Tearsheet

Costco Wholesale (COST)


Market Price (12/20/2025): $855.75 | Market Cap: $379.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail

Costco Wholesale (COST)


Market Price (12/20/2025): $855.75
Market Cap: $379.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 15 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.0 Bil
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -11%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 34x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 26x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 46x
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 22%
  Key risks
COST key risks include [1] a heavy dependence on membership fee income for profitability and [2] global supply chain disruptions that threaten its low-price value proposition.
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Automation & Robotics, Health & Wellness Trends, Show more.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 15 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.0 Bil
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 22%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Automation & Robotics, Health & Wellness Trends, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -11%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 34x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 26x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 46x
5 Key risks
COST key risks include [1] a heavy dependence on membership fee income for profitability and [2] global supply chain disruptions that threaten its low-price value proposition.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

COST Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The requested period for stock movement (August 31, 2025, to December 20, 2025) is in the future. As an AI, I cannot provide real-time or future stock market analysis. However, based on information available leading up to the current date, I can highlight general factors that could influence a company's stock performance if a decline were to occur, drawing from recent trends and analyst commentary related to Costco. Here are potential key points that could contribute to a stock movement such as a -9.2% decline, based on recent financial discussions and retail outlooks: 1. 1. Elevated Valuation Concerns: Despite consistent growth, some analysts have raised concerns about Costco's elevated stock valuation, noting its forward Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio has been around 50x. This high valuation could leave the stock vulnerable to sharp corrections if the company faces any headwinds or if future growth expectations are not perfectly met. 2. 2. Slowdown in Consumer Spending or Economic Headwinds: While the overall retail outlook for 2025 anticipates positive growth in consumer spending, there are still potential risks such as price hikes due to tariffs or a broader economic slowdown. A decline in consumer confidence or a shift in spending away from discretionary items could impact Costco's sales, especially if inflation remains a concern, as some consumers may prioritize price over brand loyalty. 3.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
COST Return33%52%-19%49%40%-6%219%
Peers Return35%28%-21%22%34%1%126%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
COST Win Rate75%75%50%75%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate60%65%40%62%68%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
COST Max Drawdown-5%-17%-26%-1%-2%-6% 
Peers Max Drawdown-18%-6%-30%-9%-5%-17% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WMT, AMZN, TGT, HD, KR. See COST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCOSTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-31.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven46.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven566 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-13.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven15.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven119 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-22.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven28.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven101 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-48.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven94.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven701 days1,480 days

Compare to AMZN, WMT, TGT, DG, BJ


In The Past

Costco Wholesale's stock fell -31.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/7/2022. A -31.5% loss requires a 46.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Costco Wholesale (COST)

Better Bets than Costco Wholesale (COST)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to COST. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.9%-0.9%-0.9%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.3%10.3%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.8%5.8%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.2%-5.2%-5.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BF-B_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025BF-BBrown-FormanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.9%-0.9%-0.9%
CPB_11302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11302025CPBCampbell'sDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-7.5%
ENR_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025ENREnergizerDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.3%10.3%-5.3%
FLO_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FLOFlowers FoodsDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.8%5.8%-1.6%
CLX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.2%-5.2%-5.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Costco Wholesale

Peers to compare with:

Financials

COSTWMTAMZNTGTHDKRMedian
NameCostco W.Walmart Amazon.c.Target Home Dep.Kroger  
Mkt Price855.62114.36227.3598.01345.0062.41170.85
Mkt Cap379.9911.92,418.344.5342.640.9361.2
Rev LTM280,391703,061670,038105,242166,189147,225223,290
Op Inc LTM10,65028,97676,1905,20421,5361,55616,093
FCF LTM9,00315,26313,4813,00913,9272,26911,242
FCF 3Y Avg7,60714,98421,6773,73216,1062,25111,295
CFO LTM14,76340,977121,1376,77417,6496,06216,206
CFO 3Y Avg12,60737,58896,9777,64619,5186,13316,062

Growth & Margins

COSTWMTAMZNTGTHDKRMedian
NameCostco W.Walmart Amazon.c.Target Home Dep.Kroger  
Rev Chg LTM8.3%4.3%10.9%-2.2%7.5%-1.8%5.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg6.7%5.4%11.3%-1.1%1.9%0.2%3.7%
Rev Chg Q8.3%5.8%13.3%-1.6%2.8%0.7%4.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.9%1.4%3.0%-0.4%0.7%0.2%1.1%
Op Mgn LTM3.8%4.1%11.4%4.9%13.0%1.1%4.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.6%4.1%7.9%5.1%13.7%1.9%4.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.0%-0.1%0.3%-0.2%-0.1%-1.6%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM5.3%5.8%18.1%6.4%10.6%4.1%6.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg4.8%5.6%15.8%7.2%12.4%4.1%6.4%
FCF/Rev LTM3.2%2.2%2.0%2.9%8.4%1.5%2.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2.9%2.2%3.5%3.5%10.2%1.5%3.2%

Valuation

COSTWMTAMZNTGTHDKRMedian
NameCostco W.Walmart Amazon.c.Target Home Dep.Kroger  
Mkt Cap379.9911.92,418.344.5342.640.9361.2
P/S1.41.33.60.42.10.31.3
P/EBIT33.827.428.48.415.827.927.6
P/E45.839.834.211.823.551.837.0
P/CFO25.722.320.06.619.46.719.7
Total Yield2.5%3.3%2.9%13.1%6.9%4.1%3.7%
Dividend Yield0.3%0.8%0.0%4.6%2.7%2.2%1.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.3%2.5%1.1%7.0%4.5%5.9%3.5%
D/E0.00.10.10.50.20.60.1
Net D/E-0.00.10.00.40.20.50.1

Returns

COSTWMTAMZNTGTHDKRMedian
NameCostco W.Walmart Amazon.c.Target Home Dep.Kroger  
1M Rtn-3.9%13.9%2.1%13.9%3.8%-7.4%2.9%
3M Rtn-9.9%12.0%-1.8%12.6%-16.5%-4.3%-3.1%
6M Rtn-12.5%19.5%8.4%5.0%-0.1%-12.4%2.4%
12M Rtn-9.9%23.6%1.8%-21.5%-8.2%4.5%-3.2%
3Y Rtn94.7%147.0%166.9%-24.1%18.3%49.7%72.2%
1M Excs Rtn-6.8%11.0%-0.8%11.0%0.9%-10.3%0.1%
3M Excs Rtn-11.3%9.3%-2.2%12.6%-17.8%-4.9%-3.5%
6M Excs Rtn-28.0%3.9%-4.4%-9.5%-15.6%-28.2%-12.6%
12M Excs Rtn-25.4%8.0%-14.6%-35.2%-26.4%-8.9%-20.0%
3Y Excs Rtn13.3%71.6%77.2%-99.7%-59.4%-22.0%-4.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Operation of membership warehouses254,453242,290226,954195,929166,761
Total254,453242,290226,954195,929166,761


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,678,174
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520256.4%
Average Daily Volume2,608,702
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.94
Basic Shares Quantity443,961,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
12/11/2025-0.0%-3.0% 
9/25/2025-2.9%-2.8%-1.0%
5/29/20253.1%0.2%-1.9%
3/6/2025-6.1%-13.2%-10.7%
12/12/20240.1%-3.4%-6.6%
9/26/2024-1.8%-2.9%-1.1%
5/30/2024-0.7%3.3%3.7%
3/7/2024-7.6%-6.8%-9.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131312
# Negative111112
Median Positive1.9%2.4%6.5%
Median Negative-1.4%-3.0%-2.3%
Max Positive6.6%5.5%13.1%
Max Negative-7.6%-13.2%-10.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
113020251217202510-Q 11/23/2025
83120251008202510-K 8/31/2025
5312025605202510-Q 5/11/2025
2282025313202510-Q 2/16/2025
113020241219202410-Q 11/24/2024
83120241009202410-K 9/1/2024
5312024606202410-Q 5/12/2024
2292024313202410-Q 2/18/2024
113020231220202310-Q 11/26/2023
83120231011202310-K 9/3/2023
5312023601202310-Q 5/7/2023
2282023309202310-Q 2/12/2023
113020221229202210-Q 11/20/2022
83120221005202210-K 8/28/2022
5312022602202210-Q 5/8/2022
2282022310202210-Q 2/13/2022

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Wilcox William RichardExecutive Vice President11122025Sell930.132,4002,232,3121,860,260Form