Elevance Health (ELV)
Market Price (10/23/2026): $444.88 | Market Cap: $96.4 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Managed Health Care
Elevance Health (ELV)
Market Price (10/23/2026): $444.88Market Cap: $96.4 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Managed Health Care
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, FCF Yield is 6.8% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 8.1 Bil Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 7.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.5 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Telehealth Platforms, Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -75% | Key risksELV key risks include [1] margin pressure from rising medical costs within its Medicare and Medicaid plans, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, FCF Yield is 6.8% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 8.1 Bil |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 7.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.5 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Telehealth Platforms, Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -75% |
| Key risksELV key risks include [1] margin pressure from rising medical costs within its Medicare and Medicaid plans, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Elevance Health (ELV) stock has gained about 15% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Elevance Health reported robust third-quarter (fiscal Q3 2026, which ended September 30, 2026) adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $6.99, significantly surpassing analyst expectations of $4.70, representing a 48.7% beat. This strong performance led the company to raise its full-year 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance to at least $29.00, an increase from its prior outlook, and project at least 12% adjusted diluted EPS growth for 2027.
2. The improved financial results were underpinned by solid operating outperformance across key business segments, including Medicaid, Medicare Advantage, and Individual ACA markets. Approximately $0.50 per share of the Q3 2026 EPS beat stemmed from this operating strength, which was further supported by better medical cost management, evidenced by a 70 basis point improvement in the benefit expense ratio to 90.6% year-over-year.
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Elevance Health (ELV) stock has gained about 15% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Elevance Health reported robust third-quarter (fiscal Q3 2026, which ended September 30, 2026) adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $6.99, significantly surpassing analyst expectations of $4.70, representing a 48.7% beat. This strong performance led the company to raise its full-year 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance to at least $29.00, an increase from its prior outlook, and project at least 12% adjusted diluted EPS growth for 2027.
2. The improved financial results were underpinned by solid operating outperformance across key business segments, including Medicaid, Medicare Advantage, and Individual ACA markets. Approximately $0.50 per share of the Q3 2026 EPS beat stemmed from this operating strength, which was further supported by better medical cost management, evidenced by a 70 basis point improvement in the benefit expense ratio to 90.6% year-over-year.
3. Positive sentiment from equity analysts contributed to the stock's upward trend. For instance, Barclays raised its price target for Elevance Health shares from $457.00 to $469.00 on October 7, 2026, while maintaining an "overweight" rating, reflecting confidence in the company's trajectory.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 15.6% change in ELV stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 16.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 385.05 | 445.28 | 15.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 200,415 | 201,831 | 0.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.6% | 2.5% | -2.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.1 | 18.8 | 16.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 220 | 217 | 1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 15.6% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ELV | 15.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.3% | 6.0% |
| Sector (XLV) | 14.3% | 24.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 53.4% change in ELV stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 65.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 290.30 | 445.28 | 53.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 199,125 | 201,831 | 1.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.8% | 2.5% | -10.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.3 | 18.8 | 65.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 221 | 217 | 2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 53.4% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ELV | 53.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.8% | 2.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 24.2% | 29.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 40.5% change in ELV stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 41.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 316.82 | 445.28 | 40.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 189,254 | 201,831 | 6.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.8% | 2.5% | -10.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.3 | 18.8 | 41.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 225 | 217 | 4.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 40.5% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ELV | 40.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.6% | 11.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | 31.9% | 35.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 7.5% change in ELV stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 21.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 414.13 | 445.28 | 7.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 165,712 | 201,831 | 21.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.8% | 2.5% | -33.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.5 | 18.8 | 20.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 237 | 217 | 9.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 7.5% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ELV | 7.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 84.8% | 12.2% |
| Sector (XLV) | 47.5% | 44.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ELV Return | 46% | 12% | -7% | -21% | -3% | 26% | 47% |
| Peers Return | 33% | 11% | -8% | -22% | 5% | 40% | 55% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 104% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ELV Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 33% | 67% | 67% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 58% | 43% | 42% | 55% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ELV Max Drawdown | -15% | -16% | -19% | -34% | -39% | -26% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -19% | -23% | -35% | -38% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: UNH, CVS, CI, HUM, CNC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ELV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 202 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 213 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 316 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -23.4% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.5% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 235 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.2% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -67.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 204.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1698 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Elevance Health's stock fell -4.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 4.8% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | ELV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 213 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 316 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -23.4% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.5% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 235 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -67.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 204.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1698 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Elevance Health's stock fell -4.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 4.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Elevance Health (ELV)
Elevance Health Inc. (ELV) operates as a leading health benefits company dedicated to improving the health and well-being of individuals and communities. Its core mission is to support consumers throughout their entire care journey, ensuring they have access to the necessary medical care, support, and resources to lead healthier lives.
The company offers a comprehensive portfolio of integrated health solutions. These include traditional medical benefits, digital health tools, pharmacy services, behavioral health programs, and various clinical and care management solutions. These diverse offerings are designed to provide holistic support, covering a wide spectrum of healthcare needs.
Elevance Health serves a substantial market, reaching approximately 118 million people across the United States. Its primary customers are individuals, families, and communities who rely on its extensive network and services to manage their health and navigate the complex healthcare landscape.
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Elevance Health is a large health benefits provider, similar to UnitedHealth Group.
Think of it as a major health insurer and care facilitator, much like Cigna or Aetna.
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- Health Benefit Plans: Elevance Health provides a portfolio of medical plans and health benefits that connect individuals, families, and communities to necessary medical care.
- Pharmacy Solutions: The company offers services related to prescription drug management, likely including pharmacy benefit management (PBM) and access to essential medications.
- Behavioral Health Services: Elevance Health provides solutions focused on mental health and substance use disorder treatment and support.
- Clinical and Care Management Programs: These solutions encompass a range of services designed to support the entire care journey, including disease management, care coordination, and wellness programs.
- Digital Health Solutions: Elevance Health leverages digital tools and platforms to provide convenient access to health resources, virtual care, and personalized health management.
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Elevance Health (ELV) operates as a health benefits company, primarily serving individuals through various channels. While it contracts with employers and government entities, its core focus, as indicated by serving "approximately 118 million people," is on providing health solutions directly to individuals and their families. Therefore, its major customer categories are best described by the types of individuals it serves:
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Individuals covered by employer-sponsored plans: These are employees and their dependents whose health benefits are provided through their employers, with Elevance Health acting as the plan administrator and insurer. This represents a significant portion of its commercial business.
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Individuals enrolled in government-sponsored programs: This category includes seniors participating in Elevance Health's Medicare Advantage and Medicare Part D plans, as well as individuals covered by Medicaid plans administered by Elevance Health on behalf of various state governments.
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Individuals purchasing directly: These are people who purchase health insurance plans directly from Elevance Health, often through public health insurance marketplaces established by the Affordable Care Act (ACA), or sometimes off-exchange.
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Gail Boudreaux, President and Chief Executive Officer
Gail Boudreaux was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Elevance Health in November 2017. Prior to joining Elevance Health, she founded her own healthcare consulting company, GKB Global Health, LLC, in 2015. She served as CEO of UnitedHealthcare, the largest division of UnitedHealth Group, from January 2011 to November 2014, where she was responsible for approximately $120 billion in revenue and managed over 60,000 employees. Her extensive career in the healthcare industry also includes executive leadership positions at Health Care Service Corporation and Aetna, Inc., and she was President of Blue Cross/Blue Shield of Illinois. Her background highlights over three decades of experience in leading multi-billion dollar businesses within the health insurance sector.
Mark Kaye, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Mark Kaye serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Elevance Health. In this role, he is responsible for overseeing the company's financial operations, including financial planning and analysis, treasury, investor relations, tax, and internal audit. Effective February 26, 2026, his responsibilities will expand to include oversight of Carelon, Elevance Health's healthcare services operations.
Peter Haytaian, Executive Vice President and President of Carelon and CarelonRx
Peter Haytaian is Executive Vice President and President of Carelon and CarelonRx, where he is responsible for the strategic direction, performance, and growth of Carelon's diversified assets and services, including pharmacy, behavioral health, complex and chronic care, and advanced analytics. He previously held roles within Elevance Health as Executive Vice President and President of Commercial Health Benefits, and Executive Vice President and President of Government Health Benefits. Mr. Haytaian will transition from this role effective May 4, 2026, to serve as a Special Advisor through December 31, 2026.
Felicia Norwood, Executive Vice President and Chief Health Benefits Officer
Felicia Norwood is Executive Vice President and Chief Health Benefits Officer. Effective February 26, 2026, she will assume responsibility for a consolidated Health Benefits organization, combining the company's Commercial and Government health benefits businesses under a single structure. She previously served as the company's government business division president since June 2018, overseeing the strategic direction and operations of its Medicaid, Medicare, and federal government solutions businesses.
Morgan Kendrick, Executive Vice President and President of Commercial and Specialty Health Benefits
Morgan Kendrick serves as Executive Vice President and President of Commercial and Specialty Health Benefits, a position he has held since October 2021. He is responsible for the strategic direction, performance, and growth of Elevance Health's commercial business, which includes national accounts, individual and local group business, and specialty products. Mr. Kendrick has been with the company since 1995, having held numerous leadership roles in commercial businesses, including President of Anthem National Accounts/Central Markets and President and General Manager for Anthem Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Georgia.
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Key Risks to Elevance Health (ELV)
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Regulatory Scrutiny and Potential Sanctions related to Medicare Advantage
Elevance Health faces significant risk due to regulatory scrutiny and potential sanctions from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS). Specifically, the company received a notice from CMS threatening intermediate sanctions, including the suspension of new enrollments for certain Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug plans and restrictions on marketing activities, effective March 31, 2026. These sanctions stem from alleged noncompliance with risk-adjustment data submission rules and reporting overpayments. This regulatory action poses a direct threat to a key growth area for Elevance Health and is considered a central overhang for the company.
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Rising Medical Costs and Healthcare Utilization
The company is exposed to the risk of rising medical costs and increased healthcare utilization, particularly within its Medicare Advantage and Medicaid plans. This trend has put pressure on profitability, leading to challenges in managing costs effectively. Persistent medical cost pressures and adverse risk-pool changes have negatively impacted margins in Medicaid and individual exchange businesses.
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Competitive Pressures and Dynamic Market Landscape
Elevance Health operates in a highly competitive and dynamic U.S. health insurance sector. The company faces intense competition from large, diversified managed care organizations, as well as new entrants leveraging technology. Challenges include maintaining competitive pricing and underwriting, adapting to continuous reshaping of the industry through mergers and alliances, and navigating shifts in market share. The need for innovation in product design and digital health is crucial for differentiation in this environment.
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The aggressive entry and expansion of major technology and retail giants (such as Amazon and Walmart) into various facets of the healthcare delivery and benefits ecosystem. These companies are leveraging their vast resources, technological prowess, and customer-centric models to offer services like pharmacy benefits, direct-to-consumer primary care, telehealth, and other clinical solutions. This directly challenges traditional health benefits companies like Elevance Health by disrupting established value chains, potentially offering more streamlined and cost-effective alternatives, and shifting consumer expectations for convenience and digital integration in healthcare.
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Elevance Health (ELV) operates in several large addressable markets within the United States.
The company's main products and services and their estimated market sizes in the U.S. are as follows:
- Health Benefits/Health and Medical Insurance: The U.S. health and medical insurance market is projected to be approximately USD 1.65 trillion in 2026, with a further projection to reach USD 2.15 trillion by 2031. Other estimates for the U.S. health insurance market include USD 613.0 billion in 2024, growing to USD 1,161.7 billion by 2032, and USD 469.8 billion in 2025, estimated to reach USD 641.1 billion by 2034. The U.S. group health insurance market alone was estimated at USD 1.41 trillion in 2024.
- Pharmacy Benefits Management (PBM): The U.S. pharmacy benefit management market is estimated to be approximately USD 626.47 billion in 2026. Another estimate for the U.S. PBM market indicates a size of USD 504.08 billion in 2026, projected to reach around USD 1,041.11 billion by 2034. The market was valued at USD 587.4 billion in 2024 and is projected to be USD 638.0 billion in 2025.
- Behavioral Health Services: The U.S. behavioral health market was valued at approximately USD 89 billion in 2024 (other sources indicate USD 87.82 billion in 2024 or USD 83.78 billion). This market is expected to grow to around USD 165.4 billion by 2034.
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Elevance Health (ELV) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
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Growth in the Carelon Segment: The Carelon segment, encompassing CarelonRx (pharmacy benefits) and Carelon Services, is consistently highlighted as a significant driver of revenue growth. This growth is fueled by increased pharmacy product revenue, the expansion of Carelon Services' risk-based solutions, and strategic acquisitions within this segment.
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Medicare Advantage (MA) Membership Growth: Elevance Health is actively pursuing and achieving substantial growth in its Medicare Advantage membership. This expansion in MA enrollment is a key component of its Health Benefits segment's revenue strategy.
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Higher Premium Yields and Pricing Discipline: The company benefits from higher premium yields and disciplined pricing strategies within its Health Benefits segment. This effective management of premium rates for its core insurance offerings contributes to top-line growth.
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Strategic Acquisitions: Elevance Health emphasizes strategic acquisitions as a crucial element of its growth strategy. These acquisitions, particularly in diversified health services and technology, are intended to bolster its capabilities and diversify revenue streams. Examples include the acquisition of CareBridge (home-based care) and Paragon Healthcare (infusion services).
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Expansion of Affordable Care Act (ACA) Plans and New Primary Care Platforms: The company is expanding its Affordable Care Act (ACA) plans into new states and exploring broader market expansion. Additionally, initiatives like the launch of Mosaic Health, a national primary care delivery platform, contribute to new service offerings and market opportunities.
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Share Repurchases
- Elevance Health repurchased $2.605 billion of its common stock in 2025.
- The company executed share buybacks of $2.9 billion in 2024 and $2.676 billion in 2023.
- As of December 31, 2025, Elevance Health had approximately $6.7 billion of Board-approved share repurchase authorization remaining.
Share Issuance
- Elevance Health's shares outstanding have consistently declined over the past few years, from 0.247 billion at the end of 2021 to 0.222 billion at the end of 2025, indicating net share repurchases rather than issuance.
Outbound Investments
- Elevance Health actively pursues acquisitions to expand its reach and revenue, including CareBridge (a home-based care company) acquired in late 2024, and Paragon Healthcare (an infusion services company) in January 2024.
- These recent acquisitions, including CareBridge and Paragon Healthcare, are projected to contribute $1.2 billion in annual revenue by 2026.
- In 2021, the company expanded its reach through the acquisition of MMM.
Capital Expenditures
- For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, Elevance Health's Capital Expenditures amounted to approximately $1.1 billion.
- The company makes targeted investments to scale Carelon's capabilities, support its workforce, and accelerate technology adoption across the enterprise.
- Significant investment is also directed towards advanced technologies to achieve ambitious revenue targets from digital solutions and strengthening its operational foundation.
Peer Outperformance in Managed Health Care
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care Distributors | 6 | 15.4% | 55.7% | 98.5% | CAH 471% · MCK 396% · COR 189% |
| Health Care Services | 20 | 19.4% | 46.6% | 16.2% | HIMS 284% · RDNT 123% · DGX 83% |
| Health Care Facilities | 24 | 1.1% | 19.2% | 5.8% | NHC 289% · THC 283% · ENSG 150% |
| Managed Health Care ← | 8 | 39.7% | 2.1% | 3.2% | OSCR 96% · HQY 49% · ELV 11% |
| Health Care Equipment | 50 | -3.1% | 6.3% | -12.6% | UFPT 374% · GKOS 293% · TMDX 163% |
| Pharmaceuticals | 61 | -11.9% | 5.1% | -33.1% | LQDA 1006% · KNSA 654% · CORT 474% |
| Health Care Supplies | 11 | 20.8% | -3.2% | -38.6% | LNTH 341% · HAE 62% · MMSI 30% |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services | 109 | -10.1% | -10.2% | -67.3% | MEDP 250% · NTRA 249% · IRTC 76% |
| Biotechnology | 364 | -22.7% | -23.5% | -80.8% | DNTH 1103% · ELVN 1075% · TRVI 961% |
| Health Care Technology | 22 | -26.5% | -63.2% | -82.3% | VEEV 1% · DOCS -48% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 368.29 |
| Mkt Cap | 89.7 |
| Rev LTM | 242,137 |
| Op Inc LTM | 11,462 |
| FCF LTM | 9,032 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5,552 |
| CFO LTM | 10,013 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 6,601 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -4.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -4.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 89.7 |
| P/S | 0.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 13.5 |
| P/EBIT | 13.1 |
| P/E | 21.8 |
| P/CFO | 10.4 |
| Total Yield | 6.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 12.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 8.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 25.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 26.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 2.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 14.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 17.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 10.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -75.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Benefits | 167,094 | 150,275 | 148,571 | 138,484 | 121,728 |
| CarelonRx | 43,400 | 35,961 | 33,835 | 28,526 | 25,431 |
| Carelon Services | 28,316 | 17,961 | 14,147 | 12,860 | 10,130 |
| Net investment income | 2,194 | 2,051 | 1,825 | 1,485 | 1,378 |
| Corporate & Other | 463 | 309 | 479 | 399 | 95 |
| Net losses on financial instruments | -653 | -445 | -694 | -550 | 318 |
| Eliminations | -41,689 | -29,302 | -26,823 | -24,609 | -20,441 |
| Total | 199,125 | 176,810 | 171,340 | 156,595 | 138,639 |
| $ Mil | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCB | 4,000 | |||
| 4SB | 972 | |||
| Health Care | 4,288 | 3,459 | 1,505 | |
| Specialty | 524 | 388 | 101 | |
| Total | 4,972 | 4,812 | 3,847 | 1,606 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $445.28 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 96.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/29/2006 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $406.55 | $368.27 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 9.5% | 20.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 24.8% | 35.0% |
| Downside Capture | -3.10 | 4.35 |
| Upside Capture | 70.62 | 30.34 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 15.6% | 12.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.18 | 0.14 | 0.20 | 0.08 | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| Up Beta | -0.08 | -0.35 | 0.18 | -0.22 | 0.06 | 0.34 |
| Down Beta | -2.89 | -1.12 | 1.31 | 0.76 | 0.90 | 0.33 |
| Up Capture | 51% | 52% | 0% | 28% | 22% | 3% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 19 | 31 | 67 | 129 | 394 |
| Down Capture | 61% | 27% | -6% | -56% | 8% | 36% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 15 | 23 | 33 | 59 | 123 | 358 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ELV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELV | 30.0% | 35.0% | 0.80 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 26.6% | 16.3% | 1.26 | 34.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.8% | 12.7% | 0.80 | 10.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | -2.2% | 28.4% | -0.09 | 4.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 52.1% | 20.7% | 1.91 | -0.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 13.9% | 0.08 | 16.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -22.4% | 43.4% | -0.47 | 11.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ELV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELV | 4.0% | 29.5% | 0.15 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.0% | 15.3% | 0.39 | 51.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.0% | 17.1% | 0.57 | 23.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.9% | 0.72 | 3.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.3% | 19.5% | 0.36 | 3.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.1% | 18.9% | -0.05 | 25.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.0% | 51.7% | 0.33 | 10.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ELV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELV | 15.4% | 31.2% | 0.52 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 11.8% | 16.7% | 0.58 | 62.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 44.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.4% | 0.59 | 1.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 14.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 40.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.0% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 7.2% |
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Earnings Returns History
Updated 10/23/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/21/2026 | -1.4% | ||
| 7/15/2026 | -8.5% | -7.8% | -6.5% |
| 4/22/2026 | 0.0% | 10.6% | 20.8% |
| 1/28/2026 | 1.5% | -0.4% | -6.4% |
| 10/21/2025 | -1.2% | -3.3% | -8.3% |
| 7/17/2025 | -12.2% | -13.9% | -14.3% |
| 4/22/2025 | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% |
| 1/23/2025 | -0.1% | -0.5% | -4.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 10 | 12 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 1.7% | 4.5% | 5.4% |
| Median Negative | -4.9% | -3.0% | -4.8% |
| Max Positive | 7.7% | 10.8% | 20.8% |
| Max Negative | -12.2% | -16.4% | -18.1% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/21/2026 | -1.4% | ||
| 7/15/2026 | -8.5% | -7.8% | -6.5% |
| 4/22/2026 | 0.0% | 10.6% | 20.8% |
| 1/28/2026 | 1.5% | -0.4% | -6.4% |
| 10/21/2025 | -1.2% | -3.3% | -8.3% |
| 7/17/2025 | -12.2% | -13.9% | -14.3% |
| 4/22/2025 | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% |
| 1/23/2025 | -0.1% | -0.5% | -4.0% |
| 10/17/2024 | -10.6% | -16.4% | -18.1% |
| 4/18/2024 | 3.2% | 4.9% | 6.9% |
| 1/24/2024 | 1.4% | 4.2% | 8.5% |
| 10/18/2023 | 0.8% | -2.8% | -1.9% |
| 7/19/2023 | 4.4% | 7.2% | 4.8% |
| 4/19/2023 | -5.3% | -4.6% | -4.8% |
| 1/25/2023 | 1.3% | 0.6% | -3.5% |
| 10/19/2022 | 2.0% | 9.6% | -0.4% |
| 7/20/2022 | -7.6% | -5.7% | -1.3% |
| 1/26/2022 | 1.7% | 3.7% | 5.9% |
| 10/20/2021 | 7.7% | 10.8% | 9.1% |
| 7/21/2021 | -1.6% | -1.9% | -4.8% |
| 4/21/2021 | 0.8% | -1.3% | 3.0% |
| 1/27/2021 | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.5% |
| 10/28/2020 | -4.4% | -1.8% | 3.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 10 | 12 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 1.7% | 4.5% | 5.4% |
| Median Negative | -4.9% | -3.0% | -4.8% |
| Max Positive | 7.7% | 10.8% | 20.8% |
| Max Negative | -12.2% | -16.4% | -18.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/21/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/15/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/22/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/06/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/21/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/17/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/17/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/17/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/18/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/18/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/19/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/19/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/15/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/21/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/15/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/22/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/06/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/21/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/17/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/17/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/17/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/18/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/18/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/19/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/19/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/19/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/20/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/20/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/16/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/20/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/21/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/21/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/18/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/28/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/19/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/22/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/21/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Dividend Per Share | Reported | 1.72 | ||||||
| 2026 Operating Cash Flow | Reported | 6.50 Bil | 6.50 Bil | 8.3% | Raised | Guidance: 6.00 Bil for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Diluted EPS | Reported | 22 | 22 | 9.5% | Raised | Guidance: 20.1 for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 29 | 29 | 7.4% | Raised | Guidance: 27 for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS Baseline | Reported | 26.75 | 26.75 | |||||
| 2027 Adjusted Diluted EPS Growth | Reported | 12.0% | 12.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 12.0% for 2027 | ||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/15/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Operating Cash Flow | Reported | 6.00 Bil | 9.1% | Raised | Guidance: 5.50 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Diluted EPS | Reported | 20.1 | 1.3% | Raised | Guidance: 19.85 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 27 | 0.9% | Raised | Guidance: 26.75 for 2026 | |||
| 2027 Adjusted EPS Growth | Reported | 12.0% | ||||||
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/22/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Operating Cash Flow | Reported | 5.50 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.50 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Diluted EPS | Reported | 19.85 | -11.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 22.3 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 26.75 | 4.9% | Raised | Guidance: 25.5 for 2026 | |||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Operating Cash Flow | Reported | 5.50 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Total Operating Revenue | Reported | |||||||
| 2026 GAAP Diluted EPS | Reported | 22.3 | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 25.5 | -15.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 30 for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 9/4/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boudreaux, Gail | President and CEO | Direct | Buy | 7172026 | 367.79 | 2,725 | 1,002,230 | 63,251,198 | Form |
| 2 | Peru, Ramiro G | Direct | Buy | 7172026 | 366.05 | 1,000 | 366,050 | 3,992,873 | Form | |
| 3 | Penczek, Ronald W | CAO & Controller | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 403.16 | 369 | 148,766 | 1,507,818 | Form |
| 4 | Dixon, Robert L JR | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 401.77 | 151 | 60,667 | 4,312,599 | Form | |
| 5 | Penczek, Ronald W | CAO & Controller | Direct | Sell | 5202026 | 403.13 | 1,531 | 617,192 | 1,656,461 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boudreaux, Gail | President and CEO | Direct | Buy | 7172026 | 367.79 | 2,725 | 1,002,230 | 63,251,198 | Form |
| 2 | Peru, Ramiro G | Direct | Buy | 7172026 | 366.05 | 1,000 | 366,050 | 3,992,873 | Form | |
| 3 | Penczek, Ronald W | CAO & Controller | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 403.16 | 369 | 148,766 | 1,507,818 | Form |
| 4 | Dixon, Robert L JR | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 401.77 | 151 | 60,667 | 4,312,599 | Form | |
| 5 | Penczek, Ronald W | CAO & Controller | Direct | Sell | 5202026 | 403.13 | 1,531 | 617,192 | 1,656,461 | Form |
| 6 | Schulman, Amy W | Direct | Sell | 3232026 | 287.50 | 26 | 7,475 | 62,675 | Form | |
| 7 | Kendrick, Charles Morgan JR | EVP & President, Commercial | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 284.92 | 3,196 | 910,604 | 3,359,492 | Form |
| 8 | Collis, Steven H | Direct | Buy | 3062026 | 289.84 | 3,000 | 869,520 | 1,054,728 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 23, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Ground Investment Management LLP | $100.7 Mil | 18.7% | 5 | ADD +5.5% | 13F |
| Brave Warrior Advisors, LLC | $328.6 Mil | 8.1% | 36 | TRIM -10.3% | 13F |
| DKRT Investments Corp. | $27.8 Mil | 7.0% | 48 | ADD +35.7% | 13F |
| Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb L.P. | $406.3 Mil | 6.7% | 50 | Hold | 13F |
| Ranmore Fund Management Ltd | $40.0 Mil | 5.3% | 20 | ADD +20.9% | 13F |
| Focused Investors LLC | $149.2 Mil | 4.9% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Redwood Capital Management, LLC | $24.8 Mil | 3.7% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Firetrail Investments PTY LTD | $9.5 Mil | 3.2% | 28 | ADD +5.1% | 13F |
| Summit Street Capital Management, LLC | $21.7 Mil | 3.1% | 31 | ADD +17.6% | 13F |
| Sector Gamma AS | $12.9 Mil | 3.0% | 42 | ADD +35.1% | 13F |
| Stanley Capital Management, LLC | $17.1 Mil | 2.9% | 40 | Hold | 13F |
| Vulcan Value Partners, LLC | $86.9 Mil | 2.3% | 33 | TRIM -23.2% | 13F |
| Cooperman Leon G | $66.7 Mil | 2.2% | 41 | TRIM -33.1% | 13F |
| Sanders Capital, LLC | $1.7 Bil | 2.1% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Venator Management LLC | $6.0 Mil | 1.4% | 28 | TRIM -25.5% | 13F |
| Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. | $18.2 Mil | 0.6% | 44 | New | 13F |
| SRS Investment Management, LLC | $17.4 Mil | 0.2% | 29 | TRIM -59.5% | 13F |
| Loews Corp | $14.1 Mil | 0.1% | 25 | ADD +33.3% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. | $18.2 Mil | 0.6% | 44 | New | 13F |
| DKRT Investments Corp. | $27.8 Mil | 7.0% | 48 | ADD +35.7% | 13F |
| Sector Gamma AS | $12.9 Mil | 3.0% | 42 | ADD +35.1% | 13F |
| Loews Corp | $14.1 Mil | 0.1% | 25 | ADD +33.3% | 13F |
| Ranmore Fund Management Ltd | $40.0 Mil | 5.3% | 20 | ADD +20.9% | 13F |
| Summit Street Capital Management, LLC | $21.7 Mil | 3.1% | 31 | ADD +17.6% | 13F |
| High Ground Investment Management LLP | $100.7 Mil | 18.7% | 5 | ADD +5.5% | 13F |
| Firetrail Investments PTY LTD | $9.5 Mil | 3.2% | 28 | ADD +5.1% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Knots Management, LLC | $179.3 Mil | 20.7% | 12 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Eminence Capital, LP | $170.8 Mil | 2.7% | 39 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Locust Wood Capital Advisers, LLC | $49.8 Mil | 1.2% | 32 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| North Peak Capital Management, LLC | $48.7 Mil | 5.3% | 9 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Archon Partners LLC | $7.0 Mil | 0.7% | 42 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| SRS Investment Management, LLC | $17.4 Mil | 0.2% | 29 | TRIM -59.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Cooperman Leon G | $66.7 Mil | 2.2% | 41 | TRIM -33.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Venator Management LLC | $6.0 Mil | 1.4% | 28 | TRIM -25.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Vulcan Value Partners, LLC | $86.9 Mil | 2.3% | 33 | TRIM -23.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Brave Warrior Advisors, LLC | $328.6 Mil | 8.1% | 36 | TRIM -10.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanders Capital, LLC | $1.7 Bil | 2.1% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb L.P. | $406.3 Mil | 6.7% | 50 | Hold | 13F |
| Brave Warrior Advisors, LLC | $328.6 Mil | 8.1% | 36 | TRIM -10.3% | 13F |
| Focused Investors LLC | $149.2 Mil | 4.9% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| High Ground Investment Management LLP | $100.7 Mil | 18.7% | 5 | ADD +5.5% | 13F |
| Vulcan Value Partners, LLC | $86.9 Mil | 2.3% | 33 | TRIM -23.2% | 13F |
| Cooperman Leon G | $66.7 Mil | 2.2% | 41 | TRIM -33.1% | 13F |
| Ranmore Fund Management Ltd | $40.0 Mil | 5.3% | 20 | ADD +20.9% | 13F |
| DKRT Investments Corp. | $27.8 Mil | 7.0% | 48 | ADD +35.7% | 13F |
| Redwood Capital Management, LLC | $24.8 Mil | 3.7% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Summit Street Capital Management, LLC | $21.7 Mil | 3.1% | 31 | ADD +17.6% | 13F |
| Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. | $18.2 Mil | 0.6% | 44 | New | 13F |
| SRS Investment Management, LLC | $17.4 Mil | 0.2% | 29 | TRIM -59.5% | 13F |
| Stanley Capital Management, LLC | $17.1 Mil | 2.9% | 40 | Hold | 13F |
| Loews Corp | $14.1 Mil | 0.1% | 25 | ADD +33.3% | 13F |
| Sector Gamma AS | $12.9 Mil | 3.0% | 42 | ADD +35.1% | 13F |
| Firetrail Investments PTY LTD | $9.5 Mil | 3.2% | 28 | ADD +5.1% | 13F |
| Venator Management LLC | $6.0 Mil | 1.4% | 28 | TRIM -25.5% | 13F |
ELV Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Elevance is executing a margin recovery in its core insurance business, with management signaling 2026 as the trough. The faster-growing, higher-margin Carelon services business is becoming a primary profit engine. Conviction rests on a stellar management team delivering its specific 2027 guidance for at least 12% adjusted EPS growth.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Structurally-protected, recurring transactional revenue(Medical Members x PMPM Premiums) + (Fee-Based Members x Admin Fees) + (Carelon Scripts & Services Volume x Price) Management of the Benefit Expense Ratio (Medical Loss Ratio) through pricing discipline, provider contracting, and medical management initiatives.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence points to a successful transition, with management repeatedly raising 2026 guidance and affirming the 2027 growth target, signaling high confidence in the operational turnaround.
- Management affirmed guidance for at least 12% adjusted EPS growth in 2027.
- 2026 adjusted EPS guidance was raised to 'at least $29' from an initial 'at least $25.50'.
- The CarelonRx segment posted a 5.3% operating margin, versus 1.0% for Health Benefits.
- Management explicitly views 2026 as the 'trough' for Medicaid margins, expecting improvement in 2027.
- The company's total shareholder yield is 7.9%.
PRIMARY RISK
Persistent medical cost inflation outpaces government rate increases, preventing the guided 2027 margin recovery. The Health Benefits segment's nine-month operating margin has already compressed to 2.7% from 3.5% a year prior, and top-line growth has slowed to 1.4%.
- The Health Benefits nine-month operating margin fell to 2.7% from 3.5% year-over-year.
- Latest-quarter revenue growth has decelerated to 1.4% year-over-year.
- Total medical membership declined 1.1% from the prior year.
- The company expects to exit additional Medicaid markets over the next 12-18 months.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Total Medical Membership | 44.882 million as of September 30, 2026 - Decelerating | The year-over-year membership decline was driven by attrition in the Medicaid business due to eligibility redeterminations and a significant, deliberate reduction in the Medicare Advantage business. Management characterized the Medicare actions as a strategic "repositioning" of the portfolio to improve profitability and deliver more "sustainable growth over time." |
| Benefit Expense Ratio (Medical Loss Ratio) | 90.6% for Q3 2026 - Improving | The improvement in the benefit expense ratio (a lower ratio is better) was broad-based, with management citing better-than-expected performance in Medicaid, Medicare Advantage, and Individual ACA plans. The CFO specifically attributed the favorability to "recent Medicaid rate actions, disciplined execution in Medicare Advantage, and improved claims experience." |
| CarelonRx Quarterly Adjusted Scripts | 82.6 million (Q3 2026) | Measures the volume of prescriptions processed by the pharmacy services segment, a key driver of CarelonRx revenue. |
| Carelon Services Consumers Served | 91.0 million (Q3 2026) | Represents the number of consumers receiving one or more services from Carelon Services, indicating the reach of its health services capabilities across affiliated and non-affiliated health plans. |
Management Credibility vs. Market Skepticism
BULL VIEW
Bulls trust A-grade management team, which raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance from 'at least $25.50' to 'at least $29' during the year. They believe the guided 2027 recovery is credible and the stock will re-rate as it delivers.
CORE TENSION
Can management's stellar execution, proven by multiple 2026 guidance raises, overcome the market's skepticism, reflected in a -13.0% post-earnings stock drop in July?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The evidence favors the bulls. Management's say-do record is flawless, and they just raised the 2026 baseline from which the 2027 growth will be calculated.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see negative stock reactions after the last two earnings reports as proof the guidance raises are low-quality. They believe underlying Medicaid margin pressure is structural and the 2027 recovery is unlikely to materialize as guided.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
1/25/2027 | Peer Medical Cost Read-Across Watch: UNH commentary on Medicaid and Medicare cost trends, utilization patterns, and rate adequacy for 2027. |
1/26/2027 | Medicaid Margin Recovery Update Watch: Updated 2027 margin outlook for the Medicaid business and commentary on state rate negotiations. |
1/26/2027 | Sustained Revenue Deceleration Watch: Q4 revenue growth figures and the company's full-year 2027 revenue guidance. |
2/3/2027 | Peer CI Earnings Report Watch: Peer Cigna (CI) is scheduled to report earnings. |
2/4/2027 | Peer CNC Earnings Report Watch: Peer Centene (CNC) is scheduled to report earnings. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-10-21 | New Carelon President Named Details: The company announced the appointment of a new President of Carelon, effective December 1, 2026, to lead the segment through its next phase of growth. | -1.4% $440.18 -> $434.13 |
2026-10-21 | Third Quarter Earnings Beat Details: The company reported Q3 2026 results with net income of $1.34 billion, or $6.27 a share. Adjusted diluted EPS guidance for 2026 was raised to at least $29. | -1.4% $440.18 -> $434.13 |
2026-10-01 | Medicare Advantage Plan Announcement Details: The company announced its affiliated health plans will offer 2027 Medicare Advantage plans focused on stability, choice, and personalized support. | -0.6% $388.82 -> $386.43 |
2026-07-15 | Stock Reacts Negatively to Q2 Details: Despite a guidance raise, the two-day stock reaction around the earnings call dated 2026-07-15 was -13.0%, suggesting investor concerns about underlying trends, particularly in Medicaid. | -12.6% $424.94 -> $371.23 |
2026-07-15 | Second Quarter Earnings Beat Details: The company reported Q2 2026 results ahead of outlook, supported by disciplined execution. Full-year adjusted EPS guidance was raised to at least $27.00. | -12.6% $424.94 -> $371.23 |
2026-04-22 | Stock Reacts Positively to Q1 Details: The two-day stock reaction around the earnings call dated 2026-04-22 was 6.0%, indicating a positive market reception to the first quarter results and guidance raise. | +5.5% $325.36 -> $343.39 |
2026-04-22 | First Quarter Earnings Beat Details: The company reported Q1 2026 results ahead of expectations, driven by underlying business strength and improving claims experience. Full-year adjusted EPS guidance was raised to at least $26.75. | +5.5% $325.36 -> $343.39 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: ELV trades at roughly 25% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 11% for the S&P 500 (2.2x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
UNH - UnitedHealth Group
Scale LeaderUNH offers greater scale, with revenue 2.2 times that of Elevance, and a more mature, integrated health services platform. Its 4.8% operating margin suggests superior cost structure and efficiency.
CNC - a business partner
Government Program Specialista business partner demonstrates stronger performance in price-sensitive government programs, where Elevance is currently struggling. a business partner trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of 13.9% far outpaces that of Elevance.
A scale health insurer navigating a margin trough in its core government business while scaling its higher-margin Carelon health services platform as the primary growth and profit engine.
Elevance Health is a dual-track story. The massive Health Benefits segment, particularly Medicaid, is working through a period of significant margin pressure due to elevated medical costs and lagging government rate increases, with management signaling 2026 as a 'trough' year. Simultaneously, the company is rapidly growing its Carelon businesses, which are becoming increasingly important contributors to enterprise earnings and demonstrated higher profitability in the latest quarter. The investment thesis hinges on the company's ability to execute a margin recovery in Health Benefits while continuing to scale the more differentiated and profitable Carelon platform.
Evidence of Medicaid rates becoming better aligned with cost trends, sustained margin improvement in the Health Benefits segment, and accelerated external client wins and adoption for Carelon's risk-based solutions.
Persistent Medicaid margin pressure into 2027, a stall in Carelon's growth trajectory, or an inability to manage enterprise-wide medical cost trends.
Short-term stock price fluctuations around earnings that are not related to the core drivers of Medicaid margin recovery or Carelon's growth.
Repricing Catalyst
The company raising its 2026 earnings guidance and baseline, coupled with reaffirming its ability to deliver at least 12% adjusted EPS growth in 2027, signaling increased confidence in navigating the current margin pressures.
Health Benefits
$169.3B TTM (84% of Total)What It Is
Offers a suite of health plans (PPO, HMO, etc.) and administrative services to Individual, Employer Group (risk-based and fee-based), BlueCard, Medicare, Medicaid, and Federal Employee Program (FEP) members.
Who Pays & How
Employers, government agencies, and individuals pay premiums or fees to access the company's provider networks at favorable rates and to manage the overall cost and quality of healthcare for their members or employees.
Competition
CarelonRx
$44.5B TTM (22% of Total)What It Is
Provides a comprehensive portfolio of pharmacy services, including home delivery, specialty pharmacies, claims adjudication, and formulary management, to its affiliated health plan customers and external customers.
Who Pays & How
Affiliated and unaffiliated health plans pay for pharmacy services to manage specialty drug trends, script volume, and overall pharmacy costs for their members. The segment delegates certain core services to a subsidiary of CVS Health.
Competition
Carelon Services
$29.7B TTM (15% of Total)What It Is
Integrates physical, behavioral, pharmacy, and social-care capabilities to provide whole-health services to both internal and external customers. Services include care management, behavioral health, value-based networks, and analytics-driven services.
Who Pays & How
Internal and external health plans pay for these services to manage complex areas of the healthcare system, improve care quality, and enhance affordability for their members, particularly those with chronic and complex conditions.
Competition
Elevance Health — Investor Video Playlist
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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