Tri Pointe Homes (TPH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $33.84 | Market Cap: $2.9 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Homebuilding
Tri Pointe Homes (TPH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $33.84Market Cap: $2.9 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Homebuilding
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.3%, FCF Yield is 9.2% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -25% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Green Building Certification, Renewable Integration in Buildings, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.3%, FCF Yield is 9.2% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Green Building Certification, Renewable Integration in Buildings, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -25% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TPH Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Higher Interest Rates and Mortgage Costs: Increased mortgage rates, a direct consequence of higher interest rates, have made home financing more expensive for potential buyers, thereby dampening demand for new homes.
2. Reduced Demand and Affordability Challenges: The combination of higher mortgage costs and rising construction expenses has led to significant affordability issues, causing many potential homebuyers to delay or cancel their purchases.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TPH Return | 11% | 62% | -33% | 90% | 2% | -6% | 118% |
| Peers Return | 30% | 69% | -22% | 85% | 13% | 19% | 322% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TPH Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 50% | 67% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 72% | 40% | 62% | 48% | 38% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TPH Max Drawdown | -61% | -1% | -47% | 0% | -5% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -68% | -7% | -39% | -3% | -12% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DY, TMHC, SKY, MHO, CCS. See TPH Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TPH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -47.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 88.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 190 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -66.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 199.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 197 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -45.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 758 days | 120 days |
Compare to DY, TMHC, SKY, MHO, CCS
In The Past
Tri Pointe Homes's stock fell -47.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/10/2021. A -47.0% loss requires a 88.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TPH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Tri Pointe Homes
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 75.38 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.2 |
| Rev LTM | 4,317 |
| Op Inc LTM | 385 |
| FCF LTM | 224 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 276 |
| CFO LTM | 276 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 322 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.2 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/EBIT | 7.0 |
| P/E | 9.1 |
| P/CFO | 13.0 |
| Total Yield | 11.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.9% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 12.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 25.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -18.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 97.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 12.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 10.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -31.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 33.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West | 2,558 | 2,552 | 2,505 | 2,557 | |
| Central | 947 | 761 | 675 | 469 | |
| Corporate | 942 | 979 | 781 | 673 | 241 |
| East | 422 | 376 | 328 | 284 | |
| Financial services | 46 | 52 | 47 | 39 | 28 |
| Maracay | 382 | ||||
| Pardee Homes | 1,300 | ||||
| Quadrant Homes | 331 | ||||
| TRI Pointe Homes | 930 | ||||
| Trendmaker Homes | 354 | ||||
| Winchester Homes | 291 | ||||
| Total | 4,915 | 4,720 | 4,336 | 4,022 | 3,859 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2212023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7212022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4212022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2182022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |