Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -15%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -118%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -143%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -84 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -498%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Show more.
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 15x
2   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -82%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -48%
3   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -71%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -83%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -64%
5   Key risks
LPRO key risks include an ongoing securities lawsuit and accounting scandal for allegedly misrepresenting its risk models and loan performance [1], Show more.
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -15%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -118%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -143%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -84 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -498%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 15x
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -82%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -48%
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -71%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -83%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -64%
8 Key risks
LPRO key risks include an ongoing securities lawsuit and accounting scandal for allegedly misrepresenting its risk models and loan performance [1], Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

LPRO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the stock movement for Open Lending (LPRO) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:

1. Significant Net Loss in Q3 2025: Open Lending reported a net loss of $7.6 million for the third quarter of 2025, a notable decrease from a net income of $1.4 million in the same quarter of 2024. This shift to a loss likely negatively impacted investor sentiment.

2. Impact of Non-Recurring Expense: The net loss was primarily driven by an $11 million non-recurring expense incurred due to an amendment in a reseller agreement with Allied Solutions, which extinguished certain compensation rights. This one-time charge heavily weighed on the company's profitability for the quarter.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
LPRO Return232%-36%-70%26%-30%-70%-83%
Peers Return
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LPRO Win Rate83%33%17%50%33%42% 
Peers Win Rate52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LPRO Max Drawdown-5%-39%-73%-15%-46%-86% 
Peers Max Drawdown 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PRAA, SUIG, AXP, COF, SOFI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventLPROS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-86.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven649.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-11.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven12.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven8 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-12.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven14.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven534 days120 days

Compare to PRAA, SUIG, AXP, COF, SOFI


In The Past

Open Lending's stock fell -86.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/30/2021. A -86.7% loss requires a 649.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Open Lending (LPRO)

Better Bets than Open Lending (LPRO)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to LPRO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Open Lending

Peers to compare with:

Financials

LPROPRAASUIGAXPCOFSOFIMedian
NameOpen Len.PRA Sui American.Capital .SoFi Tec. 
Mkt Price1.7416.821.77375.61239.5025.2721.05
Mkt Cap0.20.60.2259.9153.029.615.1
Rev LTM171,173670,42848,2313,3222,248
Op Inc LTM-84209----62
FCF LTM-14-37318,94420,845-3,179-6
FCF 3Y Avg36-85116,90421,063-4,67119
CFO LTM-12-33321,13922,335-2,951-5
CFO 3Y Avg38-81118,80122,259-4,50620

Growth & Margins

LPROPRAASUIGAXPCOFSOFIMedian
NameOpen Len.PRA Sui American.Capital .SoFi Tec. 
Rev Chg LTM-82.3%11.6%135.1%9.1%25.4%34.0%18.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-48.3%7.3%31.4%11.6%13.4%33.4%12.5%
Rev Chg Q3.0%10.8%169.7%10.8%54.4%38.6%24.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.3%2.7%43.7%2.6%12.7%8.8%6.5%
Op Mgn LTM-497.5%17.8%-----239.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-153.3%9.8%-----71.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-37.6%-0.3%-----19.0%
CFO/Rev LTM-70.9%-2.8%46.5%30.0%46.3%-88.8%13.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg12.2%-8.5%37.9%29.2%55.1%-204.8%20.7%
FCF/Rev LTM-83.1%-3.2%46.5%26.9%43.2%-95.7%11.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg6.6%-8.9%37.9%26.3%52.2%-211.1%16.4%

Valuation

LPROPRAASUIGAXPCOFSOFIMedian
NameOpen Len.PRA Sui American.Capital .SoFi Tec. 
Mkt Cap0.20.60.2259.9153.029.615.1
P/S14.70.541.93.32.89.36.3
P/EBIT-3.4------3.4
P/E-1.7-1.8-5.521.896.048.310.1
P/CFO-20.7-18.590.110.96.1-10.5-2.2
Total Yield-60.3%-56.9%-18.3%4.6%2.0%2.1%-8.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.9%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.0%--10.7%36.3%-50.4%6.8%
D/E0.7--0.30.40.10.3
Net D/E-0.2--0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

Returns

LPROPRAASUIGAXPCOFSOFIMedian
NameOpen Len.PRA Sui American.Capital .SoFi Tec. 
1M Rtn11.5%5.1%-0.6%10.1%19.1%-6.5%7.6%
3M Rtn-18.3%0.7%-56.4%12.1%6.6%-6.9%-3.1%
6M Rtn-17.1%14.9%-27.4%22.3%64.5%22.3%
12M Rtn-73.5%-23.7%-26.0%33.9%51.7%26.0%
3Y Rtn-75.1%-48.3%-166.5%180.0%444.6%166.5%
1M Excs Rtn10.8%4.3%-1.3%9.3%18.4%-7.3%6.8%
3M Excs Rtn-24.4%-4.1%-62.9%8.9%3.3%-11.5%-7.8%
6M Excs Rtn-29.5%2.5%-15.0%9.9%52.1%9.9%
12M Excs Rtn-80.7%-31.4%-14.6%20.4%44.4%14.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-143.4%-118.3%-79.4%90.3%399.4%79.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single segment117    
Claims administration and other service fees 9753
Profit share 901336053
Program fees 81764437
Total11718021610993


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single segment29    
Total29    


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single segment22    
Total22    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,404,171
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202534.5%
Average Daily Volume691,616
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.48
Basic Shares Quantity118,173,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/2025-9.9%0.6%3.7%
8/6/20255.1%0.9%5.6%
3/31/2025-57.6%-64.3%-55.1%
11/7/2024-12.6%-6.5%-7.9%
8/8/20240.5%-2.0%1.6%
5/7/20245.3%18.7%31.4%
2/27/2024-8.6%-15.5%-22.8%
11/7/2023-10.4%-9.7%2.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101012
# Negative10108
Median Positive5.7%8.4%11.6%
Median Negative-11.5%-12.6%-18.6%
Max Positive24.6%24.3%42.3%
Max Negative-57.6%-64.3%-55.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024331202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021