Tearsheet

Shoe Carnival (SCVL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $17.85 | Market Cap: $488.0 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel Retail

Shoe Carnival (SCVL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $17.85
Market Cap: $488.0 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Apparel Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.0%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -71%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -95%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 53%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -41%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.9%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Experiential Retail.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.0%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -41%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Experiential Retail.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -71%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -95%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 53%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.9%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SCVL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Lowered Full-Year Revenue Guidance in Q2 2025

Shoe Carnival significantly lowered its full-year revenue guidance for fiscal 2025 in its Q2 earnings report on September 4, 2025, dropping the midpoint from $1.19 billion to $1.14 billion. This indicated weaker-than-expected sales performance and signaled a more challenging outlook for investors. 2. Year-over-Year Decline in Q3 2025 Net Sales and Comparable Store Sales

For the third quarter ended November 1, 2025, Shoe Carnival reported a 3.2% year-over-year decrease in net sales to $297.2 million, despite slightly exceeding analyst estimates. Additionally, comparable store sales declined by 2.7%, reflecting ongoing operational challenges in existing locations. 3. Impact of Rebannering Investments on EPS

The company's strategic "One Banner Strategy" to transition Shoe Carnival stores to the Shoe Station brand, while intended for long-term growth, resulted in a negative impact on short-term profitability. Specifically, rebanner investments were estimated to have a negative impact of approximately $0.22 per share on Q3 2025 diluted EPS. The first-year investment for this plan is forecasted to decrease Fiscal 2025 operating income by $20 million to $25 million, resulting in an approximate $0.65 decline in Fiscal 2025 EPS. 4. Pressure on Lower-Income Consumers Affecting Shoe Carnival Banner Sales

The Shoe Carnival banner experienced a 5.2% decline in net sales in Q3 2025, which the company attributed to continued pressure on lower-income consumers. This contrasted with a 5.3% growth in Shoe Station net sales and highlighted a significant divergence in performance between the company's different store formats, indicating weakness in a core segment. 5. Decline in Net Income and Operating Margin in Q3 2025

Shoe Carnival's net income for Q3 2025 fell to $14.6 million, or $0.53 per diluted share, compared to $19.2 million, or $0.70 per diluted share, in the prior year period, representing a $0.17 year-over-year decrease. The operating margin also saw a decline, dropping to 6.3% from 8.1% in the same quarter last year, reflecting reduced profitability.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SCVL Return7%101%-38%29%11%-46%3%
Peers Return29%0%-12%6%21%12%63%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SCVL Win Rate58%67%42%50%42%40% 
Peers Win Rate55%45%42%53%60%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SCVL Max Drawdown-63%-6%-49%-18%-15%-51% 
Peers Max Drawdown-47%-15%-40%-26%-16%-27% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: URBN, SPWH, TJX, ROST, BURL. See SCVL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSCVLS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-55.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven126.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven476 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-64.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven183.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven182 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-50.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven101.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven541 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-82.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven456.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1266 days1480 days

Compare to URBN, SPWH, TJX, ROST, BURL


In The Past

Shoe Carnival's stock fell -55.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/22/2021. A -55.9% loss requires a 126.9% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About Shoe Carnival (SCVL)

Better Bets than Shoe Carnival (SCVL)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SCVL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Shoe Carnival

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SCVLURBNSPWHTJXROSTBURLMedian
NameShoe Car.Urban Ou.Sportsma.TJX Comp.Ross Sto.Burlingt. 
Mkt Price18.5979.192.41150.06178.00248.85114.62
Mkt Cap0.57.10.1167.357.515.711.4
Rev LTM1,1545,8321,20857,92521,49811,0178,425
Op Inc LTM76557-136,4762,580764661
FCF LTM24399-554,0411,679-335211
FCF 3Y Avg43285-364,3581,797124204
CFO LTM66590-375,9352,474804697
CFO 3Y Avg90479136,1452,565877678

Growth & Margins

SCVLURBNSPWHTJXROSTBURLMedian
NameShoe Car.Urban Ou.Sportsma.TJX Comp.Ross Sto.Burlingt. 
Rev Chg LTM-6.4%9.6%-2.9%4.1%1.9%7.6%3.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-3.8%7.5%-6.4%5.3%5.2%7.7%5.2%
Rev Chg Q-7.9%11.3%1.8%6.9%4.6%9.7%5.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.2%2.7%0.4%1.6%1.1%2.2%1.4%
Op Mgn LTM6.6%9.5%-1.1%11.2%12.0%6.9%8.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg8.2%7.6%-0.6%10.7%11.5%6.1%7.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.3%0.3%0.1%0.2%-0.2%0.2%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM5.7%10.1%-3.0%10.2%11.5%7.3%8.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.5%8.9%1.0%11.2%12.5%8.7%8.8%
FCF/Rev LTM2.1%6.8%-4.5%7.0%7.8%-3.0%4.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.6%5.2%-2.8%8.0%8.8%1.4%4.4%

Valuation

SCVLURBNSPWHTJXROSTBURLMedian
NameShoe Car.Urban Ou.Sportsma.TJX Comp.Ross Sto.Burlingt. 
Mkt Cap0.57.10.1167.357.515.711.4
P/S0.41.10.12.41.91.31.2
P/EBIT6.211.0-8.120.614.818.412.9
P/E8.213.7-3.527.720.026.916.8
P/CFO7.811.0-3.623.216.718.213.8
Total Yield12.2%7.3%-28.3%4.9%6.2%3.7%5.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%1.3%1.2%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.2%6.5%-9.7%3.7%4.3%1.2%4.0%
D/E0.70.24.20.10.10.40.3
Net D/E0.50.14.10.10.00.30.2

Returns

SCVLURBNSPWHTJXROSTBURLMedian
NameShoe Car.Urban Ou.Sportsma.TJX Comp.Ross Sto.Burlingt. 
1M Rtn4.3%27.7%1.7%7.2%10.4%-9.9%5.8%
3M Rtn-13.1%18.5%-8.7%7.9%18.4%-15.1%-0.4%
6M Rtn-3.2%12.3%-6.6%17.9%25.6%4.4%8.3%
12M Rtn-45.3%56.2%9.5%21.8%17.1%-12.9%13.3%
3Y Rtn-22.4%168.2%-75.3%95.1%54.6%24.3%39.4%
1M Excs Rtn4.4%27.7%1.7%7.2%10.5%-9.9%5.8%
3M Excs Rtn-33.1%5.6%-25.3%1.4%11.4%-22.8%-10.7%
6M Excs Rtn-17.9%-2.5%-21.3%3.2%10.9%-10.3%-6.4%
12M Excs Rtn-57.0%49.0%-0.9%7.3%2.7%-25.3%0.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-95.5%105.5%-148.8%22.7%-14.7%-45.8%-30.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Non-Athletics590650594400460
Athletics517537660520525
Accessories6369674848
Other67984
Total1,1761,2621,3309771,037


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,600,435
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120254.4%
Average Daily Volume448,129
Days-to-Cover Short Interest8.03
Basic Shares Quantity27,339,000
Short % of Basic Shares13.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
7312025905202510-Q 8/2/2025
4302025606202510-Q 5/3/2025
1312025321202510-K 2/1/2025
103120241206202410-Q 11/2/2024
7312024906202410-Q 8/3/2024
4302024607202410-Q 5/4/2024
1312024322202410-K 2/3/2024
103120231201202310-Q 10/28/2023
7312023901202310-Q 7/29/2023
4302023602202310-Q 4/29/2023
1312023324202310-K 1/28/2023
103120221202202210-Q 10/29/2022
7312022831202210-Q 7/30/2022
4302022603202210-Q 4/30/2022
1312022325202210-K 1/29/2022
103120211129202110-Q 10/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Guthrie Andrea R. 10162025Sell20.202,47750,048493,103Form