Clear Secure (YOU)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $39.71 | Market Cap: $3.8 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Clear Secure (YOU)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $39.71Market Cap: $3.8 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.4%, FCF Yield is 9.0% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.5%, Dist 3Y High is -4.5% | Key risksYOU key risks include [1] potential disruption from its key government partner, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -22% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.92, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Identity Management, and Travel & Leisure Tech. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.4%, FCF Yield is 9.0% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Identity Management, and Travel & Leisure Tech. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.5%, Dist 3Y High is -4.5% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -22% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.92, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17% |
| Key risksYOU key risks include [1] potential disruption from its key government partner, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
YOU Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Clear Secure (YOU) experienced a notable increase in its stock value, with several key developments contributing to this movement.
**1. JPMorgan Upgrade and Price Target Increase:** On December 12, 2025, JPMorgan upgraded its recommendation on Clear Secure to "Overweight" from "Neutral" and raised its price target for the stock by 20% to $42 per share. This upgrade, driven by analyst Cory Carpenter, was a significant catalyst, with the stock surging over 13% on December 13, 2025.
**2. Optimism Regarding American Express Partnership Renewal:** A key factor in JPMorgan's upgrade was the expectation that Clear Secure's five-year partnership with American Express, expiring in June 2026, would be renewed on more favorable terms for Clear. This potential for improved terms could significantly contribute to Clear Secure's bookings in the second half of 2026.
**3. Strategic Contract with Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS):** Clear Secure secured a contract with the CMS to integrate its CLEAR1 identity platform into Medicare.gov starting in early 2026. This strategic partnership is seen as expanding Clear Secure's reach beyond airport security into federal healthcare infrastructure, diversifying its revenue streams and boosting investor confidence.
**4. Strong Third-Quarter 2025 Financial Results:** Clear Secure announced robust third-quarter 2025 financial results, with revenue increasing by 15.5% year-over-year to $229.2 million and active CLEAR+ members growing by 7.5% to 7.7 million. This strong financial performance reinforced expectations for continued business expansion.
**5. Expansion into New Sectors and Increased Growth Potential:** Beyond its core airport services, Clear Secure has been expanding its identity verification technology into new sectors. This includes partnerships in the healthcare sector, such as with Tampa General Hospital, and the recent contract with CMS for Medicare.gov. Analysts also noted potential tailwinds from events like the 2026 World Cup and the rollout of eGates, which are expected to drive growth in the broader travel industry and enhance member experience, leading to improved margins.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| YOU Return | � | � | -12% | -21% | 33% | 51% | � |
| Peers Return | 127% | -17% | -53% | 40% | 14% | 41% | 99% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| YOU Win Rate | � | 33% | 42% | 33% | 67% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 28% | 60% | 45% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| YOU Max Drawdown | � | � | -38% | -39% | -18% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -36% | -28% | -62% | -16% | -21% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: OKTA, MITK, IDN, AWRE, CRWD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | YOU | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -73.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 276.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to ADSK, HIT, AIB, BMR, CCC
In The Past
Clear Secure's stock fell -73.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/2/2021. A -73.4% loss requires a 276.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to YOU. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.1% | 10.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | 0.0% |
| 10312023 | YOU | Clear Secure | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.4% | 136.7% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.1% | 10.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.5% | 13.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | 0.0% |
| 10312023 | YOU | Clear Secure | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.4% | 136.7% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Clear Secure
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 24.75 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.1 |
| Rev LTM | 523 |
| Op Inc LTM | 9 |
| FCF LTM | 172 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 137 |
| CFO LTM | 183 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 149 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -6.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 31.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 27.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.1 |
| P/S | 4.7 |
| P/EBIT | 5.8 |
| P/E | 34.4 |
| P/CFO | 14.1 |
| Total Yield | 0.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -1.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 31.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 38.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 21.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -30.5% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | 0.7% | 20.0% | 2.8% |
| 8/5/2025 | 6.2% | 7.1% | 20.0% |
| 5/8/2025 | -7.6% | -4.0% | -0.4% |
| 2/26/2025 | -6.5% | 1.7% | 15.6% |
| 11/7/2024 | -25.8% | -31.2% | -29.6% |
| 8/6/2024 | 24.2% | 34.3% | 53.1% |
| 5/8/2024 | -5.0% | -1.5% | -1.8% |
| 2/28/2024 | 1.0% | 4.9% | 14.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 9 | 8 |
| # Negative | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 7.6% | 13.8% | 19.4% |
| Median Negative | -6.7% | -5.2% | -9.6% |
| Max Positive | 24.2% | 34.3% | 53.1% |
| Max Negative | -25.8% | -31.2% | -29.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3022023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8152022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5162022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3302022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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