Union Pacific (UNP)
Market Price (4/9/2026): $249.4 | Market Cap: $147.8 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Rail Transportation
Union Pacific (UNP)
Market Price (4/9/2026): $249.4Market Cap: $147.8 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Rail Transportation
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.0%, Dividend Yield is 2.2% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 40% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, CFO LTM is 9.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.5 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 4.9 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, Automation & Robotics, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -32% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.6% Key risksUNP key risks include [1] the ongoing decline in coal transportation demand and [2] volatility in international intermodal volumes, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.0%, Dividend Yield is 2.2% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 40% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, CFO LTM is 9.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.5 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 4.9 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, Automation & Robotics, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -32% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.6% |
| Key risksUNP key risks include [1] the ongoing decline in coal transportation demand and [2] volatility in international intermodal volumes, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Rebounding Freight Volumes and Strong Industry Outlook.
U.S. freight railroads, including Union Pacific, experienced a strong start to 2026 with overall carloads up 5.5% in the first two months compared to last year, including a 6.5% increase in February 2026 alone. This growth was driven by significant gains across 14 of 20 major carload categories, particularly in grain, coal, chemicals, and intermodal shipments. The rail industry's positive outlook is further supported by increasing freight volumes, ongoing investments in rail infrastructure, and expectations of a potential recovery in manufacturing activity.
2. Favorable Analyst Sentiment and Increased Price Targets.
Analysts have shown increased confidence in Union Pacific, with several upgrades and raised price targets during the specified period. For example, Baird upgraded UNP from "Neutral" to "Outperform" on March 6, 2026, significantly increasing its price target to $311 from $239. Similarly, Bernstein reaffirmed an "Outperform" rating and raised its price target to $293 on March 31, 2026. The consensus analyst rating for UNP remains a "Moderate Buy" with an average price target indicating a potential upside of 11-13.2% from recent levels.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.3% change in UNP stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 7.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 230.12 | 249.11 | 8.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 24,546 | 24,510 | -0.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 28.7% | 29.1% | 1.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.3 | 20.7 | 7.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 592 | 593 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.3% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UNP | 8.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 40.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 9.9% | 59.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 6.6% change in UNP stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 3.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 233.77 | 249.11 | 6.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 24,393 | 24,510 | 0.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 28.4% | 29.1% | 2.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.0 | 20.7 | 3.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 594 | 593 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 6.6% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UNP | 6.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 33.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 10.9% | 53.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 7.9% change in UNP stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 4.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 230.80 | 249.11 | 7.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 24,250 | 24,510 | 1.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.8% | 29.1% | 4.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.7 | 20.7 | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 604 | 593 | 2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 7.9% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UNP | 7.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 58.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 31.4% | 66.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 32.6% change in UNP stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 25.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 187.87 | 249.11 | 32.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 24,875 | 24,510 | -1.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 28.1% | 29.1% | 3.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.4 | 20.7 | 25.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 612 | 593 | 3.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 32.6% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UNP | 32.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 47.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 75.7% | 62.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| UNP Return | 23% | -16% | 22% | -5% | 4% | 7% | 33% |
| Peers Return | 24% | -9% | 8% | -9% | 11% | 9% | 37% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -3% | 76% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| UNP Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 50% | 33% | 67% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 37% | 52% | 48% | 55% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| UNP Max Drawdown | -7% | -25% | -10% | -9% | -8% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -5% | -20% | -11% | -14% | -14% | -3% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CSX, NSC, CP, CNI, JBHT. See UNP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/8/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | UNP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 141 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -22.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -59.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 149.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 578 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to CSX, NSC, CP, CNI, JBHT
In The Past
Union Pacific's stock fell -32.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/30/2022. A -32.6% loss requires a 48.4% gain to breakeven.
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About Union Pacific (UNP)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Union Pacific (UNP) is like:
- UPS or FedEx, but for entire trainloads of industrial goods.
- A giant freight trucking company like JB Hunt, but operating trains instead of trucks.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Agricultural Products Transportation: Provides rail transportation for grain and grain products, fertilizers, food and refrigerated products, and coal and renewables.
- Energy Products Transportation: Offers rail services for moving petroleum and liquid petroleum gases.
- Industrial Products Transportation: Transports a wide range of industrial goods including construction products, industrial chemicals, plastics, forest products, specialized products, metals and ores, soda ash, and sand.
- Automotive Transportation: Specializes in the rail shipment of finished automobiles and automotive parts.
- Intermodal Transportation: Delivers transportation solutions for merchandise moved in intermodal containers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Union Pacific (UNP) sells primarily to other companies. Based on the services it provides, its major customers are likely large corporations across various industries that require bulk transportation of raw materials, manufactured goods, and consumer products. While Union Pacific does not publicly disclose a definitive list of its largest individual customers, based on the description of its business segments, major customers likely include:
- Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (NYSE: ADM) - A global leader in agricultural processing, ADM would utilize Union Pacific for transporting grains, oilseeds, and processed agricultural products, including ethanol.
- Bunge Global SA (NYSE: BG) - Another major player in agribusiness and food production, relying on rail for the movement of grains, oilseeds, and other agricultural commodities.
- Dow Inc. (NYSE: DOW) - As a leading global materials science company, Dow would use Union Pacific for shipping industrial chemicals, plastics, and other specialized products.
- Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) - One of the largest independent refiners and producers of renewable fuels, Valero would be a key customer for the transportation of petroleum products, refined fuels, and ethanol.
- Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) - A major automotive manufacturer, Ford would use Union Pacific for transporting finished automobiles and automotive parts across the country.
- J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (NASDAQ: JBHT) - A prominent transportation and logistics company, J.B. Hunt is a major user of intermodal rail services, partnering with railroads like Union Pacific to move freight in containers for numerous retail and manufacturing clients.
- Vulcan Materials Company (NYSE: VMC) - As the largest producer of construction aggregates (crushed stone, sand, and gravel) in the United States, Vulcan Materials would rely on Union Pacific for the bulk transportation of these essential construction materials.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Wabtec Corporation (WAB)
- Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Jim Vena, Chief Executive Officer
Jim Vena leads Union Pacific with more than 40 years of railroad industry experience, known for driving operating and service results. He began his career at Canadian National Railway (CN) as a brakeman and advanced through various roles in Engineering, Mechanical, Operating, Marketing, Strategic Planning, and Labor Relations, ultimately becoming Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. Vena previously served as Union Pacific's Chief Operating Officer from 2019-2020 and as a senior advisor to the chairman in 2021, before returning as CEO in August 2023. He has served on the boards of the Association of American Railroads (AAR), Direct ChassisLink Inc. (DCLI), and FedEx.
Jennifer Hamann, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Jennifer Hamann was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer on January 1, 2020. She is responsible for managing all aspects of Union Pacific's financial activities, including accounting, tax, real estate, investor relations, treasury, audit, and capital planning. Hamann began her career at Union Pacific in 1992 in the corporate audit staff. Over the years, she held various leadership positions within Human Resources, Corporate Treasury, Corporate Audit, and Marketing and Sales. She also serves on the Grupo Ferroviario Mexicano and TTX Company boards of directors, and Steel Dynamic's Board of Directors.
Eric Gehringer, Executive Vice President - Operations
Eric Gehringer has served as Executive Vice President-Operations since 2021. He is responsible for all aspects of Union Pacific's operations, including Transportation, Engineering, Mechanical, Dispatching, Customer Care and Support, and Premium Operations departments. Gehringer joined Union Pacific in 2006 as a management trainee and has held various positions, including senior vice president-Transportation, chief mechanical officer, and chief engineer. Before joining Union Pacific, he held positions at Northwest Airlines and Daimler Chrysler.
Kenny Rocker, Executive Vice President - Marketing & Sales
Kenny Rocker was appointed Executive Vice President-Marketing and Sales in August 2018. In this role, he oversees the company's three major business units: Bulk, Industrial, and Premium, along with Marketing and Sales Operations, Commercial Strategy, and Union Pacific's Mexico business, as well as the Loup Logistics subsidiary. Since joining Union Pacific in 1994, he has held various Marketing and Sales positions, including assignments in Automotive, Chemicals, and the Market Development and Sales Center. Prior to his current role, he served as vice president-Industrial.
Rahul Jalali, Executive Vice President and Chief Information Officer
Rahul Jalali was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Information Officer in November 2020 and promoted to Executive Vice President in June 2023. He serves as the organization's technology thought leader, overseeing Union Pacific's integrated process and systems strategy. Before joining Union Pacific, Jalali spent 23 years with Walmart Inc., where he held increasing leadership roles, most recently as corporate vice president in the technology division serving Walmart International.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to Union Pacific (UNP):
- Economic Downturns and Fluctuations in Freight Demand: Union Pacific's financial performance is highly dependent on the overall health of the U.S. and global economies. Economic slowdowns, recessions, or shifts in industrial production and consumer spending directly lead to reduced demand for the transportation of various goods, including agricultural products, industrial materials, automotive components, and consumer merchandise.
- Regulatory and Environmental Risks, including Declining Coal Traffic and Climate Change Impacts: Union Pacific faces risks from evolving environmental regulations and policies, particularly those impacting the demand for and transport of coal, which has historically been a significant commodity for railroads. Additionally, increasing frequency or severity of extreme weather events associated with climate change (such as floods, droughts, and wildfires) can disrupt rail operations, damage infrastructure, and lead to substantial repair costs and service interruptions.
- Intense Competition from Other Transportation Modes and Potential Technological Disruption: Union Pacific operates in a highly competitive freight transportation market, competing primarily with trucking companies, but also with barges and other rail carriers. Advances in competitor efficiency, capacity, pricing, or emerging technologies like autonomous long-haul trucking could divert freight volumes from Union Pacific, particularly for certain types of cargo or routes.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The emergence and ongoing development of autonomous, long-haul trucking technology poses a clear emerging threat to Union Pacific. If this technology matures and becomes commercially viable at scale, it could significantly reduce operating costs and increase efficiency within the trucking industry. This would intensify competition for Union Pacific by potentially making long-haul freight trucking a more cost-effective and competitive alternative to rail, particularly for intermodal shipments and various types of goods that currently utilize rail transportation.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Union Pacific (UNP) operates within significant addressable markets across the United States for its diverse range of rail transportation services.
Overall U.S. Rail Freight Market
The U.S. railroad market generated a revenue of USD 64,538.0 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 89,352.7 million by 2030, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.5% during 2025-2030. Another estimate for the U.S. rail freight transport market sized it at USD 74.17 billion in 2026, with a projection to reach USD 87.42 billion by 2031 at a CAGR of 3.34%. The U.S. freight rail industry is nearly an $80-billion sector.
Addressable Markets by Product or Service Category
Agricultural Products
- Grain: In 2018, U.S. Class I railroads earned gross revenue of $5.8 billion from transporting grain. In 2023, U.S. railroads transported over 80 million tons of corn, 26 million tons of soybeans, and nearly 26 million tons of wheat. In 2025, U.S. Class I railroads originated 1.38 million rail grain carloads. Agricultural & Food represents a significant portion of the United States Rail Freight Transport market.
- Fertilizers: More than 60% of fertilizer in the United States is transported by rail year-round. The global Agricultural Fertilizer Transportation Services Market, which includes rail transport, was estimated at USD 4.78 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 7.33 billion by 2032.
- Food and Refrigerated Products: The U.S. refrigerated transportation market is projected to increase by USD 9.66 billion, at a CAGR of 12.5% from 2024 to 2029. The U.S. Refrigerated Transport Market Size was valued at USD 4.7 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to exceed USD 6.79 billion by 2033.
Energy Products (Coal, Petroleum, and Liquid Petroleum Gases)
- Coal: The Mining & Minerals segment, which includes coal, held 21.60% of the United States Rail Freight Transport market share in 2025.
- Petroleum and Liquid Petroleum Gases: The liquid bulk cargo type benefits from petrochemical output gains in rail freight.
Industrial Products (Construction Products, Industrial Chemicals, Plastics, Forest Products, Specialized Products, Metals and Ores, Soda Ash, and Sand)
- Industrial Chemicals and Plastics: The U.S. Chemical Logistics Market, which encompasses various transportation modes including rail, is projected to reach USD 86.4 billion in 2025 and expand to USD 121.4 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 3.9%. In 2023, over 2.3 million freight rail cars of plastics, fertilizers, and other dry and liquid bulk chemical products were transported across the U.S. U.S. chemical carloads totaled 1.70 million in 2025.
- Construction Products, Metals and Ores, Forest Products, Soda Ash, and Sand: While these are significant commodities for rail transportation, specific addressable market values solely for their rail transport are not distinctly quantified in the provided search results. However, the Mining & Minerals segment, which includes metals and ores, accounted for 21.60% of the United States Rail Freight Transport market share in 2025.
Automotive Products (Finished Automobiles, Automotive Parts)
- Automotive products are transported via rail freight. While their specific addressable market value for rail transport is not clearly delineated in the provided data, they are a component of the broader rail freight market.
Intermodal
- The North America intermodal freight transportation market was valued at USD 82.2 billion in 2023 and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of over 9% between 2024 and 2032. North America accounted for approximately 34% of the global intermodal freight transportation revenue share in 2023. Intermodal captured 47.20% of the United States Rail Freight Transport market share in 2025. In 2025, U.S. intermodal volume was 14.06 million containers and trailers. Intermodal freight accounts for approximately 25% of the revenue for major U.S. railroads.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Union Pacific (UNP) over the next 2-3 years:- Core Pricing Gains: Union Pacific anticipates achieving core pricing gains that are expected to exceed inflation dollars. This strategy has consistently contributed to revenue growth and is a key focus for the company's financial performance.
- Volume Growth Across Key Segments: The company expects revenue growth to be driven by an increase in freight volumes across its market segments. Specifically, analysts project growth in Industrial Products and Bulk freight revenues. Strategic investments in new customer facilities and increased demand in segments like grain products and coal are expected to support this volume expansion.
- Intermodal Network Expansion and Enhanced Services: Union Pacific is strategically expanding its intermodal footprint by investing in new intermodal ramps and enhancing premium services. These initiatives are designed to meet evolving customer needs, expand market reach, and drive carload and intermodal growth.
- Operational Efficiencies and Technological Innovation: While primarily focused on cost management, continuous improvements in operational efficiency and the adoption of technological advancements contribute to revenue growth indirectly. Productivity enhancements, such as modernized locomotives and autonomous equipment, allow for better service delivery, improved capacity utilization, and a more competitive offering, which can attract and retain customers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- In February 2022, Union Pacific approved a new share repurchase authorization, allowing the company to buy up to 100 million common shares by March 31, 2025.
- The company repurchased 27.1 million shares in 2022 at a total cost of $6.3 billion.
- Union Pacific's share repurchases totaled $705 million in 2023, $1.5 billion in 2024, and $2.679 billion in 2025.
Share Issuance
- Union Pacific has not reported any significant share issuances over the last 3-5 years; instead, the number of outstanding shares has generally declined due to repurchases.
Outbound Investments
- Union Pacific announced a proposed merger with Norfolk Southern in 2025, aimed at strengthening its leadership position in the railroad business and creating synergistic opportunities.
Capital Expenditures
- Union Pacific's capital expenditures were $2.936 billion in 2021, $3.4 billion in 2022, $3.606 billion in 2023, $3.4 billion in 2024, and $3.791 billion in 2025.
- The company plans capital expenditures of $3.3 billion for fiscal year 2026.
- A primary focus of these investments includes upgrading and replacing infrastructure like rail, ties, and ballast, modernizing the locomotive fleet, acquiring freight cars, and expanding capacity and technology projects to enhance operational efficiency and growth.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to UNP.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | NSP | Insperity | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | TNC | Tennant | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | HURN | Huron Consulting | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | TRU | TransUnion | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| 12312022 | UNP | Union Pacific | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.2% | 21.6% | -9.7% |
| 06302022 | UNP | Union Pacific | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.7% | -1.6% | -12.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 166.14 |
| Mkt Cap | 69.8 |
| Rev LTM | 14,585 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,164 |
| FCF LTM | 2,163 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,316 |
| CFO LTM | 4,961 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,015 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | -0.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 37.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 37.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 35.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 35.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 69.8 |
| P/S | 5.1 |
| P/EBIT | 14.5 |
| P/E | 21.8 |
| P/CFO | 14.5 |
| Total Yield | 5.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 11.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 10.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 34.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 35.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 10.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 8.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -2.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -32.8% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $249.11 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 147.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1980 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -6.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $249.33 | $230.72 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -0.1% | 8.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 21.9% | 21.4% |
| Downside Capture | 0.05 | 0.28 |
| Upside Capture | 91.24 | 56.29 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 40.0% | 51.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.86 | 0.52 | 0.76 | 0.53 | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| Up Beta | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.48 | 0.42 | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| Down Beta | 0.57 | 1.00 | 1.02 | 0.66 | 0.82 | 0.64 |
| Up Capture | 65% | 64% | 88% | 51% | 47% | 32% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 71 | 134 | 381 |
| Down Capture | 122% | 23% | 55% | 50% | 72% | 85% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 17 | 27 | 55 | 118 | 369 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with UNP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNP | 19.7% | 21.4% | 0.74 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 46.3% | 17.9% | 1.97 | 60.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 28.9% | 17.3% | 1.35 | 52.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 56.6% | 27.9% | 1.61 | -3.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 24.9% | 16.8% | 1.29 | 8.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.8% | 15.6% | 0.63 | 51.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -14.5% | 44.2% | -0.23 | 13.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with UNP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNP | 4.8% | 22.3% | 0.17 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.3% | 17.3% | 0.60 | 66.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.6% | 17.0% | 0.53 | 53.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.3% | 17.8% | 1.03 | 6.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.8% | 18.8% | 0.52 | 17.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.9% | 18.8% | 0.11 | 51.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 56.5% | 0.29 | 13.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with UNP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNP | 14.5% | 25.2% | 0.55 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.8% | 19.9% | 0.61 | 74.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.9% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 64.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.1% | 15.9% | 0.74 | -0.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 27.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 53.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 12.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/27/2026 | 0.7% | 1.9% | 15.0% |
| 10/23/2025 | -2.3% | -3.9% | -1.8% |
| 7/24/2025 | -4.5% | -2.5% | -2.5% |
| 4/24/2025 | -2.0% | -1.9% | 1.4% |
| 1/23/2025 | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.1% |
| 10/24/2024 | -4.4% | -3.8% | -1.0% |
| 7/25/2024 | -0.9% | 3.9% | 2.9% |
| 4/25/2024 | 5.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 16 |
| # Negative | 13 | 12 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.1% | 2.4% | 4.8% |
| Median Negative | -2.4% | -3.1% | -2.1% |
| Max Positive | 10.4% | 10.8% | 15.0% |
| Max Negative | -6.8% | -13.1% | -12.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/06/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/07/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/09/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/19/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/20/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/10/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/20/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/21/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/21/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/27/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 3.30 Bil | -2.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 3.40 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 EPS Growth | 5.0% | ||||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/23/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Capital Plan | 3.40 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.40 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Share Repurchases | 4.00 Bil | 4.25 Bil | 4.50 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 4.25 Bil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gehringer, Eric J | EVP OPERATIONS | Direct | Sell | 4022026 | 234.93 | 1,999 | 469,625 | 10,800,523 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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