Clear Secure (YOU)
Market Price (6/13/2026): $50.25 | Market Cap: $5.0 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Clear Secure (YOU)
Market Price (6/13/2026): $50.25Market Cap: $5.0 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -14% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 49%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 8.7% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Identity Management, and Travel & Leisure Tech. | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 101% Key risksYOU key risks include [1] potential disruption from its key government partner, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -14% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 49%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 8.7% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Identity Management, and Travel & Leisure Tech. |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 101% |
| Key risksYOU key risks include [1] potential disruption from its key government partner, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Clear Secure (YOU) stock has gained about 5% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Performance Exceeded Expectations and Boosted Guidance.
Clear Secure reported robust financial results for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026) on May 6, 2026, significantly surpassing analyst estimates. Revenue increased by 19.7% year-over-year to $253.0 million, while total bookings surged by 40.8% to $291.7 million. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $0.38, outperforming the consensus estimate of $0.31 to $0.36. The company also demonstrated strong profitability with an Adjusted EBITDA margin expanding to 31.9%. Following these strong results, Clear Secure raised its full-year fiscal 2026 free cash flow guidance to at least $465 million, up from its previous outlook of at least $440 million.
2. Sustained Growth in Active Memberships and Strategic Network Expansion.
The company demonstrated continued operational growth, with Active CLEAR+ members increasing by 13.0% year-over-year to 8.2 million in fiscal Q1 2026. Clear Secure also expanded its physical footprint and service offerings, reaching 60 CLEAR+ airports with eGates launched across 43 airports by March 31, 2026. Key strategic initiatives further contributing to this trend include a partnership with Samsung announced on May 26, 2026, to integrate CLEAR ID into Samsung Wallet, and a collaboration with General Dynamics IT (GDIT) for digital identity solutions on May 20, 2026. Additionally, the "Concierge Powered by CLEAR" service launched at Miami International Airport (MIA) on June 1, 2026, further enhancing customer experience and market reach.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 4.4% change in YOU stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 7.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 48.14 | 50.25 | 4.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 901 | 942 | 4.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.1% | 13.0% | 7.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 43.2 | 40.8 | -5.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 98 | 100 | -1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 4.4% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| YOU | 4.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.4% | 20.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 33.3% | 23.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 43.5% change in YOU stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 119.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 35.01 | 50.25 | 43.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 866 | 942 | 8.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.0% | 13.0% | -38.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.6 | 40.8 | 119.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 96 | 100 | -3.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 43.5% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| YOU | 43.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.2% | 15.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 29.5% | 15.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 107.6% change in YOU stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 209.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 24.21 | 50.25 | 107.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 803 | 942 | 17.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.0% | 13.0% | -40.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.2 | 40.8 | 209.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 96 | 100 | -3.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 107.6% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| YOU | 107.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 27.3% | 20.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | 61.0% | 16.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 126.2% change in YOU stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 96.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 22.22 | 50.25 | 126.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 479 | 942 | 96.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 4.2 | 5.3 | 26.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 91 | 100 | -9.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 126.2% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| YOU | 126.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 84.5% | 27.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 129.7% | 20.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| YOU Return | -22% | -12% | -21% | 33% | 35% | 47% | 44% |
| Peers Return | -17% | -53% | 40% | 14% | 35% | 15% | -3% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| YOU Win Rate | 29% | 42% | 33% | 67% | 58% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 28% | 60% | 45% | 45% | 37% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| YOU Max Drawdown | - | -43% | -51% | -33% | -22% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -43% | -66% | -31% | -46% | -35% | -35% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: OKTA, MITK, IDN, AWRE, CRWD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/12/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | YOU | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -27.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 32 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -22.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 405 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -38.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Clear Secure's stock fell 0.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | YOU | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -27.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 32 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -22.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 405 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -38.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Clear Secure's stock fell 0.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Clear Secure (YOU)
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlHere are 1-2 brief analogies for Clear Secure:
It's like Amazon Prime, but for faster passage through airport security and other venues via identity verification.
It's like Carvana or Opendoor, but for streamlining your identity verification to get you through airport lines and into events much faster.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Major products and services of Clear Secure:
- CLEAR Plus: A consumer aviation subscription service providing expedited access through airport security checkpoints.
- CLEAR app: A mobile application designed for new user enrollment and member engagement with Clear Secure's services.
- Reserve powered by CLEAR: A virtual queuing technology that allows users to choose how and where they queue.
- Atlas Certified: An automated solution for verifying professional licenses and certification data across various industries.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Clear Secure (YOU) primarily sells its services to individuals, with its flagship product, CLEAR Plus, being a direct-to-consumer subscription. Based on the company's description, its major customers fall into the following categories:The major customers of Clear Secure (YOU) are primarily individuals, particularly those who subscribe to its services or engage with its digital identity platform. The key categories of individual customers include:
- CLEAR Plus Subscribers: These are individuals who pay an annual subscription fee for expedited access through security checkpoints at airports and other participating venues. This represents the company's largest and most direct individual customer base.
- CLEAR App Users/Members: This category includes individuals who utilize the free CLEAR mobile application for digital identity verification, enrollment in the CLEAR ecosystem, and engagement with its broader network of services. While they may not be direct paying subscribers for all features, they are considered "members" of CLEAR's "member-centric secure identity platform," providing valuable engagement and potential for future subscription conversions.
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Caryn Seidman Becker, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Caryn Seidman Becker has served as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Clear Secure since 2010. She co-founded the company by acquiring its predecessor out of bankruptcy in 2010. Before Clear, from 2002 to 2009, she founded and served as Managing Partner of Arience Capital, an asset management firm focused on various industries. She previously held roles as Managing Director at Iridian Asset Management and Assistant Vice President at Arnhold and S. Bleichroeder. Ms. Seidman Becker has also served on the boards of publicly traded companies including The Home Depot, Inc., Lemonade, Inc., and CME Group, Inc.
Jennifer Hsu, Chief Financial Officer
Jennifer Hsu was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Clear Secure effective March 2025. Prior to joining Clear, she was the Head of Corporate Development and Investor Relations at Chewy from 2021 to 2024. Before Chewy, Ms. Hsu worked in investment banking for 14 years at J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs, where she most recently served as Co-Head of J.P. Morgan's Disruptive Commerce practice.
Michael Z. Barkin, President and Director
Michael Z. Barkin has served as President of Clear Secure since March 2025 and is a member of its Board of Directors since 2019. He previously held the position of Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Vail Resorts, Inc. from 2013 to 2022. Before his tenure at Vail Resorts, Mr. Barkin was a Principal at KRG Capital Partners, a private equity investment firm, from 2006 to 2012, and also had roles in private equity at Bain Capital.
Naba Banerjee, Chief Product & Experience Officer
Naba Banerjee joined Clear Secure as Chief Product & Experience Officer in February 2025. Her prior experience includes serving as a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and, from 2019 to May 2024, as the Global Head of Trust & Safety at Airbnb, Inc.
Lynn Haaland, General Counsel and Chief Privacy Officer
Lynn Haaland has served as Clear Secure's General Counsel and Chief Privacy Officer since July 2024. Before joining Clear, Ms. Haaland was Deputy General Counsel, Chief Privacy Officer, and Chief Compliance and Ethics Officer at Zoom Video Communications, Inc. from 2020 to 2024. Earlier, she served as SVP, Deputy General Counsel, Global Chief Compliance and Ethics Officer, and Chief Counsel, Cybersecurity at PepsiCo, Inc. from 2016 to 2019.
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Key Risks to Clear Secure (YOU)
- Regulatory Risk and Potential Government Competition: Clear Secure operates within highly regulated environments, particularly airport security. Significant risks arise from potential changes in government regulations, such as new identity standards (e.g., REAL ID) or the possibility of government agencies, like the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), accelerating their own biometric or expedited screening technologies (e.g., NextGen platform). Such governmental actions could directly undermine Clear Secure's core business model and value proposition by offering competing services or altering operational requirements, thereby eroding the need for private sector solutions.
- Competition and Member Retention: The market for identity verification and expedited access services is intensely competitive, with Clear Secure facing rivals including government-operated programs like TSA PreCheck and Global Entry, as well as other private biometric identity verification companies. Maintaining and growing its member base is crucial, and the company has experienced concerns regarding declining member retention rates, partly attributed to price increases. Failure to effectively compete or retain existing members could significantly impact revenue growth and overall profitability.
- Cybersecurity and Data Privacy Risks: As a company that handles highly sensitive biometric and personal identity data, Clear Secure faces substantial cybersecurity risks. Any breach of its information technology systems or a failure to adequately protect member data could lead to severe reputational damage, financial losses, legal repercussions, and operational disruptions. The evolving nature of biometric spoofing, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence, also presents a risk if Clear Secure's systems are unable to reliably distinguish between real and synthetic biometrics.
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The ongoing development and potential widespread deployment of advanced biometric and self-service security screening technologies by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA). These government-led initiatives aim to streamline the airport security process, potentially offering expedited identity verification and checkpoint access to a broader traveler base for free, thereby reducing the unique value proposition of Clear Secure's subscription-based CLEAR Plus service.
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Clear Secure (symbol: YOU) operates in several addressable markets with its main products and services.CLEAR Plus
CLEAR Plus is a consumer aviation subscription service that offers expedited access through airport security checkpoints. Its addressable market can be considered in several ways:
- The global airport security market was estimated at USD 19.9 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 45 billion by 2035. North America held the largest share of this market, at 33.5% in 2025.
- The U.S. airport security market alone was valued at USD 3.81 billion in 2025, with a projection to grow to USD 6.98 billion by 2035.
- Clear Secure estimates its target market for CLEAR Plus to be 90 million people in the U.S. Other estimates suggest the potential target market for Clear Secure in the U.S. is approximately 5% to 10% of the population, equating to 16.8 million to 33.6 million people.
- The broader biometrics market, which underlies CLEAR's technology, is projected to reach USD 86.1 billion globally by 2028, growing from USD 47.8 billion in 2023.
Reserve powered by CLEAR
Reserve powered by CLEAR is a virtual queuing technology, primarily used for scheduling airport security screening times.
- The global virtual queuing system market was valued at USD 362.6 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 582 million by 2032. Another projection indicates the global market will grow from USD 657.6 million in 2025 to USD 1,269.4 million by 2034.
- North America held the largest share of the virtual queue management system market at 38%.
- The U.S. virtual queuing system market is projected to be USD 193.6 million in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 360.0 million by 2034.
Atlas Certified
Atlas Certified provides an automated solution for verifying professional licenses and certification data across various industries, falling under the broader identity verification market.
- The U.S. identity verification market is projected to reach USD 4.4 billion in 2025 and grow to USD 16.7 billion by 2034.
- Another report estimates the U.S. identity verification market size at USD 2.9 billion in 2024, with an expected increase to USD 8.9 billion by 2033.
- Globally, the identity verification market size is projected to increase by USD 25.70 billion from 2025 to 2030. North America accounts for a significant portion, approximately 41%, of this global market.
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Clear Secure (YOU) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives:
- Growth in Active CLEAR+ Members: The company expects continued expansion of its subscriber base for the CLEAR Plus service, which provides expedited airport security. Active CLEAR+ Members grew to 7.6 million, up 6.0% year-over-year, and Total CLEAR Members reached 38.0 million, up 31.5% year-over-year. This growth in membership directly contributes to subscription revenue.
- Expansion of Airport Footprint and TSA PreCheck Enrollment: Clear Secure is increasing its presence in airports by expanding existing CLEAR Lanes and opening new ones. The company has expanded to 60 CLEAR+ airports, 340 TSA PreCheck enrollment locations and 37 airports with eGates. Additionally, a key initiative involves scaling the TSA PreCheck enrollment program to 165 locations, including retail partners, which presents an incremental revenue opportunity by broadening the reach of its identity verification services within the travel industry.
- Scaling of the CLEAR1 Enterprise Identity Solutions (B2B Expansion): Clear Secure is strategically expanding its biometric identity platform beyond its core airport service, aggressively scaling its CLEAR1 enterprise offering into new verticals such as healthcare and workforce security. CLEAR1 experienced its largest bookings quarter, more than doubling year-over-year, indicating significant growth in its business-to-business segment.
- Strategic Partnerships and International Market Penetration: Renewed multi-year partnerships, such as with American Express, are expected to strengthen member acquisition and engagement. Furthermore, international expansion is a significant component of Clear Secure's growth strategy, with CLEAR Plus now accessible in the U.K., Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, and plans to onboard additional countries by 2026, thereby broadening its global user base and increasing addressable markets.
- Introduction of New Products and Services: The company plans to expand its "Home to Gate" travel experience and continue progressing on its product and technology roadmaps. These new offerings and enhancements to existing services are designed to improve the member experience and create additional revenue streams.
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Share Repurchases
- In 2025, Clear Secure repurchased 5.3 million shares of its Class A common stock for $126.3 million at an average price of $23.86 per share.
- As of February 25, 2026, approximately $250.3 million remained available under the company's share repurchase authorization.
- During the first quarter of 2024, the company repurchased 4.4 million shares of Class A common stock for $84.9 million.
Share Issuance
- Clear Secure completed its initial public offering (IPO) on June 29, 2021, pricing 13.2 million shares of its Class A common stock at $31.00 per share.
- The IPO generated gross proceeds of approximately $409.2 million, or $470.6 million if the underwriters fully exercised their option to purchase additional shares.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for the full year 2025 amounted to $29.3 million.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 33.35 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.9 |
| Rev LTM | 566 |
| Op Inc LTM | 15 |
| FCF LTM | 241 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 178 |
| CFO LTM | 256 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 189 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 51.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 103.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -2.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 25.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.9 |
| P/S | 4.6 |
| P/Op Inc | 25.1 |
| P/EBIT | 32.8 |
| P/E | 39.0 |
| P/CFO | 17.5 |
| Total Yield | 1.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 17.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 15.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 26.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 28.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 59.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 17.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 22.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 6.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -14.8% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $50.25 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 5.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/30/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -19.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $54.99 | $41.11 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -8.6% | 22.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 58.0% | 60.5% |
| Downside Capture | 160.50 | 88.52 |
| Upside Capture | 138.32 | 148.78 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 20.7% | 20.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.97 | 0.17 | 0.89 | 0.97 | 1.08 | 0.94 |
| Up Beta | 4.09 | -0.69 | -0.42 | 0.81 | 1.10 | 0.96 |
| Down Beta | -5.95 | -5.19 | 0.74 | 0.11 | 0.55 | 0.66 |
| Up Capture | 123% | 126% | 160% | 198% | 212% | 137% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 25 | 36 | 63 | 130 | 382 |
| Down Capture | 208% | 225% | 149% | 85% | 91% | 100% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 59 | 117 | 365 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with YOU | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YOU | 101.1% | 60.3% | 1.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 54.9% | 22.5% | 1.86 | 15.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 24.9% | 12.3% | 1.52 | 20.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 25.5% | 27.4% | 0.81 | -7.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 30.1% | 19.0% | 1.25 | -8.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.5% | 13.5% | 0.69 | 11.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -41.8% | 42.2% | -1.16 | 22.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with YOU | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YOU | 7.3% | 61.9% | 0.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 22.4% | 25.1% | 0.79 | 34.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 38.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.8% | 18.2% | 0.75 | -2.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 19.4% | 0.33 | 3.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.8% | 18.8% | 0.05 | 30.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.6% | 54.4% | 0.44 | 24.6% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with YOU | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YOU | 3.6% | 61.9% | 0.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 25.1% | 24.6% | 0.92 | 34.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 38.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.5% | 16.1% | 0.64 | -2.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.7% | 18.0% | 0.29 | 3.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 30.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.2% | 66.8% | 1.00 | 24.6% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/9/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/6/2026 | 3.7% | -1.9% | -7.3% |
| 2/25/2026 | 39.0% | 46.2% | 64.0% |
| 11/6/2025 | 0.7% | 20.0% | 2.5% |
| 8/5/2025 | 6.2% | 7.1% | 20.0% |
| 5/8/2025 | -7.6% | -4.0% | -0.4% |
| 2/26/2025 | -6.5% | 1.7% | 15.6% |
| 11/7/2024 | -25.8% | -31.2% | -29.6% |
| 8/6/2024 | 24.2% | 34.3% | 53.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 9 |
| # Negative | 7 | 7 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 9.0% | 13.8% | 20.0% |
| Median Negative | -7.0% | -4.0% | -7.3% |
| Max Positive | 39.0% | 46.2% | 64.0% |
| Max Negative | -25.8% | -31.2% | -29.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/02/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/14/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/15/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 6/1/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 268.00 Mil | 269.50 Mil | 271.00 Mil | 10.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 243.50 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Total Bookings | 280.00 Mil | 282.50 Mil | 285.00 Mil | 12.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 250.50 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 465.00 Mil | 5.7% | Raised | Guidance: 440.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/25/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 242.00 Mil | 243.50 Mil | 245.00 Mil | 3.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 235.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Total Bookings | 248.00 Mil | 250.50 Mil | 253.00 Mil | -6.4% | Lower New | Guidance: 267.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 440.00 Mil | 37.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 320.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/11/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McLaughlin, Kyle | EVP, Aviation | Direct | Sell | 6032026 | 56.20 | 8,000 | 449,600 | 1,658,968 | Form |
| 2 | Barkin, Michael Z | President | Direct | Sell | 5292026 | 56.29 | 11,550 | 650,150 | 1,294,332 | Form |
| 3 | Schlegel, Jonathan | Chief Security Officer | Direct | Sell | 5182026 | 59.02 | 4,412 | Form | ||
| 4 | Alclear, Investments, Llc | Direct | Sell | 3062026 | 48.51 | 174,324 | Form | |||
| 5 | Seidman, Becker Caryn | Chief Executive Officer | See footnote | Sell | 3062026 | 48.51 | 174,324 | Form |
YOU Trade Sentinel
AVOID (Score 1-2)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew is significantly below 1.0x, indicating a highly unfavorable risk/reward profile. The long thesis, while supported by strong near-term bookings, is overshadowed by a high-probability, high-impact structural risk from government competition that is already manifesting in weakening retention metrics. The potential upside does not compensate for the risk of the core business model being rendered obsolete.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
High-Beta CompounderThe company exhibits characteristics of a high-growth, subscription-based business with high margins, but faces significant competitive threats that could impact its long-term growth durability, making it a high-beta investment.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The long thesis centers on Clear's ability to offset decelerating core user growth by successfully upselling to higher-ARPU premium tiers and locking in future revenue, as evidenced by accelerating Total Bookings and a strong RPO backlog. This mix shift, combined with the asset-light model, should drive significant operating leverage and free cash flow growth.
- RPO: $350M (+25% YoY)
- Net Revenue Retention (NRR): 105%
- Total Bookings growth re-accelerated to 14.3% in Q3 2025
- Premium membership subscriptions growing +30% YoY, outpacing basic membership growth of +15% YoY
PRIMARY RISK
The primary bear case is that the Transportation Security Administration's (TSA) rollout of its own biometric identity solutions (e.g., Touchless ID, CAT2 scanners) across major airports will structurally erode Clear's core value proposition. As the government-backed alternative becomes faster, more widespread, and is bundled with the lower-cost PreCheck service, the willingness of consumers to pay a significant premium for Clear's separate service will diminish, leading to higher churn and pricing pressure.
- TSA's 'TSA PreCheck Touchless ID' is set to expand to 65 airports in Spring 2026.
- The TSA announced an accelerated deployment of next-generation Credential Authentication Technology (CAT2) scanners to 75 major airports starting in H1 2026.
- Annual CLEAR+ Gross Dollar Retention has already declined to 86.9% in Q3 2025, down 2.1% from the previous year, indicating rising churn.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Annual CLEAR+ Gross Dollar Retention | < 85% | This is the most direct measure of customer churn and value perception. A sustained drop below 85% would be clear evidence that the TSA's competing offerings are eroding the member base. |
| Net New Active CLEAR+ Members (QoQ) | < 50,000 | Sequential member additions have already slowed significantly. A failure to add at least 50,000 net new members indicates the core user acquisition engine in the aviation vertical is saturated or stalling. |
| Total Bookings Growth (YoY) | < 10% | This is the primary leading indicator for the bull thesis. If this forward-looking metric decelerates back into the single digits, it would invalidate the argument that a mix shift can offset slowing user growth. |
Platform Value vs. Government Encroachment
BULL VIEW
Accelerating bookings and expansion into new verticals prove Clear is a valuable identity platform. The TSA threat is overstated for the premium traveler segment.
CORE TENSION
Can Clear's premium brand and platform expansion outrun the TSA's improving, 'good enough' biometric solutions that threaten to make Clear's core service redundant?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The core debate is tied. While Q3 bookings accelerated (+14.3% YoY), Annual Gross Dollar Retention has consistently declined, falling to 86.9% in Q3 2025.
BEAR VIEW
Decelerating member growth and retention prove the core market is saturated. The TSA's new CAT2 scanners will erode Clear's primary value proposition (speed).
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Q2 2026 | DHS 'Final Rule' on 3rd Party Screeners Watch: Final language regarding redundant identity verification mandates for Clear lanes. Any requirement for manual TSA checks invalidates the speed proposition. |
H1 2026 | TSA CAT2 Scanner Performance Reports Watch: Traveler reports and media coverage comparing wait times between new PreCheck CAT2 lanes and existing Clear lanes. |
Feb 2026 & May 2026 | Q4 2025 & Q1 2026 Earnings Reports Watch: Annual Gross Dollar Retention rate. A stabilization or reversal of the declining trend is critical to the bull case. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-08-06 | Q2 2025 Earnings Details: The company reported its second-quarter results. The slight negative reaction suggests the report met but did not significantly exceed investor expectations. | Slight -1.8% pullback $32.28 -> $31.70 |
2025-09-30 | Renewed Regulatory Concerns Details: Stock experienced a sharp sell-off, likely due to renewed investor concerns over potential TSA policy changes that could negatively impact Clear's operations. | Plummeted -8.3% $36.28 -> $33.26 |
2025-11-06 | Q3 2025 Earnings Beat Details: Reported revenue of $229.2M (beat) and EPS of $0.37 (beat). Provided optimistic Q4 outlook with accelerating bookings, driving the stock significantly higher. | Surged +12.7% $31.90 -> $35.95 |
2025-12-12 | DHS Proposes New Rules for 3rd Party Screeners Details: DHS issued a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking targeting third-party screeners. Paradoxically, the stock surged, suggesting the market perceived the initial rules as less restrictive than feared. | Surged +13.3% $36.26 -> $41.08 |
2026-01-15 | TSA Announces Accelerated Tech Rollout Details: TSA announced accelerated deployment of next-gen CAT2 scanners to 75 airports in H1 2026. Despite this direct competitive threat, the stock changed little. | Modest 1.1% gain $33.75 -> $34.13 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock trades with explosive volatility (4.1x S&P). While near-term visibility is high, the eroding moat from government competition and expensive valuation force a conservative sizing until the structural threats are resolved.
Diversification Alternatives
VEEV
SECTORUnlike YOU, VEEV has an extremely wide moat from high switching costs and serves as a regulatory partner, not a target. Its life sciences customer base is non-discretionary.
CRWD
SECTORAvoids YOU's travel concentration and government competition risk. Operates in cybersecurity, a market with powerful structural tailwinds and a diversified enterprise customer base.
Trading at ~7x TTM sales, Clear Secure is shifting from a B2C airport subscription service to a broader B2B/B2G secure identity platform, leveraging its government-certified technology to enter new verticals like healthcare.
Filter all news through the lens of enterprise (CLEAR1) adoption and margin expansion, determining if the company can successfully diversify beyond its consumer travel roots.
Named enterprise customer wins for the CLEAR1 platform (especially in healthcare and finance); bookings growth re-accelerating above 25% YoY; sustained free cash flow guidance above $440M; expansion of the TSA PreCheck enrollment partnership.
Decline in gross dollar retention rates for CLEAR Plus members; regulatory changes at airports that diminish CLEAR's value proposition; major data security incidents; failure to convert CLEAR1 pipeline into significant revenue contribution.
Quarterly fluctuations in active CLEAR Plus member counts — bookings is the better lead indicator; competitor announcements in the general identity space without specific customer wins; short-term travel volatility — the model is driven by annual subscriptions.
Repricing Catalyst
The scaling of the CLEAR1 enterprise identity platform is the primary catalyst. The recent collaboration with Mount Sinai Health System to verify patient and employee identity is a key proof point. Success in this vertical could reframe the company as a high-margin enterprise SaaS provider, justifying a higher valuation multiple than its current consumer travel profile.
Consumer Biometric Identity (CLEAR Plus)
$900800.0B TTM (95% of Total) · 29.1% MarginWhat It Is
CLEAR Plus annual subscription for expedited identity verification at airport security lanes and other venues.
Who Pays & How
7.6 million active members pay an annual subscription (standard price $199/year) to save time in airport security lines. Key acquisition channels include partnerships with American Express (multi-year renewal) and airlines, which offer the service as a premium benefit.
Competition
Enterprise Identity Platform (CLEAR1)
$47400.0B TTM (5% of Total) · 29.1% MarginWhat It Is
CLEAR1: A B2B secure identity platform providing low-code SDKs for identity verification, account authentication, and access management.
Who Pays & How
Enterprises like Mount Sinai Health System pay to integrate CLEAR1 to streamline patient and employee identity verification, aiming to increase digital check-in adoption and reduce staff hours on manual processes. LinkedIn uses it to verify profiles and increase trust on its platform.
Competition
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Application Software Resources |
| Capterra |
| Software Advice |
| InfoWorld |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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