Tearsheet

Clear Secure (YOU)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $39.71 | Market Cap: $3.8 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software

Clear Secure (YOU)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $39.71
Market Cap: $3.8 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Application Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.4%, FCF Yield is 9.0%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.5%, Dist 3Y High is -4.5%
Key risks
YOU key risks include [1] potential disruption from its key government partner, Show more.
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -22%
 
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.92, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17%
 
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cybersecurity, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Identity Management, and Travel & Leisure Tech.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.4%, FCF Yield is 9.0%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cybersecurity, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Identity Management, and Travel & Leisure Tech.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.5%, Dist 3Y High is -4.5%
6 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -22%
7 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.92, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17%
8 Key risks
YOU key risks include [1] potential disruption from its key government partner, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

YOU Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Clear Secure (YOU) experienced a notable increase in its stock value, with several key developments contributing to this movement.

**1. JPMorgan Upgrade and Price Target Increase:** On December 12, 2025, JPMorgan upgraded its recommendation on Clear Secure to "Overweight" from "Neutral" and raised its price target for the stock by 20% to $42 per share. This upgrade, driven by analyst Cory Carpenter, was a significant catalyst, with the stock surging over 13% on December 13, 2025.

**2. Optimism Regarding American Express Partnership Renewal:** A key factor in JPMorgan's upgrade was the expectation that Clear Secure's five-year partnership with American Express, expiring in June 2026, would be renewed on more favorable terms for Clear. This potential for improved terms could significantly contribute to Clear Secure's bookings in the second half of 2026.

**3. Strategic Contract with Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS):** Clear Secure secured a contract with the CMS to integrate its CLEAR1 identity platform into Medicare.gov starting in early 2026. This strategic partnership is seen as expanding Clear Secure's reach beyond airport security into federal healthcare infrastructure, diversifying its revenue streams and boosting investor confidence.

**4. Strong Third-Quarter 2025 Financial Results:** Clear Secure announced robust third-quarter 2025 financial results, with revenue increasing by 15.5% year-over-year to $229.2 million and active CLEAR+ members growing by 7.5% to 7.7 million. This strong financial performance reinforced expectations for continued business expansion.

**5. Expansion into New Sectors and Increased Growth Potential:** Beyond its core airport services, Clear Secure has been expanding its identity verification technology into new sectors. This includes partnerships in the healthcare sector, such as with Tampa General Hospital, and the recent contract with CMS for Medicare.gov. Analysts also noted potential tailwinds from events like the 2026 World Cup and the rollout of eGates, which are expected to drive growth in the broader travel industry and enhance member experience, leading to improved margins.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
YOU Return-12%-21%33%51%
Peers Return127%-17%-53%40%14%41%99%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
YOU Win Rate33%42%33%67%67% 
Peers Win Rate58%58%28%60%45%45% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
YOU Max Drawdown-38%-39%-18%-17% 
Peers Max Drawdown-36%-28%-62%-16%-21%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: OKTA, MITK, IDN, AWRE, CRWD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventYOUS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-73.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven276.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to ADSK, HIT, AIB, BMR, CCC


In The Past

Clear Secure's stock fell -73.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/2/2021. A -73.4% loss requires a 276.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Clear Secure (YOU)

Better Bets than Clear Secure (YOU)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to YOU. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.6%9.6%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.1%10.1%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.5%13.5%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.1%9.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%0.0%
YOU_10312023_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10312023YOUClear SecureDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.4%136.7%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.6%9.6%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.1%10.1%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.5%13.5%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.1%9.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%0.0%
YOU_10312023_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10312023YOUClear SecureDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.4%136.7%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Clear Secure

Peers to compare with:

Financials

YOUOKTAMITKIDNAWRECRWDMedian
NameClear Se.Okta Mitek Sy.Intellic.Aware CrowdStr. 
Mkt Price39.2588.4210.246.722.08470.0224.75
Mkt Cap3.816.20.40.10.0118.12.1
Rev LTM8662,84018022174,565523
Op Inc LTM167122180-7-3929
FCF LTM290895540-61,104172
FCF 3Y Avg23663438-2-31,023137
CFO LTM311912551-61,460183
CFO 3Y Avg25865540-1-31,312149

Growth & Margins

YOUOKTAMITKIDNAWRECRWDMedian
NameClear Se.Okta Mitek Sy.Intellic.Aware CrowdStr. 
Rev Chg LTM17.8%12.1%4.4%14.2%2.7%22.0%13.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg31.0%18.1%7.8%12.9%3.3%31.1%15.5%
Rev Chg Q15.5%11.6%3.6%27.7%33.3%22.2%18.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.7%2.8%0.9%6.3%7.9%5.2%4.4%
Op Mgn LTM19.2%4.3%9.8%0.3%-37.8%-8.6%2.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg9.6%-8.8%7.5%-8.3%-37.1%-4.0%-6.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.4%1.3%-1.8%5.5%4.1%0.1%1.3%
CFO/Rev LTM35.9%32.1%30.8%3.8%-33.1%32.0%31.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg35.7%25.5%22.5%-5.6%-15.8%35.8%24.0%
FCF/Rev LTM33.4%31.5%30.2%1.6%-33.3%24.2%27.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg32.5%24.6%21.8%-10.5%-17.0%28.0%23.2%

Valuation

YOUOKTAMITKIDNAWRECRWDMedian
NameClear Se.Okta Mitek Sy.Intellic.Aware CrowdStr. 
Mkt Cap3.816.20.40.10.0118.12.1
P/S3.75.72.56.22.925.94.7
P/EBIT19.3--2,333.1-7.8-578.65.8
P/E17.783.051.1647.5-9.1-376.034.4
P/CFO10.417.78.1163.8-8.980.914.1
Total Yield8.5%1.2%2.0%0.2%-11.0%-0.3%0.7%
Dividend Yield2.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg9.1%---4.7%-7.1%1.6%-1.6%
D/E0.0--0.00.10.00.0
Net D/E-0.1---0.1-0.4-0.0-0.1

Returns

YOUOKTAMITKIDNAWRECRWDMedian
NameClear Se.Okta Mitek Sy.Intellic.Aware CrowdStr. 
1M Rtn11.7%9.1%18.4%8.6%-6.7%-11.3%8.9%
3M Rtn6.8%-1.8%3.4%25.9%-23.2%5.5%4.5%
6M Rtn60.5%-10.7%7.0%27.9%8.3%-3.1%7.7%
12M Rtn51.2%3.5%-6.3%140.2%37.7%24.9%31.3%
3Y Rtn46.3%30.2%1.1%236.2%15.6%321.5%38.3%
1M Excs Rtn11.0%8.3%17.6%7.9%-7.5%-12.0%8.1%
3M Excs Rtn4.9%-6.9%-2.5%21.6%-25.7%-7.8%-4.7%
6M Excs Rtn48.2%-23.1%-5.4%15.5%-4.0%-15.5%-4.7%
12M Excs Rtn41.9%-3.2%5.6%116.1%25.8%16.6%21.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-21.7%-39.3%-69.6%159.6%-46.8%228.1%-30.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil2024202320222021
Growing and maintaining its secure identity network across multiple offerings in both aviation and614437254231
Total614437254231


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity16,107,539
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-5.3%
Average Daily Volume1,247,018
Days-to-Cover Short Interest12.92
Basic Shares Quantity96,416,451
Short % of Basic Shares16.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/20250.7%20.0%2.8%
8/5/20256.2%7.1%20.0%
5/8/2025-7.6%-4.0%-0.4%
2/26/2025-6.5%1.7%15.6%
11/7/2024-25.8%-31.2%-29.6%
8/6/202424.2%34.3%53.1%
5/8/2024-5.0%-1.5%-1.8%
2/28/20241.0%4.9%14.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive898
# Negative656
Median Positive7.6%13.8%19.4%
Median Negative-6.7%-5.2%-9.6%
Max Positive24.2%34.3%53.1%
Max Negative-25.8%-31.2%-29.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022302202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221114202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022815202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022516202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021330202210-K 12/31/2021