Change
Stock Price ($)224.40235.054.75%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)24288.0024546.001.06%
Net Income Margin (%)27.33%28.73%5.14%
P/E Multiple20.5419.75-3.88%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)607.60592.402.50%
Cumulative Contribution4.68%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/24/2024 to 12/24/2025
ReturnCorrelation
UNP4.7% 
Market (SPY)15.8%58.0%
Sector (XLI)18.6%66.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The 20.1% change in UNP stock from 12/25/2022 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a 15.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
1225202212242025Change
Stock Price ($)195.64235.0520.14%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)24428.0024546.000.48%
Net Income Margin (%)28.95%28.73%-0.75%
P/E Multiple17.1719.7515.03%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)620.40592.404.51%
Cumulative Contribution19.90%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/25/2023 to 12/24/2025
ReturnCorrelation
UNP1.0% 
Market (SPY)48.9%50.3%
Sector (XLI)42.7%64.8%

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
UNP Return18%23%-16%22%-5%5%48%
Peers Return26%24%-9%8%-9%12%60%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%18%115%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
UNP Win Rate58%50%42%50%33%67% 
Peers Win Rate70%53%37%52%48%55% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
UNP Max Drawdown-37%-7%-25%-10%-9%-8% 
Peers Max Drawdown-32%-5%-20%-11%-14%-14% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CSX, NSC, CP, CNI, JBHT. See UNP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/24/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventUNPS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-32.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven48.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-39.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven64.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven141 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-22.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven28.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven50 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-59.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven149.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven578 days1,480 days

Compare to CSX, CP, NSC, CNI, UNP

In The Past

Union Pacific's stock fell -32.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/30/2022. A -32.6% loss requires a 48.4% gain to breakeven.

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About Union Pacific (UNP)

Union Pacific Corporation, through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company, operates in the railroad business in the United States. The company offers transportation services for grain and grain products, fertilizers, food and refrigerated products, and coal and renewables to grain processors, animal feeders, ethanol producers, and other agricultural users; petroleum, and liquid petroleum gases; and construction products, industrial chemicals, plastics, forest products, specialized products, metals and ores, soda ash, and sand, as well as finished automobiles, automotive parts, and merchandise in intermodal containers. As of December 31, 2021, its rail network included 32,452 route miles connecting Pacific Coast and Gulf Coast ports with the Midwest and Eastern United States gateways. The company was founded in 1862 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • It's like **a utility company, but for moving vast amounts of freight by rail.**
  • Think of it as **AT&T, but for freight transportation across the country,** leveraging a massive physical network.
  • It's similar to **Kinder Morgan, but operating railroads for diverse goods instead of pipelines for energy.**

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Intermodal Freight Transportation: Provides bulk transportation of shipping containers and truck trailers, often linking ports to inland distribution centers.
  • Agricultural Product Transportation: Moves various farm-related commodities, including grains, processed foods, beverages, and fertilizers.
  • Automotive Product Transportation: Specializes in the shipment of finished automobiles, trucks, and automotive parts for manufacturers and dealerships.
  • Chemical Product Transportation: Carries a broad array of chemical products, such as plastics, industrial chemicals, petroleum products, and fertilizers.
  • Industrial Product Transportation: Handles the movement of diverse industrial goods, including construction materials, metals, minerals, forest products, and paper.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Union Pacific (UNP) is a freight railroad company, meaning it primarily sells its services to other businesses rather than individuals. Due to the diversified nature of freight transportation, railroads typically serve thousands of customers across various industries, and no single customer usually accounts for a significant percentage (e.g., 10% or more) of their total revenue.

However, Union Pacific has numerous large corporate customers and partners that rely heavily on its rail network for the transport of goods across North America. These companies represent key sectors that form the backbone of Union Pacific's freight volumes.

Here are some of the types of companies that are major customers or significant partners for Union Pacific, along with examples of prominent public companies within those categories:

  • Intermodal Logistics Companies: These companies manage the movement of freight in containers and trailers, often for retail goods, e-commerce, and parcel delivery, leveraging rail for long-haul transport.
    • J.B. Hunt Transport Services (NASDAQ: JBHT)
    • Hub Group (NASDAQ: HUBG)
    • XPO, Inc. (NYSE: XPO)
  • Automotive Manufacturers: Major car manufacturers rely on rail to transport finished vehicles, parts, and components across the country to dealerships and assembly plants.
    • Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F)
    • General Motors Company (NYSE: GM)
    • Stellantis N.V. (NYSE: STLA)
  • Chemical and Petrochemical Companies: These companies ship a wide range of products, including plastics, fertilizers, and industrial chemicals, often in specialized rail cars.
    • Dow Inc. (NYSE: DOW)
    • LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (NYSE: LYB)
    • Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) (for its chemical divisions)
  • Agricultural Companies: Major agribusinesses and food processors use rail to transport grains, fertilizers, processed foods, and refrigerated goods.
    • Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (NYSE: ADM)
    • Bunge Global SA (NYSE: BG)
    • Tyson Foods, Inc. (NYSE: TSN)
  • Retail and E-commerce Giants: While often working through intermodal partners, large retailers and e-commerce companies are significant ultimate users of rail for their extensive supply chains.
    • Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT)
    • Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN)

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Wabtec Corporation (WAB)
  • Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
  • Siemens AG (SIEGY)

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Jim Vena Chief Executive Officer

Jim Vena was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Union Pacific in August 2023, bringing over 40 years of experience in the railroad industry. He began his career at Canadian National Railway (CN) as a laborer and progressed through various roles in Engineering, Mechanical, and Operating departments, even operating trains as a locomotive engineer. He later held management positions in Operations, Marketing, Strategic Planning, and Labor Relations at CN, ultimately serving as executive vice president and chief operating officer. Vena previously served as Union Pacific's chief operating officer from 2019 to 2020, during which he led a team that achieved significant efficiency savings and delivered the company's best service. He also served as a senior advisor to the chairman in 2021 before returning as CEO. Vena has served as chairman of the Association of American Railroads (AAR) and as a board member for Direct ChassisLink Inc. (DCLI), a privately held company, and FedEx. There is no information indicating he founded or sold other companies, or has a pattern of managing private equity-backed companies.

Jennifer Hamann Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

Jennifer Hamann was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Union Pacific on January 1, 2020. In this role, she is responsible for all aspects of the company's financial activities, including accounting, tax, real estate, investor relations, treasury, audit, and capital planning. Hamann joined Union Pacific in 1992 as a member of the corporate audit staff. Her extensive career at the company includes leadership positions in Human Resources, Investor Relations (Assistant Vice President), Corporate Audit (General Auditor), Marketing and Sales (Vice President and General Manager-Automotive), and Finance (Vice President-Planning and Analysis, Senior Vice President-Finance). She holds an MBA from the University of Nebraska at Omaha and is a Certified Public Accountant. Hamann serves on the boards of Grupo Ferroviario Mexicano and TTX Company, and was appointed as an independent director to the Steel Dynamics Board of Directors in 2023. While she was involved with Missouri-Pacific Corp. in an Investor Relations capacity, which was later acquired, there is no indication she founded or managed other companies that were sold, or has a pattern of managing private equity-backed companies.

Eric Gehringer Executive Vice President, Operations

Eric Gehringer has served as Executive Vice President-Operations since 2021, overseeing all aspects of Union Pacific's operations. He joined the company in 2006 as a management trainee and has held various roles, including senior vice president-Transportation, Operating's chief mechanical officer, and chief engineer. Prior to joining Union Pacific, Gehringer held positions at Northwest Airlines and Daimler Chrysler.

Rahul Jalali Executive Vice President, Chief Information Officer

Rahul Jalali was appointed senior vice president and chief information officer in November 2020, and was promoted to Executive Vice President in June 2023. He leads the company's technology strategy, focusing on innovation, speed-to-market, and optimizing business models through technology. Before Union Pacific, Jalali spent 23 years at Walmart Inc., where he held increasing leadership roles, most recently as corporate vice president in the technology division for Walmart International. He specialized in developing global technology solutions and leveraging data, automation, and machine learning. Jalali is also an active member of the advisory committee of the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA).

Kenny Rocker Executive Vice President, Marketing and Sales

Kenny Rocker was appointed Executive Vice President-Marketing and Sales in August 2018. He is responsible for Union Pacific's three main business units: Bulk, Industrial, and Premium, as well as Marketing and Sales Operations, Commercial Strategy, and the company's Mexico business. Rocker also oversees the Loup Logistics subsidiary. He joined Union Pacific in 1994 and has held various positions within Marketing and Sales, including vice president-Industrial.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Union Pacific (UNP) primarily stem from its susceptibility to broader economic conditions and shifts in market demand, significant operational challenges including labor relations and safety, and evolving regulatory and environmental landscapes.

  1. Economic Conditions and Market Demand Fluctuations: Union Pacific's revenue and freight volumes are highly sensitive to the overall economic environment, including slowdowns, inflation, and interest rate changes, which can lead to reduced demand for transportation services. A significant risk is the ongoing decline in coal transportation demand due to high inventory levels and competition from natural gas, as well as the long-term transition away from coal in the energy mix. Furthermore, volatility in international intermodal volumes, driven by changing consumer preferences, logistics trends, and international trade uncertainties, presents a considerable challenge to top-line growth.
  2. Operational Risks and Cost Pressures: The rail industry, and Union Pacific specifically, faces recurring operational challenges and cost pressures. Labor relations are a critical risk, with the potential for strikes, labor shortages, and costly contract negotiations impacting service quality, operational performance, and profitability, given that a significant portion of Union Pacific's workforce is unionized. Additionally, rising costs for labor, materials, and fuel can significantly affect operational efficiency and profitability. Maintaining safety is also paramount, as personal injuries and derailment incidents, despite ongoing efforts, can lead to disruptions and increased expenditures.
  3. Regulatory and Environmental Changes: Union Pacific is exposed to risks associated with evolving regulatory and environmental factors. Changes in transportation regulations, taxes, or environmental policies, particularly those related to carbon emissions and greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions, could substantially increase operating costs due to the company's reliance on diesel fuel. Geopolitical tensions and shifts in trade policies also introduce uncertainties that can disrupt global supply chains and affect freight volumes, especially for commodities tied to international markets. The long-term transition risk away from fossil fuels, while being addressed by the company through investments in renewable diesel and wind infrastructure, remains a structural headwind.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Shift in Global Supply Chains and Nearshoring/Reshoring: Growing geopolitical tensions, a desire for supply chain resilience following disruptions (such as COVID-19), and government incentives are prompting companies to relocate manufacturing and sourcing closer to end markets (e.g., from Asia to North America or Mexico). This trend could reduce the volume of long-haul intermodal traffic originating from West Coast ports, which is a significant component of Union Pacific's freight business, as goods would require less extensive domestic rail transport if produced closer to consumption.
  • Advancements in Autonomous and Electric Trucking: Significant investment and technological progress in autonomous driving and heavy-duty electric vehicle technology for long-haul trucking present an emerging threat. If these technologies mature and achieve widespread adoption, they could substantially reduce operating costs (primarily labor and fuel) and increase efficiency for trucking companies, potentially making truck transport more competitive against rail for certain freight segments that currently rely on rail for cost-effectiveness over long distances.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) primarily provides freight transportation services across 23 states in the western two-thirds of the United States, with connections to Canadian and Mexican rail systems. The addressable markets for its main products and services are primarily within North America.

Addressable Markets for Union Pacific's Main Products or Services:

  • North American Rail Freight Market: The North America rail freight transportation market is forecast to increase by USD 37.53 billion at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.3% between 2024 and 2029. Another estimate valued the North America Rail Transport Market at USD 84.82 billion in 2024, projected to reach USD 128.11 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 4.31%. The North America railroad market is expected to reach a projected revenue of US$129,684.6 million by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 5.3% from 2025 to 2030.
  • U.S. Rail Freight Transport Market: The United States rail freight transport market size is estimated at USD 71.77 billion in 2025 and is forecast to expand at a 3.39% CAGR from 2025 to 2030. In 2024, the U.S. railroad market generated a revenue of USD 64,538.0 million and is expected to reach USD 89,352.7 million by 2030, with a CAGR of 5.5% from 2025 to 2030. Freight rail contributed over 95% of the USD 113 billion in total rail transportation revenues in the U.S. in 2022.
  • North American Intermodal Freight Market: The North American intermodal freight market is the largest in the world, with an estimated value of USD 51 billion. The global intermodal freight transportation market size was estimated at USD 42.9 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 93.51 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 12.1% from 2024 to 2030. North America held the largest share of 35.6% in this market in 2023.
  • Industrial Freight: null
  • Bulk Freight: null

AI Analysis | Feedback

Union Pacific (UNP) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key strategies: * Increased Volume and Core Pricing Gains: Union Pacific's third-quarter 2024 results already demonstrated revenue growth driven by increased volume and core pricing gains. The company's management highlighted that improved safety and service performance supported this solid revenue growth. Looking ahead, Union Pacific anticipates that revenue, excluding fuel surcharge revenue, will grow faster than volume (excluding coal) over the next three years. They also expect pricing dollars to be accretive to the operating ratio starting in 2025. * Operational Excellence and Service Improvements: A core component of Union Pacific's strategy is "Safety, Service and Operational Excellence," which is viewed as a direct driver of growth. Continuous improvements in service and operational efficiency are expected to support increased volume handling and overall revenue expansion. * Growth in Specific Business Segments: While overall revenue growth is anticipated, particular segments are expected to contribute significantly. For example, in the first quarter of 2025, international container shipments and grain were noted as main contributors to increased traffic volume, offsetting declines in other areas like coal and oil. This suggests a focus on growing these more robust segments. * Strategic Capital Investments: Union Pacific plans annual capital investments of approximately $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion over the next three years. These investments are likely aimed at enhancing infrastructure, technology, and operational capabilities to support future volume growth and efficiency, ultimately contributing to revenue expansion. * Customer Focus and Market Outpacing: The company's strategy involves delivering for its customers and shareholders, aiming for sustainable long-term success. Union Pacific expects its volume (excluding coal) to outpace the markets it serves over the next three years, indicating a strategy to capture a larger share of the freight transportation market.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • In February 2022, Union Pacific authorized a new share repurchase program to buy back up to 100 million shares of its common stock by March 31, 2025.
  • The company repurchased $6.282 billion in shares in 2022, $705 million in 2023, and $1.5 billion in 2024.
  • In February 2025, Union Pacific initiated an accelerated share repurchase program worth $1.5 billion and expects total share repurchases of $4.0 billion to $4.5 billion for 2025. Share repurchases were paused in October 2025 due to the Norfolk Southern merger.

Share Issuance

No significant share issuances by Union Pacific have been reported over the last 3-5 years.

Inbound Investments

No large inbound investments by third-parties in Union Pacific have been reported over the last 3-5 years.

Outbound Investments

No strategic outbound investments in other companies by Union Pacific have been reported over the last 3-5 years.

Capital Expenditures

  • Union Pacific's capital expenditures were $2.9 billion in 2021, $3.6 billion in 2022, $3.7 billion in 2023, and $3.4 billion in 2024.
  • The company's planned capital expenditure for 2025 is $3.4 billion, with an expectation to invest between $3.4 billion and $3.7 billion annually over the next three years (2025-2027).
  • Primary focus areas for capital expenditures include approximately $1.9 billion for infrastructure replacement (rail, ties, ballast), $0.6 billion for locomotives and equipment (modernization, freight car acquisitions), and $0.6 billion for capacity and commercial facilities (siding extensions, intermodal expansion) in 2024.

Better Bets than Union Pacific (UNP)

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to UNP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.7%18.7%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.7%4.7%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.9%6.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.6%2.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
6.0%6.0%-0.4%
UNP_12312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper12312022UNPUnion PacificMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.2%21.6%-9.7%
UNP_6302022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper06302022UNPUnion PacificMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.7%-1.6%-12.1%

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Peer Comparisons for Union Pacific

Peers to compare with:

Financials

UNPCSXNSCCPCNIJBHTMedian
NameUnion Pa.CSX Norfolk .Canadian.Canadian.JB Hunt . 
Mkt Price235.0536.78292.7174.5698.69198.29148.49
Mkt Cap139.268.665.767.961.419.166.8
Rev LTM24,54614,12312,23015,02917,19812,04914,576
Op Inc LTM9,9704,8284,7555,5566,4828265,192
FCF LTM6,0131,5522,0992,3933,4447902,246
FCF 3Y Avg5,4342,5241,4932,2223,5583882,373
CFO LTM9,7274,6154,2495,4896,8171,6105,052
CFO 3Y Avg9,0275,0863,7764,9706,9191,6475,028

Growth & Margins

UNPCSXNSCCPCNIJBHTMedian
NameUnion Pa.CSX Norfolk .Canadian.Canadian.JB Hunt . 
Rev Chg LTM1.1%-3.8%0.5%4.0%0.2%-1.6%0.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg0.2%-1.0%-0.3%22.2%1.8%-6.3%-0.1%
Rev Chg Q2.5%-0.9%1.7%3.2%1.3%-0.5%1.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.6%-0.2%0.4%0.8%0.3%-0.1%0.4%
Op Mgn LTM40.6%34.2%38.9%37.0%37.7%6.9%37.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg39.3%36.5%38.6%35.7%38.4%7.2%37.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.3%-0.7%-3.2%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM39.6%32.7%34.7%36.5%39.6%13.4%35.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg37.1%35.0%30.9%36.9%40.5%13.1%36.0%
FCF/Rev LTM24.5%11.0%17.2%15.9%20.0%6.6%16.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg22.3%17.3%12.2%16.6%20.8%3.2%17.0%

Valuation

UNPCSXNSCCPCNIJBHTMedian
NameUnion Pa.CSX Norfolk .Canadian.Canadian.JB Hunt . 
Mkt Cap139.268.665.767.961.419.166.8
P/S5.74.95.44.53.61.64.7
P/EBIT13.514.814.210.88.822.913.8
P/E19.723.622.215.913.333.321.0
P/CFO14.314.915.512.49.011.813.3
Total Yield7.4%5.3%4.5%7.4%11.1%3.9%6.3%
Dividend Yield2.3%1.1%0.0%1.1%3.6%0.9%1.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.9%3.9%2.6%3.1%5.3%2.8%3.5%
D/E0.20.30.30.40.30.10.3
Net D/E0.20.30.20.30.30.10.3

Returns

UNPCSXNSCCPCNIJBHTMedian
NameUnion Pa.CSX Norfolk .Canadian.Canadian.JB Hunt . 
1M Rtn5.3%7.3%3.4%6.5%9.3%19.0%6.9%
3M Rtn2.6%9.2%0.3%0.9%7.8%49.6%5.2%
6M Rtn4.9%14.1%15.8%-3.9%-1.4%39.7%9.5%
12M Rtn4.7%14.7%25.7%2.4%-1.6%16.9%9.7%
3Y Rtn20.1%23.0%26.7%1.2%-12.4%15.2%17.7%
1M Excs Rtn1.9%4.0%0.0%3.1%5.9%15.6%3.6%
3M Excs Rtn-3.0%4.3%-5.1%-4.3%2.6%45.2%-0.2%
6M Excs Rtn-9.2%0.9%2.8%-18.1%-16.6%26.3%-4.1%
12M Excs Rtn-10.5%0.4%10.8%-12.9%-16.8%1.0%-5.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-59.4%-58.4%-54.6%-78.9%-93.6%-67.8%-63.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Railroad24,11924,87521,80419,53321,708
Total24,11924,87521,80419,53321,708


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$235.05 
Market Cap ($ Bil)139.2 
First Trading Date01/02/1980 
Distance from 52W High-5.4% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$226.36$223.47
DMA Trendindeterminateup
Distance from DMA3.8%5.2%
 3M1YR
Volatility16.6%22.4%
Downside Capture31.4559.90
Upside Capture37.1155.62
Correlation (SPY)24.9%58.1%
UNP Betas & Captures as of 11/30/2025

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.360.390.420.530.670.71
Up Beta0.600.570.600.850.740.72
Down Beta0.580.620.600.620.760.68
Up Capture72%13%31%33%36%34%
Bmk +ve Days12253873141426
Stock +ve Days12213465125373
Down Capture-0%36%26%44%69%91%
Bmk -ve Days7162452107323
Stock -ve Days7202860123376

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
 Comparison of UNP With Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y)
 UNPSector ETFEquityGoldCommoditiesReal EstateBitcoin
Annualized Return7.8%20.9%19.2%71.9%8.9%6.0%-10.4%
Annualized Volatility22.3%18.8%19.5%19.3%15.3%17.1%35.0%
Sharpe Ratio0.260.870.782.690.360.18-0.12
Correlation With Other Assets 66.3%58.2%-8.0%14.1%58.3%8.5%

ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLI, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
 Comparison of UNP With Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y)
 UNPSector ETFEquityGoldCommoditiesReal EstateBitcoin
Annualized Return5.7%14.0%14.9%18.7%11.7%4.8%32.6%
Annualized Volatility22.5%17.2%17.1%15.5%18.7%18.9%48.7%
Sharpe Ratio0.210.660.700.970.510.170.59
Correlation With Other Assets 67.4%54.4%5.3%17.4%51.2%17.0%

ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLI, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
 Comparison of UNP With Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y)
 UNPSector ETFEquityGoldCommoditiesReal EstateBitcoin
Annualized Return14.1%13.4%14.7%14.9%6.9%5.2%69.2%
Annualized Volatility25.4%19.9%18.0%14.8%17.6%20.8%55.8%
Sharpe Ratio0.540.600.700.830.310.220.90
Correlation With Other Assets 75.0%64.6%-2.2%27.8%53.0%13.0%

ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLI, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date12152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity24,315,985
Short Interest: % Change Since 113020259.0%
Average Daily Volume3,470,802
Days-to-Cover Short Interest7.01
Basic Shares Quantity592,400,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/23/2025-2.3%-3.9%-1.8%
7/24/2025-4.5%-2.5%-2.5%
4/24/2025-2.0%-1.9%1.4%
1/23/20255.2%5.8%4.1%
10/24/2024-4.4%-3.8%-1.0%
7/25/2024-0.9%3.9%2.9%
4/25/20245.0%1.3%0.3%
1/25/2024-0.3%0.7%6.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111216
# Negative13128
Median Positive2.9%2.4%4.5%
Median Negative-2.4%-3.1%-2.1%
Max Positive10.4%10.8%12.8%
Max Negative-6.8%-13.1%-12.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251023202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025724202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025424202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024207202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241024202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024725202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023209202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231019202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023726202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023420202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022210202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221020202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022721202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022421202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021204202210-K 12/31/2021