Union Pacific (UNP)
Market Price (12/25/2025): $235.03 | Market Cap: $139.2 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Rail Transportation
Union Pacific (UNP)
Market Price (12/25/2025): $235.03Market Cap: $139.2 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Rail Transportation
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.4%, Dividend Yield is 2.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.2% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -44%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -59% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.2% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 41% | Key risksUNP key risks include [1] the ongoing decline in coal transportation demand and [2] volatility in international intermodal volumes, Show more. | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, CFO LTM is 9.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.0 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, Automation & Robotics, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.4%, Dividend Yield is 2.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.2% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 41% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, CFO LTM is 9.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, Automation & Robotics, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -44%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -59% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.2% |
| Key risksUNP key risks include [1] the ongoing decline in coal transportation demand and [2] volatility in international intermodal volumes, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Union Pacific's Q3 2025 earnings surpassed analyst expectations. The company reported diluted earnings per share of $3.08, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.99 per share, representing an earnings surprise of +3.01% for the quarter ended September 2025. Operating revenues also slightly surpassed estimates.
2. Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern filed a significant merger application in December 2025. On December 19, 2025, Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern submitted an application to the Surface Transportation Board (STB) to combine their railroads, aiming to create the first transcontinental railroad in the U.S. This proposed merger is projected to significantly enhance competition, improve service efficiency by converting thousands of interline services into faster single-line services, and is expected to take an estimated 2 million truckloads of freight off highways annually.
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.6% change in UNP stock from 9/24/2025 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a 1.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| 9242025 | 12242025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 229.02 | 235.05 | 2.63% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 24393.00 | 24546.00 | 0.63% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 28.43% | 28.73% | 1.05% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.62 | 19.75 | 0.64% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 594.10 | 592.40 | 0.29% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.63% |
Market Drivers
9/24/2025 to 12/24/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UNP | 2.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.4% | 26.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 3.4% | 42.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 4.9% change in UNP stock from 6/25/2025 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a 3.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| 6252025 | 12242025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 224.09 | 235.05 | 4.89% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 24246.00 | 24546.00 | 1.24% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.77% | 28.73% | 3.47% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.01 | 19.75 | -1.30% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 601.00 | 592.40 | 1.43% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 4.87% |
Market Drivers
6/25/2025 to 12/24/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UNP | 4.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.0% | 25.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 10.0% | 38.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 4.7% change in UNP stock from 12/24/2024 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a 5.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| 12242024 | 12242025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 224.40 | 235.05 | 4.75% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 24288.00 | 24546.00 | 1.06% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.33% | 28.73% | 5.14% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.54 | 19.75 | -3.88% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 607.60 | 592.40 | 2.50% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 4.68% |
Market Drivers
12/24/2024 to 12/24/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UNP | 4.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.8% | 58.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 18.6% | 66.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 20.1% change in UNP stock from 12/25/2022 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a 15.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 12252022 | 12242025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 195.64 | 235.05 | 20.14% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 24428.00 | 24546.00 | 0.48% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 28.95% | 28.73% | -0.75% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.17 | 19.75 | 15.03% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 620.40 | 592.40 | 4.51% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 19.90% |
Market Drivers
12/25/2023 to 12/24/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| UNP | 1.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 48.9% | 50.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 42.7% | 64.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| UNP Return | 18% | 23% | -16% | 22% | -5% | 5% | 48% |
| Peers Return | 26% | 24% | -9% | 8% | -9% | 12% | 60% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 18% | 115% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| UNP Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 33% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 70% | 53% | 37% | 52% | 48% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| UNP Max Drawdown | -37% | -7% | -25% | -10% | -9% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -5% | -20% | -11% | -14% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CSX, NSC, CP, CNI, JBHT. See UNP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/24/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | UNP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 141 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -22.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -59.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 149.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 578 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to CSX, CP, NSC, CNI, UNP
In The Past
Union Pacific's stock fell -32.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/30/2022. A -32.6% loss requires a 48.4% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
- It's like **a utility company, but for moving vast amounts of freight by rail.**
- Think of it as **AT&T, but for freight transportation across the country,** leveraging a massive physical network.
- It's similar to **Kinder Morgan, but operating railroads for diverse goods instead of pipelines for energy.**
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Intermodal Freight Transportation: Provides bulk transportation of shipping containers and truck trailers, often linking ports to inland distribution centers.
- Agricultural Product Transportation: Moves various farm-related commodities, including grains, processed foods, beverages, and fertilizers.
- Automotive Product Transportation: Specializes in the shipment of finished automobiles, trucks, and automotive parts for manufacturers and dealerships.
- Chemical Product Transportation: Carries a broad array of chemical products, such as plastics, industrial chemicals, petroleum products, and fertilizers.
- Industrial Product Transportation: Handles the movement of diverse industrial goods, including construction materials, metals, minerals, forest products, and paper.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Union Pacific (UNP) is a freight railroad company, meaning it primarily sells its services to other businesses rather than individuals. Due to the diversified nature of freight transportation, railroads typically serve thousands of customers across various industries, and no single customer usually accounts for a significant percentage (e.g., 10% or more) of their total revenue.
However, Union Pacific has numerous large corporate customers and partners that rely heavily on its rail network for the transport of goods across North America. These companies represent key sectors that form the backbone of Union Pacific's freight volumes.
Here are some of the types of companies that are major customers or significant partners for Union Pacific, along with examples of prominent public companies within those categories:
- Intermodal Logistics Companies: These companies manage the movement of freight in containers and trailers, often for retail goods, e-commerce, and parcel delivery, leveraging rail for long-haul transport.
- Automotive Manufacturers: Major car manufacturers rely on rail to transport finished vehicles, parts, and components across the country to dealerships and assembly plants.
- Chemical and Petrochemical Companies: These companies ship a wide range of products, including plastics, fertilizers, and industrial chemicals, often in specialized rail cars.
- Agricultural Companies: Major agribusinesses and food processors use rail to transport grains, fertilizers, processed foods, and refrigerated goods.
- Retail and E-commerce Giants: While often working through intermodal partners, large retailers and e-commerce companies are significant ultimate users of rail for their extensive supply chains.
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- Wabtec Corporation (WAB)
- Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
- Siemens AG (SIEGY)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Jim Vena Chief Executive Officer
Jim Vena was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Union Pacific in August 2023, bringing over 40 years of experience in the railroad industry. He began his career at Canadian National Railway (CN) as a laborer and progressed through various roles in Engineering, Mechanical, and Operating departments, even operating trains as a locomotive engineer. He later held management positions in Operations, Marketing, Strategic Planning, and Labor Relations at CN, ultimately serving as executive vice president and chief operating officer. Vena previously served as Union Pacific's chief operating officer from 2019 to 2020, during which he led a team that achieved significant efficiency savings and delivered the company's best service. He also served as a senior advisor to the chairman in 2021 before returning as CEO. Vena has served as chairman of the Association of American Railroads (AAR) and as a board member for Direct ChassisLink Inc. (DCLI), a privately held company, and FedEx. There is no information indicating he founded or sold other companies, or has a pattern of managing private equity-backed companies.
Jennifer Hamann Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Jennifer Hamann was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Union Pacific on January 1, 2020. In this role, she is responsible for all aspects of the company's financial activities, including accounting, tax, real estate, investor relations, treasury, audit, and capital planning. Hamann joined Union Pacific in 1992 as a member of the corporate audit staff. Her extensive career at the company includes leadership positions in Human Resources, Investor Relations (Assistant Vice President), Corporate Audit (General Auditor), Marketing and Sales (Vice President and General Manager-Automotive), and Finance (Vice President-Planning and Analysis, Senior Vice President-Finance). She holds an MBA from the University of Nebraska at Omaha and is a Certified Public Accountant. Hamann serves on the boards of Grupo Ferroviario Mexicano and TTX Company, and was appointed as an independent director to the Steel Dynamics Board of Directors in 2023. While she was involved with Missouri-Pacific Corp. in an Investor Relations capacity, which was later acquired, there is no indication she founded or managed other companies that were sold, or has a pattern of managing private equity-backed companies.
Eric Gehringer Executive Vice President, Operations
Eric Gehringer has served as Executive Vice President-Operations since 2021, overseeing all aspects of Union Pacific's operations. He joined the company in 2006 as a management trainee and has held various roles, including senior vice president-Transportation, Operating's chief mechanical officer, and chief engineer. Prior to joining Union Pacific, Gehringer held positions at Northwest Airlines and Daimler Chrysler.
Rahul Jalali Executive Vice President, Chief Information Officer
Rahul Jalali was appointed senior vice president and chief information officer in November 2020, and was promoted to Executive Vice President in June 2023. He leads the company's technology strategy, focusing on innovation, speed-to-market, and optimizing business models through technology. Before Union Pacific, Jalali spent 23 years at Walmart Inc., where he held increasing leadership roles, most recently as corporate vice president in the technology division for Walmart International. He specialized in developing global technology solutions and leveraging data, automation, and machine learning. Jalali is also an active member of the advisory committee of the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA).
Kenny Rocker Executive Vice President, Marketing and Sales
Kenny Rocker was appointed Executive Vice President-Marketing and Sales in August 2018. He is responsible for Union Pacific's three main business units: Bulk, Industrial, and Premium, as well as Marketing and Sales Operations, Commercial Strategy, and the company's Mexico business. Rocker also oversees the Loup Logistics subsidiary. He joined Union Pacific in 1994 and has held various positions within Marketing and Sales, including vice president-Industrial.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Union Pacific (UNP) primarily stem from its susceptibility to broader economic conditions and shifts in market demand, significant operational challenges including labor relations and safety, and evolving regulatory and environmental landscapes.
- Economic Conditions and Market Demand Fluctuations: Union Pacific's revenue and freight volumes are highly sensitive to the overall economic environment, including slowdowns, inflation, and interest rate changes, which can lead to reduced demand for transportation services. A significant risk is the ongoing decline in coal transportation demand due to high inventory levels and competition from natural gas, as well as the long-term transition away from coal in the energy mix. Furthermore, volatility in international intermodal volumes, driven by changing consumer preferences, logistics trends, and international trade uncertainties, presents a considerable challenge to top-line growth.
- Operational Risks and Cost Pressures: The rail industry, and Union Pacific specifically, faces recurring operational challenges and cost pressures. Labor relations are a critical risk, with the potential for strikes, labor shortages, and costly contract negotiations impacting service quality, operational performance, and profitability, given that a significant portion of Union Pacific's workforce is unionized. Additionally, rising costs for labor, materials, and fuel can significantly affect operational efficiency and profitability. Maintaining safety is also paramount, as personal injuries and derailment incidents, despite ongoing efforts, can lead to disruptions and increased expenditures.
- Regulatory and Environmental Changes: Union Pacific is exposed to risks associated with evolving regulatory and environmental factors. Changes in transportation regulations, taxes, or environmental policies, particularly those related to carbon emissions and greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions, could substantially increase operating costs due to the company's reliance on diesel fuel. Geopolitical tensions and shifts in trade policies also introduce uncertainties that can disrupt global supply chains and affect freight volumes, especially for commodities tied to international markets. The long-term transition risk away from fossil fuels, while being addressed by the company through investments in renewable diesel and wind infrastructure, remains a structural headwind.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Shift in Global Supply Chains and Nearshoring/Reshoring: Growing geopolitical tensions, a desire for supply chain resilience following disruptions (such as COVID-19), and government incentives are prompting companies to relocate manufacturing and sourcing closer to end markets (e.g., from Asia to North America or Mexico). This trend could reduce the volume of long-haul intermodal traffic originating from West Coast ports, which is a significant component of Union Pacific's freight business, as goods would require less extensive domestic rail transport if produced closer to consumption.
- Advancements in Autonomous and Electric Trucking: Significant investment and technological progress in autonomous driving and heavy-duty electric vehicle technology for long-haul trucking present an emerging threat. If these technologies mature and achieve widespread adoption, they could substantially reduce operating costs (primarily labor and fuel) and increase efficiency for trucking companies, potentially making truck transport more competitive against rail for certain freight segments that currently rely on rail for cost-effectiveness over long distances.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) primarily provides freight transportation services across 23 states in the western two-thirds of the United States, with connections to Canadian and Mexican rail systems. The addressable markets for its main products and services are primarily within North America.
Addressable Markets for Union Pacific's Main Products or Services:
- North American Rail Freight Market: The North America rail freight transportation market is forecast to increase by USD 37.53 billion at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.3% between 2024 and 2029. Another estimate valued the North America Rail Transport Market at USD 84.82 billion in 2024, projected to reach USD 128.11 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 4.31%. The North America railroad market is expected to reach a projected revenue of US$129,684.6 million by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 5.3% from 2025 to 2030.
- U.S. Rail Freight Transport Market: The United States rail freight transport market size is estimated at USD 71.77 billion in 2025 and is forecast to expand at a 3.39% CAGR from 2025 to 2030. In 2024, the U.S. railroad market generated a revenue of USD 64,538.0 million and is expected to reach USD 89,352.7 million by 2030, with a CAGR of 5.5% from 2025 to 2030. Freight rail contributed over 95% of the USD 113 billion in total rail transportation revenues in the U.S. in 2022.
- North American Intermodal Freight Market: The North American intermodal freight market is the largest in the world, with an estimated value of USD 51 billion. The global intermodal freight transportation market size was estimated at USD 42.9 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 93.51 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 12.1% from 2024 to 2030. North America held the largest share of 35.6% in this market in 2023.
- Industrial Freight: null
- Bulk Freight: null
AI Analysis | Feedback
Union Pacific (UNP) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key strategies: * Increased Volume and Core Pricing Gains: Union Pacific's third-quarter 2024 results already demonstrated revenue growth driven by increased volume and core pricing gains. The company's management highlighted that improved safety and service performance supported this solid revenue growth. Looking ahead, Union Pacific anticipates that revenue, excluding fuel surcharge revenue, will grow faster than volume (excluding coal) over the next three years. They also expect pricing dollars to be accretive to the operating ratio starting in 2025. * Operational Excellence and Service Improvements: A core component of Union Pacific's strategy is "Safety, Service and Operational Excellence," which is viewed as a direct driver of growth. Continuous improvements in service and operational efficiency are expected to support increased volume handling and overall revenue expansion. * Growth in Specific Business Segments: While overall revenue growth is anticipated, particular segments are expected to contribute significantly. For example, in the first quarter of 2025, international container shipments and grain were noted as main contributors to increased traffic volume, offsetting declines in other areas like coal and oil. This suggests a focus on growing these more robust segments. * Strategic Capital Investments: Union Pacific plans annual capital investments of approximately $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion over the next three years. These investments are likely aimed at enhancing infrastructure, technology, and operational capabilities to support future volume growth and efficiency, ultimately contributing to revenue expansion. * Customer Focus and Market Outpacing: The company's strategy involves delivering for its customers and shareholders, aiming for sustainable long-term success. Union Pacific expects its volume (excluding coal) to outpace the markets it serves over the next three years, indicating a strategy to capture a larger share of the freight transportation market.AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- In February 2022, Union Pacific authorized a new share repurchase program to buy back up to 100 million shares of its common stock by March 31, 2025.
- The company repurchased $6.282 billion in shares in 2022, $705 million in 2023, and $1.5 billion in 2024.
- In February 2025, Union Pacific initiated an accelerated share repurchase program worth $1.5 billion and expects total share repurchases of $4.0 billion to $4.5 billion for 2025. Share repurchases were paused in October 2025 due to the Norfolk Southern merger.
Share Issuance
No significant share issuances by Union Pacific have been reported over the last 3-5 years.
Inbound Investments
No large inbound investments by third-parties in Union Pacific have been reported over the last 3-5 years.
Outbound Investments
No strategic outbound investments in other companies by Union Pacific have been reported over the last 3-5 years.
Capital Expenditures
- Union Pacific's capital expenditures were $2.9 billion in 2021, $3.6 billion in 2022, $3.7 billion in 2023, and $3.4 billion in 2024.
- The company's planned capital expenditure for 2025 is $3.4 billion, with an expectation to invest between $3.4 billion and $3.7 billion annually over the next three years (2025-2027).
- Primary focus areas for capital expenditures include approximately $1.9 billion for infrastructure replacement (rail, ties, ballast), $0.6 billion for locomotives and equipment (modernization, freight car acquisitions), and $0.6 billion for capacity and commercial facilities (siding extensions, intermodal expansion) in 2024.
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Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to UNP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.7% | 18.7% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.7% | 4.7% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.9% | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.6% | 2.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 6.0% | 6.0% | -0.4% |
| 12312022 | UNP | Union Pacific | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.2% | 21.6% | -9.7% |
| 06302022 | UNP | Union Pacific | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.7% | -1.6% | -12.1% |
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Peer Comparisons for Union Pacific
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 148.49 |
| Mkt Cap | 66.8 |
| Rev LTM | 14,576 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,192 |
| FCF LTM | 2,246 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,373 |
| CFO LTM | 5,052 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,028 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 37.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 37.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 35.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 36.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.0% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $235.05 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 139.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1980 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -5.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $226.36 | $223.47 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | up |
| Distance from DMA | 3.8% | 5.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 16.6% | 22.4% |
| Downside Capture | 31.45 | 59.90 |
| Upside Capture | 37.11 | 55.62 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 24.9% | 58.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.36 | 0.39 | 0.42 | 0.53 | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| Up Beta | 0.60 | 0.57 | 0.60 | 0.85 | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| Down Beta | 0.58 | 0.62 | 0.60 | 0.62 | 0.76 | 0.68 |
| Up Capture | 72% | 13% | 31% | 33% | 36% | 34% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 25 | 38 | 73 | 141 | 426 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 21 | 34 | 65 | 125 | 373 |
| Down Capture | -0% | 36% | 26% | 44% | 69% | 91% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 52 | 107 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 20 | 28 | 60 | 123 | 376 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Comparison of UNP With Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNP | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 7.8% | 20.9% | 19.2% | 71.9% | 8.9% | 6.0% | -10.4% |
| Annualized Volatility | 22.3% | 18.8% | 19.5% | 19.3% | 15.3% | 17.1% | 35.0% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.26 | 0.87 | 0.78 | 2.69 | 0.36 | 0.18 | -0.12 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 66.3% | 58.2% | -8.0% | 14.1% | 58.3% | 8.5% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLI, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Comparison of UNP With Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNP | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 5.7% | 14.0% | 14.9% | 18.7% | 11.7% | 4.8% | 32.6% |
| Annualized Volatility | 22.5% | 17.2% | 17.1% | 15.5% | 18.7% | 18.9% | 48.7% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.21 | 0.66 | 0.70 | 0.97 | 0.51 | 0.17 | 0.59 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 67.4% | 54.4% | 5.3% | 17.4% | 51.2% | 17.0% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLI, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Comparison of UNP With Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNP | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 14.1% | 13.4% | 14.7% | 14.9% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 69.2% |
| Annualized Volatility | 25.4% | 19.9% | 18.0% | 14.8% | 17.6% | 20.8% | 55.8% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.54 | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.83 | 0.31 | 0.22 | 0.90 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 75.0% | 64.6% | -2.2% | 27.8% | 53.0% | 13.0% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLI, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/23/2025 | -2.3% | -3.9% | -1.8% |
| 7/24/2025 | -4.5% | -2.5% | -2.5% |
| 4/24/2025 | -2.0% | -1.9% | 1.4% |
| 1/23/2025 | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.1% |
| 10/24/2024 | -4.4% | -3.8% | -1.0% |
| 7/25/2024 | -0.9% | 3.9% | 2.9% |
| 4/25/2024 | 5.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 1/25/2024 | -0.3% | 0.7% | 6.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 16 |
| # Negative | 13 | 12 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.9% | 2.4% | 4.5% |
| Median Negative | -2.4% | -3.1% | -2.1% |
| Max Positive | 10.4% | 10.8% | 12.8% |
| Max Negative | -6.8% | -13.1% | -12.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2072025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2092024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10192023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7262023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4202023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2102023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10202022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7212022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4212022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2042022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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