Clear Secure (YOU)
Market Price (2/28/2026): $48.57 | Market Cap: $4.7 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Clear Secure (YOU)
Market Price (2/28/2026): $48.57Market Cap: $4.7 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.8%, FCF Yield is 6.2% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 122% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% | Key risksYOU key risks include [1] potential disruption from its key government partner, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Identity Management, and Travel & Leisure Tech. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.8%, FCF Yield is 6.2% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Identity Management, and Travel & Leisure Tech. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 122% |
| Key risksYOU key risks include [1] potential disruption from its key government partner, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Financial Performance Exceeding Expectations.
Clear Secure reported robust fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 25, 2026. The company's Q4 revenue of $240.8 million surpassed analyst estimates of $235.7 million by 2.1%, representing a 16.7% year-over-year increase. Adjusted EBITDA reached $79.9 million, significantly beating the consensus of $68.28 million, and the adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 870 basis points year-over-year to over 33%.
2. Optimistic 2026 Financial Guidance and Free Cash Flow Growth.
Management provided strong guidance for 2026, projecting full-year free cash flow of at least $440 million, indicating a minimum of 28% year-over-year growth. This optimistic outlook signaled confidence in future profitability and operational efficiency.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 60.2% change in YOU stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 60.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 30.36 | 48.64 | 60.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 836 | 866 | 3.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.2% | 21.0% | -0.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.1 | 25.8 | 60.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 94 | 96 | -2.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 60.2% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| YOU | 60.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 15.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | -7.7% | 11.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 66.5% change in YOU stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 62.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 29.21 | 48.64 | 66.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 803 | 866 | 7.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.0% | 21.0% | -4.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.9 | 25.8 | 62.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 96 | 96 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 66.5% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| YOU | 66.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.8% | 19.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 5.8% | 12.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 111.2% change in YOU stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 91.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 23.03 | 48.64 | 111.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 735 | 866 | 17.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.9% | 21.0% | 91.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.8 | 25.8 | -3.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 94 | 96 | -2.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 111.2% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| YOU | 111.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.0% | 26.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 20.8% | 21.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 71.9% change in YOU stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 122.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312023 | 2272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 28.29 | 48.64 | 71.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 390 | 866 | 122.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 6.1 | 5.4 | -10.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 83 | 96 | -13.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 71.9% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| YOU | 71.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.0% | 30.2% |
| Sector (XLK) | 108.3% | 22.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| YOU Return | -22% | -12% | -21% | 33% | 35% | 34% | 32% |
| Peers Return | -17% | -53% | 40% | 14% | 35% | -6% | -21% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 1% | 84% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| YOU Win Rate | 29% | 42% | 33% | 67% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 28% | 60% | 45% | 45% | 10% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| YOU Max Drawdown | -38% | -38% | -39% | -18% | -17% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -62% | -16% | -21% | -19% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: OKTA, MITK, IDN, AWRE, CRWD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | YOU | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -73.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 276.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to OKTA, MITK, IDN, AWRE, CRWD
In The Past
Clear Secure's stock fell -73.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/2/2021. A -73.4% loss requires a 276.1% gain to breakeven.
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About Clear Secure (YOU)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Clear Secure (YOU):
- Like Amazon Prime for airport security lines.
- Like an EZ-Pass for airport security checkpoints.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the major products and services of Clear Secure:
- CLEAR Plus: A membership service offering expedited identity verification using biometrics (fingerprints and iris scans) at airports and other secure venues.
- Biometric Identity Platform: The core technology infrastructure that provides secure, touchless identity verification for both physical access points and digital applications.
- CLEAR Health Pass: A digital credentialing service allowing users to securely link and share health information, such as vaccination status, for access to partner venues.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Clear Secure (YOU) Major Customers
Clear Secure (YOU) primarily operates on a Business-to-Consumer (B2C) model, selling direct memberships to individuals rather than selling its core service directly to other companies. While Clear Secure partners with airports, sports stadiums, and other venues, these are partners and distribution channels, not the direct paying customers for the Clear Secure membership service itself.
The company serves the following categories of individual customers:
- Frequent Air Travelers: This category includes individuals who regularly fly for business or leisure and prioritize expedited security screening to save time and reduce stress at airports. They value the efficiency and predictability offered by Clear's dedicated lanes.
- Sports and Entertainment Attendees: Individuals who frequent stadiums, arenas, and other entertainment venues that partner with Clear. These customers seek faster and more convenient entry to events, bypassing general admission lines.
- Consumers Seeking Convenience and Enhanced Experience: This broader category encompasses individuals who value a streamlined, efficient, and potentially more secure experience across various touchpoints, including travel, venue access, and potential future applications of Clear's biometric identity platform. They are willing to pay for premium convenience and a smoother journey.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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Caryn Seidman-Becker Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Caryn Seidman-Becker has served as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Clear Secure since 2010. She co-founded Clear Secure by acquiring the company out of bankruptcy in 2010 with Ken Cornick. Prior to Clear Secure, from 2002 to 2009, she founded and served as the Managing Partner of Arience Capital, a value-oriented asset management firm with over $1 billion in assets under management. She also held roles as Managing Director at Iridian Asset Management and Assistant Vice President at Arnhold and S. Bleichroeder, an investment bank. Ms. Seidman-Becker has been a director of The Home Depot, Inc. since 2022 and previously served on the boards of Lemonade, Inc. (2018-2022) and CME Group, Inc. (2009-2012).
Jennifer Hsu Chief Financial Officer
Jennifer Hsu assumed the role of Chief Financial Officer of Clear Secure in March 2025. Before joining Clear Secure, Ms. Hsu was the Head of Corporate Development and Investor Relations at Chewy. Her earlier career includes senior finance leadership positions at JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs.
Michael Z. Barkin President and Director
Michael Z. Barkin became President of Clear Secure in March 2025 and also serves as a member of its Board of Directors. From 2013 to 2022, Mr. Barkin was the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Vail Resorts, Inc. Prior to his tenure at Vail Resorts, he was a Principal at KRG Capital Partners, a private equity investment firm, from 2006 to 2012, where his responsibilities included managing new acquisitions and overseeing portfolio companies across various sectors. He also previously worked at Bain Capital Partners and Bain & Company.
Lynn Haaland General Counsel and Chief Privacy Officer
Lynn Haaland has served as Clear Secure's General Counsel and Chief Privacy Officer since July 2024. Before joining Clear Secure, Ms. Haaland was the Deputy General Counsel and Chief Privacy Officer at Zoom Video Communications, Inc. from 2020 to 2024, also serving as its Chief Compliance and Ethics Officer from 2020 to 2023. Earlier in her career, she was SVP, Deputy General Counsel, Global Chief Compliance and Ethics Officer, and Chief Counsel, Cybersecurity at PepsiCo, Inc. from 2016 to 2019.
Kyle McLaughlin Executive Vice President, Aviation
Kyle McLaughlin has been the Executive Vice President, Aviation at Clear Secure since August 2023, having previously served as Senior Vice President, Operations since May 2022. From 2018 to 2022, Mr. McLaughlin was the Senior Vice President and then global Chief Executive Officer of Tough Mudder, an adventure entertainment brand, where he managed teams across four continents and guided the company through a strategic acquisition and post-pandemic recovery.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Clear Secure (symbol: YOU) are:
- Regulatory Dependence and Potential for TSA Disruption: Clear Secure operates within a public-private partnership model, making its business heavily reliant on agreements and relationships with governmental bodies, particularly the Transportation Security Administration (TSA). A significant risk is that the TSA could accelerate the development and implementation of its own biometric or expedited screening technologies (like the NextGen platform), which could directly erode the core value proposition of Clear Secure's services. The company's entire airport operational footprint is dependent on its ability to integrate with and enhance existing security checkpoint processes, making any adverse regulatory changes or increased competition from TSA's internal initiatives a major threat.
- Member Retention and Competition: Clear Secure faces ongoing challenges in maintaining and expanding its membership base. The company's core business model is susceptible to threats from competition and declining member retention rates. For instance, the Annual CLEAR+ Gross Dollar Retention rate has shown sequential drops, suggesting that factors like price increases may lead to members questioning the value of the service or choosing not to renew. Some analyses indicate that Clear Secure may struggle to provide sufficient value to customers compared to alternatives like TSA PreCheck, which could compromise its long-term growth potential, especially at higher price points.
- Dependence on the Travel Industry: Clear Secure's business is largely concentrated within the travel industry, making it vulnerable to economic downturns, disruptions, and other factors affecting travel volume. While the company is actively exploring diversification into other areas like enterprise identity platforms and broader applications of biometrics in sectors such as healthcare, events, and hospitality, a substantial portion of its revenue remains tied to airport security. A lack of successful diversification beyond its core airport services could limit its long-term growth and expose it to concentrated market risks.
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Addressable Markets for Clear Secure (YOU)
Clear Secure (YOU) operates a secure identity platform that primarily provides expedited identity verification services.
Main Products and Services:
-
CLEAR Plus (Airport Expedited Security Screening): This service allows members to use predictable entry lanes at airport security checkpoints.
- Market Size (Airport Biometric Services - Global): The global airport biometric service market was valued at approximately USD 34.93 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 146.3 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 15.4% between 2026 and 2035.
- Market Share (North America Airport Biometric Services): North America is expected to dominate the airport biometric service market, accounting for over 63.2% of the revenue share by 2037.
-
CLEAR Plus (Access Control for Other Venues): CLEAR Plus technology has expanded to sports arenas, music venues/festivals, and other large events.
- Market Size (Access Control for Events - North America): North America holds approximately 38% of the global market share for access control for events in 2024, with the United States being a leader.
- Market Size (Crowd Management and Event Security - Global): The global crowd management and event security market, which includes event access control, was valued at USD 1.56 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 16.51 billion by 2037, with a CAGR of around 19.9% from 2025 to 2037.
- Market Size (U.S. Access Control Market - General): The U.S. access control market is valued at USD 4.03 billion in 2024 and is projected to expand to USD 10.3 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 8.87% from 2025 to 2035. Another estimate values the U.S. access control market at USD 2.93 billion in 2025, projected to reach approximately USD 6.28 billion by 2034.
-
Digital Identity and Identity Verification Solutions: Clear Secure also offers B2B solutions (CLEAR1) that extend its secure identity platform to partners.
- Market Size (Digital Identity Solutions - Global): The global digital identity solutions market is estimated at USD 47.36 billion in 2025 and is forecasted to reach approximately USD 203.58 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 17.59% from 2025 to 2034. Another report estimates the market at US$ 41.63 billion in 2024, projected to reach US$ 159.93 billion by 2031.
- Market Size (Digital Identity Solutions - U.S.): The U.S. digital identity solutions market was valued at USD 10.99 billion in 2024 and is expected to be worth around USD 56.69 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 17.80% between 2025 and 2034.
- Market Size (Identity Verification - U.S.): The U.S. identity verification market size was valued at USD 2.9 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 8.9 billion by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 13.20% from 2025-2033. Another projection indicates the U.S. identity verification market size will grow from USD 10.9 billion in 2023 to USD 21.8 billion by 2028.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Clear Secure (symbol: YOU) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives:
- Growth in CLEAR+ Members and Enhanced Member Retention: The company emphasizes increasing its active CLEAR+ member base and improving member retention. Recent earnings reports indicate growth in active members and efforts to optimize dollar retention through strategic pricing initiatives.
- Expansion of Network and Technology (Airports & eGates): Clear Secure is expanding its physical footprint by adding new CLEAR+ airports and TSA PreCheck enrollment locations. The deployment of eGates is also expected to enhance member experience and operational efficiency, contributing to growth.
- Launch of New Products and Services Beyond Airport Security: Clear Secure is diversifying its offerings by introducing new products and expanding use cases for its identity verification platform. This includes the launch of CLEAR Concierge, a premium on-demand service, and CLEAR ID functioning as a REAL ID. The company is also venturing into healthcare with CLEAR1's digital check-in and developing B2B biometric solutions for sports venues and other enterprises.
- International Expansion: Clear Secure is actively pursuing international markets to broaden its total addressable market. Plans include making CLEAR+ accessible to international travelers from countries such as the U.K., Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.
- Strategic Pricing Initiatives: Management has highlighted the positive impact of recent price increases, indicating that optimizing pricing for its CLEAR+ memberships continues to be a factor in revenue growth.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Clear Secure's Board of Directors authorized three separate $100 million increases to its Class A Common Stock share repurchase program on November 8, 2023, March 21, 2024, and August 5, 2024.
- As of August 5, 2024, approximately $100 million remained available under the repurchase authorization.
- In 2023, Clear Secure returned approximately $70 million to shareholders through share repurchases.
Share Issuance
- The company incurred issuance-related costs of $9.038 million in 2021 and $0.297 million in 2022 as a result of its IPO, recorded within additional paid-in capital.
- The number of shares outstanding for Clear Secure has shown an increasing trend, from 73.32 million in 2021 to 96.33 million in 2024.
- As of August 1, 2024, there were 92,249,918 Class A Common Stock shares outstanding.
Capital Expenditures
- Clear Secure's capital expenditures were approximately $28.15 million in 2021, $31.36 million in 2022, and $25.56 million in 2023.
- Estimated capital expenditures are projected to be $12.01 million for 2024 and $21.63 million for 2025.
- Future capital expenditures are expected to primarily focus on building enhancements to the functionality of the current platform, equipment, leasehold improvements, and office expansion and relocation.
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| 01302026 | ROP | Roper Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.3% | -7.3% | -15.0% |
| 01302026 | TDC | Teradata | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.6% | 6.6% | -8.7% |
| 01302026 | CVLT | CommVault Systems | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.0% | 1.0% | -5.1% |
| 01302026 | NTNX | Nutanix | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -2.3% | -2.3% | -6.3% |
| 01302026 | FICO | Fair Isaac | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -11.1% | -11.1% | -16.1% |
| 10312023 | YOU | Clear Secure | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.4% | 136.7% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 31.61 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.7 |
| Rev LTM | 526 |
| Op Inc LTM | 13 |
| FCF LTM | 175 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 138 |
| CFO LTM | 187 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 149 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 20.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -6.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 32.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 27.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.7 |
| P/S | 4.5 |
| P/EBIT | 24.9 |
| P/E | 33.5 |
| P/CFO | 14.6 |
| Total Yield | 0.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -16.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -16.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -11.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 29.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 66.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -14.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -19.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 8.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 0.3% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $48.64 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 4.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/30/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $35.36 | $32.39 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 37.6% | 50.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 91.3% | 57.9% |
| Downside Capture | 0.42 | 60.71 |
| Upside Capture | 206.31 | 130.27 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 15.2% | 29.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.71 | -0.86 | 0.11 | 0.65 | 0.72 | 0.98 |
| Up Beta | 2.58 | 0.99 | -0.31 | 1.53 | 1.02 | 0.96 |
| Down Beta | 0.24 | -1.56 | -0.79 | 0.27 | 0.41 | 0.76 |
| Up Capture | -25% | -88% | 86% | 62% | 70% | 102% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 15 | 23 | 56 | 125 | 376 |
| Down Capture | 160% | -53% | 51% | 49% | 60% | 105% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 25 | 37 | 67 | 123 | 373 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with YOU | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YOU | 125.6% | 57.8% | 1.59 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 20.8% | 27.5% | 0.67 | 24.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.5% | 19.4% | 0.66 | 28.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 81.3% | 25.7% | 2.29 | -3.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 13.4% | 16.9% | 0.58 | 3.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.3% | 16.6% | 0.25 | 22.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -20.2% | 44.9% | -0.37 | 22.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with YOU | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YOU | 6.3% | 62.4% | 0.35 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 16.7% | 24.8% | 0.61 | 35.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.6% | 17.0% | 0.63 | 39.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.5% | 17.1% | 1.12 | -1.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.6% | 19.0% | 0.44 | 4.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 18.8% | 0.18 | 31.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.5% | 57.0% | 0.30 | 24.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with YOU | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YOU | 3.1% | 62.4% | 0.35 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 22.5% | 24.2% | 0.85 | 35.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 39.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.3% | 15.6% | 0.82 | -1.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.7% | 17.6% | 0.41 | 4.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.6% | 20.7% | 0.28 | 31.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.2% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 24.7% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | 0.7% | 20.0% | 2.8% |
| 8/5/2025 | 6.2% | 7.1% | 20.0% |
| 5/8/2025 | -7.6% | -4.0% | -0.4% |
| 2/26/2025 | -6.5% | 1.7% | 15.6% |
| 11/7/2024 | -25.8% | -31.2% | -29.6% |
| 8/6/2024 | 24.2% | 34.3% | 53.1% |
| 5/8/2024 | -5.0% | -1.5% | -1.8% |
| 2/28/2024 | 1.0% | 4.9% | 14.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 9 | 8 |
| # Negative | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 7.6% | 13.8% | 19.4% |
| Median Negative | -6.7% | -5.2% | -9.6% |
| Max Positive | 24.2% | 34.3% | 53.1% |
| Max Negative | -25.8% | -31.2% | -29.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/02/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/14/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/15/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/16/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/30/2022 | 10-K |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wiener, Adam | Direct | Sell | 1052026 | 35.00 | 14,000 | 490,000 | 5,797,190 | Form | |
| 2 | Seidman, Becker Caryn | Chief Executive Officer | See footnote | Sell | 12162025 | 40.87 | 500,000 | 20,435,652 | 91,960 | Form |
| 3 | Alclear, Investments, Llc | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 40.87 | 500,000 | 20,435,652 | 91,960 | Form | |
| 4 | Wiener, Adam | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 40.00 | 8,000 | 320,000 | 7,185,360 | Form | |
| 5 | Haaland, Lynn | GC & Chief Privacy Officer | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 41.00 | 15,532 | 636,812 | 636,853 | Form |
YOU Trade Sentinel
AVOID (Score 1-2)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew is significantly below 1.0x, indicating a highly unfavorable risk/reward profile. The long thesis, while supported by strong near-term bookings, is overshadowed by a high-probability, high-impact structural risk from government competition that is already manifesting in weakening retention metrics. The potential upside does not compensate for the risk of the core business model being rendered obsolete.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
High-Beta CompounderThe company exhibits characteristics of a high-growth, subscription-based business with high margins, but faces significant competitive threats that could impact its long-term growth durability, making it a high-beta investment.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The long thesis centers on Clear's ability to offset decelerating core user growth by successfully upselling to higher-ARPU premium tiers and locking in future revenue, as evidenced by accelerating Total Bookings and a strong RPO backlog. This mix shift, combined with the asset-light model, should drive significant operating leverage and free cash flow growth.
- RPO: $350M (+25% YoY)
- Net Revenue Retention (NRR): 105%
- Total Bookings growth re-accelerated to 14.3% in Q3 2025
- Premium membership subscriptions growing +30% YoY, outpacing basic membership growth of +15% YoY
PRIMARY RISK
The primary bear case is that the Transportation Security Administration's (TSA) rollout of its own biometric identity solutions (e.g., Touchless ID, CAT2 scanners) across major airports will structurally erode Clear's core value proposition. As the government-backed alternative becomes faster, more widespread, and is bundled with the lower-cost PreCheck service, the willingness of consumers to pay a significant premium for Clear's separate service will diminish, leading to higher churn and pricing pressure.
- TSA's 'TSA PreCheck Touchless ID' is set to expand to 65 airports in Spring 2026.
- The TSA announced an accelerated deployment of next-generation Credential Authentication Technology (CAT2) scanners to 75 major airports starting in H1 2026.
- Annual CLEAR+ Gross Dollar Retention has already declined to 86.9% in Q3 2025, down 2.1% from the previous year, indicating rising churn.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Annual CLEAR+ Gross Dollar Retention | < 85% | This is the most direct measure of customer churn and value perception. A sustained drop below 85% would be clear evidence that the TSA's competing offerings are eroding the member base. |
| Net New Active CLEAR+ Members (QoQ) | < 50,000 | Sequential member additions have already slowed significantly. A failure to add at least 50,000 net new members indicates the core user acquisition engine in the aviation vertical is saturated or stalling. |
| Total Bookings Growth (YoY) | < 10% | This is the primary leading indicator for the bull thesis. If this forward-looking metric decelerates back into the single digits, it would invalidate the argument that a mix shift can offset slowing user growth. |
Platform Value vs. Government Encroachment
BULL VIEW
Accelerating bookings and expansion into new verticals prove Clear is a valuable identity platform. The TSA threat is overstated for the premium traveler segment.
CORE TENSION
Can Clear's premium brand and platform expansion outrun the TSA's improving, 'good enough' biometric solutions that threaten to make Clear's core service redundant?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The core debate is tied. While Q3 bookings accelerated (+14.3% YoY), Annual Gross Dollar Retention has consistently declined, falling to 86.9% in Q3 2025.
BEAR VIEW
Decelerating member growth and retention prove the core market is saturated. The TSA's new CAT2 scanners will erode Clear's primary value proposition (speed).
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Q2 2026 | DHS 'Final Rule' on 3rd Party Screeners Watch: Final language regarding redundant identity verification mandates for Clear lanes. Any requirement for manual TSA checks invalidates the speed proposition. |
H1 2026 | TSA CAT2 Scanner Performance Reports Watch: Traveler reports and media coverage comparing wait times between new PreCheck CAT2 lanes and existing Clear lanes. |
Feb 2026 & May 2026 | Q4 2025 & Q1 2026 Earnings Reports Watch: Annual Gross Dollar Retention rate. A stabilization or reversal of the declining trend is critical to the bull case. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-08-06 | Q2 2025 Earnings Details: The company reported its second-quarter results. The slight negative reaction suggests the report met but did not significantly exceed investor expectations. | Slight -1.8% pullback $32.28 -> $31.70 |
2025-09-30 | Renewed Regulatory Concerns Details: Stock experienced a sharp sell-off, likely due to renewed investor concerns over potential TSA policy changes that could negatively impact Clear's operations. | Plummeted -8.3% $36.28 -> $33.26 |
2025-11-06 | Q3 2025 Earnings Beat Details: Reported revenue of $229.2M (beat) and EPS of $0.37 (beat). Provided optimistic Q4 outlook with accelerating bookings, driving the stock significantly higher. | Surged +12.7% $31.90 -> $35.95 |
2025-12-12 | DHS Proposes New Rules for 3rd Party Screeners Details: DHS issued a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking targeting third-party screeners. Paradoxically, the stock surged, suggesting the market perceived the initial rules as less restrictive than feared. | Surged +13.3% $36.26 -> $41.08 |
2026-01-15 | TSA Announces Accelerated Tech Rollout Details: TSA announced accelerated deployment of next-gen CAT2 scanners to 75 airports in H1 2026. Despite this direct competitive threat, the stock changed little. | Modest 1.1% gain $33.75 -> $34.13 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock trades with explosive volatility (4.1x S&P). While near-term visibility is high, the eroding moat from government competition and expensive valuation force a conservative sizing until the structural threats are resolved.
Diversification Alternatives
VEEV
SECTORUnlike YOU, VEEV has an extremely wide moat from high switching costs and serves as a regulatory partner, not a target. Its life sciences customer base is non-discretionary.
CRWD
SECTORAvoids YOU's travel concentration and government competition risk. Operates in cybersecurity, a market with powerful structural tailwinds and a diversified enterprise customer base.
Trading at ~7x TTM sales, Clear Secure is shifting from a B2C airport subscription service to a broader B2B/B2G secure identity platform, leveraging its government-certified technology to enter new verticals like healthcare.
Filter all news through the lens of enterprise (CLEAR1) adoption and margin expansion, determining if the company can successfully diversify beyond its consumer travel roots.
Named enterprise customer wins for the CLEAR1 platform (especially in healthcare and finance); bookings growth re-accelerating above 25% YoY; sustained free cash flow guidance above $440M; expansion of the TSA PreCheck enrollment partnership.
Decline in gross dollar retention rates for CLEAR Plus members; regulatory changes at airports that diminish CLEAR's value proposition; major data security incidents; failure to convert CLEAR1 pipeline into significant revenue contribution.
Quarterly fluctuations in active CLEAR Plus member counts — bookings is the better lead indicator; competitor announcements in the general identity space without specific customer wins; short-term travel volatility — the model is driven by annual subscriptions.
Repricing Catalyst
The scaling of the CLEAR1 enterprise identity platform is the primary catalyst. The recent collaboration with Mount Sinai Health System to verify patient and employee identity is a key proof point. Success in this vertical could reframe the company as a high-margin enterprise SaaS provider, justifying a higher valuation multiple than its current consumer travel profile.
Consumer Biometric Identity (CLEAR Plus)
$900800.0B TTM (95% of Total) · 29.1% MarginWhat It Is
CLEAR Plus annual subscription for expedited identity verification at airport security lanes and other venues.
Who Pays & How
7.6 million active members pay an annual subscription (standard price $199/year) to save time in airport security lines. Key acquisition channels include partnerships with American Express (multi-year renewal) and airlines, which offer the service as a premium benefit.
Competition
Enterprise Identity Platform (CLEAR1)
$47400.0B TTM (5% of Total) · 29.1% MarginWhat It Is
CLEAR1: A B2B secure identity platform providing low-code SDKs for identity verification, account authentication, and access management.
Who Pays & How
Enterprises like Mount Sinai Health System pay to integrate CLEAR1 to streamline patient and employee identity verification, aiming to increase digital check-in adoption and reduce staff hours on manual processes. LinkedIn uses it to verify profiles and increase trust on its platform.
Competition
External Quote Links
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